BIOL 300: Biostatistics

Statistical quotations
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain

Statistical quotations
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain

It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them.

Frederick Mosteller

Professor: Dr. Luke Harmon Department of Zoology Ofce: 1370 Biosciences Ofce Hours: 2 - 4 pm Mondays (or after class) e-mail: harmon@zoology.ubc.ca

Course website
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~bio300/ Lecture notes Textbook and Lab Manual Assignments and answers Contact information

Textbook
Whitlock and Schluter, The analysis of biological data Available in two installments at CopieSmart, UBC Village Also available online

JMP
Optional statistical software Used in labs Available in bookstore 60-day trial version on web: www.jmp.com

Evaluation
Final Mid-term Assignments (homework) Lab exam (nal week of term) 50% 30% 10% 10%

Examinations
Midterm: Thursday October 19 in class Final exam: TBA Old exams will be posted on the website

Assignments
Available on course web-page, announced in class Due on Fridays at noon, at your TAs ofce (eight days after they are assigned) Bonus points for in-class quizzes and activities

Lab
Begins third week of term (September 18- 22) Biol. Sci. room 2434 Lab exam during final week of classes Book available at Copiesmart in the village and online

Class Forum
There will be a forum for discussion on the web Discussion of lectures, labs, and homework More details available next week

STATISTICS PAIRINGS
Credit given for only one of BIOL 300, FRST 231, STAT 200, PSYC 218 or 366. These are paired with BIOL 300, but do not count as requirements for Biology majors and pre-reqs

Introduction to statistics
Statistics - technology used to describe and measure aspects of nature from samples Statistics lets us quantify the uncertainty of these measures

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html

http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/DarwinFinch.html

Sir Francis Galton The history of statistics has its roots in biology
Inventor of ngerprints, study of heredity of quantitative traits Regression & correlation Also: efcacy of prayer, attractiveness as function of distance from London

Karl Pearson
PolymathStudied genetics Correlation coefcient !2 test Standard deviation

Sir Ronald Fisher

The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection Founder of population genetics Analysis of variance likelihood P-value randomized experiments multiple regression etc., etc., etc.

Goals of statistics
Estimation
Infer an unknown quantity of a population using sample data

Statistics is also about good scientic practice

Hypothesis testing
Differences among groups Relationships among variables

Introductory Puzzle
How to protect bombers ying over enemy territory? British Air Ministry - WWII Looked at distribution of bullet holes in airplanes returning from bombing runs

Results
Where should more armor be added to the airplanes? Explain your conclusion

http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html

Variable
A variable is a characteristic measured on individuals drawn from a population under study. Data are measurements of one or more variables made on a collection of individuals.

Explanatory and response variables

We try to predict or explain a response variable from an explanatory variable.

Mortality on the Titanic, as predicted by sex Populations and samples

Nomenclature
Precise Imprecise

Populations <-> Parameters; Samples <-> Estimates

Mean Variance Standard Deviation

Population Parameters "2 " !

Sample Statistics
Unbiased

x
s2
Biased

Properties of a good sample

Independent selection of individuals Random selection of individuals Sufciently large

In a random sample, each member of a population has an equal and independent chance of being selected.

Bias is a systematic discrepancy between estimates and the true population characteristic.

A sample of convenience is a collection of individuals that happen to be available at the time.

Sampling error
The difference between the estimate and average value of the estimate

Population parameters are constants whereas estimates are random variables, changing from one random sample to the next from the same population.

Larger samples on average will have smaller sampling error

Read: Chapters 1 & 2