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Industry Analysis
Q1 2011
The drugstores industry, part of the larger food and staples retailing industry, is a high-volume, low-margin business, with cutthroat competition. This is a mature industry and non-cyclical in nature. The staples offered at these stores make the industry non-cyclical. Drugstores can be independent, chains, part of supermarkets, and included in mass merchandiser stores. Independent mom-and-pop drugstores are on the decline. Typically, chains are drugstore owners with four or more stores. Chains average over 8,500 square feet per store, generate more than $5 million in revenue, and 60 percent of revenue is from pharmacy sales. Independent drugstores average 3,000 square feet per store and $2 million in revenue, with 90 percent of revenue derived from pharmacy sales. The drugstores industry is much more concentrated than the grocery stores industry. In 2008, 37,804 traditional drugstores existed, which are stores not part of larger stores such as supermarket superstores and mass merchant supercenters, and not mail order operations. Of the traditional stores, 20,884 were part of chains, with the top-three (CVS, Walgreens, and Rite Aid) dominating this landscape. The number of all drugstore outlets, including mass merchants and supermarkets with pharmacies, in 2008 was 53,658. But despite its concentrated nature relative to grocery stores, this segment is not very concentrated compared to most industries, and is highly competitive. The total number of outlets does not include one of the fastest growing segments of mail order pharmacy sales, which consisted of almost 22 percent of prescription drug revenue in 2008. Revenue. In 2008, revenue for traditional drugstores grew 3.1 percent to $203.8 billion, with chains growing 2.9 percent to $104.1 billion in revenue. Of the $253.6 billion (3.5 billion scripts) in prescription drug sales in 2008, up 1.8 percent from 2007, traditional drugstore chains accounted for 41.1 percent of revenue (46.6 percent of scripts dispensed), traditional independent drugstores accounted for 17.2 percent (21.8 percent), supermarkets 10.2 percent (13.6 percent), mass merchants 9.8 percent (11.3 percent), and mail order 21.7 percent (6.7 percent). It is interesting to note that the mail order numbers reflect that each script represents larger amounts of prescription drugs per order. Cost Structure. Many of the same costs that apply to grocery stores also apply to drugstores, which is a detail-oriented, labor-intensive business. Close to half of operating expenses are labor expenses, including wages, benefits, and recruiting and training in a high-turnover industry. Other significant costs include rent, renovations, store equipment, stocking and loading equipment, inventory management equipment, and energy costs. One notable difference from grocery stores is that their nonunion labor force gives them a competitive advantage in labor cost and flexibility. However, the advantages of nonunion employees might be all but negated by the high cost of pharmacists. The rapid growth in prescriptions written has made pharmacists scarce, which is accelerating wage growth and recruitment costs.
Industry Trends
The drugstores industry is going through dramatic changes, placing even greater competitive pressures on this already cutthroat industry. Not the least of these challenges is the onslaught of mass merchants supercenters into the drugstore realm. The largest drugstore chains are increasingly entering each others territory, and see more competition from not only mass merchants, but also supermarkets and mail-order options. Drugstores are fighting back with larger store sizes, consolidation, superior service, and private label brands. Making operations more efficient has become essential for players in this industry, which has spurred use of new technology. Many long-term societal trends such as the aging population and the new Medicare prescription drug plan might benefit drugstores. Trends, opportunities, and threats in this industrys environment follow: Supercenters Attack Mass merchant supercenters are proliferating, and revenue from drugstore items are growing with them. Mass merchants such as Wal-Mart have cost advantages over traditional drugstore formats. Wal-Mart uses its grocery and drug offerings to woo customer traffic. This allows supercenters to sell groceries on much thinner profit margins. Mass merchants have other cost advantages over traditional drugstores, such as economies of scale and inexpensive locations. Most importantly, Wal-Marts size gives it buying power over vendors as never seen before in retail, allowing it to negotiate merchandise costs, helping to keep prices low for its customers. Drugstore Competition Heightens After a decade of consolidation, culminating in three giants in the drugstore segment (i.e., CVS, Walgreen, and Rite Aid), the big-three chains are now trolling on each others turf and the turf of other large chains. They are often clustered together in the same neighborhood. Competition is also coming from supermarkets and mass merchant supercenters. Mass merchant supercenters are the low-cost operators, so their pharmacies attract cash-paying customers without insurance. They will benefit during times when employers are pulling back on health plans, forcing consumers to directly purchase more prescriptions. Mail-order operations are also booming for prescriptions. Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) use mail-order pharmacies, and often use online ordering techniques, to fill prescriptions for those with regular prescription use. Drugstores Respond Drugstores are fighting back by offering an expanded selection of food and general merchandise, requiring larger store sizes. This increases the economies of scale of each store and creates higher margin opportunities. Also, companies are becoming larger through acquisitions, and despite being more concentrated than many food and staples retailing industry segments, consolidation opportunities abound even for the largest chains. Larger firms allow for economies of scale and buying power that the mass merchants, and increasingly larger supermarkets, enjoy. Although drugstore chains have been reorganizing, becoming larger and stripping out costs to become more efficient, mass merchant supercenters have a cost advantage that cannot be completely matched by the drugstore model. Like supermarkets, drugstores are offering private-label brands, whose OTC drugs benefit from their credibility. They further take advantage of their credibility with newly expanding in-store clinics, serving those without a regular physician. Long-Term Trends Affecting Drugstores As Baby Boomers continue the inevitable march toward their senior years, drug use is expected to grow at increasing rates. The new Medicare prescription-drug coverage law passed in November 2003 was phased in and took full effect in 2006. Healthcare reform was passed in March 2010, which will expand Medicare prescription-drug coverage, as well as result in more people with healthcare insurance coverage. These new laws mean that a large group of previously uninsured people now and will soon have coverage for prescriptions. This converts a large part of the cash-paying, high-margin customer base into third-party-paying, low-margin customers. Although this could be bad news for drugstores, it could result in an opportunity to regain customers lost to mass merchants. It will certainly encourage more prescription drug purchases from those delaying the purchase of unaffordable drug regimens. In the much longer-term, however, this development could potentially hurt all pharmacy outlets. As drug prices rise, the government might start exerting price pressures on participants across-the-board, from pharmaceutical companies to retailers. Use of generic drugs is growing and reshaping the drugstores industry. They offer retailers higher margins over brand drugs, and customer and third-party payers receive substantial discounts. The pharmacist shortage is making pharmacies
increasingly more expensive to operate. Many drugstores are responding to this problem by cutting pharmacy hours, intensifying recruitment efforts, and increasing the number of technicians assisting pharmacists. Efficiency is Paramount The drugstores industry has always been a high-volume, low-margin business. But the recent rise in competition from mass merchants and each other has made margins thinner than ever before. For the sake of survival, drugstore players need to remain lean and efficient. Most well managed companies in this industry are implementing efficient customer response (ECR) programs, which are efforts to streamline distribution, forge stronger partnerships with suppliers, and lower prices. Many retailers, particularly Wal-Mart, are employing radio frequency identification (RFID) tags to reduce costs. The pharmacist shortage has prompted drugstores to invest in automatic dispensing equipment, which are robotics for fulfilling prescriptions. Computer information systems and workflow software are being used to help handle the increased number of prescriptions and to serve customers better. Mergers and Acquisitions. Increased competition has caused further consolidation of drugstores. In July 2004, CVS acquired 1,260 Eckerd stores from JC Penney for $2.15 billion. Then in June 2006, CVS acquired 700 Osco and Sav-On drugstores from the Albertsons implosion for $2.9 billion. Rite Aid beefed up its position among the big-three by agreeing in August 2006 to acquire 1,860 Brooks and Eckerd (the stores not acquired by CVS in 2004) stores from the Jean Coutu Group for $2.55 billion in cash and stock plus $850 million of assumed debt, for a total of $3.4 billion. Perhaps the most direct response to outside competition for traditional drugstores is CVS (now CVS Caremark) acquiring PBMgiant Caremark Rx (now Caremark Pharmacy Services). In mid-2007, CVS purchased Caremark Rx for $26.5 billion, which could usher in a new era for drugstores. Drugstores are benefiting from their drug-savvy credibility by offering in-store clinics. These clinics serve the 30% of the U.S. population that doesnt have a regular physician. Each clinic is staffed with a nurse practitioner, and handles minor medical conditions. In September 2006, CVS acquired MinuteClinic, the largest retail-based health clinic in the US. In May 2007, Walgreen acquired TakeCare Health Systems. Both plan on expanding their in-store clinics, but Wal-Mart also plans to expand the number of its in-store clinics.
