Professional Documents
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RURALELECTRIFICATION CORP
Concernsoverassetquality;optimismoverdevelopmentsonSEBs
IndiaEquityResearch|BankingandFinancialServices
RuralElectrificationCorp(REC)reportedaPATofINR7.7bnasagainstour
expectationofINR7.9bn(growthof16%YoYand24%QoQ).Thisincludes
INR866mninforexMTM writeback.Keyhighlightsare:1)INR2.23bnof
exposure to Konaseema project classified as NPL; provisioning hit of
INR240mnandinterestincomereversalofINR250mn,2)Employeecosts
more than double YoY/QoQ as it provided for additional incentives for
the period FY1011, 3) NIMs came off 13bps to 4.34% mainly due to
incomereversal,4)Disbursementgrowthmoderatedto10%duetoweak
December month and 5) interim dividend of INR5 per share; dividend
payouttobemaintainednear30%(implyingfinaldividendof~INR3.0per
share).Atcurrentvaluationsof1.2xFY13Ebookand6.1xFY13Eearnings,
theriskrewardisfavourable.WemaintainBUYwithTPofINR240.
NIMssustained;stayedawayfrombanksborrowing
AbsoluteRating
BUY
RatingRelativetoSector
Outperformer
RiskRatingRelativetoSector
Medium
SectorRelativetoMarket
Equalweight
MARKETDATA(R:RURL.BO,B:RECLIN)
CMP
:INR198
TargetPrice
:INR240
52weekrange(INR)
:289/144
Shareinissue(mn)
:987.5
Mcap(INRbn/USDmn)
:195/3,904
Avg.DailyVol.BSE/NSE(000) :2,941.6
SHAREHOLDINGPATTERN(%)
Borrowingwasskewedinfavourofbonds/debentureswheretheincrementalcostwas
9.6%.IthasfurtherraisedUSD100mninECBinQ3FY12(overandaboveUSD300mnin
H1FY12). With banks having aggressively raised base rates in Q2FY12, REC has
completely stayed away from bank borrowings since past three quarters (proportion
hascomeofffrom16%inFY11to7%inQ3FY12).Theincreaseinblendedcostoffunds
was capped at 11bps to 8.4% whereas yields came off 6bps due to interest reversal.
Consequently, NIMs came off 13bps QoQ to 4.34% in line with expectation.
ManagementindicatedthatinFY12E,INR120bnofassetsandINR90bnofliabilitieswill
comeupforrepricing.Wearebuildinginmarginsof4.1%4.3%forFY1214E.
Outlookandvaluations:PositivedevelopmentsatSEBs;BUY
Others
27.2%
Promoters*
43.2%
FIIs
27.1%
MFs,FIs&
Banks
2.5%
*Promoterspledgedshares
:
NIL
(%ofshareinissue)
REC has underperformed broader markets by 20% over the past one year, led by
concerns surrounding the power sector. However, some positive developments have
taken place for SEBs recently (tariff hikes, government support etc). Banks are
reluctanttoprovidefurtherfundstoailingdiscomsandrestructuringisinevitablefor
working capital loans. However, RECs lower share in working capital finance and
limiteddependenceonprivateprojectsoffercomfort.Ledby17%CAGRinloanassets
and relatively stable NIMs, we expect 13% earnings CAGR and average ROEs of 20%
over FY1214E. The stock is trading at 1.2x FY13E book and 6.1x FY13E earnings. We
maintainBUY/SectorOutperformerrecommendation/ratingonthestock.
Financials
YeartoMarch
EDELWEISS4DRATINGS
PRICEPERFORMANCE(%)
Stock
Nifty
EWBanksand
Financial
ServicesIndex
1month
22.9
7.0
3months
3.6
(0.1)
12.8
0.2
12months
(33.7)
(11.4)
(9.5)
KunalShah
+912240407579
kunal.shah@edelcap.com
NileshParikh
Netint.inc.(INRmn)
10,917
8,480
28.7
PAT(INRmn)
7,694
6,641
DilutedEPS(INR)
7.8
6.7
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
33,808
39,337
45,916
8,241
32.5
15.9
6,229
23.5
25,066
28,143
31,935
15.9
6.3
23.5
25.4
28.5
32.3
BVpershare(INR)
130
148
170
Price/Earnings(x)
7.8
6.9
6.1
Price/Book(x)
1.5
1.3
1.2
EdelweissResearchisalsoavailableonwww.edelresearch.com,
BloombergEDEL<GO>,ThomsonFirstCall,ReutersandFactset.
