Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2011
Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
Enrollment in the Everett school district declined byy 62 students between October 2010
and October 2011. And similar to last year the overall number was very close to the projection,
but elementary enrollment came in lower than expected and high school enrollment slightly
higher. Middle school enrollment was also slightly lower than projected.
The trends of the past 2 years point to the slowing growth trends that are affecting all of
Snohomish County. The unemployment rate is higher in Snohomish and Pierce County than in
King County and new home construction and sales are well below the trends that were seen
between 2000 and 2007
2007. As a result K-12
K 12 public school enrollment in Snohomish County
declined by over 700 students in the past year. The only districts that saw a net gain in their
enrollment were Mukilteo, Lake Stevens and Lakewood. Even private school enrollment in the
county was down between 2009 and 2010.
At the elementary level, the District is beginning to see the effects of the decline in new
home construction and sales. Although the District did see continuing enrollment growth in
Woodside and Cedar Woods, other south end neighborhoods, like Mill Creek and saw declines
in their enrollment after several years of strong growth. Elementary enrollments in the central
and northern parts of the District were mostly in line with projections.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011
15645
16823
16295 16500
16895
17457
18486 18337 18229 18094 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Oct91
Oct- Oct92
93
Oct- Oct97
98
Oct99
Oct00
Oct- Oct04
05
Oct- Oct06
07
Oct11
15.0%
110000
100000
93142
96709
99992
109517 108442
107092 106303 106648 107925 108586 108251 109036 109136
105038 106360
103539
102512
13.0%
11.0%
90000
80000
9.0%
70000
7.0%
60000
5.0%
50000
40000
3.8%
3.4%
2.5%
3.0%
2.5%
30000
1.0%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
0.7%
20000
0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
-0.3%
-0.7%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.9%
%
10000
0
1.0%
-1
1.0%
0%
-3.0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Enrollment
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Percent Change
NetChangeinEnrollmentforSnohomishCountySchool
Net
Change in Enrollment for Snohomish County School
DistrictsOct10toOct11
Monroe
220
Sultan
157
157
Stanwood
139
Edmonds
138
GraniteFalls
117
Arlington
97
Marysville
72
Everett
63
Darrington
g
21
Snohomish
12
Index
SkillsCenter
21
L k
Lakewood
d
25
LakeStevens
78
Mukilteo(W/OSkillsCNTR)*
179
500
400
300
200
100
100
200
300
6000
5000
4437 4527
4749
5051
4796 4932
5278
5364 5531
6291 6157
5653
5164 5332
5351
4000
3000
2000
1000
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
Similar
Si
il to last
l year, enrollment
ll
at the
h high
hi h school
h l level
l l was better
b
than
h expected.
d This
Thi
trend has been seen in a number of Districts throughout the Puget Sound Region. It may well
reflect the impact of a poor economy (with more students opting to stay in school) or the
beneficial effects of dropout prevention programs. In either case, this trend is projected to
continue
i
into
i
the
h future
f
resulting
l i in
i less
l decline
d li at the
h high
hi h school
h l level
l l than
h was projected
j
da
few years ago.
Since 2007 ppopulation
p
and K-12 enrollment g
growth has been concentrated in King
g
County. There is less movement overall, due to the collapse of the real estate housing bubble
and fewer people are opting to move out of King County into either Pierce or Snohomish
County. K-12 enrollment in the outlying counties is likely to continue to decline or show very
little improvement
p
until this trend changes.
g Over the next few years,
y
, most of the K-12
enrollment growth in Snohomish County is likely to be the result of larger birth cohorts
entering the school system. Growth from job gains or new housing construction are likely to
be minimal at least through 2012 and possibly longer.
Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
As th
A
these llarger birth
bi th cohorts
h t enter
t the
th schools
h l Everett
E
tt andd many other
th districts
di t i t in
i
Snohomish County are likely to see an increase in their enrollment. But there are reasons to be
cautious. The number of births in Snohomish County was lower than expected in 2010 and
the birth rate was the lowest in well over a decade. A look at fertility rates (the number of
children
hild
bborn tto women iin th
their
i child-bearing
hild b i years)) suggests
t that
th t some women may be
b
delaying having children, perhaps due to the difficult economy. If this trend were to continue
enrollment growth in the county might be less than expected out to 2020.
