Outlook

How teenagers are today and how their consumer habits will evolve

Trustees

With the support of

Contents
Prologue Presentation Summary of the work

Prologue

2 In Catalonia, we are witnessing a profound 4 6 8 12 22 26 30

transformation of our growth pattern, which is a process that has not merely occurred from one day to the next. This transformation entails deep structural changes in the production factors and tractor sectors of the economy as well as in the markets they are aimed at. In this context, Catalonia has to play its innovation hand, which is one of the key factors for improving our model of competitiveness and our productivity, and to enable Catalan businesses to compete in the best conditions. In this sense, we must highlight the task performed by Creafutur, mainly for the following two reasons. Firstly, Creafutur is an example, a reference, and a pioneering initiative, which is unique in Spain because of its business and academic attraction to innovation from a new perspective that involves anticipating the future market and consumer trends. Besides carrying out studies, Creafutur is also a launching pad, created to place access to innovation at the service of small and medium-sized enterprises in order to turn Barcelona and Catalonia into a reference point in Europe on this matter. This is the route to be followed in this, and other sectors. However, to achieve this, government and business must work together. Creafutur is an example of public-private cooperation with regard both to its establishment its founding members are the Catalan Government

Historic evolution of teenagers Questions and answers Teens and communication Teens in figures Creafutur

and ESADE and the backing it receives from private businesses. Secondly, by carrying out prospection and analysis studies of future market and consumer trends, Creafutur provides us with a beacon, a reference guide, for those businesses seeking to anticipate and take the right decisions with a view to increasing their market share. By anticipating, deciding, taking risks; in short by embracing the world of enterprise. This is the attitude we want to see in the businesses of our country. They have already demonstrated that they have the ability to compete on the open sea, but the surroundings in which they move are constantly advancing, hence a lot of work is still to be done. It is our duty to try to anticipate the market trends and place all the instruments to make it happen at their service, and Creafutur is a very powerful instrument. For all these reasons, I am proud to be able to present this summary of Creafuturs latest work, entitled How Teenagers are today and how their consumer habits will evolve. This study aims, not only to outline the profile of present day teenagers as future consumers, but also to give us a glimpse of their attitudes and concerns as Catalan society enters the twenty-first century. To know well the behaviour and needs of the people not only represents an opportunity to do business, but is an essential element for good government. I am convinced that this study will be of use to businesses and

the administration to enable them to improve their relationship with the citizens of the future, as well as their services or products. Therefore, all that remains is for me to thank the work of all of those who have made this document possible and to encourage them to continue working in the same direction. Antoni Castells Minister of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat of Catalonia

Presentation

The present document is a broad summary of the study Outlook Teens 2010: How teenagers are today and how their consumer habits will evolve, produced by Creafutur. The study comprises in-depth analysis of how todays teenagers are (those who are currently aged from 12 to 19 years) and how their consumer habits will evolve in the next few years (when they will be between 18 and 25), with the aim of understanding their values and foreseeing their future needs. Creafutur was set up to identify and disseminate new business opportunities for the countrys companies, through an analysis of the main macro trends outlined by society and the consumer. This is an objective which has obviously been shared and approved by its two trustees, that is, the Government of Catalonia and Esade, who have assisted us from the outset in the analysis of those areas which, from a business framework, are perceived to be relevant and of an uncertain future evolution. Up to the present day, we have identified business opportunities in fields such as Sustainability, Leisure and Entertainment, New Information and Communication Technologies, Food and Beverages, Energy and Social Services.

This year, for various reasons, we decided to study both the teenage and young adult segments. Perhaps the most important reason lies in the fact that we will be able to understand how our future will be by observing how this generation evolves, bearing in mind that this is a generation largely unknown to those around them, not only to their families but also to the academic and business worlds. At Creafutur we are interested in what is going to happen in a few years time and what is taking place outside our country, and this is why we have prepared the study from an international perspective, that is, we have observed teenagers from eight countries, some of which have cultures that are quite close to our own, such as the United States, Great Britain and France, while others are from cultures further away that nevertheless have equally relevant economies with regard to our present and future, such as Brazil, China, Japan and Mexico. We answer such very pertinent questions as the following: What products or services will they want to buy or use? How will they find out about what is happening in the world? How will they stand with regard to sustainability, made-in and social responsibility? What categories are important today, and what will be important in 2020? Is your business in the right sector for 2020?

