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PRELISTED REPORT
Listing information
Listing price (VND): Number of shares listed: Proportion of shares listed: Effective listed date: 1 trading day Room for foreign investors Locked for foreign strategic partner Available
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MBB is one of the ten largest lenders and fund mobilizers among joint stock commercial banks and leads the listed banks in terms of ROA and NIM. The Bank receives great support from its large shareholders, particularly in terms of technology, customer base and operating network. MBB maintained a very high annual growth of NPAT, above 40%, during the period 2004 2010 thanks to the significant high average growth of net interest income (70.4%) and fees and commissions (76.4%). MBB has strengths in fund mobilization, risk management, good profitability and liquidity. The Bank also has good capital adequacy with CAR of 11% in 9M2011. Consolidated NPBT was only VND1,776 billion, completing 61% of 2011 consolidated plan due to the negative impact of TLSs performance. However, MBB confirmed that it would give further support to TLS to mitigate that impact in the final quarter of 2011. With the listing price of VND13,800, MBBs P/E forward would range from 4.6x 4.7x, which is much lower than the average 8.4x of the banking sector. Considering other strengths of MBB, we believe MBB is a good investment choice among listed banking stocks. Overview of MBB
Shareholder composition
11% 10% 8.86% 57% 7.24% 5.71%
VCB MSB Saigon Newport Indicator O.I (VND bn) % y-o-y NPAT (VND bn) % y-o-y T.A (VND bn) % y-o-y Equity (VND bn) Loans (VND bn) Deposits* (VND bn) NPL (%) NIM (%) ROAA (%) ROAE (%) CAR (%) EPS (VND) 2009 2,654 62.0% 1,095 55.6% 69,008 55.6% 6,888 29,588 54,096 1.58% 2.86% 1.93% 19.4% 12% 2,066
Viettel VN Helicopter Corp Other 2010 4,088 54.1% 1,712 56.5% 109,623 58.9% 8,882 48,797 88,068 1.26% 3.52% 1.92% 21.7% 11.6% 2,345 9M2011 4,177 1,397 115,014 10,194 55,966 94,561 1.67% 11% -
BANK PROFILE
Military joint stock commercial bank (MBB) was established on 30/09/1994 as an institution specializing in providing financial services for military corporations. Since its dawn with chartered capital of only VND20 billion, MBB has strongly grown into one of ten largest banks in Vietnam, holding chartered capital of VND7,300 billion and total assets of VND115,014 billion by the end of 30/09/2011. The number of employees also increased from 25 to more than 4,000 staff during this period. In terms of operating network, MBB has a nationwide network of 156 branches and transaction offices with around 330 ATMs. Currently, MBB has five major shareholders, namely Vietcombank, Viettel, Maritime Bank, Vietnam Helicopter Corporation and Saigon Newport, which represent a total of 43% stake. MBB planned to increased chartered capital to VND10,000 billion by the end of 2011 by selling VND1,000 billion worth of share to Viettel and the rest VND700 billion worth of share to other existing shareholders. Viettels stake in MBB would increase to
Analyst: Linh Thuy Quach (qtlinh@vcbs.com.vn) Page 1
Source: VCBS, *: deposits from customer, other credit institution & valuable papers
VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT 18.5% afterwards. It is noteworthy that 20% of room for foreign investors has been locked for strategic partners and only 10% is available for other foreign investors. Effective date was 26/10/2011. MBB pursues the business model of MB holdings, including MB bank and other subsidiaries in financial service and real estate sectors, in the long term. MBBs current subsidiaries include TLS (61.85% stake), MB Capital (61.78% stake), MB AMC (100%), MB Land (65.26% stake) and Viet REMAX (78.09%).
MARKET POSITION
Credit market share 2010
CTG 10.5% VCB 7.9% ACB 3.9% STB 3.7%
Ranking in top ten market leaders in lending and fund mobilization: MBB is one of the ten largest lenders and fund mobilizers among joint stock commercial banks, holding market share of 2.2% and 3% respectively at the end of 2010. MBBs important role in providing financial services for military corporations has brought the bank outstanding advantages over other commercial banks in terms of customer base.
