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lot size In 1930 W.Leontieff developed a linear programming model representing the entire United status economy. Active research works were done during World War II in Great Britain and United States of America.
DEFINITION BY DCLARKE
Operations Research is defined as the art of winning wars without actually fighting.
DEFINITION BY T.L.SASTRY
O.R. is the art of giving bad answers to problems where otherwise worse answers are given.
In order to arrive at an optimal solution to the problems in O.R., first we have to construct a model. Once a project is selected, we have to describe the problem as a model. The model should describe all the features of the problem. We have to express the description of the problem in a mathematical formulation. This formulation has not be done satisfying all the assumptions of the problem.
situation we have to formulate the problem into concrete mathematical representation in the form of a curve, graph or equations. Models, could be classified as iconic model, analogue models and symbolic model.
ADVANTAGES A iconic model is concrete. It is easy to construct the model. It is easy study the model then the system itself. DISADVANTAGES
This model is not suited for further manipulation. It cannot be used to study the changes in the operation of the system. It is not possible to make any modification of the model. Adjustment with changing situations cannot be done in this model.
ANALOGUE MODEL
In an analogue model, one set of properties is used to represent another set of properties. After analysing the model for decision making the results of the analysis can be re-interpreted in terms of the original system. For example, Contour lines on a map are analogues of elevation as they represent the size and fall of heights, Graphs are analogues as distance is used to represent a wide variety of variables such as time, percentage, weight, etc. It is easier to manipulate the analogue model. But it is less specific and less concrete.
SYMBOLIC MODEL
Symbolic models employ a set of mathematical symbols and functions to represent the decision variables and their functions to describe the behavior of the system. Almost all the models in O.R. are symbolic model.
ADVANTAGES
These models are most abstract and most general. These models are amicable for experimental manipulation. They yield reasonably good results to the real life problem. A good model should have the following characteristics : It should be capable of taking into account new formulations with having any significant change in its frame. The assumptions should be well defined and the number of assumptions should be as small as possible. The assumptions should be simple and coherent. Only a limited number of variables should be used. It should be acceptable to parametric treatment.
ADVANTAGE OF A MODEL
It is a description of a physical problem. It gives a systematic approach to a problem and is subject to logical treatment. It is easy to make decisions based on a model. If a model is built on a broad based assumption, it is easy to modify it according to new situations. Model help us finding avenues for new research and improvement in a system.
LIMITATION OF A MODEL
Models are only an attempt in describing a system and should be taken to be as absolute representation of a system. Model constructed is valid only if all the assumptions of the model are true in the system for which the model is constructed.
NETWORK ANALYSIS
CPM was developed in 1957 by J.E. Kelly of Remington and M.R Walker of Dupont to aid in the scheduling of routine plant overhaul, maintenance and construction work. This method differentiates between planning and scheduling. Planning refers to the determination of activities that must be accomplished and the order in which such activities should be performed to achieve the objectives of the project.
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PERT was developed in the late 1950s by the US Navy Special Projects Office in operation with the management consulting firm of Booz , Allen and Hamilton. The technique received substantial favourable publicity for its use in the engineering and development program of the Polaris missile, a complicated project that had 250 prime characters and over 9000 sub characters. But now this technique is very popular in the hands of project planner and controller of various departments in government and in industry. In PERT, we usually assume that the time to perform the activity is uncertain and as such three time estimates are used.
and certain assumptions that may have been made in planning the project. By incorporating the time required for completing each of the activities in the network, the project duration as well as the criticality of the activities are found. At this stage it is also possible to compute the probability of completing the project or a part of the project by a specified time.
SCHEDULING The scheduling computations give the earliest and the latest allowable start and finish time for each activity, and as a by product, they identify the critical path through the network, and indicate the amount of slack time may associated with the non critical paths. TIME COST TRADE OFFS If the scheduled time to complete the project as determined in step 3 satisfactory, the project planning and scheduling may be complete However, if one interested in determining the cost of reducing the project completion time. Then time cost trade-offs of activity performs time must be considered for those activities on the critical and near critical path(s). RESOURCE ALLOCATION The feasibility of each schedule must be checked with respective manpower and equipment requirements. Establishing complete feasibility of a specific schedule may require replanning and rescheduling or time-cost trade-offs. Hence a final solution may require the performance of a number of cycles of steps 3, 4 and 5. PROJECT CONTROL When the network plan and the schedule have been developed to a satisfactory extent, they are repaired to final form for use in the field. The project is controlled by checking progress against the schedule, assigning and scheduling manpower and equipment, and analysing the effects of delays.