In Everett specifically, enrollment is projected to decline slightly in 2012, before
growing again between 2013 and 2021. In addition to the usual considerations of population
and housing growth and their effect on enrollment, this years report also considers data from
the recentlyy completed
p
Census to helpp project
p j future enrollment in the District.
The following sections provide charts and discussion of recent and future demographic
trends in births, population and housing. After this discussion, District and school projections
are presented.
presented
NetChangein4CountyPublicSchoolEnrollment:
King,Pierce,Snohomish,andKitsapCombined
(
(OverHalfaMillionPublicSchoolsStudentsin4Counties)
)
P223ReportedOCTOBEREnrollment
NumbersareUpdatedandChangedPeriodically;TheTrendisMoreRELEVANTthantheSpecificNumbers
12618
12427
10039
9911
8860 8727
6517
4714
3152
2397
1439 1189
855
2170
916
376
2070
656
1217
-1 1
2010
-1 0
2009
-0 9
2008
-0 8
2007
-0 7
2006
-0 6
2005
-0 5
2004
-0 4
2003
-0 3
2002
-0 2
2001
-0 1
2000
-0 0
1999
-9 9
1998
-9 8
1997
-9 7
1996
-9 6
1995
-9 5
1994
-9 4
1993
-9 3
1992
-9 2
-742
1991
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
-1000
-3000
3000
3,531
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1 000
1,000
500
0
500
405
323
733
1,000
King
Kitsap
Pierce
Snohomish
Pierce
24.6%
24.4%
24.2%
24.0%
23.8%
23 6%
23.6%
23.4%
Oct11
Oct10
Oct09
Oct08
Oct07
Oct06
Oct05
Oct04
Oct03
Oct02
Oct01
Oct00
Oct99
KingCounty
Oct98
Oct97
46.5%
Oct96
47.0%
Oct95
47.5%
Oct94
48.0%
Oct93
48.5%
Oct92
49.0%
Oct91
Oct11
Oct10
Oct09
Oct08
Oct07
Oct06
Oct05
Oct04
Oct03
Oct02
Oct01
Oct00
Oct99
Oct98
Oct97
Oct96
Oct95
Oct94
Oct93
Oct92
Oct91
49.5%
Oct91
Oct92
Oct93
Oct94
Oct95
Oct96
Oct97
Oct98
Oct99
Oct00
Oct01
Oct02
Oct03
Oct04
Oct05
Oct06
Oct07
Oct08
Oct09
Oct10
Oct11
Oct11
Oct10
Oct09
Oct08
Oct07
Oct06
Oct05
Oct04
Oct03
Oct02
Oct01
Oct00
Oct99
Oct98
Oct97
Oct96
Oct95
Oct94
Oct93
Oct92
Oct91
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Snohomish
21.0%
20.5%
20 0%
20.0%
19.5%
19.0%
18.5%
18.0%
17.5%
17.0%
Population Growth
The population of Snohomish County grew by over 100,000 residents in the past
decade according to the latest census. But the number of residents added between 2000 and
2010 was less than the number added between 1990 and 2000. And in the past 5 years county
growth has been slower than it was in the previous 5 years (according to data from the State of
Washington). This slowing growth rate has had a clear effect on school enrollment.
According to the latest census, the population of the Everett School District grew from
112,145 residents in 2000 to 129,842 residents in 2010. This represents an annual growth rate
of 1.6%. This is very close to the projected rate of growth predicted by the Puget Sound
Regional Council for neighborhoods in and around the District (they predicted an annual rate
of 1.8%).
