CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Tuesday, February 14, 2012 6:30 pm (ET)

The Republican Race: Santorum Has the Edge; Romney Still Seen as Most Electable February 8-13, 2012 Nationally, Rick Santorum has pulled just ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primary voters preference for the Republican presidential nomination. Ron Paul is now in third, followed by Newt Gingrich. At 3 points, Santorums lead is within the polls margin of error. Voters search for values and moral character have helped to propel Santorum to the head of the pack. When asked which candidate best represents their values, Santorum leads. But Romney continues to be viewed as the candidate best able to defeat President Obama. Republican voters have confidence in both Santorum and Romney to manage the economy.

After wins in three contests last week, 30% of Republican primary voters now support Santorum for the nomination. He received the backing of just 16% in a slightly different question last month, and was in third place behind Gingrich. Romney, who won the Maine caucuses on Saturday, has held fairly steady since January, while Gingrichs support has fallen by 11 points. He is now in fourth place behind Paul. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 1/2012 Rick Santorum 30% 16% Mitt Romney 27 28 Ron Paul 12 15 Newt Gingrich 10 21 Santorum receives strong backing from conservatives, Tea Partiers and white evangelicals. Self-identified conservatives divided their support among the candidates in January, but in this poll they are solidly behind Santorum. He receives far more support from this group than Romney does, and conservative support for Santorum has increased since last month. Support for Gingrich among conservatives is now half of what it was in January, just before his victory in the South Carolina primary. Romney leads among moderates and Republican primary voters who do not support the Tea Party.

Conservatives Moderates Tea party Non-Tea party W. Evangelicals

2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Santorum Romney Paul 38% 24 5 19% 30 23 36% 22% 39% 24 28 23 12 15 10

Gingrich 12 7 14 8 11

Still, 60% of Republican primary voters say they could change their minds about whom to support and so the race remains fluid. Mind Made Up Whom to Support? (among Republican primary voters with a choice) Yes 39% Too early 60 Most Republican primary voters remain unsatisfied with the current field. 62% wish there were more candidate choices. Satisfied with Republican Candidates for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 1/2012 Yes, satisfied 34% 30% No, want more choices 62 68 Also, more than half of Republican voters who pick a candidate have reservations about their candidate choice. Candidate Qualities

Mitt Romney continues to be viewed as the candidate who has the best chance to beat President Obama in the fall, but Rick Santorum is seen as the candidate who best represents the values of Republican voters. Santorum also leads as the candidate who would do the most to help the middle class. Candidate Qualities (among Republican primary voters) Beat Represents Obama Values 14% 39% 55 23 15 7 3 16

Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul

Most to help Middle Class 32% 19 18 18

Each of the Republican candidates is portraying himself as a stark contrast to Barack Obama, but just 36% of Republican primary voters think Mitt Romneys policies would be very different

from President Obamas. Six in ten Republican voters say Santorum and Pauls policies would be very different than the Presidents. 55% say that about Gingrich. Candidates Policies Different than Obamas? (among Republican primary voters) Very Somewhat Not Very Different Different Different 61% 27 4 59% 30 4 55% 26 14 36% 48 14

Paul Santorum Gingrich Romney

Moreover, while a majority of primary voters think Mitt Romneys ideological views on the issues are about right, 32% say they are not conservative enough, the largest percentage among any of the four Republican candidates. Republican primary voters are most likely to think Rick Santorums views on the issues are about right 68% say thats the case. His Views on Most Issues are (among Republican primary voters) Too Not conservative conservative enough Rick Santorum 14% 7 Newt Gingrich 17% 21 Mitt Romney 10% 32 Ron Paul 18% 22

About right 68 55 52 46

The economy and jobs are the issues Republican primary voters want to hear the candidates discuss, and most are very or somewhat confident in the ability of Mitt Romney (73%) or Rick Santorum (74%) to manage the economy. 66% are confident in Newt Gingrich, and 59% have confidence in Ron Paul. Confidence in His Ability to Manage Economy (among Republican primary voters) Very ` Somewhat Not too/not at all Rick Santorum 27% 47 20 Mitt Romney 25% 48 24 Newt Gingrich 24% 42 31 Ron Paul 17% 42 33 Republican primary voters nationwide say strong moral character is the top quality (from a list of four) in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination, followed by a true conservative, having the right experience, and someone who can defeat President Obama, Voters looking for strong moral character and a true conservative back Santorum, while those who value experience are more likely to support Romney. The race is close among those who say electability is most important.

