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Even with this complication, the outcome should be the same and both actors ought to choose detonation at the first node (t =1 or when the first move is available).
What happened in the movie can probably be explained by the concepts of Survival and Morality
Perhaps social norms mattered for the actors in the game? There are some social benefits from being a moral agent. However, being moral is not as beneficial as being alive.
The pure strategy equilibria are {cooperate-detonate} and {detonate-cooperate} with a Mixed Nash Equilibrium of playing cooperation and detonation with a probability of .5 for both players with this specification.
IRRATIONALITY IS GOOD
The decision making process for both ships is different
Prisoners Decision to detonate becomes decentralized as time goes by and any one actor willing to grab the detonator could do so. Eventually one prisoner takes the detonator and throws it out. Law Abiding Citizens A simple majority vote The decision to detonate the other ferry is chosen They voted to kill the prisoners but no one is willing to carry-out-the-task. Civilians are rational but dont want to carry out a morally reprehensible task
Since, detonating was the dominant strategy, Joker did not expect the two ships to cooperate.
US of A
USSR
Both countries used to have bombers constantly in the air, already well on their way to their targets. You either launch first or convince the enemy that you can strike back even if you're dead.
The Nuclear war between the two during that time turned into a Chicken Game
Game theorist Thomas Schelling convinced officials that nuclear weapons were only useful as deterrents.
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): neither nation could gain advantage through nuclear attack -- the reprisals would be too devastating
Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy... the fear to attack
The US PLAN R
Plan R is an emergency war plan in which a lower echelon commander may order nuclear retaliation after a sneak attack if the normal chain of command is disrupted.
The plan of Plan R is to make deterrence more credible by the threat of losing central control.
Loss of control is exacerbated by the intentional inability to communicate with the planes while in the air.
The doomsday machine gets triggered automatically and all life on the planet is destroyed
How is it possible for this thing to be triggered automatically, and at the same time impossible to untrigger
Ruling out "human meddling" is crucial because one must make the incredible threat of suicide credible
Seemingly the ultimate deterrent, there is one flaw in its deterrence capability: the Americans don't know it exists
BRINKMANSHIP
Apparently, doomsday machine are easy to build. So everyone would end up building it. And even a small mistake would lead to disaster.
Turgidson: "I admit the human element seems to have failed us here. But the idea was to discourage the Russkies
The Doomsday machine goes off and the entire Planet is destroyed
TUCKER CONSTRUCTS THE CAR OF TOMMOROW WITH GROUND BREAKING FEATURES PITTED AGAINST THREE OPPRESIVE DETROIT BASED CAR MANUFACTURERS
THE ENTRY OF TUCKER SEDANS INTO MARKET MAY BE MARRED BY COLLUSIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE THREE INCUMBENTS EXPECTED TO PROTECT THEIR MARKET SHARE
TO PROTECT THEIR MARKET SHARE, THE INCUMBENTS THROUGH THEIR STRONG LOBBYING EFFORTS MAY FORCE ALLEGATIONS OF FRAUD AGAINST TUCKER
HOW WILL THE INCUMBENTS STRATEGIZE TO KEEP TUCKER OFF THE MARKET?
TUCKER: THE MAN AND HIS DREAM- OLIGOPOLY AND COLLUSION STRATEGIC FORM NASH EQUILIBRIUM: THE INCUMBENTS ALLEGATION TUCKER ENTER DO NOT ENTER (-2, 10) (-2, 10) NO ALLEGATION (12, 2) (0, 10)
EXTENSIVE FORM:
ENTERS INCUMBENT
TUCKER
(0, 10)
(12, 2) NO ALLEGATION
CREDIBLE THREAT AS PER SUB GAME PERFECTION: TUCKER WONT ENTER MARKET