Despite gains in the population, the Districts share of the county population has
remained
i d att a fairly
f i l constant
t t level
l l over the
th pastt decade.
d d Projecting
P j ti forward,
f
d it is
i likely
lik l that
th t
Everetts share of the county population will decline, since other parts of the county are
projected to grow at a faster rate. Using various estimates of future growth (PSRC forecasts,
housing data, and the Census) the Districts share of the county population is projected to
d li from
decline
f
18.2%
18 2% in
i 2010 tto somewhere
h bbetween
t
17
17.7%
7% tto 17
17.9%
9% bby 2020
2020. Ch
Changes in
i
population growth in Everett are generally correlated with changes in the enrollment trends.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011
15.0%
720,000
713,335
717,000
13.0%
705,895
699,329
700,000
689 314
689,314
11.0%
676,126
680,000
661,346
660,000
9.0%
648,778
639,942
640,000
7.0%
629,287
617,864
620,000
5.0%
606,024
600,000
3.0%
580,000
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.0%
1.5%
0 9%
0.9%
560,000
1 1%
1.1%
0.5%
540,000
1 0%
1.0%
-1.0%
Census
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Population
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Census
2010
2011
(OFM
Estim.))
Percent Increase
PopulationoftheEverettSchoolDistrict
(WithAlternativeGrowthEstimates)
146 823
146,823
160 000
160,000
129,842
140,000
112,620
120,000
100,000
146 158
146,158
88,641
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Census 1990
Census 2000
Census 2010
2020 (Based on
Census Analysis)
2020 (Based on
PSRC
Neighborhood
Forecasts)
Population Growth
Using data from the 1990, 2000 and 2010 Census it is possible to make some reasonable
forecasts of future population growth within the District. To do this we consider the net
change in 5 year age groups from one census to the next for the Everett School District
population. For example, the size of the aged 20-24 population in 2010 is compared to the size
of the aged 10-14 population in 2000 to see how much growth or decline occurred over decade.
Over the course of the decade some residents in a particular age group will move out, others
will move in, and others will stay put, and everyone will be 10 years older. The ratio between
the age groups (Aged 20-24 in 2010 divided by Age 10-14 in 2000) gives some indication of
where there is growth and decline due to movement in and out of the District. The table on
page 17 shows the trends in Everett for the past two census periods.
Using the ratios from the past two census periods it is possible to predict future
population growth. At the lowest ages (0-4 and 5-9) growth is predicted based on the ratio of
children in that age group to women in their child
child-bearing
bearing years using the most recent
averages. And at the highest age group (Over 85 years) the population is projected based on the
ratio of the 85 and over group to the number of residents ages 70 and above from the previous
census. This allows us to account for changes in migration as well as the higher death rates that
occur when
occu
w e people
peop e age.
Population Growth
Using this analysis, the population of the Everett School District is expected to increase
from 129,845 residents in 2010 to 146,823 residents in 2020. The Age 5-19 population within
the District is expected to increase from 25,026 residents in 2010 to 27,291 residents in 2020, a
gain of over 2000. The K-12 public school population in Everett has traditionally been about
75% of the Age 5-19 population in the District, but it has been trending down in recent years.
Assuming these trends continue the Districts enrollment in 2020 is projected to just over
20,000 students (see the Table on page 18).
This forecast is slightly lower than some of the forecasts that have been created in the
past few years, looking at housing and population growth, but it is in line with those trends. In
addition, if we look at the correlation between Everetts share of the county population and
Everetts share of the K-12 county population we reach a similar conclusion. Since the mid1990s there has been a strong correlation between change in Everetts share of the county
population and changes in it
itss share of the county K
K-12
12 population (see chart on page 19)
Assuming that the county K-12 public school population grows to approximately 117,472
students by 2020 (based on births and projected population growth), we would predict that
Everett would enroll about 17% of this population (based on changes in the Districts share of
tthee county
cou ty popu
population).
at o ). Thiss wou
would
d result
esu t in aan eenrollment
o e t oof 19,970
9,970 stude
students
ts by 2020.
0 0.
