PPP Release Como 205

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312
February 5, 2012
IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE
Close race in Minnesota, Romney up in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. Last night's results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP's first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days. In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul. Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul. What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it's much more abrupt. We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he's dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast. Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney. Santorum's personal likability- perhaps driven by the fact that no one has felt the need to attack him- has a lot to do with why he's doing so well in these states. In Colorado 68% of voters see him favorably to 21% with a negative opinion. That +47 spread is far better than that of the second most popular candidate, Romney, who's at +29 (60/31). It's a similar story in Minnesota. Santorum's favorability is even better there at +54 (72/18), with Romney next best at +11 (50/39).
Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
There were 3 key groups of voters that fueled Gingrich's victory in South Carolina and that continued to be strong for him in Florida, but in both Colorado and Minnesota they have shifted toward Santorum. Santorum is winning Tea Party voters (35-34 over Romney in Colorado, 38-29 over Gingrich in Minnesota), Evangelicals (37-30 over Romney in Colorado, 36-27 over Gingrich in Minnesota), and those describing themselves as 'very conservative' (38-29 over Romney in Colorado, 41-25 over Gingrich in Minnesota). Win those groups and you're always going to have a decent chance in a Republican contest. Minnesota provides Paul's best chance at a victory since Iowa. Independents are allowed to vote there, which should boost his numbers, and in contrast to most states he has a positive favorability rating at 48-41. A big key for him will be the age of the electoratehe's leading the way with voters under 45, but in last place with voters over 45. He'll need to pick that up to have a chance at the upset. The state of the race is extremely volatile in both states. 33% of voters in Colorado and 37% in Minnesota say they could change their minds between now and Tuesday, a much higher rate than we've seen willing to shift this late in other states. One big advantage Romney has is that his voters are more committed than those of the other candidates. In Colorado among voters whose minds are completely made up he's at 45% to 25% for Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 13% for Paul. And in Minnesota although he's in 2nd place overall, he's first with folks whose votes are locked in at 29% to 25% for Santorum, 24% for Gingrich, and 22% for Paul. People who know definitively how they're going to vote seem more likely to show up so that bodes quite well for Romney. Romney looks headed for another easy win in Colorado and could pull one out in Minnesota as well. He has a few key things going for him. He remains extremely formidable with seniors, leading Santorum 43-23 with them in Colorado and 42-28 with them in Minnesota. And although he continues to struggle with the furthest right segment of Republican voters he's now firmly established himself as the candidate of choice for those describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative.' He leads Santorum 51-19 with those folks in Colorado and Gingrich 34-23 with then in Minnesota. Tuesday has the potential to be a huge day for both Romney and Santorum, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. A sweep for Romney would do much to enhance the feeling that he's unstoppable. Wins for Santorum in Minnesota and Missouri would make it clear he's a more viable alternative to Romney than Gingrich and give him a lot of momentum for the road ahead. And it looks like it will be another dark day for Gingrich, whose campaign it appears peaked two weeks ago in South Carolina. PPP surveyed 527 likely Republican caucus voters in Colorado with a margin of error of +/-4.3% and 410 likely Republican caucus voters in Minnesota with a margin of error of +/-4.8% on February 4th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com
Colorado Survey Results

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure? 100% Republican caucus..........................................
Democratic caucus ......................................... 0% Not sure .......................................................... 0%
Q6
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul?

Favorable........................................................ 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 9%
Q2
If the Republican candidates for President were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 18% Ron Paul ......................................................... 12% Mitt Romney.................................................... 40% Rick Santorum ................................................ 26% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 3%
Q7
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Q8
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum?

Q3
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 67% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 33%
Q9
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 53% Man................................................................. 47%
Q4
Who would be your second choice for President?

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 14% 30 to 45........................................................... 26% 46 to 65........................................................... 35% Older than 65 .................................................. 25%
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 1% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 5% Moderate......................................................... 12% Somewhat conservative.................................. 35% Very conservative ........................................... 47%
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 Survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
February 4, 2012
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

