Iran: Cornered, armed and dangerous

Ahmadinejad: Cowboy of the Mid-East

Iran turns to barter for food as sanctions cripple imports Iran ready for talks but asserts nuclear path will continue Iran threatens to hit any country used to attack its soil Ahmadinejad nukes Western threats, puts fuel rods in reactor With nuclear bluster, Iran edges closer to a confrontation

Terror map: Bangkok, Georgia, New Delhi

Iranian bomber maimed in blasts in Thai capital Thailand confirms Iranians planned to attack Israeli diplomats Delhi car blast: No leads, so everyone under scanner

Israel: Waiting to strike

How Israel is hustling the US and rushing to strike Iran Israel says Bangkok bomb is Iran terror attempt Israel point fingers at Iran for attacks in India, Georgia Israel may not strike back too hard: analysts

US: A tight rope walk

US, Europe look at fast but risky penalty on Iran Dwindling time, rising tension make Iran top fear Ready with all options on Iran: Obama

India: And the subcontinent

After Pakistan, is Iran exporting terror to India? India: A friend of two enemies Its in Indias interest to crack Israeli embassy car bomb case If weve to choose between Israel and Iran, choose the former Ahmadinejad to visit China next month: Report Pain at the pump: Oil prices spike after Irans sabre-rattling

Ahmadinejad: Cowboy of the Mid-East

Iran turns to barter

for food as sanctions

cripple imports
Difficulty in making paying for urgent import needs has contributed to sharp rises in the prices of basic foodstuffs, causing hardship for Iranians.
Valerie Parent and Parisa Hafezi, with inputs from Reuters, Feb 9, 2012

aris/Tehran: Iran is turning to barter offering gold bullion in overseas vaults or tankerloads of oil in return for food as new financial sanctions have hurt its ability to import basic staples for its 74 million people, commodities traders said on Thursday. Difficulty paying for urgent import needs has contributed to sharp rises in the prices of basic foodstuffs, causing hardship for Iranians with just weeks to go before an election seen as a referendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejads economic policies. New sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union to punish Iran for its nuclear programme do not bar firms from selling Iran food but they make it difficult to carry out the international financial transactions needed to pay for it. Reuters surveys of commodities traders around the globe show that since the start of the year, Iran has had trouble securing imports of basic staples like rice, cooking oil, animal feed and tea. Grain ships have been held at its ports, refusing to unload until payment can be received for cargo. With Irans rial currency tumbling, the prices of rice, bread and meat in Iranian bazaars have doubled or more in dollar terms in recent months. Iranian grain importers have in the past sidestepped sanctions by booking business through the United Arab Emirates, traders said, but this option was cut off by the UAE government in response to sanctions. Iran has been trading oil in currencies like Japanese yen, South Korean won and Indian rupees, but such deals make it difficult to repatriate profits. Deals revealed on Thursday appear to be among the first in which Iran has had to result to offering cashless barter to avoid sanctions, a sign of new urgency as it seeks to buy food and get around the financial restrictions. Grain deals are being paid for in gold bullion and barter deals are being offered, one Euro-

pean grains trader said, speaking on condition of anonymity while discussing commercial deals. Some of the major trading houses are involved. Another trader said: As the shipments of grain are so large, barter or gold payments are the quickest option. Details of how the barter deals work are still unclear as the payments problem is so new, and traders did not disclose the exact size of such deals. Pivotal time The economic hardship is being felt in Iran at a pivotal time in its domestic politics and its nuclear diplomacy with the West. The United States and Europe say the sanctions are needed to push Iran to the negotiating table before it produces enough nuclear material to build an atomic bomb. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful. Last month it began nuclear enrichment at a new facility deep under a mountain to make it secure from military strikes. Iranian officials deny that sanctions are having a serious economic impact, while also saying that their people are willing to endure any hardship in support of the countrys sovereign right to nuclear technology. Officials in Israel, Irans arch foe, openly say time is running out for air strikes to destroy the nuclear programme if sanctions do not persuade Tehran to back down. Irans parliamentary election on 2 March will be its first vote since a presidential vote in 2009, when Ahmadinejads disputed re-election against a reformist opponent triggered eight months of violent street demonstrations. The Iranian government successfully put that uprising down by force, but since then the Arab Spring has revealed the vulnerability of authoritarian states in the region to popular anger fuelled by economic hardship. Reformists are barely represented in next

months election, having been barred from standing or declaring boycotts. The vote will be hotly contested between Ahmadinejads supporters and conservative opponents who blame him for economic disarray. Children of Iranian opposition leaders called on the international community to help their voices reach the rest of the world, opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavis website Kaleme reported on Wednesday. Reformists are planning a rally next week, which could be a rare test of whether the soaring food prices are increasing anger on the streets. The 14 February rally would mark a year of house arrest for Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the candidates who opposed Ahmadinejad in 2009. It was announced on Mousavis website, Kaleme. Doomed The effect of Irans difficulty processing payments on often opaque international commodities markets can be felt directly on the streets in the form of higher prices and shortages.

Iran at this moment, it is too risky, said a trader with a listed Singaporean firm that ships Indonesian palm oil cargoes to the Middle East and Iran. A trading source from Saudi Arabia whose firm runs a 16,000-tonne-a-year plant that refines food oil in Iran said the sector was barely operating. A margarine factory owner in Tehran said on Wednesday he expected to halt production within months because of a shortage of raw materials. The impact could be felt in a Tehran pastry shop. We are going bankrupt and probably will be closed within weeks, said the owner on Thursday. All my ingredients come from abroad. Either the prices suddenly doubled or they stopped being shipped. We are doomed. While the United States and Europe lack the authority without the United Nations to ban dealings by other countries with Iran, their measures can raise the cost of doing business so much that it is no longer profitable for traders. The objective of current and likely sanctions is very simple: to raise the cost of having anything to do with the purchase or shipping of Iranian petroleum to such an extent that even such potential partners who are formally beyond the legal jurisdiction of the United States or its allies will nonetheless shun doing business with Tehran, said J. Peter Pham, with the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think-tank. China, which bought a fifth of Irans oil exports last year, has cut its imports this year in half, seeking a steeper discount which will hurt Irans revenues.

According to commodities traders in Asia, shipments of palm oil from both the top suppliers, Indonesia and Malaysia, have been halted to Iran because traders fear they cannot get paid. The two countries account for 90 percent of global supply of the oil, a staple ingredient for products from margarine to sweets. I can confirm that Singaporean firms have stopped. We dont want to go anywhere near

In public, companies and countries say they will still trade with Iran as long as it remains legal to do so. Like all the international companies, we do business there, but you have to be very careful, Paul Conway, chairman of US agribusiness giant Cargill told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

Rahul Khullar, trade secretary of India, one of Irans main trade partners, said: If the EU and the US both want to stop exports to that country, please tell me why I should follow suit? Why shouldnt I take up that business opportunity? Under US pressure, India shut down a payments system for trade with Iran last year. Under a new system, Indian firms are expected to pay for 45 percent of their Iranian oil imports in Indian rupees to avoid going through international banks. Implementing the system has been stalled while Indian authorities work out whether to subject such payments to tax. Traders revealed this week that Iranian buyers had defaulted on payments for Indian rice. Khullar said there were also payment problems in tea, although he did not give details. Indian tea exports to Iran fell by a third last year. Azam Monem, director at McLeod Russel India, the worlds largest tea producer, said exporters were waiting for a system to be set up so that Iranian buyers can pay in rupees. Reza Hosseini, a food wholesaler in Tehran, said: The price per regular package of tea has doubled. Since Iran is a big importer of tea, the sharp rise in price means that there is a problem with its import. International shipping firms are cutting back business with Iran. Last year the United States blacklisted major Iranian port operator Tidewater Middle East Co, which operates seven terminals in Iran including Bandar Abbas, Irans only container port connected to the worlds big shipping lines.

I sense that many international shipping companies are challenged beyond what they find can be justified when looking at the potential earnings of trading with Iran, said Jakob Larsen, a maritime security officer with BIMCO, the worlds largest private shipowners association. Having said that, I think there are still some who are able to carry on their business in a way that does not breach sanctions and yet ensures a decent return on investment. Danish shipping company AP Moller-Maersk told Reuters this week it had suspended new oil tanker deals with Iran due to the EU measures. German container shipping group Hapag-Lloyd said on Thursday it no longer offered limited services to Iran. It had already ended consignments last year to Tidewater-run ports. Iran faces a bigger challenge if US lawmakers pass sanctions on its main tanker group, the privately run National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) with a fleet of 40 tankers, or on the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company. The measure would amount to de facto oil and shipping embargos, the Atlantic Councils Pham said. The mere taint would also have a net negative effect on Iran, driving those fearful of the reach of sanctions to decide not to go through with transactions while giving Irans remaining partners one thinks, for example, of Chinese firms the leverage to drive the price they pay down.

Iran ready for talks

nuclear path will continue

but asserts

However, Irans Arabic-language Al Alam television said the govet had handed a letter to EU foreign policy chief expressing readiness to hold new talks over its nuclear programme in a constructive way.
Reuters, Feb 16, 2012

ran proclaimed advances in nuclear know-how, including new centrifuges able to enrich uranium much faster, a move that may heighten its confrontation with the West over suspicions it is seeking the means to make atomic bombs. Tehrans determination to pursue a nuclear programme showed no sign of wavering despite Western sanctions that are inflicting increasing damage on its oil-based economy. The era of bullying nations has passed. The arrogant powers cannot monopolise nuclear technology. They tried to prevent us by issuing sanctions and resolutions but failed, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a television broadcast on Wednesday. Our nuclear path will continue. But Irans Arabic-language Al Alam television said the government had handed a letter to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton expressing readiness to hold new talks over its nuclear programme in a constructive way. An Ashton spokeswoman confirmed receipt of the letter, saying she was evaluating it and would consult the United States, Russia, China and other partners among the big powers. Iran has long refused to negotiate curbs on its nuclear programme, saying it is intended purely for civilian uses, including producing electricity for booming domestic demand. The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy and sanctions fail. Washington played down Irans announcement, saying the advances were neither new nor very impressive. We frankly dont see a lot new here. This is not big news. In fact it seems to have been hyped, a State Department spokeswoman said. IRAN DENIES BANNING OIL EXPORTS TO EU Irans Oil Ministry denied a state media report that it had cut off oil exports to six EU states.