Totals
2010 1990 2000
4362 7,561
7 561 7,980
7 980
4154 7,181 7,790
4045 6,000 8,600
4039 5,301 7,905
4023 5,691 8,565
4899 8,475
8 475 7,890
7 890
4528 8,668 9,200
4644 8,218 10,190
4648 6,678 9,700
5020 5,113 8,345
4848 3,588
3 588 7,120
7 120
4181 3,089 4,855
3473 2,957 3,440
2137 3,068 2,825
1582 2,654 2,235
1347 2,039
2 039 2,505
2 505
1128 1,314 1,840
1,521 1,046 1,635
64,579 88,641 112,620
Average Male
18.6% 15.9% 16.9% 17.1% 15.8% 16.3%
16.4%
18.6% 15.3% 15.5% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0%
15.4%
2010
4 529
4,529
4,316
4,161
4,311
4,881
5 299
5,299
4,932
4,837
4,983
5,184
4 987
4,987
4,135
3,096
2,047
1,254
937
662
712
65,263
Females
1990 2000
3 622 3,980
3,622
3,322 3,865
3,058 4,145
2,722 3,730
2,835 3,670
3 785
4 041 3,785
4,041
4,195 4,370
4,202 4,875
3,156 4,685
2,344 4,300
3 630
1 854 3,630
1,854
1,585 2,415
1,517 1,720
1,802 1,625
1,415 1,300
1 277 1,440
1,277
1 440
897 1,245
793 1,080
44,637 55,860
RatesofChange
MaleRates
FemaleRates
Project2020
2010 9000 0010 WghtAvg 9000 0010WghtAvg Males Females
8 891
8,891
5 606 4,718
5,606
4 718
8,470
4,594 4,472
8,206 1.13 1.04
1.06 1.14 1.02 1.05 4,711 4,433
8,350 1.08 1.10
1.09 1.12 1.05 1.06 4,740 4,341
8,904 1.66 1.10
1.24 1.20 0.97 1.03 4,559 3,926
10 198 1.59
10,198
1 59 1.27
1 27
1 35 1.39
1.35
1 39 1.31
1 31 1.33
1 33 5,472
5 472 5,305
5 305
9,460 1.69 1.01
1.18 1.54 1.23 1.31 4,918 4,964
9,481 1.20 1.18
1.18 1.21 1.23 1.22 6,244 6,011
9,631 1.12 1.03
1.05 1.12 1.06 1.08 5,088 4,816
10,204 1.01 0.98
0.98 1.02 1.03 1.03 4,718 4,782
9 835 0.99
9,835
0 99 0.99
0 99
0 99 1.15
0.99
1 15 1.03
1 03 1.06
1 06 4,955
4 955 4,810
4 810
8,316 0.88 1.02
0.99 1.03 0.97 0.99 5,299 4,881
6,569 0.99 0.89
0.91 0.93 0.96 0.95 4,424 4,638
4,184 0.80 0.84
0.83 1.03 0.88 0.92 3,469 3,700
2,836 0.65 0.73
0.71 0.86 0.92 0.90 2,257 3,194
2 284 0.84
2,284
0 84 0.78
0 78
0 80 0.80
0.80
0 80 0.83
0 83 0.82
0 82 1,598
1 598 1,771
1 771
1,790 0.48 0.71
0.65 0.88 0.87 0.87
888 1,373
2,233 0.23 0.27
0.26 0.30 0.38 0.36
634
514
129,842
74,174 72,649
Female
16.1%
15.0%
Total
10 324
10,324
9,066
9,144
9,081
8,485
10 777
10,777
9,882
12,255
9,904
9,500
9 765
9,765
10,180
9,062
7,169
5,451
3 369
3,369
2,261
1,148
146,823
TotalPopulation
PopulationChange
%519
Age519
Age 5 19
1990
2000
88,641
112,620
2010
2020
129,842 146,823
23,979
17,222
16,981
20.9%
21.6%
19.3%
18.6%
18 482
18,482
24 295
24,295
25 026
25,026
27 291
27,291
18,239
18,711
20,150
75.1%
74.8%
73.8%
0.7%
2.3%
0.7%
16.2%
14.4%
13.7%
EverettPublicSchoolsK12
Publick12%ofAge519
K12%ofTotalPopulation
19 00%
19.00%
18.50%
18 00%
18.00%
17.50%
17 00%
17.00%
16.50%
16.00%
%
15.50%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% of County Population
% of County K
K-12
12
Population Growth
As a final check on future enrollment two simple linear models were created to predict
future enrollment in the school district. The first model uses county births and Everetts
projected share of the county population to predict future enrollment. This model predicts that
the District will enroll just over 19,000 students by 2015 and 20,175 students by 2020. This is
very close to the earlier estimates, though it should be pointed out that this model assumes
increasing births between now and 2015 (see the next section on births).
