POLLING MEMORANDUM

By Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies Research

Wenzel Strategies conducted a live operator telephone survey of likely Republican primary election voters statewide in Indiana regarding the race for the partys nomination for U.S. Senate. The survey was conducted March 14-16, 2012, and included 678 respondents. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.74 percentage points.

The telephone survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters in Indiana shows that incumbent Richard Lugar holds a slight lead over challenger Richard Mourdock, 45% to 39%, with 15% yet undecided with seven weeks left before the May 8, 2012 primary election. Lugar is seen in a favorable light by 53% of primary voters, while 34% hold an unfavorable opinion of him. Mourdock is seen favorably by 31%, while 19% said they have an unfavorable opinion of him, with the balance not knowing enough about Mourdock to have formed an opinion about him. While 24% said they have a very favorable opinion of Lugar, 19% said they have a very unfavorable opinion of him. While Mourdock is less well-known than Lugar, among those who do know him, twice as many (18%) hold a very favorable opinion of him as hold a very unfavorable opinion of him (9%). Among TEA Party conservatives the largest philosophical bloc in the survey - 44% hold a favorable opinion of Mourdock, while 34% hold a favorable view of Lugar. While moderates and traditional conservatives favor Lugar over Mourdock in the ballot test, Mourdock outpaces Lugar among TEA Party conservatives. Among moderates, Lugar leads, 68% to 20%. Among traditional conservatives, Lugar leads, 54% to 31%. But among TEA Party conservatives, Mourdock leads, 57% to 26%. Mourdocks support is more firm, as 65% of his supporters said they are firm in their choice, compared to 54% of Lugars supporters who said the same thing. Among all who said they are firm in their choice, the race is essentially a dead heat, as Mourdock leads, 51% to 49% for Lugar. Among those who said they might change their minds before they vote, Lugar leads, 59% to 41%. The survey includes all those voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary election. Under Indiana election law, voters identify themselves as to party registration at the time they request their ballot and so receive the partisan ballot that they request. Because of this, this survey includes some self-identified unaffiliated voters and a very small number of self-identified Democrats.
8. If the election for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator from Indiana was today, and the candidates were Richard Mourdock and Richard Lugar, for whom would you vote? SENATE BALLOT TEST Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent MOURDOCK LUGAR Valid UNDECIDED Total 104 678 15.3 100.0 15.3 100.0 100.0 266 308 39.2 45.4 39.2 45.4 39.2 84.7