Koac07001enc 002

EUROPEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT
TRENDS TO 2030 UPDATE 2007
European Commission
Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of
the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the
Directorate-General for Energy and Transport and represents that organisations views on
energy facts, figures and projections. These views have not been adopted or in any way
approved by the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the
Commissions or the Directorate-Generals views.
Authors (E3M-Lab): Prof. P. Capros, Dr. L. Mantzos, V. Papandreou, N. Tasios
Sub-contractors: ESAP SA, CNRS/LEPII, ECN, ObservER, WSP, Wuppertal Institute, IIASA
Legal notice:
The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this
publication, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.
The manuscript was completed on 8 April 2008.
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ISBN 978-92-79-07620-6
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Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Belgium
EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LISTOFTABLES.............................................................................................................................................................5
LISTOFFIGURES...........................................................................................................................................................6
ABBREVIATIONS&UNITS..............................................................................................................................................8
EXECUTIVESUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................9
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................................................11
ASSUMPTIONS........................................................................................................................................................................11
OVERALLRESULTS....................................................................................................................................................................12
FINALENERGYDEMAND............................................................................................................................................................13
POWERGENERATION................................................................................................................................................................14
CO2EMISSIONS.......................................................................................................................................................................15
CONCLUSIONS.........................................................................................................................................................................16
EU27ENERGYOUTLOOKTO2030..............................................................................................................................17
1
INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................................19
1.1
2
3
4
5
THENATUREOFTHEBASELINESCENARIO..........................................................................................................................19
MAINASSUMPTIONSFORBASELINESCENARIO....................................................................................................20
2.1
INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................................20
2.2
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPROGRESS.....................................................................................................................................20
2.3
TECHNOLOGYPOLICYASSUMPTIONS.................................................................................................................................21
2.4
LEGISLATIONUPTOTHEENDOF2006...............................................................................................................................23
2.5
DISCOUNTRATES..........................................................................................................................................................23
2.6
OTHERASSUMPTIONS....................................................................................................................................................24
OUTLOOKONWORLDENERGYANDPRICES..........................................................................................................25
3.1
DEMOGRAPHICANDECONOMICGROWTHASSUMPTIONS.....................................................................................................25
3.2
WORLDENERGYBASELINESCENARIO................................................................................................................................25
3.3
WORLDENERGYMARKETSANDPRICES.............................................................................................................................27
OUTLOOKONEUECONOMICACTIVITY.................................................................................................................30
4.1
DEMOGRAPHICOUTLOOK...............................................................................................................................................30
4.2
MACROECONOMICOUTLOOK..........................................................................................................................................30
4.3
TRANSPORTACTIVITYOUTLOOK.......................................................................................................................................32
4.4
INDIGENOUSFOSSILFUELPRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................34
EUENERGYDEMANDOUTLOOK,..........................................................................................................................35
5.1
INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................................35
5.2
STATISTICALEXPLANATIONABOUTCHP.............................................................................................................................35
5.3
ENERGYDEMANDININDUSTRY........................................................................................................................................35
5.3.1
Steamgenerationinindustry............................................................................................................................37
5.3.2
IronandSteelIndustry......................................................................................................................................37
Update 2007
European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030
5.3.3
NonFerrousmetalsindustry.............................................................................................................................38
5.3.4
ChemicalIndustry..............................................................................................................................................39
5.3.5
NonMetallicMineralsIndustry.........................................................................................................................40
5.3.6
PulpandPaperIndustry....................................................................................................................................42
5.3.7
OtherIndustrialsectors.....................................................................................................................................43
5.4
THESERVICESSECTOR....................................................................................................................................................45
5.5
THEAGRICULTURESECTOR..............................................................................................................................................48
5.6
THERESIDENTIALSECTOR...............................................................................................................................................48
5.7
TRANSPORTSECTOR......................................................................................................................................................52
5.8
OVERVIEWOFFINALENERGYDEMAND.............................................................................................................................56
6
POWERANDSTEAMOUTLOOKFORTHEEU..........................................................................................................58
6.1
DEMANDFORELECTRICITY..............................................................................................................................................58
6.2
SYSTEMLOSSESANDEUIMPORTS....................................................................................................................................58
6.3
POWERGENERATIONCAPACITYREQUIREMENTS.................................................................................................................59
6.4
POWERGENERATIONINVESTMENT...................................................................................................................................61
6.5
POWERGENERATIONBYSOURCE.....................................................................................................................................64
6.6
COGENERATIONOFELECTRICITYANDHEAT........................................................................................................................66
6.7
FUELCONSUMPTIONFORPOWERGENERATION..................................................................................................................67
6.8
COSTSANDPRICESOFELECTRICITY...................................................................................................................................68
6.9
ELECTRICITYTRADEWITHINTHEEU..................................................................................................................................70
6.10
CARBONINTENSITYOFPOWERGENERATION..................................................................................................................70
7
STEAMANDHEATPRODUCTIONINTHEEU..........................................................................................................71
8
PRIMARYENERGYOUTLOOKFORTHEEU.............................................................................................................72
8.1
PRIMARYENERGYDEMAND............................................................................................................................................72
8.2
PRIMARYENERGYSUPPLY...............................................................................................................................................74
9
8.2.1
IndigenousPrimaryProductionofEnergy.........................................................................................................74
8.2.2
NetImportstotheEUandImportDependence................................................................................................75
ENERGYCOSTS.....................................................................................................................................................76
10
CO2EMISSIONSOUTLOOKFORTHEEU..............................................................................................................76
11
GENERALCONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................................78
GLOSSARY...................................................................................................................................................................80
APPENDIX1:DEMOGRAPHICANDMACROECONOMICASSUMPTIONS.........................................................................83
APPENDIX2:SUMMARYENERGYBALANCESANDINDICATORS...................................................................................95
Update 2007
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE1:BASELINEPRICESOFFOSSILFUELS.....................................................................................................................................11
TABLE2:SHAREOFENERGYSOURCESINTOTALPRIMARYENERGY........................................................................................................12
TABLE3:MAINASSUMPTIONSFORTHEPRIMESMODEL...................................................................................................................20
TABLE4:ASSUMPTIONSONNUCLEARENERGY..................................................................................................................................21
TABLE5:SUMMARYOFEULEGISLATIONUPTO2006........................................................................................................................24
TABLE6:WORLDTOTALENERGYREQUIREMENTS.............................................................................................................................26
TABLE7:FOSSILFUELSDEMANDANDSUPPLY.................................................................................................................................28
TABLE8:BASELINEPRICESOFFOSSILFUELS.....................................................................................................................................28
TABLE9:MACROECONOMICANDOTHERDRIVERSFOREU27ENERGYDEMAND,19902030.................................................................31
TABLE10:DEMOGRAPHICANDHOUSINGDATA................................................................................................................................49
TABLE11:TRENDSOFENERGYCONSUMPTIONINROADTRANSPORT....................................................................................................54
TABLE12:ANNUALCHANGEOFENERGYDEMANDANDINTENSITY.......................................................................................................56
TABLE13:FUELMIXINFINALENERGYDEMAND...............................................................................................................................56
TABLE14:AVERAGEPOWERLOADFACTOR......................................................................................................................................65
TABLE15:POWERCAPACITYOFPLANTSWITHCHPCOMPONENT........................................................................................................66
TABLE16:CHPINDICATORS..........................................................................................................................................................67
TABLE17:EFFECTIVEAVERAGENETEFFICIENCYRATES(NOTADJUSTEDFORCHP)..................................................................................67
TABLE18:NETELECTRICITYEFFICIENCYRATES..................................................................................................................................68
TABLE19:POWERSYSTEMCOSTSANDPRICES..................................................................................................................................69
TABLE20:STRUCTUREOFPOWERSYSTEMCOSTS.............................................................................................................................69
TABLE21:DECOMPOSITIONOFCARBONINTENSITYCHANGES..............................................................................................................71
TABLE22:SUMMARYOFSTEAM/HEATBALANCE..............................................................................................................................71
TABLE23:ENERGYCOSTINDICATORS.............................................................................................................................................76
TABLE24:DECOMPOSITIONOFCHANGESINCARBONINTENSITYOFGDP..............................................................................................77
Update 2007
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE1:PRIMARYENERGYREQUIREMENTSBYFUEL........................................................................................................................12
FIGURE2:ENERGYANDCARBONINTENSITYINDICATORS....................................................................................................................12
FIGURE3:FINALENERGYDEMANDBYSECTOR.................................................................................................................................13
FIGURE4:GROSSELECTRICITYGENERATIONBYSOURCE.....................................................................................................................14
FIGURE5:RENEWABLESSHAREINELECTRICITYGENERATION(GROSS)..................................................................................................15
FIGURE6:CHANGEOFENERGYRELATEDCO2EMISSIONSSINCE1990.................................................................................................16
FIGURE7:IMPORTDEPENDENCEOFTHEEU....................................................................................................................................16
FIGURE8:HISTOGRAMOFEQUIVALENTINVESTMENTINCENTIVESONRES.............................................................................................22
FIGURE9:BIOFUELSTARGETSANDPROJECTEDTRENDS......................................................................................................................22
FIGURE10:WORLDENERGYCONSUMPTIONANDPRODUCTIONBYAGGREGATEREGIONS........................................................................26
FIGURE11:GLOBALENERGYMIXANDCO2EMISSIONS.....................................................................................................................26
FIGURE12:STRUCTUREOFOILSUPPLY...........................................................................................................................................27
FIGURE13:STRUCTUREOFGASSUPPLY..........................................................................................................................................27
FIGURE14:IMPORTPRICESOFHYDROCARBONSTOEUROPE...............................................................................................................29
FIGURE15:INDEXOFCONVERGENCEOFGDP/CAPITA......................................................................................................................31
FIGURE16:STRUCTUREOFGDPBYSECTOR....................................................................................................................................32
FIGURE17:ACTIVITYOFENERGYINTENSIVEINDUSTRY.......................................................................................................................32
FIGURE18:TRANSPORTACTIVITYGROWTH,19902030..................................................................................................................32
FIGURE19:PASSENGERTRANSPORTBYMODE,19902030..............................................................................................................33
FIGURE20:FREIGHTTRANSPORTACTIVITY,19902030...................................................................................................................33
FIGURE21:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONININDUSTRY.............................................................................................................................36
FIGURE22:FUELMIXININDUSTRY(SHARES)...................................................................................................................................36
FIGURE23:STEAMPRODUCTIONININDUSTRY.................................................................................................................................37
FIGURE24:IRONANDSTEELSECTORPRODUCTION(MTONS).............................................................................................................37
FIGURE25:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINIRONANDSTEEL.....................................................................................................................37
FIGURE26:NONFERROUSMETALSPRODUCTION(MTONS)............................................................................................................38
FIGURE27:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINNONFERROUS.......................................................................................................................38
FIGURE28:SHARESBYSUBSECTOROFTOTALENERGYPRODUCTSUSEDINTHECHEMICALINDUSTRY........................................................39
FIGURE29:ENERGYPRODUCTSUSEDINCHEMICALINDUSTRY.............................................................................................................40
FIGURE30:ENERGYEFFICIENCYINNONMETALLICMINERALS.............................................................................................................41
FIGURE31:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINNONMETALLICMINERALS.......................................................................................................42
FIGURE32:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINPULPANDPAPER....................................................................................................................43
FIGURE33:STEAMPRODUCTIONINPULPANDPAPER........................................................................................................................43
FIGURE34:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINOTHERINDUSTRIES.................................................................................................................44
FIGURE35:STEAMPRODUCTIONINOTHERINDUSTRIES.....................................................................................................................44
FIGURE36:USEFULENERGYINSERVICESSECTOR.............................................................................................................................45
FIGURE37:ENERGYINTENSITYINDICATORS(RELATEDTOVALUEADDED)..............................................................................................46
FIGURE38:FINALENERGYCONSUMPTIONINSERVICESBYTYPEOFUSE................................................................................................47
FIGURE39:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINTHESERVICESSECTOR.............................................................................................................47
FIGURE40:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINAGRICULTURE........................................................................................................................48
FIGURE41:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINDICATORSFORTHERESIDENTIALSECTOR.....................................................................................50
FIGURE42:ENERGYCONSUMEDBYUSEINRESIDENTIALSECTOR.........................................................................................................50
Update 2007
FIGURE43:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINTHERESIDENTIALSECTOR.........................................................................................................51
FIGURE44:ENERGYEFFICIENCYINDICATORSFORROADTRANSPORTATION............................................................................................52
FIGURE45:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONPERUNITOFACTIVITY.................................................................................................................52
FIGURE46:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINROADTRANSPORTBYVEHICLETYPE...........................................................................................53
FIGURE47:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINROADTRANSPORTATION..........................................................................................................53
FIGURE48:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINRAILTRANSPORT....................................................................................................................55
FIGURE49:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONININLANDNAVIGATION...............................................................................................................55
FIGURE50:ENERGYRELATEDINDICATORSFORAVIATION...................................................................................................................55
FIGURE51:ENERGYCONSUMPTIONINTHETRANSPORTSECTOR..........................................................................................................56
FIGURE52:INCREMENTALFINALENERGYNEEDS...............................................................................................................................57
FIGURE53:FINALENERGYDEMANDBYSECTOR................................................................................................................................57
FIGURE54:FINALENERGYDEMANDBYFUELTYPE............................................................................................................................57
FIGURE55:ENERGYPRODUCTSINNONENERGYUSES.......................................................................................................................57
FIGURE56:ANNUALGROWTHOFELECTRICITYSALES.........................................................................................................................58
FIGURE57:ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONBYSECTOR...........................................................................................................................58
FIGURE58:POWERSYSTEMINDICATORS.........................................................................................................................................59
FIGURE59:DISTRIBUTIONOFTHERMALANDNUCLEARPLANTSBYCOMMISSIONINGANDDECOMMISSIONINGDATE......................................60
FIGURE60:DISTRIBUTIONOFDECOMMISSIONINGANDRETROFITTINGBYCOMMISSIONINGDATE..............................................................60
FIGURE61:DISTRIBUTIONOFPLANTSCURRENTLYINOPERATIONBYCOMMISSIONINGDATE.....................................................................60
FIGURE62:DISTRIBUTIONOFGASANDCOALPLANTS........................................................................................................................60
FIGURE63:POWERGENERATIONCAPACITY(NET)BYTYPEOFMAINFUELUSED....................................................................................61
FIGURE64:THERMALPOWERCAPACITY(NET)BYTYPEOFTECHNOLOGY..............................................................................................61
FIGURE65:INVESTMENTINPOWERGENERATION(NET).....................................................................................................................62
FIGURE66:INVESTMENTINRESFORPOWERGENERATION(NET)........................................................................................................62
FIGURE67:NUCLEARPOWERCAPACITIES(GWNET).........................................................................................................................63
FIGURE68:CAPACITYOFRENEWABLESINGW.................................................................................................................................64
FIGURE69:POWERGENERATIONBYPLANTTYPE(NET).....................................................................................................................65
FIGURE71:POWERGENERATION(NET)BYSOURCE..........................................................................................................................65
FIGURE70:POWERGENERATIONFROMRENEWABLES.......................................................................................................................66
FIGURE72:FUELSUSEDBYTHERMALPOWERGENERATION(ADJUSTEDFORCHP)..................................................................................67
FIGURE73:GROSSELECTRICITYEFFICIENCYRATE..............................................................................................................................68
FIGURE74:COSTANDPRICEOFELECTRICITY....................................................................................................................................69
FIGURE75:ELECTRICITYPRICES(PRETAX)BYSECTOR.......................................................................................................................70
FIGURE76:CARBONRELATEDINDICATORS......................................................................................................................................71
FIGURE77:CO2EMISSIONSANDPOWERGENERATION......................................................................................................................71
FIGURE78:GROSSINLANDCONSUMPTION......................................................................................................................................72
FIGURE79:STRUCTUREOFGROSSINLANDCONSUMPTION.................................................................................................................73
FIGURE80:GDPANDENERGYREQUIREMENTS................................................................................................................................73
FIGURE81:INDIGENOUSPRODUCTIONOFFOSSILFUELS.....................................................................................................................74
FIGURE82:INDIGENOUSBIOMASSWASTEPRODUCTION...................................................................................................................75
FIGURE83:IMPORTDEPENDENCEOFTHEEU...................................................................................................................................75
FIGURE84:INCREMENTALNEEDSFORFOSSILFUELIMPORTS...............................................................................................................75
FIGURE85:CARBONEMISSIONINDICATORS.....................................................................................................................................77
FIGURE86:CO2EMISSIONSBYSECTOR...........................................................................................................................................78
Update 2007
ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS
ACEA, JAMA, KAMA
Automobile Manufacturers Associations
bbl
Oil barrel
CIS
Commonwealth of Independent States
bcm
Billion of cubic meters
DG
Directorate-General
boe
Barrel of oil equivalent
DG ECFIN
Directorate General for Economic and Financial

Affairs
Gbl
Giga-barrels, or 109 barrels
DG TREN
Directorate General for Energy and Transport
km
Kilometre
EU
European Union
Mb/d
Million barrels per day
EU ETS
Emission Trading Scheme
Mbl
Million barrels
EU-15
15 "old" Member States of European Union
MEuro
Million Euro
EU-27
27 Member States of European Union
Mt
Million metric tonnes
EUROSTAT
Statistical Office of the European Communities
Mtoe
Million toe
IEA
International Energy Agency
MW
Mega Watt, or 106 watt
IPPC
Integrated Pollution Prevention Control
MWh
Mega Watt Hours, or 106 watt hours
NM-12
12 New Member States of European Union
GW
Giga Watt, or 10 watt
OECD
Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development
pa
per annum
UN
United Nations
pkm
Passenger-Kilometre (one passenger

transported a distance of one km)
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change
Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes
tkm
Tonne-Kilometre (one tonne of freight

transported a distance of one km)
CDM/JI
Clean Development Mechanism - Joint

Implementation
toe
Tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or

41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
CCGT
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
tons
Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes
CCS
Carbon capture and storage
TWh
Terra Watt-hour, or 1012 watt hours
CHP
Combined heat and power
CNG
Compressed Natural Gas
COP
Coefficient of Performance
CO2
Carbon Dioxide
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GTL
Gas to Liquids
GIC
Gross Inland Consumption
LNG
Liquefied Natural Gas
RES
Renewable Energy Sources
LPG
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
R&D
Research and Development
PV
Solar photovoltaic
SUV
Sport-utility vehicle
Update 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Update 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
TABLE 1: BASELINE PRICES OF FOSSIL FUELS
The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an

update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the Trends
to 2030 published in 2003 and its 2005 update.
$'2005/boe 1,2
The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained
economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States.
The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens
(E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models.
The Baseline scenario for the EU and each of its 27 Member-States simulates current trends and policies as implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006. While
informing about the development of policy relevant indicators, such as the renewables shares, the Baseline scenario
does not assume that targets, as set out in Directives, will
be necessarily met. The numerical values for these indicators are outcomes of the modelling; they reflect implemented policies rather than targets. This also applies for
CO2 emissions that are not constrained by Kyoto targets in
the Baseline scenario.
Policy scenarios that will be constructed with reference to
the Baseline scenario examine among other things the
achievement of energy policy targets on e.g. renewables or
CO2. The Baseline scenarios is a reference development
for scenarios on alternative policy approaches or framework conditions (e.g. higher energy import prices), in addition to its role as a trend projection.
200
201
201
202
202
203
Oil
54.5
54.5
57.9
61.1
62.3
62.8
Gas
34.6
41.5
43.4
46
47.2
47.6
Coal
14.8
13.7
14.3
14.7
14.8
14.9
Tax rates are kept constant in real terms at their 2006 levels unless there is better knowledge. This concerns transition periods for some Member-States to adapt to EU minimum tax rates from current lower levels, with the EU minimum rates being applied at the end of the respective transition periods.
The CO2 prices in the ETS sectors increase from 20
(2005)/t CO2 in 2010 to 22 /t CO2 in 2020 and 24 /t CO2
in 2030 reflecting current levels and preserving the baseline
approach of assuming a continuation of current policies
but taking into account that CDM/JI credits may become
more expensive over time.
The 2007 Baseline scenario includes policies and measures implemented in the Member-States up to the end of
2006. This concerns in particular ongoing policies on:
x Completion of the internal energy market by 2010 taking
into account derogations for electricity and gas market
opening;
x Energy efficiency (e.g. implementation of the building,
CHP, labelling Directives, etc; national policies on e.g.
education, information, public procurement, CHP, etc);
the assumption that the CO2 agreement with the car industry (essentially fuel efficiency) for 2008/09 would be
honoured had to be dropped but there is still considerable improvement assumed;
All numbers included in this report, except otherwise stated,

refer to European Union of 27 Member-States.
Assumptions
x Renewables (e.g. implementation of measures under

the electricity and biofuels Directives, ongoing national
policies supporting RES deployment);
The 2007 update of the energy Baseline scenario starts

from projections on economic growth (2.2% on average up
to 2030), in line with DG ECFIN short and long term expectations, as well as slightly increasing population up to 2020
with no further increase thereafter.
The energy projections are based on a high oil price environment with oil prices of 55 $/bbl in 2005 rising to 63 $/bbl
in 2030 (prices are in 2005 money; in nominal terms this
could be over 100 $/bbl in 2030 if it is assumed that the
inflation target of the ECB of 2% pa would be achieved).
The baseline price assumptions for the EU are the result of
world energy modelling that derives price trajectories for oil,
gas and coal under a conventional wisdom view of the development of the world energy system. Fossil fuel prices in
the Baseline scenario develop as follows:
x Nuclear (nuclear phase-out as agreed in certain Member-States, closure of existing plants in recently acceded Member-States according to agreed schedules;
nuclear investment is possible in countries that have not
ruled out nuclear or see such investment as unlikely for
the medium term);
x Promotion of clean and efficient technology including
carbon capture and storage (CCS) which is a possible
option in the Baseline scenario 3 ;
x Climate change (continuation of the EU ETS over the
1
The dollar exchange rate is assumed to equal 1.25 $/.

boe: barrel of oil equivalent (roughly 7.2 boe = 1 toe)
3
The final Baseline scenario outcome does not include CCS as an
economic option given its high costs and a CO2 price below 25 / t
CO2 in 2030.
2
Update 2007
11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
projection period without extension to new sectors).
Overall results
progressively retired and largely replaced by coal without

renewables making sufficient progress.
FIGURE 1: PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS BY FUEL
Renewables
1500
1000
Natural gas demand is expected to expand considerably by

71 Mtoe up to 2030, after the substantial increase already
seen up to now. Solid fuels are projected to exceed their
current level by 5% in 2030, following high oil and gas
prices and the nuclear phase-out in certain Member-States.
As a result of political decisions on nuclear phase-out in
certain old Member-States and the closure of plants with
safety concerns in some new Member-States, nuclear energy is 20% smaller in 2030 than it was in 2005. Although
nuclear generation has been rising in recent years, after
2010 the agreed policies on nuclear and the replacement
cycles for older plants lead to more nuclear plant closure
than there will be new investment in nuclear.
Carbon intensity (ratio of CO2 emission to energy consumption) continues to improve up to 2010. However, this improvement comes to a halt after 2010 as nuclear plants are
12
Lquids
500
Solids
Nuclear
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FIGURE 2: ENERGY AND CARBON INTENSITY INDICATORS

120
Index
1990=100
100
Carbon
Intensity of
Energy
80
60
The primary energy consumption increase of some 200

Mtoe between 2005 and 2030 will be overwhelmingly met
by renewables and natural gas, which are the only energy
sources that increase their market shares. Oil remains the
most important fuel, although its consumption in 2030 exceeds the current level by only 6%.
Energy
Intensity of
GDP
40
20
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
1990
Renewables increase most, growing by over 90% from today to 2030. In absolute terms they increase by 115 Mtoe
from 2005 to 2030 accounting for nearly 60% of the increase of energy demand. RES use increases most in
power generation, followed by transport and heating and
cooling.
Gas
2000
The 11% increase in the primary energy consumption by

2030 is much lower than the GDP growth over the same
period (71%). Thus, energy intensity (i.e. ratio between
primary energy consumption and GDP) improves by 1.7 %
per year up to 2030 after having seen an improvement of
1.4% per year during 1990 2005, including a period of
rapid improvements in the 1990s (1.8% per year). There
has been a slowing down of energy intensity improvements
in the earlier years of this decade, following sluggish economic growth with lower capital turn-over towards energy
efficient equipment. Energy intensity improvements are
driven by structural change towards services and lighter
industries as well as by efficiency improvements in all sectors.
Mtoe
2000
1995
Total EU-27 energy requirements continue to increase up

to 2030. In 2030 primary energy consumption is 11%
higher than in 2005. The energy growth rates become
smaller over time with consumption almost stabilising post
2020 reflecting lower economic growth and stagnating
population in the last decade of the projection period.
TABLE 2: SHARE OF ENERGY SOURCES IN TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY

%
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Solid fuels
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
27.3
37.9
17.9
12.3
4.5
18.8
38.0
23.0
14.2
5.9
17.7
36.7
24.6
14.2
6.8
17.2
36.4
24.9
13.2
8.2
17.4
35.7
25.7
11.3
10.0
16.7
35.3
25.7
10.3
11.8
The share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption falls

only marginally by 2030, reaching 78% (compared with
79% in 2005). Solid fuels and oil lose roughly 1 percentage
point each, while the gas share increases by 1 percentage
point.
The renewables share in primary energy consumption rises
throughout the projection period from less than 7% in 2005
to 8% in 2010, 10% in 2020 and 12% in 2030. Nevertheless, under baseline conditions the EU target on renewables for 2010 will not be achieved. The renewables share
in final energy demand rises by 4 percentage points between 2005 and 2020 reaching 12.7% in 2020. Achieving
the 20% renewables target for 2020 will require a substan-
Update 2007
Energy related CO2 emissions (including international air

transport) sank in the 1990s and in this decade started increasing again. EU-27 energy related CO2 emissions are
expected to remain below the 1990 level up to 2010, by
1.2%, thanks to the developments in the new MemberStates (in particular related to economic restructuring in the
1990s) and climate policies (such as the EU ETS). However, in the medium and long term, CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly, exceeding the 1990 level by
5.1% in 2020 and by 5.4% in 2030. In the long term, the
moderate CO2 increase reflects the low energy consumption growth and the rather strong role of renewables.
Final energy demand

Final energy consumption for transport and stationary purposes (e.g. in industry and households) increases by
20.5% from 2005 to 2030. This is 10 percentage points
more than the growth of primary energy demand (which, in
addition to final energy, includes losses in electricity generation and other transformation processes as well as energy use for non energy purposes, such as chemical feedstock). The lower percentage increase of total primary energy consumption compared with final energy demand
means that there are significant improvements in the transformation efficiency of the EU energy system over the next
decades. The replacement of old power stations with more
efficient ones is driving this development.
Final energy demand grows most in transport, followed by
the services sector with robust growth also in industry (especially lighter non-energy intensive industries). By comparison, demand growth is rather low for households and
agriculture.
Transport
Mtoe
1400
1200
Services
Agriculture
1000
Residential
800
600
Restof
Industry
400
200
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
Import dependence continues growing to reach 67% in

2030, which is up 14 percentage points from todays level 4 .
Import dependence for oil continues to be the highest,
reaching 95% in 2030. Gas import dependence rises substantially, from 58% at present to 84% in 2030. Similarly,
solid fuel supply will be increasingly based on imports,
reaching 63% in 2030 (up from just under 40% today).
1600
1995
The share of nuclear in total energy consumption drops

slightly, from 14% in 2005 to 13% in 2010 and to only 10%
by 2030. In total the share of indigenous and carbon free
energy sources rises marginally, from 21% in 2005 to 22%
in 2030.
FIGURE 3: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
1990
tial additional effort compared with baseline developments,

which includes only those measures implemented in the
Member-States by the end of 2006.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Energy
Intensive
industry
Transport energy demand in 2030 is projected to be 28%

higher than in 2005. After having seen very high growth
rates in the 1990s, the increase of energy use for transportation decelerates. In the projection period, transport energy demand growth rates decline over time. This reflects
the decreasing growth rates over time of both passenger
and freight transport activity. In addition, there are fuel efficiency improvements in particular in passenger transport
(e.g. private cars). Therefore, energy demand in transport
grows less than transport activity (in passenger- and tonnekm). However, the assumption that the car industry would
deliver on the CO2 targets for new cars by 2008/09 had to
be dropped and therefore fuel efficiency improves somewhat less than expected a few years ago.
Contrary to the past, the projection period displays some
significant fuel switching in the transport sector as a result
of the implementation of the biofuels Directive. Under baseline conditions the biofuels share in 2010 rises strongly to
almost 4% - however, falling somewhat short of the indicative target of 5.75%. Nevertheless, this target would be met
in 2015 and the share continues increasing up to 2030 to
reach 9.5%. As a consequence, CO2 emissions from transport are expected to grow less than energy use (20% versus 28% from 2005 to 2030).
Energy demand in industry is 20% higher in 2030 compared with 2005. Heavy industries (such as iron and steel)
grow slower than lighter less energy intensive ones (e.g.
engineering). Energy intensity in industry (energy consumption in industry related to value added) improves therefore
by 1.4% per year up to 2030. This shift in the production
structure also entails much higher use of electricity in industry (+ 37%). With strong penetration of electricity in in-
Import dependence could be even higher to the extent that renewables, especially biofuels, would be imported from outside the
EU; such imports may not yet be fully represented in the PRIMES
model.
Update 2007
13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
dustry there is much lower growth of CO2 (+6%) compared

with growth of industrial energy consumption (+20%) 5 .
Energy demand for services is projected to be 26% higher
in 2030 than in 2005, reflecting the increasing share of services in modern economies. This development is driven by
increasing demand for electricity (e.g. office equipment).
With this strong penetration of electricity in the service sector, there is a stabilisation of CO2 emissions from services
compared with the 26% increase of energy demand.
On the contrary, energy demand in agriculture increases
least, growing nevertheless by 8% between 2005 and
2030.
Household energy demand is expected to rise by 12% between 2005 and 2030. The increasing number of households (+14% up to 2030), following demographic and lifestyle changes towards smaller household size, is an important factor for this development. On the other hand, there
are some saturation effects concerning heating energy demand. The increasing use of electric appliances and air
conditioning entail rising electricity demand (+34%). Given
this shift towards electricity use by households, CO2 emissions from households remain stable up to 2030 at the present level (compared with a 12% increase in energy demand).
The structure of power generation changes significantly in

favour of renewables, natural gas and solid fuels, whereas
nuclear and oil lose market shares.
6
The renewables share in gross power generation rises to

17.4% in 2010 which falls however short of the indicative
target of the renewables electricity directive indicating
that the measures implemented in the Member-States by
the end of 2006 are not yet sufficient 7 . In any case, the
Baseline scenario shows a dynamic development in renewables penetration in electricity, as the renewables
share in gross generation rises further to 20% in 2020 and
23% in 2030.
This development is clearly driven by the high growth rates
of wind energy especially in this decade; but growth rates
are still impressing in coming decades. In total, wind energy
in 2030 provides over 15 times as much electricity as was
available from this source in 2000. In 2030, wind power is
expected to produce almost as much electricity as hydro.
FIGURE 4: GROSS ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE
5000
4500
Overall, electricity shows the most important increase in

final energy demand (+38% up to 2030). There is also
strong growth of heat from CHP and district heating
(+17%). Oil demand increases by 12% due to growing
transportation fuel demand and despite some replacement
by gas and electricity in stationary uses. Natural gas continues to make inroads for heating purposes (+14%).
4000
Solid fuels continue to decline strongly so that their use

becomes more and more concentrated in some heavy industries. Final demand of renewables almost double, encompassing both traditional uses, such as wood combustion, but also biofuels in transport and solar water heating.
Higher deployment of biofuels is the major driving force for
greater renewables penetration in final demand (as distinct
from renewables used for power generation, where hydro
and wind are established sources with a great potential for
further wind penetration).
1000
Power generation
Following soaring electricity demand, power generation is
expected to grow considerably given the limited potential
for higher electricity imports from outside the EU. Electricity
generation is expected to increase by 35% between 2005
5
It should be noted that CO2 emissions are accounted for in the

sectors where they arise (e.g. power generation) and not in the
sectors that ultimately cause them, such as industry, services or
households using more and more electricity.
14
and 2030. An increasing share of electricity will be produced in form of combined heat and power (up 8 percentage points to reach a 21 % CHP share in 2030).
TWhgross
Renewables
3500
Oil
3000
Gas
2500
2000
SolidFuels
1500
500
Nuclear
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Biomass use for power generation also rises considerably;

solar PV displays high growth rates from a small basis,
while the additional contribution from hydro power is small
as a result of limited additional potential and environmental
restrictions.
Nuclear declines due to political decisions. The nuclear
share falls from over 30% today to only 20% in 2030 despite considerable investment in new nuclear plants in
6
The renewables share in net electricity generation amounts to

17.9% in 2010; net electricity generation corresponds to gross
electricity generation minus the consumption of the auxiliary services of the power station.
7
The comments received from the Member States experts on the
draft baseline suggested a downward revision of wind and hydro
production especially for the short and medium term in several
Member States.
Update 2007
countries without restrictions on nuclear. Overall, the share

of indigenous and carbon free sources (renewables plus
nuclear) decreases somewhat, from currently 45% it
reaches 43% at the end of the projection period.
Solid fuels increase their share in power generation as a
result of prevailing high gas prices and in their function as
replacement for nuclear. Nevertheless, gas continues to
gain market share due to its advantages as clean, efficient
and low carbon fuel. The role of oil diminishes further in
power generation. Overall, the share of fossil fuels increases somewhat in power generation reaching 57% in
2030, up from 55% in 2005.
As a result of these changes towards fuels with zero or low
carbon content (renewables and gas), CO2 emissions from
power generation (+6% by 2030) grow considerably slower
than electricity production (+35%). Consequently, the carbon intensity of power generation declines.
FIGURE 5: RENEWABLES SHARE IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION
(GROSS)
25.0
%
20.0
Geothermal
15.0
Solar,tidaletc.
BiomassWaste
10.0
Wind
Hydro
5.0
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
However, post 2010 the decrease of carbon intensity decelerates on account of the nuclear phase-out becoming
effective and the ensuing replacement of nuclear with coal,
which is not sufficiently compensated by the further penetration of renewables. In addition, high oil and gas prices
discourage further penetration of natural gas, leaving much
scope for solid fuels in the Baseline scenario that does not
assume CO2 targets to be necessarily met.
The increasing electricity demand and to some extent the
higher penetration of intermittent renewables require substantially higher power generation capacities.
The net capacity increase up to 2030 amounts to 227 GW,
which corresponds to 31% of the present generation capacity. In addition, the power plants that will be closed over the
next decades need to be replaced. The net increase of
generation capacity concerns exclusively renewables and
natural gas. Coal and lignite plants due for closure will be
replaced with much more efficient ones strongly increasing
Update 2007
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
solid fuel fired power generation. On the other hand, not all
nuclear plants will be replaced with power stations of the
same type at the end of their techno-economic or "political"
lifetime 8 . This applies also for oil plants on economic
grounds.
CO2 emissions
Energy related CO2 emissions remain below the 1990 level
up to 2010 (by 1.2%) but continue to increase through 2030
as they have already done in this decade. CO2 emissions
exceed the 1990 level by 5.1% in 2020 and by 5.4% in
2030. These results reflect ongoing climate change policies
but also the accession of new Member-States.
The CO2 results for EU-15 (which has a Kyoto target of
minus 8% for greenhouse gases) are much more alarming.
EU-15 CO2 in 2010 (mid-year of the first Kyoto budget period) are projected to be 5.6% higher than they were in
1990 and these emission in EU-15 are expected to increase further by 2030 to 11% above the 1990 level.
Seen from the Baseline perspective, the greenhouse gas
target for 2020 of at least 20% reduction below 1990 for
EU-27 is challenging even taking into account the contribution of other greenhouse gases or Kyoto flexibility
mechanisms.
The Baseline CO2 emission increase of 206 million tons
CO2 between 1990 and 2020 is mainly due to transport
(+403 million tons) and power generation (+84 million tons).
CO2 from industry plummeted in the 1990s (-164 million
tons) and are expected to stay at this low level up to 2030.
Emissions are forecast to remain below the 1990 level in
the other sectors (e.g. services, households) due to fuel
switching to gas and especially electricity, for which the
CO2 emissions are accounted under power generation.
The transport emission increase reflects strong growth in
transport demand for both passenger and freight, a further
change of the modal split towards less efficient modes such
as aviation and road as well as limited improvements in fuel
efficiency especially for cars and trucks.
In power generation, CO2 emissions rise as a result of
strong electricity demand growth accompanied by limited
improvements in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per TWh
electricity production). Power plant carbon intensity is improving moderately, as a result of better energy efficiency
through new power plants as well as renewables and natural gas penetration. However, improvements are limited
through the declining share of nuclear, which is compensated by more coal.
Power plant investments are endogenously determined in the

PRIMES model, unless there are restrictions on e.g. the construction of nuclear plants (e.g. countries having excluded nuclear) or
phase-out decisions.
15
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FIGURE 6: CHANGE OF ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS SINCE

1990
Conclusions
The 2007 Baseline shows several challenges ahead for
energy policy; hence stepping up policies in various fields is
needed.
500
MtCO2
400
300
This concerns in particular energy efficiency to curtail energy demand growth as well as action on renewables to
achieve agreed targets, to further diversify energy supply
and reduce CO2 emissions.
200
100
0
Better energy efficiency should contribute to improving

European competitiveness and will be important for managing external dependence in the context of high energy import prices and a difficult geopolitical environment.
100
200
300
20001990
20101990
20201990
20301990
Transport
Industry
Residential,ServicesandAgriculture
PowerGeneration
In any case, considering the indicative targets set out in

agreed Directives (biofuels, renewables in the internal electricity market), Member-States need to do more compared
with the 2007 Baseline that reflects policy implementation
up to the end of 2006.
EnergyBranchandDistrictHeating
TotalEmissions
FIGURE 7: IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE EU

95
100
90
80
86
84
80
67
70
56
60
50
64
63
48
44
18
20
10
0
Total
1990
16
Solids
2005
This holds even more for the follow up of the ambitious

targets for 2020 agreed at the spring European Council of
March 2007 (at least 20% greenhouse gas reduction, mandatory target of 20% for renewables).
46
40
30
The increased use of indigenous and CO2 free energy

sources, (renewables and nuclear) will help in living up to
the EUs commitments on greenhouse gas emission
through reducing energy related CO2 emissions, while at
the same time improving energy security.
2010
Oil
2020
Gas
Rapid implementation of adopted legislation by MemberStates (e.g. energy services and eco-design Directives),
adoption of the Directives contained in the energy and climate package of January 2008 and the further development of EU legislation (e.g. from Action Plan for Energy
Efficiency), should allow for a more favourable view to the
future.
2030
Update 2007
ENERGY BASELINE TO 2030
EU-27 ENERGY OUTLOOK TO 2030
Update 2007
17
have also been cross-checked with data from the ZeroEmission Technology Platform and the database of VGB.
Introduction
The definition of the Baseline scenario is important because it constitutes the basis for further policy analysis in
addition to its function as a projection on the basis of current trends and policies. The Baseline shows the energy
and CO2 development on the basis of assumptions about
economic growth, population, world energy prices, technology and public policy. Assuming a continuation of current
trends and policies, the Baseline includes no new policy
initiatives to change underlying energy trends, besides policies in place or in the process of being implemented in the
Member-States by the end of 2006.
The Baseline scenario is used as the reference for building
alternative, policy relevant, scenarios, which address issues such as renewables, nuclear, energy efficiency, energy import prices, alternative GDP growth, and climate
change mitigation targets. Policy relevant conclusions may
be drawn by comparing the results of alternative scenarios
against the Baseline scenario.
The Baseline scenario published in this report is based on
statistical information that was available up to June 2007.
The main source of data is Eurostat and in particular the
detailed energy balances 9 per EU Member-State from the
year 1990 up to the year 2005 inclusive.
The statistics on energy prices, as well as all data on macroeconomic and sectoral activities are also based on Eurostat and concern the same time period. The statistics on
world energy prices are based on various sources (IEA,
Eurostat, BP and others) and include data up to the year
2006.
The information on existing energy supply capacities, including the inventory of power generation plants (provided
by ESAP SA), was continuously updated up to mid-2007,
especially regarding new constructions and decommissioning.
The data on potential of resources, such as the renewable
energy resources, were based on the Admire-Rebus database of ECN complemented with information from several
other sources, including technical reports of DG Research
and the European Environment Agency (EEA).
Information on technical-economic characteristics of existing and future energy supply technologies was taken from
the TechPol database developed within a series of DG Research projects, of which the most recent one is CascadeMints. Regarding thermal power technologies, the data
Energy Balances of Eurostat can be found at

:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1073,46587
259&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_product_code=KS-EN07-001
Update 2007
Finally, the policy measures, such as energy taxes and

subsidies, as well as the legislative measures that were
implemented up to year 2006 have been included in the
outlook presented hereinafter.
The draft Baseline scenario projections were discussed
with Member-States experts from the Energy Economic
Analysts Group from April to November 2007. Many comments and pieces of information communicated by the
Member-States have been accommodated in revising the
draft Baseline scenario, while preserving a harmonised
approach to EU energy modelling. This concerns in particular assumptions about energy import prices and economic
growth as well as the consistency of energy imports and
exports between Member-States.
It is thereby unambiguously stated that the projections
shown in this report reflect the point-of-view of the analysts
who also retain the responsibility for all errors and omissions.
1.1
The Nature of the Baseline Scenario
The Baseline scenario is a projection of the future evolution

of the European energy demand and supply system reflecting business-as-usual trends. The scenario does not project a frozen system: dynamic trends and changes are reflected in this scenario. The evolution is considered as an
outcome of market forces without taking into account external or societal costs, as for example the environmental impacts and the eventual threats with respect to security of
energy supply.
In building the Baseline scenario, it has been assumed that
future changes are only influenced by policies and measures adopted in the past: no additional policies and measures are assumed for this scenario.
The Baseline scenario is not a forecast, but a simulation of
how the EU energy system would evolve on the basis of a
continuation of past trends without consideration of market
failures. The Baseline scenario is essentially a marketdriven least cost projection of future energy system developments without taking into consideration environmental
costs and impacts (except for respecting existing legislation
such as the Large Combustion Plant Directive). Effects
related to global warming or the geopolitical risks affecting
security of energy supply are assumed to be neglected by
economic agents in the Baseline.
In particular, the Baseline scenario does not include policies to reduce greenhouse gases in view of the Kyoto and
possible post-Kyoto commitments. No attempt has been
made, in this scenario, to forecast how Europe may act for
climate change mitigation. In addition, the Baseline sce-
19
nario ignores the implications from increasing the volume of

geopolitically sensitive imports, namely imports of oil and
natural gas.
TABLE 3: MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE PRIMES MODEL

