Forecast of the role and effectiveness of devolved government in Kenya specialists survey

This survey is done to inform a research report titled A forecast of the role and effectiveness of devolved government in Kenya; four scenarios and purely for academic purposes as part of the fulfilment for a degree (M Phil Futures Studies) at the University of Stellenbosch Institute for Futures Research.

Please complete electronic and email to janbezuidenhout@gmail.com or complete hard copy and fax back to +27 11 206 3014 attention Jan.

Your rating of the drivers and the indicators will provide inputs into the writing of the four scenarios. These will also be circulated if you wished to provide any written contributions before they are finalised for submission.

Title:

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Name and surname:

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Date:

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Respondents are welcome to remain anonymous, but especially if any written contributions were made, the author of the research report would like to make reference to the contributor/provide acknowledgement.

PART A: RATING OF DRIVERS

The following drivers that might have an impact on the role and effectiveness of devolved government in Kenya were identified. Kindly rate them in order of importance - placing a 1 next to the most important, 2 next to second most important, 3 next to third most important and so on. It could have a positive or a negative effect. Please first complete your ratings for 2012 and then proceed to each of the years 2017, 2022 and 2032 after that. Your opinion of the amount of influence the driver might have could change over the years as the context change based on your own forecast. You are also welcome to add to the list before you start your ratings. The idea is not to practice an exact science but to get a general feeling of what the most important factors will be. Driver Technical skills capacity in counties/cities/municipalities/towns Culture of centralisation and personalisation of political power Manipulation of ethnicity for political gain Regime change at election time Civil society and opposition party protection of the constitution Battle for political control takes precedence over set up of required technocratic structures Corruption Urbanisation Youth unemployment Resistance to change from current structures such as provincial administration Central government checks such as the senate and commission on revenue allocation Political will Project management of the transition to devolved government Contributions of United Nations and donor agencies Foreign technical assistance Availability of engineering skills, i.e. private sector as preferred employer above public sector causes a lack of engineering skills Technological advances Environmental factors (i.e. drought) Internal social unrest War Adequacy/sufficiency and promptness of central government transfers to counties and counties transfers to cities/municipalities and towns 2012 2017 2022 2032

PART B: RATING OF INDICATORS

The situation could differ from county to county. The selected counties are a sample of rural/urban, mono-ethnic/multi ethnic and high population/low population. In each case please feel free to add any additional counties you would like to rate if you feel it would make the sample more representative.

Kindly provide your answer to inform indicators for each of the years 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2032.
1. Do you think that the counties will have free and fair elections?
Year Please select Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 Yes/No 2017 Yes/No 2022 Yes/No 2032 Yes/No

Comments:

2. Kindly provide your opinion of what the ability of the counties assemblies will be to pass legislation
that creates an enabling environment for development by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance) Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 1-10 2017 1-10 2022 1-10 2032 1-10

Comments:

3. Kindly provide your opinion of what the ability of the county administrations (permanent staff) will be
to manage functions that are assigned to them through the 4th Schedule of the Constitution by rating it from 1-10? I.e. county roads, water and refuse removal services. (1=worst performance, 10=best performance) Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 1-10 2017 1-10 2022 1-10 2032 1-10

Comments:

4. Do you think the 15% minimum transfer of the total national budget is sufficient to cover the counties
required expenditure?

Year Please select Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu

2012 Yes/No

2017 Yes/No

2022 Yes/No

2032 Yes/No

Comments

5. Kindly provide your estimation of the percentage of the total county budget that will be required as
transfers from central government? Provide your forecast by inserting your estimated percentage. 0-100% Year Please give estimated % Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 0-100% 2017 0-100% 2022 0-100% 2032 0-100%

Comments:

6. Kindly provide your opinion of what the counties ability will be to budget and plan for what is
required to serve their population by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu

2012 1-10

2017 1-10

2022 1-10

2032 1-10

Comments:

7. Kindly provide your opinion of what the cities/municipalities/towns ability in the counties will be to
collect revenue (i.e. property taxes, user fees, administration fees) from the population by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance)

Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu

2012 1-10

2017 1-10

2022 1-10

2032 1-10

Comments:

8. Kindly provide your opinion of what the counties ability will be to transform the grants from central
government and donor funding into tangible benefits (services) to the population by rating it from 110? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance) Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 1-10 2017 1-10 2022 1-10 2032 1-10

Comments:

9. Kindly provide your opinion of what the cities, municipalities and towns ability within the county will
be to transform the grants from the county government, own revenue (i.e. property taxes, user fees, administration fees) and donor funding into tangible benefits (services) to the population by rating it from 1-10? (1=worst performance, 10=best performance) Year Please score Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu 2012 1-10 2017 1-10 2022 1-10 2032 1-10

Comments:

10. Do you think there will be any significant socio or economic crises present during the years stated
below? (Very likely 1, Likely 2, Not Likely 3, Not at all 4)

Year Please select Nairobi Nakuru Nyamira Marsabit Migori Mombasa Uasin Gishu Bungoma Narok Nandi Meru Lamu

2012 1-4

2017 1-4

2022 1-4

2032 1-4

Comments: