MEMORANDUM

TO: RE:

FROM: DATE:

Interested Parties Global Strategy Group Joe Donnelly for U.S. Senate 12.16.11

Donnelly Well-Positioned To Win, Regardless of Opponent

Views on Economic and Social Issues, Support of Tax Credits Perfect Match for Indiana Voters
Joe Donnelly is well positioned to win next years contest for U.S. Senate, regardless of whether he faces long-time incumbent Republican Richard Lugar or his Tea Party-backed challenger Richard Mourdock, 1 according to recent public polling as well as a survey conducted by Global Strategy Group. Even surveys conducted on behalf of the Lugar campaign and by Club for Growth in support of Mourdock show the incumbent Senator to be vulnerable in the primary race, and non-partisan election watchers have the race on their watch lists as one of the closest primary matchups of the cycle. Key findings include: Lugar sits below the 50% mark: A Basswood Research poll, conducted on behalf of the Club for Growth from July 23-24, shows Mourdock leading Lugar by 2-points, 34% to 32%, in a Republican primary with one-third of voters undecided. Lugars campaign cast doubts on the Club for Growth survey, alleging that it used push polling and responded by releasing a poll of their own, conducted by American Viewpoint from July 27-28. That poll shows Lugar with a 14-point lead (45% to 31%), but well-below the 50% mark, marking a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent. A WISH-TV/Franklin College poll of likely Republican voters in Marion County (Lugars base), conducted from October 29-31, likewise shows Lugar failing to reach the 50% mark needed to keep him in office, a tenuous position for the former Mayor of Indianapolis to be in. Reliable Republican primary voters are lukewarm toward Lugar: If the Republican nomination is sealed by the time Indianas May primary rolls around, low turnout may prove a significant factor and a real challenge for Lugar. Lugars success is largely dependent on a higher primary turnout, where the ideological bent of the voters is more mixed. In a low turnout election, Tea Party voters, who favor Mourdock, would dominate the primary. Our own polling shows that among Republicans who have voted in each of the last two statewide primary elections those most likely to vote in a low turnout election the 2012 Republican Senate primary is a dead heat with Mourdock leading Lugar 42%-41%. And among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative, views of Lugar are evenly split with only 48% giving him a favorable rating and 46% unfavorable.

Global Strategy Group conducted a poll of 807 likely voters and 383 likely Republican primary voters between October 20 and 25, 2011. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level for the sample of 807 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level for the sample of 383 likely Republican primary voters is +/-5.0%.
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Non-Partisan election analysis have the Republican primary race on their watch lists: Jennifer Duffy, Senior Editor for the non-partisan Cook Political Report writes, There is no doubt that the primary will be hard fought and there is no guarantee that Lugar can prevail[Mourdock beating Lugar in the primary] may well come to pass. Similarly, Stu Rothenberg, publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report writes, Given the direction of the GOP these days and the publics continued desire of change, it would be a stunning achievement if Lugar were to win renomination next year. If Lugar does make it out of the primary, his recent votes and positions are serious liabilities among General Election voters: Lugar receives a positive job performance from only 42% of Indiana voters. Half of voters have serious doubts about Lugar based on his support for the Republican Medicare plan and more than three-fourths have some doubts about him due to that vote. Similar percentages have doubts about him based on his recent history on trade and jobs by far voters top concern. Though he has a strong opportunity to win the Republican nomination, Mourdock faces an uphill battle in the General Election: After hearing the positive profiles of both Republicans (and Donnelly), likely Republican primary voters favored Mourdock over Lugar, 48% to 44%. Tea Party backing is a substantial advantage for Mourdock among these Republican primary voters they give the movement a 70% favorability rating. But even if Mourdock is successful in his primary challenge, he will be at a decided disadvantage against Donnelly. In addition to the fact that Donnelly has a 7-point lead over Mourdock after voters hear positive profiles of the two candidates, Mourdocks lawsuit to prevent the federal bailout of Chrysler is a tremendous electoral liability. Just 37% of Indiana voters agree with Mourdock, not surprising given that the auto industry supports more than 100,000 jobs in the state. As voters learn about Donnelly, his vote grows substantially: Following brief positive profiles of Donnelly and both Republicans, Donnelly pulls into a statistical dead heat with Lugar and leads Mourdock by 7-points. Independents in the state are more closely aligned with Democrats: Among pure Independent voters those who do not lean toward either party President Obama receives a 55% favorable rating and leads Mitt Romney by 9-points.

The bottom line is this: If Lugar survives the primary, he will start his General Election campaign in a position of weakness. (It is difficult to imagine that the primary campaign will improve his already soft job ratings, given the volume of negative advertising Mourdock and his allies are likely to use against Lugar.) If Mourdock is successful in winning the Republican nomination, he is likely to alienate the center of the general electorate in the process, which will only help to bolster Donnellys existing lead over Mourdock in a General Election match up. No matter how you slice it, Joe Donnelly is well positioned to win the race for U.S. Senate.