Most Important Candidate Quality (among Republican primary voters) Strong moral character 34% True conservative 22 Right experience 22 Can defeat Obama 19 The Nomination Process No Republican candidate has accumulated anywhere near the number of delegates needed to clinch the partys nomination, and most Republican voters nationwide express concern about having a long nomination contest. 57% say critical statements made by the candidates during a long contest will hurt the partys nominee in November. A third says a long nomination contest would help because the Republican nominee would be tested and better prepared for the general election. Impact of Long Nomination Contest on Republican Nominee (among Republican primary voters) Help 35% Hurt 57 In 2010, the Tea Party movement helped the Republicans capture control of the House of Representatives, and 49% of Republican primary voters think the movement has had the right amount of influence on the Republican nomination so far. The remainder is divided as to whether the Tea Partys influence has been too much or too little. Among Republican primary voters who consider themselves Tea Party supporters, two-thirds think the movements influence has been about right. Tea Party Influence on Republican Nomination (among Republican primary voters) All Tea Party Non-Tea Party Too much 21% 5% 41% Too little 21 27 18 About right 49 65 33 Still, many Republican primary voters are concerned about the direction in which their party is heading. 49% now think their party is headed in the right direction, while 38% think it is on the wrong track. Republicans View of the Republican Party (among Republican primary voters) Right direction 49% Wrong track 38
_________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from February 8-13, 2012 among 1,197 adults nationwide. 1,064 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 331 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Race for the Republican Nomination February 8-13, 2012 q1-11 SEPARATE RELEASE q12 Is the Republican Party headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 26 55 10 17 60 31 79 67 14 14 11 16

Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA q13 SEPARATE RELEASE

Rep. Primary Voters % 49 38 13

attn How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? A lot Some Not much None DK/NA 35 44 14 6 1 36 49 10 5 0 31 46 16 7 0 39 38 15 7 1 47 41 11 1 0

q14 Are you generally satisfied with the candidates now running for the Republican nomination for President, or do you wish there were more choices? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 34 62 4 Jan12b % 30 68 2

Satisfied More choices DK/NA

q15 Who would you like to see the Republican party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 30 27 12 10 6 12 3 Jan12b* % 16 28 15 21 3 6 1

Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Newt Gingrich Someone Else (vol.) Undecided (Vol.) DK/NA

*Wording: If you had to choose, which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

q16 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE * 39 60 1

Mind made up Still too early DK/NA

q17 Which of these best describes your preference for the Republican nomination for President in 2012: 1) I strongly favor my candidate, 2) I like my candidate but with reservations, or 3) I dislike the other candidates? Strongly favor Like with reservations Dislike others DK/NA 26 53 17 4 Newt

q18 Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for President Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * 28 10 23 27 1 2 5 4

Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Someone Else Undecided (Vol.) No/No one DK/NA

q19 Compared to past Presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 Presidential election - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 31 37 33 24 28 20 23 37 39 41 42 35 2 2 2 4

More Less Same Don't know/No answer q20-30 SEPARATE RELEASE

Rep. Prim. Voters % 38 19 41 2

Jan12b % 25 27 47 1

q31 Which one of these candidate qualities is most important in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination? 1. He is a true conservative, 2. He has strong moral character, 3. He can defeat Barack Obama, or 4. He has the right experience? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * A true conservative 22 Has strong moral character 34 Can defeat Barack Obama 19 Has the right experience 22 DK/NA 3

q32 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012 -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % 55 15 14 3 na 1 3 9 Jan12B# % 56 17 5 4 7 2 2 7

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Rick Perry All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA

#Includes Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry

q33 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think most represents the values you try to live by--Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Ron Paul Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Jon Huntsman All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA 39 23 16 7 na na 0 3 12 25 20 18 16 6 3 -2 10