+912240635470
nilesh.parikh@edelcap.com
SuruchiChaudhary
+912266233316
suruchi.chaudhary@edelcap.com
January25,2012
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
BankingandFinancialServices
AssetqualityslipsonKonaseemagasbasedproject
ThecompanyhasclassifiedINR2.23bnofexposuretoKonaseemagasbasedprojectasNPL
onwhichitmadeaprovisioningofINR240mnwhiletherewasaninterestincomereversalof
INR250mn.GrossNPLsnowstandat0.52%andwithprovisioningcoverageof14%,netNPAs
standat0.45%.
Disbursementgrowthmoderates;someshorttermfundinginQ3FY12
WhilethedisbursementmomentumpickeduppostQ2FY12,Decembermonthsawamuted
offtake as disbursement growth moderated to 6% YoY to INR63bn. Disbursements include
INR11.5bn of short term loans primarily provided to Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, Punjab state
utilities against government guarantee and based on conditionalities of tariff hikes, AT&C
lossreductionetc.Loanbooksustained25%YoYgrowthtoINR950bn.Moredisappointing
hasbeenthedeclineinsanctionstomerelyINR88bn(comparedtoarunrateofINR160bn
175bn). While sanctions picked up in the generation segment, T&D segment (including
RGGVY)sawlowersanctions.Wearebuildinginadisbursementgrowthof10%overFY12
14andexpecttheloanbooktopost17%CAGRtoINR1.4tn.
Otherhighlights
REC had hedged USD500mn of forex borrowings in September 2011 to minimise the
impact of MTM losses. Now the unhedged position stands at a mere USD250mn
(comparedtoUSD970mninFY11).
EmployeecosthasjumpedsignificantlyuptoINR680mn(up137%YoYand125%QoQ)
as the company provided an extra incentive of 66% to employees for FY1011 (now
followingasimilarsalarystructurelikePFC).
Chart2:Disbursementgrowthmomentummoderates
45
36
120
27
Generation
T&D
Shortterm
Generation
T&D
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q210
Q110
40
Q210
18
Q110
80
Q409
(INRbn)
160
Q409
(INRbn)
Chart1:SanctionsdipinT&Dsegment
200
Shortterm
Source:Company
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
RuralElectrificationCorporation
Chart3:Stayedawayfrombankborrowingscompletely
100.0
Chart4:Borrowingsskewinfavorofforexandbonds
100.0
80.0
60.0
60.0
(%)
(%)
80.0
40.0
40.0
20.0
20.0
Taxablebonds
CP
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q210
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Banks,Fis,etc.
Banks,FIs,CP,etc Foreign
Chart5:NIMssustainedduetocommendableliabilitymanagement
13.0
5.0
11.4
4.6
9.8
4.2
8.2
3.8
6.6
3.4
5.0
3.0
(%)
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q210
Taxablebonds
Capitalgains
Foreign
Yieldonadvances
Costoffunds
Chart6:Assetqualityslips(KonaseemaprojectclassifiedasNPL)
0.9
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q210
Q110
Q409
(%)
Capitalgains
Q110
Q409
NIMs
100.0
80.0
0.5
60.0
0.4
40.0
0.2
20.0
0.0
0.0
GrossNPA
NetNPA
Q312
Q212
Q112
Q411
Q311
Q211
Q111
Q410
Q310
Q210
Q110
Q409
Q309
Q209
Q109
(%)
0.7
(%)
Q110
Q409
0.0
0.0
Provisioncoverage(RHS)
Source:Company
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
BankingandFinancialServices
Financialsnapshot
YeartoMarch
Interestincome
Interestexp
Netincomefromops
Netoperatingincome
Otherincome
Netrevenues
Staffcosts
Otherexpenses
Depreciation
Preprovopprofit(ppop)
Provisions
Profitbeforetax
Tax
PAT
DilutedEPS(INR)
Costtoincome(%)
TaxRate
Price/Book(x)
Price/Earnings
Q3FY12
26,500
15,583
10,917
136
354
11,407
680
92
7
10,629
241
10,388
2,693
7,694
7.8
6.8
25.9
Q3FY11
20,860
12,380
8,480
564
357
9,401
287
92
8
9,015
9,015
2,374
6,641
6.7
4.1
26.3
%Change
27.0
25.9
28.7