Yes.................................................................. 34% No ................................................................... 53% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q14 Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 19% Ron Paul ......................................................... 7% Mitt Romney.................................................... 51% Rick Santorum ................................................ 11% Someone else/Not sure ................................. 13%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are an Evangelical .......................................... 46% Are not ............................................................ 54%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting Base to that candidate som eone else 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 13% Mitt Rom ney 41% Rick Santorum 27% 18% 13% 45% 25% 20% 13% 35% 32%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
8% 46% 46% -
26% 53% 22% -
30% 14% 55% -
34% 10% 56% -
12% 21% 40% 16% 11%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 35% 6% 29% 29% 2% 1% 20% 55% 22% 3% 8% 14% 35% 34% 9% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure
17% 30% 36% 16% 2%
19% 1% 43% 34% 2%
17% 1% 41% 29% 12%
February 4, 2012
survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 13% 6% 61% 19% 1% 25% 26% 4% 40% 5% 29% 9% 27% 28% 8% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure
18% 8% 36% 38% 1%
21% 27% 47% 6%
15% 15% 54% 7% 10%
Gender Base Wom an 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 19% 9% 39% 29% 4% 17% 16% 41% 24% 1% Man
Age Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 19% 17% 39% 22% 3% 14% 14% 37% 31% 5% 18% 12% 41% 27% 1% 22% 9% 43% 23% 4% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 11% 66% 23% 22% 30% 31% 10% 7% 5% 16% 58% 14% 6% 16% 12% 51% 19% 3% 23% 8% 29% 38% 2%
Tea Party ID Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 18% 11% 34% 35% 1% 18% 13% 47% 19% 3% 20% 11% 28% 33% 8% Yes Not No sure
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 20% 9% 30% 37% 4% 17% 15% 49% 17% 2% Are not
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 18% Ron Paul 12% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 26% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 70% 3% 3% 22% 2% 2% 92% 2% 4% 6% 6% 74% 14% 1% 3% 3% 1% 93% 13% 16% 14% 39% 18% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 65% 35% 67% 33% 73% 27% 61% 39% Ron Mitt Rick Paul Rom ney Santorum
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 15% 26% 42% 18% 15% 18% 18% 48% 28% 14% 32% 27% 42% 9% 32% 17% 100% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 93% 2% 4% 23% 65% 12% 35% 56% 9% 53% 34% 14% 35% 34% 32% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
36% 55% 9%
93% 6% 1%
34% 56% 10%
23% 66% 10%
24% 40% 36%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 42% 43% 15% 28% 65% 7% 91% 3% 6% 43% 47% 10% 28% 47% 25% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 67% 24% 9% 42% 45% 14% 60% 24% 15% 97% 3% 25% 39% 36% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 55% 45% 37% 63% 52% 48% 58% 42% 77% 23% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
15% 19% 36% 30%
19% 29% 34% 18%
14% 24% 35% 27%
12% 30% 36% 21%
13% 42% 16% 29%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 6% 3% 31% 59% 8% 12% 16% 33% 31% 1% 4% 17% 45% 33% 2% 6% 25% 67% 11% 24% 29% 36% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
34% 51% 15%
31% 58% 12%
29% 62% 9%
45% 38% 17%
16% 48% 36%
Moderate 12% Som ew hat 35% conservative Very conservative 47%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 50% 50% 35% 65% 34% 66% 65% 35% 59% 41% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
72% 1% 16% 2% 10%
5% 53% 24% 3% 16%
2% 0% 93% 0% 5%
16% 1% 26% 38% 19%
11% 15% 75%
Mitt Rom ney 51% Rick Santorum 11% Som eone else/Not 13% sure
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 100% 100% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 25% Ron Paul 11% Mitt Rom ney 16% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 25% sure 22% 11% 11% 24% 32% 31% 11% 26% 21% 11% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 43% 49% 9% 63% 25% 12% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else Paul Favorability Favorable 39% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9% Base
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
37% 55% 8%
43% 47% 10%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 61% Unfavorable 30% Not sure 9% 60% 34% 6% 63% 23% 15% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Santorum Favorability Favorable 69% Unfavorable 20% Not sure 11% Base
66% 24% 10%
77% 11% 12%
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Gender Wom an 52% Man 48% 51% 49% 55% 45% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 36% Older than 65 25% Base
14% 26% 34% 26%
15% 24% 38% 23%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 5% 1% 5% 12% 37% 45% 3% 3% 11% 32% 51% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Tea Party ID Yes 35% No 53% Not sure 13% 32% 54% 13% 39% 49% 12% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 45% Are not 55% 43% 57% 50% 50% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7% Base
18% 8% 49% 14% 11%
21% 5% 57% 4% 12%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 60% 40% 68% 32% 46% 54% 70% 30% 86% 14% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
100% -
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 79% 13% 8% 30% 58% 13% 57% 35% 8% 53% 41% 6% 22% 61% 17% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
27% 61% 11%
78% 14% 8%
35% 58% 7%
34% 59% 7%
39% 49% 12%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 58% 33% 9% 71% 26% 3% 76% 15% 10% 57% 32% 11% 50% 39% 11% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11%
79% 10% 11%
58% 31% 11%
82% 11% 7%
87% 10% 3%
39% 40% 21%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 46% 54% 50% 50% 60% 40% 54% 46% 55% 45% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
18% 27% 30% 26%
19% 37% 26% 18%
8% 25% 39% 29%
12% 18% 43% 26%
