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2011 Worldview
Top Macrotrends to Watch
February 2011 Presented by the Global View Team

Our Global Reach

Agenda
The Factors Affecting Global Consumers: A STEEP Analysis The Shift Common ground: Taking Control Developed vs. Developing: Parallel worlds, parallel lives Key Takeaways

The Forces Affecting Global Consumers A STEEP Analysis

Society

The retirement bomb

Demographic imbalances begin to bite as postwar generations in the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Japan and Korea begin to claim benefits

Questioning education
As governments in countries like France and Italy implement reforms and cut budgets, more wonder if the cost translates into brighter career prospects

Left: Iconoculture image; right: Flickr.com/photos/thomaspetermueller image

Technology

The world in our hands

Mobile devices assert their status as the empowering center of the connected universe in both developed and developing societies

Cloud and crowd

The Net and the network become persistent angels on the shoulder of the global consumer a digital spare brain of infinite size and memory

Left: Flickr.com/photos/eenar_6 image; right: photo courtesy of Luciana Stein, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Brazil

Economy
A tale of two roads: Emerging vs. Developed

Environment

Water, water anywhere

Worldwide droughts and contaminated water supplies focus attention on safety and scarcity and on management and conservation as key challenges

Greenstreaming
Powered by government stimulus programs and rising consumer demand, sustainable energy goes from trend to policy

Left: Flickr.com/photos/IRRI_Images image; right: Flickr.com/photos/J.R.Stuart image

Politics

Same stuff, different day

Hope for real reform dwindles as politics as usual persists in many developed markets same faces, same arguments, same ideas

Lame ducks and hot zones

Divided governments and leaders facing serious challenges lead to paralysis or populist uprising

Left: GlobalPoliticalAwakening.blogspot.com; right: Criticalapp.com

The Shift

Around the World in 10 Macrotrends

The Shifting Global Landscape

2010
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Friends and Family SustainAbilities Dollars and Sense Technomorphing En Vogue Wellville MultiMe Ready, Set, Go! Joie de Vivre Oh, Baby! 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

2011
Dollars and Sense Friends and Family Technomorphing Culture Shock Ready, Set, Go! Mindful Matters Gross Natl Happiness Control Freak Get Real Cultural ID

Transformers
SustainAbilities Joie de Vivre Mindful Matters Gross National Happiness
Going from maintaining to smart consumption

Going from petite treats to open, shared fun

Oh, Baby!
En Vogue

Going from subversive sexiness to the new proper

Culture Shock
Get Real Cultural ID Control Freak

Going from surface to substance

MultiMe Wellville
Going from prevention to security

Going from fluid identity to new tribalism

The Hyper-Engaged Consumer

Consumer as researcher analyst advocate expert pundit evangelist portfolio manager judge and jury

Clockwise, from top left: iTunes image; Groupon.com image; eFitnessNow.com image; TheSmartStylist.com image; ConsumerReports.org image; GreenLAGirl.com image

Values Shift
aspiration reality reality, confidence, hope family balance reality security

affluence
innovation luxury

security
control thrift

balance
innovation, connectivity savvy

2008

2009

2010

sustainability

2011

conservation

sustainability

control connectivity/ innovation

convenience
health individuality trust

practicality
wellness family/ community empowerment

simplicity
health/wellness family/ community integrity, identity

health/wellness
practicality confidence

Two values landscapes (at least)

Developed*
1. reality 2. balance 3. family 4. control 5. security 6. connectivity 7. responsibility 8. sustainability 9. conscience 10. practicality

Developing**
1. family 2. connectivity 3. balance 4. health 5. security 6. innovation 7. savvy 8. control 9. confidence 10. reality

* Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, UK, US ** Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey

And two macrotrend landscapes (at least)

Developed*
1. Dollars and Sense 2. Friends and Family 3. Gross Natl Happiness 4. Technomorphing 5. Mindful Matters 6. Culture Shock 7. Get Real 8. SustainAbilities 9. Ready, Set, Go! 10. Control Freak

Developing**
1. Dollars and Sense 2. Technomorphing 3. Friends and Family 4. Ready, Set, Go! 5. Culture Shock 6. Control Freak 7. Cultural ID 8. Beauty Mark 9. En Vogue 10. Wellville

* Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, UK, US ** Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey

Globally, similarities and differences

Global, i.e., Developed and Developing
Dollars and Sense Technomorphing Ready, Set, Go! Friends and Family Culture Shock Control Freak

Developed*
Gross Natl Happiness Mindful Matters Get Real SustainAbilities

Developing**
Cultural ID Beauty Mark En Vogue Wellville

* Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, UK, US ** Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey

Common Ground: Taking Control

BabyBearTechnology.com image

A Global Culture Shock

A global atmosphere of social and cultural uneasiness is emerging as indigenous institutions, rituals, customs and beliefs are challenged.
VirtualTourist.com image

Culture Shock
France endured crippling protests in late 2010 as millions pushed back against the raising of the minimum retirement age from 60 to 62 Brazilians live in a state of constant alert, as rising levels of violence devastate the countrys sense of security Chinese consumers are finally waking up to the issue of online privacy

Pushing back against a world out of control

Clockwise, from top left: Flickr.com/photos/william-hamon image; Tianya image; Flickr.com/photos/Marcelo Freixo 50123 image; IM.qq.com image

The high suicide rate in Korea is another big issue. According to government data, the suicide rate per 100,000 hit 31 in 2009. This is a 19.3% increase from the previous year, and the highest level in the world. Cases of suicide among seniors, females and youths are increasing rapidly.
Hankyoreh, 9 September 2010

