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Cities, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 263269, 2000 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0264-2751/00 $-see front matter

Link between population and number of vehicles

Evidence from Indian cities
R Ramanathan
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, General Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (East), Mumbai 400 065, India

We show using data from Indian cities that the number of vehicles in cities could increase along an S-shaped pattern with population. Such a pattern of growth can lead to a number of problems as (1) India has several small but growing towns that will witness a rapid growth in the number of vehicles as they grow, and (2) the vehicular increase in India has so far been dominated by personalised modes that are not energy-efcient and environmentally benign. The implications of such growth and some strategies for overcoming the problems are briey discussed in this paper. 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Keywords: India, Population, Vehicular population, S-shaped pattern

Introduction
Like the trend world-wide, India is undergoing rapid urbanisation. This means not only that more people than ever before will be living and working in cities, but also that more people and more goods will be making more trips in urban areas, often over longer distances. Transport is a crucial infrastructure for development and hence vehicular growth closely follows the trend of urbanisation. In this paper, we highlight a crucial link between population and the number of vehicles observed in Indian cities that is likely to have far-reaching consequences for urban planning. We discuss the main implications of our nding, and discuss briey the strategies available for tackling them.

Patterns of growth of urban transport in India

Urban transport patterns in general, and the growth of private modes of transport in particular, closely follow urban population. In the afuent societies of the
*Tel.: 91-22-840-0919/20; fax: mail: ramanathan@igidr.ac.in 91-22-840-2752/2026; e-

developed countries, increased urbanisation has increased the number of cars, while the cities of developing countries are witnessing a tremendous growth of two- and three-wheeler vehicles as the city size increases. India is no exception to this trend. We begin with an analysis of the growth of registered motor vehicles in various metropolitan cities (ie, cities with a population of more than one million) of India. Details are shown in Table 1. Metropolitan cities account for about one-third of total vehicles in India. The table shows that the growth rate of all registered vehicles was more than 10% per year in the big cities of Ahmadabad, Bangalore, Delhi, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Chennai, Nagpur and Pune in the eighties, dropping to about 8% per year or less for the period 199194. However, the growth rate has been quite high (about 13% or more per year during 199194) for the next level cities of Bhopal, Cochin, Coimbatore, Madurai, Surat and Vadodara (which are recognised as metropolitan cities according to the 1991 census). In fact, Coimbatore recorded a very high growth rate of 20.33% per year during the period 199194. The only important exception to this trend has been Mumbai, which recorded a negative growth rate of 1.13% per year during the period 198194. These trends indicate that the growth rate of vehicles could increase with city size.
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Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

Table 1 Registered motor vehicles (in thousands) in metropolitan cities in India (year on 31st March) 1981 1991 1994 Change per year (%) 198191 Ahmedabad Bangalore Bhopal Bombay Calcutta Cochin Coimbatore Delhi Hyderabad Indore Jaipur Kanpur Lucknow Ludhiana Madras Madurai Nagpur Patna Pune Surat Vadodara Varanasi Visakhapatnam Total for the metropolitan citiesa Total for India Share of metropolitan cities (%) 103 175 307 536 89 48 56 53 120 45 107 1639 5391 30.40 374 577 130 629 475 29 66 1813 443 214 266 169 216 202 544 38 167 180 280 197 162 112 142 7392 21 374 34.58 478 716 188 608 544 42 115 2239 543 267 339 209 266 258 689 57 185 197 331 271 212 146 165 9070 27 227 33.31 13.76 12.67 7.44 12.96 17.41 18.68 11.68 15.08 16.32 14.01 10.10 12.76 14.77 199194 8.52 7.46 13.08 1.13 4.62 13.14 20.33 7.29 7.02 7.65 8.42 7.34 7.19 8.50 8.19 14.47 3.47 3.05 5.74 11.22 9.38 9.24 5.13 7.06 8.40

Source: Ministry of Surface Transport (1995). a Columns 2 and 5 in the last three rows pertain only to the 11 cities for which data are available for 1981.