14% 28% 34% 24%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 2% 9% 42% 47% 9% 26% 42% 24% 4% 3% 6% 26% 62% 1% 4% 10% 34% 52% 3% 8% 15% 33% 42% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
44% 45% 11%
21% 66% 13%
43% 46% 11%
35% 50% 15%
25% 60% 15%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 49% 51% 36% 64% 55% 45% 47% 53% 40% 60% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
17% 1% 49% 18% 16%
23% 6% 60% 9% 3%
23% 6% 46% 16% 9%
26% 3% 62% 2% 7%
10% 16% 42% 10% 21%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 58% 42% 80% 20% 61% 39%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 39% 6% 18% 24% 12% 8% 15% 13% 23% 41% 18% 13% 12% 13% 45%
Gingrich Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 100% 100% 100% Not sure
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9% 33% 61% 6% 46% 49% 6% 38% 24% 38%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 61% 32% 7% 63% 31% 6% 39% 25% 36%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 79% 12% 9% 57% 34% 9% 60% 8% 32%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 51% 49% 52% 48% 66% 34%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure
14% 24% 36% 25%
14% 27% 35% 23%
11% 31% 27% 31%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 0% 3% 5% 39% 53% 3% 6% 19% 32% 40% 1% 9% 17% 30% 43% Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
44% 43% 13%
25% 66% 8%
21% 46% 33%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 49% 51% 38% 62% 58% 42% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
36% 1% 41% 11% 11%
1% 13% 65% 10% 12%
6% 9% 41% 16% 28%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 64% 36% 71% 29% 61% 39% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
17% 21% 14% 20% 28%
28% 3% 17% 26% 26%
29% 8% 11% 17% 35%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 41% 48% 10% 57% 38% 5% 33% 24% 42%
Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
Paul Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 60% 35% 6% 61% 30% 8% 49% 19% 32% Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11%
64% 25% 11%
74% 20% 6%
50% 7% 43%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 49% 51% 55% 45% 59% 41% Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
14% 33% 34% 19%
14% 21% 37% 28%
12% 27% 30% 31%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 7% 17% 37% 38% 2% 4% 8% 33% 54% 1% 15% 42% 42% Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
32% 56% 13%
39% 51% 10%
17% 48% 35%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 39% 61% 50% 50% 45% 55% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
15% 17% 51% 5% 12%
22% 1% 52% 16% 10%
16% 46% 4% 34%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 66% 34% 76% 24% 47% 53% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure
23% 12% 20% 21% 23%
26% 9% 7% 23% 35%
23% 3% 16% 27% 31%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 50% 43% 7% 50% 41% 8% 36% 24% 40% Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
39% 54% 8%
43% 51% 6%
23% 45% 32%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 100% 100% 100% Not sure
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 70% 20% 10% 66% 27% 8% 64% 5% 31%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 52% 48% 53% 47% 59% 41% Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
14% 24% 36% 27%
15% 29% 36% 20%
12% 30% 28% 29%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 5% 13% 41% 39% 3% 5% 11% 26% 56% 3% 7% 29% 61% Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
34% 55% 11%
37% 49% 14%
22% 52% 26%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 40% 60% 52% 48% 57% 43% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
12% 2% 74% 5% 7%
30% 18% 10% 23% 20%
22% 4% 38% 10% 26%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 64% 36% 82% 18% 63% 37% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
28% 9% 18% 29% 16%
12% 15% 9% 11% 54%
23% 10% 9% 7% 50%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 57% 34% 9% 29% 67% 4% 39% 31% 30% Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
36% 57% 7%
47% 50% 3%
36% 29% 36%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 61% 30% 9% 58% 40% 2% 53% 21% 26%
Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11%
Santorum Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 54% 46% 46% 54% 58% 42% Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
13% 25% 38% 25%
17% 28% 28% 27%
17% 31% 28% 24%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 0% 3% 8% 34% 54% 5% 12% 22% 35% 27% 1% 4% 15% 43% 37% Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
40% 48% 12%
22% 67% 10%
20% 54% 26%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 50% 50% 31% 69% 48% 52% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
20% 2% 50% 15% 12%
18% 20% 48% 13%
11% 10% 58% 1% 19%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 66% 34% 69% 31% Man
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
Gender Base Wom an Man
21% 10% 17% 23% 29%
28% 11% 13% 22% 26%
Gender Base Wom an Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 47% 40% 13% 51% 41% 8% Man Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
35% 54% 10%
42% 50% 8%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 58% 31% 11% 61% 31% 8% Man
70% 18% 12%
66% 24% 10%
Gender Base Wom an Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 100% 100% Man
Gender Base Wom an Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25% 18% 24% 33% 25% 10% 28% 37% 25% Man
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 2% 4% 10% 37% 47% 1% 5% 14% 33% 47% Man Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
32% 52% 17%
37% 54% 10%
Gender Base Wom an Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 50% 50% 41% 59% Man Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
19% 6% 50% 11% 15%
18% 8% 51% 11% 11%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 66% 34% 69% 31% 65% 35% 70% 30% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 31% 14% 8% 19% 28% 25% 15% 15% 16% 30% 21% 8% 17% 28% 27% 25% 8% 18% 24% 27% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 50% 42% 8% 46% 42% 12% 51% 41% 8% 49% 38% 13% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9% Base
Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
39% 53% 8%
48% 42% 10%
37% 55% 8%
30% 59% 12%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 58% 33% 8% 54% 35% 11% 61% 32% 8% 64% 25% 11% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 61% 25% 14% 64% 22% 14% 74% 17% 9% 67% 22% 11% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 67% 33% 49% 51% 50% 50% 53% 47% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age 18 to 29 30 to 45 46 to Older 65 than 65
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 3% 8% 14% 28% 47% 6% 14% 41% 40% 2% 3% 10% 35% 50% 1% 4% 11% 35% 49% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13% Base
33% 47% 19%
23% 59% 17%
41% 50% 9%
35% 52% 13%
Age Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 33% 67% 47% 53% 47% 53% 49% 51% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7% Base
19% 8% 50% 8% 14%
14% 9% 49% 15% 14%
18% 7% 56% 9% 9%
24% 5% 45% 10% 17%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 34% 66% 79% 21% 69% 31% 71% 29% 64% 36%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 38% 11% 51% 9% 19% 10% 17% 45% 18% 22% 8% 18% 34% 29% 12% 11% 22% 26% 25% 5% 20% 25% 25%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 11% 80% 9% 32% 48% 20% 21% 65% 15% 54% 37% 9% 55% 35% 10% Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal
28% 72% -
56% 41% 3%
55% 33% 12%
40% 48% 11%
31% 60% 8%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 42% 58% 62% 32% 6% 66% 28% 6% 70% 22% 8% 50% 37% 12%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 20% 69% 11% 41% 51% 9% 48% 38% 14% 66% 20% 14% 79% 12% 9%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 62% 38% 48% 52% 45% 55% 56% 44% 53% 47%
27% 56% 17%
25% 34% 21% 21%
16% 30% 31% 23%
11% 30% 34% 25%
14% 22% 37% 26%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13% 27% 73% 25% 72% 3% 14% 77% 9% 27% 59% 14% 46% 39% 16%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 34% 66% 44% 56% 25% 75% 38% 62% 57% 43% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
11% 46% 23% 20%
33% 13% 47% 6%
5% 13% 62% 4% 15%
16% 6% 58% 5% 15%
23% 4% 44% 18% 11%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 63% 37% 70% 30% 70% 30% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 31% 6% 19% 23% 20% 21% 13% 13% 22% 32% 20% 10% 13% 25% 31% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 63% 30% 7% 40% 51% 9% 49% 25% 26% Yes Not No sure Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9% Base
Tea Party ID Yes Not No sure
36% 59% 5%
41% 51% 9%
36% 40% 24%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 60% 34% 6% 62% 29% 9% 49% 32% 18% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 80% 13% 7% 62% 26% 12% 62% 16% 22% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 49% 51% 52% 48% 66% 34% Yes Not No sure
14% 18% 42% 26%
13% 29% 33% 25%
20% 33% 22% 24%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 4% 5% 28% 63% 2% 7% 17% 40% 34% 1% 8% 37% 54% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13% Base
Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
Tea Party ID Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 56% 44% 39% 61% 48% 52% Yes Not No sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7% Base
24% 6% 48% 14% 8%
17% 7% 58% 7% 10%
14% 7% 27% 15% 37%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 64% 36% 70% 30% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure 26% 8% 19% 23% 24% 23% 12% 13% 22% 30% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 53% 34% 13% 46% 46% 8% Are not Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Are not
33% 57% 9%
43% 48% 10%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 53% 35% 12% 65% 27% 7% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11% 74% 14% 12% 63% 26% 11% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 58% 42% 49% 51% Are not
10% 27% 36% 27%
17% 25% 34% 24%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 5% 7% 30% 58% 2% 5% 16% 40% 37% Are not Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
41% 44% 14%
28% 59% 13%
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 100% 100% Are not Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
23% 6% 43% 17% 10%
15% 8% 57% 5% 15%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 67% to that candidate Might end up 33% supporting som eone else 63% 37% 79% 21% 64% 36% 87% 13% 64% 36% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 15% Rick Santorum 23% Som eone else/Not 28% sure
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
21% 13% 19% 31% 15%
5% 8% 14% 10% 63%
23% 12% 14% 28% 23%
40% 8% 23% 4% 25%
30% 2% 10% 12% 46%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 49% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% 95% 1% 3% 9% 78% 13% 40% 52% 9% 48% 36% 15% 41% 36% 23% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 38% Unfavorable 52% Not sure 9%
32% 60% 8%
94% 6% -
38% 53% 9%
18% 78% 4%
35% 41% 25%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 60% Unfavorable 31% Not sure 9% 39% 50% 11% 16% 78% 6% 87% 6% 7% 26% 65% 9% 33% 48% 19% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 68% Unfavorable 21% Not sure 11%
73% 20% 7%
23% 60% 17%
67% 20% 13%
98% 2%
62% 21% 17%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 53% Man 47% 53% 47% 44% 56% 52% 48% 52% 48% 60% 40% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Age 18 to 29 14% 30 to 45 26% 46 to 65 35% Older than 65 25%
15% 19% 35% 32%
17% 32% 35% 16%
14% 25% 39% 22%
11% 36% 29% 24%
15% 27% 26% 32%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 1% 5% 1% 9% 3% 30% 58% 10% 9% 23% 30% 29% 1% 4% 15% 40% 40% 5% 17% 78% 2% 2% 14% 42% 40% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 34% No 53% Not sure 13%
43% 47% 10%
30% 56% 14%
32% 60% 7%
45% 37% 18%
20% 42% 39%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 46% Are not 54% 57% 43% 38% 62% 39% 61% 74% 26% 37% 63% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 19% Ron Paul 7%
100% -
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012
Minnesota Survey Results

