Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Bank of India
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 8.6 11.6 45.8 3QFY11 1,987 1,389 653 % chg (yoy) 4.1 24.7 9.6
`344 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, Bank of India posted a moderate set of results, with net profit growing by 9.6% yoy to `716cr, above our estimates on account of higher sequential rise in NIM than expected by us. We recommend Neutral on the stock. NPA levels decline sequentially; NIM improves sequentially: The banks advances growth picked up during 3QFY2012, growing by 7.5% qoq (up 19.5% yoy). Deposit growth was moderate during the quarter, growing by 2.7% qoq (up 21.7% yoy). As a result of faster rise in advances sequentially, credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio increased by 331bp qoq to 75.0%. CASA deposits grew by rather moderate 13.4% yoy with SA deposits growing at a slightly better pace of 14.3% yoy. Domestic CASA ratio improved sequentially to 32.4% in 3QFY2012 from 31.3% in 2QFY2012. Domestic NIM of the bank improved by 14bp qoq in 3QFY2012 to 2.9%, on the back of uptick in yield on advances (up 24bp qoq) to 11.9%. Fee income performance was robust during the quarter, growing by 31.5% yoy (up 1.2% qoq). Recoveries from written-off accounts nearly trebled on a yoy basis to `186cr. The banks NPA levels improved during 3QFY2012, with both gross and net NPA levels declining by 2.5% and 3.6% sequentially, respectively. As of 3QFY2012, gross NPA ratio stood at 2.7% (3.0% in 2QFY2012), while net NPA ratio stands at 1.8% (2.0% in 2QFY2012). Provision coverage ratio continued to remain low at 60.9% in 3QFY2012 (59.1% in 2QFY2012). The 9MFY2012 annualized slippage ratio for the bank stands at 3.1% compared to 1.5% for 9MFY2011. The bank witnessed a chunky slippage of ~`500cr from its aviation account during the quarter. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at cyclically moderate valuations of 1.1x FY2013E ABV compared to historical range of 1.05-1.55x, with a median of 1.25x. However, valuations are higher than peers, considering the poor RoE outlook for the bank due to the macro headwinds. Accordingly, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.9 11.9 15.7 6.6
3m (2.9) 3.8
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 5,756 4.7 1,741 (42.1) 2.4 33.1 10.4 1.5 0.7 14.2
FY2011 7,811 35.7 2,489 42.9 2.6 45.5 7.6 1.2 0.8 17.3
FY2012E 7,996 2.4 2,441 (1.9) 2.2 44.6 7.7 1.2 0.7 14.4
FY2013E 9,374 17.2 2,603 6.6 2.3 47.6 7.2 1.1 0.6 13.7
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 7,150 5,171 1,841 182 (45) 5,083 2,068 852 781 320 71 186 275 2,920 1,188 759 429 1,732 693 333 119 241 1,039 323 716 31.1 6,886 4,886 1,843 133 24 4,982 1,904 842 687 326 154 88 274 2,746 1,194 728 467 1,552 1,154 824 151 179 397 (94) 491 (23.7) 3.8 5.8 (0.1) 37.0 (290.2) 2.0 8.6 1.2 13.6 (1.7) (53.9) 112.1 0.3 6.3 (0.5) 4.3 (8.1) 11.6 (40.0) (59.6) (21.2) 34.4 161.6 (443.4) 45.8 5472bp 5,468 4,023 1,275 151 18 3,481 1,987 648 589 284 59 66 239 2,635 1,246 837 409 1,389 498 124 66 309 891 238 653 26.7 30.8 28.5 44.4 20.5 (353.0) 46.0 4.1 31.5 32.6 12.9 20.3 182.4 14.7 10.8 (4.7) (9.3) 4.8 24.7 39.2 169.4 80.9 (21.9) 16.6 35.8 9.6 438bp
Actual 2,068 852 2,920 1,188 1,732 693 1,039 323 716
Estimates 1,962 797 2,758 1,216 1,543 710 832 208 624
Var (%) 5.4 6.9 5.8 (2.3) 12.3 (2.4) 24.8 55.1 14.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Profitability ratios excluding CIR for domestic operations
10.6
15.0 10.0
76.3
73.3 71.7
6.2 4.8
2.0
7.5 2.7
5.0 (5.0)
18.4
71.3
32.3
28.9
30.2
31.3
0.9 (1.9)
23.0 20.0
(0.3)
65.0
32.4
68.0
3QFY12 2QFY12 320 71 124 186 151 852 781 326 154 148 88 126 842 687
% chg (qoq) 3QFY11 (1.7) (53.9) (16.5) 112.1 20.0 1.2 13.6 284 59 127 66 112 648 589
2.4 0.9
2.2 0.9
2.7 1.3
3.0 2.0
47.3
61.5
44.2
43.5
40.7
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
47.3
464
409
1,462
837
700
405
728
467
759
429
20.0 -
2.7 1.8
0.5
0.5 -
Investment arguments
Embattled with asset-quality issues
Asset-quality pressures, which had moderated in FY2011 post the severe stress witnessed in FY2010, once again re-surfaced in 1HFY2012 with slippages rate rising to 4.2%. As of 9MFY2012, slippage ratio remains high at 3.1%. While the spike in 1HFY2012 was partly due to migration to system-based NPA recognition platform, the rate of slippages could remain on the higher side in the coming quarters as well due to the weak macro environment. As a result, earnings, which are expected to decline by ~2% yoy in FY2012 due to lower NIMs, are likely to remain subdued even in FY2013. Consequently, the banks RoEs, which were unsustainably high at 28% in FY2008 and FY2009 and subsequently declined to 14% in FY2010 itself, are likely to remain at sub-14% until FY2013 as well, as the bank continues to pay the price for high risk-taking in FY2008-09.
