TERM REPORT

GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECT IN SOUTH ASIA

PREPARED FOR: SIR ASIF KHAN

PREPARED BY: ABDUL WAHEED (11665) OMEIR AHMED KHAN (11293) USMAN TARIQ (12090) AYESHA SHERWANI (11408) ZARA IQBAL (11335)

DECEMBER 22, 2011

Letter of Transmittal

December 22, 2011 Sir Asif Khan Business Communication - 2 Institute Of Business Management, Karachi. Dear Sir, Subject: Report on Global Warming and its effect on South Asia This report is in context to the prevailing threat of global warming that is affecting south Asia. It details the different types of affects that global warming has and the various factors that cause it. However this report does not include the affects of global warming beyond south Asia as it was beyond the scope and boundary of this report. This report should be considered by you as it directly relates to a problem that is threatening your country and the countries which are your neighbors. This report should be shared with as many people as possible so that they to may become aware of the threat of global warming.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

In the name of Allah, the most Beneficent and the most Merciful who gave us strength and knowledge to complete this report. We would like to appreciate the work of every member of this group who worked tirelessly to search for data regarding the topic also we like to thank our teacher MR. Asif Khan who gave us the opportunity to choose which ever topic we pleased and also gave us full autonomy over it. In addition we all would also like to thank our parents for providing us with opportunity of studying in a prestigious institute like IOBM.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ....................................

Main body3

Bangladesh..7

Pakistan9

Economies cannot adapt to climate change quickly..10

To solve this the following measures can be taken.10

Conclusion.

Recommendation..

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Nowadays the term 'Global Warming' is a household phrase. Global warming is the result of the build-up of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. Due to these gases the whole world is threatened because the sea level is rising day in and day out. Beside all this South Asia is also a threatened part of the world due to Global Warming. Karachi which is much below the sea level is among the most threatened city in the South Asia also Pakistans agriculture is also threatened due to Global Warming, and since Pakistans economy depends upon agriculture therefore the economy of Pakistan is also in danger.

The main topics that we have discussed through this report are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Global Warming Observed Effects of Global Warming Countries at risk Effects on South Asia How will Pakistan be affected by this? Dangers to Pakistan Agriculture How to proceed Recommendations.

In this report we have also discussed various findings of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and IPCC Assessment Report. We think that it is the high time to take notice of this current situation by Pakistani authorities in order to give a healthy environment to our future generations. In case of south Asia the melting of the ice in the Himalaya Mountains causes flash flooding in various parts of India and Pakistan. This is causing economical damage as well in terms of

lost crops due to flooding and the damage done by floods to infra structure. There are various ways in which this can be countered which are as follows: Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infrastructural changes Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infrastructural changes

These measures and others if implemented can reduce the harmful effects of climate change substantially and can save an economy millions of dollars in damages that global warming and its effects cause each year.

INTRODUCTION

Plan of Presentation:
This is an information report in which we have discussed about global warming and how the South Asia has been affected by Global Warming, effects of global warming on agriculture sector, how mountain regions would be affected by global warming and how tourism will be affected, also we have included the community action that have been taken, in this term report we have also included the steps that are necessary to counter this devastating problem of Global Warming. In this report we have also discussed about the catastrophes that have affected South Asia and what are the anticipated incidents that could occur.

Problem:
The problem that we have addressed in this term report is Global Warming and its devastating effects on the region of South Asia.

Purpose:
The purpose of this report is to inform our readers about the effects of Global Warming on South Asia so that they could gain the knowledge about the recent activity taking place in our region.

SCOPE:
This report includes Global Warming issues only in South Asia and specifically in Pakistan. It covers issues such as Affects of Global Warming on our industries, Forests, Glaciers and on our daily life. Report will also cover recommendations on how to improve on Global warming crisis. It does not cover affects on rest of the world countries such as Europe or America.

Methodology:
During study on Global warming, data was collected from Secondary research/sources such as Journals, Articles, Newspapers and Internet Sources. Secondary research (also known as desk research) involves the summary, collation and/or synthesis of existing research. We chose Secondary Research to collect data because to gather facts and figures through Primary Research was extremely difficult.