Technical-economic parameters
2
2.1
Main Assumptions for Baseline Scenario
CO2 prices
Introduction
The PRIMES model, run by the E3MLab of National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), has been used to quantify the Baseline scenario for all the EU-27 Member-States
up to the year 2030. PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model
of the EU energy system providing projections for the medium and long term starting from 2010 and running up to
2030 with results for every fifth year. The PRIMES model
was complemented by a series of specialised models and
databases, including the POLES world energy model and
the GEM-E3 macroeconomic model.
The PRIMES model includes many details on a large number of technologies in the demand and supply sides of the
energy system and ensures that energy demand and supply behaviour, energy prices and investment are determined endogenously. Cost and technical parameter change
over time reflecting technical progress which further influences long run marginal costs. These also depend on expected fuel prices, discount rates and demand for energy.
Load issues (i.e. base-load needs, peak load applications)
and synchronisation with heat demand are accommodated
in the modelling process. The investment in new equipment
or plants is entering a dynamic capital accumulation
mechanism with explicit accounting of capital vintages. The
projections depend on the existing stock of capital, in all
energy sectors, for which the model uses detailed inventory
data.
Power plant investment decisions are driven by economics
unless there is different evidence for the short term (plants
already firmly planned or under construction) or diverging
national energy policies for the medium to long term (e.g.
on nuclear). Utilisation of existing plants is a result of the
model that stems from the interaction of electricity and
other fuel demand, prices, available capacities as well as
synchronisation with heat demand in CHP plants. Information received on e.g. plant closure or indigenous production
trajectories was included in the construction of the scenario.
The projections take into account the different potentials
and possibilities of the Member-States in terms of renewables, indigenous resources, imports and investment in
new infrastructure and in developing new sites for power
generation. The model considers these potential resources,
the exploitation of which follows increasing marginal costs.
The assumptions of the Baseline scenario (see Table 3) for
the PRIMES model are presented below.
20
Policy assumptions
Degree days
Discount rates
Population and household size
GDP and sectoral production
Energy import prices
Tax rates
2.2
Energy Technology Progress
The Baseline scenario takes into account energy efficiency

gains, the penetration of new technologies and renewables,
as well as changes in the energy mix driven by relative
prices and costs. Policies implemented in the past on promoting energy efficiency, renewables and new technologies, as well as market trends bring about energy intensity
improvements and energy technology changes.
Energy efficiency gains in the Baseline scenario are driven
by the aim of minimizing costs and maximizing economic
benefits without any reference to possible further benefits
from environmental improvement.
Similarly, renewables and CHP development are driven by
private economic considerations taking into account supportive policies which are assumed to continue in the Baseline and gradually peter out in the longer term. Therefore
market forces and least cost considerations drive the development of renewables and cogeneration of heat and
power taking into account a continuation of support
schemes.
The technical-economic characteristics of existing and new
energy technologies used in the demand and the supply
sectors of the energy system evolve over time and improve
according to exogenously specified trends. According to the
Baseline logic, consumers and suppliers are generally hesitant to adopt new technologies before they become sufficiently mature. They behave as if they perceive a high cost
(or a high subjective discount rate) when deciding upon
adoption of new technologies.
Public policies, through campaigns, industrial policy, R&D
support and other means, aim at pushing more rapid adoption of new technologies by removing uncertainties associated with their use. In this way, the technologies themselves reach maturity more rapidly as a result of learningby-doing effects and economies of scale. No additional
policies promoting new technologies, apart from support
Update 2007
schemes to renewables following past trends, are assumed

in the Baseline scenario.
Nevertheless, agents do adopt new technologies just because they aim at reducing the costs of energy services.
This process is also supported by the EU and national energy technology research programmes and other policies of
the Member-States promoting new and cleaner technologies. GDP growth is therefore associated with continuous
improvement of energy intensity, in addition to the effects
from structural change in the economy.
2.3
Technology Policy Assumptions
Policies supporting or regulating energy technologies are

extrapolated from past trends without assuming any new
initiatives. Generally the technology policies are defined
and deployed differently by individual Member-States of the
EU. They mainly concern renewable energies, cogeneration and nuclear power.
The Baseline excludes explicitly nuclear power in eleven
Member-States and in three others a gradual phase out of
nuclear power is under way following political decisions.
Some new Member-States have agreed to decommission
certain old nuclear plants with safety concerns as part of
their EU adhesion agreement. The extension of the lifetime
of old plants is an issue under consideration in several
Member-States but the Baseline does not include the extension of lifetime of nuclear plants beyond the dates specified in current licenses. For the case of Sweden, extension
of lifetime is assumed since a firm decision has already
been taken.
Only a few new nuclear plants are under construction in the
European Union. The Baseline scenario assumes that
these will be completed as planned. Finally in some Member-States there exist plans for new nuclear power plants
which are presently uncertain and so they were considered
as mere candidates in the model-based projections, i.e.
their construction according to the model-based analysis
only depends on their cost-effectiveness.
Member-States have adopted a variety of policies and
mechanisms for supporting renewable energy. The feed-in
tariffs are applied in twenty Member-States consisting in
obliging the power system to absorb electricity from renewables at a given price or premium. Ten Member-States
have implemented a quota system or a purchase obligation
system (sometimes coexisting with some form of feed-in
tariffs), which consists in obliging electricity suppliers to
include renewable energy within their supply portfolio.
Many Member-States also use investment subsidies, tax
rebates or other incentives to support renewables. The detailed inventory of these policy instruments for the purpose
of the model-based analysis was provided by ObservER.
Update 2007
Independently of their exact form, all supportive mechanisms for renewables imply a reduction in the cost of capital
which provides incentives to investors in renewable energy.
TABLE 4: ASSUMPTIONS ON NUCLEAR ENERGY
Nuclear Phase-out:
Belgium, Germany, Sweden but only after already decided
extension of lifetime
No Nuclear Power:
Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Italy, Ireland
Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal
Possible Nuclear Investment but no extension of lifetime of
old plants:
Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Finland, Hungary,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, UK
Early Decommissioning of Nuclear plants in new MS before
2010:
Bulgaria (1760 MW), Lithuania (2600 MW), Slovakia (880
MW)
Firm Decisions about Commissioning new Nuclear plants:
Bulgaria (2000 MW, 2020-2025), Finland (1600 MW,
2015), France (1600 MW, 2015), Lithuania (1600 MW,
2020), Romania (706 MW, 2010)
For example the pure feed-in tariff system entails a significant reduction in market-related and financial risks of investment which implies a reduction in risk premium rates
and lending interest rates associated with capital investment. The guarantee on the purchase price ensures that
revenues are constant even in time segments with low
marginal system or wholesale prices. In addition, the obligation to purchase electricity from renewables implies that
the investor in renewables is not facing load balancing
costs and reserve costs, which is important for intermittent
renewable sources. The quota system, if well managed,
also implies assurance of revenue streams to investors in
renewables, being also considered as equivalent to a reduction in the cost of capital.
Prior to the use of the model, the policy instruments which
are in place in the Member-States have been quantified in
a uniform way so as to determine an equivalent investment
incentive for each renewable technology form and for each
country. This incentive was expressed as a reduction of
capital cost of renewable technologies. The equivalent investment incentive was then extrapolated over time by assuming a declining trend per unit of renewables production.
However, given the trend towards higher renewables deployment in the future, total support budget for renewables
increases smoothly over time. It is assumed that the incentives per unit of renewables get close to zero by 2025, except for technologies such as solar photovoltaic and tidal,
for which continuation of support is important to obtain significant learning-by-doing progress.
21
FIGURE 8: HISTOGRAM OF EQUIVALENT INVESTMENT INCENTIVES ON RES

24
22
20
18
16
14
o
N ofMS
12
perclass 10
8
6
4
2
0
WindOnshore
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
SolarPV
and
storage
infrastructure
which, in the absence of a
strengthening of climate change
mitigation policies is not justified
in the context of the Baseline
Scenario.
The Baseline scenario shows

that the market for biomass and
biofuels is likely to develop substantially. The Baseline condi010% 1020% 2030% 3040%
010% 1020% 2030% 3040%
tions presuppose investment
and infrastructure development
EquivalentInvestment Subsidyin%
EquivalentInvestment Subsidyin%
in sectors such as agriculture,
2005 2010 2015 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
forest, waste management and
in sectors performing preDue to technology progresses the unit investment cost of
treatment, transport and processing of biomass and waste
renewable energy progressively decreases so that deresources. The feasibility in terms of land and resource
creasing incentives over time do not impede further investavailability and the related costs have been cross-checked
ment.
through biomass chain calculations.
Figure 8 summarises the assumptions about the equivalent
investment incentives for two selected technologies,
namely wind onshore and solar photovoltaic. The figure
shows that in 2020 most of the Member-States are assumed to apply an equivalent incentive less than 10%,
whereas only 10 of them were in that low incentive class in
2005. The figure shows that there is higher discrepancy
among the Member-States regarding support to solar PV
and also that for the future it is assumed that more Member-States apply higher incentives on solar PV.
Policies supporting cogeneration of electricity and heat also
differ across the Member-States. The data on cogeneration
are based on two detailed surveys by Eurostat, which were
used to calibrate the model to the base years, namely 2000
and 2005, concerning the specific CHP technologies and
the fuels used, as they differ by country. The cogeneration
directive facilitates prioritizing the CHP plants in the overall
dispatching given that a CHP plant has a higher overall
thermal efficiency but a lower electric efficiency than a pure
electricity plant. The specific market arrangements about
CHP plants dispatching differ by country. As far as the
model is concerned, the consideration of overall thermal
efficiency as a driver for CHP development, subject to operational and infrastructure constraints, acts in a similar
way as encouragement provided for in the Cogeneration
Directive.
The framework conditions in the Baseline do not provide for
the deployment of new energy carriers, such as hydrogen
and methanol, taking into account that the time horizon is
too short for these options to make significant inroads. The
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies are
among the candidate power technologies but their deployment depends heavily on the development of CO2 transport
22
FIGURE 9: BIOFUELS TARGETS AND PROJECTED TRENDS

8.0
%BiofuelsintheEU
5.75
6.0
Target
4.0
2
Actual
Trends
2.0
0.0
2000
2005
2006
2010
2015
The Biofuels Directive sets an indicative target of 5.75% by

2010, for the share of biofuels in petrol and diesel for transportation purposes. This Directive has been taken into account in the Baseline Scenario but the effective development of biofuels was simulated by using the model. The
latest statistics about development of biofuels by MemberState indicate a slow pace, lagging behind actual targets
set by the Member-States, both for 2005 and 2010. In 2005
the share of biofuels was 1% and this share increased to
1.8% in 2006, against a target of 2% in 2005 and 5.75% in
2010.
The development of supporting infrastructure and changes
in agriculture seem slower than initially expected. In addition, the distribution of developments by country is also
unequal, reflecting differences in biomass potential and
actual supportive policies. As it is the case with other targets (e.g. renewables targets for electricity generation in
2010), the model-based projection takes into account the
policies implemented for achieving such targets, but it does
not impose these targets as a result of the model.
Update 2007
The projections show that the overall EU target is likely to

be achieved around 2015. It was also assumed that support schemes to biofuels are applied in all MS and are determined so as to render them competitive, vis--vis the
competing fuels. For the period beyond 2015, it was assumed that subsidies gradually decrease, but that both
economies of scale and maturity of infrastructure allow for
further penetration of biofuels in transportation.
2.4
Legislation up to the end of 2006
The Baseline scenario considers that legislation that was in

place up to year 2006 is effectively implemented but it does
not anticipate new legislation, including legislation already
adopted by e.g. the Council and Parliament but not yet implemented in the Member-States (e.g. Directive on end-use
energy efficiency and energy services).
Part of the EU legislation has a strong subsidiarity component as regards its actual implementation (e.g. building
codes following the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive). Some legislation does not stipulate strong enforcing
mechanisms and therefore its implementation pace is
somewhat uncertain.
Policy instruments such as voluntary agreements, labelling
of appliances, standards and even some weak financial
incentives, were considered as a background policy that at
least partly explain and support the trends displayed in the
Baseline scenario. This is the case, for example, of efficiency gains in electric appliances, of energy savings in
buildings and of improvement of energy performance of
new cars, as projected in the Baseline scenario.
The Baseline does not ensure compliance with Kyoto
commitments as CO2 developments are one of the main
outcomes of the modelling informing about the effects of
implemented policies. Neither does it impose the postKyoto targets as set at the 2007 European Spring Council.
However, it is assumed in the Baseline scenario that the
current ETS system operates and clears at a Carbon Price
of 20 2005 /tCO2 in 2010 mainly based on free allocation
of allowances. For the post Kyoto period it is assumed that
the Carbon Prices increases smoothly to 24 2005/tCO2 in
2030 and that it continues to apply on the current ETS sectors. For the purpose of the Baseline it is assumed that
costs increases induced by the Carbon Prices through
changes in investment and dispatching are reflected on
consumer prices, while there is no passing through of opportunity costs as such.
Tax rates 10 are kept constant in real terms as they were in
2006 unless otherwise provided for in the Energy Taxation
10
The current level of taxation in the Member States can be

downloaded through the following link:
Update 2007
Directive. This concerns transition periods for some Member-States to adapt to EU minimum tax rates from current
lower levels over time, with the minimum rates being applied at the end of the respective transition period.
By 2010, the first year after 2005 with model-based results,
all EU-15 Member-States are assumed to comply with the
energy taxation Directive, whereas the compliance period
for the new Member-States (NM-12) is prolonged according
to the amendments of 29.4.2004 of the taxation Directive.
The Baseline scenario takes into account differences between Member-States in implementing particular energy
policies.
Table 5 shows how the most relevant Directives/policy instruments have been taken into account in the Baseline
scenario.
2.5
Discount Rates
The PRIMES model used for building the Baseline scenario

is based on individual decision making of agents demanding or supplying energy and on price-driven interactions in
markets. The modelling approach is not taking the perspective of a social planner and does not follow an overall least
cost optimization of the energy system. Therefore, social
discount rates play no role in determining model solutions
though they can be used for ex post cost evaluations.
On the other hand discount rates pertaining to individual
agents play an important role in their decision behaviour.
Agents economic decisions are usually based on the concept of cost of capital, which depending on the sector has
been termed weighted average cost of capital (for firms) or
subjective discount rate (for individuals). In both cases, the
rate used to discount future costs and revenues involves a
risk premium which reflects business practices, various risk
factors or even the perceived cost of lending. The discount
rate for individuals also reflects an element of risk averseness.
The discount factors vary across sectors and may differ
substantially from social discount rates (such as 4-5%)
which are used in social long-term planning. For the Baseline scenario, the discount factors assumed range from 8%
(in real terms) applicable to large utilities up to 20% applicable to individuals. Additional risk premium rates are applied for some new technologies at their early stages of
development.
More specifically, for large power and steam generation
companies the cost of capital increases from 8.2% in 2005
to 9.0% for 2015-2030. For small companies the cost of
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/taxation/excise_duties/energ
y_products/rates/index_en.htm
23
TABLE 5: SUMMARY OF EU LEGISLATION UP TO 2006

EU Policy
National policy measures
Consideration for the Baseline Scenario
Biofuels Directive
Tax exemptions, obligations to mix
Measures lead to projection close to targets
RES-E Directive
Feed-in tariffs, quota systems, cost

incentives
Equivalent investment incentive
Large Combustion Plants Directives
Standards
Incorporated in techno-economic data
CHP Directive
Possibility for financial incentives,

obligations
Dispatching facilitation
Buildings Directive
Standards, other measures
National implementation
ACEA agreements on cars
Voluntary agreements
Partly included in techno-economic data however

recognizing its failure
Series of Labelling Directives
Market transparency
Background support
IPPC Directive
Best Available Technologies
Directives on energy efficiency for boilers, refrigerators and ballasts for fluorescent lighting
Standards
Directive to limit CO2 emissions by

improving energy efficiency (SAVE)
Drawing up and implementation of

Member-State programmes
Background support
Energy Star Programme
Voluntary labelling programmes
Effects included in techno-economic data
National Emission Ceilings Directive
Emission limitation
Effects from compliance partly taken into account.

Full compliance may require additional measures in
individual Member-States compared to the Baseline
scenario.
ETS Directive
Emission limitation
Taken into account with a 20 /t CO2 price assumption for the Kyoto period with slightly rising CO2 prices
thereafter
Energy Taxation Directive
Harmonization of minimum excise

tax rates on energy products
Incorporated in assumptions about taxation
capital is 9.5% in 2005 and 10.5% in 2015 2030. In industry, services and agriculture the discount rate amounts to
12% for the whole projection period. Households have an
even higher discount rate of 17.5%. For transport, the discount rate depends on the type of operator. Private passenger transport investments (e.g. for cars) are based on a
discount rate of 17.5%, while for trucks and inland navigation the rate is 12%. Public transport energy investment is
simulated with an assumed discount rate of 8% reflecting
the acceptance of longer pay-back periods than those required in industry or private households. All these rates are
in real terms, i.e. after deducting inflation.
24
2.6
Other Assumptions
The degree days, reflecting climate conditions, are kept

constant at the 2000 level, which is higher than the long
term average without assuming any trend towards further
warming. The degree days in 2000 were fairly similar to the
ones in 2005. This allows comparison of recent statistics
with the projection figures, without entailing the need for
climate correction.
All monetary values are expressed in constant terms of
2005 (without inflation). The dollar exchange rate is assumed at 1.25 $/.
Update 2007
Outlook on World Energy and Prices
A world energy outlook was carried out to support the energy import prices assumptions of the Baseline, which constitute a major input to the EU energy outlook. The analysis
also aimed at putting the Baseline scenario for the EU in
the global context. For this purpose, a global energy scenario was quantified by using the POLES 11 model and the
Prometheus 12 model.
The model-based analysis provides projections for about
50 countries or groups of countries. The results presented
below are summarised and are aggregated in few world
regions. To illustrate some of the projections, a grouping of
countries in three categories is used: Europe/OECD
(Europe, North America, Japan and Pacific OECD),
emerging economies (Asia, Latin America and Asia excluding CIS 13 countries), and CIS & Middle East, the latter
being shown as one group because they constitute the
main oil and gas producers. The global Baseline scenario
developed with the world energy models takes a businessas-usual perspective of energy trends and assumes no
disruptions or adverse effects on energy demand and supply following past trends.
The World Baseline scenario projects changes in the structure of the energy mix, the distribution of energy demand
and supply by world region and in the energy intensity of
economic growth. These changes are driven by demographic and economic growth assumptions that differ by
world region, reflecting current growth dynamics.
3.1
Demographic and Economic Growth

Assumptions
World population is expected to expand by 0.9% pa on average over the next 25 years. There are significant regional
differences. The population in Europe and in the OECD is
projected to grow at rates significantly lower than world
average. High growth of population is assumed to occur
mainly in Africa (+2.1% pa) and in the Middle East (+1.6%
pa) whereas in Latin America (+1.1% pa) and Asia (+0.9%
pa) growth rates are assumed to be close to the world average.
The increase in world population occurs almost exclusively
in developing economies. It affects the magnitude and the
structure of energy demand trends. World economic growth
and especially the differentiated growth rates by region are
the major drivers of change in the global energy system.
11
Model developed and used by IEPE (Institut dEconomie et de

Politique de lEnergie/CNRS-LEPII Grenoble)
12
The Prometheus world energy model developed by N. Kouvaritakis and V. Panos at E3MLab/NTUA is stochastic and allowed the
estimation of probability distributions of future world energy prices.
13
CIS: Community of Independent States
Update 2007
Currently the world economy grows at a rather high rate

close to 5% per year; growth is clearly driven by developing
countries and mainly China and India.
The Baseline scenario assumes that the pace of global
economic growth will continue in the short/medium term
and that in the longer term growth will slow-down reaching
an average growth rate of 3.3% per year over the period
2010-2030.
Growth in the emerging economies is assumed to be high
(7% per year) during the first decade and then slowdown to
about 4.5% per year on average in the period 2010-2030.
3.2
World Energy Baseline Scenario
The projections, based on the POLES and Prometheus

models, take into account world energy resources and the
formation of world energy prices as a result of interactions
between energy demand and energy supply reflecting resource availability and technological progress.
The world energy Baseline scenario projects global energy
intensity of GDP to decrease steadily at an average rate of
1.7% per year in the period 2010 to 2030. This improvement is in line with past trends and reflects the changing
structure of the economy which benefits from progress of
energy technology in all sectors. Nevertheless, the projection shows that the world is likely to require 70% more primary energy in 2030 than in 2001. Compared to 2010, total
primary energy consumption in 2030 is projected to be 40%
higher.
The changing regional structure of the global economy
drives a substantial increase in the relative share of emerging economies in global energy needs. Energy demand in
Asia, mainly driven by economic growth in China and India,
is projected to increase at a rate which is four times higher
than that of OECD. In other words, emerging economies
contribute 75% of the increase of global primary energy
demand from 2001 to 2030.
It was found (see Figure 10) that the year 2011 is likely to
be a turning point when emerging economies, of which
China and India will represent 50% in terms of total primary
energy consumption, will start consuming higher volumes
of energy than the OECD. Total energy needs of emerging
economies will become 45% larger than OECDs demand
by 2030.
The predominant role of fossil fuels in total energy consumption is projected to remain. Oil demand is projected to
increase by 1.5% per year and attain a share of 32% in
total primary energy needs, slightly down from 36% in
2001.
25
TABLE 6: WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS

Mtoe
Gross Inland
Consumption
2001
2010
2020
Shares in %
Annual % change
2030
2001
2010
2030
2001-10
2010-20
2020-30
Europe-OECD
5093
5528
5998
6184
51.2
44.2
36.1
0.92
0.82
0.30
Europe
1925
2130
2421
2584
19.4
17.0
15.1
1.13
1.29
0.65
North America
2521
2717
2872
2910
25.3
21.7
17.0
0.84
0.56
0.13
Japan & Pacific
647
681
705
690
6.5
5.4
4.0
0.56
0.35
-0.21
3548
5475
7494
9053
35.7
43.8
52.9
4.94
3.19
1.91
2433
3981
5440
6323
24.5
31.8
36.9
5.62
3.17
1.51
Latin America
611
790
1090
1452
6.1
6.3
8.5
2.90
3.27
2.91
Africa
504
703
963
1278
5.1
5.6
7.5
3.77
3.19
2.87
1302
1501
1663
1885
13.1
12.0
11.0
1.59
1.03
1.27
895
925
939
997
9.0
7.4
5.8
0.37
0.15
0.61
4.1
4.6
5.2
3.91
2.32
2.06
2.56
1.94
1.23
Emerging Economies
Asia (excl. CIS)
CIS and Middle East

C.I.S.
Middle East
World (incl. bunkers)
408
576
724
888
10121
12708
15401
17397
FIGURE 10: WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION BY AGGREGATE REGIONS
PrimaryEnergyProduction(Mtoe)
PrimaryEnergyConsumption(Mtoe)
10000
Emerging
9000
Economies
8000
7000
Europe
6000
OECD
5000
4000
3000
CISand
2000
Middle
East
1000
0
Emerging
Economies
CISand
Middle
East
2028
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
Europe
OECD
2001
2028
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
FIGURE 11: GLOBAL ENERGY MIX AND CO2 EMISSIONS
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Renewables
26
GrossInlandConsumption (Mtoe)
2001
2010
2020
2030
1297
1589
1811
2019
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
CO2 Emissions(MtCO2 )
2001
2010
2020
2030
CISandMiddle
East
3237
3683
4026
4546
Naturalgas
2121
2676
3583
4162
Oil
3632
4153
5020
5545
Coal,lignite
2408
3422
3900
4241
Emerging
Economies
8027
13567
18680
22205
Nuclear
671
735
924
1188
EuropeOECD
12154
13156
13815
13666
Update 2007
Coal and gas display the largest increases, 80 90% up in

2030 from 2001, driven mainly by power generation. Electricity demand is projected to increase at an average rate of
3% per year, reflecting a general trend favouring electrification of final demand, except transportation.
Within the power generation mix, coal accounts of 36% of
power generation throughout the projection period and gas
reaches a share of 38% up from 29% in 2001. Nuclear energy and renewables are projected to increase in the world
Baseline scenario at rates that keep their shares in total
primary energy needs constant. Their growth rates are
lower than that of gas for power generation.
FIGURE 12: STRUCTURE OF OIL SUPPLY

SharesinOilproduction(%)Changefrom2001
MiddleEast:33Mb/d
morein2030
30.2
49.2
C.I.S:2Mb/dmorein
2030
10.8
LatinAmerica:2Mb/d
morein2030
11.6
11.6
14.6
Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion are projected to increase by 2.9% per year in 2001-2010 and by
1.4% per year in 2010-2030. The annual emissions in 2030
are 72.5% higher than in 2001. Carbon intensity of primary
energy consumption is projected to increase by 0.4% per
year in 2001-2010 and decline by 0.1% per year in 20102030.
The differential rates of growth of energy consumption
among world regions imply that CO2 emissions in emerging
economies increase much more than emissions in emerging economies. The Baseline scenario shows that emerging
economies are responsible for 84% of additional CO2 emissions in 2030 as compared with 2001.
3.3
World Energy Markets and Prices
The projections show that total oil demand in 2030 will be

around 2000 Mtoe higher than it was in 2001; 93% of incremental oil needs is due to the growth of emerging
economies. Due to lack of resources, the emerging economies will have to import 90% of their incremental oil needs
mainly from Middle East and secondarily the CIS countries.
Total oil production is projected to reach 110 Mb/d (million
barrels per day), up from 72.6 Mb/d in 2001.
The world oil outlook is based on resource data supporting
the view that oil supply can meet a smoothly growing demand at affordable prices over the next twenty five years.
Although about 900 Gbl (billion of barrels) of oil have been
produced today, identified reserves correspond to 1,100
Gbl and yet undiscovered conventional resources may add
600 Gbl; thus total recoverable oil amounts to about 2,600
Gbl, including cumulative production. The projection includes a dynamic treatment of the oil discovery process
and assumes technological progress allowing the quantities
of oil that can be recovered from the different resources
and the emergence of non conventional oil in the long term.
It must be noted, that of the 1,700 Gbl of oil that remains to
be produced 800 Gbl come from the Gulf region and more
than 200 Gbl from the rest of OPEC countries.
Update 2007
9.6
13.1
9.5
9.1
2001
Africa:5Mb/dmorein
2030
NorthAmerica:4Mb/d
morein2030
11.1
Asia:3Mb/dmorein
2030
12.0
Europe:4Mb/dmorein
2030
2.2
3.6
2030
Pacific:0Mb/dmorein
2030
FIGURE 13: STRUCTURE OF GAS SUPPLY

SharesinGas production(%)Changefrom2001
MiddleEast:939bcm
morein2030
8.9
5.6
23.9
Africa:466bcmmorein
2030
27.7
12.5
5.5
20.2
LatinAmerica:285bcm
morein2030
28.7
8.7
NorthAmerica:29bcm
morein2030
15.2
Asia:278bcmmorein
2030
10.7
Europe:36bcmmorein
2030
9.7
12.2
2001
7.0
2030
C.I.S:294bcmmorein
2030
Pacific:47bcmmorein
2030
The total volume of natural gas produced annually is projected to double from 2001 to 2030. The increase is more
than 2000 Mtoe and is mainly due to emerging economies
(60%) and secondarily to Europe-OECD (25%). The latter
lacking additional gas resources will import in 2030 about
40% of their gas needs, up from 18% in 2001. Emerging
economies, being net exporters in 2001, will have to import
almost 20% of their gas needs in 2030. Middle East and
CIS countries are projected to take a dominant position in
27
the world gas market, exporting in 2030 50% of their gas

production, up from 17% in 2001.
TABLE 7: FOSSIL FUELS - DEMAND AND SUPPLY
Changes in 2030 from 2001 (Mtoe)
Oil
Europe-OECD
% change from 2001
Consumption
Production
-45
-17
-2.2
-2.0
Emerging Economies
1868
192
% change from 2001
166.6
15.2
CIS and Middle East
141
1738
% change from 2001
36.2
114.3
World
2062
% change from 2001
Natural Gas
Europe-OECD
% change from 2001
1913
55.4
Consumption
Production
524
96
47.6
10.6
Emerging Economies
1274
885
% change from 2001
377.4
200.5
CIS and Middle East
290
1061
% change from 2001
44.9
136.7
World
2087
% change from 2001
Coal and Lignite

Europe-OECD
% change from 2001
2041
100.3
Consumption
Production
238
307
21.9
29.9
Emerging Economies
1572
1390
% change from 2001
145.5
117.8
79
136
CIS and Middle East

% change from 2001
World
% change from 2001
42.6
68.4
1889
1833
80.3
The world gas outlook is based on resource data indicating

that today the ratio of cumulative production to total recoverable resources is still low. Although in the case of gas the
gains in recoverable resources due to technological progress are limited, gas resources are sufficient to meet
growing demand: cumulative production of gas is projected
to reach 50% of total recoverable resources only after
2030.
It is worth mentioning that the world energy Baseline scenario projects a growing regional concentration of oil and
gas production. The share of CIS and Middle-East countries in global production of oil and gas reaches 52.5% in
2030, up from 40% in 2001. This result reflects the resource data on which projections are based. Highly growing
consumption in emerging economies will mainly require the
additional quantities of oil and gas. At a lesser degree, additional production will replace the declining indigenous
resources of the developing countries in which demand for
oil and gas increases far less than in emerging economies.
Summarising, the world energy scenario involves significant changes in the regional structure and the total volume
of demand and supply of oil and gas. However, the resources of oil and gas are sufficient for ensuring a smooth
evolution of oil and gas prices.
For the purpose of scenario construction it is assumed that
demand for oil and gas is well anticipated by investors who
by taking timely supply actions ensure a smooth evolution
of prices. So price spikes are excluded in this scenario.
However, given that the current market situation is characterized by rather tight supply margins, the Baseline scenario projects that oil and gas prices will remain at a rather
high level, compared with their level in the period 1990 to
2002.
The world oil price is projected to increase from 54.5 $/boe
(barrel of oil equivalent) in 2005 to 61.1 $/boe (in real
terms, i.e. money of 2005) in 2020 and 62.8 $/boe in 2030.
Natural gas prices are projected as linked with oil prices.
This view is taken not only because existing long term gas
procurement contracts index gas prices to oil, but also because market dynamics justify persistence of this linkage in
the long term. As natural gas is potentially a substitute to
oil, for example through gas to liquids (GTL) technology,
the demand for gas is expected to rise worldwide and its
cost-supply relationship reflects highly increasing marginal
costs.
TABLE 8: BASELINE PRICES OF FOSSIL FUELS
However, the gas resources needed to cover incremental

demand are concentrated in a small number of countries,
namely in Middle East and in CIS, and secondarily in Africa.
$'2005/boe 14
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Oil
54.5
54.5
57.9
61.1
62.3
62.8
Gas
34.6
41.5
43.4
46
47.2
47.6
The projection shows a gradual development of an LNG

market at world scale, which however starts attaining a
significant market share only towards the end of the time
horizon. Therefore, access of developing and emerging
economies to gas resources is projected to take place
mainly through pipeline routes, new and existing. Both for
oil and gas supply the role of the Middle East is critical for
meeting demand in the longer term.
Coal
14.8
13.7
14.3
14.7
14.8
14.9
Coal prices are projected to rise at far lower rates than oil
and gas as a result of high coal resources and more favourable geopolitical conditions. The total quantity of coal
demand is projected to rise significantly, mainly driven by
increasing demand of emerging countries. However, the
14
28
Assumed dollar exchange rate equal to 1.25 $/.
Update 2007
distribution of coal resources is such that emerging countries can produce a substantial part of their incremental
demand for coal.
The relationships between world energy demand, fossil fuel
resources and world energy prices have also been analysed by using the Prometheus stochastic world energy
model, which produces probability distributions of future
world energy prices up to 2050. The model ensures consistency of world energy demand and supply with the resulting
probability distributions of energy prices.
The price scenario used for the Baseline scenario reflects
the median case of the Prometheus stochastic analysis of
world energy markets which produces results showing
probability distributions of future world energy prices.
The price trajectory shown in Figure 14 implies that the

competitiveness of gas vis--vis coal deteriorates steadily:
the gas to coal price ratio, increases from 1.5 in the 90s
and 2.5 in 2006, to reach 3 before 2030.
Figure 14 shows the projection of average prices of fossil
fuels imported into Europe and compares it with statistics
up to 2006. This graph shows the continuous decline of
competitiveness of gas vis--vis coal, a trend which is expected to influence future investment choices for power
generation. The gas to oil price ratio is projected to be stable up to 2030.
FIGURE 14: IMPORT PRICES OF HYDROCARBONS TO EUROPE
100
$'2005/boe
90
80
70
Oil
60
50
40
Gas
30
20
Coal
10
0
1980
1985
Update 2007
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
29
4
4.1
Outlook on EU Economic Activity

Demographic Outlook
EU-27 population is projected to remain rather stable,

peaking in 2020 at 496.4 million. However, the population
in new Member-States (NM-12) is projected to decline by
7.5 million people or 7.2% between 2005 and 2030. The
NM-12 accounts by 2030 for 19.4% of the EU-27 population, down from 21.2% in 2005 15 .
A key demographic factor driving energy demand in households is the household size, i.e. the number of persons per
household.
16
Following UN projections and information from MemberStates, the average household size in the EU-27 is expected to decline from 2.4 persons in 2005 to 2.1 persons
in 2030.
Rising life expectancy, combined with declining birth rates

and changes in societal and economic conditions, explain
the reduction of average household size both in the EU-15
and in NM-12. This trend implies a significant increase in
the number of households, adding 28.9 million households
between 2005 and 2030 in the EU-27, despite stability of
total population. Given the increasing number of homes to
heat and the fact that appliances are frequently owned by
households and not individuals, the rising number of
households drives the increase in energy demand in the
residential sector.
4.2
Macroeconomic Outlook
The EU economic growth scenario underlying the Baseline

scenario can be considered as optimistic. The EU economy
is projected to steadily grow at an average rate of 2.2% per
year until 2030.
The longer-term global economic prospects are assumed to
remain generally positive. EU-27 is projected to benefit
from the Lisbon economic reform process, from the completion of the Internal Market and from a continued increase in
world trade reflecting globalisation and the removal of trade
barriers.
This global context drives a sustained rate of growth of
GDP but at the same time brings about structural changes
in terms of sectoral composition of EU GDP. The long term
economic growth projection does not focus on short-term
business cycle phenomena and possible short-term pres-
15
Eurostat online database (Population projections - Baseline scenario) - see http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/

United Nations: Global Urban Observatory and Statistics Unit of
UN-HABITAT (UN Centre for Human Settlements): Human Settlement Statistical Database version 4. Also available at:
http://ww2.unhabitat.org/programmes/guo/statistics.asp
16
30
sures, such as those through inflation or exchange rate

fluctuations.
The economic growth projections provide the details by
sector and by Member-State necessary to ensure consistency between energy and the economy. The projected
economic and sectoral variables are the main explanatory
factors for the formation of energy demand in all sectors,
including transportation, industrial production and the living
or working conditions in houses and buildings. Of course
there is uncertainty about the macroeconomic projections:
higher economic growth might materialise if the Lisbon
economic reform agenda is more successfully implemented
and also lower economic growth may be experienced as a
result of more abrupt changes in the global economic context.
The GDP projections for EU-27 Member-States are based
on the Economic and Financial Affairs DG forecasts of
spring 2007, for the short term (2006-2008) 17 and on pertinent long term studies of this DG for the period up to
2030 18 .
Furthermore, additional inputs were taken into account from
Member-States stability programmes and other national
long-term projections. In order to ensure consistency, the
general equilibrium model GEM-E3 19 was also used to
quantify in detail the sectoral figures that feed into the
PRIMES model for energy system projections.
The macroeconomic scenario reflects a changing structure
of the EU economy, both as regards the sectors of activity
and the differential growth rates of the Member-States. A
basic assumption is that the level of economic prosperity of
the Member-States will tend to converge, but this will not be
completed before the end of the projection period. Evidently, the integration of the new Member-States into the
European Union is assumed to generate accelerated
growth in these economies.
The Baseline economic outlook of EU-27 is dominated by
the evolution of the EU-15 economy. This is because the
contribution of new Member-States, despite their much
faster growth over the projection period (+4.1% pa in 20052030 compared to +2.0% per year in EU-15), remains
rather limited in terms of overall EU-27 GDP. By 2030, NM-
17
European Commission: Economic Forecasts, Spring 2007

(EUROPEAN ECONOMY 2/2007. Office for Official Publications of
the EC). Also available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication_sum
mary7056_en.htm.
18
European Commission, DG ECFIN Long Run Labour Productivity and Potential Growth Rate Projections for the EU25 countries
up to 2050 (information note for Members of the EPCs working
group an ageing populations), ECFIN/50485/04-EN.
19
The GEM-E3 model has been constructed under the coordination of NTUA within collaborative projects supported by DG
Research involving CES-KULeuven and ZEW.
Update 2007
TABLE 9: MACROECONOMIC AND OTHER DRIVERS FOR EU-27 ENERGY DEMAND, 1990-2030
Annual Growth
1990- 2000- 2010
2000 2010 203
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
8109
8712
10046
10949
12430
14059
15687
17266
18687
2.17
2.15
2.06
353
375
416
448
503
566
628
685
734
1.67
1.91
1.91
Non Energy Intensive Industry
1227
1232
1426
1500
1692
1911
2133
2345
2527
1.52
1.72
2.03
Services Sector
4806
5274
6176
6857
7844
8925
10003
11050
12001
2.54
2.42
2.15
241
245
269
272
289
311
332
350
367
1.08
0.72
1.21
10057
10634
12208
13230
14748
16452
18202
19955
21622
1.96
1.91
1.93
470
476
481
489
493
495
496
496
495
0.21
0.26
0.02
GDP of EU-27 (in 000 M '05)
Value Added at Factor Prices (in 000 M '05)

Energy Intensive Industry
Agriculture Sector
Consumer Expenditure (/capita)
Population (million)
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
4785
5222
5820
6245
6784
7350
7897
8413
8861
1.98
1.54
1.34
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
1879
1929
2175
2464
2770
3061
3321
3546
3717
1.47
2.45
1.48
12 GDP reaches 9.6% of EU-27 economic activity compared to 6.0% in 2005 and, consequently, overall economic
growth of EU-27 (+2.2% pa) follows closely that of the EU15.
The European economy progressively changes its structure
as sectors with higher value added develop more rapidly
than sectors that are energy and material intensive, reflecting the long established trend of structural changes in developed economies, away from the primary and secondary
sectors and towards services and high value-added products. However the pace of change is expected to decelerate in the long run.
FIGURE 15: INDEX OF CONVERGENCE OF GDP/CAPITA
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
%deviationlessthan
GiniCoef.
The indices shown in the graphic indicate gradual convergence of GDP/capita of the EU Member-States. The
Gini coefficient (blue line) is a measure of inequality of
income distribution; a low Gini coefficient indicates more
equal distribution. The percentage of Member-States
that deviate less than one standard deviation distance
from the EU-27 average (red line) is increasing substantially in the macroeconomic Baseline scenario, getting
close to 85% in 2030, up from 63% in 2000.
Update 2007
As far as the energy implications are concerned, the Baseline scenario does not involve any spectacular change of
the structure of the economy: the bulk of energy-intensive
industrial processing is assumed to remain in the European
Union. The share of energy intensive industry in GDP of
5% in 2005 is projected to decline and reach 4.7% in 2030.
The volume index of annual production of metals, building
materials and paper is projected to increase by around 50%
in 2030 compared to 2000. The metal and non metal industries of the EU are becoming more competitive relying on
innovation, high productivity and the quality of products.
This trend is accompanied with significant restructuring of
material processing which is projected to rely increasingly
on recycled material and the reduction of energy and material input per unit of output.
The share of industry in total value added slightly decreases from 19.6% in 2005 to 19.3% in 2030. Also, energy-intensive industry is projected to grow at rates slightly
below average. Agriculture is projected to grow at rates well
below average (+1.2% per year in the period 2005-2030).
The sustained growth of the EU industrial output, as projected for the Baseline scenario, rely on global demand for
manufactured goods which are projected to grow driven by
economic development in the emerging economies. This
view is supported by current trends which show that
China's demand for metal and non metal materials grow
fast, driving growth of industrial production of developed
economies.
Value added produced by the services sectors increase
over the projection period at rates above average, implying
a slow but steady increase in the share of services in total
economic activity (71.0% in 2030 up from 69.1% in 2005).
The increasing activity in the services sector is accompanied by significant improvement of working conditions in
services buildings which has considerable implications for
31
energy demand, concerning both the heating and cooling

needs of buildings and electricity used by appliances.
The macroeconomic scenario projects consumer
expenditure per capita to increase steadily by 2% per year.
This growth allows for increasing comfort conditions in
houses.
FIGURE 16: STRUCTURE OF GDP BY SECTOR
18.00
energysector
Valueaddedtrillion '05
16.00
14.00
construction
12.00
agriculture
market
services
nonmarket
The demographic and macroeconomic assumptions of the

PRIMES-based Baseline scenario have been used as inputs to the SCENES model ensuring consistency in the
projection of transportation activity figures. For this purpose, the SCENES-based projection takes into account
transport policy measures which are in place or are likely to
be implemented before 2010.
industry
FIGURE 18: TRANSPORT ACTIVITY GROWTH, 1990-2030
10.00
trade
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
240
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
0.00
ning 20 . The model is designed to produce European level

transportation activity forecasts by considering a wide
range of explanatory factors, such as demographic, economic, societal and transport infrastructure trends. The
model produces spatial details of transportation flows, as
well as assignment of flows to main transport modes.
Country and sector specific results are taken from SCENES
and transformed into inputs to PRIMES for further processing and calibration. The SCENES model produces projections of activity for all transport and travel categories, including very short distance trips and slow modes. 21
220
GDP I ndex
Transport activity
Index 1990 = 100
200
FIGURE 17: ACTIVITY OF ENERGY-INTENSIVE INDUSTRY
180
IndexofPhysicalOutput(2000=100)
160
GDPIndex
140
1990
2000
Passenger transport
100
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
176
189
165
177
154
163
142
147
2010
2020
2030
Freight transport
The Baseline scenario of transportation activity, which includes details about flows of transportation between and
within the EU Member-States, shows a gradual decoupling
of transportation activity from GDP growth. This trend,
which is more accentuated in the long term, is a combined
Transport Activity Outlook
The energy projections, which are measured in passengerkilometres and tons-kilometres, are based on projections of
future transportation activity by Member-State. Transportation activity is driven by economic growth, by societal
trends and by bilateral transportation flows among the
Member-States, which further depend on the completion of
the Internal Market.
The projections of transportation activities were handled by
the model SCENES which is specialised in transport plan-
32
131
131
80
120
4.3
122
116
100
109
103
160
100
100
120
Cement
Glass
Paper
NonFerrous
Iron&Steel
185
140
180
198
200
20
The SCENES model, developed by WSP Policy and Research