General Litigation/ Undetermined Employment/ Discrimination & Harassment: Racial Employment/ Wage and Hour Intellectual Property/ Trademark Infringement Employment/ Wrongful Termination Business & Trade Practices/Breach of Contract Employment/
Pending
650149
1000616
12/21/2010
Pending
650157
1000616
12/13/2010
Pending
650754
1000616
09/01/2010
12/09/2010
Pending
650685
1000616
12/08/2010
12/08/2010
Pending
647656
1000616
12/01/2010
12/03/2010
Pending
650160
1000616 Wage and Hour Employment/ 1000616 Wage and Hour Employment/ 1000616 Wage and Hour Products & Services/ 1000616 Product Usage 09/22/2010
11/23/2010
Pending
650183
11/23/2010
Pending
650191
11/23/2010
Pending
650088
11/08/2010
Dismiss ed
643660
1000616
09/01/2007
10/12/2010
Settled
$77,600,000
606446
1010736
Products & Services/ Third Party Liability Employment/ Discrimination & Harassment: Racial Securities/Breach of Fiduciary Duties: Class Action 01/02/2003
08/19/2007
Award
$25,800,000
608890
1010736
03/07/2007
Settled
$24,500,000
615703
1000616
12/21/2006
Settled
$20,000,000
419122
1000616
03/17/2002
03/17/2006
Settled
$19,750,000
623459
Albertson's LLC Caremark Rx, Inc. Walgreen Co. Walgreen Co C&K Express, LLC
3636903
634607
1064564
Employment/ Discrimination & Harassment: Racial Securities/Derivative Shareholder Action Products & Services/ Third Party Liability Business & Trade Practices/Sales Practices Management & Strategy/ ERISA violations
01/02/1995
03/28/2008
Settled
$8,900,000
05/26/2006
Settled
$7,500,000
609220
1010736
10/18/2007
Award
$6,000,000
637221
1010736
03/23/2010
Settled
$5,970,000
645722
7061290
10/29/2010
Settled
$3,000,000
Composite
Percent Change
Percent Change
Competitors
Top 6 U.S. Public Companies Sorted by Market Cap
Ticker Company Name CVS Caremark Corporation Market Cap (in Millions) 44,883.59 Sales (in Millions) 98,729.00 Employees Sales Per Employee Net Income Price Earnings Ratio
CVS
295,000
334,674.57
3,696.00
13.07
WAG
Walgreen Co
39,027.38
67,420.00
244,000
276,311.47
2,091.00
18.72
RAD
Rite Aid Corp. Liberator Medical Holdings Inc Assured Pharmacy Inc My Healthy Access Inc
1,112.80
25,669.12
97,500
263,272.99
-506.68
-1.92
LBMH
56.16
25.82
APHY
0.18
13.92
39
357,012.48
MYHA
0.01
0.69
55
12,527.27
-5.97
-0.01
10
CVS
WAG
RAD
MYHA
S&P Industry
$3,541.00M
$3,997.00M
$1,594.39M
$1.1M
$46.88M
$1,853.00M
$1,221.00M
$171.74M
$(1.02)M
$17.85M
$370M
$273M
$124.98M
$0.04M
$3.92M
$1,483.00M
$948M
$46.76M
$(1.06)M
$13.94M
11
CVS Caremark Corporation Nonoperating Income (Expense) Special items Pretax Income Income Taxes - Total Minority Interest Income Before Extraordinary Items Dividends - Preferred Income Before Extraordinary Items Available for Common Common Stock Equivalents - Dollar Savings Income Before Extraordinary Items Adjusted for Common Stock Equivalents Net Income (Loss) $820M
Walgreen Co
Average Industry
$820M $0M
$580M $0M
$(79.07)M $2.38M
$(1.15)M $0M
$7.99M $0M
$580M
$(81.45)M
$(1.15)M
$7.99M
$0M
$0M
$0M
$0M
$0M
$820M $809M
$580M $580M
$(81.45)M $(79.07)M
$(1.15)M $(1.15)M
$7.99M $7.92M
12
Assets Cash and Short Term Investments Accounts Receivable/Debtors-Total Inventories - Total Current Assets - Other Total Current Assets - Total Property, Plant and Equipment - Total (Net) Intangible Assets - Total Assets - Other - Total Assets - Total Liabilities and Net Worth Debt in Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities - Other Current Liabilities - Total Long-Term Debt - Total Long-Term Debt Due in One Year Account Payable/Creditors Trade Deferred Taxes - Balance Sheet Liabilities - Other Income Taxes Payable $36,018.00M $61,713.00M $3,184.00M $27,044.00M $1,150.07M $7,815.97M
$983M
$2,062.00M
$122.04M
$0M
$17.74M
$5,111.00M $10,585.00M
$2,472.00M $7,909.00M
$974.47M $3,330.80M
$0.02M $0.02M
$46.84M $111.27M
$660M $17,339.00M
$220M $12,663.00M
$100.04M $4,527.36M
$0M $0.05M
$5.41M $181.26M
$8,356.00M
$11,197.00M
$2,138.54M