EIB 2.8%
Other 66.7%
Strong financial capacity: MBB was also one of the ten largest banks in terms of total assets and chartered capital in the whole banking sector in 2010. The cumulative average growths of these two figures were as high as 60.3% and 59.3% respectively during the period 2004 2010. MBB leads the banking sector in terms of ROA: Although MBBs total asset was lower than that of the other banks in top ten, the Bank showed the highest profitability in terms of ROA (1.56%) and maintained such a high ROE of 19.28% in 2010. Regarding asset quality, MBBs focus on risk management has enabled the Bank to achieve a low NPL ratio of 1.26% in 2010. MBB also reported a relatively high capital adequacy, reflecting in CAR of 11.6% in 2010, which was much higher than the SBVs minimum requirement of 9%.
Bank
EIB 2.6% TCB 3.6%
Other 63.8%
AGRB CTG BIDV VCB ACB STB TCB EIB MSB MBB
Total assets (VND bn) 523,498 367,712 366,268 307,496 205,103 152,387 150,291 131,094 115,336 109,623
Chartered capital (VND bn) 21,042 15,172 14,600 13,224 9,377 9,179 6,932 10,560 5,000 7,300
Loans (VND bn) 406,300 231,435 248,898 171,125 86,478 81,664 52,317 61,718 31,522 48,058
ROA 0.51% 0.93% 1.03% 1.37% 1.14% 1.23% 1.38% 1.38% 1.00% 1.56%
ROE 8.52% 18.74% 15.51% 20.39% 20.52% 13.35% 22.08% 13.43% 18.29% 19.28%
NPL 3.71% 0.66% 2.50% 2.83% 0.34% 0.54% 2.29% 1.42% 1.87% 1.26%
CAR 6.14% 8.02% 9.32% 9.00% 10.60% 9.97% 13.11% 17.79% 8.11% 11.60%
MBB 3.0%
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT
Income composition
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 2008 NII Forex trading Dividends 2009 2010 9M2011 Fee & commissions Securities Other income 86.7% 11.7% 69.3% 86.1% 14.4% 14.3% 11.7%
88.9%
NPAT growth
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 NPAT NPAT growth VND Billions 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT caused by the performance of MBBs subsidiaries, TLS. However, according to MBBs representative, the Bank would give further support to TLS to mitigate the impact in the final quarter of 2011.
Deposit growth
VND Billions 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
*: YTD growth
Loan growth
VND Billions 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Loans
Loan growth
CAMEL ANALYSIS
Capital Adequacy: The period 2008 9M2011 saw an overall downward trend of the equity/loans ratio from 28.11% to 18.21%, which put MBB at a higher risk should there be a dramatic increase in non-performing loans. This also indicates the slower growth of shareholders equity compared to the growth of its lending during this period. However, this ratio of MBB in 9M2011 was still much higher than that of VCB (15.14%), CTG (8.77%), ACB (12.72%). In addition, MBB has managed to maintain a relatively high CAR ratio of around 11% - 12% since 2008. As can be seen, CAR ratio of MBB in 2010 was 11.6%, considerably higher than the minimum requirement of 9% and that of other largest banks in the sector. MBB also expects to increase its CAR to 13-14% by the end of 2011 after successfully raising its capital to VND10,000 billion.