UK, is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and
freight transport model. It was developed through the European
Commission's Fourth Framework Research Programme and has
since been extensively used in research and policy studies of DG
TREN and other Commission services.
21
The definition of the transportation activity Baseline scenario is in
line with that of the Partial implementation scenario (P-scenario)
developed with the use of the SCENES model under the ASSESS
study of DG TREN (2005) for the mid-term review of the Transport
White Paper. More information on the ASSESS study can be found
at:
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/white_paper/mid_term_revision/asses
s_en.htm.
Update 2007
FIGURE 19: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY MODE, 1990-2030
FIGURE 20: FREIGHT TRANSPORT ACTIVITY, 1990-2030
10000
80%
Freighttransportactivity
inGpkm
Inland
navig.
Rail
3000
70%
4000
3000
70%
60%
2500
50%
2000
2030
result of productivity gains in transportation and certain

saturation effects.
The volume of transportation of passengers is projected to
increase at a rate of 1.4% per year, between 2005 and
2030, whereas the volume of freight transport is projected
to increase by 1.7% per year during the same period of
time. In comparison to past trends, the scenario includes a
slowdown in the rate of increase of activity, both for passenger and for freight transport.
As regards passenger transport the slowdown is related to
the stability of EU-27 population and to a longer-term trend
which involves lowering the long-term income-elasticity of
transportation reflecting saturation. More specifically, energy related transport activity per capita is projected to
reach 17908 km per annum in 2030 up from 12769 km per
annum in 2005. This considerable increase of transportation of passengers (42% higher in 25 years) is accompanied by changes in transport modes towards using faster
means, such as fast trains and aviation, a trend which
keeps the average time spent by person on transportation
in this scenario within a realistic range.
Transportation of goods is closely associated with economic activity and the completion of the Internal Market, as
increasing specialisation induces larger flows of goods.
Historically, transportation of goods has grown at least as
fast as GDP. However, the Baseline scenario conditions
with a changing structure of the EU economy towards services combined with productivity gains in transportation
bring about a gradual decoupling of freight transport from
GDP growth.
The projection shows freight activity per unit of GDP declining from 0.225 tonne-km per 05 of GDP in 2005 to 0.199
tonne-km per 05 of GDP.
Update 2007
20%
500
10%
0%
2020
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
30%
1000
0%
2010
40%
Road
2000
Buses
50%
1500
30%
10%
1000
60%
40%
20%
2000
80%
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
2030
Cars
and
Motor
cycles
5000
90%
2020
6000
100%
2010
Rail
7000
3500
90%
2000
Aviation
8000
4000
100%
1990
Passengertransportactivity
inGpkm
1990
9000
The structure of passenger transport activity by transport

mode 22 is shown in Figure 19. The projection shows domination of transportation by cars and motorcycles and also
shows a noticeable growth of air transport.
Aviation for passenger transport has been the fastest growing mode of transport in the recent past, driven by rising
real incomes, the increased willingness to pay for leisure,
the globalisation process and the liberalisation of air transport market. Aviation activity is projected to grow at a rate
of 3.1% per year in 2005-2030.
The need for more long distance travel facilitated by high
speed of air travel is expected to drive this rapid growth,
despite the increase in air transport prices due to high oil
prices. By 2030 the market share of aviation in passenger
transport activity is projected to reach 12.2% in 2030, up
from 8.1% in 2005.
Rail transport activity, which exhibited a decline between
1990 and 2005, is projected to display acceleration of
growth from 2015 onwards (+1.6% pa in 2005-2030) as a
result of new and upgraded infrastructure projects facilitating networks of high train speeds.
In 2030 passenger rail activity is projected to account for
7.5% of total activity (+0.4 percentage points up from its
level in 2005, +0.6 percentage points up from 2015 level).
On the contrary the shares of the other modes, such as
public road transport (+0.6% per year growth in 20052030), private cars and motorcycles (+1.3% pa) and inland
22
The PRIMES model follows energy statistics, which have for

transport related activities somewhat different definitions compared
with transport statistics, which have been developed for different
purposes. Therefore the breakdown by mode shown here is
somewhat different from the modal split depicted in transport statistics.
33
navigation 23 (+0.4% pa), are projected to slightly decline

over the projection period. By 2030 road transport activity is
projected to account for 79.7% of total activity down from
84.0% in 2005.
Road transport 24 (see Figure 20) is also dominating freight
transport activity and this is projected to continue in the
Baseline scenario. Transport of goods by trucks seems to
offer a significant degree of flexibility which compensates
for the higher cost of road transport as compared with rail.
The share of rail freight transport is projected to rise only in
the long term, as a result of improvement of infrastructure.
While the share of road transportation of passengers is
projected to decline, road freight transport activity (+1.8%
pa in 2005-2030) is projected to increase and attain a share
in total freight transport of 75.4% by 2030, 2.8 percentage
points up from 2005 levels.
This increase occurs to the detriment of both rail and inland
navigation activity, which are projected to grow by +1.4%
per year and +1.0% per year respectively in the period
2005-2030. By 2030 rail freight is projected to account for
15% of total activity (16% in 2005) and inland navigation for
9.6% of total activity (11.4% in 2005).
It should be noted, however, that as regards rail freight

transport the Baseline scenario projects a reversal of recent
trends, since the past trends show for the EU-27 that rail
freight activity declined at a rate of -1.9% per year in the
period 1990-2005 following among other things economic
restructuring in central and eastern European countries.
The recovery of rail freight transport is attributed to congestion on roads, the expected increase in road transportation
costs and the proliferation of driving restrictions on heavy
goods vehicles on designated roads. This change of modes
for freight transport is facilitated by development of adequate infrastructure allowing for inter-modal transport and
productivity gains. The projected growth of inland navigation is based on a continuation of past trends that this mode
mainly concerns the transportation of lower value, bulk
goods 25 .
4.4
Indigenous Fossil Fuel Production
The EU energy outlook based on the PRIMES model uses

data about the potential of further exploiting indigenous
fossil fuels, namely coal, lignite, gas and oil. Detailed data
and projections by Member-State have been collected from
various sources in order to support the projections of the
model for the Baseline scenario, regarding indigenous production of fossil fuels. The assumptions have been crosschecked with national projections and with the results of the
POLES model for the EU Member-States.
23
It should be noted that inland navigation for passenger transport

includes only waterborne transport on rivers, canals and lakes as
well as domestic sea shipping. However, international short sea
shipping is not included in the above category as, according to
EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers.
24
In addition to the comment made about passenger transport
numbers (see above), it should be noted that energy statistics on
primary energy consumption do not include bunkers. Hence short
sea shipping is not included in the breakdown above, which is
another element for deviations between the above graphs and
modal split numbers on freight transport from transport statistics.
34
25
Due to the lack of air freight transport statistics the sector is not
modelled in SCENES. However, it can be considered that, implicitly, the development of air freight transport is reflected in the corresponding development of air passenger transport
Update 2007
5
5.1
EU Energy Demand Outlook 26,27

Introduction
Final energy demand is driven by economic activity of nonenergy firms as well as the living and working conditions of
individuals. The corresponding end-use consumers, such
as industry, services, residential and transport, purchase
final energy products, such as fuels, electricity and distributed steam or heat, and transform them through appliances
and equipment into useful energy forms, that is the services
provided by energy at end-user level. The final consumers
combine energy and non energy inputs to achieve production or get utility. The mix depends on relative prices, the
technical possibilities and the consumers budget. Energy
savings correspond to various combinations of actions such
as: substituting non energy inputs for energy (e.g. insulation); optimizing the use of energy products in their transformation into energy services (e.g. choosing technological
advanced appliances); rationalizing the use of energy services per unit of activity or revenue (e.g. less driving private
cars or not letting appliances at stand-by mode).
The above mentioned mechanism is formulated by the
PRIMES model by sector as a multi-stage decision process
which covers decisions involving energy and non energy
goods and services and distinguishes between behavioural
changes, involving rational use of energy, and changes
related to end-use equipment.
auxiliary equipment. The corresponding consumption of

final energy products is accounted for as energy consumption of the energy branch and is reported separately from
final energy demand.
5.2
The PRIMES model represents the entire production from

CHP plants, including both on-site steam consumption and
distributed steam. For this reason, using statistical information provided by Eurostat on CHP, the non-marketed steam
generated in CHP units as well as the corresponding fuel
input have been estimated and included in the models database. The model formulates competitive behaviour between CHP and industrial boilers and also incorporates
interactions with the power generation and distribution sector.
The PRIMES model reports two views of final demand for
steam and for fuels used for on-site CHP:
x
Model-compatible view: Steam consumed (independently of CHP origin) is attributed to the demand side
and the fuel input to the supply side. This approach
ensures better understanding of the structure of fuel
mix in industry and refineries, but the figures for industrial consumption, refineries and total final demand differ from published Eurostat energy balances.
Eurostat-compatible view: Steam consumption includes only distributed CHP steam, whereas input fuels to on-site CHP are attributed to final demand. This
approach ensures full comparability of historical figures
with the projections.
Energy intensity is defined as the ratio of energy consumption of a consumer or a sector divided by a volume index of
the relevant driver, i.e. industrial output, transportation activity, income or GDP. Energy efficiency gain corresponds
to a reduction of the energy intensity indicator.
Some sectors use energy products as materials, without
applying any combustion process. This is the case of petrochemical industry using hydrocarbons as inputs to
chemical transformation and the construction industry using
oil in the form of asphalt. In the statistics these consumptions are reported separately as non energy uses of energy
commodities.
The energy producing industry also uses final energy products. For example a refinery uses electricity for lighting.
Electricity is also used in power generation plants to run
26
For the purposes of an in depth analysis of energy use and its

driving forces, an allocation of energy consumption to specific
energy uses, sub-sectors and processes has been undertaken on
the basis of various surveys and qualitative information. The corresponding data have been used to calibrate the PRIMES model
database for the years 2000 and 2005 so as to match more aggregate published statistics. Consequently, many of the detailed numbers presented in this section should be considered as indicative of
actual trends and structure rather than as precise statistical data.
27
The figures presented in this section are based on the PRIMES
model's database and the model-based projections.
Update 2007
Statistical Explanation about CHP
Eurostat energy balances do not take into account nonmarketed steam, i.e. steam generated in CHP plants and
used on-site by industrial consumers and by the energy
branch (mainly refineries). Steam/heat consumption in industry and refineries, as shown by Eurostat in the energy
balances, includes only steam/heat from CHP by a third
person (not the consumer) and distributed to the consumer.
The present report provides figures based on the Eurostatcompatible view of industrial CHP and therefore final energy demand figures are compatible with statistics. Fuels
input to CHP (on-site) are shown separately within the industrial sector. Note that there is no such an issue for CHP
heat consumed in the services, the agriculture and the
residential sectors because historically on-site CHP was
negligible.
5.3
Energy Demand in Industry
Industry has been greatly influenced by the increasing

globalisation and integration of the world economy after
1990 as well as the enlargement of the EU economy. Industrial firms address their product to a broader market
which is subject to more intense competition but at the
35
same time offers opportunity for increasing return to scale.

In this context the industrial firms restructure, seeking
higher productivity of production inputs and improvement in
product quality.
Energy is an input to industrial production and seeking productivity gains has always been among the basic goals of
industrial firms. The Baseline scenario involves significant
and steady growth of industrial activity in the EU which
brings about investment embedding technology progress.
Therefore, energy is progressively converted and used by
means of more advanced equipment which leads to a
steadily decreasing energy intensity of industrial activity.
The Baseline scenario takes the view that energy-intensive
industrial activity will remain in the EU, albeit growing at
rates below GDP growth. This is however accompanied by
important restructuring regarding the quality of the output
produced. The energy-intensive industries are mainly dependent on quality and cost of production inputs, such as
materials, intermediate industrial goods, services and energy. Dependency on the quality of these inputs increases
when these firms seek to improve competitiveness. In this
context, the EU energy-intensive industries are projected to
undergo significant changes in terms of the structure of
their processes which has implications on energy mix and
intensity.
The PRIMES model formulates a multi-stage decision procedure to simulate the changes in the structure of industry
and the formation of energy demand. The formulation includes an explicit production function per sector, a scheme
of present and future processing stages and the possibility
of using recycled materials. Therefore the economic optimisation by industrial sector takes into account the technical
possibilities for restructuring in terms of processing and
energy uses.
The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of the decrease in energy intensity of industrial value added, by
1.4% per year on average during 2005-2030. This is driven
by the use of more efficient technologies and by increased
electrification of processes. It is also explained by projected
changes in the composition of aggregate industrial value
added reflecting a shift in favour of less energy intensive
products. The projected changes in the fuel mix in industry
continue past trends. The shares of coal and oil decline,
albeit at a slower pace than in the past. Gas penetration
slows down as a result of high gas prices. The electrification trend, however, is projected to continue in the future.
During 2005-2030 the growth of electricity demand is almost twice as high as the growth of total energy consumption in industry. By 2030, electricity is projected to attain
34.3% of total energy consumption in industry.
FIGURE 21: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN INDUSTRY
Index
1990=100
100
Purchased
90
Steam
80
RES
Mtoe
450
400
Energy
Intensity
350
70
300
60
Electricity
250
50
200
40
150
Gas
30
100
20
Oil
50
10
Solids
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FIGURE 22: FUEL MIX IN INDUSTRY (SHARES)

40.0
36
Electricity
30.0
Gas
25.0
Oil
20.0
15.0
Solids
10.0
RES
5.0
Purchased
Steam
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0.0
1995
Energy consumption in industry, taken as a whole and excluding use of energy products as feedstock in petrochemicals, accounted for 27.8% of total final energy demand in
2005, down from 34.3% in 1990. Industry restructuring that
took place in the 90s, especially in Central and Eastern
European countries, has driven a considerable reduction of
energy intensity of industrial value added: 2.74 per year
during 1990-2000, followed by 1.13% per year during 20002005. The fuel mix has changed significantly in industry,
between 1990 and 2005. The share of solid fuels in industrial energy consumption declined from 21.5% in 1990 to
13.1% in 2005, while gas and electricity attained shares of
34.5% and 29.9% in 2005, up from 30.5% and 22.9% in
1990, respectively.
MarketShares(%)
35.0
1990
Both the PRIMES database and the scenario projections

are carried out by sector and sub-sector of industry.
Update 2007
5.3.1
Steam generation in industry
The energy balances and the projections as shown in this
report include the fuels used to generate steam from on site
CHP in final energy. Fuels input to boilers are also included
in final energy demand. Steam 28 is an important energy
form in industrial applications and its use is projected to
increase at 1.22% per year between 2005 and 2030. A
small part of this steam is purchased from third parties,
which generate steam from CHP plants. This part does not
exceed 15% throughout the projection period.
5.3.2
Iron and Steel Industry
The steel industry in the EU is increasingly confronted with
challenges posed in the global context. Changing market
conditions drive production of innovative high quality products in combination with a high service component. Concerns for the environment, but also cost reduction requirements, drive further optimisation in the processing of materials. Considerable achievements have been obtained regarding the quality of products and the economic and technological performance of the EU iron and steel industry.
The fuel mix of steam generation in industry, considering

on-site CHP and boilers, is increasingly based on natural
gas, despite its relatively high price, due to the high efficiency of gas-driven CHP and because of environmental
regulation. Gas is clearly the predominant fuel in on-site
CHP and industrial boilers. The scenario shows some reemergence of coal but its share remains low. Biomass and
waste are shown to penetrate this market at a fast pace
especially in the longer term.
FIGURE 24: IRON AND STEEL SECTOR PRODUCTION (M TONS)

300
0.45
Energy
Intensity(2d
0.40
250
axis)
0.35
200
0.30
0.25
ElectricArc
150
0.20
100
0.15
Integr.
0.10
50
Steel
0.05
0
0.00
The part of industrial steam produced by on-site CHP is

getting a larger share in the Baseline scenario compared to
the past. On-site CHP is almost exclusively based on gas
and biomass firing plants.
80
120
100
Mtoe
Mtoe
70
OutputSteam
bytype
RES
FIGURE 25: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN IRON AND STEEL

90
FIGURE 23: STEAM PRODUCTION IN INDUSTRY

Fuelsusedforonsite
SteamProduction
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
60
Electricity
50
Purchased
Steam
40
80
Gas
30
Liquids
20
Onsite
CHP
60
Solids
10
0
Gas
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
40
20
Boilers
Liquids
Solids
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2030
2000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
Steam generation from industrial boilers is projected to remain significant. Solid and liquid fuels used for steam generation in industry are projected to be mainly used in industrial boilers rather than in on-site CHP.
28
It should be noted that the steam numbers presented under the

title "steam generation in industry" are based on the "Model compatible view" including both on site generated and purchased heat
from CHP. In this special presentation of industrial steam/heat
issues, the numbers differ therefore from those shown in the annex, which is based on the "Eurostat compatible view".
Update 2007
Steel is produced either by integrated steelworks or electric

arc furnaces. The former produces steel of high quality
from iron ore and coal or coke. The latter uses scrap and
allows for greater operational flexibility. Driven by new
technological developments, electric arc has started to be
used also for flat steel production.
The period 1990-2000 was marked by a decline of total
production of the sector and the penetration of electric arc
processing. Output has recovered in the last few years and
the prospects of growth are positive, driven by exports to
emerging economies. The Baseline scenario projects
growth of iron and steel production by 1.18% per year in
2005-2030 and stable production of integrated steelworks.
Consequently, electric arc processing reaches a share of
56% in 2030, up from 42% in 2005 and 28% in 1990.
Energy consumption in iron and steel accounted for 5.2%
of total final energy consumption in 2005, down from 7.5%
37
in 1990. By contrast, in 2005 the iron and steel industry

produced only 0.5% of total value added. The Baseline
scenario, assuming that in the future the iron and steel activity will remain in the EU, shows that in the period 20052030 energy consumption in the sector will remain rather
stable. While energy consumption in the sector has decreased by 1.8% per year in the period 1990-2005, recent
statistics show that in the period 2000-2005 energy consumption stabilised.
Energy intensity of iron and steel has decreased by 1.7%
per year in the period 1990-2005 reflecting the higher use
of electric arc processing, which requires half the final energy per ton of output than it is needed in integrated steelworks. The Baseline scenario projects a slowdown of energy intensity gains, which on average amount to -1.4% per
year in 2005-2030. This is related to a deceleration of the
penetration of electric arc processing. The scenario includes, however, significant energy intensity improvement
of integrated steelworks which require in 2030 15% less
energy per unit of output than in 2005. A similar improvement is projected to take place also in electric arc processing.
Iron and steel consumes two third of solid fuels consumption in industry and this continues until 2030 in the Baseline
scenario. Electricity used in electric arc processing is important, since it accounts for 14% of total electricity consumption in industry. The sector also consumes gaseous fuels
which represents around one fourth of energy consumption
in iron and steel. Coke-oven and blast-furnace gases,
which are derived as by-products of solid fuel processing in
integrated steelworks, represent 45% of total gas consumption in the sector in 2005; this share is kept almost constant
over the projection period. The gaseous fuels are primarily
used directly in production processes and secondarily (10%
of total gas in the sector) for steam or CHP generation on
site.
Less than 15% of steam needs are purchased from third
parties. Iron and steel does not involve steam-intensive
processing and so steam production account for less than
5% of energy consumed in the sector.
The Baseline scenario projects a rather stable structure of
energy consumption in the iron and steel sector. Changes
are mainly driven by the increased share of electric arc
processing which entails higher use of electricity but also
significant reduction of energy consumption. Energy efficiency is progressing (by almost 30% over the projection
period), reflecting the fact that significant progress has already taken place in the recent past. As the sector's activity
is not growing very fast with limited expansion investment,
additional energy efficiency progress is mainly the result of
retrofitting of equipment. Advanced processing technologies make little inroads in the Baseline scenario.
38
The cost of energy in integrated steelworks represented

23% of total production cost in 2005, whereas in electric arc
processing energy costs accounted for 13.5% of total cost.
The Baseline scenario shows a moderate increase in energy cost shares, which reach 25.5% in integrated steelworks and 17.5% in electric arc processing by 2030.
5.3.3
Non Ferrous metals industry
The non ferrous sector is highly concentrated in the EU
because production of primary metals is exposed to fierce
global competition and depends heavily on metal ores
which are mostly imported into the EU. The sector produces only 0.2% of total value added but consumes around
1% of total final energy.
Production of primary aluminium, through electrolysis of
alumina, is by far the most energy intensive process in this
sector. Secondary aluminium uses thermal processing,
which is much less energy intensive, to recycle scrap aluminium. The production of other non ferrous metals, such
as zinc, copper, lead and others, uses specific processes,
both thermal and electrolytic. Recycling of waste material is
widely used allowing for higher overall energy efficiency.
The Baseline scenario assumes that primary aluminium
following past trends will grow slowly far below the average
growth of the sector which is dominated by the treatment of
recycled materials, e.g. secondary aluminium or zinc.
FIGURE 26: NON FERROUS METALS - PRODUCTION (M TONS)
Energy
Intensity(2d
axis)
20.0
15.0
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
10.0
otherNF
0.60
second.Al
5.0
0.40
0.20
primaryAl
0.0
0.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FIGURE 27: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NON FERROUS

16.0
14.0
Mtoe
12.0
Electricity
10.0
8.0
6.0
Purchased
Steam
4.0
Gas
2.0
Liquids
Solids
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Update 2007
The changes in the structure of activity explain the significant and steady rate of efficiency gains, which are projected to be above 1% per year, continuing past trends at a
slower pace.
From 1990 to 2005, energy consumption in the non ferrous
sector decreased although product output measured in tons
increased. This is mainly due to the growing use of recycled materials and the low growth of primary aluminium
production. The Baseline projects that around 60% of the
EU non ferrous metal output will come in 2030 from recycling, up from around 40% in 2000. Consequently, energy
consumption in the sector is projected to increase between
2005 and 2030 at a rate which is one third of the annual
growth of the sector's output.
Energy per unit of physical output of the sector is projected
to be 25% lower in 2030 than it was in 2005. Apart the
structural changes mentioned above, technology progress
in specific thermal processing is driving improvement of
energy efficiency.
Electricity in non ferrous industry accounts for 7.6% of total
electricity consumption in industry, in 2005. It is used almost entirely in specific electrical processes which represent more than 50% of total energy needs in the sector, the
rest corresponding to energy used in thermal processing.
Use of steam is small and thermal processing is projected
to rely increasingly more on natural gas, shifting away from
solid fuels and oil which have dominated the fuel mix in the
early '90s.
Consumption of gas is 44% higher in 2030 than in 2005,
while electricity consumption increases by only 8% during
the same period.
The cost structure of primary aluminium shows great dependence on electricity prices. The rest of non ferrous
metal production is more dependent on the cost of input
materials. On average, the Baseline projection shows energy costs reaching a share of 19.5% in total production
cost in 2030, up from 17% in 2000, but similar to the situation in 2005 (20%).
5.3.4
Chemical Industry
The chemical sector is characterised by great variety of
products and production processes. From an energy point
of view, the sector's variety ranges from highly energy intensive raw materials, such as basic petrochemicals up to
low energy intensive but high value added consumeroriented commodities (e.g. pharmaceutical, cosmetics).
The PRIMES model database aggregates the chemical
industry activities in four main categories, namely fertilisers/inorganic chemicals, petrochemicals, other chemical
products and pharmaceuticals/cosmetics. Production of
petrochemicals is energy intensive and also involves the
Update 2007
use of energy products as input materials, which is not included in final energy demand, according to Eurostat definitions.
The chemical industry is the largest energy intensive sector
in the EU, contributing 12% to total industrial value added.
The low energy intensive activities represent more than half
of sector's value added and account for only 10% of sectors' energy consumption.
FIGURE 28: SHARES BY SUB-SECTOR OF TOTAL ENERGY
PRODUCTS USED IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
3.4
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.6
5.8
5.0
7.1
5.3
24.7
23.9
24.2
24.2
23.9
pharmaceuticals/
cosmetics
otherchemicals
67.9
67.8
66.6
64.9
63.7
fertilisers/inorg.
chemicals
petrochemicals
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
During the period 1990-2000, the energy intensive activities

of chemical industry grew at a slow pace and underwent
significant restructuring seeking economies of scale, higher
productivity and compliance with a series of new environmental regulations. During the same period the energy intensive activities experienced a high degree of pressure
from global competition explaining the slowdown of their
growth. However, the latest statistics for the period after
2000 show recovery of growth in these sectors, enabled by
the growing global demand in which the EU chemical industry preserves a significant market share due to the high
quality of products. The projected rates of growth of energy
intensive chemicals attain significant levels in the order of
1.5% per year, which are however lower than the growth
rate of total value added. Conversely, the Baseline scenario
projections include high growth rates for the non energy
intensive products of the chemical industry.
By considering total use of energy products (both for energy and non energy purposes) by the chemicals industry,
petrochemicals account for almost 68% of the total and
fertilisers and inorganic chemicals for 24%, in 2005.
The projection shows that energy intensity of the sector,
including energy and non energy uses of energy products,
improves by 33.3% over the projection period. This is
mainly due to structural changes shifting sectoral production towards high value added and low energy intensive
products (60%) and partly (40%) to specific energy efficiency gains. The petrochemical industry optimises the use
of energy products used as materials following recent
39
trends, especially after 2000, and achieves 14% energy

efficiency gains over the projection period. The fertilisers
and inorganic chemicals are also projected to improve over
time in terms of energy intensity, which decreases by
0.91% per year.
The petrochemical industry uses mainly oil products, which
account for 80% of total consumption in non energy uses.
The rest of non energy uses is covered by natural gas. The
projection shows a continuation of this product mix. The
petrochemicals industry consumes about 10% of total sales
of oil products.
FIGURE 29: ENERGY PRODUCTS USED IN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
Index
1990=100
100
Electricity
90
Purchased
80
Steam
70
RES
60
Mtoe
180
Energy
Intensity
160
140
120
100
50
80
Gas
40
60
30
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
10
1995
20
20
1990
40
Liquids
Solids
NonEnergy
Use
The energy in the chemical industry is mainly used in thermal processes. Thermal use concerns mainly steam, which
account for 45% of total energy consumed for energy purposes in the sector. Specific thermal processes account for
25%, the rest being covered by electricity.
Demand for steam grows by 1.6% per year in 2005-2030
and represents between 45 and 50% of total energy uses.
Steam is an important carrier in the sector; it is consumed
by specific processes. Steam is generated within processes
and is used to drive main turbines. Thermal processing is
projected to decrease over time; its share in total energy
uses passes from 25% in 2005 to 14% in 2005, showing a
decline by 1.1% per year in 2005-2030. This reflects gradual replacement by electric processing. Natural gas accounts for 70% of inputs to thermal processes, the rest being oil products, which are projected to decrease over time.
Electricity in the chemicals sector is the most rapidly growing energy form: 1.78% per year in 2005-2030. This is
mainly due to the penetration of electric processes and the
emergence of specific electricity uses. Electricity consumption increases also through the wider use of electric compressors, pumps and motors. Technological progress in the
chemical industry concerns increasingly electrochemistry,
for example for specific reactions, separations and electro-
40
lytic processes. In addition, recent statistics show a declining trend in the production of fertilisers and other products
for which the direct use of fossil fuels in their processing is
indispensable. These trends drive electrification and lead
electricity to reach a share of 38.1% in total final energy
used in the chemical industry in 2030, up from 31% in
2005.
Steam supply to chemicals industry is split between industrial boilers, covering around 45% of total needs, on site
CHP (38%) and purchased steam from CHP generators.
On-site CHP generation uses mainly natural gas which
accounts for 72% of fuels inputs to on-site CHP. The rest is
covered by coal (16%) and biomass, which reaches 12% of
fuel inputs in 2030, up from 9% in 2005. The projection
shows that this fuel mix remains roughly stable over the
projection period. The boilers mainly use natural gas, but its
share in total inputs to boilers is projected to decrease over
time and reach 44% in 2030, down from around 60% in
2005. Heavy fuel oil and solids keep their shares and
slightly increase over time. These changes are driven by
relative fuel prices and also reflect the fact that natural gas
is technically and economically more beneficial when used
in CHP applications.
The importance of energy in the cost structure varies
across the sub-sectors of the chemicals industry. Energy
accounts for 2% to 3% in total cost of the low energy intensive sub-sectors, such as the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics; this range is 15-18% in energy intensive chemical subsectors and is 25-28% in fertilisers and inorganic chemicals. The cost of feedstock and energy used in petrochemicals represent between 50-60% of total cost.
5.3.5
Non Metallic Minerals Industry
The non-metallic minerals industry is composed of several
sub-sectors which produce mainly building materials, including cement, lime, glass, ceramics, bricks and gypsum.
This manufacturing sector accounts for a relatively small
share of total value added (1%) and of the value added
produced by industry (5%). However, it plays an important
role as a supplier to construction and other sectors. The
production in this sector is clearly energy intensive. Energy
consumed by this sector accounts for 3.7% of total final
energy consumption and 13.3% of energy consumption in
industry, in 2005.
Value added of non metallic minerals is projected to grow
by 1.73% per year in 2005-2030 which is higher than the
average growth rate experienced over the last ten years
(1.31% per year in 1995-2005) but in line with the projected
growth rate of construction activity.
The cement industry uses energy mainly in a high temperature thermal processing of raw materials, namely rotary
Update 2007
kilns, and also uses electricity for raw material preparation

(e.g. mills and fans).
The industry has boosted efficiency by concentrating in
plants of high capacity (a typical kiln has twice the capacity
that it had twenty years ago) and by massively adopting the
dry process of cement manufacture which replaced the wet
process kilns. Currently the large majority of cement production (close to 90% in the EU) is using the dry process
technology.
The best available technology based on dry kiln system
consumes 0.065 toe/t of cement. Currently the average
heat balance value of clinker in the EU is about 0.080 toe/t,
which is more than 30% lower than in 1990.
FIGURE 30: ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN NON METALLIC MINERALS
100
AllNon
Metallic
Min.
90
80
70
BasicGlass
60
50
Index
1990=100
Cement
40
Considerable efficiency gains took place in cement production over the last fifteen years: 2.1% per year. Given that
there exist today in the EU somewhat less than 15% of
cement production based on wet or semi-wet processes,
there is scope for further energy efficiency gains. The
Baseline scenario projects specific energy consumption of
cement manufacturing to decrease by 0.8% per year in
2005-2030 and to reach by 2030 a level that is close to
energy performance of the currently best available technology. This progress takes place at different pace in the
Member-States depending on the status of technology prevailing at present. Process control optimisation and other
techniques may also contribute to further improving energy
efficiency in cement manufacturing. The Baseline scenario
assumes that some progress takes place in that respect.
Traditionally, the fuel used in cement kilns was coal and
petroleum coke. As a result of the establishment of the EU
ETS, the industry is increasingly using waste material
(mainly treated municipal waste) so as to reduce CO2
emissions. By 2005, the share of biomass-waste fuels in
total inputs to kilns was roughly 7% and is projected to rise
to 13% in 2030. The use of waste is limited because of
concerns about environmental hazard and the requirements about efficiency of combustion at high temperature.
Update 2007
Fuels in solid forms cover the rest of energy requirements

by cement production, of which petroleum coke is the predominant fuel. Natural gas kilns are rare, because of fuel
cost. Substitutions between fossil fuels, especially among
the fuels in solid form, are driven by relative prices and
have often taken place in the past. The projection shows
that solid fuels maintain a rather constant share over the
projection period, contrary to the use of petroleum coke
which declines.
Total energy consumption of cement production (of which
71% is consumed by cement kilns) account for 48.5% of
total energy consumption in the non metallic minerals industry in 2005 and this share remains rather constant in the
Baseline scenario.
Energy costs account for about 40% of variable costs of
cement production. Electricity covers around 20% of cement energy needs and therefore is an important cost factor.
Production of lime is also energy intensive and uses kilns
for processing raw material and electricity in milling. The
various technologies differ in terms of specific energy consumption of lime production and there exist a significant
potential for energy efficiency gains. The Baseline scenario
shows significant improvement of specific energy consumption as a result of increasingly adopting best available technologies for lime kilns. Lime industries often use gas in
kilns in order to avoid sulphur and other impurities in products.
The glass industry in the EU has grown steadily over the
last ten years at rates between 1 and 2% per year. Higher
quality glasses and special glasses get growing shares in
the sector. Container glass is the main product representing 60% of total glass production in 2005, followed by flat
glass (28%).
The Baseline scenario assumes that production of glass
will increase at an average rate of 1.6% per year in 20052030, due to the increase in the consumer and construction
industry demand. Recycled gas has increasingly been used
within this sector, which is projected to further increase in
the future. This leads to diminishing needs for basic glass
production which is projected to increase only by 0.5% per
year in 2005-2030.
Basic glass production is a high temperature energy intensive process; melted gas is produced in furnaces usually
burning fossil fuels above raw material. Fining and conditioning of glass is basically thermal but at lower temperature. The glass industry in the EU carried out important
restructuring during the last fifteen years towards higher
scale of production and higher efficiency. Specific energy
consumption of glass melting has dropped by 60% during
41
that period. Further energy efficiency gains are possible in

the future but the potential is smaller.
The Baseline projection includes lower reduction of specific
energy consumption of glass melting in the period 20052030, leading to energy efficiency gains of 0.65% per year,
down from 2.1% per year during 1990-2005. However, energy efficiency gains at the level of the glass sector are
projected to be 1% per year in 2005-2030 as a result of the
increasing share of glass recycling, which is projected to
exceed 50% at the level of the whole glass sector by 2030.
The main energy sources for glass melting are natural gas,
fuel oil and electricity. Natural gas is increasingly used in
order to preserve purity of final products. Electricity is used
either as a single source of energy, in resisting heating
processes, or in combination with fossil fuels. The growing
production of glass of higher quality and special glasses
drives the application of new processes, which are generally more energy efficient. Examples include oxygen fuel
burning and electric melting. Energy efficiency is ensured
by using heat recovery techniques, process control and
recovery-recycling of waste glass. There techniques have
been already widely used.
The rest of activities included in the non metallic minerals
sector concerns manufacturing of bricks, tiles and other
building materials. There production is also based on thermal processing in furnaces and the use of electricity both in
processing and in specific electricity uses.
FIGURE 31: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NON METALLIC MINERALS
Index
1990=100
100
Mtoe
Energy
Intensity
60
90
50
80
Electricity
70
40
60
30
Biomass
Waste
The fuel mix in the non metallic minerals industry is projected as rather stable over time. Natural gas use is increasingly driven by demand for higher quality products.
Electricity is also getting a slightly higher share as a result
of the growing use of electro-thermal processing. The use
of waste as input fuel is projected to increase but its share
remains rather small.
Thermal processing is projected to remain the dominant
energy use accounting for about 80% of energy use in the
sector. Electricity uses increase in share reaching 17.8% in
2030, up from 16.5% in 2005.
5.3.6
Pulp and Paper Industry
Pulp and papermaking is an important sector in the EU
economy and consists of several process stages and different products. The Baseline scenario projects growth of
sector' production by 1.3% per year in 2005-2030.
Pulp production is the basic process and is concentrated in
the EU in areas linked with resources used as raw material.
The sector's value added is mainly generated by secondary
processing of paper materials, special papermaking activities and printing, rather than by pulp production. In terms of
production measured in tons, pulp production accounts for
around 30% of total quantity of paper produced in the EU,
but in terms of energy it accounts for 44% of total energy
consumed in the sector. The part of pulp production is projected to decline to 26% in 2030.
50
40
20
Gas
30
20
10
Liquids
10
0
Solids
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
The degree at which the Member-States' industrial plants in

the non metallic minerals sector are employing advanced
technologies vary. The Baseline projection assumes that
convergence of industrial performance will drive faster
adoption of best available technologies in Member-States
with older or less efficient plants.
42
As a result, the Baseline scenario shows gradual convergence of specific energy consumption of produced materials by this sector among the Member-States. In addition,
the Baseline scenario involves growing use of recycled
materials in the sector, allowing for a low increase in basic
material production, which is significantly more energy intensive. As a result of these changes, the Baseline scenario projects that energy efficiency improves by 1% per
year over the projection period.
Currently, pulp production is mainly based on kraft (sulphate) process which is highly energy intensive both in
steam and electricity. The major part of heat energy is consumed in chemical processes, heating fluids and in evaporation. Electricity is mainly used for preparation and handling of raw material and the operation of large-scale
pumps and motor-based machines. Drying and secondary
treatments consume lower enthalpy heat and electricity.
Production from recovered and recycled paper is less energy intensive (less than half of that of pulp production) and
is more dependent on low enthalpy heat and electricity.
Recycling of paper recovered has been growing steadily in
the EU and, in volume terms, covers 70% of total paper
production.
Update 2007
FIGURE 32: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN PULP AND PAPER

Mtoe
Purchased
Steam
Biomass
Waste
35
30
90
70
OutputSteam
bytype
Purchased
Steam
Mtoe
20
Biomass
Waste
Onsite
CHP
15
50
Electricity
20
Fuelsusedforonsite
SteamProduction
25
80
60
25
30
40
15
10
Gas
30
The Baseline scenario takes the view that paper recovery

has a small additional potential and projects recovery to
increase only up to 74% in 2030. The scenario projects
pulp production to increase in volume terms by roughly 1%
per year in 2005-2030.
As a heavy steam and electricity user, pulp production is an
ideal area to develop advanced CHP technologies and apply complex heat recovery techniques, as well as process
control optimisation. These are among the standard techniques already under development in the industry leading
to important energy efficiency improvements. Looking back
to 1990, the pulp industry has experienced considerable
change in the process technologies and in the deployment
of energy efficiency techniques: specific energy consumption of pulp was in 2005 30% lower than in 1990 which corresponds to energy efficiency gains of more than 2% per
year.
The Baseline scenario shows continuation of this trend at a
slower pace, showing further reduction of specific consumption of ten additional percent points, which corresponds to energy efficiency gains of 0.6% per year on average in the period 2005-2030. Further improvements are
possible but are related to the introduction of new process
technologies which are capital intensive and require shorter
capital rotation cycles than the industry experiences.
The rest of papermaking activities have also possibilities to
improve energy efficiency. The Baseline scenario shows
energy intensity gains of 0.8% per year between 2005 and
2030. Low enthalpy heat uses can be optimised seeking
lower specific energy consumption by employing primary
energy saving measures but most important through wider
use of advanced heat pumps. This justifies the trend shown
in the Baseline scenario towards diminishing shares of low
Update 2007
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Solids
0
2030
2000
10
Solids
Boilers
Liquids
2025
Liquids
2020
20
2015
Gas
2010
10
2005
40
Energy/ton
pulp
Index
1990=100
100
2000
45
FIGURE 33: STEAM PRODUCTION IN PULP AND PAPER
enthalpy heat and increasing electrification of papermaking

processing.
As mentioned above, the basic trend in the pulp and paper
industry as projected in the Baseline scenario is the increasing use of steam produced from on site CHP, which
increases by 1.7% per year and gradually replaces industrial boilers, the latter getting a share of 36% in steam generation by 2030, down from 51% in 2005. This trend allows
for lowering the cost of electricity supply produced partly on
site, facilitating therefore more intense use of electricity
also in heat uses. Purchased steam account for less than
5% in total steam use.
The production of steam by the industry benefits from access to biomass and waste which is also used as raw material in the industry. It is shown that biomass-waste covers
50% of input fuels to steam generation, the rest being covered by natural gas, which follows a slightly declining trend
getting a share of 32% in 2030 down from 38% in 2005.
This reflects relative input prices, which drive a small increase in the share of solid fuels (13% in 2030, up from 5%
in 2005).
Although energy related costs constitute an important component of the cost structure of pulp production, in the whole
papermaking and pulp activity energy represents around
15% of total value of production.
5.3.7
Other Industrial sectors
The rest of industrial sectors are not energy intensive and
energy has a part of less than 2% in their overall cost structure. These sectors produce more than 75% of industrial
value added and consume 35% of industrial energy consumption (not including feedstock to chemical industry).
Various sectors are included in this group producing a variety of products which are very important for the EU econ-
43
FIGURE 34: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN OTHER INDUSTRIES
60.0
80
50.0
60
40.0
30.0
Liquids
Solids
10.0
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
omy and its development. The engineering sector accounts

for almost 58% of the value added of non-energy intensive
industries. The sector has a growing importance in the EU
economy as it produces equipment goods of various kinds.
The Baseline scenario projects growth of this sector by
2.2% per year, in 2005-2030, a rate which is slightly above
GDP growth.
The food and beverages sector has a share of 16% in non
energy intensive industries and is also projected to grow at
a significant rate (2.3% per year). The textiles sector is projected to remain at a rather stable level of production after a
strong decline experienced in the past. The rest of the other
industries sector produces a variety of consumer and intermediate goods, such as manufacture of wood products,
rubber and plastic products, fabricated metal products, print
and publishing, etc. It has a weight of 20% in the other industries category and is projected to grow at a rate similar
to GDP.
The engineering sub-sector uses energy in thermal processes, as production of equipment goods involves treatment of metals in foundries and materials in furnaces. Electricity is an important energy carrier for this sub-sector ensuring the operation of complex specific electricity processes which take an increasing importance, as the sector
of equipment goods is basing technological progress on
electronics, electric motor drives and electric machines.
The food and beverages sub-sector, as well as part of the
rest of sub-sectors within other industries, uses steam and
heat energy as the main carrier and can benefit from wider
use of CHP applications. Lower enthalpy heat uses are
also important in these activities and the wider use of electric heat pumps is emerging. Electricity covers specific
uses, such as motors, pumps, electronics, cooling and
compression, and is gradually penetrating also in heating
44
Boilers
10
Liquids
Solids
2005
20.0
20
Gas
20
2030
2000
Gas
40
Onsite
CHP
30
2025
Electricity
40
2020
100
Purchased
Steam
Biomass
Waste
2030
70.0
Mtoe
2010
120
2025
80.0
2020
50
RES
2015
90.0
2015
Purchased
Steam
OutputSteam
bytype
Fuelsusedforonsite
SteamProduction
2010
Energy
Intensity
140
60
2005
160
Index
1990=100
100.0
2000
Mtoe
FIGURE 35: STEAM PRODUCTION IN OTHER INDUSTRIES
uses substituting for fossil fuels. However, the Baseline

scenario shows a rather slow process of electrification, because fuel prices relative to electricity prices are projected
to be rather stable.
Process optimisation, wider use of CHP and heat pumps
contribute to improving energy efficiency in this group of
non energy intensive industries. During the 90s the other
industries sector underwent considerable concentration and
modernisation of production. Investment in this sector
brought about considerable energy efficiency gains displaying a steady decrease of energy intensity by 2.2% per year
in the period 1990-2005. The Baseline scenario shows a
deceleration of this trend: energy intensity reduces by 1%
from 2005 to 2030.
The share of electricity in total energy consumption of the
sector remains at 37% in the projection, a few percent
points up from recent statistics. Natural gas plays an important role in the sector, preserving a share of 33% despite its
price increase. It is used half in thermal processes and half
in on site generation of steam. Liquid fuels are gradually
substituted by other fuels and electricity and reach a share
of 16% in 2030, down from 20% in 2000.
Steam uses keep a constant share of 34% and are increasingly generated by CHP, 57% in 2030 up from 48% in
2005, replacing industrial boilers. Steam purchased from
third CHP producers represents only 31% of CHP steam
used by the sector.
On-site CHP and industrial boilers rely mainly on natural
gas which covers 60% of steam generation. The scenario
shows a slowly declining trend of the use of gas in steam
generation and an increase in the use of biomass (16% in
2030) and solid fuels (12% in 2030).
Update 2007
Energy related changes are taking place at a slow pace in

this sector; similarly energy intensity progresses slowly.
This is largely due to the non energy intensive character of
the sector, for which energy costs represent only a small
fraction of total production costs. In that sense the sector
shows strong inertia and adjusts slowly to energy related
technological improvements.
5.4
The Services Sector
The services sector accounts for 12% of total final energy