Main body
What is Global Warming: Nowadays the term 'Global Warming' is a household phrase. It is something we are reminded of occasionally in news bulletins reporting on the decline of a habitat, or freak weather conditions. But what can we actually understand about the phenomenon, and more importantly, how does it stand to affect us in the near future Global warming is the result of the build up of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. These gases reflect the suns rays back down to Earth's surface rather than letting them escape back into space as they would normally, heating the planet as a consequence. We need to have a certain quantity of these gases in the atmosphere otherwise our planet would become a frozen dessert. However, too high a volume and the planet keeps heating up, ultimately causing ice caps to melt and barren wastelands to form where there would have once been habitable terrain. Effects on South Asia: People in the South Asian part of Himalayas are effected by melting glaciers in the worlds highest mountain range which are swelling local lakes, triggering flash-flooding in the narrow valleys below. In 1994, a glacier-lake outburst in the Lunana region of Bhutan flooded a number of villages, endangering the lives of thousands of people. The burst of the Dudh Koshi Lake in Nepal in 1997 had similar repercussions. This trend, experts argue, will accelerate in the next half decade, creating social and economic problems not only for the villages in the Himalayan foothills but also for the entire South Asian region. Mountain regions are more sensitive to climate change than their rugged topography might suggest. A study by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) reveals that the temperature in the Himalayan region has risen by almost 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1970's. This shift in climate causes meltdown of snowfalls and glaciers - at the fastest rate in the world (50 feet/15 m per year in northern India) - even in winter, causing icy water to accumulate in lakes hedged by unstable dams of sediment and stone. As the lakes swell, the dams often burst, sending muddy streams down the narrow valleys. In addition to life and property including bridges, hydro-electric plants and tourist facilities the flood, laden with massive boulders and sediment, also devastates agricultural lands and irrigation systems in the valleys below. Experts warn that unless urgent action is taken, the frequency of these accidents will

increase dramatically in five to ten years time, with catastrophic consequences for people and property in this part of the Himalayas. UNEP scientists have surveyed more than 4,000 glaciers in Nepal and Bhutan and concluded that 20 glacial lakes in the Bhutanese Himalayas and 24 glacial lakes in Nepal pose a potential hazard. They warn that a number of lakes are still unexplored, especially in India (where most of the Himalayas lie), Pakistan, and Afghanistan. In order to make a comprehensive report, UNEP-ICIMODs (United Nations Environment Programme - International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) study will expand to all South Asian countries, including China, as well neighboring countries in central Asia. The Himalayan mountain range has the highest number of glaciers beyond the polar regions. Himalayan glacial lakes are the source of the major rivers in Asia that support about 2 billion people. Thus the meltdown of glaciers represents a danger not only to the immediate surroundings, but to neighboring countries as well. This August, fearing that water from a melting glacier in China could spill over into northern Indian territory, the authorities in the Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab evacuated thousands of people from high risk areas. A month earlier, a sudden release of floodwater from a hydroelectric project in Bhutan caused floods that endangered the lives of people in Assam and West Bengal. But flooding is not the only problem. The meltdown of Himalayan glaciers will ultimately reduce the amount of water in the glacier-fed rivers such as the Ganges, the Indus, and the Brahmaputra. On one hand, this will result in the decline of hydroelectric production across South Asia, triggering a crisis among those countries for whom this is the main source of energy. On the other, decreasing reserves of drinking water in the region will affect hundreds of millions of people, including those in New Delhi, Karachi and Calcutta. Fisheries, wildlife, and agriculture will also suffer. Disturbances to glacial lakes located in the sensitive border regions such as Kashmir, between India and Pakistan, may also have serious military consequences. Needless to say, as the population in the region grows, and as improving living standards and growing industrialization demand more water, this issue will become not only the focus of environmental and public health debates, but also the cause of serious political conflict among the countries of the subcontinent. Evaluating the possible consequences of global warming implies a parallel study of its origins as well of strategies to cope with it. Although some people believe the worldwide rise in temperature to be a naturally occurring climate variation, a growing number of scientists concur that it is an outcome of raised levels of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. As the earths surface absorbs the sun's rays, the heat bounces back, and a part of it ultimately escapes into space. On its way through the atmosphere the heat is absorbed by carbon dioxide and methane molecules; this process raises the temperature on the earth's surface. The more carbon dioxide there is in the atmosphere, the more heat is entrapped. This phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect, named for the way the glass panes of a greenhouse capture heat and warm the space inside.