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The probability distribution of times for completing an event can be approximated by the normal distribution due to the control limit theorem. Thus the probability of completing the project by schedule time(TS) is given by: Prob (z<(Ts-Te)/) the standard normal variate is given by, Z=(Ts-Te)/e Where Te = Expected completion time of the project. e = Number of the standard deviations the scheduled time lies from the expected time. (i.e) the standard deviations of the scheduled time. Using the commutative normal distribution table, the corresponding value of the standard normal variate is read off. This will give the require probability of completing the project on schedule time.
i.
Two activities should not be identified by the same completion events, and
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ii.
Activities must be represented by their symbols are by the corresponding ordered pair of starting completion events.
Notes are numbered to identify an activity uniquely Tail node should be lower than the head node, of an activity. Between any pair of nodes, there should be one and only one activity, however more than one activity may emanate from and terminate to a node. Arrows should be kept straight and not curved or bent.
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ACTIVITY
All projects may be viewed as being composed of operations or tasks called activities, which require the expenditure of time and resources for the accomplishment. An activity as depicted by a single arrow ( ) on the project
network. The activity arrows are called arcs. The activity arrow is not scaled, the length of the activity time is only a matter of convenience and clarity, and does not represent important of time. The head of the arrow shows the sequence or flow of activities. An activity cannot begin until the completion of the preceding activities. It is important that activities be defined so that beginning and end of each activity can be identified clearly.
PREDECESSOR ACTIVITY
Activities that must be completed immediately prior to the start of another activity are called predecessor activities.
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SUCCESSOR ACTIVITY
Activities that cannot be started until one or more of the other activities are completed, but immediately succeed them are called successor activities.
CONCURRENT ACTIVITY
Activities which can be accomplished concurrently are known as concurrent activities. It may be noted that an activity can be a predecessor or successor to an event or it may be concurrent with one or more of the other Activities.
EVENT
An Event represent a specific accomplishment in the project and takes place at a particular instant of time, and does not, therefore, consume time or resources. An event in a network is a time oriented reference point that signifies the end of the activity and the beginning of another. Events are usually represented in the project network by circles (o). The event circles are called nodes. Therefore, a major difference between activities and events is that activities represent the passage of time where as events are point in time. All activity arrows must begin and end with event nodes as shown below
Start event
Activity
Finish event
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MERGE EVENT
Where more than one activity comes and joins, the event is known as merge event
BURST EVENT
When more than one activity leaves an event, the event is known as burst event.
Merge event
Burst Event
DUMMY ACTIVITY
In most projects many activities can be performed concurrently or simultaneously. It is possible that two activities could be drawn by the same beginning and end events, In situations where two are more activities can be performed concurrently, the concept of dummy activity is introduced to solve this problem. Therefore there will be only one activity between two events.
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An activity which does not consume either any resource or time is known as dummy activity. A dummy activity represented by dotted line in the network diagram.
Predecessor
Activity
Successor
Activity
Dummy activity
conceivably take. This however does not include major catastrophies like labour strikes, acts of God unrest, etc.
EST- It means Earliest start time for an activity represent the time at which an
activity begins at the earliest.
EFT- EFT means Earliest finish time of an activity is it earliest start time +
(plus) the required time to perform the activity.
LFT- LFT means latest finish time. Latest finish time of an activity represent the
latest by which an activity must be completed without delaying the completion of project.
LST- Latest start time for an activity is the Latest finish time -(minus) the
activity duration methods.
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project. These are computed by reversing the method of calculation used for earliest event times.
PERT-ALGORITHM
The various step involved in developing PERT network for analyzing any project are summarized below Make a list of activities that make up the project including immediate Predecessors. Making use of step1 sketch the required network. Denote the most likely time by tm, the optimistic time to and pessimistic time by tp. Using beta distribution for each activity duration the expected time t e for te = (to+tm+tp)/6 Tabulated various time (i.e) expected activity times, earliest and latest times and mark the EST and LFT on the arrow diagram. Determine the total float for each activity by taking the difference between EST & LFT. Identify the critical activities and connect them with the beginning node and the ending node in the network diagram by double line arrows. The critical path and expected date of completion of the project Using the values of tp and to to compute the variance (2) of each activity . This is done with the following formula, 2
= [(tp-to)/6]2
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Compute the standard normal deviate Due date Expected date of completion
Zo
project variance
Use standard normal tables to find the probability p(z zo) of completing the project within the scheduled time, where Z ~ N(0,1).
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