In order to carry out this extensive work, Creafutur and its Managing Director, Guillermo Ricarte, working with a team that, though small, has become more skilled and efficient with each passing year, coordinated a group of consultants led by professor Jos Luis Nueno. We have also had assistance from professors Kasturi Rangan, at Harvard Business School, and Mnica Casabay at the Esade Business School. Last but not least, I would like to mention the participation of the 15 companies sponsoring the study, which have contributed with ideas, opinions and their own resources. Thanks to their generosity we have been able to share this knowledge with all of you. We would like to thank our trustees the Ministry of Economy and Finances of the Generalitat of Catalonia and Esade and all of you for making it such a privilege to work for Creafutur.

Fernando Rods Vil Chairman of Creafutur

Synthesis of the work

Teenagers currently form a market, which, in terms of direct expenditure, spends more than 750,000 million euros each year on a global scale, and is a figure that hovers around 8,000 million euros a year in Spain. However, the importance of analysing this segment and its evolution is to be found in three main reasons: the first, its capacity to influence culture to create and to decide what it consumes. The second lies in the fact that it is a large source of aspiration, be it the younger or older ones. And thirdly, because it is during this period when they form their attitudes and preferences, and their behaviour as consumers is defined. The study Teens 2010: How are teens today and how their consumer habits will evolve, carried out by Creafutur, delves deeply into the definition of a teenager in 2010 and gains a perspective on what the young consumer will be like in 2020. We should point out that this is one of the most studied segments of the population, and that many earlier studies were used as a basis for this one, enabling us better to analyse the consumer phenomenon in depth and project behaviour 10 years into the future.

The project began with research, centred on young people aged from 12 to 19 years, divided into two groups: tweens (from 12 to 14 years) and teens (from 15 to 19 years). The geographic frame studied spans 8 countries: Brazil, Spain, the United States, France, Japan, Mexico, the United Kingdom and China. The research focused on understanding consumer attitudes and behaviour:
What do they consume? How do they learn about products and communicate? What reasons lead them to consume? Where do they consume? How do they consume? How do they pay for their consumer habits?

In order to depict the behavioural habits of the young adult of the future, the results were filtered through 2 types of trends:
Continuous trends, which have been extracted from secondary commercial sources and span the last 7 years and the 8 object countries of study. Disruptive trends, which are those for which we still do not possess absolute consistency, although they are discussed in various academic and prospective studies.

The main tools used to carry out this study were as follows:
A qualitative analysis made of 80 teenagers, on the basis of group dynamics. A qualitative analysis of metaphor generation, carried out individually with 35 teenagers. 1,200 interviews done in two formats in schools all over Spain: one aimed at tweens and the other at teens. 7,400 interactive questionnaires administered in the 8 countries of the geographical area covered by the study (Brazil, Spain, the United States, France, Japan, Mexico, the United Kingdom and China). 1,300 individual statements from teenagers, filmed on video. 120 hours of ethnographical analysis, based on the filming and questioning of teenagers in three shopping centres of different typology.

The trends were compared with more than 200 recent secondary sources:
51 business studies from the 8 countries. 60 academic documents. 48 documents from public administrations of the countries studied and from multi lateral bodies like the UN.. 31 teen websites. National surveys from the past 7

years on these groups consumer habits.

The results provided data about the attributes they request from products, and the benefits they will expect to receive in the future. This information allows us to understand the needs for improvement and the new market opportunities that will appear from the transformation this segment of population will undergo.

Historic evolution of teenagers

BEFORE THE 20th CENTURY
The concept of adolescent, or teenager, emerged in the United States in 1940, as a consequence of economic growth and the expansion of the middle class. The well-to-do family at the end of the nineteenth century understood that there were higher and longer-lasting incomes to be gained from the more highly-educated children than from taking possession of their childrens wages. Adolescence is a period when a person develops psychologically, and which depends on young peoples relationship with work or the lack of work, that is, with their leisure time. The concept of teen would not exist without work and, it is in fact more important than the concept of consumption. Adolescence becomes an idea; it is a vital phase of experimentation and learning. Responsibility is postponed during this phase. We are allowed to explore and make mistakes, while at the same time we are forced to study. In spite of national differences, the following chronology aims to be a faithful reflection of the evolution of the relationship between the Teenager and work and other parameters, which have defined their social role and which has changed over the years.