A final linear model uses the projected population for the District (rather than looking at
the Districts share of the county population) and births to predict future enrollment. This
model predicts that enrollment will be at 20,125 students by 2020.
All of these models look at total enrollment rather than enrollment by grade. As a result
they do not allow us to look at enrollment by grade level. The final district projection models
l k att grade-to-grade
look
d t
d trends
t d to
t predict
di t enrollment.
ll
t Th
The estimate
ti t from
f
these
th
more generall
models are used to tweak the forecasts so that they align with future estimates of population
growth, and specifically K-12 population growth within the District.
ShareofCountyPop.
CountyBirths
18.1%
8924
18.2%
9070
18.1%
9001
17.9%
9811
2025
20,550
20
550
17.7%
10,553
2) Linear Model Based on Births and Projected Population Growth in the Everett School District
2010
2011
2015
2020
2025
18 711 18,649
18 649 19,599
19 599 20,125
20 125 21,009
Projected Enrollment 18,711
ProjectedEnrollment
21 009
9570
7862
8000
7390
7833
7629
7921
8110
8703
8592 8675
8352 8496 8545
8344
8924 9070
9795
9237
9001
6646 6801
6000
4000
2000
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
10000
0000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Births
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
8924
9070
9570
9795
9237
9001
9152
9360
9486
9648
9811
9971
10137
10305
10476
10533
35.00%
9000
8000
7629
7921
8110
8352
8496
8545
8703
8344
8592
8675
8924
9070
30.00%
25.00%
7000
6000
5000
20.00%
17.3%
16.6%
16.5%
16.4%
16.8%
16.3%
16.5%
16.8%
17.4%
18.0%
16 5% 16.2%
16.5%
4000
3000
15.00%
10.00%
2000
5 00%
5.00%
1000
0
0.00%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Pct of Cohort
109,457
112,562
2010 E
Enrollll
2015
117,472
2020
OccupiedHousingUnitsandStudentsPerHousehold
2000 and 2010 Census Data
2000and2010CensusData
1.00
70 000
70,000
0.90
60,000
50,000
40,000
0.80
50,140
0.70
42,880
0.60
0.43
0.37
0.50
30,000
0.40
18,239
20,000
18,711
0.30
0 20
0.20
10,000
0.10
0.00
Census2000
2010Census
OccupiedHousingUnits
42,880
50,140
EverettEnrollmentOctP223
18,239
18,711
0.43
0.37
StudentsPerHouse
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011
66
65
78
75
51
38
56
86
77
70
74
86
37
28
70
49
32
14
339
289
300
251
229
165
200
190
100
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Projected
*The 2011 estimate is as of November 19th 2011. The forecast of 190 is based on the trends of the
past few years and the most recent quarterly sales figures.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011
7,898
7,000
5,679
6 000
6,000
4,501
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1 000
1,000
0
BasedonPSRCNeighborhoods
ProposedforFuture
ConstructionandSale
ProposedIncluding"Onhold"
and"Withdrawn"
Enrollment Projections
The previous sections suggest that enrollment in the Everett School District is likely in
increase in the coming decade,
decade though perhaps by a lesser amount than was assumed in
previous years reports. Estimates for 2020 suggest that enrollment will be just above or just
below the 20,000 mark. But if birth rate trends continue to be low, and new home construction
and sales continue at a slow pace, it is quite possible that enrollment could be relatively flat in
the coming decade even with the increase in births
births.
The final forecast model was based on projected births, assumptions about the Districts
share of the birth cohort going forward (forecast to be lower over time) and grade to grade
trends as an initial first step. These numbers were then adjusted to take account of projected
changes in housing and population growth so that the enrollment over time would align with
projected change in the demographic trends within the District, discussed in the previous
sections. Low and High range alternatives were created to show what might happen if
population and K-12 growth were to be lower or higher than projected in the original model.