We deny this report If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Irans Supreme National Security Council, a ministry spokesman said. Irans English language Press TV had said Tehran had halted oil deliveries to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain its biggest EU customers in retaliation for an EU ban on Iranian crude due to take effect in July. The Islamic Republic is the worlds No. 5 oil exporter, with 2.6 million barrels going abroad daily, about a fifth of it to EU countries. Western sanctions are spreading to block Irans oil exports and central bank financing of trade, and Tehran has resorted to barter to import staples like rice, cooking oil and tea, commodities traders say. The Obama administration is putting pressure on the European Union and SWIFT, the global organisation that facilitates most of the worlds cross-border payments, to expel Iranian banks from its network, a new step in the push to deprive Iran of funds, a U.S. official said on Wednesday. Expelling Iranian banks from the Belgiumbased Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication would cut off one of Irans few remaining avenues to do business abroad. European banking regulators may meet SWIFTs board on Thursday to discuss the issue, two sources familiar with the matter said. SWIFT has said previously it is working to resolve the issue but is just a messaging system for its 10,000 users. The most recent talks between world powers and Iran failed in January 2011 because of Tehrans unwillingness to discuss transparent limits on enrichment, as demanded by several U.N. Security Council resolutions passed since 2006. The nuclear achievements proclaimed by Tehran involved a new line of uranium enrichment centrifuges and the loading of its first domestically produced batch of fuel into a research

reactor that is expected to run out of imported stocks soon. Tehran has for some years been developing and testing new generations of centrifuges to replace its outdated, erratic P-1 model. In January it said it had successfully manufactured and tested its own fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants. FOURTH GENERATION CENTRIFUGE Ahmadinejad said the fourth generation of centrifuge would be able to refine uranium three times as fast as previously. If Iran succeeded in introducing modern centrifuges for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium, which can generate electricity or, if refined much more, produce nuclear explosions. Last year, Iran installed two newer models for large scale testing at a research site near the central town of Natanz. But it remains unclear whether Tehran, under increasingly strict trade sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in industrial quantity. We have seen this before. We have seen these announcements and these grand unveilings and it turns out that there was less there than meets the eye. I suspect this is the same case, said Shannon Kile at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). However, Ahmadinejad said Iran had increased the number of centrifuges at its main enrichment site at Natanz to 9,000. In its last report on Iran, in November, the UN nuclear watchdog said there were 8,000 installed centrifuges at Natanz, of which up to 6,200 were operating. France said Tehrans latest moves again demonstrated that it would rather ignore international obligations than cooperate.

to engage meaningfully on the international communitys well-founded concerns about its nuclear programme. Until it does so well only increase peaceful and legitimate pressure on Iran to return to negotiations. Russia said global powers must work harder to coax concessions from Iran, warning that Tehrans willingness to compromise was waning as it makes progress toward the potential capability of building nuclear warheads. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said U.N. sanctions and additional measures introduced by Western nations had had zero effect on Irans nuclear programme. Iran has threatened retaliation for any attack or effective ban on its oil exports, suggesting it could seal off the main Gulf export shipping channel, the Strait of Hormuz, used by a third of the worlds crude oil tankers. NEW FUEL FOR RESEARCH REACTOR State television aired live footage of Ahmadinejad loading Iranian-made fuel rods into the Tehran Research Reactor and called this a sign of Iranian scientists achievements. The Tehran reactor produces radio isotopes for medical use and agriculture. Iran says it was forced to manufacture its own fuel for the reactor after failing to agree terms for a deal to obtain it from the West. In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting to enrich uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent, saying this was for reprocessing into special fuel for the Tehran reactor. A 3.5 percent level is enough to power nuclear power plants, and the move to 20 percent purity brought Iran significantly closer to the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead. Analysts remained doubtful that Iran would be able to operate the research reactor with its own special fuel.

As usual, the announcement surely is exaggerA British Foreign Office spokesman said: (This) ated. Producing the fuel plates is not so hard. does not give any confidence that Iran is ready But the plates have to be tested for a consider-

able period before they can be used safely in the reactor, said Mark Fitzpatrick of Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies. If Iran is really running the reactor with untested fuel plates, then my advice to the residents surrounding the building would be to move somewhere else. It will be unsafe. Spent fuel can be reprocessed into plutonium, the alternative key ingredient in atomic bombs. But Western worries about Irans nuclear programme have focused on its enrichment programme, which has accumulated enough material for several bombs, in the view of nuclear proliferation experts.

Analysts say the fuel rod development does not bring Iran any closer to producing nuclear weapons, but could be a way of telling its enemies that time is running out for a negotiated solution to the dispute. Iran appears to have overcome one serious recent obstacle to nuclear development by succeeding in neutralizing and purging the Stuxnet computer virus from its nuclear machinery, European and U.S. officials and private experts told Reuters. Many believe Israeli operators planted the virus.

Iran threatens to hit any country used to attack its soil

Iran will target any country used as a launchpad for attacks against its soil, the deputy Revolutionary Guards commander said, expanding Tehrans range of threats in an increasingly volatile stand-off with world powers over its nuclear ambitions.
Reuters, Feb 6, 2012

ehran: Iran will target any country used as a launchpad for attacks against its soil, the deputy Revolutionary Guards commander said, expanding Tehrans range of threats in an increasingly volatile stand-off with world powers over its nuclear ambitions. Last week, Irans supreme clerical leader threatened reprisals for the Wests new ban on Iranian oil exports and the US defence secretary was quoted as saying Israel was likely to bomb Iran within months to stop it assembling nuclear weapons. Although broadened and sharpened financial sanctions have begun to inflict serious economic pain in Iran, its oil minister asserted on Saturday it would make no nuclear retreat even if its crude oil exports ground to a halt. Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian energy purposes. But its recent shift of uranium enrichment to a mountain bunker possibly impervious to conventional bombing, and refusal to negotiate peaceful guarantees for the programme or open up to UN nuclear inspectors, have thickened an atmosphere of brewing confrontation, raising fears for Gulf oil supplies. Any spot used by the enemy for hostile operations against Iran will be subjected to retaliatory aggression by our armed forces, Hossein Salami, deputy head of the elite Revolutionary Guards, told the semi-official Fars news agency on Sunday. The Guards began two days of military manoeuvres in southern Iran on Saturday in another show of force for Irans adversaries associated with tensions over its disputed nuclear programme. On Sunday Israel appointed a new air force chief who last month, in his position as top military planner, warned publicly that Israel could not deal a knock-out blow to its enemies, including Iran, in any regional conflict. The United States and Israel, Irans arch-enemies, have not ruled out a military strike on Tehran if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear stalemate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to visit Washington next

month, his office said on Sunday, and Israeli political sources said he is likely to meet US President Barack Obama while there. Irans Salami did not identify which countries he meant as possible hosts for military action against it. The six, US-allied Arab states in the Gulf Cooperation Council, situated on the other side of the vital oil exporting waterway from Iran, have said they would not allow their territories to be used for attacks on the Islamic Republic. But analysts say that if Iran retaliated for an attack launched from outside the region by targeting US facilities in Gulf Arab states, Washington might pressure the host nations to permit those bases to hit back, arguing they should have the right to defend themselves. The Gulf states that host US military facilities are Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. THREAT TO SHUT VITAL OIL CHANNEL Iran has warned its response to any such strike will be painful, threatening to target Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, along with closing the Strait of Hormuz used by one third of the worlds seaborne oil traffic. Betraying nervousness about possible blowback from any military strike on Iran, two of its neighbours Qatar and Turkey urged the West on Sunday to make greater efforts to negotiate a solution to the nuclear row. Speaking at the annual Munich Security Conference attended by top world policymakers, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said an attack would be a disaster and the dispute over Irans nuclear programme could be ended very rapidly. If there is strong political will and mutual confidence being established, this issue could be resolved in a few days, he said. The technical disputes are not so big. The problem is mutual confidence and strong political will. He added: A military option will create a disaster in our region. So before that disaster, every-

body must be serious in negotiations. We hope soon both sides will meet again but this time there will be a complete result. Turkey was the venue of the last talks between Western powers and Iran a year ago which ended in stalemate because participants could not even agree on an agenda. Qatari Deputy Foreign Minister Khalid Mohamed al-Attiyah said an attack is not a solution, and tightening the embargo on Iran will make the scenario worse. I believe that with our allies and friends in the West we should open a serious dialogue with

the Iranians to get out of this dilemma. This is what we feel in our region. Tehran has warned several times it may seal off the Strait of Hormuz, throttling the supply of Gulf crude and gas, if attacked or if sanctions mean it cannot export its oil. A military strike on Iran and Irans response, which might include an attack on the oilfields of No. 1 exporter Saudi Arabia, would send oil prices soaring, which could seriously harm the global economy

Ahmadinejad nukes Western threats, puts fuel rods in reactor

Addressing the world through a televised speech, Ahmadinejad reiterated that his countrys atomic programme stands on the principle of peace and not annihilation.
FP Staff Feb 15, 2012

ranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad led his country today in a daring show of nuclear strength to the West by loading domestically made nuclear fuel rods into the Tehran research reactor. Addressing the world through a televised speech, Ahmadinejad reiterated that his countrys atomic programme stands on the principle of peace and not annihilation. The president said that science and knowledge are heritage of mankind and US and co. cannot monopolise them and deprive other countries. The Western countries are arrogant powers of the world, they have looted all of us, he said. The president made it clear that Iran is not building bombs and nuclear power does not necessarily means war. Anywhere people hear the world nuclear they think of bomb. It is not so, Ahmadinejad said, adding that Iranian nuke technology will suffice the countrys energy and medical needs. President Ahmadinejad accused the Western powers of killing Irans scientists and bullying them for all these years.

