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HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
CompanyProfile Worldsleadingdesignerandmanufacturerofheavyweight(651+cc) motorcyclesandrelatedproductsandmerchandise KeyOperations:HarleyDavidsonMotorCompanyandHarley DavidsonFinancialServices RecentMilestones o 2008:105th AnniversaryofHarleyDavidson o 2009:KeithE.Wandell namedPresidentandCEO;Restructuring Planlaunched o 2010:Indiaselectedassecondinternational o assemblysite
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
CompanyProfile AccountingAnalysis FinancialAnalysis MarketingAnalysis Recommendations Conclusion
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis PerformanceMetrics
HOG asof9/30/10 EPS P/E Price/Sales InventoryT/O A/RTurnover CurrentRatio Debt/Equity LTDebt/Assets ROE ROA GrossMargin NetMargin asof12/31/10 Price/Book Beta EBITDMargin 3.48 2.32 15.18 1.62 2.08 5.35 6.84 3.04 15.36 2.95 1.11 45.16 11.76 1.77 13.00 0.65 47.88 1.46 9.20 15.70 1.83 280.24 61.12 17.37 3.71 36.65 7.44 0.34 43.38 0.39 5.40 13.40 2.19 0.00 0.00 41.38 26.00 29.16 10.13 1.48 N/A 0.44 5.10 8.00 1.77 384.20 30.53 13.82 1.05 22.48 0.88 0.02 404.31 2.51 3.30 52.70 3.54 0.00 0.00 4.71 3.78 16.96 4.16 4.02 18.06 1.07 6.80 23.80 1.60 67.13 20.57 70.45 21.12 25.98 8.14 ACAT BC MPX PII
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis PerformanceMetrics InventoryTurnover:increasingamountoffunds tiedupininventory
InventoryTurnover
16.0x 12.0x Multiple 8.0x 4.0x 0.0x 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis PerformanceMetrics AccountsReceivableTurnover:decreaseduetodropinRevenuesin recentyears
AccountsReceivableTurnover
50.0x 40.0x Multiple 30.0x 20.0x 10.0x 0.0x 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis PerformanceMetrics LTDebttoAssets:highrelianceondebtfinancing, increasingovertime
DebttoAssetsRatio
70% 60% 50% Multiple 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis MethodologyandDisclosures InventoryValuation:combinationofbothLIFOandFIFO,dependent onwherematerials/goodsaresourced;decreasingLIFOReserve indicatesatrendtosourcemoreinventoryfromabroad
LIFOReserve
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
$inMillions
Year
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis MethodologyandDisclosures Goodwill Impairmentof$28.4millionin2009,duetosignificantlossesand writedownsinHDFSsloanportfolio; HDFSwasacquiredasEaglemark FinancialServicesin1995for$43.0 millioninexcessoffairvalue
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
AccountingAnalysis MethodologyandDisclosures SafetyRecallCampaignLiabilities:increasesoverlastthreeyears duetopossibleincreaseduseofforeignpartsandcomponentsof lesserquality
SafetyRecallCampaignLiability
8 7 6 $inMillions 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2008 Year 2009 $3.7 $4.6 $6.7
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
CompanyProfile AccountingAnalysis FinancialAnalysis MarketingAnalysis Recommendations Conclusion
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
FinancialAnalysisOverview(2010Q3vs.2009Q3)
KeyMetrics Revenue (HDMC+HDFS) Revenue(HDMC) GrossProfit OperatingExpense EBITDA NetIncome(Excl.Unusual Items) DilutedEPS(Excl.Unusual Items) B/W 1% (2%) 25% 11% 35% 66% 66%
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
FinancialAnalysis Profitability
Profitability
5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 2005 EPS 2007 2009 2010Q2 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Millions
EPSBeforeAbnormalItems
Sales(Revenuein$MM)
EBITDA&EBITMargins
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2010Q2
EBITDAMargin(ExclAbnornalItems) EBITMargin(ExclAbornmalItems)
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
FinancialAnalysis Leverage
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2007 DebttoAssetratio 2009 2010Q2 DebttoEquityratio
LeverageRatio
TheDebttoAssetRatio isat78%in2010Q3
FreeCashFlow
2007
2009
2010Q2
FreeCashFlow($MM)
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
FinancialAnalysis LiquidityStanding
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2005 2007 2009 Currentratio 2010Q2
CurrentRatio
LineofCreditUtilization
2006
2007
2008
2009 Lineofcreditutilization
TotalAvailableLineOfCredit($MM)
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
FinancialAnalysis Valuation DiscountedCashFlow o Discountedby~11%WACC o ProjectedSalesgrowthof8.8%CAGRfrom20102015 o Terminalgrowthrateof4% o SensitivityAnalysisofthestockPrice $3135 AsofDec11th ,2010HDstockclosedat$33.69 TheStockispricedwithinacceptablerangebythemarket
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
CompanyProfile AccountingAnalysis FinancialAnalysis MarketingAnalysis Recommendations Conclusion
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis ProductsandServices
Bikes HarleyDavidson Motorcycles (80%Revenue) Trikes Parts Merchandise
WholesaleFinancing
RetailFinancing