Oct_10
Oct_11
Oct_12
Oct_13
Oct_14
Oct_15
Oct_16
Oct_17
Oct_18
Oct_19
Oct_20
Oct 21
Low Grow th
18828
18711
18649
18444
18443
18325
18341
18414
18446
18574
18679
18832
18948
M di
Medium
(R
(Recommended)
d d)
18828
18711
18649
18608
18745
18754
18892
19087
19230
19463
19665
19905
20090
High Grow th
18828
18711
18649
18856
19170
19346
19634
19971
20242
20598
20906
21242
21508
Projection
j
Birth Data
Projected Births
Birth Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Everett Births
2154
2150
2102
2007
2197
2276
2338
2450
2556
2260
2390
2334
2387
2419
2460
2502
2543
% of Cohort
64.6%
66.8%
66.7%
74.4%
71.2%
64.5%
62.7%
60.0%
60.9%
65.4%
65.3%
64.9%
64.4%
64.1%
63.1%
62.3%
61.3%
County Births
8545
8703
8344
8592
8675
8924
9070
9570
9795
9237
9001
9152
9360
9486
9648
9811
9971
Pct of Cohort
16.3%
16.5%
16.8%
17.4%
18.0%
16.5%
16.2%
15.4%
15.9%
16.0%
17.3%
16.6%
16.4%
16.3%
16.1%
15.9%
15.6%
Revised
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent
143
0.8%
35
0.2%
170
0.9%
85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%
Enrollment by Level
K-5
6-8
9-12
8346
4276
5773
Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1470 1558 1478 1561 1515 1538 1550 1552 1558 1559
1
1503 1501 1590 1509 1605 1558 1581 1594 1596 1602
2
1459 1494 1492 1581 1511 1607 1560 1583 1596 1598
3
1523 1455 1490 1488 1588 1518 1614 1567 1590 1603
4
1450 1509 1441 1476 1484 1584 1514 1610 1563 1586
5
1389 1441 1499 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 1611 1564
6
1422 1382 1434 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 1611
7
1393 1415 1375 1427 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515
8
1469 1383 1405 1365 1424 1489 1429 1474 1482 1582
9
1420 1480 1393 1415 1385 1444 1510 1450 1495 1503
10
1364 1381 1439 1355 1386 1356 1414 1479 1420 1464
11
1360 1318 1334 1390 1318 1348 1319 1376 1439 1381
12
1386 1428 1384 1401 1470 1394 1425 1395 1455 1522
18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 19230 19463 19665 19905 20090
-41
-0.2%
137
0.7%
9
0.0%
138
0.7%
195
1.0%
142
0.7%
233
1.2%
203
1.0%
240
1.2%
185
0.9%
8958
4180
5607
8990
4214
5550
9047
4284
5561
9180
4348
5559
9290
4398
5542
9404
4391
5668
9421
4544
5700
9514
4582
5809
9512
4708
5870
Enrollment by Level
8585
4184
5769
8627
4238
5708
8777
4177
5789
8965
4231
5632
8820
4285
5606
8798
4284
5567
K-5
6-8
9-12
8794
4284
5530
Low Projection
Birth Data
Birth Year
Projected Births
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Everett Births
2154
2150
2102
2007
2197
2276
2338
2450
2556
2260
2390
2334
2387
2419
2460
2502
2543
% of Cohort
64.6%
66.8%
66.7%
74.4%
71.2%
64.5%
62.7%
60.0%
60.9%
65.4%
65.3%
64.9%
64.4%
64.1%
63.1%
62.3%
61.3%
County Births
8545
8703
8344
8592
8675
8924
9070
9570
9795
9237
9001
9152
9360
9486
9648
9811
9971
P t off Cohort
Pct
Ch t
16 3%
16.3%
16 5%
16.5%
16 8%
16.8%
17 4%
17.4%
18 0%
18.0%
16 5%
16.5%
16 2%
16.2%
15 0%
15.0%
15 7%
15.7%
15 8%
15.8%
17 2%
17.2%
16 4%
16.4%
16 3%
16.3%
16 2%
16.2%
15 9%
15.9%
15 7%
15.7%
15 5%
15.5%
Revised
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent
3 yr
143
0.8%
35
0.2%
170
0.9%
85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%
8585
4184
5769
8627
4238
5708
8777
4177
5789
8965
4231
5632
Enrollment by Level
K-5
66-88
9-12