demand and produces 70% of total value added in the EU
economy. During the last fifteen years services were the
fastest growing activity in the EU economy, growing at a
rate above GDP. Within the services sector market services
and trade have increased at a rate between 2.6 to 2.8% per
year over the period 1990-2005, far above the growth rate
of non-market services (1.7% per year).
Industrial specialisation of the EU towards knowledgebased and technology-based industries, which takes place
increasingly in the context of a broad EU and global market
have boosted the development of services, such as engineering, finance and trade. New services have emerged,
enabled by high income elasticity of consumers, such as
leisure services, information technology and telecommunications, driving further the development of the services
sector. These trends are likely to prevail also in the future
growth pattern of the EU economy and are assumed to
continue in the Baseline scenario.
Increasing activity and the growing value added per unit of
output in the services sector have driven increase in employment, both in terms of number of persons employed
and in terms of average level of education.
The working conditions, as for example the office space per
employee, the degree of comfort enjoyed in the office (including heating and cooling) and the access to electricitybased office facilities, have improved considerably over the
last fifteen years. The construction of new office buildings
offering high quality working conditions is among the fastest
growing sectors in the EU economy. This trend has consequences for energy consumption, both regarding the level
of energy needs per employee and the structure of energy
uses and the fuel mix.
Similar trends are experienced in other market services and
trade supporting services: their infrastructure became larger and more energy demanding, new energy uses have
emerged which were generally facilitated by proliferation of
electricity applications.
Although the part of fuel purchases is small in the cost

structure of the sector (about 1%), the services provided by
fuels and electricity are important for productivity and working conditions. There is increasing quality in the use of energy with progress being embedded in investment in new
office buildings and office infrastructure. As a consequence,
energy efficiency is continuously improving in the services
sector; nevertheless there is an increase in the volume of
energy consumed.
Detailed statistics about useful energy uses and the energy-related characteristics of services infrastructure are
not available. However, on the basis of aggregate statistics
it has been possible to estimate a few indicators about useful energy demand in the services sector, which illustrate
the trends presented above.
During the period 1990 to 2005, average growth of services
output was 2.4% per year. The number of employees increased by only 1.3% per year, as the sector experienced a
steady growth of labour productivity. Office space per employee was growing by 0.5% per year, more slowly than
output. Useful energy consumption per employee was
growing at 0.4% per year. The output elasticity of useful
energy was in the same period equal to 0.7 which clearly
shows that the role of energy services in the services sector is important, despite the low fraction in cost terms. As a
result, useful energy needs grew at a rate 1.7% per year
during the period 1990 to 2005.
The structure of final energy consumption by type of use,
as estimate for the calibration of the PRIMES model for the
period 2000 to 2005, shows dominance of space heating
(50.5%). Other heat uses (cooking and water heating) have
a significant share: 22.5%. Electricity used by electric appliances represented around 16.5% in total final energy
needs, lighting accounted for 4% and cooling accounted for
6.5%.
FIGURE 36: USEFUL ENERGY IN SERVICES SECTOR
350
GrowthRates20002030
Index
2000=100
Cooling:3.9%pa
300
250
Electricuses:3.2%pa
200
ValueAdded:2.2%pa
150
HeatUses:0.8%pa
Update 2007
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
100
The Baseline scenario takes the view that these trends

towards higher comfort and growing needs for energy services are not yet saturated and will continue in the future.
45
The structure of useful energy in the services sector as

projected for the Baseline scenario changes over time, following the trends mentioned above which imply growth of
electricity and cooling uses while traditional heat uses are
rather saturated. Specific electricity uses grow by 3.1% per
year up to 2030, cooling grows by 3.9%, and heat uses are
growing by 0.7% per year, between 2005 and 2030.
This structure of useful energy indicates that energy efficiency progress heavily depends on the characteristics of
the services buildings (i.e. thermal integrity of buildings)
and the possible active or passive systems that may optimise the use of energy for heating and cooling purposes.
The fast turnover of capital in offices buildings during the
period 1990 to 2005, marked by the massive construction
of modern structures, enabled significant progress of energy efficiency in the services sector. As a matter of fact,
the ratio of final energy per unit of useful energy, which is
an indicator of energy conversion efficiency, decreased
between 1990 and 2005 by 15% in total, which corresponds to a decrease rate of 1% per year. Energy per unit
of value added also decreased over time as a result of total
factor productivity improvement.
FIGURE 37: ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS (RELATED TO VALUE
ADDED)
110.0
Index
1990=100
100.0
UsefulEnergy
Intensity
90.0
Electricity
Intensity
80.0
LabourIntensity
70.0
SpaceIntensity
60.0
FinalEnergy
Intensity
50.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
The combined effect has resulted into a steady decrease of

energy intensity (final energy per unit of value added) by
1.47% per year in the period 1990 to 2005. Final energy
per employee and final energy per square meter of office
space were both decreasing in the period 1990 to 2005, at
0.44% and 0.90% per year, respectively, despite the increase in comfort and useful energy per worker or per
square meter.
This remarkable trend, which is confirmed by the statistics,
shows the importance of modernisation investment on energy efficiency progress that took place in the services sector of the EU.
The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of these
trends. The projection as based on the PRIMES model is
performed through a combined bottom up and top down
46
approach at a high level of detail. Indicators calculated as

ex-post results of the model confirm continuation of past
modernisation trends but also show some new structural
developments.
In the projection period to 2030, useful energy follows the
evolution of services output at an output elasticity of 0.8
given the importance of energy for quality and productivity
in the services sector. The ratio of final energy per unit of
useful energy is found to decrease at an average yearly
rate of 0.88%. The combined result of these two effects is a
decrease of energy intensity in the services sector by
1.32% per year over the period 2005 to 2030.
Final energy demand is projected to grow at an annual rate
of 0.9% in the period 2005-2030, which corresponds to the
growth rate observed in the period 1990-2005 (0.9% annually). Useful energy is projected to increase at a yearly rate
of 1.8%, up from the average 1.7% per year observed in
the last fifteen years.
Energy efficiency improvement in space heating is projected to continue in the Baseline scenario, at an annual
rate of 0.5%, which is slightly lower than observed during
1990-2005, reflecting a slowdown of capital turnover in
construction of new office buildings given their fast pace in
the past. Similarly other heat uses are projected to be more
efficient at an annual rate of 0.6%.
Energy efficiency of cooling displays considerable improvement in the Baseline scenario, amounting to 1.5%
gains per year, as a result of the wider use of advanced
heat pumps which can attain high values of their coefficient
of performance (COP), defined as the ratio of heat (or cooling) output per unit of electricity inputs. This is considered
as an important technological progress included in the
Baseline scenario.
Lighting has also a great potential of higher energy efficiency and effectively the Baseline scenario includes progress by 5.5% per year reflecting the fact that efficient lighting is very profitable in terms of pay-back period. Moreover,
technology is improving fast in that domain, especially as
regards the particular conditions for lighting in services
buildings.
Regarding energy efficiency of specific electric appliances,
the Baseline scenario takes a conservative view showing
an annual rate of energy efficiency gain of only 0.1%, which
includes the effect from more intense use of appliances.
Final energy demand of services is dominated by space
heating and other heat uses, which taken together account
for 73% of energy consumption in 2005. This share is projected to decrease to 62% in 2030.
Update 2007
FIGURE 38: FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN SERVICES BY TYPE OF

USE
2000
Lighting
Mtoe
Electric
Appl.
Cooling
Otherheat
Heating
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Cooling has a small share in final energy consumption,

which attains 9.3% in 2030, up from 6% in 2000. It should
be noted that the energy balance statistics do not account
for the waste (ambient) energy, which is used as input by
heat pumps.
Lighting represents a small share in total final energy consumption in the sector, which is projected to further decrease as a result of widespread penetration of efficient
lighting. Specific electricity appliances are projected to represent the fastest growing share of energy consumption
attaining 27% in 2030 up from 15.5% in 2000.
Electricity is a carrier of growing importance in the services
sector, enabling specific uses and cooling but also because
it substitutes for fossil fuels in heat uses. Electricity demand
has grown by 2.6% per year in the period 1990 to 2005,
which illustrates the changing structure and technology in
this sector.
The Baseline scenario shows that this trend is likely to continue in the future and later decelerate in the longer term,
as a consequence of saturation effects and also because of
energy efficiency gains. Nevertheless, electricity demand is
projected to remain at a significant growing pace: 1.5% per
year in 2005-2030, which represents an average growth
rate of 1.9% per year in 2005-2020 and of 0.8% per year in
2020-2030.
Electricity is projected to cover almost 50% of total energy
consumption of the services sector in 2030, up from 42% in
2005 and 31% in 1990.
The services sector experienced considerable restructuring
of the fuel mix during the '90s, by reducing drastically the
use of solid fuels and at a lesser degree the use of liquid
fuels. Solid fuels are projected to become an obsolete energy form in the services sector. Oil products also decline;
their remaining use is mostly due to natural gas network
infrastructure constraints.
Natural gas was the fastest growing fossil fuel during the
'90s. This restructuring reflected the need for cleaner heat-
Update 2007
Distributed heat from district heating or CHP supply around

7% of total energy needs of the sector and this share is
projected to remain rather constant in the Baseline scenario. The development of distributed heat depends on the
pre-existence of infrastructure in cities which has been developing unequally across the Member-States. New technologies for on-site CHP, such as micro-turbines and fuel
cells, are not shown to make significant inroads under the
assumptions of the Baseline scenario.
Renewable energies are emerging in the sector, displaying
an average growth rate of 4.4%. However, their volume
remains small attaining a share of just above 5% of energy
consumed for heating purposes in the sector. Half of the
RES is biomass and waste used in heating applications
and half is thermal solar used mainly for water heating.
FIGURE 39: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE SERVICES SECTOR
200
Sharesin%
Mtoe
180
Electricity
160
31
42
140
RES
120
100
Gas
Distr.Heat
60
40
Liquids
25
8
24
20
0
Solids
47
49
32
31
7
9
80
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
ing in the sector, partly driven by regulation. Natural gas is

projected to remain an important part of the fuel mix keeping a share above 30% throughout the projection period.
Solid fuels are projected to vanish from the fuel mix and oil
products account for less than 10% by 2030, down from
15.5% in 2005.
11
1
32
7
16
10
1990 2005 2020 2030
Geothermal heat as accounted for in the energy balances

includes only the use of geothermal heat in a direct way.
There exist specific areas in the EU which have exploitable
potential of using low or medium enthalpy geothermal heat
to feed into distributed heat applications. The Baseline scenario takes a conservative view about their development
and shows little progress in the context of the assumptions
of this scenario. There is great potential of using geothermal energy in a passive way via heat pump technology (for
both heating and cooling) combined with small-scale heat
storage in the ground. However, due to the lack of detailed
statistics on geothermal heat pump use, the contribution
from passive geothermal applications is currently measured
by the model as energy conservation and does not directly
47
appear in energy balances. This discussion about geothermal energy in building applications applies also to the
residential sector.
In summary, the Baseline scenario involves considerable
modernisation of the fuel mix and the infrastructure in services leading to a higher efficiency in using energy. Electricity and gas are the main carriers. They are likely to be
consumed with more advanced technologies in the future,
as the sector is seeking quality improvement and productivity gains, which enable improved working conditions with
more intense use of electrical equipments.
5.5
The agriculture sector
Agriculture has a relatively small weight in economic activity

(2.7% of value added in 2005). It has grown at nearly half
the rate of GDP growth. The Baseline scenario includes a
continuation of this trend, albeit with a small acceleration of
value added growth in agriculture.
Agriculture in the EU uses substantial amount of energy to
produce heat in greenhouses and other heat applications
(e.g. drying). This accounts for 73% of total energy consumption of agriculture. Energy is also used for pumping
and agricultural machines (23% of total). The rest of energy
consumption in agriculture corresponds to specific electrical
equipment and electric motor drives. Liquid fuels used in
vehicles by farmers are accounted for the transport sector,
according to Eurostat definitions.
FIGURE 40: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN AGRICULTURE
Index
1990=100
100
Mtoe
35
Energy
Intensity
30
90
25
80
Electricity
70
Distr.Heat
60
20
50
15
40
RES
Gas
30
10
20
5
10
Liquids
Solids
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
The fuel mix in heat production is dominated by liquid fuels

(more than 60%), whereas natural gas accounts for 20% of
the fuel inputs for heat. This reflects lack of gas distribution
infrastructure in rural areas. Use of biomass and recycling
of agricultural waste in heat production accounts for a
rather small but growing share, which was still less than 7%
in 2005.
48
The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of this structure of energy used in agriculture and of the fuel mix in heat
production. The scenario includes a slight increase in the
share of renewable energies, such as use of waste, geothermal energy and solar energy, reflecting new applications that start to emerge in the agriculture sector.
Energy intensity of agriculture has decreased substantially
between 1990 and 2005 (1.5% per year), as a result of a
restructuring of activities towards higher value added products and an increasing trend towards industrialisation of
production, which involves optimisation of inputs to production at a larger scale. The Baseline scenario takes the view
that further energy efficiency progress is possible in the
future but at lower rates than in the past. Energy intensity is
shown to decrease on average by 0.9% per year in the
period 2005 to 2030, and energy consumption in agriculture
is projected to grow by 0.3% per year, in contrast with the
decrease of 0.7% per year experienced in the period 19902005. The important role of the oil products in agriculture is
projected to remain unchanged in the future.
5.6
The Residential Sector
Energy is used in the residential sector for space conditioning (heating and cooling), cooking, water heating, lighting
and for electric appliances. The appliances are usually
classified in "white" appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers and freezers, and other appliances that serve for entertainment, telecommunications,
education, etc.
Economic theory suggests that household's purchasing
power (i.e. revenue) is the main driver of energy consumption as households seek to maximise utility but are constrained by available revenue. Energy consumption brings
utility by enabling important services, such as those mentioned above. The structure of utility, hence the willingness
to pay for services, changes over time reflecting change in
habits and lifestyles. New habits are emerging which need
energy consumption, for example mobile phones and battery driven devices which are charged at home.
Energy consumption in households is shaped by the characteristics of energy using equipment as well as the thermal integrity characteristics of houses. The dynamic
change of equipment and housing stock is driven by the
investment behaviour of households. Houses present a low
capital turnover rate, whereas other appliances are replaced more frequently, even before the end of their technical lifetime. Technological progress concerning energy efficiency is embedded in new vintages of equipment and
houses. Retrofitting of houses for energy purposes, often
as part of other modernisation work, also impacts on energy consumption.
Update 2007
The use of equipment for attaining a certain comfort level

depends on revenue, but also on energy prices. High prices
may induce for example lowering the temperature set for
the thermostat, switching off lights in empty rooms and
avoiding keeping appliances in stand-by mode.
Energy savings may lead to reduced energy bills, which
might entail higher energy consumption given additional
disposable income, just because households increase utility by using more energy services made possible by the
relaxed revenue constraint. This is called "rebound" effect.
The PRIMES model follows a complex formulation to capture the above mentioned effects. The model combines a
top down formulation of utility formation of households with
a detailed bottom up representation of how energy is used
and consumed through equipment, keeping track of technology vintages.
For this purpose, the model categorises the household
types in several classes which are defined so as to correspond to distinguishable patterns of energy behaviour. The
classes are defined according to the primary type of energy
carrier used for heating (e.g. direct gas heating, central
heating, district heating, and electricity heating). A class
corresponding to partial heating of the houses is also included.
The primary data are obtained from national statistical surveys and the model applies a calibration procedure to reproduce more aggregate energy consumption statistics as
published by Eurostat. However, the availability of detailed
and consistent data on the house classes and the services
from energy is rather limited and differ by Member-State.
The table and the graphic below show both that the number
of households and the space per dwelling increase significantly albeit at an average rate below that of disposable
income.
TABLE 10: DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING DATA
Annualrateofchange(%)
Income
Spaceperdwelling
Numberofhouseholds
Population
PersonsperHousehold
250
200
1990
2005
2.11
0.88
1.06
0.26
0.79
2005
2030
2.03
0.90
0.53
0.05
0.48
Index
1990=100
While population grows very slowly in the EU, the number

of households increases faster because the number of persons per household decreases steadily. The average floor
space per households also increases in the EU as a result
of improving living conditions and growing real income.
These are important developments for energy consumption
driving higher energy needs per household.
The residential sector consumed 26% of total final energy
consumption in the EU in 2005. This is slightly up from 25%
in 1990 and is projected to attain 24% by 2030. The Baseline scenario projects an increase in energy consumption in
the residential sector by 0.4% per year, down from a rate of
1.0% per year experienced in the period 1990-2005.
As a result of rising income, dwellings are becoming larger
with greater comfort levels for heating. Ownership of appliances increases and new energy uses such as cooling or
more advanced communication equipment emerge. It is
likely that these trends offset part of the considerable energy efficiency gains that have been observed concerning
both the thermal integrity of houses and the specific energy
consumption of appliances and equipment.
Statistical information shows that average energy consumption per dwelling remained stable or even slightly declined in the period 1990 to 2005. In 2005 final energy consumption per dwelling was 0.8% lower than it was in 1990.
During the same period, all indicators on comfort and ownership of appliances have increased considerably.
The index of useful energy per dwelling as estimated for
the purposes of the PRIMES model displays an average
increase of 1% in the period 1990-2005 despite considerable energy efficiency improvements.
The energy efficiency improvements were brought about by
more efficient new buildings and appliances. The thermal
integrity standards are regularly reinforced in all countries
and so new buildings are considerably more efficient than
older ones (e.g. through stricter insulation and glazing
standards for new constructions). However, the impact on
total consumption is gradual since capital turnover in the
housing sector is low.
The effects of this progress on energy consumption are
partly offset by the increase of the average floor space per
dwelling. In addition, the number of houses with partial
heating has dramatically decreased and is projected to decline further in the future.
Electricity consumption per dwelling has increased in the
period 1990-2005 at an average rate of 1.1% per year. During this time period, the ownership of appliances has grown
considerably.
150
100
50
0
1990
Update 2007
2000
2010
2020
2030
The ownership of refrigerators and TVs approaches 100%

and a significant percentage of households own multiple
49
appliances of the same kind. The ownership of washing

machines exceeds 80%. The penetration of small appliances is also important.
The new appliances are increasingly complying with high
energy efficiency standards: for example in 2004 the sales
of certain A class white appliances accounted for more than
70% of total sales.
In the modelling context, it has been estimated that useful
energy (utility) from the increasing use of electric appliances has increased twice as much as electricity consumption for appliances. The effects on electricity consumption
are partly offset by the increasing number of new varieties
of appliances used and by the larger size of the average
appliance.
As a result of the above mentioned effects, energy intensity
in the residential sector, measured as the ratio of final energy consumption over disposable income 29 , decreased by
1.1% per year in the period 1990-2005. Considerable decoupling of energy demand from growth of households'
income has already taken place in the EU.
The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of this decoupling and shows a decrease of energy intensity in the
residential sector by 1.6% per year between 2005 and
2030. Final energy per dwelling is projected to decrease by
0.1% per year and useful energy per dwelling is projected
to increase by 1% during the same period. The accelerated
energy intensity progress is brought about by the combined
effects of further technological progress in specific energy
consumption of appliances, the improvement of thermal
integrity of buildings as well as saturation effects in basic
energy needs such as heating, cooking and water heating.
Final energy consumed for space conditioning (heating and
cooling) accounts for 66% of total energy used in the sector. Saturation in space heating needs combined with better
insulated houses justify the projection of the Baseline scenario showing very slow increase of energy for heating in
the medium term followed by a decline in the longer term.
Cooling accounts for a small fraction (less than 1%) of energy needs of households but is projected to grow at a fast
pace and to attain a share of almost 2% in 2030. Useful
energy from cooling is projected to grow much faster than
electricity used for cooling. This is due to technological progress embedded in the new generation of air conditioning
equipment (heat pump technology) which are projected to
become 75% more efficient in 2030 than they are today. 30
29
Private consumption expenditure in real terms as published by

Eurostat in the National Accounts is used as a proxy of disposable
income
30
This is partly a statistical effect as ambient energy used as input
by air conditioning heat pumps is not measured in this modelling
context following the current Eurostat approach.
50
Energy consumed for other heat uses (water heating and

cooking) account for 22% of total energy consumption in
the sector. The projection for the Baseline scenario shows
an increase in energy consumed for water heating and
cooking at an average annual rate of 0.2% in the period
2005 to 2030.
FIGURE 41: ENERGY CONSUMPTION INDICATORS FOR THE
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
250.0
200.0
Index
1990=100
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Income2.1%pain19902005and2%pain2005
2030
UsefulEnergy2%pain19902005and1.6%pain
20052030
FinalEnergy1%pain19902005and0.4%pain
20052030
EnergyIntensity1.1%pain19902005and1.6%pa
in20052030
FIGURE 42: ENERGY CONSUMED BY USE IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

350
Mtoe
300
250
200
150
Electric
appliances
Cooling
Lighting
Cooking
100
50
Water
Heating
Heating
Electricity consumption in specific electric uses is projected

to increase almost as fast as disposable income. Income
elasticity of electricity consumption by appliances is higher
than one (calculated ex post on the models results) due to
fast growing ownership of appliances by households and
the emergence of new electric appliances and uses. This
represents an acceleration of past trends reflecting the
growing importance of electricity in providing utility in the
context of evolving lifestyles. Although the scenario assumes significant technology progress of appliances in
Update 2007
Electricity for lighting accounts for 5% in total energy consumption in households and is projected to increase at a
low rate until 2020 and to decline thereafter. The introduction of efficient lighting has been very slow in the residential
sector, contrary to the services sector. Efficient lighting is
economically beneficial, but households have acted as if
they perceived high costs and disutility for its use. Empirical
calculations show that current behaviour of households
regarding the adoption of efficient lighting is equivalent to
applying a very high subjective discount rate in the calculation of the pay-back period. The Baseline scenario takes
the view that this inertia will be gradually overcome through
the improvement of the lighting technology, the removal of
barriers and ongoing promotion policies. This leads to a
decline of electricity consumption for lighting in the longer
term in the Baseline projections. The overall energy efficiency gain in lighting is projected to be about 25% from
2005 to 2030.
Natural gas is the predominant energy source for households accounting for 40 % of total energy consumption, up
from 30% in 1990. Gas ranks first both in space heating
and in other heat uses, which includes water heating and
cooking, accounting for more than 40% of energy consumption in each of these energy uses. The projection
shows a further increase in the share of gas for heating
purposes, attaining 48% in 2030. Gas sales to households
are projected to increase by 0.5% per year in the period
2005 to 2030, down from 3.1% per year in the period 19902005, which was marked by widespread of gas distribution
infrastructure in all Member-States.
Electricity ranks second in the EU structure of residential
energy consumption and has a share of 23% in total energy
consumption in 2005. Driven by proliferation of new electricity uses in houses and the penetration of electricity for
heat and cooling energy applications, electricity demand by
households is projected to increase at a rate of 1.2% per
year in the period 2005-2030. This is a deceleration of past
trends given that in the period 1990 to 2005 electricity sales
to households have increased by 2.2% per year. The Baseline scenario shows that by 2030 electricity attains a share
of 27% in total household energy consumption.
Update 2007
FIGURE 43: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

400
Sharesin%
Mtoe
350
Electricity
19
23
26
27
11
11
40
41
15
13
300
8
RES
250
200
Gas
10
30
40
150
Distr.Heat
100
7
23
Liquids
50
18
13
Solids
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
terms of their specific electricity consumption, their number

per household, including ownership of multiple similar appliances per household, as well as their increasing size
lead to growth of electricity demand for appliances of 2.6%
per year in the period 2005 to 2030. Electricity for appliances attains a share of 11% in 2030, up from 6.5% in
2005. The overall energy efficiency gain of electric appliances, taken as a whole, is projected to be about 44% up
to 2030.
1990 2005 2020 2030
The use of coal and lignite in heat applications by households has declined considerably already in the beginning of
the 90s: its share was 3% in 2005 down from 13% in 1990.
There exist some specific cases of households in areas of
some Member-States having access to cheap solid fuels.
The Baseline scenario shows further decrease of use of
solid fuels by households.
Consumption of oil products by households have also declined in the 90s, starting from a share of 23% and attaining
a share of 18% in 2005. Liquid fuels have been replaced
mainly by gas. This trend is assumed to continue in the
Baseline scenario leading oil products to hold a rather small
share (13%) in total energy consumption. Sales of oil products to households are projected to decrease by 0.7% per
year, in the period 2005 to 2030.
Biomass had a stable market share of about 10% in the
past few years; it is important for households living in areas
with access to biomass (or waste recycled for energy purposes). The use of biomass is projected to increase by
0.5% per year in the period 2005 to 2030 and increase its
share in space heating attaining 15% in 2030, up from 14%
in 2005.
Distributed heat depends on infrastructure in cities which
has been developed largely in central and eastern European Member-States. The Baseline scenario projects a
stabilisation of the volume of distributed heat sold to
households.
Solar heating of water is projected to grow significantly accounting for 11% of water heating, up from 1% in 2005.
Passive solar applications are not dealt with explicitly in the
energy balances. Geothermal heat has a small contribution.
In total, renewables are shown to penetrate in the residential sector and increase by 0.9% per year in the period 2005
to 2030.
51
In summary, the residential sector undergoes considerable

progress in energy efficiency. Energy demand is mainly
driven by the increase in the number of households, the
growing degree of comfort and the important proliferation of
appliances and services enabled by electricity. Natural gas
and electricity dominate the fuel mix.
5.7
Transport Sector
The transport sector is one of the most important sectors

for the development of energy consumption and environmental emissions. The nearly complete dependence of the
sector on oil products generates two sorts of concerns:
security of oil supply with rising needs for transportation;
and worries about climate change combined with longer
standing problems of congestion, noise and urban pollution.
The analysis of transportation activity by transport mode
and the projections for the Baseline scenario were presented in section 4.3. The projected structure by transport
mode is characterised by the persisting dominance of road
transport, the rapid growth of aviation and the moderate
recovery of rail transport. In the period 1990 to 2005, the
GDP elasticity 31 of transportation activity was estimated at
0.90 for both passenger and freight transport. This is a remarkably high value indicating great dependence of economic and social activity on transportation.
plies decoupling of energy consumption in the transport

sector from GDP growth.
Energy consumption in the transport sector accounted for
31% of total final energy consumption in 2005, up from
26% in 1990. The increasing share of transport in total energy consumption is projected to persist in the Baseline
scenario.
The transport sector is the largest consumer of oil products
in the EU energy system, consuming almost 60% of total oil
product deliveries to final consumers, including feedstock to
petrochemicals. This share was 52.7% in 1990 and is projected to attain 64.4% in 2030. Dependence on transportation on oil is moderated by the penetration of biofuels in
road transport. The share of biofuels in liquid fuels consumed for road transportation accounted for only 0.2% in
2000 , but increased to 1.1% in 2005 and is projected to
attain 9.5% in 2030 (7.4% in 2020).
FIGURE 44: ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS FOR ROAD
TRANSPORTATION
105
Roadfreight
transport
(toe/tkm)
Index
1990=100
100
95
90
Road
passenger
transport
(toe/pkm)
Roadenergy
intensityover
GDP
85
A closer look at the period 2000 to 2005 shows that the

GDP elasticity of passenger transport remained constant at
a level just below one, but for freight transportation it became as high as 1.45. This reflects the considerable increase in commodity trading following the EU enlargement
and the market integration. The high value of GDP elasticity
reflects a transitory phenomenon and it is likely that in the
future freight transportation will grow at most as fast as
GDP.
The projections for the Baseline scenario correspond to
values of the GDP elasticity of transportation activity that
remain stable over time as far as passenger transport is
concerned and decreases over time for freight transport
reflecting saturation and productivity gains.
For passenger transport, the GDP elasticity is equal to 0.65
on average for the period 2005 to 2030. For freight transport, the GDP elasticity of activity is projected to decrease
gradually, first down to 0.92 in 2005-2010, and then further
down to 0.72 between 2010 and 2030.
As the values of GDP elasticity of transportation activity are
lower than one, the Baseline scenario displays a gradual
decoupling of transportation from GDP growth, which im-
31
The values of the GDP elasticity of transportation activity for the

projection horizon do not constitute ad hoc assumptions but are
calculated ex-post on the basis of the results of the PRIMES model.
52
80
75
70
65
Cars(litresper
100km)
60
FIGURE 45: ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER UNIT OF ACTIVITY

Changesin%peryear
1.24
0.11
0.41
0.99
0.59
0.81
1.22 1.22
1.07
9000 0005 0510 1020 2030
9000 0005 0510 1020 2030
1.51
Passengertransport
Freighttransport
Road transport is the dominant transport mode and consumed 82% of total energy in the transport sector in 2005,
down from 83.7% in 1990. Aviation displays the fastest
growth consuming 13.8% of total energy for transportation
in 2005, up from 10.4% in 1990. The Baseline scenario
Update 2007
projects aviation transport to account for 18.6% in total sectors energy consumption in 2030. The railway part in
transport energy consumption was 2.7% in 2005, down
from 3.4% in 1990. The projection shows a further decrease to 1.7% in 2030, which is linked to increasing electrification. Inland navigation accounted for 1.5% of total
energy consumption by the sector in 2005 and this part
remains rather stable in the future.
Private cars represent the dominant transport mean in road
transport, accounting for 55.9% of total energy consumed
in road transport in 2005. This share was 60.6% in 1990
and it was rather stable during the decade 1990-2000. In
the period 2000-2005 transport by trucks grew very fast, as
a result of the increasing freight transport in the enlarged
EU. Therefore, energy used by trucks accounted for 39.4%
of total energy consumed in road transport in 2005, up from
34.5% in 1990. Energy consumption by buses accounted
for 1.5% of total energy in road transport in 2005 and motorcycles accounted for 3.3%.
FIGURE 46: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN ROAD TRANSPORT BY
VEHICLE TYPE
400
350
Energy efficiency of cars improved at a slow pace during

the decade 1990 to 2000. The trends in the car market
were dominated by sales of larger, more powerful and more
comfortable cars (as for example with the widespread use
of air conditioning), which use more energy per unit of activity, offsetting the effects from improved engines in terms
of energy efficiency.
The period 2000 to 2005 showed a significant improvement
in terms of cars energy efficiency: specific energy consumption of cars measured in litres/100 km was 10.3 in
2005, down from 11 litres/100 km in 2000. During 19902000 the car specific consumption was rather stable. This
corresponds to energy efficiency gains of 1% per year in
the period 2000-2005, contrasting to a decrease by a mere
0.35% per year in the period 1990 to 2000.
Mtoe
Trucks
300
250
Cars
200
150
Motorcycles
100
Buses
50
0
FIGURE 47: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN ROAD TRANSPORTATION

400
350
small shares of total energy for road transportation in 2005,

namely 1.5% and 0.2%, respectively. The share of gasoline
in road transport has continuously decreased during the
period 1990 to 2005: 38.5% in 2005 down from 57.9% in
1990. This trend is due to relative prices and car's specific
energy consumption which have both favoured the penetration of diesel cars.
Mtoe
300
LPG
250
200
Biofuels
150
100
Diesel
50
Gasoline
0
The vehicles serving road transportation are based on internal combustion engines and are mainly using gasoline
and diesel oil. Other fuels, such as LPG and CNG have
Update 2007
The improvement is a combined effect of increasing fuel

prices, motivating prudent behaviour in car driving and use,
and the design of more energy efficient engines (also following voluntary agreements with ACEA, JAMA and KAMA
associations). The penetration of cars with higher energy
requirements, such as the SUV car types, did not offset the
downward trend of cars specific energy consumption.
The Baseline scenario shows significant progress towards
lowering the specific energy consumption of cars, although
it does not assume that the agreement on specific CO2
emissions for new cars from 2008 onwards, which is essentially an agreement on fuel efficiency, can still be honoured.
The projection shows further decrease of specific energy
consumption at a rate of 1.25% per year in the period 2005
to 2030, which implies that average consumption of cars
will be 7.5 litres/100 km by 2030.
Specific energy consumption has been negatively affected
by a decreasing trend of the average occupancy rate of
private cars. Average occupancy is projected to attain 2.17
passengers per car in 2030 down from 2.41 in 2005. The
projection includes a significant expansion of car sales in
the EU, which leads to ownership of 710 cars per 1000
persons in 2030, up from 460 in 2005 (54% increase) and
350 in 1990. The average cars mileage is shown to decrease steadily at an average rate of 0.1% per year, continuing past trends. The combined effects of the above
trends result in a decrease in the energy intensity of car
transportation. It is projected to be equal to 0.84% on average per year in the period 2005 to 2030.
53
The Baseline scenario takes the view that the important

increase in freight transport by trucks, experienced in the
recent past, will slow down in the future. Energy consumed
by trucks is projected to account for 45.5% of total energy
consumed in road transport by 2030. Consequently, the
part of private cars in energy consumption by road transport will be 50.4% in 2030. Energy efficiency progress of
truck engines is projected to evolve at a faster pace in the
future.
The Baseline scenario projects energy efficiency gains of
freight transportation by trucks at 0.4% per year in the period 2005 to 2030. The proliferation of truck-based freight
transportation, to the detriment of rail and inland navigation,
resulted in a deterioration of the average energy intensity
(toe per ton-km) of freight transportation especially in the
period 1990 to 2005. However, the Baseline scenario
shows positive energy efficiency gains throughout the projection period displaying an increasing trend in the longer
term. Energy consumption per unit of transportation activity
is projected to decline substantially for buses and motorcycles but their effect on total consumption is small due to the
relatively small share of these means in total road transportation.
TABLE 11: TRENDS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN ROAD
TRANSPORT
1990 2000 2005 2010
2000
2005
2010
2020
%changeperyear
Gasoline
0.3
2.8
0.4
0.2
Diesel
4.0
4.2
1.4
1.0
LPG
3.0
4.5
4.6
1.9
Biofuels
38.7
30.9
7.7
Gas
5.3
7.1
5.0
3.2
Electricity
12.8
TotalRoad
sharesin%
Gasoline
Diesel
LPG
Biofuels
Gas
Electricity
1.8
1.3
1.3
1.0
2020
2030
0.3
0.4
0.8
2.8
2.0
5.1
0.4
1990 2005 2010 2020 2030

57.7
38.4
35.2
31.4
29.3
41.1
58.8
58.9
58.9
58.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.1
0.0
1.1
3.9
7.4
9.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Energy consumption by road transport is projected to increase by 0.8% per year in the period 2005 to 2030, which
is substantially lower than the rate of 1.76% per year experienced in the period 1990 to 2000. A smaller rate of increase in energy consumption in road transport was observed already in the period 2000 to 2005 (1.3%). Energy
intensity of road transportation is projected to decrease by
0.8% per year for passenger transport and by 0.38% per
year for freight transport, in the period 2005 to 2030.
The penetration of diesel cars is projected to continue in
the future. Gasoline used for road transportation attains a
share of 29.3% of total energy used in road transport in
54
2030 and diesel oil raises its market share to 60.5% by the
same date. As mentioned above biofuels penetrate up to
9.4% of the market. Biodiesel accounts for 75% of total
energy from biofuels.
The market share of other fuels and energy carriers make
little inroads under the assumptions of the Baseline scenario. The hybrid and the plug-in hybrid cars are represented in the model as possible choices, but their penetration in the market is small (close to 3% of car fleet in 2030).
This share concerns mainly the hybrid cars, whereas the
share of plug-in hybrid cars is even smaller. The Baseline
scenario assumptions do not include policies that would
drive penetration of electric cars.
LPG's contribution remains stable over the projection period attaining 2% of the road transport market by 2030, because it is not favoured by relative fuel prices. CNG has a
small share and is limited to specific applications (for example urban buses).
As previously mentioned the Baseline scenario assumes a
recovery of transportation by rail manifested by a significant
increase in rail activity. This is considered to be a consequence of infrastructure development, low relative cost of
transportation and increasing congestion in road transport.
The statistics show that these trends take place already in
the period 2000 to 2005, showing a reversal of past trends
of declining rail activity.
However, the projection shows still declining market shares
for both passenger and freight transportation by rail, as the
activity of other modes, such as road and aviation, increase
faster than rail. The recovery in terms of growth of rail activity is more pronounced for passenger transport. The increasing trends are projected to accentuate in the longer
term. Regarding freight transportation by rail, the delay of
its recovery is due to the long lead times needed to develop
specific new infrastructure which is necessary to meet the
current requirements of freight transport.
Diesel oil has still an important market share in rail transport within the EU, accounting for one third of total energy
inputs to rail. The rest is covered by electricity. Electrification of rail transport is assumed to further proliferate in the
Baseline scenario, diesel train remaining the only mean of
rail transport in remote areas with less frequent travelling.
According to Eurostat energy balance definitions, final energy consumption per unit of transportation for electric
trains is much lower than it is for diesel trains, mainly because energy conversion efficiency of power generation
and losses of electricity distribution are not included in final
energy demand. In terms of primary energy, which takes
into account energy conversion and losses of electricity, the
electric train is 25% more energy efficient than the diesel
train per unit of transportation activity. The high speed elec-
Update 2007
tric trains are consuming more energy than conventional

trains but usually have higher occupancy rates.
FIGURE 48: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN RAIL TRANSPORT
Index
1990=100
Mtoe
Rail
Activity
12
100.0
80.0
6
60.0
Electricity
4
40.0
20.0
Diesel
0.0
year in the period 1990 to 2000; the rate of increase was

lower between 2000 and 2005: 1.86% per year. Transportation activity handled by aviation, measured in passengerkm grew faster during the same period.
140.0
120.0
10
Energy consumption by aviation has grown by 4.6% per
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Taking into account these considerations, the Baseline

scenario shows significant decline of diesel consumption in
rail transport and also a decrease of energy consumption
measured in terms of final energy.
The average energy intensity of flights, measured in toe per

passenger-km decreased considerably during 1990-2005.
Improved design of engines and aircrafts in terms of energy
efficiency led to a reduction of specific energy consumption
of aircrafts by 1.3% per year in 1990-2000 and 0.87% per
year in 2000-2005. The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of growth of aviation transportation activity at a
fast pace in the short and medium term and at a slower
pace in the long term. Aviation activity measured in passenger-km is projected to become 4.4 times higher in 2030
than it was in 1990. Energy consumption is projected to
increase significantly but less than the activity level, continuing past trends. This is driven by energy efficiency progress of engines and aircrafts which is projected to provide
during 2005-2030 energy intensity gains of 1.2% when
measured per year per flight and of 0.84% per year when
measured per passenger-km.
140
120
Energy consumption by aviation grows by 2.21% per year

in the period 2005 to 2030, down from 3.68% per year in
1990-2005. Nevertheless, total volume of energy consumed by aviation is projected to triple in 2030 compared to
1990.
100
FIGURE 50: ENERGY-RELATED INDICATORS FOR AVIATION
FIGURE 49: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN INLAND NAVIGATION

ActivityIndex
Mtoe
80
FuelConsumption
3
Indexofactivity
60
Activityand
EnergyIndex
(1990=100)
Intensity
Axis
160
500
140
450
40
20
400
120
As mentioned above, aviation is the fastest growing transport mode. According to the definitions of Eurostat, which is
also followed by the PRIMES model, energy consumption
by aviation corresponds to fuelling in EU airports independently of flight destination.
Update 2007
80
250
60
200
150
40
100
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
50
2000
20
1995
Inland navigation is traditionally important in the EU for

freight transportation and keeps a small share of the market, showing a slow but steady positive rate of growth of
activity (around 0.5% per year). The Baseline scenario projects a continuation of this trend and also growing energy
efficiency. Energy consumption for inland navigation is projected to increase at a slow pace in the medium term and to
stabilise in the long term.
300
1990
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
350
100
Energy
Consumption
Index
Aviation
activityIndex
Energy
Intensity(toe
per'000km)
Energy
Intensity(toe
per'000p
km)
The fuel mix for the transport sector (taken as a whole) is

projected to be dominated by oil products, which account
for 91% in 2030, down from 97% in 2005. The small loss in
market share is exclusively due to the penetration of biofuels. Electricity is used almost exclusively in rail transport
and does not penetrate in road transport in the context of
55
the Baseline scenario assumptions. New energy carriers

and technologies do not develop under these assumptions.
in transportation activity increases steadily attaining 32.9%

in 2030, significantly up from 26.1% in 1990.
Oil needs for transportation purposes are projected to be

20% higher in 2030 than they were in 2005. Transportation
activity is projected to increase by 45% during the same
period. This imply that the transport sector is projected to
display energy efficiency gains between 2005 and 2030,
which when measured as energy per unit of transportation
activity amount to 1.18% per year for passenger transport
and 0.87% per year for freight transport.
Energy demand in industry remains important; it is driven

by sustained industrial activity as assumed in the Baseline
scenario. Industry maintains a part close to 27.5% of total
final energy demand, lower than in 1990 but unchanged
compared to 2005. Energy intensity in industry improves at
slower pace than in the past which was characterised, especially in the 90s, by important restructuring and economies of scale.
FIGURE 51: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
300
Biofuels
Energy consumed in houses and services buildings accounts for about 40% of total final energy throughout the
projection period. The corresponding sectors, i.e. residential and services, display the fastest improving energy efficiency which is a result of combined effects from improved
thermal integrity, more efficient appliances and the use of
more advanced heat pumps.
250
LPG
TABLE 12: ANNUAL CHANGE OF ENERGY DEMAND AND INTENSITY
500
450
Mtoe
Electricity
400
Nat.Gas
350
200
Kerosene
150
Diesel
100
50
Gasoline
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Figure 51 shows the growing part of middle distillates, such

as diesel oil and kerosene, in the demand for oil products.
In addition, the Baseline scenario shows a significant decrease in the demand for fuel oil and heavy distillates, both
in final demand sectors and in power generation. These
changes will affect the structure of refineries in the future
and are taken into account for the projection of oil product
prices in the Baseline scenario.
5.8
Overview of Final Energy Demand
The Baseline scenario shows an increase of final energy

demand by all sectors, driven by economic growth, and
despite higher energy prices compared to prices prevailing
before 2003. The average annual growth rate during 20052030 is 0.75%, up from 0.58% experienced in 1990-2005.
Demand is projected to increase faster in the period 2005
to 2020 (0.97% per year) than in the decade 2020-2030
(0.4%). Energy intensity measured relatively to GDP is projected to decrease steadily during 2005-2030 at an annual
rate of 1.38%, slightly slower than in the period 1990 to
2005.
The transport sector displays the fastest increase in final
energy consumption during 2005-2030 (0.99% per year)
and the slowest improvement of energy efficiency, compared to other sectors. The part of final energy consumed
56
19902005
20052020
20202030
20052030
Energy Demand
Residential
Services - Agriculture
Industry
Transport
Total
1.00
0.59
-0.83
1.74
0.58
0.60
1.13
0.84
1.29
0.97
0.22
0.35
0.50
0.54
0.42
0.45
0.82
0.70
0.99
0.75
Energy Intensity Indicator

Residential
Industry
Transport
Total Final
Shares in %
Residential
Industry
Transport
-1.09
-1.70
-2.20
-0.28
-1.42
1990
24.7
14.9
34.3
26.1
-1.61
-1.35
-1.48
-1.11
-1.43
2005
26.3
14.9
27.8
31.0
-1.46
-1.43
-1.16
-1.20
-1.32
2020
24.9
15.2
27.3
32.5
-1.55
-1.38
-1.35
-1.14
-1.38
2030
24.4
15.1
27.5
32.9
Avg. Annual Change in %
TABLE 13: FUEL MIX IN FINAL ENERGY DEMAND

