Expert System

1 Definition
"A computer program that uses artificial intelligence to solve problems, to make decision and clarify uncertainties by using specialized domain and analytical rules that ordinarily requires human expertise."

1.2 Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) The branch of computer science define as The study and design of intelligent agents where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chances of success.

1.3 Domain
The area of knowledge addressed by the expert system.

2 Explanation

In artificial intelligence, an expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert. Expert systems are designed to solve complex problems by reasoning about knowledge, like an expert, and not by following the procedure of a developer as is the case in conventional programming.

2.2 Components of Expert System

An expert system has a unique structure, different from traditional programs. It has three components

2.2.1 The rule base or knowledge base

The knowledge base contains the knowledge with which the inference engine or inference mechanism draws conclusions. The knowledge used in expert systems may either be expertise or generally available knowledge from published sources. Typically, knowledge obtained from published sources is not comprehensive enough to encompass a complete knowledge base for a specific domain. For this project, literature searches will provide a basis for the preliminary knowledge contained. For almost any domain, however, experts acquire knowledge through experience in performing the task at hand. It is therefore critical to include expert input regarding the knowledge contained within the system. With expert systems, there are many different formats available for the storage of knowledge within the system. Typically, the knowledge is stored as facts and rules in the database. One common method of representing knowledge is in the form of if-then production rules. For examples :

"IF it is living THEN it is mortal" "IF his age = known THEN his year of birth = date of today - his age in years" "IF the identity of the germ is not known with certainty AND the germ is gram-positive AND the morphology of the organism is "rod" AND the germ is aerobic THEN there is a strong probability (0.8) that the germ is of type enterobacteriacae"

2.2.2 Inference engine or mechanism

The inference mechanism uses the knowledge base to draw conclusions. For a given user query, the inference mechanism will search through the knowledge base to prove the query. This is done in many paradigms through a process of searching and pattern matching. In a backward chaining system, the inference mechanism will begin with a goal and will search through the knowledge base to prove that goal. The expert system will typically search through the database to find the data that will prove that the queried goal is true. In a forward chaining system, the inference mechanism will begin with data and search through the knowledge base to find a conclusion. There are many other techniques which may be used for expert system development, in addition to forward chaining and backward chaining inference mechanisms. The specifics of the storage format and the inference mechanism paradigm are dependent upon the knowledge under consideration and the usage of the expert system. Additionally, expert systems typically allow for the incorporation of explanation facilities. With an explanation facility, the user may ask the system why it is asking a particular question or how it has reached a particular conclusion. This is a capability that is not possible using procedural programming techniques. Additionally, with the structure of the system being declarative in nature, knowledge may be continually added to the system thereby extending its capabilities.

2.2.3 User Interface

This is a mechanism to support communication between and the system. The user interface may be a simple text-oriented display or a sophisticated, high resolution display. It is determined at the time of designing the system. Nowadays graphical user interfaces are very common for their user-friendliness.

2.2.4 Example
A good example of application of expert systems in banking area is expert systems for mortgages. Loan departments are interested in expert systems for mortgages because of the growing cost of labor which makes the handling and acceptance of relatively small loans less profitable. They also see in the application of expert systems a possibility for standardized, efficient handling of mortgage loan, and appreciate that for the acceptance of mortgages there are hard and fast rules which do not always exist with other types of loans.

3 Intelligence Characteristics of expert system

Expert system is an interactive that responds to question, ask for questions, ask for clarification makes recommendation and generally aids the decision making process. Expert system have many intelligence characteristics 3.1 - Operates as an interactive system Expert system operates as an interactive system, means it responds to question ask for clarification makes recommendation and generally aids the decision making process. 3.2 - Tools have ability to shift (filter) Knowledge Expert system have some tools that's have the ability to storage and retrieve the knowledge and it also have the mechanism to expand and update knowledge base on a continue basis. 3.3 - Make logical base inferences based on knowledge store In the expert system simple mechanism system is used. knowledge base must have means of exploiting the knowledge stored, else its useless Example learning all the words language, without knowing how to combine those words to foam a meaning sentence. 3.4 - Ability to Explain reasoning Expert system have the ability to remember chain or reasoning therefore user may ask for the explanation of a recommendation and factor consider in recommendation. it enhance user confidence of recommendation and acceptance of expert system.

