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RESULTUPDATE

RURALELECTRIFICATION CORP
Concernsoverassetquality;optimismoverdevelopmentsonSEBs
IndiaEquityResearch|BankingandFinancialServices

RuralElectrificationCorp(REC)reportedaPATofINR7.7bnasagainstour
expectationofINR7.9bn(growthof16%YoYand24%QoQ).Thisincludes
INR866mninforexMTM writeback.Keyhighlightsare:1)INR2.23bnof
exposure to Konaseema project classified as NPL; provisioning hit of
INR240mnandinterestincomereversalofINR250mn,2)Employeecosts
more than double YoY/QoQ as it provided for additional incentives for
the period FY1011, 3) NIMs came off 13bps to 4.34% mainly due to
incomereversal,4)Disbursementgrowthmoderatedto10%duetoweak
December month and 5) interim dividend of INR5 per share; dividend
payouttobemaintainednear30%(implyingfinaldividendof~INR3.0per
share).Atcurrentvaluationsof1.2xFY13Ebookand6.1xFY13Eearnings,
theriskrewardisfavourable.WemaintainBUYwithTPofINR240.

NIMssustained;stayedawayfrombanksborrowing

AbsoluteRating

BUY

RatingRelativetoSector

Outperformer

RiskRatingRelativetoSector

Medium

SectorRelativetoMarket

Equalweight

MARKETDATA(R:RURL.BO,B:RECLIN)
CMP

:INR198

TargetPrice

:INR240

52weekrange(INR)

:289/144

Shareinissue(mn)

:987.5

Mcap(INRbn/USDmn)

:195/3,904

Avg.DailyVol.BSE/NSE(000) :2,941.6
SHAREHOLDINGPATTERN(%)

Borrowingwasskewedinfavourofbonds/debentureswheretheincrementalcostwas
9.6%.IthasfurtherraisedUSD100mninECBinQ3FY12(overandaboveUSD300mnin
H1FY12). With banks having aggressively raised base rates in Q2FY12, REC has
completely stayed away from bank borrowings since past three quarters (proportion
hascomeofffrom16%inFY11to7%inQ3FY12).Theincreaseinblendedcostoffunds
was capped at 11bps to 8.4% whereas yields came off 6bps due to interest reversal.
Consequently, NIMs came off 13bps QoQ to 4.34% in line with expectation.
ManagementindicatedthatinFY12E,INR120bnofassetsandINR90bnofliabilitieswill
comeupforrepricing.Wearebuildinginmarginsof4.1%4.3%forFY1214E.

Outlookandvaluations:PositivedevelopmentsatSEBs;BUY

Others
27.2%
Promoters*
43.2%
FIIs
27.1%
MFs,FIs&
Banks
2.5%
*Promoterspledgedshares
:

NIL

(%ofshareinissue)

REC has underperformed broader markets by 20% over the past one year, led by
concerns surrounding the power sector. However, some positive developments have
taken place for SEBs recently (tariff hikes, government support etc). Banks are
reluctanttoprovidefurtherfundstoailingdiscomsandrestructuringisinevitablefor
working capital loans. However, RECs lower share in working capital finance and
limiteddependenceonprivateprojectsoffercomfort.Ledby17%CAGRinloanassets
and relatively stable NIMs, we expect 13% earnings CAGR and average ROEs of 20%
over FY1214E. The stock is trading at 1.2x FY13E book and 6.1x FY13E earnings. We
maintainBUY/SectorOutperformerrecommendation/ratingonthestock.

Financials

YeartoMarch

EDELWEISS4DRATINGS

PRICEPERFORMANCE(%)
Stock

Nifty

EWBanksand
Financial
ServicesIndex

1month

22.9

7.0

3months

3.6

(0.1)

12.8
0.2

12months

(33.7)

(11.4)

(9.5)

KunalShah
+912240407579
kunal.shah@edelcap.com

NileshParikh

Q3FY12 Q3FY11 Growth(%) Q2FY12 Growth(%)

Netint.inc.(INRmn)
10,917

8,480

28.7

PAT(INRmn)

7,694

6,641

DilutedEPS(INR)

7.8

6.7

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

33,808

39,337

45,916

8,241

32.5

15.9

6,229

23.5

25,066

28,143

31,935

15.9

6.3

23.5

25.4

28.5

32.3

BVpershare(INR)

130

148

170

Price/Earnings(x)

7.8

6.9

6.1

Price/Book(x)

1.5

1.3

1.2

EdelweissResearchisalsoavailableonwww.edelresearch.com,
BloombergEDEL<GO>,ThomsonFirstCall,ReutersandFactset.