8346
4276
5773
Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1433 1542 1463 1546 1500 1523 1534 1537 1542 1544
1
1488 1449 1559 1479 1574 1527 1550 1562 1565 1570
2
1445 1465 1426 1534 1466 1560 1514 1536 1548 1551
3
1508 1427 1447 1408 1526 1458 1552 1506 1528 1540
4
1436 1479 1399 1419 1390 1507 1440 1533 1487 1509
5
1376 1413 1455 1376 1406 1377 1493 1427 1519 1473
6
1412 1360 1396 1438 1365 1395 1366 1481 1416 1507
7
1384 1395 1344 1380 1427 1354 1384 1355 1470 1405
8
1459 1365 1376 1325 1366 1413 1341 1370 1341 1455
9
1413 1462 1368 1379 1337 1379 1426 1354 1383 1354
10
1358 1367 1415 1324 1344 1303 1344 1390 1319 1348
11
1353 1305 1314 1360 1282 1301 1261 1301 1345 1277
12
1379 1414 1363 1373 1431 1349 1369 1327 1369 1415
18444 18443 18325 18341 18414 18446 18574 18679 18832 18948
Wght
-205
-1.1%
-1
0.0%
-118
-0.6%
16
0.1%
74
0.4%
31
0.2%
129
0.7%
105
0.6%
153
0.8%
115
0.6%
8775
4120
5548
8749
4116
5460
8762
4143
5436
8862
4158
5394
8952
4162
5332
9083
4091
5400
9101
4206
5372
9189
4227
5416
9187
4367
5394
Enrollment by Level
8820
4285
5606
8798
4284
5567
K-5
66-88
9-12
8686
4255
5503
High Projection
Birth Data
Birth Year
Projected Births
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Everett Births
2154
2150
2102
2007
2197
2276
2338
2450
2556
2260
2390
2334
2387
2419
2460
2502
2543
% of Cohort
64.6%
66.8%
66.7%
74.4%
71.2%
64.5%
62.7%
60.0%
60.9%
65.4%
65.3%
64.9%
64.4%
64.1%
63.1%
62.3%
61.3%
County Births
8545
8703
8344
8592
8675
8924
9070
9570
9795
9237
9001
9152
9360
9486
9648
9811
9971
P t off Cohort
Pct
C h t
16 3%
16.3%
16 5%
16.5%
16 8%
16.8%
17 4%
17.4%
18 0%
18.0%
16 5%
16.5%
16 2%
16.2%
16 1%
16.1%
16 1%
16.1%
16 2%
16.2%
17 5%
17.5%
16 7%
16.7%
16 6%
16.6%
16 5%
16.5%
16 3%
16.3%
16 0%
16.0%
15 8%
15.8%
Revised
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent
143
0.8%
35
0.2%
170
0.9%
85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%
8585
4184
5769
8627
4238
5708
8777
4177
5789
8965
4231
5632
Enrollment by Level
K-5
66-88
9-12
8346
4276
5773
Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1544 1573 1493 1577 1531 1553 1565 1568 1574 1575
1
1518 1592 1622 1539 1638 1590 1613 1626 1628 1634
2
1474 1524 1599 1629 1556 1656 1608 1631 1644 1646
3
1538 1485 1536 1611 1653 1579 1680 1632 1655 1668
4
1465 1539 1486 1537 1623 1665 1591 1693 1644 1667
5
1403 1470 1545 1491 1553 1640 1683 1608 1711 1662
6
1436 1410 1478 1553 1506 1569 1657 1700 1624 1728
7
1407 1444 1417 1486 1569 1521 1585 1674 1717 1641
8
1484 1411 1448 1421 1498 1582 1533 1598 1687 1731
9
1435 1510 1436 1473 1456 1535 1621 1571 1637 1728
10
1378 1410 1483 1411 1457 1440 1518 1603 1554 1619
11
1374 1345 1376 1447 1386 1432 1415 1491 1575 1527
12
1400 1457 1427 1459 1545 1480 1529 1511 1592 1682
18856 19170 19346 19634 19971 20242 20598 20906 21242 21508
207
1.1%
315
1.7%
175
0.9%
288
1.5%
337
1.7%
272
1.4%
356
1.8%
308
1.5%
336
1.6%
267
1.3%
9183
4265
5722
9281
4343
5722
9384
4460
5790
9554
4573
5844
9683
4672
5887
9740
4775
6083
9758
4972
6176
9856
5028
6358
9852
5100
6556
Enrollment by Level
8820
4285
5606
8798
4284
5567
K-5
66-88
9-12
8942
4327
5587
School Projections
Projections by school and grade level were also completed and balanced to the overall
District medium range
g pprojection.