3.5 - Domain Specific Expert system has a particular system casters a narrow area of specialization; Example an medical expert system cannot find faults in an electric circuit Quality of advise order by an expert system is depend on the amount of knowledge stored. 3.6 - Capability to assign confidence value Expert system can deliver quantitative information it can also interpret qualitatively derived values and can imprecise and incomplete data through assignment of confidence values

Role of expert system in evaluating the gap disparity in the business process to help out the management .

Explanation
Different tasks in business problem solving require different computation tools. Artificial intelligence techniques, (Expert System) as a tool, provide the capability to the program to solve complex problems by extracting ideas from data of a knowledge-base usually a database using a domain oriented set of rules in a manner that a human brain archives decision-making process to come up with a comprehensible solution. Expert systems are profession specialized programs. They are artificial intelligent systems but are inclined to only one area of professionalism. Artificial intelligence unlike conventional programs which concentrate on what data to analyze to come up with a solution, they concentrate on how an expert makes choices when faced with a professional challenge and why he/she makes such choices. These abilities are only provided by Artificial intelligence techniques and this is a role they play in decision support functions.

Example
Business Insight is an expert system for assessing and developing marketing and product/service strategies for larger businesses. By combining responses to questions with its built-in rules, it generates numerous conclusions about your business's strategies etc. These give unique insights into the complex relationships between hundreds of business concepts and enable strategies to be reviewed, modified and enhanced before implementation. Business Insight includes separate knowledge bases for product- and service-based enterprises. Its assessments can be exported to Microsoft Word and PowerPoint as well as to the PDF format and the Internet. Windows 95/98/Me/NT/2000/XP/Vista/Win7 is required.

Advantages And Disadvantages of Expert Systems (ES):

Advantages of Expert System To Managers:
Managers who use ES can expect to make better decisions by considering more alternatives, applying a higher level of logic in evaluating the alternatives, having more time the evaluation, and achieving a consistency in the decisions that are reached.

a. Consider More Alternatives:

An Expert System can enable a manager to consider more alternatives in the process of solving a problem.

b. Apply A Higher Level Of Logic:

A manager using an Expert Systems can apply the same logic that of a leading experts in the field.

c. More Time To Evaluate Decision Results:

The manager can obtain advice from the Expert Systems quickly, leaving more to weigh the possible results before action has to be taken.

d. More Consistent Solutions:

The computer does not have good days and bad days as the human managers do. Once the reasoning is programmed into the computer, the manager knows that the same solution process will be followed for each problem.

Advantages of Expert System To The Firm:

a. Better Performance For The Firm:
As the firm's managers extend their problem solving abilities through use of Expert Systems, the firm's control mechanism is improved. The firm is better able to meet its objectives.

b. Maintain Control Over The Firm's Knowledge:

Expert Systems afford the opportunity of making the experienced employee's knowledge more available to newer, less experienced employees and of keeping that knowledge in the firm longer, even after the employees have left.

Disadvantages of Expert Systems:

a. The Knowledge Engineering Bottleneck:
The enormous time and efforts required extracting the expert's knowledge and translating it into IF/THEN rules upon which an expert system is based. Transferring expertise to the Expert System is sometimes difficult because experts cannot always explain how they know what they know. Often experts are not aware of their complete reasoning process. Experience has given them a feel for the problem, and they just "know".

b. The Programming Bottleneck:

Programming the system and maintaining the code is very difficult. Even if the expert can explain the whole reasoning process, automating that process may be impossible. The process nay be too complex, requiring an excessive number of rules, or it may be too vague or imprecise.

c. The Learning Problem:

The Expert System is unable to incorporate the changing relationships in the decision environment. While using an Expert System, keep in mind that it can solve only the problems for which it was designed. It can't deal with inconsistency or a newly encountered problem situation. An Expert System can't learn from previous experience and can't apply previously acquired expertise to new problems the way human can.

d. Judgment Problem:
Expert Systems cannot apply the judgment and intuition, which is an Important ingredient for problem solving. An Expert System has no common sense or judgment. There is no doubt thatcuring the next few years effective Expert Systems will continue to -be successfully applied. However, the accomplishment will not come easily. Among all of the possible application domains, the one that are selected will be the ones that best meet the firm's overall objectives in terms of maximizing payoff and minimizing risk of failure.