Assignment #1

Submitted By Submitted To Topic Abdullah Jawad Hassan Raza Identification of marketing program 13th Oct, 2011 MBA (2011-2013) Management Studies Department

Date of Submission

Government College and University lahore

President Obama said the U.S. will withdraw 10,000 troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year and another 23,000 over the next 14 months with security to be handed over entirely to Afghan forces by 2014. US Troops Withdrawal from Afghanistan has greater effect on the Pakistan in different perspective.

The Pakistani government and people are keenly awaiting a resolution as the eight-year war in Afghanistan had a very bad impact on peace and security inside Pakistan. The country today appears preoccupied with an existential struggle; it battles insurgencies on its north-western tribal belt that borders eastern Afghanistan, whereas its people reel from almost daily terrorist strikes on soft targets within its cities. No regional or international actor, for that matter, is more likely than Pakistan to suffer the full impact of how the coalition war effort against the Taliban unfolds in Afghanistan. Pakistan wants to see foreign troops leave, as their presence has increased its archrival India's influence with Kabul while diminishing its own. The need for Pakistan to regain its influence over the Taliban in order to ensure Pakistani dominance over its own territory and much of Afghanistan has to be a priority for Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) organization. Islamabad has little option but to strive to regain such control in order to reverse the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan and to improve Pakistani ability to withstand a forthcoming crisis, even war, with India . There is evidence that many in Islamabad are convinced that such a war is imminent. The strategic ascent of the PRC and the ensuing effective encirclement of India by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and its allies (east to west: Myanmar-Bangladesh-PRC-Nepal-Pakistan) will ultimately compel India to attempt a strategic breakout. In an effort to contain India , the PRC is increasing pressure by supporting Maoist and secessionist movements in northeastern India , as well as empowering Pakistan to intensify the ISIs support for the jihadist insurgency in Kashmir . For its part, India is intensifying support for Pushtun and Baluchi insurgencies inside Pakistan from facilities in Afghanistan . A vicious cycle of wars-by-proxy is rapidly escalating. The PRC is thus instigating crises which might possibly lead to a wider war in which Pakistan will inevitably be involved. Under such conditions, it is vital for the ISI to ensure Islamabad s control over the strategically crucial terrain and pertinent population. The withdrawal of the NATO force from Afghanistan has regional implications, with some in the neighborhood, above all India, fearing that the influence of its neighbor and rival Pakistan could grow if the Taliban is able to regain power in Afghanistan. Pakistan, for its part, is unhappy over the degree to which India has gained influence in Afghanistan since the Taliban's ouster in 2001.

With nearly 100,000 troops in Afghanistan today, US transports 40 percent of its supplies through Pakistan. The US had plans to eventually bring it down to 25 percent. Going by a rough yardstick of supplies being directly proportional to the number of troops, with a 33 percent reduction in troops, the US military would theoretically be in a position to bring the percent of supplies over Pakistani soil down to a single digit. An often ignored aspect of this reduced US dependency on Pakistan for military supplies in Afghanistan: the financial losses it will bring to the Pakistan. Pakistan army has benefitted to the tune of approximately $500 million per year by allowing these supplies to transit through Pakistan. This has created vested interests along the supply chain which will be hurt by this dismantling of the political economy along the supply route. It will create further social and political unrest and fuel more anti-American sentiment inside Pakistan.
NATO withdrawal from its western neighbor will impact Islamabads national security interests. Pakistan would like to see an exit of Western forces from Afghanistan but fears that a pullout, which conflicts with Islamabads needs, can aggravate cross-border insurgencies. In other words, a withdrawal requires that the United States and Pakistan not only sort out the pre-existing problems between them, but also have a meeting of minds on how to move forward neither of which is likely anytime soon.

The situation in Pakistans tribal territories has become a growing concern, with coalition troop withdrawal approaching and transition of security to Afghan forces slowly gaining momentum. Pakistan launched offensives against the militants in Bajaur, and in Swat. Millions remain displaced to this date. Now, there are new pressures to launch an offensive in North Waziristan. The drone policy, killing thousands of Pakistanis , mostly women ,children, and defenseless people. Pakistan seeks a bigger say in any settlement in Afghanistan while allowing increased terrorist attacks on Indian interests there as well as in Kashmir