This observation is depicted graphically in Fig. 1,1 where the trend of vehicular population is plotted with respect to city size (measured in terms of population) for different years. The gure indicates that the number of vehicles in a city is likely to grow approximately along an S-shaped pattern as the city size increases. The gure also shows the tted S-curves for two different time periods the 1980s and the 1990s. Some statistical details regarding the tted curves are given in Table 2. The F-test indicates a signicant t for the two time periods. Note that the trend is more pronounced in the nineties than in the eighties. A similar pattern of growth is observed for individual cities also. The growth pattern of the city of Mumbai (formerly Bombay) is plotted in Fig. 2, which approximately conrms to the S-shaped pattern. The tted S-curve, also shown in the gure, shows a very signicant t, with R2 0.94 and F-value at 90. To our knowledge, this study seems to be the rst
1 Vehicular population represents the population as on 31st March. Note that the graph for the year 1996 is slightly different from those of the previous years. The reason is the non-availability of data for some cities such as Hyderabad, Calcutta, etc. Data pertaining to Delhi have been excluded, as the number of vehicles in Delhi is much higher compared with the number in other cities and hence is considered as an outlier.

one to identify such an S-shaped logistic relationship between the number of vehicles and the population of different cities. We hope that a similar pattern will be identied if similar plots for different cities in the world are analysed. However, it will form the basis for further research. Some factors contributing the S-shaped growth pattern It is important to study the determinants of the Sshaped growth pattern. Economic growth is a main factor determining the demand for vehicles. The Sshaped pattern can be argued using the following hypothesis involving income levels and availability of transport infrastructure. However, testing of this hypothesis is beyond the scope of the present paper, and will form part of future research. Smaller cities obviously have smaller numbers of vehicles. But, as the city size increases, the number of vehicles tends to grow slowly until the city reaches a certain critical size. This happens when the existing transport network and transport vehicles are enough to meet the demands of the economic activities in these cities. The general income levels of people in these cities also are not high enough to invest more on personalised transport. Once the critical size is reached, the city enters a rapid phase and there is a

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Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

Figure 1 Variation of the number of vehicles with population in Indian cities (excluding Delhi data). Sources: various issues of Motor Transport Statistics and census documents, published by the Government of India

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Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

Table 2 Period 1990s 1980s Statistical details of the tted S-curves R-squared 0.71 0.64 F-value* 242.70 48.25

*Indicates a highly signicant t for both of the time periods.

sudden and rapid rise in the number of vehicles. This rapid growth may be attributed to the level of economic activity in the city. The increased economic activities raise the income level of people, allowing them to invest more in personalised travel. Also, increased economic activities demand a larger mobility of passengers and freight, and larger additions to transport infrastructure and equipment. However, the growth of vehicles tends to reduce beyond another critical level. This can happen when infrastructural bottlenecks tend to limit the economic activities and insufcient road infrastructure discourages personalised travel in mega cities. However, when additional infrastructure for transport is provided in these large cities, economic activities and hence vehicular growth will continue to increase at a higher rate. For example, Table 1 shows a negative growth in the number of vehicles in Mumbai in 1994, which may reverse as several yovers and elevated driveways are proposed to be completed by the end of the year 1999. There can be another reason for the saturation lev-

els found in mega cities. Vehicular growth in these cities can get shifted to city fringes and regions adjacent to the city, as people working in the city tend to reside on the cheaper city fringes. People may also prefer to register their vehicles outside the city limits to avoid the high cost of vehicle registration. Urban form tends to affect the growth of vehicles in cities. Linear cities, such as Mumbai, cannot expand on all sides. With its main activities focused on the small island area, Mumbai has expanded linearly. People in these cities stay in the faraway suburban areas, and commute a long distance daily. In contrast, a circular city will have more efcient urban form, as people can stay in all directions from the main city centre. Thus the urban form can be an important factor in determining the growth of vehicles. Prices can also inuence vehicular growth. In principle, vehicular growth can be checked by using appropriate pricing policies. However, available evidence seems to indicate that price may not substantially inuence vehicular growth. For example, Ramanathan (1999a, b) has shown that prices have a very small (though signicant) inuence on transport performance and gasoline consumption in India. The S-shaped pattern can also be altered by other policy formulations. For example, if a city is developed to encourage walking and cycling by providing all facilities in a smaller geographical area, the growth of motorised vehicles may be reduced. Many cities expand because people settle in the cheaper per-

Figure 2 Variation of the number of vehicles with population in Mumbai

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Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

iphery regions of the city, and prefer travel to work. This will reduce the population density in cities. This can happen so long as travel is relatively inexpensive compared with land. However, if travel is made more expensive, the horizontal growth of cities will be arrested and consequently there will be less travel.

Implications
This S-shaped logistic pattern of growth of vehicles in urban India has important implications for formulating proper policies for urban transport. These implications can be discussed in terms of two trends: the rapid urbanisation of India and the domination of private modes of transport in the growth of road transport vehicles. Urbanisation in India India has witnessed a tremendous growth in urbanisation since independence (Table 3). The urban population has increased from 62.4 million in 1951 to 217.2 million in 1991, nearly 3.5 times. In 1991, urban population accounted for 25.7% of total population. Urban population has approximately doubled in two decades (say 19611981 or 19711991). There were 296 Class I cities (forming just 8.2% of the total towns of all classes) accommodating 65.2% of the urban population in 1991. Just 23 metropolitan cities (having a population of one million and above) had more than 50% of the population of Class I cities. Table 4 shows the trends in the evolution of metropolitan cities in India. India had only ve metropolitan cities in 1951, which had increased to 23 by 1991. The number nearly doubled during 198191. The proportion of urban population living in metropolitan cities grew rapidly, from about 19% in 1951 to 33% in 1991. This indicates increasing urban population densities in the metropolitan areas. Most of the smaller metropolitan cities have been registering higher population growth (Fig. 3). Bhopal has registered the highest growth its population in 1991 was
Table 3 Growth of urbanisation in India 1951 2843 62.4 17.3 41.4 44.6 10.0 15.7 13.6 13.0 3.1 1961 2365 78.9 18.0 26.4 51.4 11.2 16.9 12.8 6.9 0.8

more than 10 times its population in 1951. India had 93 cities with population above 0.2 million, and 73 cities with population above 0.3 million in the year 1991 (Census of India, 1991). A study by the Government of India has projected that there will be 83 cities in India by 2001 with a population of 0.25 million (MoUD, 1987). Thus, we observe that a number of towns in India are urbanising rapidly. Many of them will enter rapid phase in the near future. If the Sshaped logistic growth shown by Fig. 1 occurs in these towns, a very high level of vehicle growth can be expected in the future. Dominance of private modes of transport The composition of personalised vehicles in Indian cities is very high, and their growth has been much higher than that of public transport vehicles (Ramanathan, 1996, 1997). In the four major metropolitan cities, they form nearly 83% (two-wheelers 52% and cars 31%) of the total number of vehicles. Public buses formed only 30% of the total number of buses in 199192 (declining from about 46% in 198081). The State Transport Undertakings operating bus transport systems have recorded losses for the past few years. The share of public transport buses in the total number of vehicles reduced drastically to just 1.9% in 198990 from 11.5% in 1960 62. In contrast, personalised and intermediate passenger transport vehicles (taxis and autorickshaws) have increased considerably in these metropolises and other lower order towns. Share of mass transport modes in total trips in Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Chennai and Bangalore were 63%, 67%, 54%, 55% and 70%, respectively, in the late eighties or early nineties. In Lucknow, cycling and walking accounted for 55% of the total trips (Habitat, 1994; CSE, 1996). These trends indicate that the rapid growth in vehicle population expected as a result of urbanisation will be dominated by personalised vehicles. This pattern is not sustainable as personalised vehicles are

Description Number of urban areas/towns Urban population (millions) % of Urban population Decennial growth rate of urban population (%) % Urban population in Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI

1971 2590 109.1 19.9 38.2 57.2 10.9 16.0 10.9 4.5 0.4

1981 3378 159.5 23.3 46.1 60.4 11.6 14.3 9.5 3.6 0.5

1991 3768 217.2 25.7 36.2 65.2 10.9 13.2 7.8 2.6 0.3

Note: Class I towns (called cities) have a population of 1 000 000 and above; Class II: 50 000 to 99 999; Class III: 20 000 to 49 999; Class IV: 10 000 to 19 999; Class V: 5000 to 9999; and Class VI: less than 5000. Source: Census of India (1991).

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Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

Table 4 Trends in the growth of metropolitan cities in India Number of metropolitan cities Average population in millions Share (%) of population of metropolitan cities in

Total population 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 5 7 9 12 23 2.35 2.59 3.09 3.51 3.07 3.25 4.12 5.08 6.16 8.37

Urban population 18.81 22.93 25.51 26.41 32.54

Source: Census of India (1991).

Figure 3 Population growth of the top and bottom ve metropolitan cities in India. Source: Census of India (1991)

inefcient users of energy, and inict a number of externalities such as pollution and congestion.

Further discussion
The disproportionate growth of personalised vehicles in Indian cities has many implications: severe road congestion, reduction in speed, increase in accidents, increased energy consumption, and emission of local and global pollutants (CSE, 1998). Growth of the road network in Indian cities has not kept pace with the growth of urban population and vehicles. A look at data on mobility and congestion indicators for selected Indian cities reveals that, in general, per capita road length decreases as the size of the city increases, and that there is a general decrease in the ratio of road length to area as the city size increases. The situation was much worse in the nineties than in the eighties. Further details on the
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mobility and congestion levels in Indian cities are discussed by Ramanathan (1999c). This inadequacy of the urban road network will be compounded by the expected rapid increase in the number of vehicles in India in future, most of which will ply on the urban roads, due to delicensing of the industry and the consequent increase in production capacities. The average speed of vehicles has reduced in Indian cities (eg, for Mumbai, it reduced from 38 km h1 in 1962 to 26 km h1 in 1979 and to 1520 km h1 in 1993 94). The congestion problem in many cities is compounded by the fact that there is no separate lane for slow-moving vehicles and animals. The rapid growth of personalised vehicles is very unsustainable and results in avoidable energy consumption and pollution. Energy consumption due to transport in Indian cities has been growing rapidly (CSE, 1996). The share of automobiles in total pollutant emissions is quite high. According to the World

Link between population and number of vehicles: R Ramanathan

Resources Report (199697), motor vehicles were responsible for 90% of the carbon monoxide emissions, 85% of hydrocarbon emissions, 59% of NOx emissions, 13% of SO2 emissions and 37% of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) emissions in Delhi during 1987. Automobiles are also responsible for signicant number of accidents and loss of human life. Several strategies are available to overcome urban transport problems, including integrated planning of land use and transport, full cost pricing, privatisation, promoting environmentally friendly modes of transport, and using appropriate technologies. A more detailed discussion of these strategies is available elsewhere (Parikh and Ramanathan, 1997; Ramanathan, 1999c; Ramanathan and Parikh, 1999).

endly. This unsustainable urban transport trend has already led to excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution in Indian cities, and is likely to worsen further. Some strategies to overcome these problems have been identied in the paper.

References
Census of India (1991) Census Data. Government of India, New Delhi. CSE (1996) Slow Murder: The Deadly Story of Vehicular Pollution in India. Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. CSE (1998) Small towns big mess. Down To Earth 7(13) 2936 (30 November). Habitat (1994) Improvement of Urban Public Transport in Developing Countries. United Nations Centre for Human Settlements, Nairobi. Ministry of Surface Transport (1995) Motor Transport Statistics of India, 199194, Government of India, New Delhi. MoUD (1987) Report of the Study Group on Alternative Systems of Urban Transport. Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, New Delhi. Parikh, K S and Ramanathan, R (1997) Recent reforms in infrastructure with special reference to Indian railways: an analysis. In Indian Planning: Search for Change, ed H Bhaya, pp 165 192. Asian Institute of Transport Development, New Delhi. Ramanathan, R (1996) Indian transport sector: energy and environmental implications. Energy Sources 18(7), 791805. Ramanathan, R (1997) Transport: a crucial infrastructure. In India Development Report 1997, ed K S Parikh, pp 219238. Oxford University Press, New Delhi. Ramanathan, R (1999a) The long-run behaviour of transport performance in India: a cointegration approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice (in press). Ramanathan, R (1999b) Short and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques. Energy Economics 21, 321330. Ramanathan, R (1999c) Urban transport. In India Development Report 1999, ed K S Parikh. Oxford University Press, New Delhi, pp 98112. Ramanathan, R and Parikh, J K (1999) Transport sector in India: an analysis in the context of sustainable development. Transport Policy 6(1), 3545. World Resources Report (199697) World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment The Urban Environment. Oxford University Press, New York.

Summary and conclusions

The crucial link between growth in the number of vehicles in cities and population has been studied in this paper. Using data from Indian cities, it has been established in this paper that the number of vehicles in towns could follow an S-shaped pattern as the town population increases; the number of vehicles will rise slowly when population is small, but will grow rapidly as population increases, and reach a saturation phase as the population reaches larger levels. It has been pointed out that such a pattern of growth has serious implications for India because several small towns in India are growing fast, and this will lead to a rapid increase in the number of vehicles in these towns. Also, the growth of road infrastructure has not been in tune with the growth of vehicles in Indian cities, leading to congestion and a reduction of average speeds. The growth in the number of vehicles is mainly dominated by personalised modes of travel that are not energy-efcient and environment-fri-

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