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis CustomerSegmentation
CustomerDemographicsby Age
55 MedianAge 50 45 40 35 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 2008
CustomerDemographicsby Gender
100% Customers(%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2007 2006 2005 Year 2004 2003 Male Female
Consistent8889%male ownershiprate
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis MarketShare
UnitShipments
250000 200000 Units 150000 100000 50000 0 2008 Year 2009 UnitedStates International
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis DistributionChannels Distribution
IndependentDistributors HDOnly Buellonly HDandBuell Total SecondaryRetailLocations AlternateRetailOutlets SeasonalRetailOutlets Total
NorthAmerica US 0 Canada 1 Europe Region 3 AsiaPacific Region 0 LatinAmerica Region 0
FullServiceDealerships
389 0 282 671 25 0 46 71 52 2 315 369 110 2 86 198 16 0 18 34
NonTraditionalRetailers
87 83 10 180 3 5 1 9 2 8 0 10 4 6 0 10 6 15 1 22
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis CompetitivePositioningStrategy
Value
Quality
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis HistoricBrandMeaning
HarleyDavidsonLifestyle Freedom,Rebellion 1MMinHOGBrandCommunity Senseofbelonging Highqualitydesign andproduct
TheHOGMission: MakingtheHarleyDavidsonDreamaWayofLife
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
MarketingAnalysis LossofBrandEquity Downfrom#74to#98inglobal brandranking(Interbrand)dueto: o Agingmarketproblem o Lossofrebelliousbrandimage o Negativecompanypress o Massmarketingstrategies havedilutedthebrand
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation RefocusMarketingStrategyaroundBrand
RELEVANCE
Freedom
Authenticity
CREDIBILITY
REBEL
DIFFERENTIATION
STRETCH
Badboy
American
SymantecBrandOpportunityFramework
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation RefocusMarketingStrategyaroundBrand Forallprint,TV,andonline messagingchannelseliminate anyimagesthatcontradicta rebelliousimage HDshouldlimittheamountof lowendapparelsoldintheU.S. market HDshouldabandontheWERIDE Magazine,oranyotherobvious femaleorientedmarketing
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation MarkettoYoungerDemographic Relyonundergroundmediachannels,suchastheVice Magazineblog AvoidusingTVorlargescaleeventswhichcouldappeartoo mainstream UtilizeretroAmericanarebelliousimages,whichcouldgive thebrandamoreclassicvintagefeel(i.e.JamesDeanmore thanaHellsAngel).
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation MarkettoYoungerDemographic
PBRsalesarenowgrowingat about30%peryear Onlylargescaledomestic brewerytogrowduringthe recession PBRcurrentlypricedatover $250milliondollars
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendations FutureMarketingStrategy
CounterLoss ofBrand Equity Refocus Brand Marketto Younger Demographic Manageimageofconsumers Reducemassmarketing
Returntocoreattributes:rebellion,freedom
Utilizeantimarketingstrategies Focusonretromodelsandadvertising
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation IncreaseFootprintinIndia
AsianMotorcycleMarketShare
INDIA
Highgrowthpotential Existingcapitalcommitment Brandawareness
(2009)
SouthKorea 1% Japan 11% China 56% Other 8%
India 24%
HarleyDavidson,Inc.
Recommendation IncreaseFootprintinIndia
MotorcycleSalesVolume
(India)
14,000 12,000 10,000 UnitsSold 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
2005 2009CAPR 5.5% 2010 2014CAPR 5.1% ProjectedUnitSales (thousands) 2010=9,849 2011=10,351 2012=10,879 2013=11,434 2014=12,017
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation IncreaseFootprintinIndia
UnitSales
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 IndiaExpansion International Domestic
Year UnitSales
2010 200
2011 500
2012 2,000
2013 5,000
2014 8,000
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendation IncreaseFootprintinIndia
India
Current
Chandigarh NewDelhi Mumbai Hyderabad Bengaluru
Proposed
Kolkata Chennai Ahmedabad Pune Surat Kanpur Jaipur Lucknow Nagpur Patna
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Recommendations FutureinIndia
GrowMarket Share Growdealernetwork Smallerbikes,lowercost Marketresearchtoprotectbrand Purchaseparts/materialslocally ExpandCKDfacilityasdemandgrows Feasibilityofmanufacturinglocally,brandandcosts
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
CompanyProfile AccountingAnalysis FinancialAnalysis MarketingAnalysis Recommendations Conclusion
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Conclusion Theroadahead
RefocusBrand=>HarleyDavidsonscoreasset
StrategicExpansiontoIndia
ShortandLongTermGrowth
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Questions?
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
Appendices
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
DCFSensitivityAnalysis
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.
WeightedAverageCostofCapital
HARLEYDAVIDSON,INC.