The increasing amount of greenhouse gases is a result of the industrial nations incremental use of fossil fuels over the past two centuries. During the industrial revolution, in the mid 19th century, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 265 ppm (particles per million). Today, that level is 340 ppm. If the situation goes unchecked, scientists warn, the level could reach 600 ppm by 2050. As a result, average global temperatures are expected to rise 1.4 - 5.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. The only way to prevent this relentless warming would be to limit deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels, as well as to begin employing environmentally sound sources of energy.

Tourism affected Interestingly, while the business community as a whole is overwhelmingly opposed to international climate agreements, a number of business sectors are calling for more attention to global warming. Real-estate developers in many coastal vacation areas, as far apart as the Florida Keys and Cape Cod in the USA, are finding their properties less appealing to potential buyers as the rising sea level leads to fears of erosion and coastal storms. However in the Himalayan region there is a local and regional governments actively promote tourism to boost the economy, though a few are concerned about managing the environmental problems, such as increased wood-burning (and hence pollution), associated with rising tourist numbers. The economically depressed Himalayan communities are minor contributors to global warming and have no recourse to influence the developed countries responsible. Ultimately, the geographical grandeur that the tourists travel to experience will be threatened. Community action Increasing awareness may reduce the effects of global warming over time. However, for the people living in the foothills of the Himalayas, the meltdown of glacier lakes represents a problem that demands immediate attention. Some Himalayan villages have already installed primitive warning systems, such as a system of horns, designed to alert local residents in the case of flooding. Others have engaged in the construction of drainage works to prevent lake outbursts. A number of communities have started reforestation projects aimed at balancing the needs for fuel-wood on one hand and maintaining healthy forests on the other. These efforts by local authorities have been supported by a number of projects initiated by the United Nations to provide advice on recognizing potential dangers and immediate threats. Modern information tools such as Remote Sensing, topographic maps, aerial photographs and satellite images could play a crucial role in identifying potential risk areas

and monitoring the behavior of hazardous lakes. The United Nations agencies also promote the work of South Asian communities throughout the world, channeling material and financial aid from foreign donors. Economical By the end of the century nations in Southeast Asia will face debilitating economic loss due to global warming, according to a new study from the Asian Development Bank. Analyzing Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam the study found that they could suffer an annual loss of 6.7 percent ($230 billion dollars) in combined gross domestic product by 2100, more than double the global average which is estimated at a loss of 2.6 percent. Rice yields, the agricultural staple of Southeast Asia, will be hit particularly hard with the region suffering a 50 percent decline in rice yields by 2100. The study states that Southeast Asia is particularly susceptible to extreme weather, higher temperatures, and rising sea levels due to it extensive coastlines, economies dependent on agriculture, and rampant large-scale deforestation. Annual mean temperatures are expected Slash-and-burn agriculture in Indonesia. to rise an average of 4.8 degrees Celsius in the region by centurys end, if greenhouse gas emissions are not regulated. These countries need regional-level activity and it is needed now. If the action is delayed then south-east Asia will suffer much more than most other regions of the world. What's needed is better government policy, better co-ordination between agencies and between central and local government, and better research by all countries." Most of Southeast Asias carbon emissions are due to deforestation instead of the burning of fossil fuels. Eighty percent of Indonesias emissions, for example, are due to deforestation and conversion of peat lands, largely for palm oil plantations. Worldwide deforestation accounts for nearly 20 percent of emissions.