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$4,162.00M
$4,955.00M
$1,292.35M
$1.29M
$54.18M
$0M $1,175.50M
13
CVS Caremark Corporation Minority Interest Preferred/Preference Stock (Capital) - Total Common/Ordinary Equity Total Common/Ordinary Stock (Capital) Treasury Stock - Total (All Capital) Capital Surplus/Share Premium Reserve Retained Earnings Shareholders Equity-Total $35M
Walgreen Co $0M
$0M
$0M
$159.26M
$0M
$0M
$36,637.00M
$14,363.00M
$(2,167.48)M
$(3.97)M
$316.15M
$16M
$80M
$890.32M
$0.06M
$0.59M
$9,085.00M
$3,594.00M
$0M
$0M
$75.49M
$1,389.00M
$1,030.00M
$534.24M
$0.02M
$14.17M
$4,035.00M
$3,744.00M
$(325.06)M
$(1.81)M
$53.56M
$(1,069.00)M $2,548.00M
$(1,274.00)M $1,014.00M
$(120.49)M $183.86M
$(0.33)M $0.26M
$(21.31)M $24.61M
$439M
$541M
$0M
$0M
$5.41M
$(3,232.00)M
$(2,677.00)M
$397.11M
$2.11M
$(23.95)M
14
-1.92 0.04
0.75
6.53 7.76
5.06 7.04
0.53 2.77
7.95 0
6.63 0
2.64 0
7.39 5.53
0 39.2
0 37.02
0 2
5.53 39.14
38.71
37.25
-34.73
-2,519.19
35.93
15
Coverage & Leverage Ratio CVS Caremark Corporation Times Interest earned (TTM) EBITDA/Interest(TTM) EBITDA Capex/Interest (TTM) Debt to Capital (MRQ) Debt to Equity (MRQ) Debt (avg. 12 mos.) to EBITDA (TTM) Free CF (TTM) to Total Debt (avg. 12 mos.) Liquidity & Activity Ratios CVS Caremark Corporation Current Ratio (MRQ) Quick Ratio (MRQ) AR Turnover (MRQ) Inventory Turnover AP Turnover 1.49 0.52 18.04 7.36 18.62 Walgreen Co 1.55 0.56 27.09 6.24 9.59 My Healthy Access Inc 0.01 0.01 29.68 28.14 1.01 10.82 13.53 Walgreen Co 41.22 53.09 My Healthy Access Inc -18.56
Average Industry
0.35 1.28
15.57 19.49
1.49
0.51
10
-0.25
1.12
18.75
91.49
3.2
-196.62
0.34
Average Industry
16
2011-03-24
Walgreens Company and drugstore.com, inc. announced a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which Walgreens will acquire drugstore.com in a transaction with a total enterprise value of approximately $409 million. Under the terms of the merger agreement, drugstore.com stockholders will receive $3.80 in cash for each share of stock, which represents an equity value of approximately $429 million. The price per share is a premium of approximately 102% over drugstore.comaCOs 30-day average closing stock price, and a premium of approximately 113% over the closing price of drugstore.comaCOs common stock on March 23, 2011, the last trading day prior to announcement. As a result of the merger, Walgreens will acquire the drugstore.com website in addition to other websites operated by the company.
2011-03-09
CVS Caremark Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share on the Common Stock of the Corporation, payable May 3, 2011 to holders of record on April 22, 2011.
Catalyst Health Solutions, Inc. To Acquire Walgreens Co.'s Pharmacy Benefit Management Subsidiary,
2011-03-09
Catalyst Health Solutions, Inc. announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Walgreen Co. to acquire Walgreens' pharmacy benefit management (PBM) subsidiary, Walgreens Health Initiatives, Inc. (WHI), for $525 million in cash. Catalyst will enter into an agreement with Walgreens to provide PBM services for WalgreensaCO 244,000 active employees in addition to retirees and dependents, as well as an agreement to administer the Walgreens Prescription Savings Club.
2011-02-23
Liberator Medical Holdings, Inc. announced that it expects revenues to continue to grow over the next three quarters of fiscal 2011 due to its advertising and marketing programs.
CVS Caremark Corporation Issues FY 2011 EPS Guidance Below Analysts' Estimates
2011-02-03
CVS Caremark Corporation announced that for fiscal 2011, it expects Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations expected to be in the range of $2.72-$2.82 and GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations expected to be in the range of $2.52-$2.62. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting the Company to report adjusted EPS of $2.89 and GAAP diluted EPS of $2.74 for fiscal 2011.
