RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Definition of Research Research is an endeavor to discover answers to intellectual and practical problems throug h the application of scientific method. Research is the systematic process of collecting and analyzing to increase our understanding of the phenomenon about which we are concerned or interested. Objectives of a Research To gain familiarity with a phenomenon or to achieve new insights into it. To portray accurately the characteristics of a particular individual, situation or a group. To determine the frequency with which something occurs or with which it is associated with something else. To test a hypothesis of a causal relationship between variables. Types of Research 1. Descriptive Survey: Descriptive survey uses facts or information already available and analyzes to make a survey & fact finding enquiries of different kinds. The basic purpose of descriptive research is description of the state of affairs as it exists at present. The main characteristic of this research is that the researcher has no control over the variables; he can only report what has happened or what is happening. 2. Applied Survey: Applied research aims at finding a solution for an immediate problem faced by a society or an industrial organization. Research aimed at certain conclusions facing a concrete social or business problem is an example of applied research. Thus, the central aim of applied research is to discover a solution for some pressing practical problem.

3. Quantitative Research: Quantitative Research is employed for measuring the quantity or amount of a particular phenomenon by the use of statistical analysis. Quantitative research is based on the measurement of quantity or amount. It is applicable to phenomenon that can be expressed in terms of quantity. The objective of quantitative research is to develop and employ mathematical models, theories and/or hypotheses pertaining to phenomena. Quantitative research is used widely in social sciences such as psychology, sociology, anthropology, and political science. Research in mathematical sciences such as physics is also 'quantitative' by definition, though this use of the term differs in context. In the social sciences, the term relates to empirical methods, originating in both philosophical positivism and the history of statistics, which contrast qualitative research methods.

4. Qualitative Research: Qualitative Research is a non-quantitative type of analysis which is aimed at finding out the quality of a particular phenomenon. Qualitative approach to research is concerned with subjective assessment of attitudes, opinions and behavior. Research in such a situation is a function of researchers insights and impressions .such an approach to research generates results either in non-quantitative form or in the form which are not subjected to rigorous quantitative analysis. Generally, the techniques of focus group interviews, projective techniques and depth interviews are used. For instance, when we are interested in investigating the reasons for human behavior (i.e. why people think or do certain things) we often talk of Motivation Research, an important type of qualitative research.

Data collection 1. Primary data: Primary research involves collecting data that does not already exist. The advantages of primary research are control over the information that is collected. The researchers can then customize how they want the research to go and how long it should take. There are also some disadvantages such as cost. In order to find primary data, the research can get pretty expensive. The process can also take a long time since the data must be researched instead of just having secondary data already available. Since it takes some time to do the research, the findings may already be outdated by the time they are derived.

There are many methods of collecting primary data and the main methods include: questionnaires interviews focus group interviews observation case-studies diaries critical incidents Portfolios. 2. Secondary Data: Published data and the data collected in the past or other parties are called secondary data. Secondary data is data that has already been collected by someone else for a different purpose to yours. The sources of secondary date include: paper-based sources books, journals, periodicals, abstracts, indexes, directories, research reports, conference papers, market reports, annual reports, internal records of organizations, newspapers and magazines Electronic sources CD-ROMs, on-line databases, Internet, videos and broadcasts. trade associations trade and other journals private research publishers large company market reports professional bodies Academic institutions. Tools for data analysis Correlation Regression Trend analysis Forecasting Standard deviation Microsoft Excel

Correlation: The correlation is one of the most common and most useful statistics. A correlation is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables. A positive relationship means that, in general, higher scores on one variable tend to be paired with higher scores on the other and that lower scores on one variable tend to be paired with lower scores on the other.

Regression: Linear regression analyzes the relationship between two variables, X and Y. The goal of regression analysis is to determine the values of parameters for a function that cause the function to best fit a set of data observations that you provide. In linear regression, the function is a linear (straight-line) equation. It is a statistical measure that attempts to determine the strength of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other changing variables (known as independent variables). The two basic types of regression are linear regression and multiple regressions. Linear regression uses one independent variable to explain and/or predict the outcome of Y, while multiple regressions use two or more independent variables to predict the outcome. The general form of each type of regression is: Linear Regression: Y = a + bX + u Where: Y= the variable that we are trying to predict (dependant variable) X= the variable that we are using to predict Y (independent variable) a= the intercept b= the slope u= the regression residual. Dependent Variable: A dependent variable is a variable dependent on another variable: the independent variable. In simple terms, the independent variable is said to cause an apparent change in, or simply affect, the dependent variable. For example, in a call centre, the number of customers serviced per hour, depends on the number of agents, and average service time per customer. In this case number of customers is a dependent variable, entirely dependent on the other two independent variables namely agents, and average service time.

