Joint Exam 1/P Sample Exam 3

Take this practice exam under strict exam conditions: Set a timer for 3 hours; Do not stop the timer for restroom breaks; Do not look at your notes. If you believe a question is defective or poorly worded, you must continue on just like during the real exam. Video solutions are available for this exam at http://www.theinniteactuary.com/?page=exams&id=50

TIA 1/P Seminar

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Sample Exam 3

1. The average height of adult Americans is 176 cm, with a standard deviation of 6 cm, for males, and 163 cm, with a standard deviation of 5 cm, for females. If heights of each group are normally distributed, what is the probability that a randomly selected American male is taller than a randomly selected American female? A. 0.85 B. 0.88 C. 0.91 D. 0.93 E. 0.95

2. The number of chocolate chips in a jumbo chocolate chip cookie at the Blue Frog Bakery has a binomial distribution with mean 5 and maximum possible value 8. If I buy two jumbo chocolate chip cookies, what is the coecient of variation for the total number of chocolate chips in the cookies? A. 0.19 B. 0.27 C. 0.32 D. 0.38 E. 0.50

3. If P[A] = 0.7 and P[B c ] = 0.4, what is the maximum possible value of P[AB]? A. .1 B. .3 C. .4 D. .6 E. .7

4. The joint moment generating function for X1 and X2 is MX1 ,X2 (t1 , t2 ) = et1 +2t2 3t1 t2 +4t1 +5t2 . Find the correlation coecient between X1 and X2 . A. 0.56 B. 0.34 C. 0.15 D. 0.34 E. 0.56
2 2

5. Three random variables X1 , X2 and X3 have density 3x2 for 0 < x < 1. If the variables are i.i.d., nd the density of the median of the three variables. A. 3x2 B. 3x5 3x8 C. 18x5 18x8 D. 9x5 9x8 E. 8x3 7x6

6. The moment generating functions for X1 and X2 are given by are independent, what is the variance of X1 + X2 ? A. 1/4 B. 1/2 C. 1

4 for 2 < t < 2. If X1 and X2 4 t2 D. 2 E. 4

7. If X is an exponential random variable with mean 2, and Y = density of Y . A. 0.07 B. 0.14 C. 0.18

X, nd fY (2), where fY denotes the

D. 0.27

E. 0.37

8. Suppose that X and Y are discrete random variables taking the values 1, 2, 3 or 4, and that the joint probability distribution, for all possible combinations of X and Y , is proportional to y 3 + x2 . Find P[Y = 3 | X = 2]. A. 0.06 TIA 1/P Seminar B. 0.12 C. 0.17 p. 2 D. 0.22 E. 0.27 Sample Exam 3

9. Suppose that X and Y are uniformly distributed on the diamond 0 < |x| + |y| < 1. Find P[Y > 1/4 | X = 1/2]. A. 0.25 B. 0.28 C. 0.39 D. 0.50 E. 0.75

10. Bob is always early to his companys weekly 8 am meeting, arriving at a time uniformly distributed between 7:55 and 8:00. Charlie is always late to the same meeting, arriving at a time uniformly distributed between 8 and 8:10. If their arrival times are independent, what is the probability that they arrive within 5 minutes of each other? A. 0 B. 1/8 C. 2/8 D. 3/8 E. 4/8

11. The cost of damage C in a re has a density given by f (c) = 3 2003 /(c + 200)4 for c > 0. If the damage is insured with is a $500 deductible, what is the expected payment? A. 8 B. 16 C. 34 D. 92 E. 100

12. Suppose that X is an exponential random variable with mean , where is uniformly distributed on [0, 2]. Find E X 2 . A. 2/3 B. 1 C. 4/3 D. 2 E. 8/3

13. In a small, liberal arts college, 40% of the students have taken calculus. Of those who have taken calculus, 25% have not seen Star Wars. Moreover, given that someone has not seen Star Wars, the probability that that student has taken calculus is 20%. Find the probability that a randomly selected student who has not taken calculus has seen Star Wars. A. 1/5 B. 1/4 C. 1/3 D. 1/2 E. 2/3

14. Suppose that X and Y are uniformly distributed over the set y/3 < x < 2y and 0 < y < 20. Find Var[Y | X = 10]. A. 75/4 B. 100/3 C. 625/12 D. 75 E. 175

15. For t < 2, nd the moment generating function for the random variable X whose density is 4xe2x for x > 0. A. 4 (2 t)2 B. 1 (1 2t)2 C. 4 4 t2 D. 1 1 4t2 E. 4 (4 t)2