He said the US is killing their scientists, because they dont want Iran to progress. You (Western powers) will not talk, you will want us to sit on the table and sign whatever you give. But that time is over now, the president said. Commenting on the global hypocrisy, the president said, Right now how many countries around us with bombs? They have 10,000 bombs, yet they say they are against bombs. He said Iran has finally learned the hard way. The Western countries can no more stop us. All our enemies are too weak. US is not at all powerful. We have shown what we can do, Ahmadinejad said. Irans capacity to increase nuclear fuel production has enhanced by 50 percent, and the country has 9,000 nuclear centrifuges. Ahmadinejad said that Iran will proceed with the nuclear project and it will not be affected by any propaganda.

a confrontation
Tehrans resolve to pursue a nuclear program showed no sign of wavering despite Western sanctions inflicting increasing damage on its oil-based economy.
Reuters, Feb 16, 2012

With nuclear bluster, Iran edges closer to

ehran: Iran proclaimed advances in nuclear know-how on Wednesday, including new centrifuges able to enrich uranium much faster, a move that may hasten a drift towards confrontation with the West over suspicions it is seeking the means to make atomic bombs. Tehrans resolve to pursue a nuclear program showed no sign of wavering despite Western sanctions inflicting increasing damage on its oilbased economy. The era of bullying nations has passed. The arrogant powers cannot monopolize nuclear technology. They tried to prevent us by issuing sanctions and resolutions but failed, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a live television broadcast. Our nuclear path will continue. However, Irans Arabic-language Al Alam television said the government had handed a letter to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton expressing readiness to hold new talks over its nuclear program in a constructive way.

Irans Oil Ministry denied a state media report that it had cut off oil exports to six European Union states. We deny this report If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Irans Supreme National Security Council, a spokesman for the ministry told Reuters. Irans English language Press TV said Tehran had halted oil deliveries to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain its biggest EU customers in retaliation for an EU ban on Iranian crude due to take effect in July. The Islamic Republic is the worlds No. 5 oil exporter, with 2.6 million barrels going abroad daily, and the EU consumes around a fifth of those volumes. With Western sanctions now spreading to block Irans oil exports and central bank financing of trade, Tehran has been resorting to barter to import staples like rice, cooking oil and tea, commodities traders say.

The most recent talks between world powers and Iran failed in January 2011 because of An Ashton spokeswoman confirmed receipt Tehrans unwillingness to discuss transparent of the letter, saying she was evaluating it and limits on enrichment, as demanded by several would consult with the United States, Russia, U.N. Security Council resolutions passed since China and other partners among the big powers. 2006. Iran has long refused to negotiate curbs on its nuclear program, saying it is intended to produce electricity for booming domestic demand and for other civilian uses. The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy and sanctions fail. Washington however played down Irans latest announcement, saying its reported advances were not terribly new and not terribly impressive. We frankly dont see a lot new here. This is not big news. In fact it seems to have been hyped, a State Department spokeswoman said. IRAN DENIES BANNING OIL EXPORTS TO EU NEW GENERATION OF CENTRIFUGE The nuclear achievements proclaimed by Tehran involved a new line of uranium enrichment centrifuge and the loading of its first domestically produced batch of fuel into a research reactor that is expected to soon run out of imported stocks. Tehran has for some years been developing and testing new generations of centrifuges to replace its outdated, erratic P-1 model. In January it said it had successfully manufactured and tested its own fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants. Ahmadinejad said the fourth generation of centrifuge would be able to refine uranium three times as fast as previously.

If Iran eventually succeeded in introducing modern centrifuges for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium, which can generate electricity or, if refined much more, nuclear explosions. Last year, Iran installed two newer models for large scale testing at a research site near the central town of Natanz. But it remains unclear whether Tehran, under increasingly strict trade sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in industrial quantity. We have seen this before. We have seen these announcements and these grand unveilings and it turns out that there was less there than meets the eye. I suspect this is the same case, said Shannon Kile at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). However, Ahmadinejad said Iran had significantly increased the number of centrifuges at its main enrichment site at Natanz, saying there were now 9,000 such machines installed there. In its last report on Iran, in November, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said there were 8,000 installed centrifuges at Natanz, of which up to 6,200 were operating. MAJOR THREAT, FRANCE SAYS France said Tehrans latest moves again demonstrated that it would rather ignore international obligations than cooperate.

A British Foreign Office spokesman said: (This) does not give any confidence that Iran is ready to engage meaningfully on the international communitys well-founded concerns about its nuclear program. Until it does so well only increase peaceful and legitimate pressure on Iran to return to negotiations. Russia said global powers must work harder to coax concessions from Iran, warning that Tehrans willingness to compromise was waning as it makes progress toward the potential capability of building nuclear warheads. Making a case for a renewed dialogue, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said U.N. sanctions and additional measures introduced by Western nations had had zero effect on its nuclear program. Iran has threatened retaliation for any attack or effective ban on its oil exports, suggesting it could seal off the main Gulf export shipping channel, the Strait of Hormuz, used by a third of the worlds crude oil tankers. NEW FUEL FOR RESEARCH REACTOR State television aired live footage of Ahmadinejad loading Iranian-made fuel rods into the Tehran Research Reactor and called this a sign of Iranian scientists achievements. The Tehran reactor produces radio isotopes for medical use and agriculture. Iran says it was forced to manufacture its own fuel for the Tehran reactor after failing to agree terms for a deal to obtain it from the West. In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting to enrich uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent for the stated purpose of reprocessing into special fuel for the Tehran reactor. In boosting enrichment up from the 3.5 percent level suitable for powering civilian nuclear plants, Iran moved significantly closer to the 90 percent threshold suitable for the fissile core of a nuclear warhead. Analysts remained doubtful that Iran would be able to operate the research reactor with its own special fuel.

As usual, the announcement surely is exaggerated. Producing the fuel plates is not so hard. But the plates have to be tested for a considerable period before they can be used safely in the reactor, said Mark Fitzpatrick of Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies. If Iran is really running the reactor with untested fuel plates, then my advice to the residents surrounding the building would be to move somewhere else. It will be unsafe. Spent fuel can be reprocessed into plutonium, the alternative key ingredient in atomic bombs. But Western worries about Irans nuclear program have focused on its enrichment program, which has accumulated enough material for up to several bombs, in the view of nuclear proliferation experts.

Analysts say the fuel rod development itself will not put Iran any closer to producing nuclear weapons, but could be a way of telling Tehrans adversaries that time is running out if they want to find a negotiated solution to the dispute. Iran appears to have overcome one serious recent obstacle to nuclear development by succeeding in neutralizing and purging the Stuxnet computer virus from its nuclear machinery, European and U.S. officials and private experts told Reuters. Many believe Israeli operators planted the virus.

Terror map: Bangkok, Georgia, New Delhi

Iranian bomber maimed in blasts in Thai capital

An Iranian man was seriously wounded in Bangkok on Tuesday when a bomb he was carrying exploded and blew one of his legs off in an incident Israel said was an attempted terrorist attack by Iran.
Reuters, Feb 15, 2012

angkok: An Iranian man was seriously wounded in Bangkok on Tuesday when a bomb he was carrying exploded and blew one of his legs off in an incident Israel said was an attempted terrorist attack by Iran. Shortly beforehand, there had been an explosion in a house the man was renting in the Ekamai area of central Bangkok. Soon after that, there was a third blast on a nearby road, Thai police and officials said. The police have control of the situation. It is thought that the suspect might be storing more explosives inside his house, government spokeswoman Thitima Chaisaeng told reporters. Police said they had detained another supsect at Bangkoks main Suvarnabhumi airport, one of two men they were looking for who had been living at the house where the initial blast took place. We discovered the injured mans passport. Its an Iranian passport and he entered the country through Phuket and arrived at Suvarnabhumi Airport on the 8th of this month, Police General Bansiri Prapapat told Reuters. The three explosions in Bangkok came a day after bomb attacks targeted Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia. Israel accused Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind those attacks. Iran denied involvement. Hezbollah is a Shiite group backed by Syria and Iran that is on the U.S. blacklist of foreign terrorist organisations. Thai officials declined to say whether the two men they had detained were involved with any militant group, but Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak blamed Iran. The attempted terrorist attack in Bangkok proves once again that Iran and its proxies continue to perpetrate terror, Barak said on a visit to Singapore. Iran and Hezbollah are unrelenting terror elements endangering the stability of the region, and endangering the stability of the world, said

Barak, who spent a few hours in Bangkok on Sunday. Iran strongly denied any involvement in the Thai incident. The Foreign Ministry spokesman rejected Israeli claims that Iran was involved in the Bangkok bombing and added that efforts by the Zionist regime to harm friendly and historic relations between Iran and Thailand will bear no fruit, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. TAXI A TARGET Thai police said they were working to make safe an unspecified amount of explosives found in the house where the initial blast took place. Police declined to make any link between Tuesdays incident and the arrest last month of a Lebanese man in Bangkok who, according to the Thai authorities, had links to Hezbollah. The police discovered a large amount of explosive material in an area southwest of Bangkok at around the time of that arrest. The United States, Israel and other countries issued warnings, subsequently lifted, of possible terrorist attacks in areas frequented by foreigners. The Lebanese man has been charged with possession of explosive material and prosecutors said further charges could follow next week. Tuesdays blasts were not near Israels embassy nor the main area for embassies. A taxi driver told Thai television the wounded suspect had thrown a bomb in front of his car when he refused to pick him up near the site of the first blast. The driver was wounded slightly. Government spokeswoman Thitima said police had then tried to move in and arrest the man but he attempted to throw another bomb at them. It went off before he was able to do so, blowing one of his legs off. A doctor at Chulalongkorn Hospital told reporters the other leg had to be amputated. Another doctor was quoted on TV as saying three Thai people had suffered minor injuries, in addition to the taxi driver.

attack Israeli diplomats

Iranians planned to

Thailand confirms

Thailands police chief also confirmed that the type of explosive a homemade sticky bomb found at the blast site matched the devices planted on Israeli diplomatic cars in India and Georgia.
AP, Feb 16, 2012

angkok: Thailands police chief said the Iranians who were arrested after accidentally setting off explosives at their rented home in Bangkok were plotting to attack Israeli diplomats, bolstering claims by Israel that the group was part of an Iranian-backed network of terror. I can tell you that the target was specific and aimed at Israeli diplomatic staff, police chief Gen Prewpan Dhamapong told a Thai television station late Wednesday. He also confirmed that the type of explosive a homemade sticky bomb found at the blast site Tuesday matched the devices planted on Israeli diplomatic cars in India and Georgia a day earlier. The type of improvised explosives they used were the same. The type that was attached to vehicles, he said, confirming that an investigation into a magnetic strip found in Bangkok was the same type used in New Delhi. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the violence, while Irans Foreign

Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast called the allegations baseless and said Israel was trying to damage his countrys relations with Thailand and fuel conspiracy theories. Thailands government says it is still trying to piece together what happened when a group of three Iranian men accidentally detonated explosives at a home they had rented in Bangkoks busy Sukhumvit Road area a day earlier. Bomb disposal teams combed the Iranians house again Wednesday looking for more evidence, while security forces were searching for an Iranian woman they said had originally rented it. Two of the men were detained in Bangkok on Tuesday after fleeing the destroyed house, while a third was arrested Wednesday in neighboring Malaysia after boarding a flight from Bangkok to Kuala Lumpur overnight. Israel has accused Iran of waging a campaign of state terror and has threatened military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has blamed the Jewish state for the recent killings of Iranian atomic scientists and has denied responsibility for all three plots this week.