#Includes Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry

q34 Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think would do the most to help middle-class Americans? -- Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul All of them (Vol.) None of them (Vol.) DK/NA 32 19 18 18 1 3 9

q35 If he were elected president, do you think Ron Paul's policies would be very different from President Obama's policies, somewhat different, or not very different from President Obama's policies? Very different Somewhat different Not very different DK/NA 61 27 4 8

q36 If he were elected president, do you think Mitt Romney's policies would be very different from President Obama's policies, somewhat different, or not very different from President Obama's policies? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS * % Very different 36 Somewhat different 48 Not very different 14 DK/NA 2 q37 If he were elected president, do you think Newt Gingrich's policies would be very different from President Obama's policies, somewhat different, or not very different from President Obama's policies? Very different Somewhat different Not very different DK/NA 55 26 14 5

q38 If he were elected president, do you think Rick Santorum's policies would be very different from President Obama's policies, somewhat different, or not very different from President Obama's policies? Very different Somewhat different Not very different DK/NA 59 30 4 7

q39 Which of the following matters more to you in deciding which presidential candidate to support -- the candidate's views on economic issues or the candidate's views on social issues? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 66 69 65 64 22 21 24 21 9 8 10 10 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 4

Economic issues Social issues Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) DK/NA

Rep. Prim. Voters % 70 17 10 0 3

Jan12b % 70 19 8 1 2

q40 Do you think the Tea Party movement has too much influence, too little influence, or the right amount of influence in the Republican Presidential nomination so far? Sep11a 35 11 33 21

Too much influence Too little influence Right amount of influence DK/NA q41 SEPARATE RELEASE

41 17 26 16

20 21 45 14

61 9 13 17

40 19 23 18

21 21 49 9

q42 Which comes closer to your opinion? 1. A long nomination contest will help the Republicans in November, because the nominee will have been tested and better prepared for the general election, or 2. A long nomination contest will hurt the Republicans in November, because the Republican candidates have been making critical statements about each other that will weaken them for the general election. ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 24 30 14 30 67 61 77 63 2 3 1 1 7 6 8 6

Help Hurt No Effect (vol.) DK/NA q43-48 SEPARATE RELEASE

Rep. Prim. Voters % 35 57 2 6

q49 How confident are you in Newt Gingrich's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA q50 SEPARATE RELEASE q51 Do you think Newt Gingrichs views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA q52-q53 SEPARATE RELEASE q54 How confident are you in Ron Paul's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA q55 SEPARATE RELEASE q56 Do you think Ron Pauls views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA 28 15 36 21 13 19 49 19 48 13 19 20 23 13 41 23 18 22 46 14 11 31 24 22 12 18 41 21 11 9 2 19 27 39 13 13 33 23 17 14 17 42 22 11 8 39 17 29 15 12 25 54 9 62 13 10 15 39 14 28 19 17 21 55 7 11 24 20 39 6 24 44 13 15 4 1 12 22 58 7 8 20 24 42 6 24 42 13 18 3

q57-q58 SEPARATE RELEASE q59 How confident are you in Mitt Romney's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 12 26 1 11 31 47 18 30 21 15 24 23 29 8 49 27 7 4 8 9

Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA q60 SEPARATE RELEASE

Rep. Prim. Voters % 25 48 15 9 3

q61 Do you think Mitt Romneys views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA q62-q63 SEPARATE RELEASE q64 How confident are you in Rick Santorum's ability to make the right decisions about the economy - are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident DK/NA q65 SEPARATE RELEASE q66 Do you think Rick Santorums views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right? Too conservative Not conservative enough About right DK/NA 33 9 35 23 12 5 67 16 50 11 14 25 34 11 29 26 14 7 68 11 11 29 20 25 15 26 41 14 8 11 0 16 25 41 18 9 29 20 24 18 27 47 11 9 6 32 21 32 15 8 30 52 10 55 13 15 17 31 20 32 17 10 32 52 6

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Total Respondents Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters Reg. Voters Republicans Reg. Voters Democrats Reg. Voters Independents Republican primary voters

UNWEIGHTED 1197 332 413 452 1064 316 368 380 331

WEIGHTED

322 (27%) 406 (34%) 469 (39%)

295 (30%) 335 (34%) 368 (36%) 289

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