Avg. Annual Change in %
19902005
20052020
20202030
20052030
Solids
Liquids
Gas
RES
Steam
Electricity
-5.78
0.72
1.55
2.71
-1.09
1.71
0.24
0.61
0.60
3.29
0.74
1.64
-0.77
0.18
0.38
1.46
0.47
0.75
-0.16
0.44
0.51
2.55
0.63
1.28
Total
0.58
0.97
0.42
0.75
Shares (%)
1990
2005
2020
2030
Solids
Liquids
Gas
RES
Steam
Electricity
12.2
41.3
21.3
3.4
4.6
17.2
4.6
42.2
24.6
4.7
3.5
20.4
4.1
40.0
23.3
6.6
3.4
22.5
3.7
39.1
23.2
7.3
3.4
23.2
Update 2007
In the Baseline scenario oil products lose 3.1 percent points

in terms of market share between 2005 and 2030. Oil continues to be predominant in transport as an energy carrier
and as feedstock in petrochemicals (the latter not being
included in final energy demand). Oil is gradually replaced
by gas and at a lesser degree by electricity in all thermal
uses. The use of solid fuels declines in all final energy demand sectors because of lack of cleanliness and easiness
of use, despite its competitive price. The rapid penetration
of natural gas experienced in the period up to 2005 is projected to slowdown as a result of loss in competitiveness
and also because of increased electrification in some enduser applications. Steam and heat generated by CHP and
sold through distribution networks account for a small part
of final energy consumption (around 3.5%) but industrial
steam generated by on-site CHP and boilers is more significant.
FIGURE 52: INCREMENTAL FINAL ENERGY NEEDS
Changesofannualconsumption
between2005and2030
inMtoe
1600
1200
Services
Agriculture
1000
Residential
800
Restof
Industry
400
200
Energy
Intensive
industry
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
FIGURE 54: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE

1600
Mtoe
1400
Electricity
1200
RES
1000
Gas
800
600
Steam
400
Liquids
200
0
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
Solids
FIGURE 55: ENERGY PRODUCTS IN NON-ENERGY USES

140
Mtoe
120
Gas
100
80
60
Liquids
40
20
0
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
Solids
1990
Growing electrification of end-user applications is an important trend which was observed in the past and is projected
to continue in the future. In addition, the Baseline scenario
involves some degree of fossil fuel substitutions by electrical energy mainly in thermal applications by means of heat
pumps. Electricity makes little inroads in the transport sector under the assumptions of the Baseline scenario. The
demand for electricity increases however at a smaller rate
than in the past, especially during the last decade of the
projection period. This is due to a slowdown in the total
2000
1990
Passive solar uses in buildings, passive geothermal energy

(e.g. for storage and use of low enthalpy heat) and ambient
energy used by heat pumps (used for heating or cooling
provided that they have a high COP) are not accounted for
in the energy balances and are taken into account only in
an implicit way as part of energy conservation.
1995
Renewable energies present the highest rates of increase

in terms of final energy consumption. The additional annual
needs of renewables in 2030 as compared to 2005 are 48
Mtoe, as high as for gas and for oil products. By far the
largest part of this growth is attributed to biomass and
waste which are increasingly used in thermal applications
and on-site CHP and boilers. Solar energy used for water
heating also increases significantly but its share remains
low.
Update 2007
Transport
Mtoe
1400
1990
RES
Gas
Liquids
FIGURE 53: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
2
Solids
89
Electricity
39
Non energy uses are projected to increase by 0.6% per

year in the period 2005 to 2030, down from 1% in 19902005. The bulk of fuels used are oil products. The part of
natural gas is increasing, driven by its use in petrochemicals.
600
48
Steam
57
energy demand and the growing energy efficiency of electrical equipment and of lighting technology. Nevertheless,
the annual demand for electricity in 2030 is 37.5% larger
compared to 2005.
57
Demand for Electricity
During 1990-2005 EU electricity consumption increased by

1.71% per year merely due to the growing demand for electricity in the services and residential sectors, 2.97% and
2.13% per year, respectively. Electricity demand in the industrial sector was growing at a slower pace: 0.95% per
year on average during the same period. Within this sector,
demand for electricity in energy-intensive industry increased much less than average (0.5% per year), contrasting higher increase in non energy intensive industries
(1.61% per year). The transport sector represents a small
market for electricity where demand grew at 1% per year
during 1990-2005.
FIGURE 57: ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

4500
3500
2.3
1500
Residential,Services&Agriculture
2030
1020
0.8
Industry
Domestic electricity sales, including consumption by endusers and the energy branch 32 , are growing throughout the
projection period at 1.22% per year, faster than total energy
requirements growth. The well established long term trend
towards increased electrification continues, however the
rates of growth are lower than those observed during the
period 1990-2005. Electricity represents 23% of total final
energy demand in 2030, compared to 17% in 1990 and
20% in 2005.
The Baseline scenario shows a progressive slowdown in
the expansion of electricity consumption. In the short term
electricity consumption is projected to increase at a rate
similar to that observed in the recent past, considering that
the proliferation of new electricity uses continues as in the
recent past. However, for the longer term the Baseline scenario takes the view that energy efficiency improvements in
appliance design and the housing stock are exerting a
downward pressure on demand which is moderating the
The energy branch comprises energy transformation and production activities, such as mines, oil and gas extraction, pipelines,
refineries, district heating, power generation and distributed CHP.
These activities consume electricity as the end-users do. Selfconsumption of electricity by power plants and electricity losses in
pumping are shown separately.
58
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
1.5
1.1
0005
9000
0.9
1990
1.7
2030
1020
0510
0005
9000
1000
0.7
32
Residen
tial
2000
500
1.5
5
3
4
3
3
2
23
26
28
28
28
17
16
22
23
2500
%change
peryear
0510
2.4
Sharesin%
Trans
port
Tertiary
3000
FIGURE 56: ANNUAL GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY SALES

2.3
Energy
Branch
Mtoe
4000
2000
6.1
growth of electricity consumption in all sectors. Over the

past five year, the GDP elasticity of electricity consumption
was slightly above one, driven by its increased use in residential and services sectors. In the Baseline scenario, this
elasticity progressively decreases and equals 0.6 on average over the projection period.
26
Restof
Industry
17
Energy
Intensive
Industry
26
2030
Power and Steam Outlook for the EU
1995
1990 2005 2030
The structure of electricity sales by sector is rather stable

over the projection period, with the exception of the share
of industry which slightly decreases, and the share of the
services sector which increases. Such a trend was also
observed in the past. Electricity purchased by services sector and households represent about 55% of total sales,
whereas industry purchases account for 40% of sales.
Electricity consumption by the energy branch (excluding
self-consumption of electricity by power plants and electricity losses for pumping) accounts for 4% of total electricity
sales and this share is projected to decline because primary production and transformation of fossil fuels go down
in the Baseline scenario. The PRIMES model derives the
seasonal and daily variation of electricity load from the patterns of the different uses of electricity. The results for the
Baseline scenario show that load variability evolves in a
rather stable way. The average load factor 33 is projected to
remain relatively unchanged at around 68%.
Electricity consumption breakdown to high, medium and
low voltage grids remains essentially the same through
time with a small increase in the share of low voltage electricity demand, which accounts for slightly more than half of
the total electricity demand.
6.2
System Losses and EU Imports
Grid losses account for about 6.4% of total power supply.

Although transmission and distribution loss rates are projected to decrease due to better network technology and
33
The load factor is the ratio of total electricity consumption divided

by the amount of electricity that would have resulted if peak load
lasted over all hours of a year.
Update 2007
management, the increase in low voltage demand, as well

as the important penetration of dispersed intermittent renewables results in an increase of the transmission losses
in absolute terms and offset the effect of technology progress. The grid loss rate is estimated for 2030 at a level
slightly higher (6.8%) than that observed in 2005.
Self consumption of electricity by power plants depends on
plants technology and is higher for solid fuel fired plants
than for gas fired plants. Nuclear fuel and waste treatment
also consumes significant amounts of electricity. Electricity
is also used for hydro pumping, which is used for load balancing purposes. Electricity used for self-consumption
amounts to 5.5% of total power generation and electricity
losses in pumping are generally small in the EU. The projection shows a downward trend of self consumption in the
medium term, driven by the wider use of gas plants. Selfconsumption increases in the longer term as coal plants
resurge.
Taking into account all kinds of losses and self consumption of electricity, power generation (gross) was 14.2%
higher than power sales to end-users in 2005. The projection assumes that technology progress enables a decrease
of this ratio by 0.3% per year, which is similar to the rate of
decrease observed in the past.
EU net imports of electricity cover a small fraction of electricity demand, less than 0.5% during the past ten years.
Net exporters to the EU are the CIS, Norway and at a
lesser degree Switzerland. The projection shows net imports by the EU to remain below 0.5% of total electricity
consumption.
6.3
Power Generation Capacity Requirements

34
In 2005, total net power generation capacity in the EU

was 740 GW, consisting of 61.3% thermal, 18.2% nuclear,
14.8% hydro, 5.5% wind and 0.2% geothermal and solar
power generation capacity. Gross power capacity was 780
GW in 2005.
The nominal reserve margin is defined as the ratio of total
net power capacity, excluding 90-95% of power capacity of
intermittent resources (such as wind power), divided by
peak load, which in 2005 was 550 GW. The reserve margin
was equal to 27% in 2005. The same calculation by Member-State shows important differences, some MemberStates currently face a tight situation in terms of reserve
capacity, while others have overcapacity supporting their
exports. Considering the EU as a whole and ignoring possible limitations due to interconnections, the available capacity in the EU was largely sufficient to cover peak load in
2005.
FIGURE 58: POWER SYSTEM INDICATORS

40
35
30
% 25
Reserve
20
Margin
15
%Self
10
consumptionand
5
GridLosses
0
Under least cost conditions, power capacity expansion is

optimized. Thus, in the long term the reserve margin
gradually reduces, approaching the value of 15% which
was set as a lower bound reflecting reliability constraints.
Total net power capacity is projected to increase by 31%
between 2005 and 2030 in order to meet power load. Investment in new power plants is larger because, apart from
meeting increasing demand, the system has to replace the
power plants that are decommissioned. About 20% of this
investment (130 GW net) is imposed to the model as exogenous assumption, based on information about power
plants that are currently under construction or are confirmed projects. Most of these plants are expected to be
commissioned before 2010 and some until 2015.
The structure of power generation capacity underwent significant changes in the period 1990 to 2005.
The combined cycle power technology reached 91 GW net,
which corresponds to a share of 12.3% in total capacity of
2005, up from virtually zero in 1990. Wind 35 power soared
in the same period and reached a capacity of 41 MW in
2005 (5.5% of total). Power capacity based on steam turbine generation, burning fossil fuels remained stable between 1990 and 2005. However, its share dropped from
58% in 1990 to 43.5% in 2005. Nuclear power capacity
additions amounted to roughly 10 GW-net in the period
1990-2005, and its share was equal to 18.2% in 2005,
down from 21% in 1990. Hydropower capacity additions
were 13 GW during the same period; its share in 2005 was
14.8% in 2005, down from 16.5% in 1990. The penetration
of biomass-waste plants is noticeable, attaining a share of
2.7% in total capacity of 2005. The installation of solar
photovoltaic panels has increased considerably during this
period, but their share in the total capacity remained very
low in 2005.
35
34
Net power capacity corresponds to power delivered to systems

buses, i.e. not including self-consumption of electricity. Gross
power capacity includes self-consumption.
Update 2007
It should be noted that intermittent renewables, such as wind

and solar, are treated as equals to the thermal plants in terms of
installed capacity but deliver electricity at capacity factors that are
far lower than those of thermal plants.
59
FIGURE 59: DISTRIBUTION OF THERMAL AND NUCLEAR PLANTS BY

COMMISSIONING AND DECOMMISSIONING DATE
(INFORMATION FROM PRIMES DATABASE)
234
250
201
GW
133
150
100
Data analysis of old plant inventory shows the following:
60
60s
70s
80s
90s
Commissioning
00s
10s
Decommissioning
FIGURE 60: DISTRIBUTION OF DECOMMISSIONING AND RETROFITTING

BY COMMISSIONING DATE
71
GW
53
43
28
24
11
3
< 50s
1950
60s
70s
80s
21
10
90s
60s
RetiredPlants
70s
80s
90s
RetrofittedPlants
FIGURE 61: DISTRIBUTION OF PLANTS CURRENTLY IN OPERATION BY

COMMISSIONING DATE
GW
154
151
170
74
71
40
32
13
<1960 60s
70s
80s
90s 0005
0510 1015
Operatingplants
under
construction
FIGURE 62: DISTRIBUTION OF GAS AND COAL PLANTS

57
GW
45
36 38
33
24
23
Gas
27
19 17
13
22
0005
9500
9095
8590
8085
7075
6570
6065
6065
0005
13
8
9500
2
<1960
<1960
17
7580
x Roughly 50% of plants (in MW) that are currently under

construction are gas firing, 40% use coal or lignite and
the larger part of the rest use biomass or waste.
x Regarding distribution by plant size, 28% of total currently operating capacity corresponds to units with capacity less than 200 MW and 55% are units larger than
350 MW. Only 12% of total operating capacity corresponds to units with capacity less than 50 MW, whereas
the units larger than 600 MW account for 34% of total
capacity.
50s
9095
x The majority (65%) of gas plants operating today have

been commissioned after 1990. Commissioning of new
gas plants during the last ten years (mostly gas combined cycle plants) increased in a spectacular way.
<1950
8085
x The majority (80%) of coal (and lignite) plants operating

today have been commissioned before 1990. After 2000
there has been a significant deceleration in the commissioning of new coal plants.
7580
x From the end of the 90s the power sector displays a

deceleration of investment in new power plants. Despite
growth of demand for electricity, new commissioning in
the decade 2000-2010 (only taking into account confirmed projects by the end of 2006) represents 60% of
average commissioning by decade as experienced between 1970 and 2000. The lack of investment in new
plants is covered mainly by extensive retrofitting of old
plants.
32
8
7075
x Between 1970 and 2000, i.e. in 30 years, a total of 629

GW thermal and nuclear power plants have been commissioned, of which 139 GW were nuclear. The decade
with the highest power plant commissioning was 19801990 when half of the existing nuclear plants were
commissioned. The system nominal reserve margin has
attained 38% in 1992.
123
55
50
6570
x The average age of thermal and nuclear plants operating in 2006 was roughly 23 years. About 15% of currently operating plants are more than 35 years old.
About one third of power plants, commissioned between
1980 and 1990 and in operation today, has been retrofitted, in order to change fuel and improve efficiency.
194
200
8590
The database of the PRIMES model includes an inventory

of about 20,000 thermal and nuclear power plants (data
provided by ESAP SA, Belgium) that have been commissioned in the EU or are under construction. The model
takes into account the vintages of power plants, hence the
fleet of old plants influences power investment evolution.
Coal
Update 2007
FIGURE 63: POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (NET) BY TYPE OF

MAIN FUEL USED
1000
900
Geothermal,
tidal
Solar
GW
800
Wind
700
600
Hydro
500
Biomassand
Waste
Oil
400
300
Gas
200
Solids
100
Nuclear
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FIGURE 64: THERMAL POWER CAPACITY (NET) BY TYPE OF

TECHNOLOGY
1000
900
Total
Power
Capacity
GW
800
Biomassand
Waste
700
600
500
Other
thermal
400
Gasturbine
300
Combined
cycle
200
100
Steam
turbine
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1992
The Baseline scenario shows that these changes of the

structure of power generation capacity will also have important consequences in the future. The share of nuclear will
continue to drop along the projection period, reaching
10.6% in 2030 (nearly half of the share in 2000), owing to
the incomplete replacement of units to be decommissioned
and the phase out policies followed by certain MemberStates. The combined cycle power technology is shown to
continue its penetration attaining a share of 23.5% in 2030.
Consequently steam turbines using fossil fuels display a
decreasing share attaining 30% of total capacity in 2030.
However, the market conditions and the supercritical technology will enable re-emergence of coal-based generation
in the long term. Wind power is projected to grow throughout the projection period attaining in 2030 a capacity 3.6
times bigger than in 2005, which corresponds to 15% of
total capacity. Solar power accounts for almost 2% of total
capacity in 2030 and biomass-waste plants reach a share
Update 2007
higher than 5% in 2030. Owing to the high exploitation of

suitable sites in the EU, the hydropower capacity expands
much less than the total capacity. Open-cycle turbines,
internal combustion engines and other small devices used
to meet peak load, as well as those used in industry, have
a share between 2.5 and 3.5% of total capacity throughout
the projection period.
The share of solid fuel fired plants in the total capacity
drops from 26% in 2005 to 19% in 2030. This is mainly a
consequence of the moderate carbon prices assumed in
the Baseline scenario and the already decided investments
in gas fired power plants, which are expected to be commissioned in the short-medium term. However, the share of
coal stabilizes in the long term as investment in new clean
solid fossil fuel technologies 36 takes up; by 2030 61% of
the power generation capacity from solid fuel is projected to
consist of such technologies.
Despite the relatively high natural gas prices, the share of
gas plants in total capacity is steadily increasing, accounting for almost one third of the power generation capacity in
2030. This development is mainly driven by the deregulation of the electricity markets and the evolution of EU-ETS
in the long term. However, the increase decelerates in the
long term and investment mainly concerns small units and
CHP plants using gas.
Generation capacity by oil fired plants declines, attaining a
very small share in total capacity: 3% in 2030, down from
9% in 2005. The role of oil fired plants role is limited to certain specific applications, like isolated islands, areas without gas infrastructure and peak industrial uses.
The generation capacity of renewable energy (including
biomass and waste plants) accounts for 34.2% of total
power capacity in 2030, up from 22.6% in 2005. The capacity of intermittent renewable sources accounts for 17% of
the total in 2030, considerably up from 2% in 2000. Their
high penetration is mainly driven by the development of
wind and biomass power plants. Wind power is projected to
attain a capacity of 146 GW by 2030, of which 129 GW
onshore and 17 GW offshore. Apart from being used in
biomass-specific plants (51 GW in 2030) biomass and
waste energy is also used through co-firing in thermal
plants.
6.4
Power Generation Investment
The Baseline scenario assumes that power generation investment takes place in the context of a well functioning
market so as to deliver sufficient new capacity to replace
plants which are closing and to meet additional demand
with a sufficient reserve margin. It is also assumed that
36
Clean technologies include supercritical units, fluidised bed

combustion technology and integrated gasification plants.
61
investment decisions are taken in the context of full information and perfect foresight.
The PRIMES model considers different types of power
plant investment decisions distinguishing between investments in existing sites and in new sites, and also considering retrofitting of old plants as well as premature replacement of old plants as possible investment options.
FIGURE 65: INVESTMENT IN POWER GENERATION (NET)
350
300
Other
Renewables
GW
71.7
250
200
67.1
Oil
64.3
69.3
150
Biomassand
Waste
110.6
50
75.8
Solids
48.4
Nuclear
72.7
20.9
20002010
20102020
20202030
FIGURE 66: INVESTMENT IN RES FOR POWER GENERATION (NET)

100
90
Biomassand
Waste
GW
19.0
80
70
60
12.0
3.6
3.7
16.2
5.2
5.0
6.5
8.9
Geothermal,
tidal
Solar
50
40
30
Windoffshore
55.5
50.5
53.4
Windonshore
20
10
Hydro
0
20002010
20102020
20202030
Investment in power generation capacity attains considerable levels in the Baseline scenario: 666.4 GW (net) of new
power plants will be commissioned between 2006 and
2030, of which around 130 GW (net) are under construction. The total investment includes retrofitting of old plants
(45.3 GW) with extension of their lifetime between 5 and 15
years (depending on technology). It also includes 25.7 GW
(net) of new plants built to replace old thermal plants that
the model finds economic to be decommissioned prematurely.
Between 2006 and 2030 almost half of the installed capacity in 2005 is expected to be decommissioned (393.7 GW),
according to information by plant as included in the
PRIMES plant inventory. In addition, part of the capacity
built after 2006 is decommissioned before 2030 (this applies for example for wind mills).
62
In terms of new commissioning per year, total projected

investment is similar to the one carried out between 1970
and 2000, but lower than investment carried out between
2000 and 2005. In terms of capital investment expenditure,
the projection estimates a total investment cost 37 of 737
billion 2005 to be spent between 2006 and 2030 for building new power plants and retrofitting old plants.
Gas
73.8
100
The re-establishment of an adequate level of power capacity, after experiencing a decelerated investment pace over
the past few years, drives a slight acceleration of power
investments in the short term, according to the Baseline
scenario. In the medium term, the investment pace slows
down, but increases again towards the last decade of the
projection horizon, mainly due to the decommissioning of
old plants.
Since mid-90s a large part of new power generation investments was made for combined cycle gas turbine technology (CCGT), stimulated by low natural gas prices, relatively low cost of capital and technology characteristics that
were most suitable for the liberalised market conditions.
This trend continues in the short term mainly as a result of
construction commitments taken in the past. New CCGT
plants represent around 51% of total investment in thermal
plants in the period 2005 to 2010. In total CCGT units account for 34% of the total projected thermal plant investments for the period 2006-2030.
Gas power investment is associated with low capital costs,
high efficiency and low emissions, but the variable operating costs are high. For this reason, gas power plants are
less attractive for base load operation and are mainly used
for load following, middle load and peak load, which grows
in importance within the projected load pattern. Also, CHP
applications, which are found to develop considerably in the
Baseline scenario, favour the higher use of gas-based electricity, because of technology flexibility and also for reasons
related to urban or semi-urban environment. For these reasons investment in gas-firing plants keeps a significant
share throughout the projection period, despite relatively
high gas prices. However, the share of gas plants (including all gas technologies) in total investment in thermal
plants (expressed in GW) drops from 73% in the short term
to 44% in 2010-2025 and to 35% in 2025-2030. In total,
213 GW (net) of gas-fired plants are projected to be commissioned between 2006 and 2030, of which 145 GW will
be combined-cycle plants, 44 GW industrial CHP plants
and 14 GW gas turbines open-cycle (the remaining 9.7 GW
are new plants using derived gases, such as coke-oven
and blast-furnace gas).
37
The model takes into account the implications of the large combustion plant directive on unit costs of investment in thermal plants.
Update 2007
By the end of the projection period the continued deterioration of gas competitiveness in power generation vis--vis
coal induces a reversal of the short-term trends. Gas power
investment considerably slows-down and investment in
coal plants re-emerges. Investment in coal-based power
generation units is also favoured by the diminishing contribution of nuclear energy to the base load as a result of the
nuclear policy assumed in the Baseline scenario.
member states for a gradual nuclear phase out and the

fourth one is that it is likely that large nuclear countries will
not replace their entire nuclear capacity after decommissioning. In addition, in the context of the Baseline scenario
it is assumed that Member States with a clear non nuclear
policy keep this policy and that other Member States not
having developed nuclear power so far introduce nuclear in
a prudent way.
Investment in coal and lignite-fired plants, starting with a

share of under 15% of total thermal power investment, account for more than 40% of the total thermal power expansion in the period beyond 2010. Commissioning of 161 GW
(net) of new coal and lignite power plants is projected to
take place between 2006 and 2030. Two third of this investment refers to clean solid fossil fuel technologies,
mostly supercritical combustion technologies. Compared to
total installed capacity of 190 GW of coal and lignite plants
in 2005, the volume of new investment in solid fuel technology may be qualified as a challenge for the industry, if new
cleaner coal technology is targeted. Carbon capture and
storage (CCS) power plants are a modelling option, but are
not part of the Baseline scenario, given that the carbon
price is not high enough to stimulate CCS development.
CCS power plants are more capital intensive and involve
higher variable operating costs than plants without CCS.
Despite these unfavourable conditions, nuclear power

proves to be competitive for base load generation in the
context of the projected fossil fuel prices and the presence
of the EU ETS, despite its moderate carbon price in the
Baseline scenario. A total of 57.6 GW (net) of new nuclear
power plants are projected to be commissioned in the
Baseline scenario between 2000 and 2030. Only 9.4 GW of
these are already certain investments, the rest being part of
the least cost choice as simulated by using the model. The
majority of the new nuclear investment takes place at the
end of the projection period: 48 GW are commissioned between 2020 and 2030. Between 2000 and 2030 a total of
91 GW nuclear plants are projected to be decommissioned.
Since investment in new plants is lower than total decommissioning, nuclear capacity in 2030 is lower than in 2000,
by 33.4 GW.
Investment in oil fired power generation units is low, accounting for 3% of total investment. The 23 GW (net) of
new oil plants to be commissioned between 2006 and 2030
refer either to peak load units or to plants operating in islands and remote areas.
FIGURE 67: NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITIES (GW NET)
Capacity
112.7
Capacity
134.2
Capacity
102.4
New
48.4
New
7.4
2030
20202030
Closure
58.6
2020
20052020
2005
Closure
28.9
The nuclear electricity sector, under the conditions assumed for the Baseline scenario, is characterised by four
main issues. Firstly, there are certain EU-requirements to
close a number of plants in new Member-States due to
safety reasons. Secondly, many plants built in the 1970s
and 1980s reach the end of their conventional lifetime after
2020. The third issue is the political commitment of three
Update 2007
Renewables used for power generation show a remarkable

development. Supportive policies are assumed to apply in
the short-medium term and gradually reduce in scope in the
long term. Renewable technologies benefit from learning by
doing and economies of scale, so they are increasingly
adopted as technological improvement counterbalances the
gradually decreasing incentives.
Biomass based power generation shows significant development in the Baseline scenario. This increase includes
landfill gas utilisation and power produced from solid waste;
the latter is an attractive option in certain specific cases but
is limited in volume. Co-firing of coal or lignite with biomass
in conventional power plants is also taken into account,
subject however to technical limitations. The Baseline scenario takes a rather optimistic view regarding future availability of biomass resources to be used for energy purposes.
The Baseline scenario foresees 42.8 GW of new biomassspecific power plants between 2006 and 2030, representing
6% of total power generation investments and 10% of new
thermal plants to be commissioned during the same period.
The vast majority, 80%, of the biomass plants in 2030 are
CHP plants and use a variety of new technologies, such as
internal combustion engines, bio-gas turbines, high temperature combustion and integrated gasification combined
cycle.
63
Wind power becomes economically competitive over time.

As a consequence, onshore wind develops rapidly in the
short and medium term. Onshore wind capacity triples:
131.8 GW of new onshore wind mills are constructed between 2006 and 2030. The operating capacity of onshore
wind is 129 GW in 2030, since 43 GW of new wind mills are
built to replace wind mills to be decommissioned.
an ascending order of variable operating costs of the dispatchable power plants. Therefore, the number of hours per
year a plant operates depends on fuel prices and plant efficiency. Power exchange markets, which have an increasing role in the EU liberalised electricity market, contribute to
the functioning of such a merit order. The PRIMES model
also simulates plant operation according to variable costs.
Offshore wind starts from a low level and develops rather

slowly in the short term. However offshore wind shows significant development in the long term alongside progress
related with scale and connectivity. A total capacity of 17
GW offshore wind mills is projected in the Baseline scenario in 2030. The contribution of the offshore wind to the
electricity balance is important because its capacity factor
is higher than that of other intermittent renewables.
Concerning fuel cost and prices, the Baseline scenario projects a gradual deterioration of competitiveness of gas relative to coal, which has important consequences for the
structure of the merit order, given that these two fuels are
among the main options for expansion of dispatchable capacity. The assumption of a relatively low carbon price prevailing in the EU ETS has moderate impacts on the merit
order.
Although considerable technology improvement has been

assumed for solar power generation technology, solar energy, mainly photovoltaic (PV) technology, penetrates
slowly. In total 13.7 GW of new PV units are built between
2006 and 2030, one third of which correspond to projects
that are already decided and included in national plans.
The PRIMES model simulates the following scheme of

plant operation:
x Generation by intermittent resources is absorbed by the

system according to prevailing regulations, such as the
feed-in tariffs which are widely applied in the EU.
FIGURE 68: CAPACITY OF RENEWABLES IN GW

350
GW
Biomass
300
250
Solarand
Other
200
x Peak devices are also used for such purposes and contribute mainly as reserve units in peak hours.
Windonshore
x Operation of plants with a strong cogeneration component is usually driven by steam/heat demand and its
load pattern. In the context of the liberalised market the
plant operators seek higher operation flexibility so as to
get a competitive place in the merit order and the power
exchanges. For this purpose they use backup boilers
and other plant design arrangements. So, the traditionally forced operation of CHP plants in the merit order
changes and depends increasingly on their variable operation costs.
50
Hydro
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Regarding hydroelectric power plants, around 5.9 GW of

new investments are foreseen to take place between 2006
and 2030, of which 2.3 GW concern hydro power with reservoir. The vast majority of new hydro investments correspond to already decided or planned projects.
Other RES such as tidal/wave energy and high enthalpy
geothermal energy for power generation play a minor role;
they develop in some countries, where specific potential
exists. Tidal/wave energy is projected to develop mainly
after 2015 reaching 2.4 GW of installed capacity by 2030,
while some 440 MW of new geothermal power stations are
anticipated.
6.5
Power Generation by Source
Power generation by source depends on the merit order

which in a well functioning market is defined according to
64
x Hydropower plants with reservoir operate according to

regular annual cycles and ensure generation in peak
hours. They are also the main contributors of ancillary
services, such as voltage regulation.
Windoffshore
150
100
x Low variable cost plants, such as nuclear, hydro run-ofriver and lignite plants, rank first in the merit order but
their capacities are limited for various reasons.
The main domain of competition among power plants within

the merit order concerns the gas and coal plants. Older
plants are less efficient than new ones and so they lose
their rank in the merit order, as capacity expansion progresses over time. This is taken into account by the model
through its vintage approach and the information in the
plant inventory.
Table 14 and Figure 69 show power generation by planttype. The model simulates the possibility of co-firing in
thermal plants, and so the structure of power generation by
source is slightly different from the numbers shown in these
Update 2007
Avg. Electricity Load Factor (net)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
0.75
0.80
0.83
0.84
0.84
0.92
Solid fuels Plants
0.51
0.53
0.59
0.65
0.71
0.73
0.93
0.77
Large Gas Plants
0.40
0.47
0.42
0.45
0.45
0.44
0.40
Small gas & oil
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.26
0.30
0.32
0.33
Biomass Plants
0.46
0.58
0.48
0.48
0.55
0.52
0.54
Hydro
0.37
0.32
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.34
Wind
0.20
0.20
0.23
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.27
Other RES
0.57
0.37
0.26
0.22
0.20
0.19
0.18
Total
0.47
0.48
0.46
0.49
0.49
0.50
0.50
FIGURE 69: POWER GENERATION BY PLANT-TYPE (NET)

4500
It must be noted that power generation from co-firing of

biomass in coal or lignite power plants is attributed to biomass according to its share and not to the fossil fuel (see
Figure 70 and Figure 71). Co-firing is constantly increasing
throughout the projection period reaching 3% of total fuel
consumption in solid fossil fuel fired power plants in the
period 2010-2030. Power generation from biomass, including co-firing, attains 262 TWh in 2030, almost tripling from
2005. The projection shows that roughly 90% of biomassbased generation is carried out in biomass-specific power
plants.
FIGURE 70: POWER GENERATION (NET) BY SOURCE
4500
Wind
3500
Biomassplants
3000
Hydro
2500
2500
2000
Smallgas&oil
1500
RES
Oil
Gas
2000
1500
1000
SolidfuelsPlants
500
Nuclear
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
The continued deterioration of gas competitiveness in

power generation vis--vis coal also induces a reversal of
the short-term trends concerning the relative use of the
plants. Figure 70 shows that coal and lignite based power,
which represented 29.5% of total power generation in 2000
and decreased to 27.3% in 2005, recovers and grows to
30% by the end of the projection period, indicating that
solid fired power generation will continue to play a major
role in the European energy system.
More specifically, the share of lignite-based generation continues to decrease from 8.4% in 2005 to 7.8% in 2030,
while power generation from coal is increasing constantly
from almost 19% in 2005 to 22.3% in 2025, and stabilises
at 22.1% in 2030. The assumed technology maturity of supercritical coal plants facilitates this re-emergence of coal
and a large part of generation from coal in 2030 will be
based on this clean coal technology.
Generation from gas loses market share, because of slowdown in gas-plant investment, but also because the average rate of use of large scale gas plants reduces over the
15
%
15
%
18
%
22
%
29
%
27
%
32
%
30
%
Solids
LargeGasPlants
1000
Update 2007
4000
2005
3500
3000
TWh
OtherRES
2000
TWh
4000
500
Nuclear
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
21
%
23
%
27
%
25
%
29
%
30
%
21
%
20
%
2030
TABLE 14: AVERAGE POWER LOAD FACTOR
projection period. The share of gas fired units in power

generation rises from 16.9% in 2000 to 21.3% in 2005,
peaking at 25.7% in 2020 and then going down to 24.3% in
2030.
2020
figures. Figure 70 shows power generation according to the

fuel use, i.e. generation from a co-firing is split between
different categories.
As a result of phase out policies and decommissioning,

power generation from nuclear plants reduces by 16% in
2025 from its peak value in 2005 (944 TWh), and remains
in 2030 some 12% lower than in 2005. The share of nuclear generation in total power generation attains 19.8% in
2030, down from 31.5% in 2000.
Under the relatively high oil price conditions of the Baseline
scenario, power generation from petroleum products becomes highly uncompetitive. Consequently, the share of
power generation from oil fired plants declines from 4.6% in
2005 to a mere 1.7% at the end of the projection period.
Power generation from renewable energy is proportionally
lower than their nominal capacity owing to their rather low
capacity factor. Renewable energy, including biomass and
waste, is the fastest growing source of power, showing a
remarkable increase by 2.9% per year in the Baseline scenario, accounting for 23.4% of total power generation in
2030, considerably higher than 15.1% in 2000. Net electricity generated by renewables in 2030, expressed in TWh, is
65
higher than the nuclear electricity and almost as high as the

electricity generated by natural gas.
The increased contribution of renewable power sources is
primarily due to wind and secondarily to biomass development. Power generation from wind reaches 8.2% of total
production by 2030, starting from less than 1% in 2000.
Almost 14% of that amount is offshore wind in 2030. It is
remarkable that wind mills produce in 2030 as much electricity as produced by hydropower which was traditionally
the only renewable source of electricity.
Hydropower remains almost stable over the projection period, attaining a share of 8.3% in total power generation in
2030, down from 9.7% in 2005.
FIGURE 71: POWER GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES
1000
900
Other
TWh
Solar
800
%oftotal
allRES:23.4%
Biomass
&waste
700
6.23%
600
500
Wind
400
8.16%
300
200
8.26%
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
2030
Solar power, high enthalpy geothermal and power from

tidal and waves increase in volume but their shares remain
low, almost insignificant within total power generation. Solar
photovoltaic systems are projected to produce 16.5 TWh of
electricity by 2030.
Cogeneration of Electricity and Heat
Cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) is important for

improving energy efficiency and is supported by MemberStates policies. CHP has also been facilitated by the wide
spread of gas turbines and the low natural gas prices that
prevailed between 1996 and 2003; hence, investment in
CHP plants increased over that period, resulting in an electric capacity of 134 GWe (net) in 2005. CHP accounts for
18% of total installed power capacity and 30% of total
thermal power generation capacity in 2005. The part of
thermal plants with a CHP component is projected to increase slightly up to 33% in 2030. The presence of CHP
components is currently and during the projection horizon,
much more frequent in small and medium plants using gas
(60%) or biomass (75%), than in large-scale coal, lignite
and gas plants (between 20 and 25%).
The development of CHP plants is quite significant in the
Baseline scenario. The scenario projects construction of
66
After accounting for the decommissioning of old plants,

CHP capacity grows to 187 GWe in 2030. While 19% of the
CHP units in 2005 where related to industrial activity, in
2030 this share grows to almost 40%.
Power generation from CHP plants more than doubles in
the projection period reaching 858 TWh (net) in 2030; its
share in total power generation rises from 12.6% in 2005 to
20.5% in 2030. The share of heat/steam generation from
CHP units in total heat/steam generation 38 rises also significantly; from 28% in 2005 up to 46% in 2030.
Regarding fuel mix of power generation from CHP units,
the dominant fuel in 2005 was gas accounting for 45% of
the total. Coal and lignite accounted for another 35% followed by oil fired units with a share of 11% of power generation, and by biomass producing just 9% of the power
generated by CHP units.
Hydro
100
6.6
116 GWe (net) between 2006 and 2030, which account for
26% of total investment in thermal power plants during that
period. Half of these new CHP plants are expected to be
gas fired units. Solid fossil fuel fired units with a CHP component account for 11% of total CHP investments, oil fired
CHP plants have a share of 9% whereas biomass accounts
for 27% of total CHP investment.
The Baseline scenario shows further development of gas

fired units for CHP, rapid expansion of biomass-based CHP
and a decline of oil plants. By 2030, 51% of power generated by CHP units is projected to derive from gas, solid
fossil fuels are expected to account for 19%, oil declines to
3% and biomass becomes a major CHP producer with a
share of 27%.
In the framework of a liberalised electricity market the operation of CHP plants is less driven by the pattern of steam
load as it was the case in the earlier years of CHP development. This is depicted in the electricity to steam/heat
generation ratio which grows from an average of 46% in
2005 to 75% in 2030, indicating that the further deployment
of the CHP plants is mainly electricity driven. The Baseline
scenario findings indicate that under a least-cost view the
presence of a CHP component is maintained in almost one
third of thermal power plants over the entire projection period.
TABLE 15: POWER CAPACITY OF PLANTS WITH CHP COMPONENT
GW
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Solid fuels Plants 47.9
48.0
39.5
43.0
43.2
40.3
33.8
Large Gas Plants 26.0
27.4
30.5
31.3
37.7
42.3
45.0
Small gas & oil
42.4
47.9
44.3
48.5
52.5
54.3
53.0
Biomass plants
7.2
10.3
12.9
15.7
24.9
30.7
38.2
Total
38
123.5 133.7 127.3 138.5 158.3 167.6 170.0
Including heat generated by industrial boilers on site.
Update 2007
TABLE 16: CHP INDICATORS

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Overall CHP Efficiency
20.3
21.1
21.1
Solid fuels Plants 0.31
0.31
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.39
0.41
50.3
Large Gas Plants 0.39
0.42
0.48
0.50
0.50
0.51
0.52
Small gas & oil
0.27
0.29
0.38
0.39
0.41
0.42
0.42
Biomass plants
0.19
0.22
0.28
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.34
6.7
Fuel Consumption for Power Generation
A CHP plant consumes fuels to produce both electricity and

steam. In the absence of steam cogeneration, a plant with
CHP component consumes less fuel than when producing
both electricity and steam. When a table or figure in this
section mentions not adjusted for CHP it is meant that fuel
consumption is attributed entirely to electricity generation.
When it mentions adjusted for CHP fuel consumption attributed to electricity generation is reduced, the remaining
part being attributed to steam production. This latter approach is reflected in the Eurostat statistics. As mentioned
in a previous section, the model estimates in detail the
amount of fuels that correspond to steam generated by
CHP and consumed directly on site in industry. Eurostat
includes these amounts in industrial consumption and not
in power generation. The figures mentioning not adjusted
for CHP include also the fuels corresponding to steam
from on-site CHP as attributed to electricity generation and
not to steam.
The Baseline scenario assumes that the technology of
thermal power generation will continue to deliver more efficient plants. During the last ten years, the providers of
power generation equipment achieved spectacular progress in terms of conversion efficiency through the combined thermodynamic cycle, which is projected to reach
efficiency rates approaching 0.60 (in terms of gross 39 electricity generation). The progress of supercritical coal combustion technology is also worth mentioning, which is ex-
39
The efficiency rates in terms of net electricity production are

lower because self consumption of electricity by the plant is considered as a loss.
Update 2007
These developments are included in the Baseline scenario,

together with significant improvements in all other thermal
plant technologies. Their effect on average thermal power
efficiency depends on investment pace, since progress is
embedded in new power plants. Also, the effective efficiency rates are generally lower than state-of-the-art rates,
because of plant operation schedules that differ from the
optimal ones. For example, a combined cycle plant operating under market conditions is often obliged to vary its load
factor, deviating from theoretically optimal operating conditions.
FIGURE 72: FUELS USED BY THERMAL POWER GENERATION
(ADJUSTED FOR CHP)
Mtoe
500
Geother
mal
450
%oftotalinputto
Thermal
Biomass
14
400
350
6
7
11
31
33
31
18
16
15
36
39
39
2030
The overall energy efficiency rate of CHP plants, defined as

the ratio of electricity and useful steam output per unit of
fuel input, is projected to increase in the Baseline scenario.
As electricity sales are projected to be determinant for the
pattern of plant operation, the average steam to electricity
ratio decreases over time from 2.1 in 2005 to only 1.3 in
2030. According to the Baseline scenario, this change is
associated with the wider use of combined cycle and gas
turbines with heat recovery technologies. By contrast,
backpressure technology for CHP develops less than in the
past in the Baseline scenario.
2020
50.0
2005
48.9
Average (old
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
and new plants)
15
Gas
300
24
Oil
250
200
Lignite
150
45
100
Coal
50
0
1990
45.0
1.3
2030
42.7
1.3
2025
46.9
1.4
2020
44.2
0.83
2015
% Steam from
CHP
0.82
2010
Steam to Electricity Generation Ratio

(gross)
2.2
2.1
1.6
1.5
% Electricity from CHP
(gross)
12.6 12.7 16.6 17.8
TABLE 17: EFFECTIVE AVERAGE NET EFFICIENCY RATES (NOT

ADJUSTED FOR CHP)
0.81
2005
0.80
2000
0.76
1995
0.68
1990
0.63
(gross)
pected to deliver coal plants with efficiency rates higher

than 0.45 (gross).
In 1990 coal and lignite accounted for 68% of total fuel

consumption in thermal power plants, while the shares of
gas and oil were 15% and 14%, respectively, followed by
biomass with 2%. The new market conditions have induced
significant changes in the fuel mix already in the beginning
of the millennium. Between 1990 and 2005, the share of
coal and lignite dropped by 15 percentage points to 54%
and oil products decreased by 7 percentage points to 7%;
gas doubled its share from 1990 contributing 32% in 2005;
biomass reached 6% in 2005.
The Baseline scenario shows that the importance of natural
gas for power generation will continue in the future. The
volume of natural gas consumed in power and CHP gen-
67
eration is projected to increase in the medium term and to

stabilise in the long run. The projection shows that in 2020
the EU thermal power generation will require on average
some 10% more gas compared to 2005.
Hard coal will be equally important for power generation. Its
consumption is projected to increase over time, particularly
after 2020 when it will partly replace nuclear energy in base
load generation. The share of coal in total fuel input to
thermal power generation is projected to be above 50%
over the entire projection period. In the period after 2015,
the EU coal demand for power generation will be at least
20% higher compared to 2005. The use of lignite in power
generation slightly declines over time driven mainly by resource supply limitations. Its share stabilises roughly at
14% in the long term, significantly down from 24% in 1990.
Biomass-based energy forms are projected to be increasingly used for power and steam generation. Around 35% of
its consumption in the long term is attributed to waste energy. The volume of biomass and waste consumed in
power and CHP generation is projected almost to double in
2030 compared to 2005. For 2020, the projection shows
that biomass and waste requirements for electricity generation (including CHP production) will be 34% higher compared to 2005.
The use of derived gases is driven by the activity of integrated steelworks, which is assumed to maintain its position in the EU industrial structure. Their share in total fuels
used for power and CHP production is small staying below
2%. The use of oil products is projected to decline: the EU
will use for electricity generation and CHP in 2030 only one
third compared to 2005.
Replacement of old units, development of new technologies
and shift to new fuels, underpinned a continuous improvement in thermal efficiency in power generation sector. The
average improvement in energy efficiency of thermal power
generation, measured as the ratio of gross electricity output
divided by the energy content of input fuels, was remarkably steady in the period 1990 to 2005, around 1% per year.
This is a notable performance for a sector with so slow
capital turnover.
The average increase of energy efficiency of thermal generation in the period 2005-2030 is projected to be equal to
1.1% per year. The projection involves faster progress between 2005 and 2020 (1.5% per year) driven by the massive investment in combined cycle technology, the penetration of supercritical coal technology and the wide use of
modern gas turbines in smaller-scale applications. The rate
of improvement of energy efficiency of thermal power is
projected to slow down in the longer term, attaining on average 0.6% per year.
68
TABLE 18: NET ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY RATES