Watch Video

Delhi car blast: everyone under scanner

No leads, so

With Israel pointing the finger at Iran, the possible role of nationals of middle-eastern countries is being investigated.
FP Staff, Feb 16, 2012

he search for the mysterious biker who allegedly planted the sticky bomb that blew up an Innova in a high-security zone injuring four, including an Israeli diplomat, on Monday, continues. With Israel pointing the finger at Iran, the possible role of nationals of middle-eastern countries is being investigated. Students and visitors from Lebanon, Iran and Jordan have come under the police scanner, and according to news reports, eight persons have so far been questioned and released in relation to the blast. The Foreigner Regional Registration Office (FRRO) has been asked by the police to provide details of visitors from Jordan and Iran, reports the Times of India. Israeli investigators, including agents from the secret service Mossad, who have inspected the blown-up Innova, have said there are similarities between the bombs used in Delhi and Bangkok, suggesting that the bomb could have been made outside the country.

The presence of potassium chlorate and nitrate in the bomb as reported in a preliminary forensic report, also points to the bombs foreign origin, as local terror modules reportedly do not have expertise in handling these substances, TOI reports. But the police is also looking at the involvement of local elements and several suspects have been detained in overnight raids. Yesterday, the investigators had said that the motor-cyclist who planted the bomb on the Israeli embassy car may have been of Indian origin. They had also added that the bomb that was used may have been made locally, NDTV reported. A massive hunt has also been launched to find the bike that is suspected to have been used in the operation. Meanwhile, the Innova driver, Manoj Sharma, in an interview to the Indian Express, has said he didnt see any motorcyclist. I was waiting at the Race Course signal when I heard a thud at the rear end of the car, like somebody pushed itI did not notice carefully what car was behind me, but there was no bike.

Israel: Waiting to strike

How Israel is hustling the US and rushing to strike Iran

Barack Obama began his presidency by reaching out to Iran. But he has been dragged by pressure from Israel and neoconservatives - and by Irans failure to respond - into talking of war. Peace stands no chance.
Venky Vembu, Feb 14, 2012

he bomb attack on the Israeli embassy vehicle in New Delhi on Monday has dragged India squarely into the crossfire of an ongoing war of nerves in West Asia between Israel and Iran over the latters nuclear programme. That confrontation has been brewing for a long time: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had as far back as in 1996 warned that if the Iranian regime, which he characterised as the most dangerous in West Asia, were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would have catastrophic consequences not just for his country or the region, but for all mankind. Yet, that tension was accentuated, particularly after Barack Obama took office as US President in 2009, because fundamentally Israeli leaders did not trust Obama then and barely trust him now. Obamas promise, which he articulated even during his campaign, to reach out to Irans leaders in the hope of talking them out of acquiring nuclear weapons, caused them deep disquiet because it represented a slideback from the belligerent neoconservative narrative of the George W Bush years. Additionally, in early meetings with Obama even before he took officeit dawned on Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, that Obama perhaps saw the effort to pre-empt Iranian nuclearisation not from the perspective of Israels security (which was on top of their minds) but from a global non-proliferation perspective. In other words, in their estimation, Obama was driven by a John Lennon-esque pacifist vision for the world, not by shoot first, talk later habits of the neocons. From all accounts, from his first day in office, Obama was under pressure from all around from Israel, from hardline members of the US Congress who favoured confrontation with Iran, from the spies and spooks in the CIA who had been waging dirty wars in Iran and even from Saudi Arabia and several other Arab allies. In one memorable conversation between Saudi King Abdullah and US General David Petraeus

in early 2008, the king urged the US to cut off the head of the snake (Read the rollicking WikiLeaks account here.) Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt (then under the Hosni Mubarak) referred to Iran on various occasions as an existential threat, and an evil force that would drag the region to war. The irony is that today, even Obama has abandoned his peacenik overture towards Iran and even his efforts to let sanctions do the job. Today, his administration has been hustled reluctantly into talking the language of war. Trita Parsi, author of A Single Roll of the Dice: Obamas Diplomacy with Iran, argues that it wasnt that Obamas diplomacy failed. On the other hand, it was prematurely abandoned. Obamas intention, argues Parsi, was genuine, but his vision for diplomacy was undermined by several factors. Most important of these was pressure from Israel and its Conservative allies in the US Congress, to adopt a policy of confronting Iran. It didnt also help Obama that in June 2009, the Iranian administration crackdown on an opposition uprising over electoral malpractice which gave rise to some of the most horrific images of violence, beamed around the world. The shrill Republic primary debates of recent months, with every leader (barring Ron Paul, the libertarian candidate) sounding off belligerently against Iran whenever they were asked how they would respond as Presidents to the Iranian nuclear crisis also cramped the space for Obamas diplomatic manoeuvres. In recent weeks, an Israel emboldened by all this war talk has been hyping up the prospect of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by this spring and, significantly, getting US administration officials to echo that sentiment.. It is in that context, with the sanctions hurting Iran and with suspected Israeli operatives carrying out targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, that the war of nerves has been escalated.

Mondays bomb attack in New Delhi is just one small skirmish in the protracted war. But it has had the effect of dragging India, which has up

until now been standing up to pressure to abide by the sanctions against Iran (out of its own self-interest), into the thick of the war.

Watch Video

is Iran terror attempt

After the trio of blasts on Tuesday in Bangkok, the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, has accused Iran of being behind the attack. Its unclear whether Tuesdays Bangkok explosions were linked to the New Delhi attack
Venky Vembu, Feb 14, 2012

Israel says Bangkok bomb

angkok: After the trio of blasts on Tuesday in Bangkok, the Israeli defense minister has accused Iran of being behind the attack. Israel said the Bangkok blast that blew the legs off an Iranian man carrying grenades was an attempted terrorist attack sponsored by Tehran. Defense Minister Ehud Barak stopped short of saying the man was trying to target Israelis. However, it came a day after Israel blamed Iran for attacks targeting Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia. And Baraks comments made clear that Israel considers the attacks connected and sponsored by the Iranian government. Authorities say its unclear whether Tuesdays Bangkok explosions were linked to the New Delhi attack, but Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said, we cant rule out any possibility. Thai security forces found more explosives in a house where the Iranian man was staying in Bangkok, but it was not known what targets they might have been meant for, Police Gen Pansiri Prapawat said. Pansiri said a passport found at the scene of one of the blasts in Bangkok indicated the assailant was Saeid Moradi from Iran. Authorities in Tehran could not immediately be reached for comment. Tuesdays violence began in the afternoon when a stash of explosives apparently detonated by accident in Moradis house, blowing off part of the roof. Police said two foreigners quickly left the residence, followed by a wounded Moradi. He tried to wave down a taxi, but he was covered in blood, and the driver refused to take him, Pansiri said. He then threw an explosive at the taxi and began running. Police who had been called to the area then tried to apprehend Moradi, who hurled a grenade to defend himself. But somehow it bounced back and blew off his legs, Pansiri said. Photos of the wounded Iranian showed him

covered in dark soot on a sidewalk strewn with broken glass. He lay in front of a Thai primary and secondary school. No students were reported wounded. A dark satchel nearby was investigated by a bomb disposal unit. Pansiri said police found Iranian currency, US dollars and Thai money in the bag. Three Thai men and one Thai woman were brought to Kluaynamthai Hospital for treatment of injuries, said Suwinai Busarakamwong, a doctor there.

Another Iranian was detained on Tuesday night at Bangkoks international airport as he attempted to leave for neighbouring Malaysia, said police commander Winai Thongsong. Authorities were interrogating the man, but it was not yet known whether he was involved in Tuesdays blasts. Last month, a Lebanese-Swedish man with alleged links to pro-Iranian Hezbollah militants was detained by Thai police. He led authorities to a warehouse filled with more than 8,800 pounds (4,000 kilograms) of urea fertilizer and several gallons of liquid ammonium nitrate. Israel and the United States at the time warned their citizens to be alert in the capital, but Thai authorities said Thailand appeared to have been a staging ground but not the target of any attack. Pansiri said that so far, we havent found any links between these two cases.

Immigration police are trying to trace Moradis movements, but initial reports indicated he flew into Thailand from Seoul, South Korea on Feb. 8, Pansiri said. He landed at the southern Thai resort town of Phuket, then stayed in a hotel in Chonburi, a couple hours drive southeast of Bangkok, for several nights. In Jerusalem, Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said there was not yet any sign that any targets in Bangkok were Israeli or Jewish. Thailand has rarely been a target for foreign terrorists, although a domestic Muslim insurgency in the countrys south has involved bombings of

civilian targets. Local media said traffic had been halted while authorities investigated. Last month, a foreign suspect with alleged links to Hezbollah militants led Thai police to a warehouse filled with more than 8,800 pounds (4,000 kg) of urea fertiliser and several gallons of liquid ammonium nitrate. Israel and the United States warned their citizens to be alert in the capital, but Thai authorities said Thailand appeared to have been a staging ground but not the target of any attack.