A World of Control Freaks

Consumers on the prowl for total control of environments, property, time, safety and wellbeing.
Emptees.com image

Control Freak
Russia: Self-serve phone store appeals to independent shoppers Many Mumbaikars brought home 2011... at home
Do it my way or Ill do it myself

Demanding Argentinean parents want value-added sitters

Clockwise, from top left: Tele2.ru image; Iconoculture image; photo courtesy of Juliana Medrano, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Argentina; photo courtesy of Maria Corsino, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Italy

As mindfulness becomes more of a priority for Canadians, they are using tools to simplify and inform themselves and control their lives and environments. The major way this presents itself in Canada is through technology. The aspiration for the Canadian consumer to control as much as possible in their lives is relevant because there are so many systems they feel are out of their control.
Michelle Auer, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Canada, 1 Dec 2010

Developed vs. Emerging

Megauploadd.com image

Gross National Happiness

Mindful Matters

Get Real

The Developed World Reprioritizes

Enforced privation and values shifts have encouraged consumers to reevaluate, reprioritize, and reset their life goals and modus vivendi

Reprioritization in the Developed World

Pre-recession
splurging spontaneous short-sighted consumption
Lush Life En Vogue Funster

Recession
slowed slashed shrunken consumption
Dollars and Sense SustainAbilities

Post-recession
sensible streamlined smart consumption
Mindful Matters Gross Natl Happiness Get Real

Reprioritization in the Developed World

The Peoples Supermarket offers Londoners more than groceries. Its open seven days a week and offers members a 10% discount plus a say in how the store is run and which products it stocks. Great rooms arent designed in a day. Ethan Allen is getting the word out in a new campaign that espouses a slow-mo interior design process. Yoxi.tv aim to alter the course of fast food in America via YouTube, elements of crowdsourcing and an American Idol-style competition. Participants make videos of their vision for a better fast food nation.

The WellManaged Lifestyle

Clockwise, from top left: ThePeoplesSupermarket.org image; EthanAllen.com image; FoodCycle.org.uk image; Yoxi.tv image

In a way [Mindful Matters] has taken over from Dollars and Sense and is, to my mind, a more refined version of this more basic expression of the frugal, counting-pennies way of thinking. Mindfulness is a much broader and yet in a way more definite way to describe the way consumers in Australia are not just looking to cut back and save a dollar wherever they can, but they are instead more mindful or conscious than they once were about where, how and, most importantly, why they are spending.
Francesca Haisley, Iconoculture Cultural Fluent, Australia, 3 Dec 2010

KFC. Changing for China. Creating the New Fast Food.

The Developing World Asserts its Pride

The active recognition, affirmation, and celebration of cultural affiliations we are born into, as well as the ones we choose, is thriving in the developing world.
VirtualChina.org image

Cultural ID in the Emerging World

From
catching up emulation Westernization

To
identity expression innovation isolation

Lush Life En Vogue Cultural Fusion

Cultural ID My/Our Lush Life My/Our En Vogue

Cultural ID: Why

Positivity about national identity and rising role on the world stage:
Beijing Olympics, Shanghai Expo Brazil World Cup 2014 Russia awarded World Cup for 2018

Negativity/concerns about the influence of other countries

Muslim immigration into Russia

Changing definition of self

From fluid identity to new tribalism

Top:ChinaDaily.China.com image; RadioFreeBritain.blogspot.com image

Cultural ID: Different Drivers

Value security freedom change patriotism Rank #3 (Russia) #6 (India) #38 (Brazil) #26 (China) Global rank #19 #34 #74 #84

SOURCE: Iconoculture Quant Survey W1, 2010 BASE SIZE: Min. 1,000 per country, online FIGURES: Show rank-position of each value out of a total of 90 values, based on Top-2 box scores

Cultural ID in the Emerging World

Masha and the Bear, a new animated Russian TV series loosely based on a traditional Russian fairytale, is a hit among kids ages 3 to 9 and their parents. On July 26, at least 1,000 people staged a peaceful but loud protest in Guangzhou over perceived threats to their dialect. A national debate about dominant vs. marginalized cultures has ignited.

Getting back to me

To compete with global fast food chains, a popular chain of eateries in Bangalore, Empire Restaurants, has introduced the take-away thali.

Clockwise, from top left: Animaccord.ru image; Sina.com.cn image; Za-lentu.ru image; Flickr.com/photos/haynes image

Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways
The global recovery is taking different pathways in developed and developing countries. This divergence is also readily apparent in the underlying values and lifestyle behaviours of consumers in different parts of the world, although there are also some unifying forces that seem to be at play everywhere. Across both developed and developing economies, marketers would do well to
Remember that frugality is still a key concern Facilitate relationship building with family and friends Push technology into more and more areas of our lives Offer convenient solutions as our lives stay busy Expect hyper-engaged consumers to micromanage their lives and push back against a world out of control

Key Takeaways
One size does not fit all in the fragmented global economy of 2011.

Marketing to consumers in developed markets will need to recognize a shift in emphasis. Products will rarely be musthaves; marketers will have their work cut out even to make them should-considers.
Selling approaches in the developing world will need to evolve:
- Powerful cues such as cool, status and style will continue to motivate - But look to shift the global-local balance toward the local wherever possible

Valeria Piaggio
VP, Consumer Strategist Global View vpiaggio@iconoculture.com

Jeff Yang
VP, Consumer Strategist Global View jyang@iconoculture.com

Nick Chiarelli
Director, Consumer Strategist Global View nchiarelli@iconoculture.com