DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION Sell Stop 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3480

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup.

1.3650

Buy limit 3 LONG 3 SHORT 2 LONG 3

0.9110 1.0250 1.0570 122.70

All three objectives at 0.9300 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 124.10/126.00/127.32 (Entered on 14/11/11) Look to see how 104.00 fares.

0.9050 1.0050 1.0470 121.30

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

SHORT 3 Sell stop 3

0.8555 1.2130

0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 (Entered 11/11/2011) 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

0.8655 1.2230

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

SHORT 3

34.1300

29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

35.6880

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend-line).

BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000)

The bearish move is now being further anchored down by heightened European soverign debt risk after Italian Govt. yields launched above 7%. The recent break under 1.3653 (18
th

Oct low) unlocks further downside

200-DMA (1.4104)

SHARP REVERSAL AT KEY RESISTANCE TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000. Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs. Inversely, the USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.72)
6 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.
BREAKOUT ZONE

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

3 STD ABOVE ONE YEAR AVERAGE

TRIGGER (15000)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

COT LIQUIDITY

EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell stop 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Break back over 1.6127 fails to materialise.

Long exited. GBP/USD continues to be in a choppy corrective phase off the recent 1.6167 high. The swift move higher that took place last Friday led us to initially believe that the corrective phase was over, with a return to 1.6200 then viable. However, provided that support can be found between 1.5840 and the current zone of trade, a further swing higher remains favoured. This year has seen a generally range bound environment, with a return to the highs of the annual range possible, near 1.6618/1.6747. Our bias

remains positive due to the near-term bullish structure that is in place. While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative again. Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter into a strengthening phase.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

USD/JPY is continuing to edge lower, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.
82.00

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
80.24

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30. Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launhcing a powerful recovery into 91.00.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET (85-79)

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

PIR II

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Break over 0.9151 suggests scope for a return to 0.9316.

The strategy below will be negated by a return to 0.9300. USD/CHF Continues to rise within the confines of an hourly channel. The break over 0.9151 today now warns of a return to the channel resistance and a re-test of the 0.9316 level. A small retrace is now sought for the creation of a lower high and the resumption of strength. Back under 0.9060 is required to negate this short term bullish setup. As Italian government bond yields have eased back below 7.00%, this takes the pressure off the Swiss Franc as a safe haven, for now. USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 0.9110, Objs: All three objs at 0.9300, Stop at 0.9050.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range). Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

200-DMA (0.9823)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9825 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low).
st

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD has broken through support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1322, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

50%

(1.3570)
61.8% 50% 200-DMA (1.3841)

(1.3379)

(1.1488)

61.8%

(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1314)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011
AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Sharp setbacks weigh.

AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

the 200-day MA (1.0418). A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

rates multi-year uptrend. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.98. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 Oct low). A break here
th

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0418) 61.8%

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
13

appetite.

200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

200DMA (83.12)

(72.58)
61.8%

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Trades close to the old 122.36/122.65 platform.

GBP/JPY has seen a re-test of the 122.38/65 platform over recent sessions. This now potentially completes the corrective structure that has been witnessed since 127.32, with support anticipated. Now that the surge higher from the end of October has been unwound, there is scope for a higher low to form, for a fresh swing to the upside. It is this unwinding that we have been expecting ahead of any potential fresh strength. The current region lies close to the 50% retrace of the 116.84-127.32 rise, also potentially offering some support. Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to negate this positive structure.

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Further weakness towards 104.00 anticipated.

EUR/JPY continues to edge lower, after testing old channel support as resistance yesterday, in the hourly timeframe. Short-term structure suggests further weakness is possible towards 104.00, where a degree of support is possible. In fact the 104.00 region is key to maintaining the rising trend seen since 100.76. If this cannot be maintained then a return to 100.76 will become more likely. Back over 106.74 is required to neutralise the outlook in the short-term. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook bullish. We will monitor the price action close to 104.00 to try and determine if a EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP short-term buying opportunity will present itself.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Look to see how the 104.00 region fares.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Hourly channel contains rate for now.

EUR/GBP managed to find a footing back over daily trend-line support yesterday, although this short-term strength was followed by a return to the old trend-line support. Yesterdays failure to remain over old trend-line

support now favours a return to weakness. Such a move will be assisted by the perception of Sterling as a safe haven, assuming the yields of 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds can stay above 6.00%. Also noted is a possible channel in the hourly timeframe, with scope now for a return to the support of this channel, currently near 0.8450. In the nearterm, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the outlook once again. In the meantime, a lower high is sought for a further extension lower. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range. In the meantime, scope is seen for a near-term return to 0.8486 and then lower.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Approaches the 1.2500 region once again.

EUR/CHF continues to edge higher back towards the 1.2500 region. It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Positive for the short-term.

Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators). This also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling. However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher around key level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

1844. Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years! A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

13

Key support at $26.0700.

Silver has developed a short-term recovery from its previous swing low at 26.0700. However, macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.5125)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

(32.3135)

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

15 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15