j
School grade
g
level projections
p j
are generally
g
y less accurate than
District grade level projections due to the smaller numbers used to estimate trends, and because
program changes and student choice can affect the allocation of students independent of
demographic trends. To the extent possible these projections take account of waiver information,
especially
p
y at the entry
y level ggrades. At the other ggrades it is assumed that students who attend a
school outside of their neighborhood will remain at that school in subsequent years.
School enrollments were projected based on a consideration of the current enrollment, each
schoolss share of the entry grade enrollment (K,
school
(K 6,
6 and 9) and based on a consideration of how
continuing students move up through the grades. At the secondary level, consideration was also
given to how students feed from elementary into middle school, and from middle school into high
school. The trends of the past 3 years were used to allocate future enrollment for the period
between 2012 and 2016
2016. These numbers were then adjusted to account for projected changes in
population and housing for different service areas. These adjustments were based on projected
changes in new home development derived from an examination of New Home Trends data and
projected population growth for neighborhoods obtained from the Puget Sound Regional Council.
The following pages provide a summary of the projections by school.
school A separate document
contains the detailed numbers by school and grade level.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011
OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16
Cedar Wood
Emerson
Forest View
Garfield
Hawthorne
Jackson
Jefferson
Lowell
Madison
Mill Creek
Monroe
Pennyy Creek
Silver Firs
Silver Lake
View Ridge
Whittier
Woodside
Oth
Other
Totals
734
599
405
430
354
513
471
474
589
577
768
512
571
533
429
580
47
8586
528
587
392
392
442
327
487
479
469
673
582
691
460
484
562
437
577
59
8628
497
596
480
360
461
344
506
462
470
691
599
720
495
453
555
426
598
64
8777
500
584
519
369
470
364
502
493
449
678
572
766
526
483
570
410
645
65
8965
518
602
535
336
507
325
498
449
451
707
504
724
560
485
556
381
626
56
8820
548
599
538
331
467
359
545
476
464
684
470
725
519
481
492
415
631
54
8798
561
594
544
329
461
360
559
481
459
690
450
724
516
486
489
405
637
50
8794
592
600
588
330
458
374
563
481
462
691
438
724
529
506
478
419
676
47
8958
634
604
602
338
459
374
556
483
460
673
425
721
518
516
456
427
697
48
8990
660
605
597
334
458
383
557
486
462
665
434
710
517
521
440
434
740
44
9047
663
613
607
337
465
397
561
492
464
678
432
731
519
527
438
446
765
46
9180
OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16
Eisenhower
Evergreen
G
Gateway
Heatherwood
North
Other
Totals
716
937
1023
842
645
20
4183
759
965
1069
805
616
20
4234
852
1058
678
853
707
29
4177
893
1064
666
886
693
30
4232
885
1067
674
946
681
33
4286
882
1045
734
919
677
27
4284
870
1011
787
924
664
28
4284
829
978
775
933
644
21
4180
829
952
787
986
636
25
4214
811
969
825
1009
646
25
4284
813
951
869
1048
641
26
4348
CHS
EHS
JHS
Sequoia
Other
Totals
1814
1706
1908
271
71
5770
1804
1663
1890
295
59
5711
1842
1608
1994
282
63
5789
1787
1558
1929
313
44
5631
1872
1482
1904
303
45
5606
1856
1423
1926
324
38
5567
1858
1393
1920
312
47
5530
1884
1377
1976
318
51
5607
1840
1362
1982
311
55
5550
1847
1361
1991
310
52
5561
1842
1357
1992
317
51
5559
Totals
18539
18573
18743
18828
18712
18649
18608
18745
18754
18892
19087