(75.9)
(0.8)
21.3
137.1
(0.1)
(6.5)
17.9
15.2
13.5
15.9
15.9
Q2FY12
25,145
16,904
8,241
176
379
8,796
302
145
9
8,341
8,341
2,112
6,229
6.3
5.2
25.3
%Change
5.4
(7.8)
32.5
(22.8)
(6.5)
29.7
124.8
(36.5)
(17.2)
27.4
24.5
27.5
23.5
23.5
FY11
82,318
48,510
33,808
1,481
300
35,589
1,275
369
30
33,915
2
33,913
8,847
25,066
25.4
4.7
26.1
1.5
7.8
(INRmn)
FY12E
101,189
61,852
39,337
1,681
330
41,348
1,635
503
35
39,174
1,276
37,898
9,755
28,143
28.5
5.3
25.7
1.3
6.9
FY13E
120,237
74,321
45,916
1,683
363
47,962
2,191
564
35
45,172
2,129
43,043
11,109
31,935
32.3
5.8
25.8
1.2
6.1
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
RuralElectrificationCorporation
CompanyDescription
RuralElectrification Corporation(REC),incorporatedin1969,isaleadingpublicinstitution
primarily involved in the financing of T&D and generation projects across India. It was
establishedbyGoIforthepurposeofdevelopingtheT&DinfrastructureinruralIndiaand
currentlyactsasanodalagencyforRGGVY,aGoIinitiativeforruralelectrification.Overthe
lastdecade,thecompanyhasdiversifiedintourbanareasanditplaysastrategicroleinGoI
plan to improve the transmission and distribution infrastructure of India. REC, along with
PowerFinanceCorporation(PFC),isthenodalagencyforAPDRP,aGoIinitiativetoimprove
thefinancialviabilityofstatepowerutilities.LoanstoT&Dprojectsconstituted~50%tothe
totalloanbookasonMarch31,2011.
InvestmentTheme
Over the Eleventh and Twelfth Five Year plans (FY0717), India targets to add ~170 GW,
creating huge investment opportunities across the power value chain. High growth, long
termvisibilityandsustainablereturns,coupledwithdemandsupplygap(~12%peakdeficit)
andrisingenergyconsumption,makethesectoranattractiveinvestmentoption.REC,being
a specialised power financier, plays a strategic role in GoIs ongoing financing plans for
development of the power sector. Superior domain knowledge, financing expertise and
government support will enable it to leverage emerging financing opportunities in the
powersectoroverEleventhandTwelfthplans(FY0717)aswell.Accordingtotheestimates
ofWorkingGroupofPower,RECisexpectedtodisburseatleastINR592bnintheEleventh
Plan(againsttheexpecteddisbursementofINR812bnforPFC).WebelieveRECwillbeable
to fund 1520% of its total funding requirement in the Eleventh Plan. We, thus, expect its
loanbooktogrowat17%CAGRoverFY1214EdeliveringaROAEof~20%overFY1214.
KeyRisks
RECs growth depends on its ability to remain effectively competitive in the power
financingspaceandtopassthehighercostoffundstocustomers.Also,benefitsunder
Section54ECarebeingcurtailedcontinuouslyandthereareuncertaintiessurrounding
thelevelofbenefitsRECwillreceivefromtheseinstruments,goingforward.
RECs gross NPAs are at near zero levels. Any major slippage or ineffective recoveries
canraiseNPAssignificantly,adverselyaffectingprofitabilityandgrowth.
REC is subject to risk arising from assetliability mismatch as majority of its loans are
longterm in nature due to wholesale financing of large power projects, whereas its
borrowingsarerelativelyforshorterterm.
RECs ability to borrow from banks may be restricted with the limit on exposure of a
bankininfrastructurefinancecompaniesat25%ofbankscapitalfunds(tierI+tierII).
RECisexposedtoprojectspecificandgeneralrisksinherenttothepowersector.Any
delayinthepowersectorprojectsduetolackoffuelsupplies,supplyofkeyequipment
or delay in getting environment clearances can adversely affect the profitability of
powerprojects,increasingthecompanysNPAs.