Capital adequacy
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 CAR Equity/Loans 2009 2010 9M2011
Equity/Total assets
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
As MBBs assets, particularly loans to customers and investments, grew exponentially in recent years, the asset quality was the key factor to ensure effective business results of the banks. When loans were classified by term and quality, the following features should be noted. MBB has maintained a stable structure of its loan portfolio by term from 2008 until now. Short-term loans accounted for 63.1% of gross loans in 9M2011, a slight increase from 59.9% in 2010. The proportions of loans for medium and long term in gross loans both decreased in 9M2011 (medium-term: from 20.7% to 19.6%; long-term: from 19.4% to 17.8%). In addition, short-term loans grew by 20.8% ytd in 9M2011 while medium and long-term loans went up by a lower level of 7% ytd. This indicated a positive change in loan structure by term and further strengthened MBBs ability to ensure a safe ratio of short-term funds used to make medium and long-term loans. NPL ratio soared up to 1.63% but provision/loans ratio also went up accordingly. The transition of loans in group 3 to group 4 and group 5 was observed during 2009 9M2011, particularly in 9M2011. Accordingly, NPL ratio increased sharply from 1.26% in 2010 to 1.63% in 9M2011. In particularly, the loans in group 5 grew by 57.9% in 9M2011, accounting for as high as 72.4% of the total non-performing loans. This trend is popular for the whole banking sector in this period due to the unfavorable market movements. However, the ratio of provision for credit to customers/loans also increased from 1.54% in 2010 to 2.29% in 9M2011 to ensure the quality of MBBs assets. In addition, MBB subsidiary, MB AMC focusing on buying and selling debts, will help the Bank to clear its NPLs. Investment securities made up 94% of total investment, 61.1% of which was discountable Government bonds. MBB has increased its investment securities by 10.5% from VND15,702 billion in 2010 to VND17,357 billion in 9M2011, particularly Government bonds up by 27.9% in this period. Thanks to this, MBB has enjoyed the interest spread between borrowing in OMO and lending in the interbank market. High proportion of Government bonds also ensures the safety condition of MBBs investment portfolio. However, as stated above, MBB needs to pay attention to its equity investment, which accounted for 6.7% of total investment securities, as provision may increase significantly in current market conditions. Management competence: Members of director board and management board of MBB are mainly experienced senior personnel from its large shareholders and Defense Ministry. Therefore, MBB has received great support from Viettel, VCB, Saigon Newport and VN Helicopter Corporation in terms of technology, customer base and management experience. Particularly, as a military business corporation, Viettel has been well-known for its nationwide coverage network, even in rural and remote regions, thanks to the support of human resources from Defense Ministry. Accordingly, MBB can exploit its largest shareholders network to expand its business in potential areas
Analyst: Linh Thuy Quach (qtlinh@vcbs.com.vn) Page 5
Loans by term
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 Short term 2009 2010 9M2011 Long term 58.4% 53.3% 59.9% 63.1% 26.3% 25.3% 20.7% 19.6% 15.3% 21.4% 19.4% 17.8%
Medium term
Loans by quality
VND Billions 1,000 800 600 1% 400 200 2008 2009 2010 9M2011 Loans group 4 NPLs/Loans 1% 0% 2% 2%
VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
Profitability
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ROA ROE NIM
In terms of management, MBB already signed a strategic consultancy contract with McKinsey in 2010 for the period of 2011 2015. The contents included the proposal of a business model and organizational restructuring plan, and the building of a detailed action plan for 2011 with top 20 initiatives. McKinsey has succeeded in consulting many large banks in Vietnam like Techcombank and Eximbank, thus we believe this also works for MBB and helps the Bank to sustainably expand its business. Given its current capital size, MBB has flexibly maintained the operating expense/operating income ratio, reaching 40.18% in Q2.2011 and lower than that of CTG (56.87%), ACB (42.98%) and STB (48.38%). This indicates that MBBs management board has controlled its expenses more efficiently than the other three banks. Earnings ability:
6.1% 3.8%
Deposit composition
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 22.6% 0% 2008 2009 2010 9M2011 Valuable papers From customers From other credit institutions 21.6% 19.2% 15.3% 71.8% 73.9% 74.6% 80.9% 5.6% 4.5%
MBB led the listed banks in terms of ROA and NIM in 2010, staying at 1.56% and 3.52% respectively. This high ROA was contributed by the higher average growth rate of NPAT than that of total assets during 2004 2010 (65.3% vs 60.3%). In addition, there are two main drivers for MBB to achieve such an impressive NIM, including stable deposit source and low funding cost thanks to the support of its large shareholders. ROE of MBB showed an upward trend during 2006 2010, reaching 19.28% and was higher than that of larger banks like CTG, STB, EIB and BIDV. Liquidity risk: MBB has maintained a remarkably high average growth of total deposits during 2004 2010 (58.2%). Also, the proportion of deposit from customers in total deposits has gradually increased from 71.8% in 2008 to 80.9% in 9M2011 while the percentage of deposits from other credit institutions went down from 22.6% to 15.3% during 2004 9M2011. This trend indicated MBBs decreasing dependence in the interbank market over the years and built a firm base for the Banks business expansion. Regarding liquidity ratio, loans/total deposit ratio went up gradually from 2008 to 2010 due to MBBs lending expansion. However, this ratio of MBB in 2Q2011 (57.86%) was lower than that of CTG (97.1%), VCB (74.7%), STB (65.7%) and EIB (57.3%) in the same period. Furthermore, the percentage of short-term fund used for mid-long term loans of MBB was below the cap 30% required by the SBV in all five recent years, reaching 17.6% in 2010. Considering MBBs healthy deposit composition and safe liquidity ratios, we believe that the Banks liquidity risk is being well managed.