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure? 100% Republican caucus..........................................
Democratic caucus ......................................... 0% Not sure .......................................................... 0%
Q6
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul?

Q2
If the Republican candidates for President were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Q7
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Q8
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum?

Q3
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 63% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 37%
Q9
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 47% Man................................................................. 53%
Q4
Who would be your second choice for President?

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 10% 30 to 45........................................................... 25% 46 to 65........................................................... 40% Older than 65 .................................................. 25%
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 2% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4% Moderate......................................................... 16% Somewhat conservative.................................. 36% Very conservative ........................................... 41%
February 4, 2012
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

Yes.................................................................. 30% No ................................................................... 56% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q14 Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 24% Ron Paul ......................................................... 10% Mitt Romney.................................................... 39% Rick Santorum ................................................ 13% Someone else/Not sure ................................. 14%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are an Evangelical .......................................... 48% Are not ............................................................ 52%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting Base to that candidate som eone else 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 23% Ron Paul 20% Mitt Rom ney 28% Rick Santorum 30% 24% 22% 29% 25% 20% 17% 26% 38%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus
New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
12% 33% 56% -
28% 29% 43% -
35% 22% 42% -
36% 22% 42% -
14% 26% 28% 22% 10%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 43% 10% 17% 29% 1% 3% 27% 39% 30% 1% 6% 27% 28% 28% 12% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
17% 39% 19% 24% 1%
30% 0% 33% 34% 3%
13% 5% 38% 34% 10%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 15% 10% 48% 25% 2% 30% 32% 3% 33% 2% 25% 18% 17% 31% 9% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3%
21% 13% 25% 40% 2%
28% 42% 28% 2%
19% 27% 40% 2% 11%
Gender Base Wom an 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 21% 12% 31% 31% 5% 23% 26% 24% 27% 0% Man
Age Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 19% 38% 10% 33% 23% 30% 21% 25% 1% 25% 14% 25% 31% 5% 18% 9% 42% 28% 2% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 10% 34% 38% 18% 21% 32% 30% 17% 16% 30% 33% 18% 3% 23% 19% 34% 22% 2% 25% 13% 18% 41% 4%
Tea Party ID Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 29% 15% 16% 38% 1% 18% 23% 31% 24% 2% 21% 11% 32% 29% 7% Yes Not No sure
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 27% 11% 25% 36% 2% 18% 27% 29% 23% 4% Are not
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich 2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Gingrich 22% Ron Paul 19% Mitt Rom ney 27% Rick Santorum 29% Som eone else/Not sure 3% 68% 8% 6% 17% 1% 5% 85% 6% 4% 9% 12% 60% 18% 1% 2% 10% 89% 12% 19% 9% 44% 15% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 68% 32% 69% 31% 66% 34% 53% 47% Ron Mitt Rick Paul Rom ney Santorum
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 11% 31% 40% 17% 12% 22% 29% 37% 24% 10% 38% 28% 39% 13% 28% 20% 100% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 91% 5% 4% 25% 55% 20% 29% 56% 14% 46% 40% 14% 24% 16% 60% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
37% 56% 7%
96% 1% 3%
34% 51% 16%
39% 48% 13%
19% 38% 42%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 35% 53% 12% 25% 65% 10% 88% 5% 7% 44% 45% 12% 32% 31% 36% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 68% 23% 9% 47% 39% 14% 66% 18% 15% 99% 1% 42% 16% 42% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 44% 56% 30% 70% 53% 47% 51% 49% 92% 8% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
9% 26% 45% 21%
20% 39% 30% 12%
4% 20% 37% 39%
11% 22% 43% 24%
11% 68% 21%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 4% 11% 37% 46% 4% 7% 25% 37% 27% 3% 5% 19% 45% 27% 1% 3% 10% 28% 58% 16% 27% 58% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
40% 47% 13%
24% 68% 8%
18% 65% 16%
39% 47% 14%
16% 48% 36%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 59% 41% 28% 72% 44% 56% 60% 40% 32% 68% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
74% 2% 15% 1% 8%
11% 45% 25% 6% 14%
5% 2% 88% 5%
14% 2% 25% 38% 21%
