EL NINO'S BACK IN TOWN El Nio's back with all of its implications for world climates.

For some, that is good news, but not so for others. El Nio occurs when a warm lens of surface water spreads eastward from Indonesia across the Pacific Ocean, generally reaching the west coast of South America. Since it occurs around Christmas, "El Nio" refers to "the little boy" or the Christ child. El Nio occurs every four to eight years, accompanied by relatively erratic weather in many parts of the world. El Nio's warm surface water in the Pacific replaces the cooler waters that normally upwell along Peru and Ecuador's coasts. This upwelling of cold water by the Peruvian Current is part of the normal circulation, which dominates the weather in western South America during most years. A cold Peruvian Current normally found along the tropical western South American coast tends to create dry, stable weather conditions. Any cold, moist maritime air that moves onshore typically warms and dries over the tropical land and the relative humidity declines. During these normal years, cold water of the Peruvian Current moves northward along the South American coast, then turns westward and spreads over the Pacific toward Indonesia. The Northeast and Southeast Trade Winds, which converge around the equator, tend to push this cold water westward. El Nio reverses the direction of flow, bringing warm ocean water flowing eastward along the surface of the Pacific Ocean. This suppresses the coldwater influence of the Peruvian Current, as

well as the normal Trade Wind patterns. Therefore, the effects of El Nio's warm water over such a large area of the Pacific Ocean tend to influence the weather globally. Weather patterns become much more unpredictable as the wind and pressure systems around the world adjust to this large influence.Generally, surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific off the coast of Ecuador range from 70 to 80 degrees F (21 to 27 degrees C), which is cool for tropical locations. Recently, however, water temperatures have been climbing higher than the monthly mean, indicating an increasing El Nio. At the height of a strong El Nio, the temperature may approach 10 degrees F (6 degrees C) warmer than normal. Although not everything is known about why El Nio occurs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) permanently positioned ocean temperature sensors across the Pacific now give up-to-date information about temperature changes at surface and subsurface locations. These data have not only increased the agency's ability to predict El Nio, but it has helped scientists understand the linkages to other atmospheric events. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Nio is expected to continue strengthening into 2010. As a general rule, the result should be fewer tropical storms (hurricanes) in the Atlantic, drier conditions in the Southwest and Northwest United States and a wetter than normal winter in the Gulf Coast states. The 1997-98 El Nio was accompanied by flooding in South America, drought in Africa, and diminished rain in South and Southeast Asia. El Nio's warm waters even spread along

California's coast, depressing sea life and fisheries. Fish stocks along the South American coast tend to decline radically during El Nio. A specific example of erratic meteorological behavior involves hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Climatologists and meteorologists have long connected El Nio to a reduced frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. As a general rule, only half as many hurricanes occur during El Nio years. Extreme numbers (five to seven) and greater intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes may occur during years of extreme coldwater upwelling in the Peruvian Current, a condition just the reverse of El Nio, called La Nia ("the girl child"). The variability in both intensity and frequency of El Nio and La Nia events during the last 50 years has been growing. Many suspect that global warming is related.