Therehavebeenqualificationsbyauditorswithrespecttointernalcontrolandaudit
system;thesedonothaveanyquantifiableimpactasofnow,butcouldimpactRECs
businessinthelongterm
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
BankingandFinancialServices
FinancialStatements
Incomestatement
YeartoMarch
Interestincome
Interestexpended
Netinterestincome
Noninterestincome
Incomefromoperations
Otherincome
Netrevenues
Operatingexpense
Employeeexp
Depreciation/amortisation
Otheropex
Preprovisionprofit
Provisions
Loanlossprovisions
Profitbeforetax
Provisionfortax
ProfitAfterTax
Extraordinaries
ReportedPAT
Basicsharesoutstanding(mn)
BasicEPS(INR)
Dilutedequityshares(mn)
DilutedEPS(INR)
Dividendpershare(INR)
Dividendpayout(%)
Growthratios(%)
YeartoMarch
Revenues
NIIgrowth
Opexgrowth
PPPgrowth
Provisionsgrowth
Netprofit
Operatingratios
YeartoMarch
Yieldonadvances
Yieldonassets
Netinterestmargins
Costoffunds
Spread
Costincome
Taxrate
FY10
65,687
39,256
26,431
1,189
27,620
200
27,820
1,326
1,171
22
133
26,494
2
2
26,492
6,478
20,014
20,014
987
20.3
987
20.3
6.5
32.1
FY10
37.5
39.6
19.4
38.6
(93.6)
45.2
FY10
10.9
11.0
4.4
7.8
3.3
4.8
24.5
FY11
82,318
48,510
33,808
1,481
35,289
300
35,589
1,674
1,275
30
369
33,915
2
2
33,913
8,847
25,066
633
25,699
987
25.4
987
25.4
7.5
29.5
FY11
27.9
27.9
26.3
28.0
25.2
FY11
10.9
11.0
4.5
7.7
3.3
4.7
26.1
FY12E
101,189
61,852
39,337
1,681
41,018
330
41,348
2,174
1,635
35
503
39,174
1,276
1,276
37,898
9,755
28,143
(333)
27,810
987
28.5
987
28.5
8.0
28.1
FY12E
16.2
16.4
29.9
15.5
NA
12.3
FY12E
11.0
11.0
4.3
7.9
3.1
5.3
25.7
FY13E
120,237
74,321
45,916
1,683
47,599
363
47,962
2,790
2,191
35
564
45,172
2,129
2,129
43,043
11,109
31,935
(296)
31,639
987
32.3
987
32.3
8.5
26.3
FY13E
16.0
16.7
28.3
15.3
66.8
13.5
FY13E
10.9
10.9
4.2
7.9
3.1
5.8
25.8
(INRmn)
FY14E
138,886
86,422
52,463
1,719
54,182
399
54,582
3,314
2,648
35
631
51,268
2,568
2,568
48,699
12,582
36,117
(296)
35,821
987
36.6
987
36.6
8.5
23.2
FY14E
13.8
14.3
18.8
13.5
20.6
13.1
FY14E
10.8
10.9
4.1
7.9
3.0
6.1
25.8
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
RuralElectrificationCorporation
Balancesheet
Ason31stMarch
Equitycapital
Reserves&surplus
Networth
Reservefordoubtfuldebts
Securedloans
Unsecuredloans
Deferredtaxliability
Totalliabilities
Loans
Investments
Totalcurrentassets
Totalcurrentliabilities&provisions
Netcurrentassets
Fixedassets
Totalassets
Loangrowth
Depositgrowth
EAgrowth
GrossNPAratio
NetNPAratio
Provisioncoverage
Bookvaluepershare(INR)
Sanctionsanddisbursements
YeartoMarch
Sanctions(INRmn)
Disbursements(INRmn)
Disbursementstosanctionratio(%)
Disbursementsgrowth(%)
Sanctionsgrowth(%)
RoEdecomposition(%)
YeartoMarch
Netinterestincome/assets
Noninterestincome/assets
Investmentprofits/Assets
Netrevenues/assets
