Security Threat Assessment

Session Outline
Threat vs. Risk Threat Assessment

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Threat vs. Risk

Threat:
a stated intention to inflict injury, damage, or other hostile action on someone Generally outside an organizations control

Risk
A chance or possibility of danger, loss, injury, or other adverse consequences Can be reduced and managed (Session 7)

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Threat vs. Risk

Therefore:

Risk = Threat + Vulnerability + Criticality

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Threat vs. Risk

Vulnerability Level of exposure to damage Security countermeasures aim to reduce: Vulnerability

Reduce Risk

Reduce Incidents
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Threat vs. Risk

Criticality Importance of an asset should a security incident occur considering:
Importance of its function Exposure of customer/staff to physical risk Economic significance of a structure

Will determine where you focus your resources

Insurance type approach

Vulnerable points have high criticality

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Threat Assessment
Little can be done to influence threat In order to prevent security incidents you need to know what are the threats present in your operational environment You need to identify the potential threats Once identified, threats must be assessed through analysis Then you determine vulnerability It will ultimately reduce your risk factor

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Threat Assessment
The purpose of the Threat Assessment analysis is to continually provide accurate threat-related information to base an informed business decision or recommendation. Principles of Threat Assessment Analysis:
Identify potential risk factors Communicate risk factors Coordinate solutions to avert risks Monitor risk factors

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Threat Assessment
Seven components of Threat Assessment Analysis Perform the threat assessment Establish the decision structure Apply the results Monitor effectiveness Information precision Resource credibility Levels of threat

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Threat Assessment
Job Description/Main Tasks Research threat information for all locations where there are operations Consolidate and analyze research prior to it being included in the Threat Assessment Analysis Provide analysis for Security to distribute Provide briefings to Security and other groups as necessary Conduct special assignments as required by the Director of Aviation Security
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Threat Assessment
Establish Decision Communicate with your respective Governmental Intelligence agency regarding specific threat information Develop recommendations for airline employees travelling abroad by location and by area of the world

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Threat Assessment
Apply the Results Once research is gathered, what next?
Research is reported in a formal document Research is updated daily Threat Assessment Analysis is communicated daily Proactive Process Information is provided to frontline staff

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Threat Assessment
Apply the Results The formal report should contain:
Security Assessment Risk Rating Country/gateway security assessment rating Country/Gateway Profiles Chronology of threat/risk-related events Operational changes (ceased air operations, additional procedures, etc.) Political Stability/History Socio-economic Stability/History Logistics Terrorist groups Anti-Government sentiment history Crime statistics Regional threat-related concerns
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Threat Assessment
Monitoring Effectiveness Once the assessment and recommendations are made the work is not done Is the Assessment accurate? Are the additional measures put in place appropriate? Constant re-assessment of measures/threat

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Threat Assessment
Information Resources National Intelligence reports IJET Daily Intelligence Summary Air Security International: Hot Spots (ASI) Control Risk Group Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) Embassy and Regional Security Officers (RSO) Station Manager and Staff in the region Regional Newspapers Media Sources Personal Contacts in Region
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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat Many options exist 3-5 Levels
Odd or even? Baseline must be achievable Guarded Elevated Severe Critical

1-Minimum 2-Low 3-Medium 4-High 5-Very High

Each level leads to a pre-determined set of measures Set measures for each security control

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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat (example) 1 Minimum Risk Stable political infrastructure and economic system
Low rate of unemployment

Strikes and demonstrations are rare No known insurgent or terrorist groups

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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat (example) 2 Low Risk Stable political infrastructure and economic system
Some unemployment

Low crime rate Strikes and demonstrations are usually nonviolent and well-coordinated Rare instances of domestic terrorist activity but not threatened by international terrorism Anti-government groups present with little or no impact
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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat (example)
3 Moderate Risk
Somewhat stable political infrastructure andeconomic system Unemployment and rising inflation cause some instability Violent crimes do occur Petty crimes are common Threatening crimes are usually limited to urban areas or specific parts of the country Strikes and demonstrations can be disruptive and violent May have a variety of organized anti-government and domestic terrorist groups Small cells of international terrorist but incidents of terrorism are not common

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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat (example)
4 High Risk
Unstable political infrastructure and economic system High rates of unemployment and inflation Violent and petty crimes are common Random acts of violence occur Strikes and demonstrations are common and usually violent Anti-government Domestic terrorist and insurgent groups are active and wellorganized Bombings Violent acts against the government, local and international interests International terrorist groups exist and are active Involved in cross-border warfare
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Threat Assessment
Levels of Threat (example)
5 Very High Risk
Lack a political infrastructure and the economy is unstable high rate of unemployment High rate of corruption High rate of violent and petty crimes General state of lawlessness exists in most urban and remote areas Many active domestic terrorist or rebel groups Areas of the country maybe controlled by rebel factions International terrorist operations are well-organized and active Large demonstrations are common and violent Anti-government Cross-border and internal warfare present
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Threat Assessment
Threat Management Matrix (example)
Measure
Passenger Screening (Where centralised) Passenger Screening (At Departure Gate)

Baseline (Level 1)
Search all departing passengers by hand or screen them with metal detection equipment before access is allowed into the Security Restricted Area. A continuous random search of passengers who do not cause metal detectors to alarm.

Intermediate Threat (Level 2)

As Baseline plus: -Continuous searching of passengers by hand (or by approved imaging technology equipment) at the departure gate where airport facilities permit, otherwise these searches must be carried out at another suitable location. -To facilitate such additional passenger screening air carriers should consider earlier closure of check-in/gate operations for each flight

High Threat (Level 3)

-Search all departing passengers again at the departure gate by hand or screen them with metal detection equipment before boarding the aircraft. -Continuous searching of passengers by hand (or by approved image technology equipment) who have been screened by metal detection equipment. -To facilitate such additional passenger screening air carriers should consider earlier closure of check-in/gate operations for each flight

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Threat Assessment
Threat and Risk Analysis:
Environment and Crime Analysis Claim Experience Other Exposure or Loss Assessments

Determines
Physical Security Requirements Staffing Requirements Unique Security Requirements

Assessment of :
Effective Security Options Related Costs

= Security Measures Put In Place

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Questions?

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