The unpaid worker

Young people, who live mostly in rural areas, spend 100% of their time with the family, where they are considered workers. Their main consumption is food. Leisure, as we understand it, does not exist.

20th CENTURY 1940s

20th CENTURY 1950s 1960s

The soldier
Industrialisation leads people to migrate from the countryside to the city, where young people work in factories, as though they were adults. The young are subject to the horrors of war and many are forced to become emancipated. Survival is their vital need and leisure is not relevant. They spend 80% of their time with adults.

The emerging teenager

With the end of the great wars, men take over most jobs once more and a period of economic well-being commences. Due to this, a surplus of wealth is generated and young people are sent to school, which is where the concept of the teenager was born as we understand it today. For the first time they have free time to learn, make mistakes and develop. More unqualified jobs abound, and teenagers can study and work, full- or part-time. For the first time in history, the time young people spend with adults is substantially reduced, down to only 50%. These are urban teens, who discover leisure consumerism.

20th CENTURY 1970s 1980s

20th CENTURY 1990s 2000s

Excluded
In the midst of this well-being, youths decide no longer to spend time with adults, basically due to a completely reactionary reason: opposition to the system. Increasingly socialized, teenagers begin to broaden their outlook, moving from school to the street, the tribe, the bar or the club. There are few jobs for them, they feel as if they have no future and, in the larger cities, they start to feel rejected and to align themselves against the system. The consumption of education and training is at its minimum and more time is spent on leisure than ever before. Young people now spend 70% of their time with people of the same age.

Latchkey kids
During this period the equilibrium is restored, because the family and society become more tolerant and receptive towards teens and they, in turn, feel comfortable with the system. These are the so-called latchkey kids, who have to look after themselves while their parents are at work. They spend their leisure time at home and at the mall or shopping centre, and start to make consumer decisions, especially with regards to their own food. They spend 15% of their time with adults and start to use technology and computers.

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21st CENTURY 2000s 2010s

21st CENTURY 2010s 2020s

The digital
The empathic family becomes consolidated and teenagers arevery comfortable at home. They understand the need to have an education, to have a good future, and greatly increases his free-time consumption. For the first time in history this leisure time has nothing to do with the leisure time of any other population group. Technologies take a leading role and teens spend more and more time alone with machines, instead of family or friends. The time shared with adults falls to 10%.

The digital mobile native

Teens spend more time at home because they do not need to leave the house in order to relate to each another. Internet offers spaces, virtual shopping centres and social networks to which they can belong. They spend less time with adults and their relationship is more virtualised. Their leisure is technological, and although it is free during a first phase, it tends to become less so. The 2020 teenager lives in a megapolis that may be located anywhere. Technology, other than offering devices to have fun and communicate with one another, offers him the possibility to develop small business ideas and work on new tasks, without restrictions or timetables. Their leisure consumption is reduced and it becomes basically functional. There is a distancing and a utilitarian nature to the family relationship because the teen is bombarded by digital social alternatives. The amount of time spent in the company of adults will be around 5%.

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T eens 2010: questions and answers 01

What are todays teenage consumers like? What are their attitudes and values?

2010 - Currently, teenagers make up 17.5%

of the worlds population; their numbers have grown by 14% compared to the 1990s and in the next 20 years, will continue to grow by 3%. Almost 75% live in emerging economies and, of these, 3 out of 4 are in the most disfavoured groups. The forecasts indicate that with the development of the new economies, these less favoured young people will take a qualitative jump up the scale, whereas teenagers from the industrialised countries will remain the same, or even see their quality of life diminish. 70% of current-day teenagers spend most of their time studying, and they are completely dependent on their family. They enter the workplace ever later, and this creates a delay in facing up to the obligations of their entry to the adult phase, making this step in a certain sense traumatic. Few youths combine work with studies. In the Anglo-Saxon world it is a more common practise, carried out by 34% of youths, while in Spain, only 19% do so. Their monthly expenditure, which is close to 155 euros, is 4 times greater than their allowance or pocket money. This extra expenditure is financed mainly by their parents.