(not adjusted
for CHP)
Solids
Changein%pa
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 05-20 20-30

0.32 0.31 0.34 0.37 0.41 1.22 0.95
Oil
0.29
0.29
0.37
0.38
0.42 1.77
1.14
Nat. Gas
0.34
0.39
0.46
0.49
0.50 1.44
0.39
Der. Gas
0.25
0.28
0.41
0.41
0.42 2.64
0.16
Biomass
0.19
0.23
0.29
0.33
0.34 2.46
0.25
Total Net Therma 0.31
0.33
0.38
0.41
0.43 1.49
0.58
FIGURE 73: GROSS ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY RATE

0.55
0.51
0.50
0.45
0.39
0.46
0.40
0.35 0.33
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.30
AverageforGrossThermalPower
0.20
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
19902005
20052020
20202030
20052030
CHPAdjusted
0.96
1.44
0.69
1.14
Notadjusted
1.01
1.43
0.62
1.10
% change per year
If adjusted for CHP, the average conversion efficiency of

thermal power in terms of gross generation attains 0.51 in
2030, up from 0.39 in 2005 and 0.33 in 1990.
6.8
Costs and Prices of Electricity
The PRIMES model performs detailed calculations for electricity generation, distribution and sales costs and determines explicit prices per sector of activity. Pricing is assumed to reflect all kinds of costs, including capital costs,
increased by a profit mark-up which depends on the prevailing market competition regime. The prices are differentiated by type of sector on the basis of sectors price elasticities, and the association of costs with the specific load
pattern of the sector and its voltage connection. The Baseline scenario assumes that a well functioning market will
prevail, leading to a gradual reduction of profit mark-ups.
This is a rather optimistic assumption from the consumer's
point of view, especially for the short term.
The calculation of prices also takes into account taxes,
subsidies, if applicable, and the impact of CO2 emission
costs. As regards the latter, the Baseline scenario assumes
an EU ETS system based on a grandfathering scheme
(emission allowances are allocated for free to installations).
The Baseline scenario also assumes that a well functioning
market will reduce the degree of passing through to consumer prices the opportunity costs associated with the carbon price of the EU ETS. Hence, power producers will
mostly pass through to consumers true emission abate-
Update 2007
ment costs induced by the scarcity of emission allowances

and are less able to pass through the opportunity cost associated with grandfathered emission allowances. As such,
windfall profits will be limited in the model results under
baseline assumptions.
TABLE 19: POWER SYSTEM COSTS AND PRICES
GenerationCosts
Annualcapitalcosts
NonFuelGener.Costs
Fuelcosts
GridandSupplyCosts
Profitmarkup
Avg.PretaxPriceof
Electricity
ElectricityTaxes
Avg.EnduserPriceof
Electricity
2000
53.3
17.5
13.3
22.5
16.4
14.7
'2005/MWh
Changein%
2005 2010 2020 2030 0005 0530
59.5 59.4 63.1 65.1 2.2 0.4
18.9 20.7 22.2 24.2 1.5 1.0
13.2 13.1 12.4 11.5 0.2 0.5
27.4 25.5 28.6 29.4 4.1 0.3
17.5 17.8 18.5 19.1 1.3 0.3
6.4 5.6
5.0
5.7 15.4 0.5
84.4 83.4 82.7
86.7
89.8
0.2
0.3
11.2 14.6 14.7
15.1
15.2
5.5
0.2
95.6 98.0 97.5 101.8 105.0
0.5
0.3
TABLE 20: STRUCTURE OF POWER SYSTEM COSTS
Annualcapitalcosts
NonFuelGener.Costs
Fuelcosts
GenerationCosts
GridandSupplyCosts
Profitmarkup
%ElectricityTaxation
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

GenerationCostsin%
32.8 31.7 34.9 35.1 37.1
25.0 22.2 22.1 19.6 17.7
42.2 46.0 43.0 45.3 45.1
PretaxPricein%
63.2 71.4 71.7 72.8 72.4
19.4 21.0 21.5 21.4 21.2
17.5 7.7 6.7
5.8
6.3
11.7 14.9 15.1 14.8 14.5
The main factor inducing changes in electricity costs over

the projection horizon is related to the rising world fossil
fuel prices compared to their level in 2000 and the competitiveness losses incurred for natural gas power technologies.
The direct effect is due to rising fuel costs. The indirect effect is due to the changing fuel mix in which coal reemerges. Capital costs of coal power are substantially
higher than those for gas technologies, implying increasing
shares of capital in total cost.
The cost implications of the increasing use of renewables
and biomass are similar. According to the fuel price trajectory assumed for the Baseline scenario, the increases in
the fuel price have taken place mostly in the period 20002005. Beyond 2010, fuel prices increase further in a moderate way. However, the effects on the fuel mix and the
capital costs take place with some delay owing to the slow
capital turnover in the sector.
Technology progress implies reduction of plants unit investment costs but increasing environmental regulations
pull these costs upwards. The net effect is however towards decreasing unit investment costs especially for renewables and the more advanced thermal power technologies.
Update 2007
FIGURE 74: COST AND PRICE OF ELECTRICITY

120
100
'05/MWh
96
98
97
98
102 103 105

ElectricityTaxes
80
Profitmarkup
60
GridandSupply
Costs
40
Fuelcosts
20
0
NonFuelGener.
Costs
Annualcapital
costs
Least cost expansion and operation of the electricity system enables electricity prices to increase on average at a
slower pace than fossil fuel price increases. Profit mark-ups
decline in the short term, as they did in a more pronounced
way between 2000 and 2005. This decline was driven by
increased market competition following liberalization that is
applied progressively after 2000. The effects of this process
are assumed to vanish beyond 2015, but the resulting well
functioning market, as assumed in the Baseline scenario,
keeps mark-ups low.
The costs associated with transmission and distribution
grids are assumed to be fully regulated following a natural
monopoly approach. Unit costs of grid expansion are assumed to decrease as a result of technology progress.
However, the increasing production from intermittent renewables and the increased generation from dispersed
sources drive grid expenditures upwards.
The estimations of costs and prices for past years are
based on the model which has been calibrated to reproduce statistics on electricity prices. All unit costs shown in
Table 19 and in Figure 74 are evaluated on the basis of
total sales to customers, excluding losses and selfconsumption.
The estimation of costs shows that between 2000 and 2005
the unit cost of generation has increased by 12% driven by
a 22% increase of unit cost of fuels. Unit costs for capital
and for the grid have increased less (8% and 7% respectively). The increasing competition has driven a fall of average pre-tax price of electricity by 1% between 2000 and
2005. However, the average price of electricity paid by endusers has increased by 3% because of a rise in electricity
taxes.
The Baseline scenario estimates that between 2005 and
2030 the unit cost of generation will increase by 9% in total,
driven by an increase of unit capital costs (28%) and unit
69
fuel costs (7%). Variable and fixed operating costs are projected to decrease by 13% over that period. Unit cost of
grid and supply services are projected to rise by 9% between 2005 and 2030. The effects from increased market
competition vanish progressively leading to a small discrepancy between the pre-tax sales price and total unit cost
towards the end of the projection horizon.
The average pre-tax price of electricity, at constant prices,
is projected to rise by 8% between 2005 and 2030 (0.3%
per year). Electricity taxes are projected to stay at a level of
around 15% of end-user prices.
The cost structure of power generation is projected to
change. The part of capital costs is projected to rise and
attain 37.1% of total generation costs by 2030, up from
31.7% in 2005. Fuel costs keep a rather stable share,
around 45% of total generation costs. Grid and supply
costs represent around 21% of average pre-tax electricity
price, over the entire projection period.
FIGURE 75: ELECTRICITY PRICES (PRE-TAX) BY SECTOR
120
'2005/MWh
110
100
90
80
Households
Services
Average
pretax
price
70
60
Industry
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity tariffs by sector follow relatively diverse trajectories. Industrial tariffs are growing constantly at an average
rate of 0.3% per year between 2005 and 2030. They have
increased at a higher rate between 2000 and 2005. The
average residential tariffs slightly decline up to 2010 (0.5%
per year) and increase afterwards at an average rate of
0.8% per year. Tariffs for electricity supply to the services
sector show a similar trajectory but their decline is faster
between 2000 and 2010 (1.4% per year) and their increase
is much lower between 2010 and 2030: only 0.4% per year.
This trend reflects the changes in the cost structure of
power generation and the diversity of marginal costs for
mid- and base load. As market competition increases in this
sector, the model projects that cross-subsidies between
customers gradually diminish.
In addition, the integration of the EU energy markets and
the progressive harmonization of business practices across
the EU (i.e. regarding rates of return to capital and pricing
policies), drive harmonization of electricity tariffs across the
Member-States. Electricity tariffs tend to become more uni-
70
form across European countries, involving higher increase

of tariffs in countries with currently low prices.
6.9
Electricity trade within the EU
Bilateral electricity trade is projected to change, leading to a

more balanced distribution of power exports among countries. This trend is facilitated by increasing investment in
base-load generation, using nuclear and coal, in several
new EU Member-States.
The overall trade volume is slightly decreasing in the EU as
percentage of total electricity consumption, although interconnection capacities are assumed to increase. This is
consistent with the least-cost perspective taken by the
Baseline scenario. Unless justified by the location of low
cost resources (a factor which is decreasing in importance
in the EU), location of new plants near the load centres
entails lower supply costs. The wider use of imported fuels
in power generation, like natural gas and imported coal,
also drives plant location near load centres.
6.10 Carbon Intensity of Power Generation

The Baseline scenario shows increasing carbon dioxide
emissions from power generation. The sector fails to continue the emissions reduction observed between 1990 and
2000.
Emissions of CO2 in power generation dropped by 7% in
2000 compared to 1990 (by 5% if fuels used for on-site
CHP are also included 40 ). Emissions increased by 5% between 2000 and 2005, showing a clear reversal of past
trends. The Baseline scenario reflects a slight decrease of
CO2 emissions in power generation by 2010, but then
emissions start increasing again, albeit at a rather slow
pace. By 2030, CO2 emissions in power generation are
projected to be 4% higher than in 1990 (5% if fuels used for
on-site CHP are also included).
Although the Baseline scenario does not include strong
policies for CO2 emission reduction, electricity (and CHP
steam) generated grow much faster than emissions. The
carbon intensity of electricity generation (i.e. tons of CO2
divided by TWh of electricity produced) reduces by 24%
between 2005 and 2030, following a reduction of 23% between 1990 and 2005. This reduction displays a faster pace
in the short term as a result of the natural gas expansion to
the detriment of coal and the rapid penetration of renewables. The reduction is slower in the long term because of
the coal re-emergence, the non replacement of the nuclear
capacity to be decommissioned, and the slower penetration
of renewables.
40
As mentioned in previous sections, Eurostat statistics include

part of fuels used for on-site CHP production in industry and not in
power generation. The model has estimated these amounts retrospectively and for the projection horizon.
Update 2007
TABLE 21: DECOMPOSITION OF CARBON INTENSITY CHANGES
FIGURE 76: CARBON-RELATED INDICATORS

0.55
CO2Intensityof
Power
Generation(t
CO2/MWh)
Efficiencyof
ThermalPower
Generation
(ratio)
CarbonFree
Generation
(share)
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
0.20
CO2PerUnitof
FossilFuelsused
(tCO2/MWh
fuel)
Changes in % between 1990 - 2000 - 2005 - 2020 two dates

2000 2005 2020 2030
Effect from Fossil Fuel
Substitution
Effect from Thermal
Efficiency Improvement
Effect from Fossil Fuel
Share in Generation
CO2 Intensity of Power
Generation
-5.1%
0.2%
-0.2%
-12.2% -3.2% -20.9% -7.9%
-28.9%
-4.9%
-2.4%
1.7%
-0.4%
20052030
7.1%
-1.8%
-22.2% -4.0% -14.3% -9.6%
5.3%
-23.8%
The energy efficiency of thermal power generation is improving considerably during the projection period, continuing past trends, as a result of the penetration of combined
cycle and coal supercritical technologies in the long term.
This is the decisive factor in the reduction of carbon intensity in power generation, as it is also illustrated in Table 21.
FIGURE 77: CO2 EMISSIONS AND POWER GENERATION

MtCO2
TWh
1600
4500
4000
1500
3500
1400
3000
2500
Gross
Electricity
Generation
(TWh)
FossilFuel
GrossPower
(TWh)
1300
2000
1200
1500
1000
1100
500
1000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CO2 Thermal
Powerincl.
fuelsforon
siteCHP(in
Mt)
CO2 Thermal
Power(inMt)
Figure 76 shows the evolution of three key indicators that

explain the projected reduction of carbon intensity of power
generation.
Emissions per unit of fossil fuels used (fossil fuel substitution effect) reflect the relative share of natural gas in the
mix of fossil fuels used for thermal power generation. This
indicator has decreased considerably between 1990 and
2005, but the Baseline scenario projects its stabilisation in
the future.
The share of carbon free generation, including biomass,
other renewables and nuclear, has increased between
1990 and 1995, but according to the projections it displays
a decreasing trend until 2025, as a result of the slowdown
in nuclear and despite higher renewables contribution to
power generation. The share of carbon free generation
goes up again after 2025 with new nuclear plants being
commissioned during the last five years of the projection
period.
Update 2007
Steam and Heat Production in the EU
The PRIMES model devotes special care to the detailed

analysis of steam and heat production and supply. It distinguishes between distribution of steam and heat (the latter
corresponds to district heating) and splits their production
between boilers and cogeneration plants. Possible substitutions in the supply of steam and heat are simulated as
driven by relative costs and prices, depending on the development of distribution infrastructure which differs by
Member-State.
Cogeneration is the main supplier of steam/heat in the EU
(covering about 50% of total), followed by industrial boilers
(roughly 40%). District heating boilers have developed unequally in the Member-States and for the EU taken as a
whole they account for about 10% of total supply. Their
share is projected to decline, attaining 8.5% in 2030. The
Baseline scenario shows an increasing contribution of CHP
in total steam/heat supply, reaching a share of 55% in
2030, of which roughly 55% is consumed on-site. Only one
third of steam/heat produced is distributed to third parties.
TABLE 22: SUMMARY OF STEAM/HEAT BALANCE
Changes
2000
SteamfromCHP
68.8
ofwhichdistributed 31.8
SteamfromBoilers
54.9
DistrictHeat.Boilers
15.9
Steam/HeatSupply
139.7
Losses
3.9
Steam/HeatUses
Industry
72.5
EnergyBranch
31.2
DomesticSector
32.1
in%pa
Mtoe
2005 2020 2030 0530
74.4 91.2 97.8
1.1
35.5 39.8 40.8
0.6
57.9 65.1 66.2
0.5
13.3 15.1 15.3
0.6
145.6 171.4 179.3
0.8
4.4
3.6
2.1 2.9
75.9
34.2
31.1
94.4 102.7
40.8 42.2
32.6 32.2
1.2
0.9
0.1
Sharesin
Total,%
2005 2030
51.1 54.6
24.4 22.8
39.8 36.9
9.1
8.5
100.0 100.0
3.1
1.2
52.1
23.5
21.4
57.3
23.5
18.0
In the beginning of the 90s, steam/heat production was

mainly using solid fuels and oil products. Between 1990
71
and 2005 the fuel mix changed in favour of natural gas.

Biomass and waste also penetrated this market. With the
exception of refinery boilers, which use oil distillates for
steam production, the Baseline scenario shows a continuation of these trends in favour of gas and biomass, especially for the short and medium term. In the long term, gas
penetration slows down, coal use slightly re-emerges, but
the use of oil products continues to decline. Energy efficiency is projected to improve in all means of steam/heat
production.
8
8.1
Primary Energy Outlook for the EU

Primary Energy Demand
Total primary energy requirements, termed as Gross Inland

Consumption according to Eurostat definitions, refer to primary energy forms and include both their direct use by endconsumers (for energy and non energy purposes) and their
use by energy suppliers performing conversion of energy
from one form to another. Distribution losses and self consumption by energy suppliers are also included. Eurostat
measures renewables, such as hydro, wind and solar PV,
in terms of electricity they produce. All other primary energy
forms used for power generation are measured according
to their inputs to power generation. The analysis below, as
well as the appendices, is based on the Eurostat definitions
of primary energy.
The results of the Baseline scenario show that primary energy requirements of the EU will continue to grow, albeit at
rates lower than in the past. EU Gross Inland Consumption
is projected to increase by 0.41% per year between 2005
and 2030, down from 0.62% per year in the period 1990 to
2005. These rates are significantly lower than the corresponding GDP growth rates. Consequently, energy intensity (measured by the ratio of Gross Inland Consumption
over GDP at constant prices) displays a steadily decreasing
trend. The decrease in the energy intensity during 19902005, 1.4% per year, is projected to continue between 2005
and 2030, although at a faster pace (1.7%).
The decrease in energy intensity decelerated during 20002005 (0.6% per year), especially between 2001 and 2003.
Two factors seem to explain this deceleration: firstly, the
EU enlargement and market integration have induced
abrupt increase of trade flows, hence higher activity and
energy consumption in the transport sector; secondly, the
EU has experienced relatively low GDP growth rates during
this period and associated slower investment paces in all
sectors, leading to a deceleration of technology progress
enabling higher energy efficiency. From 2003 onwards, the
energy consumers experienced rising energy prices driven
by a tight world oil market. The price increases induced
lower growth of energy consumption, even a reduction of
72
energy demand in some sectors, which further resulted in

an acceleration of energy intensity gains, as shown by the
most recent statistics.
The Baseline scenario adopts the view that two main factors, namely the energy efficiency improvement in all energy activities (also supported by sustained GDP growth)
and the persisting high energy prices, will drive accelerated
energy intensity gains in the future. In addition, structural
change of economic activity towards more services and
non-energy intensive industrial production fosters energy
intensity improvements.
Solid fuels have experienced a continuous decrease, by
3.3% per year, between 1990 and 2000, but their primary
energy consumption stabilised in the period 2000-2005.
The Baseline scenario projects that total primary energy
consumption of solid fuels will remain rather stable in the
short term while from 2015 onwards it will start increasing,
driven by power generation. Power generation will account
for almost 80% of total consumption of solid fuels. The rest
will be used in specific industrial applications, like the integrated steelworks. Primary energy needs for hard coal increase faster than for lignite, which remains stable and
slightly declines in the long term. Demand for solid fuels
peaks in 2025, with consumption being 8% higher than in
2005. The share of solid fuels in Gross Inland Consumption
remains at roughly 17% throughout the projection period.
FIGURE 78: GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION
Mtoe
2000
Renewables
1500
Gas
1000
Lquids
500
Solids
Nuclear
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Primary energy needs of oil, driven by increasing consumption for transportation purposes, went up by 0.41% per year
between 1990 and 2005. The increasing specialisation in
transport and petrochemicals plus the increasing activity in
these sectors is projected to drive further increase of oil
requirements, albeit at a slower pace than in the past:
0.25% per year between 2005 and 2030. The Baseline
scenario shows that oil will continue to be the largest
source of energy, maintaining a share above 35% in Gross
Inland Consumption.
Update 2007
FIGURE 79: STRUCTURE OF GROSS INLAND CONSUMPTION

%Shares(Eurostat defintions)
4.5
6.8
10.0
11.8
RES
%Change
between2005
and2030
17.9
24.6
27.3
250
Index
1990=100
GDP
200
25.7
25.7
93.4%
16.1%
35.7
GrossInland
Consum
ption
Gas
37.9
36.7
FIGURE 80: GDP AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
150
Liquids
35.3
6.4%
100
4.9%
50
Solids
17.7
17.4
16.7
12.3
14.2
11.3
10.3
1990
2005
2020
2030
Nuclear
19.8%
Natural gas was the fastest growing fuel among the fossil
fuels used in the EU, increasing by 2.78% per year between 1990 and 2005. All sectors (with the exception of
transport) adopted natural gas to replace coal and oil, owing to its cleanliness and easiness of use. The power generation sector experienced the most rapid penetration of
gas through the combined cycle technology, which was a
perfect choice under the market conditions prevailing over
the past few years. This sector accounted for 35% of total
gas used in the EU, up from 19% in 1990.
The Baseline scenario takes the view that natural gas will
continue to be the preferred choice by end-consumers and
will also preserve a substantial share in the power generation market, despite its high relative price. Gas is challenged by coal in the power sector, which is projected to be
increasingly used beyond 2015. Nevertheless gas preserves a share of 25% in power generation by 2030, up
from 20% in 2005. Total EU natural gas requirements are
projected to increase by 0.6% per year between 2005 and
2030 and to be 16% higher in 2030 compared to 2005. Gas
accounts for roughly 26% of Gross Inland Consumption
between 2015 and 2030.
Renewables ranked first in terms of growth between 1990
and 2005 (3.47% per year, according to Eurostat accounting definitions) and are projected to continue to rank first in
the future, growing by 2.67% per year between 2005 and
2030. Energy from hydropower is projected to increase at a
low rate (0.5% per year between 2005 and 2030), but solar
energy is projected to grow much faster (10% per year)
starting however from a very low level. The main drivers of
the increasing use of renewables are wind energy (6.5%
per year) and biomass-waste energy (2.67% per year).
Their rapid development started already in 2000 and is
shown to be higher in the medium term, followed by a
slower pace in the long term.
Update 2007
Energy
Intensity
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
According to Eurostat accounting methodology for renewables, the share of total renewables in Gross Inland Consumption reaches 11.8% in 2030 and 10% in 2020, up from
6.8% in 2005 and only 4.5% in 1990. Wind power in 2030
becomes as large as hydropower, while biomass-waste
requirements in 2030 double compared to 2005. Solar energy grows tenfold between 2005 and 2030.
Recently, Eurostat introduced a new indicator termed
share of renewables in Gross Final Energy Consumption,
which is measured as a ratio of renewable energy used in
all sectors (including the part of electricity and heat generated by renewables) over final energy demand increased
by distribution losses and self consumption of electricity
and steam.
This ratio increases in the Baseline scenario to reach
12.5% in 2020 and 14.5% in 2030 compared with 8.5%
according to Eurostat statistics. Consequently, the renewables developments in the Baseline scenario are not sufficient to achieve the 20% renewables target endorsed by
the European Council of March 2007.
Nuclear energy (measured in primary energy terms according to Eurostat definitions) attained its peak in 2005, when it
accounted for 14.2% of Gross Inland Consumption. The
projection shows a continuous decline of nuclear energy by
0.88% per year during 2005-2030. Nuclear energy loses 4
percent points between 2005 and 2030, in terms of its
share in Gross Inland Consumption.
Adding together renewables and nuclear (Eurostat definitions), carbon-free primary energy forms account for 22.1%
of Gross Inland Consumption in 2030, slightly up from 21%
in 2005.
73
8.2
Primary Energy Supply
8.2.1
Indigenous Primary Production of Energy
For several reasons, the EU is currently experiencing a
decline in the indigenous production of fossil fuels. The
production of fossil fuels was 21% lower in 2005 compared
to 1990.
EU indigenous coal production has declined considerably
between 1990 and 2005 and is projected to further decline
during the projection horizon. In 2005, coal produced in the
EU was halved compared to 1990 and the Baseline projects coal production reducing to only 62 Mtoe by 2020.
Imported coal and coke outpass indigenous production of
coal before 2015.
The reason is that, after a long lasting mining history, the
EU coal producing industry is lacking cheap coal resources
and is facing increasing operating and extraction costs
compared to imported coal prices. Increasing extraction
costs and other factors related to the local environment in
the proximity of opencast mines explain the projected non
expansion of lignite exploitation in the EU.
FIGURE 81: INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION OF FOSSIL FUELS
300
Mtoe
250
200
150
Coal
Lignite
Oil
Gas
100
50
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
The EU oil and gas upstream industry has developed impressively after the mid-eighties but is facing today declining resources, despite intensive efforts to increase the recovery rate in mature fields as well as in newer smaller
fields. Oil production has peaked in 1999, followed by a
peak in the gas production in 2001. There is little evidence
that new discoveries in the EU will alter the declining production trend.
The Baseline scenario shows a slower declining pace for
gas than for oil. Indigenous gas production will be 59%
lower in 2030 than its peak and oil production will be 77%
lower.
Since nuclear energy (considered as indigenous source by
Eurostat) also declines in the Baseline scenario, renewables are the only growing indigenous energy resources.
Indigenous production of biomass-waste energy, starting
74
from 4.8% of total indigenous energy production in the EU

in 1990, attains a share of 9% in 2005 and is projected to
approach 23% by 2030. Primary production of biomasswaste is projected to exceed indigenous production of solid
fuels by 2025, in energy terms.
Traditionally the main source of biomass used for energy
purposes was wood and wood waste, accounting for 85%
of total indigenous biomass-waste energy in 1990. Wood,
wood-waste and processed fuels of wood origin are used
by end-consumers in a variety of applications and their use,
for example in the form of pellets, in steam and power generation is also increasing.
The projection 41 shows wood and wood waste to remain an
important source of energy in the future. Its share within
total indigenous biomass will decline as its further development is slow driven by limited additional resources: 0.6%
per year between 2005 and 2030, down from 3.28% per
year in 1990-2005. The share of wood resources in biomass-waste is projected to reach 45% in 2030, down from
74% in 2005.
Waste used for energy purposes is increasing in importance, facilitated by growing investment in its collection and
in waste processing. Waste energy in the gas form has the
smallest potential but its exploitation is more economic than
of other types of waste.
The projection shows a rapid development of energy applications for landfill gas, mostly in power and steam generation, which reached a share of 4.3% in total indigenous
biomass in 2005 and is projected to further increase by
2.5% per year. Municipal and industrial waste is also used
for energy purposes, accounting for 14% of total indigenous
biomass in 2005. They are shown to develop further at an
average growth rate of 2.8% per year throughout the projection period, which is consistent with the increase in their
resource potential. Waste energy maintains a rather constant share in total indigenous biomass-waste energy,
ranging between 17 and 20% throughout the projection
period.
The remaining part of indigenous biomass-waste energy
comes from crops and agricultural residues. The use of
crops for energy purposes, inexistent in 1990, emerged
before 2000, driven by the production of biofuels used in
transportation. In primary energy terms, crops for biofuels
reached a share of 3.8% of total indigenous biomass-waste
energy in 2005. Their future development, driven by biofuels production, is possible from the point of view of potential
resources because the scenario shows development of the
41
The analysis about biomass is based on the biomass sub-model

of PRIMES which runs independently from the core model and is
very detailed regarding biomass resources and the processing,
technologies. However the model is not fully mature yet to publish
more detailed results.
Update 2007
second generation processing technologies of biofuels. The

development of second generation processing technologies
for biofuels takes place mainly after 2015 and consists of
the processing of lignocellulosic biomass. Crops for biofuels are projected to grow by 10.6% per year between 2005
and 2030, and to attain a share of 25% of total indigenous
biomass and waste energy.
FIGURE 82: INDIGENOUS BIOMASS-WASTE PRODUCTION
coal extraction. After 2002, the statistics show that import

dependence ratio started to rise, approaching 53% in 2005.
The Baseline scenario projects this tendency to continue in
the future and the dependence ratio to equal 66.6% by
2030. Thus, two thirds of EU energy requirements must be
met by (net) imports in 2030. EU oil import dependence,
ranging from 75 to 80% in the period 1990 to 2005, rises up
to 95% in 2030.
180
Mtoe
160
Cropsfor
biofuel
140
120
Residuesand
Othercrops
100
80
Waste
60
40
Woodand
woodwaste
20
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Before 2002, imports of natural gas were covering less than

half of the EU needs, but they are projected to rise beyond
50% throughout the projection period and to cover 83.6% of
the EU gas needs in 2030. By 2010, gas import dependence will already exceed 60%. For hard coal, net imports
have already been higher than indigenous production in
2004. Hard coal import dependence is expected to attain
80.5% in 2030, while the solid fuels dependence increases
to 62.5%.
FIGURE 83: IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF THE EU
100
90
80
70
Summarising, the Baseline scenario includes the development of a biomass industry in the EU which is based on
indigenous resources, driving significant development of
agricultural activity. Given the high increase in other renewables production, which by definition are indigenous,
total primary indigenous productions of non-fossil energy
forms account for 63.6% of total indigenous production in
2030, up from 42.3% in 2005 and 29.6% in 1990.
8.2.2
Net Imports to the EU and Import Dependence
The continuous growth of energy demand and the decline
in EU indigenous fossil fuel production, during the projection horizon, imply increasing dependence on imports of
fossil fuels. The indigenous renewable energy growth is not
sufficient to change this outcome.
The import dependence indicator, measured as the ratio of
net imports of energy over Gross Inland Consumption plus
bunkers, was almost constant (around 45%) between 1990
and 2002. This period was marked by high indigenous production of oil and gas in the EU but also by declining hard
Update 2007
60
50
Total
40
Solids
30
20
Oil
10
Gas
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
The Baseline scenario assumes an important development

in energy uses of agricultural residues and some kinds of
crops, which will be collected at a large scale and transformed into biogas or condensed in pellets for direct combustion. This resource will complement wood and wood
waste in a variety of thermal applications and in power and
steam generation. Their production is projected to rise considerably in the Baseline scenario, growing by 7.1% per
year between 2005 and 2030.
FIGURE 84: INCREMENTAL NEEDS FOR FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS

NetImports
%changescomparedto2005
2010
2020
2030
19.9
68.0
65.6
57.9
51.8
23.7
21.0
14.6
5.7
Oil
Gas
Solids
According to the Baseline scenario, the EU incremental

needs for imports are considerable, especially for natural
gas and coal.
75
Energy Costs
The PRIMES model includes a detailed calculation of energy related costs and attributes these costs to the endconsuming sectors. Cost analysis includes expenses for
purchasing energy products, annuity payments corresponding to investment in end-use equipment, operating expenses and spending to improve energy efficiency (e.g.
insulation, etc.). The end-user prices of energy products
are also estimated by the model on the basis of a detailed
cost analysis of supply, which includes import prices of energy products, extraction costs, distribution costs and annuity payments for investment. The determination of end-use
costs takes the view that prices reflect total costs plus profits.
The total energy related costs increase by 1.85% per year,
during 2005-2030. This growth is lower than the GDP
growth, implying that energy costs as a percentage of GDP
decrease in the Baseline scenario.
TABLE 23: ENERGY COST INDICATORS
%
Changes
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
pa (0530)
Total Cost related to

978 1080 1219 1516 1709
Energy in billion '05
as % of GDP
9.73 9.87 9.81 9.66 9.15
Total Unit Cost of
Energy purchased
76.3 80.0 85.0 96.8 104.6
(/MWh)
Tax Revenues
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.4
from Energy as %
Industry (% of
Production Value)
5.26
5.46
5.55
5.84
5.67
0.21
1.37
1.40
1.43
1.58
1.41
0.01
2.58
2.70
2.92
2.92
2.86
0.16
Fuel cost per pkm/tkm travelled (/pkm or /tkm)

Passenger
Freight Transport
1.08
% Diff.
(2005-
Energy-related Expenses by sector in %

Households (% of
Income)
Services &
Agriculture (% of
Production Value)
1.85
0.043 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.038

0.045 0.047 0.048 0.050 0.050
%
Changes
pa (0530)
-0.16
0.21
For end-consumers, the unit energy cost (only for purchasing energy products) increases by 1.08% per year between
2005 and 2030. The increase in import energy prices, as
assumed in the Baseline scenario, explains the rise in the
final energy prices.
The main responsible for this increase is the price of natural gas which rises more than the average energy price.
Most sectors, including power generation and heat/steam
generation, are rather price inelastic with respect to natural
gas. Coal substitution for gas in power generation develops
76
slowly and with some delay, also influenced by the moderate EU ETS carbon price. This implies that gas persists in
power generation (steam and heat) and electricity prices
increase, roughly following the trajectory of gas prices.
The prices of oil products follow the world oil price rise.
However, the increasing penetration of diesel oil and kerosene, which are cheaper, to the detriment of gasoline, as
well as the presence of the excise taxes, imply a slower
pace in price increase in transportation than in other sectors.
The increase in households energy related spending is
projected to exceed the rise of energy prices. This is due to
the fast growing variety of energy using equipment, mostly
electrical, used in a multitude of applications.
The decrease in energy consumption per unit of value
added, in all productive activities, explains the decreasing
trend of unit energy costs. In fact, the important energy
intensity gains in these sectors over-compensate both the
increase in energy prices and the increase in energyrelated equipment.
10 CO2 Emissions Outlook for the EU

The PRIMES model estimates CO2 emissions as derived
from combustion of fossil fuels (coal, lignite, gas, oil). The
estimation uses common emission factors for all Member
States (IPCC default factors) and is called the sectoral
approach because it follows a bottom-up calculation of
emissions based on the combustion of fossil fuels by sectors and activities.
An alternative approach, called the reference approach,
follows a top-down methodology established by UNFCCC
which calculates emissions based on the carbon content of
fossil fuels at the level of Gross Inland Consumption.
The two approaches give slightly different estimates of CO2
emissions and are both reported by the PRIMES model.
Hereinafter the analysis is based on the sectoral approach
because it provides insights on the dependence of emissions on the structure of the energy system.
According to the sectoral approach for accounting emissions, energy combustion emitted 4046.9 Mt CO2 in 1990.
Over one third originated from power generation, 2.7% from
district heating and 3.8% from the rest of the energy supply
industry. End-consumers emitted the remaining 60%, which
is further split equally into 20% by industry, 20% by houses
and other buildings, and 20% by transportation.
The restructuring of the economic and energy system that
took place in Eastern and Central European countries in
the beginning of the 90s, resulted in a substantial reduction
of CO2 emissions which compensated the increased emis-
Update 2007
sions in most of the other EU Member-States. Worth mentioning is also the emission reduction enabled by the penetration of natural gas in power generation and other energy
uses, which replaced coal during 1990-2000. The combination of these changes resulted in a reduction of CO2 emissions in 2000 by 5.6% compared to 1990.
From 2000 onwards, energy combustion related CO2 emissions started to rise. In 2005, the emissions were only 2.5%
below their 1990 level. Emissions originating from transportation have increased continuously since 1990 and accounted for 26.6% of total emissions in 2005. Freight transport and aviation were the main causes of increasing emissions in the transport sector. This increase cancelled out
the reduction of emissions in all other end-use sectors, especially in industry during the period 1990-2005. The part of
emissions from power generation remained constant at
roughly one third of the total by 2005.
The accelerated penetration of renewables, mainly wind,
the natural gas penetration and the further improvement of
energy efficiency contributed to the moderate increase in
CO2 emissions over the past few years.
The Baseline scenario projects a steady increase in the
CO2 emissions from energy combustion by 2030. In 2020,
the emissions will be 5.1% higher compared to 1990 and in
2030 5.4% higher. The CO2 emissions are projected to
grow by 0.31% per year during 2005-2030.
The main driver for the emissions rise is the EU sustained
economic growth, which includes a non declining industrial
component, according to the Baseline scenario. The projected energy efficiency improvement alone (including the
transport sector) is not sufficient to avoid the emissions
growth.
FIGURE 85: CARBON EMISSION INDICATORS
250
GDP
200
150
GrossInland
Consumption
100
CO2
Emmissions
Carbon
Intensityof
Energy
50
Update 2007
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Energy
Intensityof
GDP
TABLE 24: DECOMPOSITION OF CHANGES IN CARBON INTENSITY OF

GDP
Annual Change in %
Carbon Intensity of
GDP
Effect from Energy
Intensity of GDP
Effect from Share of
Fossil Fuels in Gross
Inland Consumption
1990 - 2005 - 1990 - 2000 - 2010 - 2020 2005 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030
-2.15 -1.81 -2.68 -1.67 -1.69 -1.71
-1.36 -1.72 -1.75 -1.32 -1.72 -1.55
-0.33 -0.06 -0.40 -0.16 0.03 -0.11
Effect from Carbon

-0.45 -0.04 -0.53 -0.18 0.00 -0.05
Intensity of Fossil Fuels
The carbon intensity of energy (i.e. CO2 emissions divided

by Gross Inland Consumption), which is projected to decrease at a slower pace during the projection period compared to the past, has a limited contribution to lowering the
emissions level. The carbon intensity of energy decreases
by only 0.1% per year during 2005-2030, down from 0.8%
per year during 1990-2005.
Three factors explain this change of pace: the slowdown in
the penetration of gas, the limited development of nuclear,
and the re-emergence of coal in the long term. These factors offset the effects of continued penetration of renewables on carbon intensity of energy.
The carbon intensity of GDP, expressed as CO2 emissions
per unit of GDP, is projected to decrease by 1.81% per
year during 2005-2030, slightly down from 2.15% per year
in 1990-2005. For the period 2005-2030, this result is almost exclusively due to energy efficiency gains, while in the
past the reduction of carbon intensity of GDP was also due
to the reduction in the carbon intensity of energy (by 33%).
The projected electrification of the final energy consuming
sectors implies lower CO2 emissions just because the
emissions associated with power generation are accounted
for in the power sector and not in the sectors that ultimately
cause them. The final energy demand sectors also perform
important energy efficiency gains in the Baseline scenario
and continue to use natural gas instead of more carbon
intensive fuels.
Consequently, direct CO2 emissions by these sectors,
namely in industry, residential, services and agriculture, are
shown to be stable or to increase at a moderate pace between 2005 and 2020. Direct emissions in industry increase
by 0.33% per year in the period 2005-2030, contrasting
strong decrease during 1990-2005, due to slowdown of
natural gas penetration driven by its loss of competitiveness.
77
FIGURE 86: CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR
11 General Conclusions
5000
4500
Transport
MtCO2
Services
Agriculture
Residential
4000
3500
3000
Industry
2500
2000
The Baseline scenario assumes a steady growth of the EU

economy with a sustained industrial component. It also
assumes relatively high world energy prices compared with
previous projections and similar to reference projections
from other sources 42 , which increase at a moderate pace. It
takes account of policies and measures already in place at
the end of 2006.
Energybranch
1500
District
heating
Power
generation
1000
500
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
CO2 emissions from transportation activity are projected to

increase at 0.73% between 2005 and 2030 (1% between
2005 and 2020), significantly down from 1.75%, observed
between 1990 and 2005. This is due to the deceleration of
activity growth, especially regarding passenger transport,
and the improvement of energy efficiency of transportation
means.
The effects from the penetration of biofuels are small, because of their small share. (The effects of biofuels on overall CO2 are also small because of the energy consumed for
their production).
The power generation sector is subject to a moderate carbon price and faces a continuous deterioration of price
competitiveness of gas vis--vis coal during the projection
period. As a consequence, coal re-emerges in the power
sector in the long term, pushing upwards CO2 emissions.
The CO2 emissions in the power generation sector increased by 0.23% per year between 2005 and 2030 (0.51%
per year between 2005 and 2020). However, the carbon
intensity of power generation decreases by 0.95% per year,
during 2005-2030, as a result of technology progress in
thermal power units and the penetration of renewables.
The share of transport in total CO2 emissions increases
continuously and equals 29.5% in 2030. The share of the
power sector is rather constant attaining 33.3% in 2030.
The share of CO2 emissions from industry goes down to
14.9% in 2030. The domestic sector (residential, services
and agriculture) accounts for 17.4% of total CO2 emissions
in 2030.
The Baseline is essentially a scenario, in which economic

actors minimize costs or maximise utility without taking account of external costs and impacts, such as the effects on
the environment or concerns related to energy supply security. However, it does not freeze progress on energy efficiency or the penetration of new technologies and renewables. On the contrary, energy-efficiency policies and market trends that lead to improvements in energy productivity
do continue into the future under Baseline conditions
The Baseline scenario projects a continuous improvement
of energy technology in all its applications. Further progress
in gas combined cycle technology, the penetration of advanced supercritical coal plants, the widespread use of
efficient electrical appliances, efficient lighting and heat
pumps, as well as the improvements in thermal characteristics of buildings and houses are the main drivers of energy
efficiency gains in the Baseline scenario. Technology improvements combined with saturation effects for a number
of energy uses and for transportation activity, contribute
towards the decoupling of energy demand from economic
growth. The projected decline in energy intensity of GDP
(1.7% per year during 2005-2030) is also due to structural
change towards more services and less energy intensive
industries.
The Baseline scenario projects a persisting dependence on
fossil fuels for the EU energy system. However, it also projects a considerable increase in renewable energy, given
that supporting policies continue in the Baseline at current
levels while technology costs decrease. Wind power and, at
a lesser degree biomass-waste energy, are projected to
attain a sufficient industrial scale in the medium to long
term. Renewables are the fastest growing energy source.
Being clean and indigenous, renewables play an important
role in the Baseline scenario in partly alleviating the adverse effects from the persisting dominance of fossil fuels.
42
This relates to energy projections from the International Energy

