Desenvolvimento Sustentvel e Oportunidades de carbono para o Brasil

5 Painel Situao Atual dos projetos de MDL (Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo) no Brasil e no Mundo

Centro Brasileiro e britnico, So Paulo

17 e 18 de agosto de 2006

Marco Antonio Fujihara

Tendncias do Sistema Energtico Primrio segundo a OECD

Are carbon costs being internalised into power prices?

Source: Fortis Bank

The context for the Kyoto Commitment Period (2008-2012)

EU-15 will require ~180200 MtCO2/yr by 2010 Japan will require 170 MtCO2/yr; Canada ~ 140 MtCO2/yr Who ultimately pays for Kyoto? Inter-relation between different carbon currencies (AAUs, ERUs, CERs) during 2008-12

Actual and projected EU-15 emissions compared to the Kyoto target for 2008-12 (European Environment Agency, 2004)

Sustentabilidade
Social performance
Environmental performance

Ethical performance

Supplier monitoring Health & Safety

Corporate governance

Health & Safety

Sustentabilidade e MDL
O MDL no um instrumento (conceito) isolado, ele est inserido num contexto amplo, chamado Sustentabilidade. O resultado dessa insero agregao de valor e mitigao de risco dos CER.
de a id l

Artigo 12 do Protocolo de Kyoto

st Su

nt e

bi a

MDL

E no OU

Number of CDM projects in Latin Others America by country 15%

Argentina 3% Ecuador 3% Honduras 5% Chile 7% Brazil 49%

Mexico 18%

Volume de CERs na Amrica Latina

Volume of CERs until 2012 in Latin America by country
Argentina 9% Ecuador 1% Honduras 1% Chile 9% Mexico 17% Brazil 51% Others 12%
Table 1: Latin America Brazil Mexico Chile Honduras Ecuador Argentina Others Colom bia Guatem ala Peru El Salvador Panam a Bolivia Costa Rica Nicaragua Uruguay Dom inican Republic Jam aica Total Num ber kCER2012 49% 50% 18% 17% 7% 9% 5% 1% 3% 1% 3% 9% 15% 12% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 365 290628

Tendncias de Novos Projetos na Amrica Latina

New project in Latin America in the pipeline each quarter

100 80 P rojects 60 40 20 0 Q 1-04 Q 2-04 Q 3-04 Q 4-04 Q 1-05 Q 2-05 Q 3-05 Q 4-05 Q 1-06 Q 2-06 Latin America Brazil Mexico

Numbe r of CDM proje cts in Asia by country

South Korea 3% Malaysia 3% Philippines 4% Thailand Indonesia 2% 2% Others 4%

China 21%

India 61%

Table 3: Asia & Pacific DC India China Philippines Malaysia South Korea Thailand Indonesia Others Sri Lanka Vietnam Bangladesh Nepal Bhutan Cambodia Fiji Lao PDR Mongolia Pakistan Papua New Guinea Total

Number kCER2012 62% 31% 21% 51% 4% 0% 3% 2% 3% 12% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 585 782563

Volumes de CERs na sia

1 %

So u t Ko r a h e

Volume of CERs until 2012 in Asia by country

1 2 % 1 % Oh e r t s 3 %

Th a a n d l i

n i I d a

3 1 %

Ma a y l a i s

2 %

Ph p p n e s i l i

0%

Ch n a i

5 0%

Tendncias de Novos Projetos na sia

New project in Asia in the pipeline each quarter

250 200 Projects 150 100 50 0 Q1-04 Q2-04 Q3-04 Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Asia & Pacific DC India China

Numero de Projetos

All CDM Projects in the Pipeline in Brazil + Mexico + India + China as a fraction of all projects
100% Projects 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Q1-04 Q2-04 Q3-04 Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06

CDM Pipeline in Agosto de 2006

Total in the CDM Pipeline Number kCERs 2012 kCERs

Latin America

365

36.9%

42357

290628

25.6%

Asia & Pacific DC

585

59.1%

116732

782563

68.8%

Europe and Central Asia

10

1.0%

468

2973

0.3%

Sub-Sahara Africa

17

1.7%

7112

42319

3.7%

North Africa & Middle-East

13

1.3%

2998

18858

1.7%

World

990

100%

169667

1137340

100%

Compradores em Agosto de 2006

B u y e rs A u s t r ia B e lg iu m C anada D e n m a rk F in la n d F ra n c e G e rm a n y G re e c e Ic e la n d I r e la n d I t a ly Japan L u x e m b o u rg N e th e r la n d s N e w Z e a la n d N o rw a y P o rtu g a l S p a in Sweden S w i t z e r la n d U n it e d K . CDCF W BCF NEFCO n .a . T o ta l
N o t e : I n s o m e p r o je c t m o r e t h a n o n e in v e s t o r c o u n t r y p a r t ic ip a t e .

