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California Update

14th Annual Mid-C Seminar


Wenatchee, Washington

July 19, 2010

Disclaimer

The conclusions and opinions in this presentation are the authors. They do not reflect the opinions, conclusions or policy positions of the Western Power Trading Forum or its members, Resero Consulting or its clients, WECC or the VGS, or the CAISO.

Dynamic Transfers

Topics

TRECS

Independent Transmission

Supply Variability

TRECS

TRECS (Tradable Renewable Energy Credits) Scorecard


CPUC decision issued on March 11, 2010 Through 2011, 25% of RPS target could be met with TRECS

After 2011, no cap on TRECS


IOU quotas were essentially filled at the time Decision was stayed immediately

TRECS cant be used to meet RPS at all


CARB issued separate rules that do allow use of TRECS to meet 33% RPS Separate initiative underway to broker a compromise (also SB 722) 60% in-state, 15% dynamic transfer, 25% TRECS
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TRECS

Practical Implications of TRECS


Out-of-state renewable development has limitations Availability of dynamic transfer capability (500 MW at COI) Ability of BAs to absorb VG (BPAs DSO 216) Availability and cost of transmission

Availability and cost of balancing, firming, shaping


In-state development has limitations Costs of siting, permitting and construction Public resistance to new infrastructure Availability, quality and suitability of in-state resources CPUC decision and SB 722 likely to face challenges under Commerce Clause Lends urgency to Joint Initiative, Efficient Dispatch Toolkit, similar efforts
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Independent Transmission

aka, Who Can Build What?


~ December, 2009

CAISO proposes to confer right of first refusal to incumbent TOs for renewable energy projects in their service territories
Independent developers complain CPUC complains

~ April, 2009
CAISO backs off ROFR Devil is in the details Trans-Bay Cable - $400 million HVDC connecting SF with Pittsburg Western Grid Development Proposals

Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 6

Supply Variability

Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 7

Indicative Results Source: CAISO Renewable Issues Forum 2010: Market and Product Review

Supply Variability

Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 8

Indicative Results Source: CAISO Renewable Issues Forum 2010: Market and Product Review

Supply Variability

Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 9

Indicative Results Source: CAISO Renewable Issues Forum 2010: Market and Product Review

Supply Variability

Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 10

Indicative Results Source: CAISO Renewable Issues Forum 2010: Market and Product Review

Supply Variability

Renewable (VG) Integration Issues


Managing variability and uncertainty
Whos responsible: producer, buyer, someone else? Where is it done: gen bus, source BA, sink BA?

What tools are available: dynamic transfer, on-site supplemental resources, firming
and shaping services, changes in scheduling, etc.?

Are new grid services needed?


Ramp product for speed of response
Load following product for long-duration response

Should VG pay for its impacts on the grid? Should VG be incentivized to bid day-ahead? Should it be required to provide

flexibility?
Is compensation for suppliers of flexibility adequate?
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Supply Variability

What the Future Might Look Like*


Slow phase-out of the Day-Ahead/Hour-Ahead Markets Continuous delivery of power is incompatible with infrequent, periodic spot markets at defined points in time VG and Smart Grid require frequent opportunities to update market positions Facilitated by transition to more flexible supply and price-responsive demand Addition of five minute energy markets, 15 minute scheduling intervals at the interties Mitigates the impact of block hour schedules Allows VG to do its own balancing Automation and technology make it possible CPS1 and CPS2 will be replaced by RBC or something else Free-flowing interties necessary to maximize VG production Interconnection frequency and local voltages are the real reliability metrics

* See the disclaimer


Copyright 2010 Resero Corporation 12

Thanks!
Any Questions? Contact:
Jack Ellis Resero Consulting 530-581-2134

jellis@resero.com

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