2011-01-24
CVS Caremark Corporation announced the next stage of its transition plan outlined during its Annual Shareholders meeting last year. After the successful transition of day-to-day responsibilities for the Company's retail operations earlier this month, the Company has announced that Larry Merlo, President and Chief Operating Officer of CVS Caremark, will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) effective March 1, 2011. Thomas M. Ryan will remain Non-Executive Chairman until his retirement at the Company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders in May of 2011.
17
2011-01-13
Walgreen Company announced that it has declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share, a 27.3% increase over the year-ago dividend. The dividend is payable March 12, 2011, to shareholders of record February 18, 2011.
Rite Aid Corporation Lowers High End Of Prior FY 2011 Revenue Guidance To A Range In Line With Analysts' Estimates; Lowers FY 2011 Earnings Guidance; Lowers FY 2011 Same Store Sales Guidance
2010-12-16
Rite Aid Corporation announced that based on its third quarter 2010 results and its lower expectation for same store sales in the fourth quarter of 2010, the Company lowered its fiscal 2011 guidance for sales and Adjusted EBITDA and increased fiscal 2011 guidance for net loss. Sales are now expected to be between $25.0 billion and $25.2 billion with same store sales expected to range from a decrease of 1.5% to a decrease of 0.9%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $815 million and $855 million. Net loss is expected to be between $655 million or $0.74 per diluted share and $525 million or $0.60 per diluted share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts on were expecting the Company to report revenue of $25.2 billion, EBITDA of $815 million, net profit of $(489) million and EPS of $(0.56) for fiscal 2011.
Liberator Medical Holdings, Inc. To Restate Financial Results For Non-Cash Adjustments
2010-12-10
Liberator Medical Holdings, Inc. announced that it would restate the Company's previously issued unaudited financial statements for the interim periods ended December 31, 2009, March 31, 2010, and June 30, 2010, to comply with certain accounting guidance that became effective for the Company on October 1, 2009. The changes are to non-cash items and will not affect the Company's reporting income, operating income, operating expenses, total assets, or cash position for the three quarters to be restated. The restatement resulted from the Company's reevaluation of the accounting treatment of certain convertible notes issued by the Company to a single investor in May and October 2008. The notes were converted into the Company's common stock in May and October 2010, respectively. The notes contained embedded anti-dilution provisions that could have led to adjustments in the conversion price of the notes if the Company had issued additional shares of common stock or like securities at a price per share less than both the conversion price then in effect and $0.75, which the Company did not do at any time after the notes were issued.
Assured Pharmacy, Inc. Receives Gross Proceeds Of $300,000 From Sale Of Convertible Debentures And Warrants
2010-12-08
Assured Pharmacy Inc announced that it has sold in a private placement to an accredited investor a 12.5% senior convertible debenture for an aggregate principal amount of $300,000 (before deducting expenses and fees related to the private placement). The debentures are convertible into shares of the Company's common stock at an initial conversion price of $0.008 per share, subject to adjustment. As part of the private placement, the investor received a warrant to purchase 45,000,000 shares of the Company's common stock. The warrant is exercisable for a period of three years from the date of issuance at an initial exercise price of $0.0096, subject to adjustment. The investor may exercise the warrant on a cashless basis if the shares of common stock underlying the Warrant are not then registered pursuant to an effective registration statement. The funds received from the investor will be directed to the continued development of the Company's business plan and general working capital purposes.
Rite Aid Corporation Raises FY 2011 Net Profit Guidance; Narrows FY 2011 EBITDA Guidance; Lowers FY 2011 Revenue Guidance; Lowers FY 2011 Same Store Sales Guidance
2010-09-23
Rite Aid Corporation lowered its fiscal 2011 outlook and expects sales to be between $25.0-$25.4 billion, with same store sales expected to range from a decrease of 1.5% to flat and Adjusted EBITDA (which is reconciled to net loss on the attached table) is expected to be between $875-$950 million. Net loss to be between $400-$590 million or a loss per diluted share (EPS) of $0.46 to $0.67. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts on were expecting the Company to report revenue of $25.3 billion, EBITDA of $843 million net profit of $(426) million and EPS of $(0.48) for fiscal 2011.
18
2010-08-16
Liberator Medical Holdings, Inc. announced that it believes that it is well positioned to continue to grow its sales and improve profitability over the long term.
19