They exercise an enormous influence on purchase decisions, and 6 out of every 10 actively take part in the purchase of food and household products. They decide especially upon their food, clothes and personal hygiene products. They are also important trendsetters, and inspire other teenagers and adults. Their leisure is mainly technological, and they live immersed in new technologies which offer them new forms of socialization, and even allow them to chronicle reality. However, although they are advanced users of these technologies, they still feel vulnerable, because they are not technical experts. They are satisfied with their way of life, which allows them to have fun and learn. They know that when they become adults their life will change, but they feel optimistic about the future and are prepared to make an effort to reach their independence, in spite of the fact that there are differences between teenagers from industrialised countries and those from emerging ones: those from the first group are optimistic because they are aware that they are few, and they look forward to the changes that will take place when they are older and become independent. In contrast, the second group is optimistic because they are in surroundings full of opportunities to which they want to gain immediate access they do not want to wait to leave school.

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Importance of having user-friendly technology

United Kingdom Mexico Japan France United States Spain China Brazil

02

Mean Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

What will the young adult consumer of 2020 be like?

2020 - Teenagers today are optimistic

about their future and believe that they will be economically independent, although the continuous trends which have come to light in the studies that analyse consumerism over the last 7 years in the 8 countries, indicate that, if things do not change, most young adults of 2020 will still live at home with their parents. Households will be much less congested and their offspring, in many cases only children, will feel extremely comfortable. Furthermore, the increase in empathy and the convergence of forms of leisure and communication with the possibility to use them anywhere will narrow the divide between parents and children, making coexistence more viable. Young people will be known as teens until they are 35 years old. They will live in the big cities, where jobs will be easier to get and most services will be free, though salaries will be lower. Generally speaking, consumer trends will continue as at present and, all other consumers, young adults will have to prioritise small, functional and affordable products. Their leisure will be more technological than ever before, and the 50,000 million multi-use devices

interconnected all over the world will allow them to have total mobility, ubiquity and connectivity. Therefore, their sphere of communication will become increasingly larger, although they will have to worry ever more in order to reduce their consumption of energy, as the change in social model will bring about a 50% increase in demand and will make energy a lot more expensive as the rate at which fossil fuels are extracted will not keep up with demand. As a consequence, alternative energy sources will dominate, especially in transport. In addition, we will have to contemplate sharing the use of certain products and services. The young adult will have technological leisure, and access to more communication than ever before, although at the same time he will suffer a change in the geo-economical and energy models. These trends will generate clearly negative impacts of which our young people are still not aware.

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03
2020 - The Teens 2010 study confirms that, in the future, there will be two types of trend. Young adults from the industrialised countries will continue to buy the same as 2010 - Teenagers today spend their money they do today, with clothes and technology as mostly on clothes (26/month), food (24/ the main categories. There will be a need to month) and technology (20/month). finance services that will not be free in the Clothes, which allow them to reaffirm their future, such as health and education. identity is the most important category in all Therefore, we can conclude that assistance of the 8 countries studied. In some cases, less is spent on technology, which is replaced with payment will be necessary. In contrast, in the emerging countries, there will be a by other categories: in Spain for example, change in priorities showing a tendency on eating out (20/month), and in Japan to request enduring goods, such as transport, on transport (13/month). In Brazil and the Anglo-Saxon countries, we must highlight the property, health, education, etc. As they become independent, the priority of all young consumption of personal hygiene products. adults will be to have their house in good Teens spend the money they receive as gifts order, before the rest of the categories. on increasing this consumption or on travel and leisure activities.
What categories are most important today, and which will be most important in the future?

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04
What products and services will young adults want to use in 2020? Are they different from the current ones?

2010 - Teenagers will increasingly use the Internet to socialize, have fun and stay informed. Around 68% are users of social networks and communicate via e-mail, and the tendency is growing. They also use the Internet to listen to music, play on-line, watch videos, look for information on products and read news. For them, the computer is essential, more than the mobile phone, as it allows them to do all this for no cost.

2020 - In the future, teenagers say that when they become young adults they will spend more time on the Internet. This channel will especially allow them to communicate via e-mail (83%), look for information to complete their studies (81%), obtain advice or buy products (76%), look for news (75%) and look for work (73%). Some 65% will be users of social networks making contact with friends, and they will display a certain rejection of the presence of brands in these spaces, which are considered private. They will spend less time playing on-line, listening to the radio and chatting. The mobile phone has not surpassed the computer, mainly because for the teenager the computer is free, whereas the mobile is not. This leads us to think there will be a change, and that the computer will lose ground to the new mobile devices. When these new devices incorporate the benefits of computers and mobiles, a switch from pioneering invention to dominating design will inevitably happen. Therefore, the main issue is cost, and when someone covers this cost, they will be inclined to change devices. Young adults will therefore want to buy these devices at affordable prices, with the same guarantees of free connectivity that the computer currently offers, in order to make the most of mobility and ubiquity.