Watch Video

Israel point fingers at Iran for attacks in India, Georgia

Israel has had a standing alert for tourists visiting India since a 2008 attack on a Jewish centre in Mumbai.
Reuters, Feb 14, 2012

erusalem: Israel accused arch-enemies Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind twin bomb attacks that targeted embassy staff in India and Georgia on Monday, wounding four people. Tehran denied involvement in the strike, which has amplified tensions between two countries at loggerheads over Irans contested nuclear program. Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite Muslim movement in neighboring Lebanon, declined comment. Police in the Indian capital New Delhi said a bomb wrecked a car carrying the wife of the Israeli Defence attache as she was going to pick up her children from school. She needed surgery to remove shrapnel but her life was not in danger, officials said. Three others suffered lesser injuries in the same blast. Israeli officials said an attempt to bomb an embassy car in the Georgian capital Tbilisi had failed and the device was defused. Israel had put its foreign missions on high alert ahead of the anniversary of the February 12, 2008 assassination in Syria of the military mastermind of Hezbollah, Imad Moughniyeh an attack blamed on the Jewish state. Israel is also believed to be locked in a wider covert war with Iran, whose nuclear program has been beset by sabotage, including the unclaimed killings of several Iranian nuclear scientists, most recently in January. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to blame both Iran and Hezbollah, accusing them of responsibility for a string of recent attempted attacks in countries as far apart as Thailand and Azerbaijan. Iran and its proxy Hezbollah are behind each of these attacks, said Netanyahu. We will continue to take strong and systematic, yet patient, action against the international terrorism that originates in Iran. Irans ambassador to India denied that his government had anything to do with the attack on the New Delhi embassy.

Any terrorist attack is condemned (by Iran) and we strongly reject the untrue comments by an Israeli official, Mehdi Nabizadeh was quoted as saying by IRNA. These accusations are untrue and sheer lies, like previous times. Israeli officials have long made veiled threats to retaliate in Lebanon for any Hezbollah attack on their interests abroad, arguing that as the militia sits in the government in Beirut, its actions reflect national policy. MOTORCYCLE ATTACK The New Delhi blast took place some 500 meters from the official residence of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. B.K. Gupta, the New Delhi police commissioner, said an eyewitness had seen a motorcyclist stick a device to the back of the car, which had diplomatic plates. The eyewitness says it (was) some kind of magnetic device. As soon as the motorcycle moved away a good distance from the car, the car blew up and it caught fire, said Gupta. The Iranian scientist killed in Tehran last month died in a similar such attack. No one has claimed responsibility for this. Israel named the injured woman as Talya Yehoshua Koren. She was able to drag herself from the car and is now at the American hospital (in New Delhi), where two Israeli doctors are treating her, said a Defence ministry spokesman. Thailand said last month its police had arrested a Lebanese man linked to Hezbollah and he later led them to a warehouse stocked with bomb-making materials. Also last month, authorities in Azerbaijan arrested two people suspected of plotting to attack Israels ambassador and a local rabbi. In a January 24 speech, Israels military chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz, accused Hezbollah of trying to carry out proxy attacks while avoiding direct confrontation. Israel and

Hezbollah fought an inconclusive and costly war in 2006. During this period of time, when our enemies in the north avoid carrying out attacks, fearing a harsh response, we are witnesses to the ongoing

attempts by Hezbollah and other hostile entities to execute vicious terror attacks at locations far away from the state of Israel, Gantz said. I suggest that no one test our resolve.

Israel may not strike back too hard: analysts

Israel is unlikely to respond harshly, as they were low-level hits that do not warrant strong retaliation, analysts here said.
PTI, Feb 14, 2012

espite some tough rhetoric against Iran and Hizbullah following attacks on Israeli targets in New Delhi and Tblisi, Israel is unlikely to respond harshly, as they were low-level hits that do not warrant strong retaliation, analysts here said. Israels Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue to act forcefully, systematically and patiently against Iranian terror and his foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said his country would not overlook the attacks, but experts here do not see the attacks leading to tough response for varied reasons. One reason for this is that if, as is widely believed, Israel is behind a recent series of assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Tehran, government officials presumably knew that revenge attacks were likely and took that possibility into account, an opinion piece in daily Haaretz said. It said though an innocent diplomats wife cannot be compared to a scientist directly involved in Irans nuclear programme, Mondays attacks were still limited enough, and did not violate the rules of the game. Indeed, the modus operandi of the New Delhi bombing exactly mimicked that used to kill several of the Iranian scientists, he added, concluding that hence a direct Israeli military strike on either Hizbullah or Iran seems unlikely. The other explanation put forward in this regard in the local media is that while Iran and Hizbullah have been trying to take revenge for Imad Mughniyehs assassination ever since it occurred on February 12, 2008, Tal Yehoshua, the Israeli diplomats wife, is the first casualty in a long line of failed attacks. The previous attacks, which according to international media, have been thwarted by close cooperation between Israeli intelligence and local security services, included attempts to bomb the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan, to assassinate an Israeli consul in Turkey, and, most recently, to bomb popular tourist sites frequented by Israelis in Thailand. Netanyahu also referred to some of these at-

tacks yesterday in his reaction. Mondays targets, two embassy cars neither of which was on mission grounds at the time, were both relatively low-level targets located at the outer perimeter of the security envelope Israel provides its overseas embassies and consulates, an analyst said. This may indicate that Hizbollah and Iran are having trouble reaching more prestigious targets, he inferred. Moreover, while both attacks attest to careful observation and planning and precise execution, the results were meager enough that neither Tehran nor Beirut is likely to be rejoicing, he stressed. Nevertheless, some feel that the attacks may be the first in a series of such attacks to follow. These analysts feel that the planners of the attacks deliberately chose to inflict modest damage while they were capable of wreaking greater harm. They backed the contention by arguing that Israel has repeatedly warned that a mass-casualty Hizbullah attack on Israeli targets overseas would spark a massive Israeli assault on Lebanon, and that is something Iran doesnt seem to want right now. Some experts also saw the attacks in the light of surprising comments made last week by Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a speech in Beirut in which he stressed that his faction doesnt take orders from Iran. It could be that Nasrallah already knew of the plans for Mondays attacks and was trying to portray them as independent Hizbullah initiatives, an expert said in his opinion piece. Hizbullahs interest in distancing itself from Iran, at least verbally, stems in part from the organisations difficult domestic situation, he noted. Tuesday is the seventh anniversary of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariris assassination, and despite Nasrallahs repeated

denials, many Lebanese, along with much of the international community, think that Hizbullah was behind that killing. Adding to Hizbullahs domestic woes is the fact that one of its key allies, the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, may not survive.

The Syrian opposition no longer bothers to hide its loathing for Hizbullah and Iran, so a new Syrian government would likely be bad news for the Lebanese organisation.

US: A tight rope walk

US, Europe look at fast

but risky penalty on

Iran

The United States and Europe are weighing unprecedented punishment against Iran that could cripple the countrys financial lifeline but result in higher oil prices for the US and its allies.
PTI, Feb 14, 2012

ashington: The United States and Europe are weighing unprecedented punishment against Iran that could cripple the countrys financial lifeline but result in higher oil prices for the US and its allies. Underscoring the potential costs, Iran on Wednesday cut oil exports to six European countries. The Obama administration wants Iran evicted from SWIFT, an independent financial clearinghouse that is crucial to the countrys overseas oil sales. That would leapfrog the current slow-pressure campaign of sanctions aimed at persuading Iran to drop what the US and its allies contend is a drive toward developing and building nuclear weapons. It also perhaps would buy time for the US to persuade Israel not to launch a pre-emptive military strike on Iran this spring. But its an extreme option in the banking world that would come with its own costs oil prices could soar, even as many of the worlds economies are still frail. Underscoring that possibility, Iran on Wednesday cut oil exports to the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Portugal. And in another defiant move, Iran began loading domestically made nuclear fuel rods into its Tehran research reactor. In the financial world, the United States cant order SWIFT to kick Iran out. But it has leverage in that it can punish the Brussels-based organisations board of directors. Talks are focused now on having Europe make the first move. Short of total expulsion, Washington and representatives of several European nations are in talks over ways to restrict Irans use of the banking consortium to collect oil profits. The Obama administration is divided over whether the possible gain is worth the risk in trying to threaten SWIFT into kicking out a member country, in part because of concern that it would set back the global financial recovery. Iran remains a global financial player de-

spite years of banking sanctions, and blocking it from using the respected transfer system would be a black mark like no other. More than 40 Iranian banks and institutions use SWIFT to process financial transactions, and losing access to that flow of international funds could badly damage the Islamic republics economy. It would also probably hurt average Iranians more than the welter of existing banking sanctions already in place since prices for household goods would rise while the value of Iranian currency would drop. SWIFT handles cross-border payments for more than 10,000 financial institutions and corporations in 210 countries. It lets users exchange financial information securely and reliably, thereby lowering costs and reducing risk. It operates on trust and neutrality SWIFT accepts nearly all comers and does not judge the merits of the transactions passing through its secure message system. Its managers generally brush off investigators and enforcement agencies, telling them to take up suspected wrongdoing directly with nations or corporations. Established in 1973, the essential but littleknown hub is overseen by major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While the US and Europe debate options, some American lawmakers are trying to increase pressure on SWIFT. The Senate Banking Committee passed a measure earlier this month directing the White House to press SWIFT to block Iranian entities. A tougher House bill would compel the administration to sanction SWIFT unless it stopped providing services to Iran. In a brief statement posted on its website, SWIFT said it is committed to fighting misuse of the financial system to finance terrorism and has cooperated with enforcement agencies in the US and Europe.