Operatingexpense/assets
Provisions/assets
Taxes/assets
Totalcosts/assets
ROA
Equity/assets
ROAE(%)
FY10
9,875
96,643
106,518
4,282
462,447
97,035
(74)
670,208
664,520
9,100
20,837
25,149
(4,312)
900
670,208
29.3
24.5
28.6
90.0
112.2
FY10
453,570
211,325
46.6
23.2
11.3
FY10
4.4
0.2
4.7
0.2
1.1
1.3
3.4
15.4
21.9
FY11
9,875
112,750
122,624
5,263
462,674
237,364
(128)
827,798
821,321
8,124
34,447
36,976
(2,529)
881
827,798
23.6
25.1
23.5
90.0
129.5
FY11
664,210
245,190
36.9
16.0
46.4
FY11
4.5
0.2
4.8
0.2
1.2
1.4
3.4
16.0
21.0
FY12E
9,875
130,241
140,116
6,338
568,648
291,731
(128)
1,006,706
1,002,734
8,517
28,519
33,939
(5,420)
876
1,006,706
22.1
22.9
21.6
0.5
0.4
20.0
148.3
FY12E
650,926
268,843
41.3
9.6
(2.0)
FY12E
4.3
0.2
4.5
0.2
0.1
1.1
1.4
3.1
15.0
20.5
FY13E
9,875
150,841
160,716
7,557
676,325
346,972
(128)
1,191,442
1,187,079
8,930
35,472
40,910
(5,437)
871
1,191,442
18.4
18.9
18.4
0.8
0.5
30.0
170.4
FY13E
716,018
304,673
42.6
13.3
10.0
FY13E
4.2
0.2
4.4
0.3
0.2
1.0
1.5
2.9
14.3
20.3
(INRmn)
FY14E
9,875
175,549
185,424
8,850
776,848
398,543
(128)
1,369,537
1,367,814
9,364
38,501
47,008
(8,507)
866
1,369,537
15.2
14.9
15.0
1.0
0.7
35.0
196.7
FY14E
787,620
323,185
41.0
6.1
10.0
FY14E
4.1
0.1
4.3
0.3
0.2
1.0
1.4
2.8
14.2
19.9
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
BankingandFinancialServices
Valuationparameters
YeartoMarch
DilutedEPS(INR)
YoYgrowth(%)
Bookvaluepershare(INR)
DilutedPE(x)
Price/BV(x)
Dividendyield(%)
FY10
20.3
26.2
112.2
9.8
1.8
3.3
FY11
25.4
25.2
129.5
7.8
1.5
3.8
FY12E
28.5
12.3
148.3
6.9
1.3
4.0
FY13E
32.3
13.5
170.4
6.1
1.2
4.3
FY14E
36.6
13.1
196.7
5.4
1.0
4.3
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited
RATING&INTERPRETATION
Company
Absolute
Relative
Relative
reco
reco
risk
AllahabadBank
REDUCE
SU
BankofBaroda
HOLD
SP
HDFC
HOLD
ICICIBank
InfrastructureDevelopmentFinanceCo
Company
Absolute
Relative
Relative
reco
reco
Risk
AxisBank
BUY
SO
FederalBank
BUY
SO
SP
HDFCBank
HOLD
SP
BUY
SO
IndianOverseasBank
HOLD
SU
HOLD
SP
INGVysya
HOLD
SP
REDUCE
SU
HOLD
SP
Ltd
KarnatakaBank
BUY
SO
KotakMahindraBank
LICHousingFinance
HOLD
SP
Mahindra&MahindraFinancial
ManappuramGeneralFinance
HOLD
SP
OrientalBankOfCommerce
REDUCE
SU
BUY
SO
PunjabNationalBank
REDUCE
SU
Services
PowerFinanceCorp
RelianceCapital
BUY
SO
RuralElectrificationCorporation
BUY
SO
ShriramCityUnionFinance
BUY
SO
SouthIndianBank
HOLD
SP
HOLD
SP
UnionBankOfIndia
HOLD
SP
BUY
SO
StateBankofIndia
YesBank
ABSOLUTERATING
Ratings
Buy
Hold
Reduce
RELATIVERETURNSRATING
Ratings
Criteria
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
RELATIVERISKRATING
Ratings
Criteria
Low (L)
Medium (M)
High (H)
SECTORRATING
Ratings
Criteria
Overweight (OW)
Equalweight (EW)
Underweight (UW)
EdelweissSecuritiesLimited