7% 16% 77%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 100% 100% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 21% Ron Paul 9% 18% 10% 15% 29% 28% 25% 8% 28% 20% 19% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 40% Not sure 13% 47% 42% 11% 49% 36% 15% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 10% Base
52% 41% 7%
43% 42% 15%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 10% 47% 46% 7% 55% 29% 16% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Santorum Favorability Favorable 73% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 9% Base
72% 20% 8%
75% 14% 11%
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Gender Wom an 46% Man 54% 44% 56% 50% 50% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
12% 27% 36% 25%
8% 22% 45% 25%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 5% 3% 5% 16% 34% 42% 2% 4% 15% 40% 39% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 13% 30% 58% 12% 31% 53% 16% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 49% Are not 51% 51% 49% 46% 54% Strongly com m itted Might end up supporting to that candidate som eone else
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 25% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 40% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 12% sure Base
26% 14% 36% 14% 10%
22% 4% 46% 11% 16%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 55% 45% 66% 34% 48% 52% 72% 28% 72% 28% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
100% -
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 69% 15% 15% 43% 46% 10% 58% 33% 10% 46% 42% 12% 24% 56% 20% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
36% 51% 13%
72% 15% 13%
51% 43% 6%
49% 46% 4%
44% 37% 19%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 51% 43% 5% 24% 63% 13% 85% 7% 7% 46% 47% 7% 36% 44% 20% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10%
77% 17% 6%
62% 26% 12%
78% 20% 3%
90% 4% 6%
50% 28% 22%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 52% 48% 44% 56% 44% 56% 44% 56% 49% 51% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25%
7% 27% 38% 28%
16% 26% 43% 15%
10% 29% 44% 17%
6% 23% 42% 30%
14% 22% 36% 28%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 6% 10% 35% 47% 3% 6% 30% 18% 44% 1% 4% 13% 38% 45% 1% 3% 16% 41% 39% 5% 5% 17% 38% 35% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
33% 53% 14%
23% 64% 13%
41% 46% 13%
32% 60% 9%
21% 60% 20%
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 47% 53% 31% 69% 62% 38% 50% 50% 44% 56% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
27% 5% 33% 20% 14%
21% 11% 33% 28% 7%
21% 6% 56% 10% 6%
33% 10% 46% 5% 6%
16% 18% 28% 10% 28%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 62% 38% 67% 33% 56% 44%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 30% 8% 24% 24% 14% 8% 11% 16% 27% 39% 22% 7% 14% 20% 37%
Gingrich Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 100% 100% 100% Not sure
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11% 44% 49% 7% 52% 39% 9% 47% 20% 33%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 50% 43% 7% 53% 40% 6% 38% 25% 37%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 79% 15% 6% 71% 25% 5% 52% 10% 38%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 45% 55% 49% 51% 47% 53%
10% 26% 43% 21%
10% 28% 36% 26%
10% 13% 39% 38%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 3% 11% 36% 48% 2% 6% 23% 36% 34% 7% 4% 13% 37% 38% Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
39% 46% 14%
23% 67% 10%
19% 58% 23%
Gingrich Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 52% 48% 46% 54% 44% 56% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
45% 4% 31% 10% 10%
3% 18% 50% 16% 13%
12% 10% 39% 11% 28%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 68% 32% 62% 38% 45% 55% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
15% 14% 21% 25% 25%
25% 3% 20% 28% 24%
23% 10% 11% 10% 46%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 43% 43% 14% 56% 37% 7% 28% 31% 41%
Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
Paul Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 42% 48% 9% 57% 36% 6% 54% 13% 34% Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10%
71% 20% 9%
80% 17% 3%
44% 15% 40%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 39% 61% 51% 49% 68% 32% Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25%
15% 28% 40% 18%
5% 23% 40% 32%
9% 21% 39% 31%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 3% 5% 18% 35% 38% 2% 3% 15% 35% 46% 6% 10% 49% 35% Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
29% 59% 12%
37% 52% 12%
9% 60% 32%
Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 40% 60% 57% 43% 53% 47% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
18% 20% 38% 12% 12%
32% 1% 41% 15% 11%
20% 3% 40% 6% 32%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 59% 41% 73% 27% 42% 58% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
21% 4% 33% 23% 19%
22% 14% 4% 30% 30%
10% 11% 13% 15% 50%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 47% 42% 11% 51% 40% 9% 30% 23% 47% Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
41% 47% 12%
58% 38% 4%
41% 24% 35%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 100% 100% 100% Not sure
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 78% 13% 9% 70% 26% 4% 51% 9% 40%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 48% 52% 43% 57% 57% 43% Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25%
7% 23% 42% 29%
15% 28% 38% 20%
9% 25% 40% 27%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 2% 5% 15% 41% 37% 3% 4% 18% 26% 48% 3% 13% 51% 34% Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