Dwindling time, rising tension make Iran top fear

Time is running short for Iran to back down without a fight.
AP, Feb 9, 2012

ashington: The prospect of conflict with Iran has eclipsed Afghanistan as the key national security issue with a head-spinning speed. After years of bad blood and an international impasse over Irans disputed nuclear program, why does the threat of war seem so suddenly upon us? The short answer is that Iran has used the years of deadlock over whether it was pursuing a bomb to get within roughly 12 months of being able to build one. Iran claims its nuclear program is not aimed at building a bomb, but it has refused to drop suspect elements of the program. Time is running short for Iran to back down without a fight. Time is also running short for either the United States or Israel to mount a preemptive military strike on Irans nuclear sites, something that seemed far-fetched until fairly recently. It is still unlikely, and for the US represents the last worst option to stop an Iranian bomb. The United States has a very good estimate of when Iran could produce a weapon, President Barack Obama said this week. He said that while he believes the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program can still be resolved through diplomacy, the US has done extensive planning on a range of options. We are prepared to exercise these options should they arise, Obama said during an interview with NBC. He said Israel has not made a decision about whether to launch its own strike. Diplomacy and economic coercion are the main focus for the US and its allies, and the preferred option. But the increasingly strong warnings from Obama and other leaders reflect a global consensus that Iran is closer than ever to joining the nuclear club. In November, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a scathing assessment of the Iranian nuclear program, calling it disturbing and possibly dangerous. The IAEA, a UN body, said it had serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions of a program Iran claims is not intended to guild a weapon.

Close US ally Israel is driving much of the burst of international attention now focused on the likelihood of an Iranian bomb and what to do about it. When a country that refers to you as a cancerous tumor is inching, however slowly, toward a nuclear weapons capability, its understandably difficult to relax and keep quiet, said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran exert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently draws parallels between modern-day Iran and Nazi Germany on the eve of the Holocaust. Last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said there is a growing global understanding that military action may be necessary. For Obama, the threat that the United States might use military force must ring true to Iranian leaders while not sounding alarmist to Americans or jittery oil markets. He has been very cautious, which is why his recent, blunter words are notable. With the clock in mind, the Obama administration is moving much faster than expected to apply the heaviest economic penalties yet on Iran and the oil trade it relies on. This week came a surprise announcement of new sanctions on Irans central bank, a key to the regimes oil profits. Previous rounds of penalties have not changed Irans course, but the U.S. and Europe, which just approved a first-ever oil embargo, argue that they finally have Irans attention. The new oil-focused sanctions are intended to cut the revenue Irans rulers can collect from the countrys oil business without roiling oil markets. While Obama has until late June to make a final decision on how to implement even stronger financial sanctions, a person advising the administration on the penalties said an announcement probably would come well ahead of that deadline. The adviser spoke on condition of anonymity because the White House plan is not final. Among the factors pushing up a decision: the possibility of a unilateral Israeli strike and the desire to avoid disrupting oil markets in the

summer, when gasoline prices are usually already higher. With Republican presidential candidates questioning Obamas toughness on Iran, the White House also has a political interest in appearing to take a proactive approach to enforce the sanctions, rather than simply responding to a congressional deadline, the adviser said. The threat of military action is also used to strengthen the diplomacy. Countries like China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, dont like sanctions but go along because opposing them may increase the likelihood of military action that would spike prices for the oil they buy, Sadjadpour said. White House national security spokesman Tommy Vietor would not comment on whether the timetable is being moved up. He rejected the idea that the administration is under the gun. We said all options on are on the table. That is not bellicose and that is not new, Vietor said. What were trying to do is lead Iran to make a choice. Israel has less time to act than the U.S. if it chose to mount a strike alone, U.S. and other officials said. Because Israel has less firepower, its leaders assess that a unilateral strike would be most effective before summer. After that, by Israeli estimates, Iran may have been able to move too much of its nuclear operation underground, beyond the range of Israeli missile and bomb attacks. There is another reason that Israeli warnings are growing louder. Although Israel and the United States generally agree on the technical

questions surrounding an Iranian bomb, they disagree about how much time that leaves for diplomacy or a last-ditch military strike. Israeli officials who favor a strike do not want to wait for Iran to amass enough material to build a bomb, a debatable moment that could be as little as six months away. U.S. officials are concerned that the ability to make a bomb is not enough justification for a strike. They have argued there is 18 months or more of flexibility before Iran would pose an immediate nuclear threat. Matthew Kroenig, a nuclear expert at the Council on Foreign Relations who recently spent a year advising the Pentagon on Iran options, agrees that the window for an effective strike by either country is closing. The game is over when Iran amasses enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, Kroenig said. If you wait until they screw together a nuclear bomb, its too late. Administration officials are in discussions with several countries, including Japan, South Korea, China and India, to try to get commitments on how much they may be willing to reduce their imports from Iran. Iran exports about 3 percent of the worlds oil and increasingly has focused on selling to customers in Asia as Western markets have dried up. Talks are also under way with Turkey, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Malaysia, all main buyers of Iranian crude. Any sanctions the U.S. ultimately levies would probably target companies in countries that purchase oil from Iran, not central banks, the person advising the administration said.

options on Iran: Obama

Obama today said Washington is ready with all options, including military, against threats coming fromTehran but would prefer to have it resolved diplomatically.
AP, Feb 9, 2012

Ready with all

ashington: Pointing out that US has pretty good bead on Irans nuclear programme, President Barack Obama today said Washington is ready with all options, including military, against threats coming from Tehran but would prefer to have it resolved diplomatically. My goal is to try to resolve this diplomatically, mainly because the only way, over the long term, we can assure Iran doesnt get a nuclear weapon is by getting them to understand its not in their interest, Obama told the NBC news in an interview. In the interview taken yesterday, but aired today, Obama said the US, however, is ready with all the other options if need be. But, did not give details of the military preparations in this regard. Im not going to discuss specific military programmes or go into details in terms of what our planning is.

I will say this, that we have done extensive planning over the last several years about all our various options in the Gulf. And, you know, we are prepared to exercise these options, should the need arise, he said. Obama said the US has good estimate of the progress in Iranian nuclear weapons programme. I think we have a very good estimate of when they could potentially achieve breakout capacity, what stage theyre at in terms of processing uranium, he said. But do we know all the dynamics inside Iran? Absolutely not. I think one of the difficulties is that Iran itself is a lot more divided now than it was. Knowing who is making decisions at any given time inside of Iran is tough. But we do have a pretty good bead on whats happening with their nuclear program, Obama said.

India: And the subcontinent

After Pakistan, is Iran exporting terror to India?

It seems sheer lunacy to suggest that Iran would use India as a base from which to launch terror attacks on Israel. But if theres one thing missing from Irans strategic posturing, its the semblance of sanity.
Venky Vembu, Feb 14, 2012

ondays bomb attack on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Delhi, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed on Iran and the Hezbollah, is bound to intensify the diplomatic heat on India to stop trading with Iran at a time when the US and Israel are tightening the sanctions squeeze on it.

for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. Now that Israeli diplomats have been targeted in New Delhi, it will be increasingly difficult for Indian officials to sweep under the carpet their growing trade relations with Tehran. India, Curtis added, would have to seriously factor the costs of oil trade with Iran to its rapidly growing defence partnership with Israel. The skills of Indian strategists who seek to balance Indias role as a growing global power with its need to guard against the prospect of rising regional instability will be tested in coming months as the international confrontation with Iran intensifies, Curtis noted. In effect, diplomatic pressure is already piling on India. So, it would be sheer idiocy for Iran or the Shia army of Hezbollah over which Iran has control to use India as the platform for an attack, knowing that it would intensify pressure on India to end its trade relationship with Iran. But if theres one thing missing in Irans strategic posturing over its avowed nuclear plans, it is the semblance of sanity. Unlike Pakistan, which acquired its nuclear assets on the sly by flying beneath the radar of international attention, Iran has been drawing excessive attention to its nuclear program with to its over-the-top rhetoric directed against Israel and the US. Even the self-preservation instinct isnt kicking in strong enough among Irans leaders. But whereas India could afford to go out on a diplomatic limb in trading with Iran despite the ongoing war of nerves between that regime and Israel, it could be harder to defend the possibility that Iran is perhaps exporting terror to India, even if it is directed at a third country. Indian diplomats have in the past fretted that Iran was looking to influence opinion makers in India, including journalists and policy thinktank officials, to project an anti-American view and influence Indian foreign policy to acquire a proIran, anti-US tilt. An Indian diplomat confided to US officials in

Iran has rejected the Israeli accusation of Iranian involvement as sheer lies. Irans ambassador to New Delhi Mehdi Nabizadeh dismissed Netanyahus charge as untrue and sheer lies, like previous times. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast went further to suggest that the blast was the work of Israel to defame Iran internationally. It seems that these suspicious incidents are designed by the Zionist regime and carried out with the aim of harming Irans reputation, he said. On the face of it, it seems counter-intuitive, even downright lunacy, for Iran to use Indian territory as the base for an extra-territorial attack on Israel. After all, India is one of the last major economies that is resolutely holding out against abiding by the sanctions imposed on Iran and has even told the US off bluntly. Even as recently as last week, Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai, who was on a visit to Washington, told US authorities that India would not sever its oil trade with Iran; Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee too had been extraordinarily blunt in conveying the same message to the US when he too was in the US last fortnight. India has in recent days come under immense pressure from US officials and Jewish lobby groups in the US to sever its relationship with Iran. The American Jewish Congress, a strong pressure group in the US, recently wrote to Indias ambassador in the US Nirupama Rao expressing alarm and dismayover indias move to elevate commercial interests with Iran over vital security concerns. After Mondays bomb blast, India will find it increasingly difficult to placate both Iran, on the one hand, and the US and Israel, on the other, says Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow

2007 that there was evidence that Iran has been buying off journalists, clerics and editors in Shia-populated areas of Uttar Pradesh and Kashmir, doling out large sums to stoke antiAmericanism. He also suggested that increasingly, it appeared that Iran was focussing squarely on influential elite audiences in Delhi, with a view to shaping the debate of Indias (nuclear energy) policy and the (Indo-US) nuclear deal. But whereas such propaganda wars may be tolerable from an Indian perspective, any sugges-

tion that Iran is now going beyond that to use the weak internal security situation in India as an opening to wage terror attacks on diplomats of third countries is fraught with grave consequences. Even if India doesnt wish to be caught up in the tug-of-war in West Asia over Israels opposition to Irans nuclear weapons program, it might prove increasingly difficult for India to avoid being dragged in. That faraway battle is now coming closer home to India.