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Intention of using online television in the future

United Kingdom Mexico Japan France United States Spain China

05

Brazil Mean More than now Less than now

2020 - Multitasking, which was a way to consume leisure in 2010, will be a way to work in 2020, radically changing the way we understand work today. Until now, 2010 - Currently, teenagers spend more teenagers had incorporated the printed press hours than ever before in contact with the into their habits upon becoming adults, media, be it through the Internet, television, mobile phone, video-console, etc. They spend but the ecosystem of consumption of current information has changed the role of the printed more time on the Net than watching press, and it is expected that young adults television, although there is no particular medium which completely replaces any other; access information by other means. The effect of the digitisation of the mass rather, all the media exist together, enabling media will allow us to gather them all young people to multitask. together on one mobile device, which will Teenagers, therefore, do various activities be tactile and able to be personalised. simultaneously, such as watching the Internet will become a starting point to television while they surf Internet and search for all kinds of information, and the check their phones. digital press will increasingly win more Very few read the printed press, and when they do so it is because they find newspapers followers because it will make constantly updated news available, at any place and at at home, in bars or at the library. They learn any time. The printed press will be associated about the news on the Internet, by means of with a time of relaxation and reflection. on-line newspapers and blogs, although they As explained later on (see section on give more credibility to the printed press. Teens and communication), the success They value the fact of being up-to-date and believe that in the future they will spend more of a means of communication in the future will depend on various factors, amongst time keeping up with the news. them credibility, quality, and the value attributed to the content. These are of special importance in the case of the printed press.

How will they find out about things? Will they read the press? Will it be printed or digital?

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06
How relevant will brands be in ten years time? 2010 - Todays young people prefer branded products. This is especially so in the emerging countries (1): 75% of Chinese, 69% of Brazilians and 61% of Mexicans state that they always buy products made by wellknown brands. The French and Spanish are those who consume the least branded goods, at 45% and 33%, respectively. We cannot expect them to say that they value advertising, although they do admit that it influences them, they tend to buy what they have seen advertised and the value of the brand is decisive when purchasing something. The Mexicans and the British are the most inclined to purchase products that they have seen advertised, whereas the French are the least influenced by advertising. 2020 - The relevance of brands for the teens of the future will stay more or less intact, but as teenagers become young adults brand names will start to lose importance. Price will be the most important, decisive factor. These practices will be seen with less intensity in the emerging countries, like Mexico and Brazil, where people will retain their aspirational attitudes.

(1) Interactive survey: the sample includes those who happen to be most representative in terms of consumption habits

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07

What values, advantages and attributes must be taken into account? Teenagers are formed as consumers during their infancy thanks to their family. During adolescence, they consume with friends, where the family acquires a financing role. In general, they usually plan their purchases, except in Brazil and Mexico where they appear to be more impulsive and inclined to purchase products they had no initial intention of buying. They find out about the possibilities of consumption through existing media, asking opinions of friends and family members and, when purchasing things, they choose the mall, which is also the meeting point to catch up with their friends. If they like something, they buy it again, especially in France, Spain and Brazil. In China, the United States and the United Kingdom, teenagers prioritise the experience of trying out and changing brands over fidelity. They like to compare quality and price, being demanding and distrustful about the quality of the product. The Spanish and French are those who more firmly believe that many products are not worth what you pay for them. In contrast, the Japanese believe that what they pay for the products corresponds to the value they receive from them.

In general, teenagers pay for their purchases with money and do not own credit cards. Furthermore, most of them do not know the most common formulas of finance and do not largely trust them. They do not shop on-line because they are not allowed to, but also because they do not completely believe in the payment models or in the quality of the product, even though they are becoming more used to doing so.