28% 59% 13%
35% 55% 9%
21% 46% 33%
Rom ney Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 51% 49% 47% 53% 43% 57% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
14% 3% 66% 9% 8%
38% 19% 11% 18% 14%
21% 10% 20% 8% 40%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 62% 38% 71% 29% 55% 45% 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
22% 8% 21% 31% 19%
19% 13% 21% 5% 41%
11% 11% 5% 14% 59%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 51% 38% 10% 39% 53% 8% 29% 18% 52% Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
47% 46% 7%
52% 38% 9%
43% 13% 45%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 54% 38% 8% 38% 57% 6% 43% 14% 43%
Santorum Favorability Base Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 48% 52% 44% 56% 48% 52% Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25%
9% 24% 42% 25%
16% 32% 33% 19%
9% 18% 41% 32%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 3% 11% 37% 48% 2% 8% 38% 31% 20% 10% 6% 12% 43% 29% Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
34% 53% 13%
23% 69% 8%
16% 53% 31%
Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 53% 47% 33% 67% 47% 53% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
25% 5% 39% 17% 13%
26% 27% 38% 9%
14% 15% 43% 28%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 60% 40% 66% 34% Man
2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
22% 9% 18% 23% 28%
18% 9% 20% 26% 26%
Gender Base Wom an Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 45% 41% 14% 48% 38% 14% Man Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
39% 44% 16%
55% 38% 7%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 50% 36% 13% 49% 42% 9% Man
73% 17% 10%
71% 19% 10%
Gender Base Wom an Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 100% 100% Man
Gender Base Wom an Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25% 10% 24% 33% 32% 10% 26% 46% 19% Man
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Gender Base Wom an Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 5% 16% 34% 44% 4% 4% 16% 38% 38% Man Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
25% 56% 19%
34% 56% 10%
Gender Base Wom an Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 52% 48% 46% 54% Man Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
24% 7% 41% 8% 20%
24% 13% 38% 16% 8%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 71% 29% 67% 33% 57% 43% 64% 36% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 14% 14% 19% 14% 38% 21% 10% 23% 23% 24% 19% 10% 21% 26% 24% 22% 5% 13% 29% 30% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 48% 38% 14% 49% 44% 7% 51% 35% 14% 38% 40% 22% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11% Base
71% 19% 10%
52% 38% 10%
47% 42% 11%
34% 52% 14%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 33% 57% 10% 45% 44% 11% 52% 37% 11% 58% 31% 12% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 62% 29% 10% 70% 23% 7% 75% 15% 10% 73% 14% 13% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age Base Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 48% 52% 45% 55% 39% 61% 61% 39% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65
Age 18 to 29 30 to 45 46 to Older 65 than 65
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Age Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 10% 10% 10% 43% 29% 1% 4% 14% 38% 43% 1% 5% 17% 34% 43% 2% 3% 18% 36% 41% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14% Base
29% 67% 5%
25% 57% 18%
38% 50% 11%
22% 60% 18%
Age Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 38% 62% 39% 61% 49% 51% 62% 38% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure Base
24% 29% 33% 10% 5%
25% 17% 33% 13% 12%
25% 7% 37% 13% 18%
22% 1% 52% 12% 12%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 70% 30% 70% 30% 65% 35% 59% 41% 64% 36%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 8% 10% 8% 8% 65% 27% 12% 15% 16% 30% 13% 17% 16% 25% 29% 20% 4% 20% 28% 28% 23% 10% 21% 23% 23%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 28% 29% 42% 37% 49% 14% 32% 56% 12% 47% 39% 14% 55% 32% 13% Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
71% 29% -
57% 29% 14%
55% 38% 7%
46% 39% 15%
44% 46% 10%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 38% 49% 13% 60% 40% 46% 45% 9% 56% 29% 15% 45% 46% 9%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 39% 18% 42% 53% 33% 15% 49% 43% 8% 73% 16% 12% 84% 9% 7%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 17% 83% 53% 47% 46% 54% 44% 56% 51% 49%
42% 13% 20% 25%
21% 20% 41% 17%
6% 23% 43% 28%
12% 26% 37% 25%
7% 26% 42% 25%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14% 18% 72% 10% 27% 69% 4% 15% 76% 9% 21% 60% 19% 45% 43% 13%
Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 48% 52% 36% 64% 33% 67% 40% 60% 63% 37% Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
10% 21% 46% 10% 13%
27% 17% 45% 7% 5%
18% 21% 42% 8% 10%
24% 8% 45% 5% 17%
27% 7% 32% 21% 13%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 62% 38% 65% 35% 55% 45% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 22% 7% 26% 26% 18% 19% 10% 16% 26% 29% 21% 8% 18% 15% 38% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 62% 29% 9% 39% 47% 14% 48% 28% 24% Yes Not No sure Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11% Base
47% 50% 3%
50% 38% 12%