India: A friend of two enemies

India is suddenly caught in the fight between Iran and Israel. The need of the hour is a clinically perfect diplomatic response from New Delhi.
Simantik Dowerah, Feb 13, 2012

ndia seems to be in a delicate situation, caught between two friends, following the alleged Iranian hand behind the attack on the Israeli diplomat vehicle in the heart of New Delhi. While Iran is a massive supplier of crude oil to India, Israel has a very close relationship with New Delhi in terms of defence cooperation. Following the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu squarely blamed Tehran for the terror attack on a woman Israeli diplomat on Monday afternoon, that critically injured her. New Delhi was already facing challenges while importing crude from Iran owing to payment related problems that surfaced due to sanctions by the Barack Obama administration on the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regimes nuclear ambitions. For 2010-11, Indias total trade with Iran was equal to $13.67 billion, which included imports worth $10.92 billion and exports worth $2.74 billion, a Times of India report said today. Adding to the complications, Iran which has till date not recognised Israel as a sovereign state, has serious differences with Jerusalem on its nuclear programme. Lately there have been several news reports that Israel might attack Irans nuclear facilities and that it was responsible for the elimination of a key nuclear scientist of the alienated Islamic regime. This enmity is old but the problem for India is that if Israels current allegations are true, then the Israel-Iran fight has just spilled over to a neutral country.

The blast in New Delhi today cannot be seen in isolation of the current geo-political crisis in the Middle East. The blast might have far-reaching ramifications for Indias energy and defence needs. Israelis were victims in the 2008 terror attacks on a Jewish centre in Mumbai. However, in that attack by Pakistani terrorists the Iranian angle was not there. Ironically, India and Iran agreed upon a rupee mechanism on Monday to pay for the increasing oil imports by New Delhi. While India cannot afford to stop importing oil from Iran which is relatively cheaper, it cannot manage to antagonise Israel as well. India needs Israeli weapons and military expertise both for external and internal security. Starting from AWACS, India bought Thermal Imaging Stand Alone Systems and Long-Range Reconnaissance and Observation Systems for its armed forces. Missiles like Barack and Spike are also part of Indian military weaponry. The India-Israel defence trade that runs into billions of dollars also include Harop UAVs and naval cooperations besides training of personnel. With the two foes now allegedly shifting their fight to a friends backyard, Indian foreign ministry officials under the stewardship of External Affairs Minister SM Krishna are unexpectedly and unwillingly dragged to a new diplomatic tangle. They have to make sure that their diplomatic response does not escalate the supposed fight on the Indian soil and must also ensure that ties with the two strategically important nations are not hampered.

Its in Indias interest to crack Israeli embassy car bomb case

Even if India declines US offers to assist in the investigation of the Delhi car bomb blast targeting Israel, it must bring the perpetrators to justice - in its own interest.
Uttara Choudhury, Feb 15, 2012

ew York: India is under tremendous pressure, especially from the United States and Israel, to investigate the terrorist attack on Israeli diplomatic targets in New Delhi and bring the perpetrators to justice. While condemning the car bombing in New Delhi which left four Israelis injured, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton indicated the United States was ready to assist with the investigation of these cowardly acts, which Israel has blamed on Iran and its ally, the Shiite militant group Hezbollah. Chances are that India will not accept the American offer of assistance, said South Asia expert Sumit Ganguly, who holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University in Bloomington. I will be quite surprised if India does because there is a real sense of pride and also a certain amount of sensitivity about allowing the US to come in and sort of poke around. Mondays bombing, which targeted Tal Yehoshua Koren, the wife of the Israeli defence attach in and Israels reflexive indictment of Iran for the incident threaten to put India right in the middle of escalating tensions over US and Israeli efforts to shut down Irans nuclear program. Of course, there is great pressure: you would expect that in the case of a foreign diplomat being harmed on Indian soil. India has a very robust defence relationship with Israel which it does not want to see disturbed. The Israelis are particularly sensitive to questions of terror, said Ganguly. India will put some very able people to work on this case because the last thing it wants is for the world to think Indias national capital is unsafe for foreign diplomats, quite apart from Israeli or US concerns. It is in Indias selfinterest to ensure there is a thorough, swift and forthright investigation to reassure members of the diplomatic community in Delhi who have hitherto had a pleasant existence and not been subject to car bombs, added Ganguly. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has blamed Iran and the Shia militant group Hezbollah for the attack in New Delhi and for

another attempted bombing in the Georgian capital that was averted. Iran has denied the charge and Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, Israel launched attacks against its own embassies in New Delhi and Tbilisi in order to tarnish Irans friendly ties with the host countries. Israel perpetrated the terror actions to launch psychological warfare against Iran. Ganguly cautioned against jumping to conclusions about complicity in the bomb attack. If there is indeed a link to Iran, this would mean that India is not only faced with Sunni terror but also Shia terror and that would be downright unfortunate quite apart from the diplomatic potential fallout with Iran that could ensue, he said. India relies on Iran for about 12 percent of its oil imports or 3,50,000-4,00,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is Irans second-biggest oil client after China. India has rejected US pressure to join a ban of oil imports from Iran and made it as plain as daylight that it will continue to trade with Tehran. The incidents in India and Georgia came a day after the anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah military chief Imad Mughniyeh in 2008, which Iran has blamed on the Israeli secret service Mossad. Mugniyah was killed when an explosive was planted in the headrest of the drivers seat of his jeep and the Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Israel has denied it was responsible. Israeli analysts say it is unlikely that the New Delhi attack was actually carried out by the Hezbollah or by Irans special forces. Instead, they believe, locals belonging to a collaborator network may have set off the sticky car bomb which has a magnetic base. It may have taken the bike-borne assailants only a few seconds to attach it to the diplomats car. Reports suggest the wife of the Israeli defence attach in India, who was injured in the bombing, may have managed to get out of the car after she saw the terrorist attach the sticky bomb. Israel will probably send intelligence agents to work with the Indians, and India without much fanfare will probably work quietly with

the Israelis to crack open the case. The Delhi Police is treating the explosion as a terrorist attack, although it hasnt pointed a finger at anyone. Israeli officials appear confident about finding the terrorists. We know how to identify exactly who is responsible for the attacks, said foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman.

With or without Israeli help, India must nail the terrorists to signal that it can provide security to foreign diplomats and their spouses who are soft targets. It is in Indias interest, let alone what the United States or Israel thinks about the matter, said Ganguly.

If weve to choose between

choose the former

Israel and Iran,

The Delhi terror attack on an Israeli embassy car and the Maldives semi-coup tells us that our wishy-washy assessment of national interest is flawed.
R Jagannathan, Feb 15, 2012

he sticker-bomb attack on an Israeli embassy car in Delhi and the soft coup in Maldives, supported by Islamic extremists, show how sadly out of touch Indias foreign policy establishment is about the challenges facing the country from Islamic extremism and global powerplays. Indias policy responses have been inadequate since they flow from non-strategic thinking, and a vain belief that our neighbours will see the benefit of peaceful cooperation and progress. But this is simply not true. Certainly not with China, Pakistan and that autonomous force called Islamic fundamentalism. Two simple illustrations will help illustrate this point. In the car-bomb case, Israel has accused Iran of being behind the attack. We have, so far, rightly refrained from falling for this, but no matter what turns out to be the truth, we need to ask ourselves one thing: how has our kowtowing to the Islamic world benefited us? We can say cheap oil but neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia is in the business of selling us cheap oil. But even while profiting from selling us their oil, they follow policies driven by Islamism that are against our interests in Kashmir and in the rest of India. In the Maldives, an island country with barely 400,000 people, recent developments have been largely anti-India in content. In the rioting that preceded the ouster of the countrys first democratically-elected president, Mohammed Nasheed, guess what the rioters targeted: a museum with Indian artifacts. The Washington Post, quoting AP reports, notes that the Maldives national museum reopened on Tuesday minus all its pre-Islamic era exhibits. About 35 exhibits mostly images of the Buddha and Hindu gods were destroyed. According to museum director Ali Waheed, 99 percent of the Maldives pre-Islamic artifacts from before the 12th century, when most inhabitants were Buddhists or Hindus, were destroyed. Some of the pieces can be put together but mostly they are made of sandstone, coral and limestone, and they are reduced to powder, he said.

Even worse was Waheeds explanation for the vandalism. According to an ABC News report, Waheed said the attackers did not understand that the museum exhibits were not promoting other religions in this Muslim country. So, clearly, even in tiny Maldives, extremism is alive and well. And big powers inimical to India are fishing in the Maldives. An Indian Express interview with deposed President Mohammed Nasheed quotes him as saying that his army was in favour of a defence pact with China. Why does Maldives need a defence pact? And against whom? India?

In fact, senior defence officers told Nasheed he had to sign the China defence agreement. I had the paper on my desk two weeks back to approve the agreement. The MNDF (Maldivian National Defence Force) had sent it three months ago also but I refused to sign it. They sent it again saying that I have to sign it, said Nasheed. So why did India acquiesce in the replacement of Nasheed by his deputy? To give China a free run in the neighbourhood? Do we really know where our interests lie? Now, the car bomb base. Thanks to Indias large Muslim population, our foreign policy has been skewed towards appeasing domestic Muslim sentiment by seeming to be friendly with all the murderous regimes of West Asia instead of creating long-term alliances that are truly in our interest.

In this case, it should be obvious to anyone that Indias strategic interests are most tied to Israel, which faces the same kind of hostile neighbourhood that India does though it bears repeating that we have done nothing to deserve anyones enmity, while Israel has. Indias friendship may even help Israel follow a less brutally repressive regime in Palestine but that is another story. For now, we will focus on our hostile neighbourhood. Between Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Burma, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives, only Bhutan really counts as a friendly neighbour and it almost does not count.

are a Hindu country and we allow all Nepalese to enter India freely to work and to prosper, they should be thankful for the same. Wrong. The Nepali Communists have used both the populations innate envy of India and Chinas willingness to invest there to put India on notice. Clearly, we have to rebuild trust with Nepal, even while quietly leaning on them to protect our interests. Bangladesh: We have squandered an opportunity to rebuild our relationship during Sheikh Hasinas regime. She has tried to reduce the overt Islamism of the regime, and taken the country towards secularism, even while being helpful in reducing the Islamic fringes anti-India activities. Clearly, we need to deliver more to Bangladesh in terms of trading benefits. Perhaps, we need to have an arrangement like Nepal for free movement of people here for work. It is happening clandestinely. Many Bangladeshis have even entered voter lists. Demography is destiny. There is nothing we can do to reduce the Bangladeshi influx just as the US cannot do anything about Hispanic immigration. We now need to formalise an arrangement with Bangladesh by giving more work permits to its citizens, but without voting or citizenship rights.