Agency (IEA) and US Energy Information Administration.
78
Update 2007
The use of fossil fuels in the EU energy system will become

increasingly specialised. Oil becomes a fuel massively
used in the transport sector and as a petrochemical feedstock. Solid fuels are only used in power generation and in
some specific heavy industry applications. Natural gas continues to be increasingly preferred by end-users, in all sectors except transport, and in small and medium size heat
and CHP applications. Natural gas penetration in power
generation is projected to slow down as a consequence of
its high price relative to coal. Coal re-emerges in power
generation in the long term partly as a replacement fuel for
nuclear and despite a moderate carbon price, which is assumed to prevail in the EU ETS under Baseline conditions
(no further strengthening of climate policies).
The high contribution of the transport sector to the final
energy demand growth is remarkable. It is only in the long
term that the combined effect of transport activity decoupling from economic growth (particularly for passenger
transport) and the technological progress of vehicles might
lead to a deceleration of energy demand growth in transport. Freight transport and aviation are the fastest growing
transport activities.
Electrification, manifested by an expanding use of electricity in all sectors, is projected to continue in the Baseline
scenario. Demand for electricity grows faster than for other
energy forms. This implies a large expansion of power
generation capacity. To meet rising demand and replace
ageing plants, a total capacity of 666.4 GW needs to be
constructed in the EU-27 between 2006 and 2030.
Nuclear power production declines in the Baseline scenario
as a result of current policies in the Member-States and the
incomplete replacement of old plants that are planned to be
decommissioned. However, carbon-free primary energy
forms (renewables and nuclear) are projected to rise as
part of total primary energy consumption.
Update 2007
Under Baseline conditions, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

increase significantly less than GDP and even slightly less
than total energy requirements. However CO2 emissions
remain far higher than implied in emission reduction targets
already agreed or put forward. The considerable energy
intensity reductions and the penetration of renewables,
projected in the Baseline, are not enough to curb CO2
emissions as much as needed to mitigate climate change.
Similarly, the indicative targets on renewables contained in
the RES electricity and biofuels Directives are unlikely to be
attained under Baseline conditions.
Moreover, indigenous EU fossil fuels production is projected to decline considerably over time. With rising EU
energy consumption this leads to strongly increasing import
dependence, which reaches: 66.6% in 2030, up from
52.4% in 2005.
Overall, the Baseline depicts an unsustainable development given CO2 developments and external risks.
In any case, considering the indicative targets set out in
agreed Directives (biofuels, renewables in the internal electricity market), Member-States need to do more compared
with the 2007 Baseline that reflects policy implementation
up to the end of 2006. This holds even more for the follow
up of the ambitious targets for 2020, agreed at the spring
European Council of March 2007 (at least 20% greenhouse
gas reduction, mandatory target of 20% for renewables).
Rapid implementation of adopted legislation by MemberStates (e.g. energy services and eco-design Directives),
adoption of the Directives contained in the energy and climate package of January 2008 and the further development of EU legislation (e.g. from Action Plan for Energy
Efficiency), should allow for a more favourable view to the
future.
79
GLOSSARY
Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Carbon capture and
geological storage is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide as it is emitted from large point sources, compressing
it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is
injected into the ground.
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 emitted per unit of
energy consumed or produced (t of CO2/tonne of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh).
Clean coal units: A number of innovative, new technologies designed to use coal in a more efficient and costeffective manner while enhancing environmental protection.
Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed
combustion (PFBC), integrated gasification combined cycle
(IGCC) and coal gasification.
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 emitted per
unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/M Euro).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a common
energy source to produce both electricity and steam for
other uses, resulting in increased fuel efficiency (see also:
CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A technology which combines gas turbines and steam turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same
plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil)
produces mechanical power, which drives the generator,
and heat in the form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are
fed to a boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a
conventional steam turbine, which is also connected to an
electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open
cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power: This means cogeneration of
useful heat and power (electricity) in a single process. In
contrast to conventional power plants that convert only a
limited part of the primary energy into electricity with the
remainder of this energy being discharged as waste heat.
CHP makes use of large parts of this energy for e.g. industrial processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP
therefore improves energy efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant).
Efficiency for thermal electricity production: A measure
of the efficiency of converting a fuel to electricity and useful
heat; heat and electricity output divided by the calorific
value of input fuel times 100 (for expressing this ratio in
percent).
Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is computed on
the basis of energy use per tonne-km. Given the existence
of inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics,
absolute numbers (especially at the level of individual
80
Member States) might be misleading in some cases. For

that reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the
trends in certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity
related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of transport and energy
statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in refineries, electricity and steam generation and in other transformation processes; it does not include the energy input
for transformation as such.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another
indicator for economic activity.
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, non-ferrous,
chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and paper and pulp industries.
EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS): A scheme for
greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the
Community established by Directive 2003/87/EC in order to
promote reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a costeffective and economically efficient manner. Installations
included in the scheme are combustion plants, oil refineries, coke ovens, iron and steel plants, and factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and paper.
Feed-in tariff: The price per unit of electricity that a utility
or supplier has to pay for renewable electricity.
Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in the
transport, industrial, household, services and agriculture
sectors; the latter two sectors are sometimes aggregated
and named "tertiary". It excludes deliveries to the energy
transformation sector (e.g. power plants) and to the energy
branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above final
demand sectors.
Freight transport activity: Includes energy consuming
transportation of commodities on roads, by rail and by
inland navigation.
Inland navigation: It includes both waterborne inland
transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However, international short sea shipping is not included in the above
category as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances,
energy needs for international shipping are allocated to
bunkers.
Aviation: Aviation activity includes only intra EU air transportation. Energy consumption in aviation reflects sales of
fuels at the point of refuelling, irrespectively of airplane destination.
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen into electricity
Update 2007
and heat with the help of catalysts. The fuel cell provides a
direct current voltage that can be used to power various
electrical devices including motors and lights.
Oil: Includes crude oil, feedstocks, refinery gas, liquefied

petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, naphtha and other petroleum products.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in electricity

and CHP plants.
Peak devices: Gas turbines, internal combustion engines

and other small scale thermal power plants which are usually used to supply electricity in peak hours.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, coke-oven

gas and gasworks gas.
Gas to liquids (GTL): A refinery process to convert natural
gas or other gaseous hydrocarbons into longer-chain hydrocarbons.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of a
generator, prime mover, or other electric power production
equipment under specific conditions designated by the
manufacturer.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover is a
steam turbine, which is driven either by steam produced
from hot water or by natural steam that derives its energy
from heat in rocks or fluids beneath the surface of the
earth. The energy is extracted by drilling and/or pumping.
Gross Inland Consumption (or primary energy consumption): Quantity of energy consumed within the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary production +
recovered products + imports +/- stock changes exports
bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied to international sea-going
ships).
Passenger transport activity: Passenger transport activity

includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads
(public and private), by rail, in airplanes and on ships as far
as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as domestic
sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers.
Primary production: Total indigenous production.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that are
naturally replenishing but flow-limited. They are virtually
inexhaustible in duration but limited in the amount of energy
that is available per unit of time. Renewable energy resources include: biomass, waste energy, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with the use
of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar thermal and
photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar energy into electricity) plants.
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to
GDP (toe/M Euro).
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch and
benzol).
Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with the use

of moving water. In this report, hydro excludes pumped
storage plants that generate electricity during peak load
periods by using water previously pumped into an elevated
storage reservoir during off-peak periods when excess
generating capacity is available. Energy losses in pumping
are accounted for separately.
Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for which

the evaporator part of the boiler operates at pressures
above 22.1 Mega Pascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this
case is a single phase fluid with homogenous properties
and thus there is no need to separate steam from water in
a drum, allowing for higher efficiency in power generation.
Lisbon economic reform process: Ongoing EU action

aiming at making the EU " the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of
sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and
greater social inclusion", as decided by the Heads of State
or Government in the meeting of the European Council in
Lisbon (2000) .
Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy sources.
Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy
carriers in petrochemicals and other sectors, such as
chemical feedstocks, lubricants and asphalt for road construction.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission
chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and sustained at
a specific rate.
Update 2007
Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating station

in which the source of energy for the prime mover is heat
(nuclear power plants are excluded).
Useful energy: The portion of final energy which is actually
available after final conversion to the consumer for the respective use. In final conversion, electricity becomes for
instance light, mechanical energy or heat.
Windfall profit: An unexpected profit received by the profiting party without any particular performance.
Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines supplying electricity directly to a consumer or interconnected to
a common transmission or distribution system. Offshore
wind includes windmills located at sea (coastal wind mills
are usually included in onshore wind).
81
APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Update 2007
83
APPENDIX 1
EU-27: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions

Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
470.4
2.7
176.1
480.5
2.5
194.9
492.9
2.3
213.9
496.4
2.2
226.2
494.8
2.1
235.1
0.2
-0.8
1.0
0.3
-0.7
0.9
0.1
-0.5
0.6
0.0
-0.4
0.4
8108.7
4730.7
7386.7
1579.7
53.5
20.0
151.3
51.7
78.5
146.2
96.9
203.9
122.2
621.4
182.6
469.9
4806.1
241.5
10046.1
5865.9
9081.2
1842.6
50.5
24.7
198.9
82.4
87.1
166.8
111.7
219.8
103.5
792.9
198.3
481.6
6176.2
268.7
12430.0
7270.0
11252.3
2195.1
57.7
27.4
264.8
123.0
98.5
176.1
121.2
264.9
84.2
984.8
236.6
573.8
7843.6
288.7
15686.9
9035.6
14213.3
2760.9
67.4
33.1
343.0
172.0
120.5
216.6
152.3
341.0
84.1
1251.0
304.3
717.5
10003.2
331.8
18687.0
10698.0
16897.9
3261.1
74.4
37.7
412.1
218.8
138.3
253.2
181.3
410.4
86.4
1483.7
365.0
832.5
12000.7
366.9
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.6
-0.6
2.1
2.8
4.8
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.8
-1.7
2.5
0.8
0.2
2.5
1.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.3
1.1
2.9
4.1
1.2
0.5
0.8
1.9
-2.0
2.2
1.8
1.8
2.4
0.7
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.3
1.6
1.9
2.6
3.4
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.6
0.0
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.5
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.0
1.3
1.9
2.4
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.9
0.3
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.0
21.4
0.7
0.3
2.0
0.7
1.1
2.0
1.3
2.8
1.7
8.4
2.5
6.4
65.1
3.3
20.3
0.6
0.3
2.2
0.9
1.0
1.8
1.2
2.4
1.1
8.7
2.2
5.3
68.0
3.0
19.5
0.5
0.2
2.4
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.1
2.4
0.7
8.8
2.1
5.1
69.7
2.6
19.4
0.5
0.2
2.4
1.2
0.8
1.5
1.1
2.4
0.6
8.8
2.1
5.0
70.4
2.3
19.3
0.4
0.2
2.4
1.3
0.8
1.5
1.1
2.4
0.5
8.8
2.2
4.9
71.0
2.2
289.5
312.0
351.2
399.8
436.7
0.8
1.2
1.3
0.9
3.9
3.4
3.1
2.8
2.6
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
EU15: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
363.5
2.6
140.3
375.5
2.4
155.9
390.8
2.3
172.4
397.5
2.2
184.3
398.7
2.1
192.9
0.3
-0.7
1.1
0.4
-0.6
1.0
0.2
-0.5
0.7
0.0
-0.4
0.5
7631.5
4462.0
6958.5
1470.6
47.2
18.8
142.6
50.0
72.2
139.8
94.0
183.9
108.6
588.7
168.9
440.5
4595.3
196.0
9503.7
5538.5
8602.6
1721.7
45.7
23.0
190.7
78.9
79.9
159.1
106.8
194.7
93.3
752.6
182.7
453.6
5908.1
234.0
11598.2
6711.9
10523.1
1995.4
51.7
25.3
252.4
117.2
88.1
165.0
114.2
227.4
72.7
907.1
205.6
534.0
7441.9
236.5
14402.8
8178.0
13094.4
2453.1
59.5
30.3
322.7
161.4
104.6
199.3
140.6
280.8
70.0
1130.3
255.6
651.6
9374.0
260.9
16891.5
9487.1
15338.0
2846.6
65.0
34.4
382.2
201.6
117.1
229.6
164.7
327.3
69.6
1322.8
298.7
738.9
11093.1
277.5
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.6
-0.3
2.0
2.9
4.7
1.0
1.3
1.3
0.6
-1.5
2.5
0.8
0.3
2.5
1.8
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.2
0.9
2.8
4.0
1.0
0.4
0.7
1.6
-2.5
1.9
1.2
1.6
2.3
0.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.4
1.8
2.5
3.3
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
-0.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.3
1.0
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.5
-0.1
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.7
0.6
21.1
0.7
0.3
2.0
0.7
1.0
2.0
1.4
2.6
1.6
8.5
2.4
6.3
66.0
2.8
20.0
0.5
0.3
2.2
0.9
0.9
1.8
1.2
2.3
1.1
8.7
2.1
5.3
68.7
2.7
19.0
0.5
0.2
2.4
1.1
0.8
1.6
1.1
2.2
0.7
8.6
2.0
5.1
70.7
2.2
18.7
0.5
0.2
2.5
1.2
0.8
1.5
1.1
2.1
0.5
8.6
2.0
5.0
71.6
2.0
18.6
0.4
0.2
2.5
1.3
0.8
1.5
1.1
2.1
0.5
8.6
1.9
4.8
72.3
1.8
256.0
285.2
315.4
354.8
381.9
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.7
3.7
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.5
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
NM-12: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

106.9
3.0
35.9
105.0
2.7
39.0
102.2
2.5
41.5
99.0
2.4
42.0
96.0
2.3
42.3
-0.2
-1.0
0.8
-0.3
-0.9
0.6
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
0.1

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
477.2
268.7
428.2
109.1
6.3
1.2
8.7
1.7
6.3
6.5
2.9
20.0
13.6
32.7
13.7
29.5
210.8
45.4
542.4
327.5
478.6
120.9
4.8
1.7
8.2
3.5
7.2
7.7
4.8
25.1
10.2
40.3
15.6
28.1
268.1
34.8
831.8
558.1
729.2
199.7
6.0
2.2
12.4
5.8
10.4
11.1
7.0
37.4
11.5
77.8
31.0
39.8
401.7
52.2
1284.1
857.7
1118.9
307.9
7.8
2.8
20.3
10.6
16.0
17.3
11.7
60.1
14.1
120.7
48.7
65.9
629.2
70.9
1795.5
1210.9
1559.9
414.6
9.4
3.3
29.9
17.2
21.2
23.6
16.6
83.2
16.8
160.9
66.3
93.6
907.6
89.4
1.3
2.0
1.1
1.0
-2.8
3.3
-0.6
7.5
1.5
1.7
5.3
2.3
-2.9
2.1
1.3
-0.5
2.4
-2.6
4.4
5.5
4.3
5.1
2.3
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.1
1.2
6.8
7.1
3.6
4.1
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.7
2.5
5.1
6.2
4.4
4.6
5.3
4.9
2.1
4.5
4.6
5.2
4.6
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.0
1.8
1.8
3.9
4.9
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.3
1.7
2.9
3.1
3.6
3.7
2.3
25.5
1.5
0.3
2.0
0.4
1.5
1.5
0.7
4.7
3.2
7.6
3.2
6.9
49.2
10.6
25.3
1.0
0.4
1.7
0.7
1.5
1.6
1.0
5.2
2.1
8.4
3.3
5.9
56.0
7.3
27.4
0.8
0.3
1.7
0.8
1.4
1.5
1.0
5.1
1.6
10.7
4.3
5.5
55.1
7.2
27.5
0.7
0.2
1.8
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.0
5.4
1.3
10.8
4.4
5.9
56.2
6.3
26.6
0.6
0.2
1.9
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.1
5.3
1.1
10.3
4.3
6.0
58.2
5.7
33.4
26.8
35.8
45.0
54.8
-2.2
2.9
2.3
2.0
7.8
5.6
4.9
4.0
3.5
Energy sector
Source: PRIMES
84
Update 2007
APPENDIX 1
AUSTRIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
7.6
2.6
3.0
8.0
2.5
3.2
8.3
2.4
3.5
8.4
2.3
3.7
8.5
2.2
3.9
0.5
-0.3
0.8
0.4
-0.5
0.9
0.2
-0.4
0.6
0.1
-0.4
0.4
177.3
101.5
158.5
32.0
1.5
0.5
1.8
0.6
2.5
2.9
1.5
3.5
2.5
12.0
4.7
11.3
104.9
4.7
228.1
125.4
205.2
41.6
1.8
0.8
2.7
1.2
2.5
4.2
2.2
4.8
2.0
16.3
6.5
15.4
135.2
5.3
277.3
149.8
250.5
51.8
2.2
0.8
3.6
1.6
2.7
4.8
2.7
5.9
1.7
22.5
7.5
17.7
166.0
5.3
335.2
179.7
303.8
63.2
2.7
0.9
4.8
2.4
3.2
5.6
3.2
7.1
1.7
28.0
9.2
20.8
202.5
5.8
386.5
206.0
351.0
73.2
2.9
1.1
5.8
3.0
3.6
6.2
3.7
8.2
1.7
33.4
10.4
23.9
234.7
6.2
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.7
1.9
3.9
4.1
7.9
0.1
3.8
3.6
3.2
-1.9
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.6
1.2
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
-0.1
3.0
3.1
0.8
1.2
2.1
2.0
-1.6
3.3
1.5
1.4
2.1
0.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.9
3.7
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.9
-0.3
2.2
2.0
1.6
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
0.8
1.5
1.9
2.6
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.4
-0.1
1.8
1.3
1.4
1.5
0.7
20.2
0.9
0.3
1.1
0.4
1.6
1.8
1.0
2.2
1.6
7.6
3.0
7.1
66.2
3.0
20.3
0.9
0.4
1.3
0.6
1.2
2.1
1.1
2.4
1.0
7.9
3.2
7.5
65.9
2.6
20.7
0.9
0.3
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.9
1.1
2.4
0.7
9.0
3.0
7.1
66.3
2.1
20.8
0.9
0.3
1.6
0.8
1.1
1.8
1.1
2.4
0.6
9.2
3.0
6.8
66.7
1.9
20.8
0.8
0.3
1.7
0.9
1.0
1.8
1.1
2.3
0.5
9.5
3.0
6.8
66.9
1.8
5.6
7.7
9.7
11.5
13.1
3.3
2.4
1.7
1.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.7
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
BELGIUM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
9.9
2.6
3.9
10.2
2.4
4.2
10.6
2.3
4.6
10.8
2.2
5.0
11.0
2.1
5.3
0.3
-0.6
0.9
0.3
-0.6
0.9
0.2
-0.5
0.7
0.2
-0.4
0.6
220.3
118.9
207.0
43.3
3.9
1.2
6.7
2.2
2.3
3.2
1.4
5.6
2.9
14.0
3.5
11.0
142.3
2.7
277.7
147.6
246.1
50.7
2.9
1.1
10.5
3.8
2.3
3.7
2.4
5.5
2.9
17.7
4.1
12.3
170.8
3.7
335.9
173.7
295.7
56.2
2.9
0.9
12.2
5.6
2.6
4.2
2.7
6.3
2.4
19.3
5.3
14.1
212.5
4.1
409.2
207.1
358.6
66.0
3.1
1.0
15.0
7.6
3.0
5.0
3.3
7.3
2.3
23.0
6.2
16.3
262.3
4.5
477.7
238.3
416.8
75.9
3.2
1.1
18.0
10.2
3.3
5.7
3.9
8.2
2.3
26.9
7.2
18.3
307.8
4.6
2.3
2.2
1.7
1.6
-3.0
-0.4
4.6
5.4
0.1
1.4
5.3
-0.2
-0.1
2.4
1.5
1.1
1.8
3.1
1.9
1.6
1.9
1.0
0.2
-1.8
1.5
3.9
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
-2.0
0.9
2.6
1.4
2.2
1.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.6
0.6
0.8
2.1
3.2
1.5
1.8
1.9
1.5
-0.4
1.8
1.7
1.4
2.1
0.8
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
0.3
0.5
1.8
2.9
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.2
0.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.6
0.3
20.9
1.9
0.6
3.3
1.1
1.1
1.5
0.7
2.7
1.4
6.8
1.7
5.3
68.7
1.3
20.6
1.2
0.5
4.3
1.5
0.9
1.5
1.0
2.2
1.2
7.2
1.7
5.0
69.4
1.5
19.0
1.0
0.3
4.1
1.9
0.9
1.4
0.9
2.1
0.8
6.5
1.8
4.8
71.9
1.4
18.4
0.9
0.3
4.2
2.1
0.8
1.4
0.9
2.0
0.6
6.4
1.7
4.5
73.1
1.3
18.2
0.8
0.3
4.3
2.4
0.8
1.4
0.9
2.0
0.5
6.4
1.7
4.4
73.9
1.1
7.6
8.7
8.7
9.5
10.2
1.3
0.1
0.9
0.7
3.7
3.5
2.9
2.7
2.4
BULGARIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
8.8
2.9
3.1
8.2
2.6
3.1
7.5
2.3
3.2
6.8
2.1
3.2
6.2
1.9
3.2
-0.7
-0.9
0.2
-0.9
-1.2
0.3
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.1
20.1
14.0
22.6
5.1
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.9
2.0
0.6
8.8
6.8
16.9
12.5
15.3
2.8
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.6
8.3
1.9
27.9
21.2
25.0
4.9
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.9
1.2
0.4
0.8
14.4
2.2
49.3
36.6
44.4
9.4
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.6
1.6
2.5
0.8
1.6
25.9
3.1
84.9
61.7
75.8
17.1
0.9
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.0
0.8
3.0
2.5
5.2
1.7
2.8
44.7
4.2
-1.7
-1.1
-3.8
-5.8
-6.3
-11.0
-5.1
7.2
-0.5
1.1
6.3
4.2
10.0
-3.7
-21.5
0.3
-0.6
-11.9
5.2
5.4
5.0
5.7
3.3
6.4
-1.1
0.1
11.9
8.0
8.0
3.4
8.1
6.2
8.7
2.7
5.6
1.4
5.8
5.6
5.9
6.7
5.7
4.0
7.1
9.1
6.2
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.6
8.0
7.0
6.8
6.1
3.5
5.6
5.4
5.5
6.2
4.3
2.9
7.2
8.6
5.0
5.9
6.5
6.1
4.4
7.5
7.9
6.1
5.6
3.1
22.6
2.2
0.9
2.7
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.2
1.8
0.7
4.2
8.9
2.7
39.0
30.3
18.3
1.7
0.4
2.3
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
4.0
2.8
4.2
1.2
4.1
54.2
12.5
19.5
1.4
0.5
1.3
0.7
1.7
1.2
0.8
3.4
3.7
4.7
1.7
3.3
57.7
8.8
21.1
1.4
0.4
1.4
1.0
1.8
1.3
1.0
3.7
3.6
5.7
1.8
3.5
58.4
7.0
22.6
1.2
0.3
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.3
1.1
3.9
3.2
6.9
2.3
3.7
58.9
5.6
1.2
1.7
2.7
4.4
7.0
3.1
4.8
5.2
4.6
5.5
10.9
10.7
10.0
9.2
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
85
APPENDIX 1
CYPRUS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

0.6
4.6
0.1
0.7
4.7
0.1
0.8
4.5
0.2
0.9
4.5
0.2
0.9
4.6
0.2
1.9
0.1
1.8
1.4
-0.4
1.8
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.6
0.2
0.4

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
7.5
4.3
6.8
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.8
4.4
0.4
11.7
7.7
10.6
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
8.2
0.4
16.4
11.1
14.9
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.1
11.8
0.4
23.4
16.0
21.3
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.2
1.6
17.2
0.5
30.0
20.2
27.4
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.4
0.3
1.9
22.3
0.6
4.6
6.0
4.6
1.1
3.4
3.7
3.5
1.5
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.4
5.5
7.1
-1.5
29.8
40.8
4.6
-8.7
-0.1
0.5
-1.0
6.3
0.3
-0.2
-1.6
5.0
0.6
0.5
1.9
-6.0
3.1
0.3
4.9
3.7
0.0
2.7
3.6
2.9
2.2
2.5
3.1
-1.1
4.4
2.8
3.4
3.9
1.3
Energy sector
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2.2
3.7
1.9
2.2
2.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
2.6
-0.1
3.2
2.8
2.0
2.6
1.4
13.5
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.4
2.0
0.1
0.0
3.0
2.9
2.2
2.6
11.2
65.7
6.1
9.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.7
3.1
0.8
1.4
1.7
6.5
77.2
4.0
7.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
1.3
0.7
0.5
2.6
0.3
1.4
1.3
7.5
78.9
2.8
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
1.2
0.6
0.4
2.5
0.2
1.5
1.2
7.3
80.6
2.2
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.4
2.5
0.1
1.6
1.2
6.9
81.5
2.0
1.5
3.5
2.8
2.9
2.4
2.2
CZECH REPUBLIC: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

10.4
2.9
3.6
10.3
2.6
3.9
10.1
2.4
4.2
9.9
2.3
4.2
9.7
2.3
4.3
-0.1
-0.9
0.8
-0.1
-0.7
0.6
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.0

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
81.3
40.7
66.2
19.8
1.0
0.1
1.6
0.2
1.3
2.3
0.9
2.7
3.2
5.0
2.6
7.4
28.0
2.1
83.4
45.1
74.7
22.0
1.0
0.2
1.2
0.3
1.7
1.5
0.8
3.0
1.2
9.1
3.1
3.7
41.5
3.4
124.6
66.1
111.5
37.0
1.0
0.2
2.0
0.7
2.7
1.8
1.1
3.1
1.3
18.9
6.0
4.6
60.9
4.4
178.2
94.9
158.4
51.4
1.2
0.2
3.1
1.3
3.7
2.6
1.7
4.3
1.5
26.5
8.3
6.8
89.3
5.6
227.0
120.1
200.9
64.5
1.3
0.2
4.4
1.9
4.5
3.4
2.3
5.6
1.6
33.1
10.5
8.7
115.3
6.4
0.3
1.0
1.2
1.1
0.7
11.3
-3.3
2.5
3.0
-4.4
-1.4
0.9
-9.1
6.1
1.6
-6.8
4.0
4.9
4.1
3.9
4.1
5.3
-0.3
-3.6
5.6
9.3
4.7
2.2
3.7
0.3
0.9
7.6
6.8
2.4
3.9
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.3
1.6
0.8
4.6
5.6
3.0
3.5
4.4
3.5
1.1
3.4
3.4
3.9
3.9
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
1.2
0.3
3.4
4.4
2.1
2.8
3.3
2.5
0.8
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.6
1.4
29.9
1.5
0.1
2.4
0.4
1.9
3.5
1.3
4.1
4.8
7.6
4.0
11.2
42.3
3.2
29.5
1.4
0.3
1.5
0.4
2.3
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.6
12.2
4.1
4.9
55.6
4.5
33.2
0.9
0.1
1.8
0.6
2.5
1.6
1.0
2.8
1.2
17.0
5.3
4.1
54.6
4.0
32.4
0.7
0.1
2.0
0.8
2.3
1.6
1.1
2.7
0.9
16.7
5.2
4.3
56.4
3.5
32.1
0.7
0.1
2.2
1.0
2.2
1.7
1.2
2.8
0.8
16.5
5.2
4.3
57.4
3.2
8.9
4.1
4.6
5.3
6.0
-7.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
13.4
5.5
4.1
3.4
3.0
Energy sector
DENMARK: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
5.1
2.3
2.2
5.3
2.2
2.4
5.5
2.1
2.6
5.5
2.0
2.8
5.6
1.9
2.9
0.4
-0.4
0.7
0.2
-0.6
0.8
0.1
-0.5
0.7
0.1
-0.4
0.5
150.8
77.2
130.5
22.4
0.3
0.1
1.7
1.0
1.2
2.7
1.8
4.6
0.9
7.8
3.2
7.2
93.4
3.7
194.8
93.1
168.9
27.0
0.4
0.1
3.8
2.7
1.3
2.9
2.3
4.3
0.8
9.8
3.5
8.2
121.7
5.7
234.9
115.5
201.8
29.0
0.2
0.1
5.0
3.7
1.2
2.6
2.0
4.6
0.4
11.3
3.5
9.4
148.9
7.3
281.3
135.5
241.3
34.1
0.2
0.1
6.2
4.6
1.4
3.1
2.4
5.5
0.4
13.3
4.1
11.3
179.3
8.4
321.3
153.0
275.2
38.6
0.2
0.1
7.1
5.3
1.5
3.5
2.7
6.3
0.4
15.0
4.5
12.8
206.2
8.8
2.6
1.9
2.6
1.9
2.0
3.4
8.7
10.4
1.2
1.0
2.8
-0.8
-1.6
2.3
1.0
1.2
2.7
4.3
1.9
2.2
1.8
0.7
-6.8
-1.6
2.7
3.1
-1.2
-1.1
-1.3
0.8
-5.8
1.5
-0.1
1.4
2.0
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.6
-0.3
0.9
2.1
2.2
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
-1.1
1.6
1.5
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
-0.2
0.5
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
-0.3
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.5
17.2
0.2
0.1
1.3
0.8
0.9
2.0
1.3
3.5
0.7
6.0
2.4
5.5
71.6
2.9
16.0
0.2
0.1
2.3
1.6
0.8
1.7
1.4
2.5
0.5
5.8
2.1
4.9
72.0
3.4
14.4
0.1
0.1
2.5
1.8
0.6
1.3
1.0
2.3
0.2
5.6
1.7
4.7
73.8
3.6
14.1
0.1
0.1
2.6
1.9
0.6
1.3
1.0
2.3
0.2
5.5
1.7
4.7
74.3
3.5
14.0
0.1
0.1
2.6
1.9
0.6
1.3
1.0
2.3
0.1
5.4
1.6
4.6
75.0
3.2
3.8
6.4
7.2
8.1
8.7
5.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
2.9
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
Source: PRIMES
86
Update 2007
APPENDIX 1
ESTONIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

1.6
2.6
0.6
1.4
2.4
0.6
1.3
2.1
0.6
1.2
1.9
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.7
-1.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.4
-1.6
1.2
-0.5
-1.0
0.5
-0.4
-1.2
0.9

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
8.1
4.4
7.2
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.2
3.3
1.3
7.4
4.2
6.6
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
4.2
0.4
16.2
8.9
14.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
9.2
0.4
23.6
12.7
20.9
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.5
1.4
1.3
1.7
13.5
0.4
29.9
15.9
26.5
6.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.6
1.8
1.6
2.1
17.3
0.5
-0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-3.4
8.1
7.8
8.1
9.9
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.8
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
3.8
10.6
9.0
10.0
8.5
-5.7
-11.7
4.0
-3.3
6.8
2.4
-11.7
10.7
35.7
11.6
8.6
9.9
4.4
6.5
11.5
12.7
8.4
8.2
0.5
1.6
7.0
11.4
4.1
3.0
3.1
4.9
3.0
3.9
3.2
4.9
3.9
1.2
Energy sector
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-6.2
4.5
2.2
2010
2020
1.0
3.9
5.4
2.1
2.2
2.4
3.6
2.0
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
0.9
25.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
5.7
9.4
3.1
5.8
3.3
46.2
17.6
19.6
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
1.3
1.6
1.2
3.4
3.0
4.9
4.5
7.0
63.8
5.5
23.1
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.3
1.8
1.7
1.4
2.4
2.5
6.7
6.8
7.1
64.2
2.6
23.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.6
1.9
1.6
1.3
2.7
2.3
6.8
6.3
7.9
64.5
2.0
23.2
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.8
1.8
1.5
1.3
3.0
2.2
6.7
6.2
7.8
65.1
1.8
0.7
7.2
4.1
3.0
2.5
2.1
FINLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
5.0
2.5
2.0
5.2
2.3
2.3
5.3
2.1
2.5
5.4
2.0
2.7
5.4
1.9
2.9
0.4
-0.8
1.2
0.2
-0.8
1.0
0.2
-0.7
0.9
0.1
-0.6
0.7
114.5
60.1
98.8
21.6
0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
5.8
2.4
2.3
0.9
6.6
2.7
7.2
62.3
4.8
139.1
67.6
122.4
36.4
1.3
0.5
2.0
0.5
0.9
7.8
1.8
2.6
0.6
17.1
3.7
5.4
72.7
4.3
183.2
90.3
160.6
52.0
1.8
0.4
2.4
0.6
1.3
8.4
2.9
4.2
0.5
29.4
3.8
6.3
93.1
4.4
221.3
106.1
194.4
63.1
2.1
0.5
2.6
0.7
1.5
9.9
3.6
5.1
0.5
36.8
4.1
7.3
113.7
4.8
254.9
120.5
224.3
71.5
2.3
0.5
2.6
0.7
1.6
11.1
4.0
5.9
0.5
42.6
4.3
8.1
133.6
4.9
2.0
1.2
2.2
5.4
5.9
4.4
3.6
4.0
0.0
3.0
-3.1
1.3
-4.1
10.1
3.2
-2.7
1.6
-1.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.6
3.8
-1.7
1.8
1.6
3.7
0.8
5.2
4.7
-2.2
5.5
0.3
1.5
2.5
0.2
1.9
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.2
-0.8
2.3
0.8
1.5
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.3
0.8
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.4
-0.2
1.5
0.7
1.1
1.6
0.3
21.9
0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.9
5.9
2.4
2.3
1.0
6.7
2.7
7.2
63.0
4.9
29.8
1.0
0.4
1.6
0.4
0.7
6.4
1.4
2.1
0.5
14.0
3.0
4.4
59.4
3.5
32.4
1.1
0.3
1.5
0.4
0.8
5.2
1.8
2.6
0.3
18.3
2.3
3.9
58.0
2.7
32.4
1.1
0.2
1.3
0.3
0.8
5.1
1.8
2.6
0.2
18.9
2.1
3.8
58.5
2.5
31.9
1.0
0.2
1.2
0.3
0.7
5.0
1.8
2.6
0.2
19.0
1.9
3.6
59.6
2.2
3.0
3.5
4.8
5.6
6.1
1.8
3.1
1.6
0.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
2010
2020
FRANCE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
56.6
2.6
21.8
58.8
2.4
24.7
61.7
2.3
27.4
63.6
2.2
29.3
65.1
2.1
31.3
0.4
-0.8
1.2
0.5
-0.6
1.1
0.3
-0.4
0.7
0.2
-0.4
0.7
1301.2
750.1
1160.0
206.3
7.0
2.7
22.3
9.4
8.8
19.4
12.2
30.9
14.3
79.2
21.9
68.7
814.8
37.6
1587.9
889.8
1419.5
242.5
7.2
3.5
24.3
13.6
9.7
20.5
14.1
31.9
11.4
108.4
25.7
70.6
1020.0
46.9
1922.2
1094.0
1716.4
289.7
7.1
3.5
33.1
21.3
10.3
21.6
15.3
36.9
9.5
131.5
36.4
79.0
1249.3
44.0
2434.9
1327.7
2172.3
368.4
7.9
4.1
43.4
29.5
11.8
26.4
19.5
45.4
9.4
171.5
48.4
95.4
1593.7
47.1
2906.3
1544.4
2591.6
439.9
8.5
4.8
52.8
37.0
12.9
30.1
22.6
52.4
9.4
210.6
58.3
109.2
1917.0
49.6
2.0
1.7
2.0
1.6
0.3
2.5
0.9
3.8
1.0
0.5
1.4
0.3
-2.2
3.2
1.6
0.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.8
-0.1
0.1
3.1
4.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.5
-1.8
2.0
3.5
1.1
2.0
-0.6
2.4
2.0
2.4
2.4
1.0
1.7
2.8
3.3
1.4
2.1
2.4
2.1
-0.1
2.7
2.9
1.9
2.5
0.7
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.8
0.8
1.5
2.0
2.3
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.4
0.0
2.1
1.9
1.4
1.9
0.5
17.8
0.6
0.2
1.9
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.1
2.7
1.2
6.8
1.9
5.9
70.2
3.2
17.1
0.5
0.2
1.7
1.0
0.7
1.4
1.0
2.2
0.8
7.6
1.8
5.0
71.9
3.3
16.9
0.4
0.2
1.9
1.2
0.6
1.3
0.9
2.1
0.6
7.7
2.1
4.6
72.8
2.6
17.0
0.4
0.2
2.0
1.4
0.5
1.2
0.9
2.1
0.4
7.9
2.2
4.4
73.4
2.2
17.0
0.3
0.2
2.0
1.4
0.5
1.2
0.9
2.0
0.4
8.1
2.2
4.2
74.0
1.9
32.6
39.6
54.3
67.8
76.0
2.0
3.2
2.3
1.1
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.1
2.9
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
87
APPENDIX 1
GERMANY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
79.1
2.4
33.7
82.2
2.2
36.7
82.6
2.1
38.9
82.7
2.1
39.6
81.1
2.0
39.8
0.4
-0.5
0.9
0.1
-0.5
0.6
0.0
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
1824.8
1029.9
1648.4
408.5
11.8
4.5
38.4
9.5
15.7
31.1
21.7
38.5
16.7
199.1
52.7
106.7
1049.3
22.8
2170.7
1239.9
1979.1
447.3
11.8
6.6
47.6
14.3
18.8
33.9
23.3
38.9
10.4
235.7
43.6
103.7
1349.0
25.7
2470.6
1366.6
2284.1
535.2
13.1
8.0
63.9
24.8
18.2
31.3
20.7
39.9
8.6
305.5
46.5
82.7
1579.4
29.8
2927.4
1591.4
2737.4
637.6
15.2
9.6
77.7
33.8
20.6
36.4
24.8
47.2
8.2
367.3
55.5
96.7
1907.6
33.9
3277.3
1774.7
3084.7
720.9
17.0
10.7
88.6
42.0
22.6
41.0
28.9
53.9
8.0
416.0
63.0
105.0
2158.2
35.6
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.9
0.1
3.9
2.2
4.2
1.8
0.9
0.7
0.1
-4.7
1.7
-1.9
-0.3
2.5
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.8
1.0
2.0
3.0
5.7
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
0.3
-1.8
2.6
0.6
-2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.8
2.0
3.1
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.7
-0.6
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.2
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.3
-0.2
1.3
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.5
24.8
0.7
0.3
2.3
0.6
1.0
1.9
1.3
2.3
1.0
12.1
3.2
6.5
63.7
1.4
22.6
0.6
0.3
2.4
0.7
0.9
1.7
1.2
2.0
0.5
11.9
2.2
5.2
68.2
1.3
23.4
0.6
0.4
2.8
1.1
0.8
1.4
0.9
1.7
0.4
13.4
2.0
3.6
69.1
1.3
23.3
0.6
0.3
2.8
1.2
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.7
0.3
13.4
2.0
3.5
69.7
1.2
23.4
0.6
0.3
2.9
1.4
0.7
1.3
0.9
1.7
0.3
13.5
2.0
3.4
70.0
1.2
61.1
53.4
56.9
61.6
64.9
-1.3
0.6
0.8
0.5
3.7
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
GREECE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
10.1
3.0
3.3
10.9
2.8
3.9
11.2
2.7
4.1
11.4
2.6
4.3
11.3
2.6
4.4
0.7
-0.7
1.5
0.3
-0.4
0.7
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
115.8
82.2
110.0
15.2
0.3
0.9
1.4
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.1
3.2
4.1
1.6
1.7
7.2
71.3
11.4
146.0
102.5
132.8
15.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.9
3.5
3.4
2.6
1.9
9.1
91.9
11.1
215.3
145.2
190.5
20.0
0.7
0.7
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.3
4.9
3.8
3.3
2.3
14.0
139.9
10.2
284.2
187.4
247.2
24.8
0.9
0.9
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
6.6
3.8
4.3
2.9
18.3
186.1
11.1
341.2
222.4
294.2
27.9
1.0
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.8
7.5
3.7
5.2
3.3
21.1
225.9
12.1
2.3
2.2
1.9
0.1
1.9
-3.1
-3.3
1.6
3.3
-2.7
-2.7
0.9
-2.1
5.1
1.5
2.4
2.6
-0.3
4.0
3.5
3.7
2.6
7.4
0.6
4.4
6.1
1.2
3.9
4.1
3.6
1.3
2.5
1.8
4.4
4.3
-0.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.3
2.2
3.1
3.7
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.9
0.0
2.8
2.1
2.7
2.9
0.8
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.8
2.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.4
-0.4
1.8
1.5
1.4
2.0
0.8
13.8
0.3
0.8
1.3
0.4
0.7
1.1
1.0
2.9
3.8
1.4
1.5
6.5
64.8
10.4
11.6
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.9
0.7
0.6
2.6
2.5
1.9
1.5
6.8
69.2
8.4
10.5
0.4
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
2.6
2.0
1.7
1.2
7.3
73.4
5.4
10.0
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
2.7
1.6
1.7
1.2
7.4
75.3
4.5
9.5
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.6
1.3
1.8
1.1
7.2
76.8
4.1
4.9
5.3
6.4
7.0
7.3
0.8
2.0
0.8
0.4
4.4
4.0
3.4
2.8
2.5
HUNGARY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

10.4
2.6
4.0
10.2
2.4
4.3
10.0
2.2
4.5
9.7
2.1
4.6
9.5
2.0
4.6
-0.1
-1.0
0.9
-0.3
-0.7
0.4
-0.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.1