16. The probability that a driver will get into an accident within 2 years of obtaining a drivers license is 65% for males and 45% for females. If 4 people are randomly selected, 2 male and 2 female, and their driving records are independent, what is the probability that at most 2 of them will get into an accident within 2 years of obtaining a license? A. 0.38 TIA 1/P Seminar B. 0.47 C. 0.58 p. 3 D. 0.61 E. 0.76 Sample Exam 3

17. The probability that I arrive at work on time on a given day is 25%. Suppose that I go to work 250 days in a year, and whether or not I arrive on time each day is independent. Using a normal approximation with a continuity correction, what is the approximate probability that I arrive on time more than 55 dierent days? A. 0.83 B. 0.85 C. 0.87 D. 0.88 E. 0.91

18. If P[A B ] = 0.2, P[A B] = 0.3 and P[A B] = 0.8, nd P[A B]. A. 0.2 B. 0.3 C. 0.4 D. 0.5 E. 0.6

19. In Saint Tropez, the probability that it rains on a given day is 10%. Given that it rains, the amount of rain has a density of f (x) = (1/3)ex/3 . Find the variance of the amount of rain on a given day. A. 0.9 B. 1.7 C. 3.0 D. 4.4 E. 9.0

20. An urn contains 4 red balls, and 4 blue balls. A ball is randomly drawn from the urn, and then replaced, along with a second ball of the same color. The process is then repeated. What is the probability that the rst three balls drawn are two red balls and one blue ball? A. 1/4 B. 1/3 C. 1/2 D. 2/3 E. 3/4

21. If the joint density of X and Y is proportional to x + y 2 for 0 < x < 1 and 0 < y < 1, nd the variance of Y . A. 2/25 B. 7/60 C. 7/50 D. 33/80 E. 1/2

22. An urn contains 6 balls, 1 red, 2 blue, and 3 green. If I draw 2 balls with replacement, what is the probability that they are dierent colors? A. 8/36 B. 14/36 C. 18/36 D. 22/36 E. 28/36

23. The time T , in years, until the next time a piece of space debris with mass of at least 5g hits the Earth has a probability density function fT (t) = 2e2t . Let N be the number of years, rounded down, until this occurs. What is VarN ? A. 0.14 B. 0.18 C. 0.25 D. 1.16 E. 1.34

24. An insurance company pays $10,000 for the rst loss, $7,500 for the second, and then $5,000 for each successive loss. If the number of losses has a Poisson distribution with mean 2.5, what is the expected loss size? A. 12, 500 TIA 1/P Seminar B. 14, 200 C. 15, 800 p. 4 D. 17, 500 E. 18, 900 Sample Exam 3

25. Suppose that X and Y are jointly normal with E X 2 = 3, VarX = 2, E Y 2 = 5, VarY = 4, and that the correlation of X and Y is 1/2. If the means of X and Y have dierent signs, nd EXY . A. 2.4 B. 1.4 C. 0.4 D. 0.6 E. 1.6

26. The cdf of X is given by 0 x 4

2

F (x) =

3 x/4 1

x0 0<x2 2x<3 3x<4 4x

Find EX. A. 41/24 B. 47/24 C. 41/12 D. 43/12 E. 47/12

27. The joint density of X and Y is given by fX,Y (x, y) = 5 2 x y 81

for 0 < x < y < 3, and is 0 otherwise. Find the marginal density function fY (y) for 0 < y < 3. A. 5y 4 243 B. 5y 9 C. 5x2 18 D. 5(9x2 x4 ) 162 E. 5x4 162

28. If the joint density of X and Y is given by fX,Y (x, y) = xex(y+1) 0 x > 0, y > 0 otherwise,

nd the conditional density of y given that X = 2. A. 2e2y B. xex(y+1) ex C. e2 D. 2e2y2 E. 4ye2y

29. The density f (x) of X is proportional to x2 for 0 < x < c, and is 0 otherwise. If the median of X is 2, what is c? A. 2.0 B. 2.5 C. 3.0 D. 3.5 E. 4.0

30. Suppose that X is a Poisson random variable with mean 2. What is the probability that X is greater than its mean, given that X is less than its mean plus its variance? A. 4/19 TIA 1/P Seminar B. 2/7 C. 5/7 p. 5 D. 10/19 E. 12/19 Sample Exam 3

Answers (1) E (2) A (3) D (4) B (5) C (6) C (7) D (8) E (9) A (10) C (11) A (12) E (13) C (14) A (15) A (16) D (17) B (18) B (19) B (20) B (21) A (22) D (23) B (24) E (25) A (26) B (27) A (28) A (29) B (30) A

TIA 1/P Seminar

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Sample Exam 3