Earlier estimates FY2012 17.0 15.0 25.3 2.1 18.3 (15.0) 15.0 4.5 62.0 FY2013 16.0 16.0 25.1 2.1 6.7 14.0 14.0 3.8 60.0
Revised estimates FY2012 16.0 13.0 25.8 2.2 18.3 (15.0) 12.0 4.4 62.0 FY2013 16.0 16.0 25.5 2.3 6.9 14.0 14.0 3.5 63.0
600
400
200
Dec-03
Dec-10
Jul-04
Apr-06
Aug-08
Mar-02
Mar-09
Oct-02
Oct-09
Jul-11
Feb-05
Sep-05
Nov-06
May-03
May-10
Feb-12
Jun-07
Jan-08
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 4,229 22.9 2,117 35.4 6,346 26.8 2,645 1.4 3,701 54.5 1,017 17.9 2,685 75.1 675 25.2 2,009 78.9 FY09 5,499 30.0 3,052 44.2 8,551 34.7 3,094 17.0 5,457 47.4 1,292 27.1 4,164 55.1 1,157 27.8 3,007 49.7 FY10 5,756 4.7 2,617 (14.3) 8,373 (2.1) 3,668 18.5 4,705 (13.8) 2,211 71.1 2,494 (40.1) 753 30.2 1,741 (42.1) FY11 7,811 35.7 2,642 1.0 10,452 24.8 5,068 38.2 5,384 14.4 1,889 (14.6) 3,495 40.2 1,007 28.8 2,489 42.9 FY12E 7,996 2.4 3,126 18.3 11,121 6.4 4,738 (6.5) 6,383 18.6 3,128 65.6 3,255 (6.9) 814 25.0 2,441 (1.9) FY13E 9,374 17.2 3,341 6.9 12,715 14.3 5,401 14.0 7,314 14.6 3,461 10.6 3,853 18.4 1,250 32.4 2,603 6.6
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 526 10,063 150,012 25.1 7,172 4,946 6,110 178,830 11,742 5,976 41,803 113,476 33.6 2,426 3,407 178,830 26.3 FY09 526 12,969 189,708 26.5 9,487 6,186 6,625 225,502 8,915 12,846 52,607 142,909 25.9 2,532 5,692 225,502 26.1 FY10 526 13,704 229,762 21.1 14,079 8,320 8,590 274,982 15,603 15,628 67,080 168,491 17.9 2,352 5,829 274,982 21.9 FY11 547 16,743 298,886 30.1 12,862 9,160 12,975 351,173 21,782 15,528 85,872 213,096 26.5 2,481 12,413 351,173 27.7 FY12E 547 18,676 337,741 13.0 14,449 10,625 12,469 394,507 21,953 17,444 94,229 247,192 16.0 2,703 10,986 394,507 12.3 FY13E 547 20,738 391,780 16.0 16,741 12,325 14,963 457,095 25,466 20,211 108,908 286,742 16.0 3,038 12,729 457,095 15.9
10
Ratio analysis
Y/E March NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.2 2.2 1.1 3.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.3 22.0 27.6 2.7 0.6 2.1 0.4 2.4 1.1 3.6 1.5 2.1 0.6 1.5 19.6 29.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.7 0.8 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 20.4 14.2 2.5 0.6 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.8 21.8 17.3 2.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.7 22.0 14.4 2.2 0.8 1.4 0.0 1.4 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 22.5 13.7 9.0 2.1 1.2 6.0 1.6 2.3 10.4 1.5 2.0 7.6 1.2 2.0 7.7 1.2 2.3 7.2 1.1 2.5 38.2 167.8 4.0 57.2 215.2 8.0 33.1 229.4 7.0 45.5 287.1 7.0 44.6 291.8 8.0 47.6 321.6 8.5 1.7 0.5 1.6 0.4 75.6 1.7 0.4 1.8 0.3 56.1 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.7 65.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 0.3 72.2 4.3 2.3 4.4 0.7 62.0 5.4 2.5 3.5 0.8 63.0 30.6 75.6 13.0 8.2 26.8 75.3 13.0 8.9 27.8 73.3 12.9 8.5 25.4 71.3 12.2 8.3 25.8 73.2 12.3 8.2 25.5 73.2 12.0 7.8 FY08 2.7 41.7 1.3 27.6 FY09 2.8 36.2 1.5 29.2 FY10 2.4 43.8 0.7 14.2 FY11 2.6 48.5 0.8 17.3 FY12E 2.2 42.6 0.7 14.4 FY13E 2.3 42.5 0.6 13.7
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12