Independent Variable: An independent variable is a factor that can be varied or manipulated in an experiment (e.g. time, temperature, concentration, etc). It is usually what will affect the dependent variable. There are two types of independent variables, which are often treated differently in statistical analyses: (1) quantitative variables that differ in amounts or scale and can be ordered (e.g. weight, temperature, time). (2) Qualitative variables which differ in "types" and cannot be ordered (e.g. gender, species, method). By convention when graphing data, the independent variable is plotted along the horizontal X-axis with the dependent variable on the vertical Y-axis. P-VALUE: The P value is a probability, with a value ranging from zero to one. It is the answer to this question: If the populations really have the same mean overall, what is the probability that random sampling would lead to a difference between sample means as large (or larger) than you observed? HYPOTHESES: Hypotheses may be defined as a set of proposition set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomenon either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide some investigation or accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts. A hypothesis should be clear and precise and also be capable of being tested. It should state relationship between variables and must be consistent with a substantial body of established facts. A researcher must remember those narrower hypotheses are generally more testable and acceptable. Null hypotheses: typically proposes a general or default position, such as that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena or that a potential treatment has no effect. Hypothesis testing works by collecting data and measuring how probable the data are, assuming the null hypothesis is true. If the data are very improbable (usually defined as observed less than 5% of the time), then the experimenter concludes that the null hypothesis is false. If the data do not contradict the null hypothesis, then no conclusion is made. In this case, the null hypothesis could be true or false; the data give insufficient evidence to make any conclusion. For instance, a certain drug may reduce the chance of having a heart attack. Possible null hypotheses are "this drug does not reduce the chances of having a heart attack" and "this drug has no effect on the chances of having a heart attack".

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1What is Research Methodology?
Research methodology is defined as highly intellectual human activity used in the investigation of nature and matter and it deals specifically with the manner in which data is collected, analyzed and interpreted. Research: In the broadest sense of the word, the definition of research includes any gathering of data, information and facts for the advancement of knowledge. The scientific definition of research generally states that a variable must be manipulated, although case studies and purely observational science do not always comply with this norm. Scientific research must be organized and undergo planning, including performing literature reviews of past research and evaluating what questions need to be answered. Methodology on the other hand is the study of the methods to be used in any form of inquiry. The methods used in the study of politics include archival research; the study of previously printed materials; interview-based research; textual and contextual analysis of the arguments of past political thinkers; comparative government based on case studies, and quantitative research, often based on conducting one's own surveys or analysing other people's. All of these methods give rise to questions of methodology, although it is sometimes exclusively (but wrongly) associated with quantitative analysis.

Literature review is the systematic review of available resources and includes: Theoretical and conceptual concepts. Identification of independent and dependent variables. Measurement and operational definitions. Selection of appropriate research technique. Sampling strategy Statistical technique Findings and conclusions of similar studies studied.

Sources of information for literature review can be found out with the help of : Books Journals Internet Data bases Archives Interview Observations Reports Records

2 DIFFERENT TYPES OF RESEARCH DATA

The different types of research data are: QUALITATIVE DATA - 'Soft' data that approximates but

does not measure the attributes, characteristics, properties, etc., of a thing or phenomenon. Qualitative data is extremely varied in nature. It includes virtually any information that can be captured that is not numerical in nature.8
QUANTITATIVE DATA - 'Hard,' measurable (through a

suitable measure such as dollars, degrees, inches, millimetres) and verifiable data amenable to statistical manipulation. The term qualitative data is used to describe a type of information that can be counted or expressed numerically. This type of data is often collected in experiments, manipulated and statistically analyzed. Quantitative data can be represented visually in graphs, histograms, tables and charts. 9

