New Polymer Development based on advanced molecular physics theories and simulations A case study on commercialization of upstream technologies

developed at Universities
Solutions to both technological and marketing challenges must be synchronised if successful exploitation of mathematical based methods is to occur. Firstly, technological uncertainty is directly impacted by the radical nature of predicting polymer structure, the need for process innovations, and the multiple markets to which the technology may be applied. Thus, in addition to university R&D, commercialisation requires expensive process innovation and pilot plant development, which greatly exceed budgets of university grants. Also, the radical nature of the technology may initially require a "technology push" commercialisation strategy because many consumers in potential markets in the middle east, China and India do not perceive utility immediately. This is because of the need for process innovations in large scale production of polymers. Further, this is due to two reasons. a.) Mathematical methods are in the upstream position in the value chain. This upstream position means that the creation of a pilot plant, requires more than just a software product (and predictions) from the university research. It will depend on downstream design and process innovations, and may depend on complementary innovations. b.) Many customers have established product portfolio and production methods. When pursuing a substitution strategy, the valuation of properties is generally linked to that of the existing product. To displace existing product, process innovations are required to reduce costs and thus make a new polymer viable by producing in larger volumes and for lower cost. 2.) Secondly, the marketing challenges faced by theoretical polymer development tools are also formidable, leading to sustained market uncertainty and difficulty in demonstrating value in a specific application. Since the technology is of upstream nature, it does not deal directly with customers who actually convert polymer into products. This makes it difficult to assess customer needs and to manage market analysis. Direct customers are large chemical companies who must be convinced to design products incorporating the innovation. They may resist large scale introduction of the new method because it requires extra learning and effort on their part. When potential producers do agree to adopt the tools, it awaits process innovations which may take a decade. Moreover, the methods are not independent: they rely on related complementary innovations in new Catalysts. The need for these complementary innovations increases market uncertainty and delays the ability to demonstrate the value of the methods in specific applications. Discontinuity with prior products or processes could lead to greater market uncertainty and delays in adoption of the methods. As theoretical polymer tools call for a major shift in the design of a polymer and the production process, it overturns the technology and production competencies of major polymer producers. Technologies that are compatible with existing production and offer benefits which can be understood, observed and tried out without incurring high switching costs are more likely to be adopted.

Conversely, innovations that lack these attributes face adoption delays. Thus, market uncertainty is also increased by the absence of trialability. The key issue is no longer whether one can design new polymers and production processes, but when and how. Therefore the value offered by the technology must be clearly signaled and demonstrated. With chemical companies balancing the commercialization of technologies developed both within and outside, it becomes really important to develop complimentary innovations that will make university science a reality.