40% 35% 25%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 46% 46% 8% 52% 39% 9% 48% 26% 26% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 81% 14% 6% 68% 22% 10% 68% 10% 22% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Base Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 40% 60% 47% 53% 64% 36% Yes Not No sure
10% 21% 51% 19%
12% 26% 36% 27%
3% 32% 33% 32%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Tea Party ID Base Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 4% 8% 25% 61% 3% 5% 21% 39% 31% 2% 1% 10% 50% 37% Yes Not No sure
Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14% Base
Tea Party ID Yes No Not sure
100% -
100% -
100%
Tea Party ID Base Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 63% 37% 39% 61% 54% 46% Yes Not No sure Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure Base
31% 10% 34% 17% 8%
21% 12% 43% 12% 12%
22% 4% 33% 7% 33%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 65% 35% 61% 39% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9% 20% 6% 25% 26% 25% 21% 12% 14% 24% 29% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 50% 37% 13% 44% 41% 15% Are not Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
39% 49% 12%
56% 34% 10%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 52% 38% 10% 48% 40% 12% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10% 78% 12% 10% 66% 23% 10% Are not
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 50% 50% 44% 56% Are not
8% 20% 40% 32%
12% 30% 40% 19%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 2% 3% 11% 30% 54% 2% 5% 21% 42% 29% Are not Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
39% 46% 16%
22% 66% 12%
Evangelical? Are an Base Evangelical Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 100% 100% Are not Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
28% 5% 40% 17% 9%
20% 15% 39% 8% 18%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Com m itted to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind? Strongly com m itted 63% to that candidate Might end up 37% supporting som eone else 67% 33% 85% 15% 57% 43% 68% 32% 51% 49% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure 2012 GOP Pres Caucus 2nd Choice New t Gingrich 20% Ron Paul 9%
23% 8% 17% 34% 18%
9% 10% 11% 24% 46%
17% 8% 27% 29% 19%
32% 20% 16% 10% 22%
21% 4% 9% 12% 54%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Gingrich Favorability Favorable 47% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 14% 88% 5% 7% 18% 68% 14% 37% 49% 14% 38% 49% 13% 34% 38% 28% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Paul Favorability Favorable 48% Unfavorable 41% Not sure 11%
37% 54% 9%
92% 5% 3%
46% 43% 11%
47% 48% 5%
41% 34% 26%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Rom ney Favorability Favorable 50% Unfavorable 39% Not sure 11% 29% 61% 10% 16% 73% 11% 83% 11% 6% 37% 56% 7% 28% 41% 31% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Santorum Favorability Favorable 72% Unfavorable 18% Not sure 10%
74% 20% 6%
37% 48% 15%
72% 17% 11%
100% -
68% 11% 20%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Gender Wom an 47% Man 53% 46% 54% 32% 68% 49% 51% 30% 70% 69% 31% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Age 18 to 29 10% 30 to 45 25% 46 to 65 40% Older than 65 25%
10% 26% 41% 23%
28% 41% 29% 2%
8% 21% 37% 33%
8% 26% 42% 25%
3% 22% 53% 22%
February 4, 2012
Crosstabs
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Ideology Very liberal Som ew hat liberal 2% 4% 1% 5% 12% 36% 46% 5% 7% 33% 29% 26% 3% 5% 17% 42% 33% 2% 2% 10% 16% 70% 2% 2% 11% 45% 40% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure Tea Party ID Yes 30% No 56% Not sure 14%
39% 48% 13%
29% 66% 6%
26% 62% 12%
40% 53% 8%
17% 50% 33%
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Base Gingrich Evangelical? Are an Evangelical 48% Are not 52% 56% 44% 25% 75% 49% 51% 67% 33% 33% 67% Ron Mitt Rick Som eone Paul Rom ney Santorum else/Not sure
Best Chance to Defeat Obam a? New t Gingrich 24% Ron Paul 10% Mitt Rom ney 39% Rick Santorum 13% Som eone else/Not 14% sure
100% -
100% -
100% -
100% -
100%
February 4, 2012

PPP Release Como 205

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

Close race in Minnesota, Romney up in Colorado

Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Colorado Survey Results

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum?

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Who would be your second choice for President?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

26% 53% 22% -

30% 14% 55% -

34% 10% 56% -

12% 21% 40% 16% 11%

Paul Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure

17% 30% 36% 16% 2%

19% 1% 43% 34% 2%

17% 1% 41% 29% 12%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Santorum Favorability Not Base Favorable Unfavorable sure

18% 8% 36% 38% 1%

21% 27% 47% 6%

15% 15% 54% 7% 10%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

34% 56% 10%

23% 66% 10%

24% 40% 36%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

15% 19% 36% 30%

19% 29% 34% 18%

14% 24% 35% 27%

12% 30% 36% 21%

13% 42% 16% 29%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

34% 51% 15%

31% 58% 12%

45% 38% 17%

16% 48% 36%

Moderate 12% Som ew hat 35% conservative Very conservative 47%

72% 1% 16% 2% 10%

5% 53% 24% 3% 16%

16% 1% 26% 38% 19%

11% 15% 75%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

43% 47% 10%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

66% 24% 10%

77% 11% 12%

14% 26% 34% 26%

15% 24% 38% 23%

survey of 527 likely Republican caucus voters