+912240635470
nilesh.parikh@edelcap.com

SuruchiChaudhary
+912266233316
suruchi.chaudhary@edelcap.com

January25,2012

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BankingandFinancialServices

AssetqualityslipsonKonaseemagasbasedproject
ThecompanyhasclassifiedINR2.23bnofexposuretoKonaseemagasbasedprojectasNPL
onwhichitmadeaprovisioningofINR240mnwhiletherewasaninterestincomereversalof
INR250mn.GrossNPLsnowstandat0.52%andwithprovisioningcoverageof14%,netNPAs
standat0.45%.

Disbursementgrowthmoderates;someshorttermfundinginQ3FY12
WhilethedisbursementmomentumpickeduppostQ2FY12,Decembermonthsawamuted
offtake as disbursement growth moderated to 6% YoY to INR63bn. Disbursements include
INR11.5bn of short term loans primarily provided to Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, Punjab state
utilities against government guarantee and based on conditionalities of tariff hikes, AT&C
lossreductionetc.Loanbooksustained25%YoYgrowthtoINR950bn.Moredisappointing
hasbeenthedeclineinsanctionstomerelyINR88bn(comparedtoarunrateofINR160bn
175bn). While sanctions picked up in the generation segment, T&D segment (including
RGGVY)sawlowersanctions.Wearebuildinginadisbursementgrowthof10%overFY12
14andexpecttheloanbooktopost17%CAGRtoINR1.4tn.

Otherhighlights

REC had hedged USD500mn of forex borrowings in September 2011 to minimise the
impact of MTM losses. Now the unhedged position stands at a mere USD250mn
(comparedtoUSD970mninFY11).

EmployeecosthasjumpedsignificantlyuptoINR680mn(up137%YoYand125%QoQ)
as the company provided an extra incentive of 66% to employees for FY1011 (now
followingasimilarsalarystructurelikePFC).

Chart2:Disbursementgrowthmomentummoderates
45
36

120

27

Generation

T&D

Shortterm

Generation

T&D

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q210

Q110

40

Q210

18

Q110

80

Q409

(INRbn)

160

Q409

(INRbn)

Chart1:SanctionsdipinT&Dsegment
200

Shortterm
Source:Company

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RuralElectrificationCorporation

Chart3:Stayedawayfrombankborrowingscompletely
100.0

Chart4:Borrowingsskewinfavorofforexandbonds
100.0
80.0

60.0

60.0

(%)

(%)

80.0

40.0

40.0

20.0

20.0

Taxablebonds
CP

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q210

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Banks,Fis,etc.

Banks,FIs,CP,etc Foreign

Chart5:NIMssustainedduetocommendableliabilitymanagement
13.0

5.0

11.4

4.6

9.8

4.2

8.2

3.8

6.6

3.4

5.0

3.0

(%)

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q210

Taxablebonds

Capitalgains
Foreign

Yieldonadvances
Costoffunds

Chart6:Assetqualityslips(KonaseemaprojectclassifiedasNPL)
0.9

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q210

Q110

Q409

(%)

Capitalgains

Q110

Q409

NIMs

100.0
80.0

0.5

60.0

0.4

40.0

0.2

20.0

0.0

0.0

GrossNPA

NetNPA

Q312

Q212

Q112

Q411

Q311

Q211

Q111

Q410

Q310

Q210

Q110

Q409

Q309

Q209

Q109

(%)

0.7

(%)

Q110

Q409

0.0
0.0

Provisioncoverage(RHS)
Source:Company

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BankingandFinancialServices

Financialsnapshot
YeartoMarch
Interestincome
Interestexp
Netincomefromops
Netoperatingincome
Otherincome
Netrevenues
Staffcosts
Otherexpenses
Depreciation
Preprovopprofit(ppop)
Provisions
Profitbeforetax
Tax
PAT
DilutedEPS(INR)
Costtoincome(%)
TaxRate
Price/Book(x)
Price/Earnings