Liquidity ratio
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Loans/Total deposits Loans/Total assets Liquidity assets/Deposit from customers and other credit insitutions % short-term fund used for mid-long term loans
SWOT ANALYSIS
Strengths: (1) One of ten market leaders in lending and fund mobilization. (2) Strong support from large shareholders in terms of technology,
Analyst: Linh Thuy Quach (qtlinh@vcbs.com.vn) Page 6
VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT network and customer base. (3) MBB had the highest NIM and ROA among listed banks in 2010. (4) Good risk management and liquidity. Weaknesses: (1) Profit is considerably affected by its subsidiary TLS. (2) Being hurt by the limit on credit growth starting from 2011. Opportunities: (1) Good prospects in developing retail banking (2) Have chance to achieve higher growth than the average of the sector based on strong fund mobilization. (3) Higher ability to expand in remote and rural areas than other banks thanks to Viettels support. Threats: (1) Increasing competition in the banking sector. (2) NPLs are in the upward trend.
Attractive valuation: Based on the assumption that MBB can achieve its 2011 NPBT plan of VND2,915 billion, we build up two scenarios for MBB as below. (1) MBB can successfully raise its chartered capital to VND10,000 by the end of 2011 (2) MBB cannot raise its chartered capital to VND10,000 on time by the end of 2011. With the listing price of VND13,800, MBBs P/E forward would range from 4.6x 4.7x, which is much lower than the average 8.4x of the banking sector. Considering other strengths of MBB in fund mobilization, risk management, good profitability and liquidity, we believe MBB is a good investment choice among listed banking stocks.
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT
BALANCE SHEET
Unit: VND billion Total Assets Cash and Precious Metals Balances with the SBV Placements with and loans to other credit institutions Trading Securities Derivatives and other financial assets Loans and advances to customers, net Investment Securities Investment in other entities and long term investments Fixed Assets Other Assets Liabilities and Shareholder's Equity Total Liabilities Due to Gov and borrowings from SBV Deposits and borrowings from other credit institutions Deposits from customers Derivatives and other financial liabilities Funds received from Gov, international and other institutions Convertible bonds/CDs and other valuable papers issued Other liabilities Shareholder's Equity Chartered Capital Reserves Foreign Currency Difference reserve Difference upon Assets Revaluation Retained Earnings Minority Interest 2008 44,346 412 515 16,010 209 0 15,494 8,478 1,637 629 962 44,346 39,669 0 8,532 27,163 0 834 2,137 1,003 4,424 3,400 0 0 0 289 253 2009 69,008 541 1,427 24,063 684 0 29,141 9,674 1,181 623 1,673 69,008 61,513 4,709 11,697 39,978 0 475 2,421 2,234 6,888 5,300 0 0 0 397 607 2010 109,623 869 746 33,652 1,821 0 48,058 15,564 1,576 1,224 6,113 109,623 99,882 8,769 16,917 65,741 0 117 5,411 2,928 8,882 7,300 0 0 0 781 859 0 3,574 0 10,194 7,300 253 0 0 0 0 3,063 27,553 1,300 0 54,711 16,828 11,560 0 0 115,014 104,123 0 14,478 76,509 9M2011 115,014
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT
INCOME STATEMENT