3 DATA ON THE BASIS OF SOURCE OF COLLECTION

Data: It refers information in raw or unorganized form (such as alphabets, numbers, or symbols) that refers to, or represents, conditions, ideas, or objects. Data is limitless and present everywhere in the universe. On the basis of source of collection data can be classified into two types:

Primary data

 Secondary data

Primary data: It refers to data observed or collected directly from

first-hand experience. Primary data is the data which is collected by the researcher directly from his own observations and experiences. For example, if the researcher conducts a survey for the collected of data then it is known as primary data. In primary data collection, the researcher collects the data himself using methods such as interviews and questionnaires. The key point here is that the data the researcher collects is unique to him and his research and, until he publishes, no one else has access to it. 10 There are many methods of collecting primary data and the main methods include: questionnaires interviews focus group interviews observation case-studies diaries critical incidents Portfolios.

Secondary data can be described as the most widely used method

for data collection. This process involves accessing information that is already gathered from either the originator or a distributor of primary research. Secondary research includes collecting information from

third-party sources such as company websites, sales and accounting records, magazine articles and marketing research reports. It also includes any previously gathered information used by the marketer from any internal or external source.11

The reason for choosing secondary source and not going for primary data is because of the following advantages:

Advantages of Secondary data

It is economical. It saves efforts and expenses. It is time saving. It helps to make primary data collection more specific since with the help of secondary data, we are able to make out what are the gaps and deficiencies and what additional information needs to be collected. It helps to improve the understanding of the problem. It provides a basis for comparison for the data that is collected by the researcher.

Though secondary data is widely used but still there are few limitations that I have come across while using this data. These are:

Disadvantages of Secondary Data

Difficult or costly access Unsuitable aggregations and definitions Does not meet the purpose of study

No real control over data quality

4 SAMPLE AND DATA USED

The data used is secondary quantitative data. Data has been collected for a time span of ten years from 1999-2000 to 2008-09. No primary data have been collected and analyzed. Hence the sample size stands at ten. Since all the data used here is secondary in nature, the method of data collection has been relatively uncomplicated-through books, journals, and most importantly the Government sites and search engines which have been mentioned elaborately in the Bibliography. The above mentioned method of data collection has been used, due to the abundance of relevant data available on these sources. Data has been analysed using MS EXCEL and SPSS STATISTICS DATA EDITOR. To study the different objectives various indices, statistical tools and techniques are adopted in appropriate places in order to draw specific conclusions. The various variables and statistical tools used in the are described below:

PRODUCTION
Production is the manufacturing process in which input is converted into output. It is the core activity of the organisation. It refers to the processes and methods employed to transform tangible inputs (raw

materials, semi finished goods, or subassemblies) and intangible inputs (ideas, information, knowledge) into goods or services.

CONSUMPTION
Consumption is the expenditure during a particular period on goods and services used in satisfaction of needs and wants. As consumption increases production also increases, but more than proportionately. Thus the stock left over is usually exported. 12

PRICE INDEX
Price index is an index that traces the relative changes in the price of an individual good (or a market basket of goods) over time.

EXPORT
Export is the process by which goods and services that are produced domestically are sold to buyers in another country. It is goods or any articles of trade or commerce sent out of a country to another country. Export is done to earn foreign exchange and also to improve the balance of payment. As the demand of product is fulfilled in domestic market, the companies export the left out product in stock. It is also done to meet the demand of the product in the future market.

IMPORT
Import is to bring or carry in from an outside source, especially to bring in (goods or materials) from a foreign country for trade or sale. As import increases the domestic demand is also met.

5 STATISTICAL TOOLS

There are various statistical tools that we use for our analysis. These tools are as following:

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Descriptive statistics refers to mathematical quantities (such as mean, median, standard deviation) that summarize and interpret some of the properties of a set of data (sample) but do not infer the properties of the population from which the sample was drawn. 13

MEAN
It can be defined as the sum total of all the observations divided by the number of observations. (Note:- the observations have to be quantitative and not qualitative).

MEDIAN
If the data is arranged in the increasing or decreasing order then the middlemost value of the data is known as the median. 14

STANDARD DEVIATION
Standard deviation is a widely used measure of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability theory. It shows how much variation or "dispersion" there is from the average (mean, or expected value). A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values.