N u m b e r o f p r o je c ts CDM JI 16 10 1 14 11 20 11 4 5 7 2

2 18 66 62

1 2 34

25 6 6 124 5 5 647 1030

2 1 18 4 20 119

Perodo de Credito considerado

C re d itin g p e rio d fo r C D M p ro je c ts 7 ye a rs 1 0 ye a rs n u m b e r (% ) 73% 27%

Tipologia de Projetos CDM em Agosto de 2006

Type Biomass energy Hydro EE Industry Wind Agriculture Landfill gas Fossil fuel switch Biogas Cement HFCs EE Service Fugitive Solar Coal bed/mine methane Geothermal N2O EE Households Afforestation & Reforestation Transport Energy distrib. PFCs Tidal Total HFC & N2O reduction CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed Renewables Energy efficiency Fuel switch Afforestation & Reforestation number 213 169 125 123 110 80 40 38 22 14 10 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 990 21 226 557 143 40 3 22% 17% 13% 12% 11% 8% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 2% 23% 56% 14% 4% 0% CDM CERs/yr (000) Accumul. 2012 CERs (000) CERs Issued (000) 11902 7% 86120 8% 618 6% 10218 6% 65929 6% 462 4% 13156 8% 91855 8% 128 1% 10748 6% 71388 6% 0 0% 4768 3% 34185 3% 995 9% 19524 12% 132252 12% 73 1% 2449 1% 18633 2% 0 0% 1724 1% 12870 1% 85 1% 2832 2% 25542 2% 0 0% 62432 37% 410644 36% 8480 78% 1873 5571 185 59 1545 19292 87 418 271 209 86 315 169667 81810 32756 36637 15597 2449 418 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 48% 19% 22% 9% 1% 0% 12873 37419 1151 541 9817 118345 510 2327 1785 1509 542 1104 1137340 529531 229939 248379 108531 18633 2327 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% 47% 20% 22% 10% 2% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10842 8480 1068 1165 128 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 78% 10% 11% 1% 0% 0%

CERs until 2012 from itch CDM projects in each sector Fuel sw
2% Energy ef f iciency 10% Renew ables 22%

Af f orestation & Ref orestation 0% HFC & N2O reduction 46%

Total de CDM por Setor

CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed 20%

N u m b e r (%) o f C D M p r o je c ts in e a c h s e c to r

Affo re s ta ti o n & R e fo re s ta tio n F u e l s w itc h 0% 4% E n e rg y e ffi c ie n c y 14%

H FC & N 2 O re d u c tio n 2 % C H 4 re d u c tio n & Cem ent & Coal m in e /b e d 23%

R e n e w a b le s 57%

Tendncia de CDM por tipologia

Percentage share of the total num of projects of 3 largest CDM ber categories
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1-04 Q2-04 Q3-04 Q4-04 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Renewables CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed Energy Efficiency

Fontes de Informao desta apresentao

Source :Jrgen Fenhann, UNEP Ris Centre 09-08-06, j.fenhann@risoe.dk tabulao de Marco Antonio Fujihara, mfujihara@institutototum.com.br

Emissions reductions and the potential role for the financial industry

Available Emission Reduction strategies for corporations

Direct Reductions In-house Indirect Reductions Offset Projects
Joint Implementation Clean Development Mechanism

Emissions Trading

Financial industry opportunities and risks

Investments
Venture Capital GHG Portfolio Risks

Funds
Diversification Kyoto Hedge

Insurance/ART
New Products New Exposures

Derivatives
Futures Options Weather

Project Finance
New project revenue stream

24

Muito Obrigado
Marco Antonio Fujihara
Instituto Totum de Desenvolvimento Empresarial mfujihara@institutototum.com.br

Phone : 011

33 72 95 72