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I will accept advertisements in exchange for free access to music, series, films, etc.
United Kingdom Mexico Japan France United States Spain China

08

Brazil Mean Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

Will they buy or acquire products in a different way? 2020 - In the future, young adults consumerism will grow at the city malls and decrease at the suburban malls. They will increasingly stay at home, avoiding going to places which indicate an added cost and they will socialize more through social networks. When buying, the opinion of family and friends will continue to be important, but they will also count on comments appearing on the Internet as a reliable source. Amongst price, convenience and range, they will attach the most value to price and comfort. Regarding online shopping, they believe that those concerns they have today such as distrust of the service and payment model will be resolved. Non-physical products such as music and travel will continue to be as dominant as today in online purchasing. If hybrid online business models are invented, other categories can be added to these, generating new marketing models that will enable access to quality content. This content will be paid for, either in exchange for receiving and watching advertising or financed by third parties. Teenagers seem ready to make local purchases, increasingly using interactive means. They prefer to buy everything in the same place, as opposed to the specialised

store. There are, therefore, opportunities in this proximity and communication, as the information gap will have to be filled (the task is traditionally carried out by shops), and this could be the role of social networks, blogs, etc. When purchasing products, 65% of teenagers believe that in the future they will use the credit card as a means of payment. However, trends indicate that there will be a mobile device which will offer a reliable electronic equivalent to money. To become generally popular amongst young adults, this device would have to have a full series of guarantees, the most important of them being that of protecting them against cloning and identity theft.

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I prefer to buy clothes made in my own country

United Kingdom Mexico Japan France United States Spain China

09

Brazil Mean Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree

How will they stand with regard to sustainability, made-in and social responsibility?

2020 - Young people will only feel responsible for the environment when they feel responsible for all the other things in life, 2020 - They are not interested in the where, that is, when they become independent. In the future, only the Mexicans and Brazilians who or how products are made, and they do not believe that changing their purchasing state that they will be more aware of this issue and will adopt more sustainable habits. habits will serve to change the world. Young However, the continuous trends that can peoples environmental awareness increases be seen in this study indicate that in the with age, and as a consequence, teens are future environmental problems will affect more aware than tweens, although they all young adults even more. The increase in see the environment something distant that energy demand and the excess of water thay will worry about when they are older. consumption in the industrialised areas Current teenagers claim to reject compawill mean that these two elements will be nies which are not socially responsible, much more expensive. There will have to although in practise they do not attempt to find out who thees are and, when it comes to be a change in attitude towards consumption, which will have to be more sustainable, where purchasing, they are not bothered about the recycling cease to be an option to become country of origin of what they are buying. The French due to their education in social an obligation. In the industrialised countries, this responsibility the Brazilians and Mexicans awareness can be developed if children because they have suffered in the environmental sphere are those most worried about are educated from school age. Generally speaking, the tendency will be to demand these issues and present more sensitive consumer habits with regard to environment- products from socially responsible businesses that treat men and women equally, that do ally sustainable and socially responsible not use child labour and that have factories products and services. in their own country. Mexican and French teenagers will be those who will show more responsible conduct in this sense when they become young adults. In contrast, Chinese and Japanese will attach less importance to work and social issues, probably due to cultural differences.

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Opinion about sharing the cost and use of things

United Kingdom Mexico Japan France United States Spain China Brazil

10

Mean In some cases I think it is alright to share I believe it is alright to share everything I believe it is not right to share the use and cost of things

Will current models regarding the ownership of goods change? 2010 - Todays teenagers hardly know the culture of sharing. They live in houses with few siblings and they are increasingly more individualist. Young adults from industrialised countries have issue such as health and education resolved, financed by the State and their parents, and their expenditure is concentrated on clothes, food, leisure and transport. In contrast, young people from countries with emerging markets are more concerned about such issues as education and health and are less concerned with leisure. 2020 - In those products which lose emotional value or which represent tools at the service of functional attributes, there is a greater inclination to share, especially to share costs (with ownership by just one person). In the future, a new model of ownership will emerge. Young adults will be inclined to share the use of some products, be it for reasons of sustainability the ability to access more expensive products. The car, food and journeys are the categories perceived to be the most appropriate to be shared, although they will not be willing to share clothes or personal hygiene products.

The Spanish and Mexicans, in 94% of cases, are those most inclined to put this new model of ownership into practice. In contrast, the most individualistic are the Chinese, 67% of whom are reluctant to embrace such a thing. Global trends indicate there will be a change in values in the market which will directly affect the youths of the future and will provoke a change regarding the present. teenagers from industrialised countries will have to spend much more on health and education, which will cease to be free; in contrast, they will reduce their expenditure on accommodation, transport, leisure, culture and connectivity. Furthermore, young adults in emerging countries will have to spend much less on health and education and much more on private transport, accommodation, leisure, domestic appliances and other discretional expenses.