 = standard deviation xi = each value of dataset x (with a bar over it) = the arithmetic mean of the data (This symbol will be indicated as mean from now) N = the total number of data points (xi - mean)2 = The sum of (xi - mean)2 for all datapoints. 15

CORRELATION
The word correlation is used to denote the degree of association between variables. If two variables x and y are so related that variations in the magnitude of one variable tend to be accompanied by variations in the magnitude of other variables, they are said to be correlated. If y tends to increase as x increases, the variables are said to be positively related. If y tends to decrease as x increases the variables are negatively correlated. If the values of y are not affected by changes in the value of x, the variables are said to be uncorrelated. Properties of correlation coefficient The correlation coefficient r is independent of the choice of both origin and scale of observations the correlation coefficient r is a pure number and is independent of the units of measurement. The correlation coefficient r lies between 1& +1. Formulae,

REGRESSION:
In statistics, linear regression refers to any approach to modelling the relationship between one or more variables denoted y and one or more variables denoted X, such that the model depends linearly on the unknown parameters to be estimated from the data. Such a model is called a "linear model." Most commonly, linear regression refers to a model in which the conditional mean of y given the value of X is an affine function of X. Less commonly, linear regression could refer to a model in which the median, or some other quintile of the conditional distribution of y given X is expressed as a linear function of X. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on the conditional probability distribution of y given X, rather than on the joint probability distribution of y and X, which is the domain of multivariate analysis.

Multiple regression
It generally explains the relationship between multiple independent or multiple predictor variables and one dependent or criterion variable. In multiple regressions, a dependent variable is modelled as a function of several independent variables with corresponding multiple regression coefficients, along with the constant term. Multiple regressions require two or more predictor variables, and this is why it is called multiple regression.

The multiple regression equation explained above takes the following form: y = b1x1 + b2x2 + + bnxn + c. y is the value of the Dependent variable (Y), what is being predicted or explained a (Alpha) is the Constant or intercept b1 is the Slope (Beta coefficient) for x1 x1 First independent variable that is explaining the variance in y b2 is the Slope (Beta coefficient) for x2 x2 Second independent variable that is explaining the variance in y b3 is the Slope (Beta coefficient) for x3 x3 Third independent variable that is explaining the variance in y Hence, bis (i=1,2n) are the regression coefficients, which in multiple regression represents the value at which Multiple Regression in SPSS data editor is done by selecting analyze from the menu. Then, from analyze, select regression, and from regression select linear. You can then perform multiple regressions. There are certain terminologies in multiple regression that help in understanding multiple regression. These terminologies are as follows:

The beta value in multiple regression is used in measuring how effectively the predictor variable influences the criterion variable. In multiple regression, it is measured in terms of standard deviation. R, in multiple regression is the measure of association between the observed value and the predicted value of the criterion variable. R Square, or R2, in multiple regression is the square of the measure of association which indicates the percent of overlap between the predictor variables and the criterion variable. Adjusted R2 in multiple regression is an estimate of the R2 if you used this model with a new data set. F indicates whether the equation as a whole is statistically significant in explaining Y. 16

LINE GRAPH
A line chart or line graph is a type of graph, which displays information as a series of data points connected by straight line segments. It is an extension of a scatter graph, and is created by connecting a series of points that represent individual measurements with line segments. A line chart is often used to visualize a trend in data over intervals of time a time series thus the line is often drawn chronologically. The line graphs contained in annexure are stacked line graphs.

What is Hypothesis
Hypothesis testing is a common practice in science that involves conducting tests and experiments to see if a proposed explanation for an observed phenomenon works in practice. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation for some kind of observed phenomenon, and is an important part of the scientific method. The scientific method is a set of steps that is commonly employed by those in scientific fields to give scientific explanations for various phenomena.

Null hypothesis:

A type of hypothesis used in statistics that proposes that no statistical significance exists in a set of given observations. The null hypothesis attempts to show that no variation exists between variables, or that a single variable is no different than zero. It is presumed to be true until statistical evidence nullifies it for an alternative hypothesis.

Alternative hypothesis:
The alternative hypothesis is the hypothesis used in hypothesis testing that is contrary to the null hypothesis. It is usually taken to be that the observations are the result of a real effect (with some amount of chance variation superposed).