This does not mean all the others are our enemies, but it does mean we need to have a separate policy for each one of them. China is making its moves everywhere, and so is Pakistan (or Pakistan-based Islamic groups). Chinas bid for a defence pact in the Maldives which can have no target but India shows whats going on. Add the Islamic thrust of the Maldivian rebels, and it is not difficult to see how both China and Islamic groups may be involved. If we assume that Pakistan is always going to be an enemy, and China an ever-present military threat and half-enemy, it figures that we have to get the rest of our policies right, apart from the larger geopolitical alignments. Heres a birds eye view of all our neighbours and what we need to do with each one of them: Nepal: We have traditionally presumed Nepali friendship, on the assumption that since they

Sri Lanka: With our southern neighbour, our relationship has been much better after the end of the LTTE. But China is already spending huge amounts to woo Sri Lanka and that country is happy to use this opportunity. Tamil Nadus on-and-off efforts to stoke trouble among the Tamils of northern Sri Lanka make it easier for that country to seek Chinese help as an insurance policy. Indias policy needs three elements: a guarantee that Tamil politicians will not start meddling in that countrys ethnic issues; more Indian investment to counter the Chinese; and a free trade agreement that is tilted towards Sri Lanka. Myanmar: We seem to have got the broader policy of engagement and slow march towards democracy largely right in Myanmar. We should now open up border trade, both to benefit them and our eastern states. An eastern Free Trade Area comprising West Bengal, Bangladesh,

Burma, and our north-eastern states will lift millions out of poverty in less than one or two decades. Pakistan: Our western neighbour will always remain an enemy till its army and the mullahs realise that Islamism is not the answer. So the best thing we can do is to keep improving trade, but we will always have to stay vigilant on terrorism and other kinds of mischief. Pakistan can always count on China to back it against India as long as the Islamists who work on their own agendas prove too difficult for the Chinese themselves to deal with. China: With China, only a hard line will work. We need to beef up our defences, both the army and airforce, both in the north-east and in Ladakh, and we have to stop saying that Tibet is a part of China. While we dont have to go the other way and talk about Tibetan independence, we should stop mentioning Tibet as a part of China till China reciprocates our goodwill. Currently, China takes our goodwill for granted, but gives nothing in return. This wont work. We have to move out of the Nehruvian mould on foreign policy driven by generosity and righteousness. This brings us to the larger geopolitical alignments we need to make to counter Pakistan, China and the Islamic powers that back Pakistan for their own and fundamentalist reasons. Indias natural partners are the US, Russia, Japan, and Israel. The first three are important as a counterweight to China, and the last one is important in our anti-terror stance. In the Muslim world, India needs good relationships with Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but we have to be clear that the relationship must be based on quid pro quo. Iran is the fountainhead of the Shia world, and hence a natural rival to Saudi Arabia, which foments hardline Wahabi doctrines. But Iran is a fundamentalist regime in its own way, and so our relationship should be based on mutual respect and balance.

If Iran is going to keep backing the Kashmir cause, we need to make it clear that it comes at a cost. Ditto for Saudi Arabia where we have to oppose their funding of conservative ulema and Wahabi mosque building. We cannot do this without first reducing our dependence on Iranian and Saudi oil. Its not impossible, but the change has to start by pricing our oil at realistic levels. Our foolish subsidisation of oil diesel, kerosene and cooking gas makes our people use oil inefficiently, increasing our dependence on Saudi and Iranian oil. We are actually subsidising Saudi Arabia and Iran not our poor. A higher price for oil means alternative sources of hydrocarbon and renewable energy will become more economic. Thanks to high oil prices, and the discovery of shale oil and gas, Americas dependence on West Asian oil is down to just 16 percent of imports, which too are down from 60 percent of US needs to just around 46 percent, says a report in The Wall Street Journal. Israel, with the worlds third largest reserves of shale, is also heading towards less dependence on oil. And India? We now import 80 percent of our oil requirements, and due to unfair pricing, our gas output is also falling even though we have lots of it in the Krishna-Godavari basin. We are busy increasing our dependence on West Asian oil, and circumscribing our foreign policy options in the process. If we had to choose between Iran and Israel, who should we then choose? The answer is obvious. With Israel we have no conflicts of interest. While this does not mean we should be drawn into Israels larger West Asian conflicts, there is no reason why we should not expand our economic, defence, security and geopolitical relationship to the limit.

Ahmadinejad to visit China next month: Report

Analysts say that the trip will aim to secure oil exports to China amid a fresh wave of sanctions.
PTI, Feb 14, 2012

eijing: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit China next month amid a fresh wave of Western sanctions over its controversial nuclear programme. Ramin Mehmanparast, a spokesman for Irans Foreign Ministry, was quoted by the state-run Global Times as saying that Ahmadinejad would visit China along with a high-level delegation. Analysts say that the trip will aim to secure oil exports to China amid a fresh wave of sanctions, the Times reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said Ahmadinejad would visit China before the end of the Iranian calendar year on 19 March, at the invitation of the Chinese leadership. Ahmadinejads trip to China would come after visits to Beijing by Western leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who sought to persuade China to join in sanctions against Iran. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is also currently on a visit to the US. The EU reached an agreement last month to ban Iranian oil imports starting from July and freeze the assets of Irans central bank on its territory. US President Barack Obama last week ordered a freeze on property and assets belonging to the Iranian government, its central bank and all Iranian financial institutions. Mohammad Kermani, a professor with Irans Institute for Political and International Studies, told the Times that through Ahmadinejads trip, Iran seeks to deepen strategic and political cooperation with China. Iran hopes China can play a more important role in the global political arena. China has a full-fledged economy, and it could only be

deemed as a global power if it plays a bigger role in international politics, Kermani said. Meanwhile, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu flew to Tehran on Sunday for a twoday visit to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue. Ma said that China is willing to maintain close communication with related parties to promote the early resumption of talks between six representative nations, Britain, China, France, Russia, the US and Germany and Iran. According to Chinas foreign ministry, Ma also asked Iran to enhance cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with the Iranian side replying that it is willing to resume talks with the six nations at an early date and continue to strengthen cooperation with the IAEA. Li Weijian, director at the Centre of Western Asian and African Studies of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told Times that Chinas mediation is crucial in solving the Iranian nuclear issue as Western countries and Iran are reluctant to engage with each other. Ahmadinejad is eager to visit Beijing and to have direct talks with Chinese leaders. After the EU announced the oil embargo, a move threatening to cut Irans economic pillar, it is crucial for Ahmadinejad to ensure China and other major Asian oil importers do not follow suit, Li said. Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi is reportedly making a trip to China from Sunday to Thursday. He will also visit Japan, India and Russia. In response to Western sanctions, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Pain at the pump: Oil prices spike after Irans sabre-rattling

Fear of supply disruptions drive oil prices to their highest level in months after Irans dramatic announcement of advances in its nuclear technology.
Uttara Choudhury, Feb 16, 2012

ew York: Prices for Brent crude oil rose on Wedesday to their highest level since April 2011 as fears mounted about supply disruptions from Iran, which has indicated it might halt shipments of oil to Europe. Harangued by international sanctions over its nuclear programme, including a planned oil embargo by Europe, Iran warned six European buyers on Wednesday that it might strike first by immediately cutting them off from Iranian oil. Irans official Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the ambassadors of Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Greece and Portugal were summoned on Wednesday and told that Iran had no problem replacing customers; an implied threat that Iran would carry out plans to cut European countries off immediately to preempt sanctions set to go into effect in July. Officials said an earlier report by Press TV, Irans state-financed satellite broadcaster, that Iran had already banned oil exports to the six countries in retaliation for sanctions was inaccurate. Still, oil prices rocketed as the global markets were on edge. Brent crude which is the benchmark for prices in Europe spiked more than 1.8 percent on Wednesday to $119.53 per barrel before retreating somewhat by late morning. It ended the day up 0.9 percent at $118.41 a barrel. The price of oil has been steadily rising over the past several weeks as investors fret about America and Europe imposing sanctions to restrict Irans ability to sell oil. India caught between a rock and a hard place India and China, which are the biggest buyers of Iranian crude, have refused to fall in line with the US-led sanctions but there is intense pressure on India to cut its dependence on Iranian oil. India relies on Iran for about 12 percent of

its oil imports or 3,50,000-4,00,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is Irans second-biggest oil client after China. Although India has rejected US pressure to join a ban of oil imports from Iran and made it as plain as daylight that it will continue to trade with Tehran the sticky car bomb attack in Delhi on Israeli targets can change everything. Delhi is turning out to be Irans last best friend, but everything could turn on the evidence that emerges in the car bomb terror case. If there is an Iran link to the Israeli embassy car bomb attack in Delhi we suspect it will be hard for India go back to business as usual with Iran, an analyst at Strategic Energy & Economic Research, told Firstpost. In 2011, rising oil prices and a falling rupee spelt double trouble for the Indian economy, which depends on imports for 70 percent of its fuel needs. Connecting the dots Meanwhile, developments in the investigation of a botched bombing in Bangkok raised fears among some security analysts that a series of suspected assassination attempts involving Israel and Iran could spread to other parts of the world. There have been three incidents in two days, in New Delhi, Tbilisi and Bangkok. According to Thailands police chief Priewphan Damaphong, the Iranians arrested after the blasts on a Bangkok street aimed to attack Israeli diplomats. Significantly, he said the devices used were similar to bombs targeting Israelis in India and Georgia this week. The type of explosive device is similar to the incident in India, Priewphan told reporters in Bangkok. The men were not targeting a place. The incidents in India, Georgia and Thailand have stoked huge tensions and belligerent Israeli leaders havent ruled out a military strike.

Scan QR code or click to download our iPad / iPhone app

iPad

iPhone

Copyright 2011 Firstpost All rights reserved Copyright Network18. All rights reserved.