Regional cooperation is vital The Himalayas range over six South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan) as well as extending into China and Myanmar. The section lying in Indian territory covers fully or partly eleven states of India on the northern frontier. Therefore, enhanced cooperation with the United Nations is important but insufficient. The South Asian countries concerned must also establish a coordination that is lacking among them as well as with neighbouring regions in order to handle the crisis more effectively. It must start with closer collaboration between scientific and academic institutions who are studying the impact of changing climate on the behavior of glacial lakes in the Himalayan range. A system for the collective monitoring of glaciated regions and for maintaining a reliable alert system embracing all countries affected does not currently exist and must be created. For instance, earlier this year, when it was learned that a glacial lake in Tibet could burst and flood villages in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh. Chinese scientists had to use diplomatic channels to warn India about the danger. To avert potential tragedy, the response mechanism needs to be much more immediate and efficient across national borders. These efforts should be followed by long term intra- and inter-governmental planning involving diverse agencies responsible for conservation, construction, energy, foreign affairs, water, and tourism. They must be directed toward environmentally sound economic growth policies such as renewable energy technologies. Despite the enormity of the task ahead, the reality of Himalayan deglaciation points to the necessity of direct action in order for the South Asian countries to avert catastrophe in the years to come. In Pakistan's financial capital Karachi shows up on the list of world's mega-cities threatened by global warming. Other South Asian cities likely to come under rising sea water in the next 100 years include Mumbai, Kolkata and Dhaka.

Bangladesh: As a nation, Bangladesh has the most to worry about the effects of climate change in South Asia. A recent story in the Guardian talks about Bangladesh as "flood-prone" because of its geography. Situated across a vast delta where three great rivers join, Bangladesh is known to be flood-prone. Not only does it have monsoon rain to deal with, but the slow warming of the earth's atmosphere is releasing more water from Himalayan glaciers above the flatlands of Bangladesh. Climate change, say scientists, also means higher tides in the Bay of Bengal. The result is trillions more liters of water sloshing over the country, depositing billions of tons of sediment. Experts say a third of Bangladesh's coastline could be flooded if

the Bay of Bengal rises three feet in the next 50 years, displacing 20 million Bangladeshis from their homes and farms, according to Reuters. Across the region, warmer weather could cause more intense and more frequent cyclones and storm surges, leading to more salt water fouling waterways and farmlands, the experts said. Corp yields in South Asia could decrease up to 30 percent by the mid-21st century, they added. Bangladesh has taken the initiative by proposing a SAARC fund for climate change and allocated US$44 million for this purpose in its current fiscal year budget. "We want to find a common stand among the South Asian countries and will raise our voice together against the perils of climate changes," said Raja Devasish Roy, head of the Environment and Forest Ministry of Bangladesh, after opening the experts' meeting in Dhaka today. Devasish said industrialized countries were the most to blame for global warming and should compensate poorer nations by providing them grants -- not loans -- to fight the effects of climate change. While Bangladesh is admirably leading the charge to address the impact of climate change, it is important that the rest of South Asians, particularly India and Pakistan, join it to protect the planet in this noble effort. As part of this challenge, it is time for SAARC leaders to think of structural changes needed for a world without oil. The SAARC nations owe it to their future generations and the rest of the planet. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers. Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization and industrialization. It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of

hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

Pakistan: Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the following ways: Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers recede. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.

Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the decreased yields with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and food security will remain high. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera. The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns.

Economies cannot adapt to climate change quickly as: First, the rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000 years. Second, humans have altered the structure of many of the world's ecosystems. They have cut down forests, plowed soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated animals, introduced non-native species to many regions and intensively fished lakes, rivers and oceans. These relatively changes in the structure of the world's ecosystems have made them less resilient to automatically adapt to climate change. Third, pollution, as well as other indirect effects of the utilization of natural resources, has also increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

To solve this the following measures can be taken: 1. Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change 2. Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness 3. Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses 4. Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes 5. Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation 6. Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques 7. Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation 8. Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation 9. Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

RECOMMENDATIONS :
To solve this problem the following measures can be taken: Firstly, on a large scale:

10. Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change 11. Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness 12. Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses 13. Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes 14. Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation 15. Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques 16. Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation 17. Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation 18. Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

Individual steps that can be taken to reduce global warming to some extent:

If we all play our part, we can save our planet!