Q3FY12
26,500
15,583
10,917
136
354
11,407
680
92
7
10,629
241
10,388
2,693
7,694
7.8
6.8
25.9

Q3FY11
20,860
12,380
8,480
564
357
9,401
287
92
8
9,015

9,015
2,374
6,641
6.7
4.1
26.3

%Change
27.0
25.9
28.7
(75.9)
(0.8)
21.3
137.1
(0.1)
(6.5)
17.9
15.2
13.5
15.9
15.9

Q2FY12
25,145
16,904
8,241
176
379
8,796
302
145
9
8,341

8,341
2,112
6,229
6.3
5.2
25.3

%Change
5.4
(7.8)
32.5
(22.8)
(6.5)
29.7
124.8
(36.5)
(17.2)
27.4
24.5
27.5
23.5
23.5

FY11
82,318
48,510
33,808
1,481
300
35,589
1,275
369
30
33,915
2
33,913
8,847
25,066
25.4
4.7
26.1
1.5
7.8

(INRmn)

FY12E
101,189
61,852
39,337
1,681
330
41,348
1,635
503
35
39,174
1,276
37,898
9,755
28,143
28.5
5.3
25.7
1.3
6.9

FY13E
120,237
74,321
45,916
1,683
363
47,962
2,191
564
35
45,172
2,129
43,043
11,109
31,935
32.3
5.8
25.8
1.2
6.1

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RuralElectrificationCorporation

CompanyDescription
RuralElectrification Corporation(REC),incorporatedin1969,isaleadingpublicinstitution
primarily involved in the financing of T&D and generation projects across India. It was
establishedbyGoIforthepurposeofdevelopingtheT&DinfrastructureinruralIndiaand
currentlyactsasanodalagencyforRGGVY,aGoIinitiativeforruralelectrification.Overthe
lastdecade,thecompanyhasdiversifiedintourbanareasanditplaysastrategicroleinGoI
plan to improve the transmission and distribution infrastructure of India. REC, along with
PowerFinanceCorporation(PFC),isthenodalagencyforAPDRP,aGoIinitiativetoimprove
thefinancialviabilityofstatepowerutilities.LoanstoT&Dprojectsconstituted~50%tothe
totalloanbookasonMarch31,2011.

InvestmentTheme
Over the Eleventh and Twelfth Five Year plans (FY0717), India targets to add ~170 GW,
creating huge investment opportunities across the power value chain. High growth, long
termvisibilityandsustainablereturns,coupledwithdemandsupplygap(~12%peakdeficit)
andrisingenergyconsumption,makethesectoranattractiveinvestmentoption.REC,being
a specialised power financier, plays a strategic role in GoIs ongoing financing plans for
development of the power sector. Superior domain knowledge, financing expertise and
government support will enable it to leverage emerging financing opportunities in the
powersectoroverEleventhandTwelfthplans(FY0717)aswell.Accordingtotheestimates
ofWorkingGroupofPower,RECisexpectedtodisburseatleastINR592bnintheEleventh
Plan(againsttheexpecteddisbursementofINR812bnforPFC).WebelieveRECwillbeable
to fund 1520% of its total funding requirement in the Eleventh Plan. We, thus, expect its
loanbooktogrowat17%CAGRoverFY1214EdeliveringaROAEof~20%overFY1214.

KeyRisks

RECs growth depends on its ability to remain effectively competitive in the power
financingspaceandtopassthehighercostoffundstocustomers.Also,benefitsunder
Section54ECarebeingcurtailedcontinuouslyandthereareuncertaintiessurrounding
thelevelofbenefitsRECwillreceivefromtheseinstruments,goingforward.

RECs gross NPAs are at near zero levels. Any major slippage or ineffective recoveries
canraiseNPAssignificantly,adverselyaffectingprofitabilityandgrowth.

REC is subject to risk arising from assetliability mismatch as majority of its loans are
longterm in nature due to wholesale financing of large power projects, whereas its
borrowingsarerelativelyforshorterterm.

RECs ability to borrow from banks may be restricted with the limit on exposure of a
bankininfrastructurefinancecompaniesat25%ofbankscapitalfunds(tierI+tierII).

RECisexposedtoprojectspecificandgeneralrisksinherenttothepowersector.Any
delayinthepowersectorprojectsduetolackoffuelsupplies,supplyofkeyequipment
or delay in getting environment clearances can adversely affect the profitability of
powerprojects,increasingthecompanysNPAs.