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T eens and communication

the original figure. Young adults today spend more than 30 hours a week on mass media The future (the success) of mass media is and it is foreseen that in 2020 this number determined by the evolution of the following will grow to 40 hours. parameters: The introduction of new communication 1. Life expectancy, which is increasing, and technologies has produced uncertainty therefore widens the range of formats in each generation of adults due to the social and contents, especially the current ones. changes it implies. Until now the appearance of new media had not supposed the disappear2. The medias ability to take on a specific role ance of the old ones, but that each one has in peoples daily life (the radio in the car, gone on to attain a specific role. watching television on the sofa or newsHowever, digitisation is a phenomena papers when relaxing). without precedent in history which allows 3. The motivation for using them, mainly us to listen to music, to the radio, to be entertainment, information and socialization. informed, to watch programmes, etc., and all this from one device, and with one click. 4. The quality and value added to the content Although this phenomenon is altering, and (the credibility of the brand) will do so even more in the future, the way The time teenagers dedicate to mass media they consume media will continue to survive has increased constantly since the beginning linked to behavioural habits. That is, they will of the twentieth century, and we must listen to the radio in their cars, they will emphasise that hardly any have fallen by the watch television while they rest on the sofa wayside. In the past, they only spent one or and they will read the newspaper while two hours a day reading the newspaper, but relaxing in the garden. when the radio came into our homes in the 1920s and television appeared in the 1950s, consumption increased to more than 10 hours a week. From 1980 onwards, with the advent of computers, video consoles and mobile telephones, this time has grown to triple Consumption of mass media

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Consumption of content The appearance of digital devices has increased the time that teenagers are in contact with online communication channels, be it for entertainment, for learning about what is happening in the world or for relating to others. These devices offer the possibility of performing different activities at the same time and combine various media simultaneously. Teenagers also consume off-line entertainment and leisure products, above all television. TV is deeply rooted amongst the teen population and plays a socializing role, because it allows them to share the same hobbies, like TV shows or sports broadcasts. They value professional products and the content they offer, but state that they do not watch the television in general, only specific programmes. Only 38% of teenagers download programmes or watch them on the Internet, and only when these programmes are not broadcast on their own countrys television. They prefer the quality offered by the television screen, although they would like to have the choice to select what they want to see at all times.

In the way that young people today allocate their leisure time, television competes with computer activities. It has become evident that there is a need for programmed content that can be viewed on different devices, whenever and wherever we want. However, if television can evolve and give more options to the consumer, it will retain its hegemony in the audiovisual business. All this indicates that the digitization of content and the new technologies will ensure that the media do not lose the roles they have played over the years, as well as acquiring new roles.

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Role of social networks Digital media have not only allowed todays teenagers to enjoy content, but also to relate in a new way. 68% of todays teenagers report they often communicate via e-mail and they are members of social networks. Although they are mistrusting and selective, they have a new concept of intimacy, and Internet allows them to share personal interests and have fun while they communicate. Social networks have acquired a socializing function and become a meeting point for teenagers. For this reason, social networks can state that their use is not a fleeting fashion, but that it will last in the future and will gain more relevance. On the other hand, it is difficult to forecast which social networks will be successful in the future. Social networks have not yet reached a level of total maturity, and their development is still in process. Those which already exist will have to adapt to the life needs of each period of the adult young and will have to offer, for instance, the possibility to choose studies or look for a job. However we expect that the appearance of new networks, which will be much more specialised, will allow the young to establish ties derived from their concerns, specific activities or hobbies.

Currently, neither social networks nor other websites serve to greatly modify the teenagers opinion of advertising. They value advertised brands, not due to the message it may transmit, but for the fact that such advertisement confers solidity. They look for information about brands to form an idea, and gather opinions from other users, although they state that they do not trust those individual opinions because they do not know who is really behind any of these comments. If new social networks or websites are created in the future with the intention to evaluate brands, they will have to be independent and neutral.

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The digital age In the digital age, the distinction between entertainment, information and socializing becomes hazy. As the Internet has enabled multi-tasking, which means teenagers use different devices simultaneously, the need to find a single gadget that provides everything with just one click arises. A recent study of the introduction of new technologies by Morgan Stanley notes the rapid penetration of the iPhone since its introduction. Internet connection and easy access to applications has radically changed the way we use our mobile phones. iPhone owners user this gadget for 20 minutes more than other mobile phone users every day, and for different purposes. The proportion of time they spend talking has fallen from 70% to 45%, whilst that spent sending e-mails, surfing the Net, listening to music and playing games has increased. In the case of e-mailing, the increase is from 4% to 12%.