1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle Do your part to reduce waste by choosing reusable products instead of disposables. Buying products with minimal packaging (including the economy size when that makes sense for you)

will help to reduce waste. And whenever you can, recycle paper, plastic, newspaper, glass and aluminum cans. If there isn't a recycling program at your workplace, school, or in your community, ask about starting one. By recycling half of your household waste, you can save 2,400 pounds of carbon dioxide annually. 2. Use Less Heat and Air Conditioning Adding insulation to your walls and attic, and installing weather stripping or caulking around doors and windows can lower your heating costs more than 25 percent, by reducing the amount of energy you need to heat and cool your home. Turn down the heat while you're sleeping at night or away during the day, and keep temperatures moderate at all times. Setting your thermostat just 2 degrees lower in winter and higher in summer could save about 2,000 pounds of carbon dioxide each year. 3. Change a Light Bulb Wherever practical, replace regular light bulbs with compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs. Replacing just one 60-watt incandescent light bulb with a CFL will save you Rs. 2600 over the life of the bulb. CFLs also last 10 times longer than incandescent bulbs, use two-thirds less energy, and give off 70 percent less heat. If every South Asian family replaces one regular light bulb with a CFL, it would eliminate 90 billion pounds of greenhouse gases, the same as taking 7.5 million cars off the road. 4. Drive Less and Drive Smart Less driving means fewer emissions. Besides saving gasoline, walking and biking are great forms of exercise. Explore your community mass transit system, and check out options for carpooling to work or school. When you do drive, make sure your car is running efficiently. For example, keeping your tires properly inflated can improve your gas mileage by more than 3 percent. Every gallon of gas you save not only helps your budget, it also keeps 20 pounds of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

5. Buy Energy-Efficient Products When it's time to buy a new car, choose one that offers good gas mileage. Home appliances now come in a range of energy-efficient models, and compact florescent bulbs are designed to provide more natural-looking light while using far less energy than standard light bulbs. Avoid products that come with excess packaging, especially molded plastic and other packaging that can't be recycled. If you reduce your household garbage by 10 percent, you can save 1,200 pounds of carbon dioxide annually.

6. Use Less Hot Water Set your water heater at 120 degrees to save energy, and wrap it in an insulating blanket if it is more than 5 years old. Buy low-flow showerheads to save hot water and about 350 pounds of carbon dioxide yearly. Wash your clothes in warm or cold water to reduce your use of hot water and the energy required to produce it. That change alone can save at least 500 pounds of carbon dioxide annually in most households. Use the energy-saving settings on your dishwasher and let the dishes air-dry. 7. Use the "Off" Switch Save electricity and reduce global warming by turning off lights when you leave a room, and using only as much light as you need. And remember to turn off your television, video player, stereo and computer when you're not using them. It's also a good idea to turn off the water when you're not using it. While brushing your teeth, shampooing the dog or washing your car, turn off the water until you actually need it for rinsing. You'll reduce your water bill and help to conserve a vital resource. 8. Plant a Tree If you have the means to plant a tree, start digging. During photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen. They are an integral part of the natural atmospheric exchange cycle here on Earth, but there are too few of them to fully counter the increases in carbon dioxide caused by automobile traffic, manufacturing and other human activities. A single tree will absorb approximately one ton of carbon dioxide during its lifetime.

9. Encourage Others to Conserve Share information about recycling and energy conservation with your friends, neighbors and coworkers, and take opportunities to encourage public officials to establish programs and policies that are good for the environment. These 10 steps will take you a long way toward reducing your energy use and your monthly budget. And less energy use means less dependence on the fossil fuels that create greenhouse gases and contribute to global warming.