Therehavebeenqualificationsbyauditorswithrespecttointernalcontrolandaudit
system;thesedonothaveanyquantifiableimpactasofnow,butcouldimpactRECs
businessinthelongterm

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BankingandFinancialServices

FinancialStatements

Incomestatement
YeartoMarch
Interestincome
Interestexpended
Netinterestincome
Noninterestincome
Incomefromoperations
Otherincome
Netrevenues
Operatingexpense
Employeeexp
Depreciation/amortisation
Otheropex
Preprovisionprofit
Provisions
Loanlossprovisions
Profitbeforetax
Provisionfortax
ProfitAfterTax
Extraordinaries
ReportedPAT
Basicsharesoutstanding(mn)
BasicEPS(INR)
Dilutedequityshares(mn)
DilutedEPS(INR)
Dividendpershare(INR)
Dividendpayout(%)

Growthratios(%)
YeartoMarch
Revenues
NIIgrowth
Opexgrowth
PPPgrowth
Provisionsgrowth
Netprofit

Operatingratios
YeartoMarch
Yieldonadvances
Yieldonassets
Netinterestmargins
Costoffunds
Spread
Costincome
Taxrate

FY10
65,687
39,256
26,431
1,189
27,620
200
27,820
1,326
1,171
22
133
26,494
2
2
26,492
6,478
20,014

20,014
987
20.3
987
20.3
6.5
32.1

FY10
37.5
39.6
19.4
38.6
(93.6)
45.2

FY10
10.9
11.0
4.4
7.8
3.3
4.8
24.5

FY11
82,318
48,510
33,808
1,481
35,289
300
35,589
1,674
1,275
30
369
33,915
2
2
33,913
8,847
25,066
633
25,699
987
25.4
987
25.4
7.5
29.5

FY11
27.9
27.9
26.3
28.0

25.2

FY11
10.9
11.0
4.5
7.7
3.3
4.7
26.1

FY12E
101,189
61,852
39,337
1,681
41,018
330
41,348
2,174
1,635
35
503
39,174
1,276
1,276
37,898
9,755
28,143
(333)
27,810
987
28.5
987
28.5
8.0
28.1

FY12E
16.2
16.4
29.9
15.5
NA
12.3

FY12E
11.0
11.0
4.3
7.9
3.1
5.3
25.7

FY13E
120,237
74,321
45,916
1,683
47,599
363
47,962
2,790
2,191
35
564
45,172
2,129
2,129
43,043
11,109
31,935
(296)
31,639
987
32.3
987
32.3
8.5
26.3

FY13E
16.0
16.7
28.3
15.3
66.8
13.5

FY13E
10.9
10.9
4.2
7.9
3.1
5.8
25.8

(INRmn)
FY14E
138,886
86,422
52,463
1,719
54,182
399
54,582
3,314
2,648
35
631
51,268
2,568
2,568
48,699
12,582
36,117
(296)
35,821
987
36.6
987
36.6
8.5
23.2

FY14E
13.8
14.3
18.8
13.5
20.6
13.1

FY14E
10.8
10.9
4.1
7.9
3.0
6.1
25.8

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RuralElectrificationCorporation

Balancesheet
Ason31stMarch
Equitycapital
Reserves&surplus
Networth
Reservefordoubtfuldebts
Securedloans
Unsecuredloans
Deferredtaxliability
Totalliabilities
Loans
Investments
Totalcurrentassets
Totalcurrentliabilities&provisions
Netcurrentassets
Fixedassets
Totalassets
Loangrowth
Depositgrowth
EAgrowth
GrossNPAratio
NetNPAratio
Provisioncoverage
Bookvaluepershare(INR)

Sanctionsanddisbursements
YeartoMarch
Sanctions(INRmn)
Disbursements(INRmn)
Disbursementstosanctionratio(%)
Disbursementsgrowth(%)
Sanctionsgrowth(%)

RoEdecomposition(%)
YeartoMarch
Netinterestincome/assets
Noninterestincome/assets
Investmentprofits/Assets
Netrevenues/assets
Operatingexpense/assets
Provisions/assets
Taxes/assets
Totalcosts/assets
ROA
Equity/assets
ROAE(%)

FY10
9,875
96,643
106,518
4,282
462,447
97,035
(74)
670,208
664,520
9,100
20,837
25,149
(4,312)
900
670,208
29.3
24.5
28.6