The trend towards mobile Internet grows. Users increasingly prefer tactile wireless devices without cables, which are interconnected, and value that they are free with a flat rate portable and secure. This is the key to the future: to develop a versatile, simple, intuitive and cheap device which allows young adults to customize its contents according to their own requirements, so that it reflects their hobbies, interests and needs.

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T eens in figures

60%
share in the purchase of food and household products (mainly their own food). This concerns particularly food (68%), clothes (67%) and personal hygiene products (52%).

45%
of their expenditure goes on clothes (26/month), food (24/month) and technology (20/month). In Spain, they spend less on technology and more on eating out (20/month).

66%
are very satisfied with the allowance of less than 11/week they receive; their monthly expenditure is 4 times greater than their weekly allowance, and approaches 155 (expenditure co-financed by parents).

70%
of teens today spend a great deal of time studying, and they depend totally on their families; 79% of Spanish teens have had no contact with the work place. prefer to buy products made in their own country.

19%

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75%
of teenagers do other things at the same time as they watch television, and nearly 80% do other things whilst surfing the Net.

38%

61%

68%
are users of social networks, and the tendency is growing; there are more female users (56%) than male, and users are mostly young adults (over 40% are aged from 18 to 24).

of teens download programmes or watch them on the Internet, but only when they are not broadcast on their own countrys television; they prefer the quality offered by the television screen, but would like to have the freedom of choice to select what they want.

read the newspaper at least once a week and generally because the household buys it; in the case of the United States they subscribe on their own behalf.

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65% 79%
would rather have low consumption appliances. The British are the most interested in these appliances (60%).

52%
would buy electric-powered vehicles, especially Brazilians and Mexicans (65%).

82%
will be willing to share the cost and ownership of some goods, such as food, the car and journeys. Mexicans and Spanish will be the most inclined to share (94%).

prefer to eat ecological products, which are healthy and without additives. The Spanish and British are the least interested in ecological food, only 50%, compared with 75% of French, Brazilians and Mexicans.

65%

30%

79%
would be willing to save to go to a concert or a live sports event which represents a unique experience.

of teens believe that in the future they will use their credit cards to pay for things; although world trends indicate that there will be a mobile device which will offer a reliable electronic equivalent to money.

will want to buy clothes made in their own country. The least interested in doing so will be the Spanish and the British (22%).

56%
will want to organize and plan journeys by themselves. British and Americans are the least interested in doing so, with only 40%.

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75% 63%
state that in the future they will read online news more than previously. France is the exception, where only 42% of youths will do so. will make greater use of the Internet to look for information about products. will not want to pay for content such as music, series or films, and will accept advertising in exchange for free access to the Net. The Japanese and the French will be the most interested in doing so (60%).

59% 50%
will believe the information they get through social networks.

will want to use traveling time to do other activities and would appreciate the chance to own a multifunctional mobile device.

16%

83%
will want to have technology that is easy to use and is reliable. They will use it more, but will not be technical experts.

60%
state that in the future they will watch television online more than previously. In Japan some 80% of youths will do so.

43%
will buy few things on-line because they will trust neither the method of payment nor delivery. The level of rejection is highest amongst Spanish and Mexicans (60%).

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Creafutur

Creafutur was established in 2006 as a private foundation by the Government of Catalonia Ministry of Economy and the ESADE business school, which are both represented on its Board of Trustees. Creafuturs activities focus on analyzing consumer macro trends which create future business opportunities and identifying and disseminating these opportunities amongst businesses.

Amongst all the foundations activities and services, the following are particularly important: drawing up studies of consumer trends and the business opportunities that these generate; organising conferences and workshops; and advising companies in their respective fields of activity. The studies Creafutur has produced to date include the following titles: Sustainability and business opportunities The future of leisure and entertainment in Europe The future of social services Social habits and new information technologies: trends The future of food and beverages: principal trends

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Edifici Esadecreapolis Av. de la Torre Blanca 57, local1A3 08173 - Sant Cugat del Valls BARCELONA T +34 932 061 750 F +34 932 059 611 contact@creafutur.com www. creafutur.com

Trustees

With the support of

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