Unit: VND billion Net Interest Income Net Fee and Commission Income Net gain/(loss) from foreign currency and gold dealings Net gain/(loss) from trading of trading securities Net gain/(loss) from disposal of investment securities Net Other income/(expenses) Dividends income Total operating income General and Admin expenses Operating Profit Before Provision for Credit Losses Provision for credit losses Profit before tax Business Income Tax Net Profit For the Year Minority Interest 2008 1,421 191 101 -168 0 39 54 1,638 -555 1,083 -222 861 -165 703 7 2009 1,838 381 -73 214 0 255 38 2,654 -784 1,869 -364 1,505 -331 1,095 -79 2010 3,519 589 1 -4 0 124 91 4,088 -1,254 2,834 -546 2,288 -543 1,712 -33 9M2011 3,715 487 -168 -571 -5 651 39 4,177 -1,523 2,655 -879 1,776 -539 1,397 -160
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT
FINANCIAL RATIO
RATIO GROWTH YOY Total Assets Owners Equity Loans to customers Deposits Total deposits Total operating income NPAT PROFITABILITY ROAA ROAE NIM CAPITAL ADEQUACY Equity/Total assets CAR OPERATING EFFICIENCY Operating expenses/Operating income Interest bearing assets/Total assets Non-interest expenses/Total assets Non-interest expenses/(Net interest income + Noninterest income) LIQUIDITY Loans/Total deposits Loans/Total assets Deposits from customers/Total assets Liquidity assets/Deposits ASSET QUALITY Provision for loans to customers/Loans NPL/Loans NPL/Owners equity IMCOME COMPOSITION NII/Operating income Fee & commissions income/Operating income Forex trading income/Operating income Trading & investment securities/Operating income Dividends/Operating income Other income/ Operating income 86.73% 11.67% 6.19% -25.48% 3.29% 17.59% 69.27% 14.35% -2.74% 11.01% 1.45% 6.67% 86.08% 14.40% 0.03% -5.77% 2.23% 3.02% 88.93% 11.66% -4.01% -13.79% 1.62% 15.59% 1.59% 1.83% 6.51% 1.53% 1.58% 6.79% 1.54% 1.26% 6.90% 2.29% 1.63% 8.93% 33.91% 93.67% 1.98% 51.31% 29.55% 93.14% 1.35% 33.18% 30.67% 91.27% 1.49% 38.54% 9.98% 9.98% 12.00% 8.10% 11.60% 8.86% 11.00% 1.90% 17.80% 3.42% 1.93% 19.35% 2.86% 1.92% 21.71% 3.52% 49.70% 27.15% 35.09% 56.71% 52.56% 72.77% 42.78% 55.61% 55.70% 88.08% 44.77% 42.99% 61.99% 55.64% 58.86% 28.95% 64.92% 59.96% 62.80% 54.07% 56.39% 2008 2009 2010 9M2011
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VIETCOMBANK SECURITIES
PRELISTED REPORT
DISCLAIMER
This report is designed to provide updated information on the results of companies business as well as analysis of factors affecting the prospects of the business. The report and / or any judgments and information in the report are by no means construed as investment advices, buy or sell offers, or investment proposals of any financial products, securities of related companies analyzed in the report. Therefore, this report should be best considered as a reference only. VCBS does not bear any responsibility for unwanted results when the information in the report is used. All the information stated in the report has been collected and assessed as carefully as possible, however VCBS does not guarantee the accuracy of the information and has no obligation to update the information after the report was released. All opinions, judgments, estimations and projections in this report represent independent views of the analyst at the date of publication only. Therefore, VCBS and/or departments of VCBS may have securities transactions inconsistent with recommendations in this report. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the written permission of an authorized representative of VCBS. Please cite sources when quoting. Copyright 2010 Vietcombank Securities Company. All rights reserved.
Investment Analyst: Le Thi Le Dung (ltldung@vcbs.com.vn) Le Thi Ngoc Anh (ltnanh@vcbs.com.vn) Nguyen Thi Thanh Nga (nttnga_hcm@vcbs.com.vn) Le Huyen Minh (lhminh@vcbs.com.vn) Nguyen Vinh Nghiem (nvnghiem@vcbs.com.vn) Quach Thuy Linh (qtlinh@vcbs.com.vn) Tran Gia Bao (tgbao@vcbs.com.vn)
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