90.0
112.2

FY10
453,570
211,325
46.6
23.2
11.3

FY10
4.4
0.2

4.7
0.2

1.1
1.3
3.4
15.4
21.9

FY11
9,875
112,750
122,624
5,263
462,674
237,364
(128)
827,798
821,321
8,124
34,447
36,976
(2,529)
881
827,798
23.6
25.1
23.5

90.0
129.5

FY11
664,210
245,190
36.9
16.0
46.4

FY11
4.5
0.2

4.8
0.2

1.2
1.4
3.4
16.0
21.0

FY12E
9,875
130,241
140,116
6,338
568,648
291,731
(128)
1,006,706
1,002,734
8,517
28,519
33,939
(5,420)
876
1,006,706
22.1
22.9
21.6
0.5
0.4
20.0
148.3

FY12E
650,926
268,843
41.3
9.6
(2.0)

FY12E
4.3
0.2

4.5
0.2
0.1
1.1
1.4
3.1
15.0
20.5

FY13E
9,875
150,841
160,716
7,557
676,325
346,972
(128)
1,191,442
1,187,079
8,930
35,472
40,910
(5,437)
871
1,191,442
18.4
18.9
18.4
0.8
0.5
30.0
170.4

FY13E
716,018
304,673
42.6
13.3
10.0

FY13E
4.2
0.2

4.4
0.3
0.2
1.0
1.5
2.9
14.3
20.3

(INRmn)
FY14E
9,875
175,549
185,424
8,850
776,848
398,543
(128)
1,369,537
1,367,814
9,364
38,501
47,008
(8,507)
866
1,369,537
15.2
14.9
15.0
1.0
0.7
35.0
196.7

FY14E
787,620
323,185
41.0
6.1
10.0

FY14E
4.1
0.1

4.3
0.3
0.2
1.0
1.4
2.8
14.2
19.9

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BankingandFinancialServices
Valuationparameters
YeartoMarch
DilutedEPS(INR)
YoYgrowth(%)
Bookvaluepershare(INR)
DilutedPE(x)
Price/BV(x)
Dividendyield(%)

FY10
20.3
26.2
112.2
9.8
1.8
3.3

FY11
25.4
25.2
129.5
7.8
1.5
3.8

FY12E
28.5
12.3
148.3
6.9
1.3
4.0

FY13E
32.3
13.5
170.4
6.1
1.2
4.3

FY14E
36.6
13.1
196.7
5.4
1.0
4.3

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RATING&INTERPRETATION

Company

Absolute

Relative

Relative

reco

reco

risk

AllahabadBank

REDUCE

SU

BankofBaroda

HOLD

SP

HDFC

HOLD

ICICIBank
InfrastructureDevelopmentFinanceCo

Company

Absolute

Relative

Relative

reco

reco

Risk

AxisBank

BUY

SO

FederalBank

BUY

SO

SP

HDFCBank

HOLD

SP

BUY

SO

IndianOverseasBank

HOLD

SU

HOLD

SP

INGVysya

HOLD

SP

REDUCE

SU

HOLD

SP

Ltd
KarnatakaBank

BUY

SO

KotakMahindraBank

LICHousingFinance

HOLD

SP

Mahindra&MahindraFinancial

ManappuramGeneralFinance

HOLD

SP

OrientalBankOfCommerce

REDUCE

SU

BUY

SO

PunjabNationalBank

REDUCE

SU

Services
PowerFinanceCorp
RelianceCapital

BUY

SO

RuralElectrificationCorporation

BUY

SO

ShriramCityUnionFinance

BUY

SO

SouthIndianBank

HOLD

SP

HOLD

SP

UnionBankOfIndia

HOLD

SP

BUY

SO

StateBankofIndia
YesBank

ABSOLUTERATING
Ratings

Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy

More than 15%

Hold

Between 15% and - 5%

Reduce

Less than -5%

RELATIVERETURNSRATING
Ratings

Criteria

Sector Outperformer (SO)

Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Performer (SP)

Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return


Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Underperformer (SU)

Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return

Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector

RELATIVERISKRATING
Ratings

Criteria

Low (L)

Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Medium (M)

Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector

High (H)

Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model

SECTORRATING
Ratings

Criteria

Overweight (OW)

Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return

Equalweight (EW)

Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return

Underweight (UW)

Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return

Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return

EdelweissSecuritiesLimited

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