Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2012
Management Functions Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences Module for Intro. to Business Administration
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sabri ERDEM Department of Business Administration
Decision Making
Modeling Concept
Verbal Mathematical Set of points that have equal distance (radius) from a certain point (center). Verbal Mathematical
Modeling Concept
Individuals consume more goods and services when increase in revenue. C = a + bYd
X2+y2=r2
Graphical
Graphical
02.01.2012
Quantitative Methods
Stochastic Methods
Situations where next stage is probabilistic Statistical Methods
Stochastic Methods
Descriptive Statistics Data Analysis
Regression Trend Analysis
Deterministic Methods
Situations where next stage is certain Decision making under certainty
Deterministic Methods
Linear Programming Integer Programming Network Analysis
CPM/PERT Shortest Path Maximum/minimum Flow Transportation and Assignment
Descriptive Statistics
Frequency Table Histogram
Freshman
132
2,53
,507
,090
2,35
2,71
Junior
148
2,38
,599
,049
2,28
2,48
Senior
120
2,06
,639
,058
1,94
2,17
Total
300
2,27
,630
,036
2,20
2,34
02.01.2012
Crosstabs
Dept*Motivation Crosstab Before Midterm Exam Motivation Total Low Count BA % Dept % Total Count Dept ECN % Dept % Total Count THM % Dept % Total Count Total % Dept. % Total 52 52,0% 17,3% 34 34,0% 11,3% 17 17,0% 5,7% 133 44,3% 44,3% Med 18 18,0% 6,0% 50 50,0% 16,7% 35 35,0% 11,7% 103 34,3% 34,3% High 30 18,0% 10,0% 16 16,0% 5,3% 48 48,0% 16,0% 64 21,3% 21,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 100 100,0% 33,3% 300 100,0% 100,0%
9,295
4,648
12,621
,000
109,371
297
,368
118,667
299
Y=b0+b1X1+...+bnXn
Y: Dependent variable Xi: Independent variables bi: Regression coefficients
Correlation Coefficient
Forecasting
Predicting future Time series analysis
Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Seasonal Adjustments Trend Analysis
Qualitative Analysis
Delphi Method Judgemental Analysis
02.01.2012
Y=b0+b1Xt+...+bnXt-n+1
Y: Dependent var Xt: Independent var bi: Regression coefficients
Decision Trees
Calculation of expected values in case of probabilistic/uncertain situations Making decision by induction backward
2005-10 (1) 10 2005-11 (2) 12 2005-12 (3) 18 2006-1 (4) 2006-2 (5) 2006-3 (6) 2006-4 (7) 2006-5 (8) 2006-7 (9) 16 15 14 8 7 10
http://www.treeplan.com/images/treeplan_large_2009-11-06_13-22-46.gif
02.01.2012
Linear Programming
Objective Function (Maximization/Minimization)
02.01.2012
Integer Programming
Linear programming where variables are integers
Possible variables: Patients, cars, engines, tourists, households...
02.01.2012
Network Representation
Demand
Capacity
Demand
http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/models/unit/network/subunits/special_cases/transportation.html
http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/models/unit/network/subunits/special_cases/assignment.html
02.01.2012
Dynamic Programming
Optimization by Best-of-Best
Stages States Decisions Optimal policy Transition functions
Non-Linear Programming
Objective Function and/or constraints are not linear
Quadratic Programming Polynomial Programming Trigonometric Models Expoential/Logarithmic Models Mixed Models
Divide&Conquer Method
Other Methods
Simulations Fuzzy Logic Artificial Neural Networks Evolutionary/Genetic Algorithms Simulated Annealing Ant Colony Optimization
02.01.2012
Simulation
Simulating decision making environment Monte Carlo Simlation Advanced Simlation Tools
Arena ProModel Siman GPSS ....
Fuzzy Logic
Evolutionary Algorithms
Biological Inspired Method Utilizing genetics for problem solving Operators
Cross Over Mutation New Generation ....
02.01.2012
Kaynak: http://www.ewh.ieee.org/soc/es/May2001/14/
Simulated Annealing
10