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
64.1
34.9
56.8
11.1
0.4
0.2
1.0
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
1.9
1.7
3.7
1.4
2.4
36.2
5.0
71.8
35.9
62.1
16.3
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.6
1.6
0.9
9.7
1.2
3.0
36.6
4.1
104.8
57.5
89.4
23.0
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.6
16.0
1.9
4.6
52.4
7.7
147.4
80.3
124.4
30.4
0.4
0.5
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.5
1.1
1.5
0.6
21.5
2.4
7.7
73.8
10.3
191.6
103.6
160.6
37.7
0.5
0.7
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.9
1.4
1.9
0.6
26.7
3.0
10.2
97.2
12.5
1.1
0.3
0.9
3.9
-4.6
3.4
-3.4
3.8
1.6
10.1
12.5
-1.8
-5.9
10.2
-0.8
2.3
0.1
-1.9
3.8
4.8
3.7
3.5
2.2
2.1
1.7
4.3
-0.6
2.7
3.2
-3.2
-4.2
5.1
4.1
4.2
3.6
6.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.2
3.1
3.1
3.8
2.7
2.8
3.3
2.7
-0.6
3.0
2.7
5.2
3.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.2
1.8
2.4
2.4
2.9
2.3
2.4
2.8
2.3
0.1
2.2
2.0
2.9
2.8
2.0
19.6
0.7
0.4
1.8
0.5
1.0
0.6
0.3
3.3
2.9
6.5
2.4
4.3
63.7
8.8
26.2
0.4
0.5
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.9
2.5
1.5
15.7
2.0
4.9
59.0
6.7
25.7
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.7
0.7
1.3
0.9
1.3
0.7
17.9
2.1
5.2
58.7
8.7
24.5
0.3
0.4
1.0
0.7
0.6
1.2
0.9
1.2
0.5
17.3
2.0
6.2
59.3
8.3
23.5
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.8
0.6
1.2
0.9
1.2
0.4
16.6
1.8
6.4
60.5
7.8
2.0
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.9
0.0
-2.2
3.2
2.8
3.6
3.3
1.8
1.8
1.8
Energy sector
Source: PRIMES
88
Update 2007
APPENDIX 1
IRELAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
3.5
3.4
1.0
3.8
3.0
1.3
4.4
2.8
1.5
4.8
2.7
1.8
5.1
2.4
2.1
0.7
-1.3
2.1
1.5
-0.6
2.0
0.9
-0.7
1.6
0.6
-0.8
1.5
62.0
36.2
57.1
19.5
0.1
0.1
3.2
0.7
0.7
1.7
1.4
6.2
0.8
5.4
1.4
3.0
29.4
3.6
125.1
61.2
110.1
39.6
0.1
0.1
14.4
3.4
0.9
4.7
4.3
5.4
0.4
11.9
1.7
6.3
57.2
5.3
203.3
89.4
176.9
66.1
0.0
0.1
23.1
5.5
1.3
8.6
8.1
14.4
0.3
15.6
2.5
10.5
93.8
4.7
286.2
120.1
247.2
93.0
0.0
0.2
32.7
8.3
1.7
11.4
10.8
20.2
0.3
23.2
3.4
14.7
132.3
5.1
365.1
149.4
314.2
116.5
0.0
0.2
41.1
11.1
2.1
14.0
13.3
25.2
0.3
29.6
4.0
18.4
171.5
5.4
7.3
5.4
6.8
7.3
1.8
-3.9
16.3
16.7
3.1
10.7
12.0
-1.3
-6.2
8.1
2.3
7.8
6.9
4.1
5.0
3.9
4.9
5.3
3.5
3.0
3.4
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.3
6.8
4.8
5.0
4.0
6.3
6.5
10.3
-2.0
2.8
3.9
5.3
5.1
-1.1
2.4
3.5
4.2
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.4
-0.5
4.0
3.2
3.4
3.5
0.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.4
0.6
0.3
1.7
2010
2020
1.7
2.3
3.0
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
-0.1
2.5
1.6
2.2
2.6
0.6
34.2
0.1
0.2
5.6
1.3
1.2
3.0
2.4
10.9
1.4
9.5
2.4
5.2
51.6
6.2
35.9
0.1
0.1
13.1
3.1
0.8
4.2
3.9
4.9
0.4
10.8
1.5
5.7
52.0
4.8
37.4
0.0
0.1
13.1
3.1
0.7
4.9
4.6
8.1
0.2
8.8
1.4
5.9
53.0
2.7
37.6
0.0
0.1
13.2
3.4
0.7
4.6
4.4
8.2
0.1
9.4
1.4
5.9
53.5
2.1
37.1
0.0
0.1
13.1
3.5
0.7
4.4
4.2
8.0
0.1
9.4
1.3
5.8
54.6
1.7
1.3
2.8
1.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
ITALY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
56.7
2.6
21.5
56.9
2.4
24.0
58.7
2.2
27.2
58.3
2.0
29.6
57.1
1.8
31.1
0.0
-1.1
1.1
0.3
-0.9
1.2
-0.1
-0.9
0.9
-0.2
-0.7
0.5
1172.7
699.7
1054.6
226.5
7.1
2.2
18.5
9.2
14.2
14.9
9.7
22.8
33.2
87.3
26.4
65.2
696.9
32.5
1372.9
825.0
1230.1
255.6
6.9
3.3
20.5
10.6
15.5
16.9
11.0
25.5
33.1
100.9
33.0
62.4
837.4
41.2
1541.5
915.3
1379.7
260.7
9.5
3.3
21.3
12.1
17.2
18.1
12.2
26.5
23.8
107.0
33.9
79.1
962.8
41.8
1864.3
1093.2
1663.4
318.7
11.6
3.9
27.4
16.2
19.6
22.8
15.4
33.3
22.3
134.9
43.0
86.2
1174.5
44.6
2168.0
1260.1
1930.3
378.6
13.0
4.6
33.8
20.8
22.0
27.7
18.8
41.1
22.1
161.4
52.8
89.6
1372.4
46.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
-0.3
4.3
1.0
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.0
1.5
2.3
-0.4
1.9
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.2
0.2
3.3
-0.1
0.4
1.3
1.1
0.7
1.1
0.4
-3.3
0.6
0.3
2.4
1.4
0.1
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.7
2.5
2.9
1.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
-0.6
2.3
2.4
0.9
2.0
0.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.5
1.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
-0.1
1.8
2.1
0.4
1.6
0.4
21.5
0.7
0.2
1.7
0.9
1.4
1.4
0.9
2.2
3.1
8.3
2.5
6.2
66.1
3.1
20.8
0.6
0.3
1.7
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.9
2.1
2.7
8.2
2.7
5.1
68.1
3.4
18.9
0.7
0.2
1.5
0.9
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.9
1.7
7.8
2.5
5.7
69.8
3.0
19.2
0.7
0.2
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.9
2.0
1.3
8.1
2.6
5.2
70.6
2.7
19.6
0.7
0.2
1.8
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.0
2.1
1.1
8.4
2.7
4.6
71.1
2.4
33.5
33.5
35.4
39.3
43.2
0.0
0.6
1.1
0.9
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
LATVIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
2.7
2.7
1.0
2.4
2.6
0.9
2.2
2.4
0.9
2.1
2.3
0.9
2.0
2.2
0.9
-1.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
0.1
12.4
7.6
10.9
3.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.2
2.0
4.1
0.9
8.7
5.4
7.7
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
4.9
0.6
18.9
12.0
16.7
3.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.8
1.0
1.1
11.1
0.8
31.8
20.0
28.3
5.9
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.4
1.2
0.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
19.1
0.9
43.4
27.0
38.6
8.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.3
2.1
2.2
2.4
26.4
1.2
-3.5
-3.4
-3.4
-7.6
0.3
8.1
8.3
8.1
8.1
4.6
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.8
1.6
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.2
1.2
-7.1
50.0
-6.8
-12.3
-11.5
-7.5
-10.5
-12.4
5.0
-14.3
1.7
-4.8
9.8
11.5
20.4
4.8
5.0
4.2
1.8
12.9
9.4
10.0
8.5
3.0
6.7
7.5
6.2
5.9
6.4
6.6
3.4
6.5
5.1
5.3
5.6
2.3
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
-5.1
4.5
1.7
4.2
4.6
2.9
3.7
3.9
3.5
1.9
3.3
3.2
2.8
3.3
2.1
31.0
0.6
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
5.2
4.0
8.4
4.7
8.1
2.2
18.3
38.0
8.4
19.9
0.9
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
2.0
1.7
5.4
2.2
3.1
5.2
5.5
63.7
7.3
20.0
0.6
0.0
0.8
0.6
1.6
1.5
1.2
3.7
1.2
4.8
5.8
6.6
66.3
4.5
20.7
0.4
0.0
0.9
0.7
1.8
1.5
1.4
4.2
1.0
5.3
5.7
6.6
67.6
3.3
20.9
0.4
0.0
1.0
0.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
4.3
0.9
5.3
5.7
6.3
68.4
3.0
0.8
4.3
3.6
2.5
1.8
1.4
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
89
APPENDIX 1
LITHUANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
3.7
2.9
1.3
3.5
2.8
1.3
3.3
2.4
1.4
3.2
2.3
1.4
3.1
2.1
1.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
0.7
-0.5
-0.8
0.3
-0.3
-0.6
0.3
19.2
12.8
16.8
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
1.7
6.7
1.6
14.2
9.7
12.7
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
7.4
1.2
28.1
19.4
24.7
6.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.0
0.7
1.7
1.6
1.8
13.7
1.5
44.7
30.1
39.1
10.1
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.6
0.8
3.2
2.8
3.0
22.1
1.9
64.6
42.7
56.4
14.6
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
2.4
0.9
4.7
4.1
4.3
32.7
2.2
-3.0
-2.8
-2.8
-4.6
7.1
7.2
6.9
8.6
4.7
4.5
4.7
5.2
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.7
-0.4
4.1
-4.6
-4.1
-2.0
-6.2
-6.8
-4.7
0.4
-8.5
0.9
-2.5
6.5
0.7
9.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.0
14.2
13.5
9.9
6.4
2.3
5.3
8.7
5.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
2.0
6.4
5.6
5.1
4.9
1.9
2.5
0.7
1.6
2.1
2.6
-12.4
8.7
3.0
4.7
8.2
3.1
3.3
3.4
4.0
1.3
3.8
4.1
3.6
4.0
1.6
25.4
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.3
1.1
2.1
1.3
7.7
6.1
4.4
2.6
10.1
40.1
9.4
21.1
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.5
0.9
1.8
1.4
5.4
4.0
3.6
3.6
5.6
58.4
9.7
24.6
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.3
1.1
1.4
1.1
4.2
2.7
7.0
6.5
7.3
55.6
6.2
25.9
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
4.2
2.1
8.2
7.1
7.6
56.5
4.8
25.9
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.6
1.2
1.2
1.0
4.3
1.7
8.3
7.3
7.5
58.0
3.9
2.4
15.0
5.3
6.3
5.3
4.7
LUXEMBOURG: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
0.4
2.7
0.1
0.4
2.5
0.2
0.5
2.4
0.2
0.5
2.2
0.2
0.6
2.1
0.3
1.3
-0.6
2.0
1.0
-0.6
1.5
0.9
-0.7
1.5
0.9
-0.5
1.3
13.5
7.0
14.0
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.3
1.0
10.6
0.1
25.3
10.0
22.4
3.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.6
1.3
17.6
0.2
36.6
13.8
31.9
3.5
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.6
1.9
25.8
0.1
51.2
18.3
44.4
4.7
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.9
2.6
36.2
0.1
66.1
22.8
56.9
6.0
0.6
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
1.5
1.2
3.2
46.5
0.1
6.5
3.7
4.8
3.6
3.2
3.8
3.3
3.6
1.7
-0.8
3.4
2.8
3.4
3.1
1.5
2.6
2.2
2.5
2.4
0.3
8.0
16.7
2.0
2.8
2.8
-1.7
4.1
3.2
7.2
3.3
5.2
1.5
6.4
11.3
2.1
5.9
5.9
1.9
4.0
-0.3
1.3
3.9
3.9
-3.3
4.1
4.6
2.5
3.9
3.9
4.0
0.9
3.3
3.7
3.0
3.4
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.0
4.2
5.8
2.9
2010
2020
3.0
3.3
2.3
2.7
2.7
2.8
0.7
2.6
3.1
2.2
2.5
0.8
14.9
2.8
0.0
0.7
0.1
1.6
1.0
1.0
1.5
0.9
4.4
2.0
6.8
75.7
1.0
13.2
2.4
0.0
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
3.8
2.5
5.9
78.7
0.7
10.9
1.5
0.0
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.9
2.6
2.0
6.1
80.8
0.4
10.7
1.3
0.0
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.7
2.6
2.0
5.8
81.5
0.3
10.5
1.0
0.0
1.4
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.6
2.6
2.1
5.7
81.8
0.2
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.7
MALTA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

0.4
3.2
0.1
0.4
2.9
0.1
0.4
2.6
0.2
0.5
2.5
0.2
0.5
2.3
0.2
0.8
-0.8
1.6
1.0
-1.0
2.1
0.8
-0.7
1.5
0.5
-0.6
1.2

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
2.8
1.5
2.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
1.7
0.0
4.5
2.5
4.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.1
2.8
0.0
5.2
2.9
4.6
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.1
3.1
0.0
7.4
4.2
6.6
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.2
4.6
0.0
9.8
5.6
8.7
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.2
6.1
0.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
3.7
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.7
1.9
5.5
2.7
2.5
0.9
3.1
3.7
4.0
2.8
2.7
2.8
Energy sector
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
3.7
2.1
1.7
1.4
25.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.3
3.4
66.9
0.0
22.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.5
2.5
71.0
0.0
25.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.6
2.8
67.3
0.0
24.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.3
2.8
69.4
0.0
24.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.3
2.8
69.8
0.0
4.5
4.0
4.2
3.5
3.1
Source: PRIMES
90
Update 2007
APPENDIX 1
THE NETHERLANDS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
14.9
2.5
6.0
15.9
2.4
6.8
16.6
2.2
7.7
17.2
2.0
8.5
17.6
1.9
9.2
0.6
-0.6
1.2
0.5
-0.8
1.3
0.4
-0.7
1.1
0.2
-0.5
0.7
344.9
173.6
322.2
61.1
1.7
0.7
10.2
1.2
2.8
7.7
5.7
10.1
2.0
18.8
7.1
20.3
213.2
10.5
477.3
240.1
428.3
74.4
1.5
0.8
12.7
3.0
2.7
9.0
7.0
12.3
1.9
24.6
8.7
21.4
303.5
12.9
579.8
284.4
521.1
82.4
1.5
1.2
17.6
3.4
2.7
9.0
6.6
14.3
1.6
24.6
9.9
21.4
384.3
14.3
702.6
339.9
624.8
95.3
1.7
1.4
20.4
3.9
3.0
10.5
7.7
16.7
1.6
28.5
11.5
25.5
468.2
15.3
811.6
386.9
713.6
106.1
1.8
1.6
22.8
4.2
3.2
11.7
8.7
18.6
1.6
32.0
12.8
28.3
542.3
15.9
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.0
-1.0
1.0
2.2
9.1
-0.2
1.6
2.0
2.1
-0.4
2.7
2.1
0.5
3.6
2.0
2.0
1.7
2.0
1.0
0.0
3.7
3.3
1.4
-0.2
0.0
-0.6
1.5
-1.6
0.0
1.2
0.0
2.4
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.5
-0.2
1.5
1.5
1.8
2.0
0.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.5
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.1
0.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.5
0.4
19.0
0.5
0.2
3.2
0.4
0.9
2.4
1.8
3.1
0.6
5.8
2.2
6.3
66.2
3.3
17.4
0.4
0.2
3.0
0.7
0.6
2.1
1.6
2.9
0.4
5.7
2.0
5.0
70.9
3.0
15.8
0.3
0.2
3.4
0.7
0.5
1.7
1.3
2.7
0.3
4.7
1.9
4.1
73.7
2.7
15.3
0.3
0.2
3.3
0.6
0.5
1.7
1.2
2.7
0.3
4.6
1.8
4.1
74.9
2.5
14.9
0.3
0.2
3.2
0.6
0.5
1.6
1.2
2.6
0.2
4.5
1.8
4.0
76.0
2.2
17.1
16.2
18.8
20.4
21.0
-0.5
1.5
0.8
0.3
5.3
3.8
3.6
3.3
2.9
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
POLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
38.0
3.1
12.2
38.7
2.8
13.8
37.8
2.6
14.7
37.1
2.5
14.9
36.5
2.4
15.1
0.2
-1.0
1.2
-0.2
-0.9
0.7
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
144.8
73.9
127.6
27.4
2.0
0.2
2.5
0.7
1.5
1.1
0.5
5.0
2.3
10.4
2.3
8.7
70.6
10.4
209.9
130.1
181.7
42.0
1.6
0.3
3.3
1.6
2.8
3.0
2.1
11.0
2.9
11.8
5.3
12.3
103.7
11.5
301.3
224.6
257.7
66.1
1.4
0.5
5.2
2.4
3.7
4.0
2.3
16.3
2.5
22.7
9.8
13.7
144.1
16.3
472.2
340.7
399.5
108.4
1.5
0.6
8.6
4.2
5.9
6.4
3.9
26.6
2.8
39.2
16.7
22.7
224.5
23.3
654.3
472.7
550.8
143.0
1.7
0.7
12.6
6.7
7.8
8.4
5.2
34.8
2.9
52.2
21.9
31.8
322.1
30.5
3.8
5.8
3.6
4.4
-2.3
4.3
2.8
8.9
6.5
10.0
14.5
8.1
2.2
1.3
8.8
3.5
3.9
1.0
3.7
5.6
3.6
4.6
-1.4
3.3
4.6
4.2
2.5
3.1
0.9
4.1
-1.4
6.7
6.4
1.0
3.4
3.6
4.6
4.3
4.5
5.1
1.2
2.7
5.2
5.8
4.9
4.9
5.4
5.0
1.1
5.6
5.5
5.2
4.5
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
2.8
0.9
1.4
3.9
4.8
2.8
2.7
3.0
2.7
0.4
2.9
2.7
3.4
3.7
2.7
21.5
1.5
0.2
2.0
0.5
1.2
0.9
0.4
4.0
1.8
8.2
1.8
6.8
55.4
8.2
23.1
0.9
0.2
1.8
0.9
1.6
1.6
1.2
6.0
1.6
6.5
2.9
6.8
57.0
6.3
25.6
0.5
0.2
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.6
0.9
6.3
1.0
8.8
3.8
5.3
55.9
6.3
27.1
0.4
0.2
2.2
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.0
6.7
0.7
9.8
4.2
5.7
56.2
5.8
26.0
0.3
0.1
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.5
0.9
6.3
0.5
9.5
4.0
5.8
58.5
5.5
10.5
12.3
17.5
20.6
23.3
1.6
3.6
1.6
1.3
8.2
6.8
6.8
5.2
4.2
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
PORTUGAL: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
10.0
3.0
3.3
10.2
2.8
3.7
10.7
2.6
4.1
10.8
2.5
4.4
10.7
2.3
4.6
0.2
-0.9
1.1
0.4
-0.6
1.0
0.1
-0.6
0.7
-0.1
-0.5
0.4
102.2
62.8
93.8
20.5
0.2
0.1
1.8
0.6
1.4
2.1
1.3
3.9
5.5
3.5
2.0
6.3
59.1
4.9
143.1
93.8
123.4
23.2
0.3
0.2
1.5
0.7
2.5
2.1
1.0
2.6
4.4
6.9
2.6
8.3
81.8
5.5
162.8
110.7
141.2
23.9
0.5
0.2
1.5
0.6
2.3
1.8
1.1
2.8
3.5
8.1
3.1
7.3
99.7
5.0
212.8
141.6
182.1
29.8
0.6
0.2
2.1
1.0
2.8
2.3
1.5
3.6
3.6
10.5
4.1
9.0
131.3
6.0
272.8
178.3
227.1
35.8
0.7
0.3
2.8
1.4
3.4
2.9
1.9
4.3
3.6
12.9
5.0
10.9
167.3
6.8
3.4
4.1
2.8
1.2
8.0
4.8
-1.7
1.0
6.1
0.1
-2.3
-3.8
-2.4
7.1
2.5
2.8
3.3
1.1
1.3
1.7
1.4
0.3
4.1
1.2
0.1
-0.7
-0.9
-1.3
0.6
0.6
-2.1
1.5
1.8
-1.3
2.0
-0.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.3
1.7
1.5
3.4
4.5
2.1
2.3
2.9
2.6
0.2
2.6
2.8
2.2
2.8
1.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.0
1.1
2.8
3.8
1.8
2.2
2.4
1.8
0.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.5
1.3
21.9
0.2
0.1
1.9
0.6
1.5
2.2
1.4
4.2
5.9
3.7
2.2
6.7
63.1
5.2
18.8
0.3
0.2
1.2
0.5
2.0
1.7
0.8
2.1
3.5
5.6
2.1
6.7
66.3
4.5
16.9
0.4
0.2
1.1
0.4
1.6
1.3
0.8
2.0
2.5
5.7
2.2
5.2
70.6
3.6
16.4
0.3
0.1
1.2
0.5
1.5
1.3
0.8
2.0
2.0
5.7
2.2
5.0
72.1
3.3
15.8
0.3
0.1
1.2
0.6
1.5
1.3
0.8
1.9
1.6
5.7
2.2
4.8
73.7
3.0
2.9
4.6
5.4
6.0
6.3
4.6
1.5
1.1
0.5
3.1
3.7
3.8
3.3
2.8
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
91
APPENDIX 1
ROMANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030

23.2
3.3
7.1
21.9
2.9
7.7
21.3
2.6
8.2
20.3
2.5
8.0
19.2
2.5
7.8
-0.6
-1.3
0.7
-0.3
-0.9
0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
-0.3

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
71.4
47.9
66.6
23.2
2.0
0.3
1.5
0.1
1.6
0.6
0.1
5.4
2.7
7.0
2.1
3.3
23.5
13.6
60.1
44.4
56.5
17.8
0.8
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.4
6.1
2.7
3.5
2.0
3.5
23.1
9.2
104.9
90.0
98.6
29.4
1.1
0.7
1.3
0.5
0.9
1.1
0.9
12.4
3.7
4.2
3.8
7.2
43.8
14.6
185.1
159.7
173.4
49.2
1.6
0.8
2.7
1.6
1.7
2.3
1.8
20.5
4.9
8.0
6.7
13.2
85.6
19.9
301.8
261.0
282.2
75.9
2.0
1.0
4.7
3.3
2.7
3.7
3.0
30.2
6.2
14.4
11.0
21.7
151.1
25.6
-1.7
-0.8
-1.6
-2.6
-8.5
1.9
-4.5
15.0
-6.9
0.0
9.4
1.2
0.2
-6.9
-0.5
0.5
-0.1
-3.8
5.7
7.3
5.7
5.1
3.6
4.7
3.1
5.5
2.0
7.2
9.3
7.4
3.2
2.1
6.6
7.6
6.6
4.7
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.3
3.2
2.0
7.4
11.7
5.8
7.3
7.8
5.1
2.8
6.6
5.8
6.3
6.9
3.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.4
2.5
1.8
5.7
7.4
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.0
2.3
6.0
5.1
5.1
5.8
2.5
34.9
2.9
0.5
2.3
0.1
2.4
0.9
0.2
8.1
4.0
10.6
3.2
4.9
35.3
20.4
31.5
1.4
0.7
1.7
0.6
1.4
1.0
0.6
10.8
4.8
6.1
3.6
6.1
40.9
16.3
29.8
1.2
0.7
1.3
0.5
1.0
1.2
0.9
12.6
3.8
4.3
3.9
7.3
44.4
14.8
28.4
0.9
0.5
1.6
0.9
1.0
1.3
1.1
11.8
2.8
4.6
3.8
7.6
49.3
11.5
26.9
0.7
0.3
1.7
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.1
10.7
2.2
5.1
3.9
7.7
53.5
9.1
3.1
2.9
3.6
5.5
7.9
-0.4
2.1
4.4
3.7
4.6
5.2
3.6
3.2
2.8
Energy sector
SLOVAKIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
5.3
2.5
2.1
5.4
2.2
2.5
5.4
2.0
2.7
5.3
1.9
2.8
5.2
1.8
2.9
0.2
-1.3
1.6
-0.1
-1.0
0.9
-0.2
-0.5
0.4
-0.2
-0.5
0.3
26.3
16.5
27.6
6.2
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.6
1.6
0.7
1.2
14.4
2.6
30.5
16.8
26.9
7.1
0.7
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.6
2.3
0.8
1.4
15.5
1.3
50.0
26.3
43.4
16.0
1.5
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.8
0.7
7.1
3.1
2.2
20.0
3.0
77.6
39.5
66.0
24.6
2.1
0.3
1.2
0.5
1.1
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
11.6
4.8
3.6
31.3
4.2
105.7
53.1
88.2
31.3
2.5
0.3
1.6
0.8
1.5
2.3
1.6
1.4
0.8
14.8
6.2
4.8
45.0
4.9
1.5
0.2
-0.3
1.3
5.7
19.6
-2.4
-1.6
0.5
1.4
4.4
-3.3
0.1
3.6
0.8
1.5
0.8
-6.2
5.1
4.6
4.9
8.5
8.7
-0.6
2.1
4.0
3.6
6.0
12.3
0.1
1.5
12.0
14.7
4.4
2.6
8.4
4.5
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.6
1.8
4.8
7.2
4.6
4.3
5.9
3.6
0.7
5.0
4.5
5.0
4.6
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.4
1.7
1.3
3.2
4.2
2.6
2.9
3.6
2.6
0.2
2.4
2.6
2.7
3.7
1.6
22.4
1.4
0.1
2.8
0.7
1.8
2.0
0.5
3.8
2.2
5.8
2.6
4.5
52.0
9.3
26.2
2.4
0.9
2.2
0.7
1.9
2.3
0.8
2.8
2.3
8.5
2.9
5.4
57.8
5.0
36.9
3.5
0.5
1.7
0.6
1.7
2.6
1.5
1.7
1.6
16.5
7.1
5.1
46.1
6.9
37.3
3.2
0.4
1.8
0.8
1.7
2.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
17.6
7.3
5.5
47.5
6.3
35.5
2.8
0.3
1.8
0.9
1.7
2.6
1.9
1.6
0.9
16.8
7.1
5.4
51.1
5.5
3.3
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.2
-7.4
3.5
0.4
-0.1
11.8
5.7
4.9
3.4
2.5
SLOVENIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
2.0
3.3
0.6
2.0
2.9
0.7
2.0
2.7
0.7
2.0
2.6
0.8
2.0
2.4
0.8
0.0
-1.4
1.4
0.1
-0.6
0.7
0.0
-0.6
0.6
-0.1
-0.6
0.6
19.4
10.2
16.8
5.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
0.7
2.0
0.7
1.0
9.1
0.7
23.3
13.1
19.7
5.5
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.5
2.1
0.8
1.2
11.7
0.7
33.7
18.0
28.5
8.3
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
3.8
1.2
1.5
17.2
0.7
43.5
23.0
36.6
10.5
0.3
0.2
1.5
1.1
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.4
4.9
1.4
2.1
22.3
0.8
52.3
27.5
43.9
12.1
0.3
0.2
1.8
1.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.4
5.6
1.6
2.6
27.5
0.9
1.9
2.6
1.6
0.6
1.1
-2.1
14.5
19.2
-0.8
-0.6
0.4
-2.6
-2.5
0.5
1.3
1.2
2.6
-0.9
3.7
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.2
6.4
6.0
7.8
1.7
3.0
3.4
-0.7
-1.9
6.1
3.3
2.6
3.9
0.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.1
3.4
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.6
-0.4
2.5
2.2
3.5
2.6
1.4
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.3
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.7
-0.2
1.3
1.3
2.2
2.1
1.0
31.1
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.4
1.6
2.8
1.5
3.9
4.1
12.1
4.4
6.2
54.2
4.4
28.1
0.7
0.4
3.2
2.0
1.3
2.3
1.4
2.6
2.7
10.8
4.3
5.9
59.5
3.5
29.1
0.7
0.5
4.0
3.0
1.0
2.1
1.3
1.6
1.6
13.5
4.1
5.3
60.5
2.5
28.7
0.7
0.5
4.1
3.1
1.0
2.1
1.4
1.7
1.2
13.4
3.9
5.8
61.1
2.3
27.5
0.7
0.5
4.0
3.0
1.0
2.1
1.4
1.8
1.0
12.7
3.7
6.0
62.6
2.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
-1.6
2.1
0.8
0.4
4.1
3.0
2.5
2.2
1.9
Source: PRIMES
92
Update 2007
APPENDIX 1
SPAIN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
38.8
3.2
12.2
40.0
2.9
14.0
44.4
2.7
16.4
45.6
2.6
17.9
45.4
2.4
18.8
0.3
-1.0
1.3
1.0
-0.5
1.6
0.3
-0.6
0.9
0.0
-0.6
0.5
573.7
348.6
567.9
106.5
4.2
1.1
8.9
3.9
9.1
7.7
5.4
15.5
7.8
38.5
13.7
47.0
366.3
27.3
772.2
463.4
706.3
130.9
4.1
1.7
11.6
5.0
10.8
11.6
7.7
19.0
10.0
45.7
16.4
54.3
456.9
37.1
1065.0
641.6
958.1
161.6
5.4
2.4
16.8
7.8
14.0
13.8
9.4
23.8
9.4
56.2
19.8
88.7
640.1
34.3
1410.8
837.1
1270.3
217.1
6.4
3.3
24.8
12.9
18.9
18.3
12.6
32.1
9.9
76.9
26.5
118.7
853.6
39.6
1674.6
982.9
1482.7
251.2
6.8
3.8
30.5
16.8
21.7
21.4
14.8
37.3
10.1
89.4
30.1
137.2
1004.5
43.7
3.0
2.9
2.2
2.1
-0.2
4.5
2.7
2.5
1.7
4.2
3.6
2.1
2.5
1.7
1.8
1.5
2.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.1
2.8
3.6
3.8
4.5
2.6
1.7
2.0
2.3
-0.6
2.1
1.9
5.0
3.4
-0.8
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.0
1.8
3.1
4.0
5.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.6
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.5
1.5
2.1
2.7
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.1
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.0
18.8
0.7
0.2
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.4
1.0
2.7
1.4
6.8
2.4
8.3
64.5
4.8
18.5
0.6
0.2
1.6
0.7
1.5
1.6
1.1
2.7
1.4
6.5
2.3
7.7
64.7
5.2
16.9
0.6
0.3
1.8
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.0
2.5
1.0
5.9
2.1
9.3
66.8
3.6
17.1
0.5
0.3
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.0
2.5
0.8
6.1
2.1
9.3
67.2
3.1
16.9
0.5
0.3
2.1
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.0
2.5
0.7
6.0
2.0
9.3
67.7
2.9
20.8
27.2
33.4
41.3
46.2
2.7
2.1
2.2
1.1
3.7
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
SWEDEN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
Annual % Change
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
8.5
2.2
3.8
8.9
2.1
4.1
9.2
2.0
4.6
9.6
1.9
5.1
9.9
1.8
5.5
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.7
1.1
0.4
-0.6
1.0
0.3
-0.4
0.8
208.1
107.3
181.9
33.3
1.5
0.4
2.7
1.0
1.1
8.0
3.9
3.2
0.8
13.1
2.5
10.0
123.3
5.6
256.1
126.5
224.7
59.9
2.1
0.4
5.5
3.3
1.0
7.9
2.8
3.4
0.5
34.1
4.9
8.2
144.7
5.1
336.0
156.3
296.5
87.5
2.1
0.8
8.8
6.6
1.1
8.7
3.5
3.6
0.4
56.2
5.9
10.7
184.4
6.0
421.2
190.3
373.8
112.9
2.4
0.9
11.8
9.3
1.3
11.1
4.6
4.4
0.4
73.4
7.2
13.4
232.0
6.9
502.5
223.4
447.4
134.7
2.5
1.0
14.5
11.7
1.5
13.0
5.6
5.2
0.4
88.3
8.2
15.5
280.7
7.5
2.1
1.7
2.1
6.1
3.6
0.7
7.6
13.0
-1.7
0.0
-3.4
0.7
-4.9
10.0
6.9
-2.0
1.6
-1.0
2.8
2.1
2.8
3.9
0.0
5.5
4.8
7.1
1.1
0.9
2.3
0.6
-1.8
5.1
1.8
2.7
2.4
1.6
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.1
3.0
3.5
1.9
2.5
2.8
2.1
0.1
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.3
1.3
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
0.6
0.7
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.7
0.2
1.9
1.3
1.5
1.9
0.8
18.3
0.8
0.2
1.5
0.5
0.6
4.4
2.2
1.7
0.4
7.2
1.4
5.5
67.8
3.1
26.6
1.0
0.2
2.5
1.5
0.4
3.5
1.2
1.5
0.2
15.2
2.2
3.7
64.4
2.3
29.5
0.7
0.3
3.0
2.2
0.4
2.9
1.2
1.2
0.1
18.9
2.0
3.6
62.2
2.0
30.2
0.6
0.2
3.2
2.5
0.3
3.0
1.2
1.2
0.1
19.6
1.9
3.6
62.1
1.8
30.1
0.6
0.2
3.2
2.6
0.3
2.9
1.2
1.2
0.1
19.7
1.8
3.5
62.7
1.7
9.7
6.8
7.9
8.6
9.1
-3.5
1.5
0.8
0.6
5.3
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.0
UNITED KINGDOM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

Annual % Change

Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
57.2
2.6
22.3
58.8
2.4
24.5
61.1
2.3
27.0
62.9
2.1
29.3
64.4
2.1
30.8
0.3
-0.7
0.9
0.4
-0.6
1.0
0.3
-0.5
0.8
0.2
-0.3
0.5
1249.5
807.0
1153.7
251.7
6.7
4.0
23.6
9.9
10.5
31.3
24.1
33.3
15.9
101.3
25.1
68.5
758.1
23.7
1587.4
1052.7
1483.3
274.2
4.5
3.2
32.4
16.1
9.6
32.7
26.0
34.7
11.4
120.0
25.7
66.9
1047.6
24.2
2033.9
1365.4
1918.0
275.8
4.0
2.8
40.9
22.3
11.7
30.4
25.3
39.1
6.5
115.7
24.6
91.1
1461.9
25.1
2560.2
1702.5
2433.2
324.4
4.2
3.2
51.0
29.5
13.7
34.4
29.1
46.0
5.4
137.6
28.8
115.4
1900.6
27.7
3065.4
2023.9
2928.0
369.8
4.4
3.5
58.3
34.9
15.3
38.7
33.2
52.7
5.2
158.1
33.5
137.5
2324.4
29.7
2.4
2.7
2.5
0.9
-4.0
-2.1
3.2
5.0
-0.9
0.4
0.7
0.4
-3.3
1.7
0.3
-0.2
3.3
0.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
0.1
-1.2
-1.3
2.4
3.3
2.0
-0.7
-0.3
1.2
-5.5
-0.4
-0.4
3.1
3.4
0.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
1.6
0.5
1.4
2.2
2.8
1.6
1.3
1.4
1.6
-1.9
1.8
1.6
2.4
2.7
1.0
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.3
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
-0.2
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.0
0.7
21.8
0.6
0.3
2.0
0.9
0.9
2.7
2.1
2.9
1.4
8.8
2.2
5.9
65.7
2.1
18.5
0.3
0.2
2.2
1.1
0.6
2.2
1.7
2.3
0.8
8.1
1.7
4.5
70.6
1.6
14.4
0.2
0.1
2.1
1.2
0.6
1.6
1.3
2.0
0.3
6.0
1.3
4.8
76.2
1.3
13.3
0.2
0.1
2.1
1.2
0.6
1.4
1.2
1.9
0.2
5.7
1.2
4.7
78.1
1.1
12.6
0.2
0.1
2.0
1.2
0.5
1.3
1.1
1.8
0.2
5.4
1.1
4.7
79.4
1.0
51.7
70.4
64.0
65.1
66.5
3.1
-0.9
0.2
0.2
4.5
4.7
3.3
2.7
2.3
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
93
APPENDIX 2
APPENDIX 2: SUMMARY ENERGY

BALANCES AND INDICATORS
Update 2007
95
APPENDIX 2
EU27: Baseline scenario
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
933011
365918
128809
162447
202589
73248
25101
44737
67
153
3190
946298
277924
170055
188965
223028
86325
28054
54203
350
273
3444
937567
213693
171665
207559
243761
100890
30374
64774
1913
418
3412
896393
196451
132993
188021
257360
121568
26394
82903
6060
816
5395
833813
164952
104666
168212
245217
150766
28650
101964
12441
2149
5562
770223
152365
77166
128999
243715
167977
28334
112480
17372
4168
5624
724758
141764
53111
114934
221472
193477
28930
129229
23321
6242
5756
698486
133672
44309
98306
208950
213248
29677
142874
27030
7669
5998
690691
125808
40820
84761
206403
232899
30182
158041
29437
8671
6567
0.0
-5.2
2.9
2.5
1.9
3.3
1.9
3.8
39.8
10.6
0.7
-1.2
-2.6
-4.8
-2.1
0.1
4.1
-0.6
4.6
20.6
17.8
5.0
-1.4
-1.5
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
2.5
0.1
2.4
6.5
11.3
0.3
-0.5
-1.2
-2.6
-3.0
-0.7
1.9
0.4
2.0
2.4
3.3
1.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
748677
79289
530805
503539
27265
135121
3321
730704
79183
504448
488479
15969
145288
1508
818875
98575
525661
507317
18344
192531
1687
975298
126702
589611
574313
15298
256828
973
1073937
153315
623018
612296
10722
294227
1496
1213468
181784
669687
659150
10537
358047
1466
1301127
200088
706804
696273
10530
389963
1040
1358383
212519
723977
713873
10104
417103
927
1375782
209834
729187
720959
8228
431449
923
0.9
2.2
-0.1
0.1
-3.9
3.6
-6.6
2.7
4.5
1.7
1.9
-5.2
4.3
-1.2
1.9
2.7
1.3
1.3
-0.2
2.9
-3.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
-2.4
1.0
-1.2
1649991 1650662 1711954

450105
364252
321390
625464
642003
650399
294905
333268
393417
202589
223028
243761
3323
1508
1687
73604
86602
101302
1811406
320065
665514
444804
257360
973
122689
1854101
318268
674035
462439
245217
1496
152646
1927639 1967569
334149
341852
690801
701599
487045
504897
243715
221472
1466
1040
170461
196709
1996562
346191
707980
515409
208950
927
217106
2004713
335642
708247
516210
206403
923
237287
0.4
-3.3
0.4
2.9
1.9
-6.6
3.2
0.8
-0.1
0.4
1.6
0.1
-1.2
4.2
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.9
-1.0
-3.6
2.6
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.7
-1.2
1.9
17.3
35.5
25.8
10.5
10.9
16.7
35.3
25.7
10.3
11.8
1.6
1.7
2.5
1.3
1.8
0.1
2.5
2.5
1.3
-0.9
2.5
2.0
0.8
0.1
1.4
0.8
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms
as % in Gross Inland Consumption
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity Generation in GWhe
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Thermal (incl. biomass)
27.3
37.9
17.9
12.3
4.5
22.1
38.9
20.2
13.5
5.2
18.8
38.0
23.0
14.2
5.9
17.7
36.7
24.6
14.2
6.8
17.2
36.4
24.9
13.2
8.2
2562817 2712158
794718
881662
292648
330306
1475450 1500190
2992030
944823
375545
1671662
3275359
997519
378860
1898980
3568320
951111
481529
2135680
17.3
35.8
25.3
12.6
8.8
17.4
35.7
25.7
11.3
10.0
3839408 4078237 4272996 4408034

948709
865576
829677
872262
538143
619322
676027
714430
2352557 2593340 2767291 2821342
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation

Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
379588
259913
54361
56680
5861
2774
0
365762
233747
51375
67840
9809
2992
0
382767
223114
39172
102572
14969
2939
0
423183
229144
29499
133257
26638
4645
0
415848
232463
18358
132457
27764
4806
0
440003
248240
14940
144740
27199
4884
0
466120
257475
13366
153813
36433
5032
0
480100
264078
11604
155776
43340
5301
0
473699
256705
10522
148530
52041
5900
0
0.1
-1.5
-3.2
6.1
9.8
0.6
0.8
0.4
-7.3
2.6
6.4
5.0
1.1
1.0
-3.1
1.5
2.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
-2.4
-0.3
3.6
1.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.

Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
835145
673810
2
33413
127920
808984
699352
202
23351
86079
818851
727451
624
19302
71473
834206
749312
3206
16177
65511
843634
750904
15230
19742
57757
868673
771020
23876
19218
54558
885771
783740
32268
18450
51313
895757
791845
37906
18404
47602
900529
794522
42427
18902
44678
-0.2
0.8
80.0
-5.3
-5.7
0.3
0.3
37.6
0.2
-2.1
0.5
0.4
7.8
-0.7
-1.2
0.2
0.1
2.8
0.2
-1.4
Energy Branch Consumption
81962
88206
87583
93941
90721
90473
91540
93131
93293
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.2
Non-Energy Uses
96068
105319
109135
111706
116067
120995
125519
128820
131214
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.4
1070684
1066881
1112182
1166880
1237040
1302036
1347807
1382755
1405680
0.4
1.1
0.9
0.4
367505
236724
130780
264548
159192
279440
325769
213853
111916
279716
161639
299758
324835
212264
112571
287255
160963
339129
324493
209326
115167
307013
173669
361705
338508
216422
122086
320538
187079
390915
355349
224917
130432
329712
198671
418304
367691
230337
137355
336005
205469
438642
378367
234372
143995
340246
210042
454100
386379
236848
149531
343345
212878
463079
-1.2
-1.1
-1.5
0.8
0.1
2.0
0.4
0.2
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.4
0.8
0.6
1.2
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.5
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.5
130725
442561
227872
184059
48744
36724
85607
455056
245996
194149
45026
41048
61781
477166
267506
217155
40988
47586
53475
492540
287197
237501
41333
54833
54508
510408
299128
262655
41412
68929
55303
528762
308836
285252
43395
80488
55440
539780
314216
303129
46154
89089
53938
548282
319612
316864
47361
96698
51328
549760
326376
326805
48385
103025
-7.2
0.8
1.6
1.7
-1.7
2.6
-1.2
0.7
1.1
1.9
0.1
3.8
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.4
1.1
2.6
-0.8
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.5
1.5
4046.9
1468.7
154.2
801.7
507.7
304.7
810.0
3819.5
1335.4
172.4
684.2
482.4
274.8
870.4
3820.8
1319.6
173.1
632.4
466.1
242.0
987.6
3947.0
1374.9
184.3
599.4
483.1
254.6
1050.6
3996.6
1350.9
171.5
617.1
487.3
259.6
1110.2
4156.8
1430.8
172.2
630.4
487.0
265.1
1171.2
4252.5
1482.8
171.5
637.3
485.0
263.4
1212.5
4306.6
1509.5
169.1
637.5
483.4
261.7
1245.4
4263.7
1462.5
164.7
633.3
483.3
260.0
1259.8
-0.6
-1.1
1.2
-2.3
-0.9
-2.3
2.0
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.6
0.9
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.9
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
100.0
94.4
94.4
97.5
98.8
102.7
105.1
106.4
105.4
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Services/Agriculture
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating)
Other
CO2 Emissions (Mt of CO2)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
CO2 Emissions Index (1990=100)
Source: PRIMES
96
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

1990
1995

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators

GDP (in 000 M05)
470.388
8108.7
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/M05)
203.5
Gross Inl. Cons./Capita (toe/inhabitant)
3.51
Electricity Generated/Capita (kWh gross/inhabitant)
5448
2.45
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
CO2 Emissions/Capita (t of CO2/inhabitant)
8.60
499.1
CO2 Emissions to GDP (t of CO2/M05)
Import Dependency %
44.4
Energy intensity indicators (2000=100)
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Services/Agriculture (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Transport
476.493
8712.4
189.5
3.46
5692
2.31
8.02
438.4
43.3
480.506
10046.1
170.4
3.56
6227
2.23
7.95
380.3
46.7
489.091
10949.3
165.4
3.70
6697
2.18
8.07
360.5
52.4
492.946
12430.0
149.2
3.76
7239
2.16
8.11
321.5
56.3
495.353
14059.2
137.1
3.89
7751
2.16
8.39
295.7
61.2
496.408
15686.9
125.4
3.96
8215
2.16
8.57
271.1
64.2
496.268
17265.7
115.6
4.02
8610
2.16
8.68
249.4
66.0
494.784
18687.0
107.3
4.05
8909
2.13
8.62
228.2
66.6
0.2
2.2
-1.8
0.2
1.3
-0.9
-0.8
-2.7
0.0
0.3
2.2
-1.3
0.5
1.5
-0.3
0.2
-1.7
0.0
0.1
2.4
-1.7
0.5
1.3
0.0
0.6
-1.7
0.0
0.0
1.8
-1.6
0.2
0.8
-0.2
0.1
-1.7
0.0
132.0
114.2
126.3
102.1
115.0
112.7
117.3
101.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
94.5
96.9
97.5
97.9
87.5
90.0
92.1
93.2
81.4
82.6
86.1
88.1
75.5
75.9
79.6
82.8
70.8
70.2
73.8
77.9
67.2
65.5
68.9
73.4
-2.7
-1.3
-2.3
-0.2
-1.3
-1.0
-0.8
-0.7
-1.5
-1.7
-1.4
-1.2
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-1.2
0.46
2.26
2.18
1.92
1.91
2.90
0.40
2.17
2.10
1.72
1.70
2.90
0.37
2.09
1.95
1.62
1.50
2.91
0.36
2.05
1.85
1.57
1.47
2.90
0.33
2.00
1.82
1.52
1.39
2.84
0.32
1.96
1.77
1.48
1.33
2.80
0.31
1.93
1.73
1.44
1.28
2.76
0.31
1.90
1.68
1.42
1.25
2.74
0.29
1.88
1.64
1.41
1.22
2.72
-2.0
-0.8
-1.1
-1.7
-2.4
0.0
-1.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
680864
135806
120596
107638
12786
172
0
424462
123462
191258
149738
71858
10810
0
798
739517
134187
151902
109284
40822
1797
0
453429
133684
188695
181031
67498
15216
0
988
835300
125494
186712
111355
71335
3782
240
523094
127287
187875
243517
68200
22504
0
998
861624
123653
211736
113039
92238
6142
317
526235
138508
188443
261100
50189
25502
0
1001
901228
112688
244844
114302
120374
8979
1189
543695
158320
186273
281835
38323
36234
0
1030
933704
98580
266126
114886
137231
12276
1733
568997
167584
191516
301287
31435
43723
0
1036
966119
102444
279257
115520
145940
15394
2403
584417
170049
188345
313393
30718
50700
0
1261
2.1
-0.8
4.5
0.3
18.8
36.2
2.1
0.3
-0.2
5.0
-0.5
7.6
0.8
-1.1
2.7
0.3
5.4
9.0
17.4
0.4
2.2
-0.1
1.5
-5.6
4.9
0.7
-0.9
1.3
0.1
1.9
5.5
7.3
0.7
0.7
0.1
1.1
-2.2
3.4
2.3
0.3
2.0
47.4
47.8
46.4
48.6
49.3
49.7
49.5
37.6
12.7
46.1
31.6
14.5
38.6
12.8
45.4
30.5
14.9
44.2
16.7
44.1
26.7
17.4
46.0
17.9
42.7
24.7
18.0
47.8
20.3
41.4
21.2
20.2
49.6
21.2
40.9
19.4
21.5
51.2
21.1
42.6
19.8
22.8
7.9
0.2
8.6
1.1
10.5
3.9
11.3
5.7
12.7
7.4
13.7
8.5
14.7
9.5
5819.7
514.0
4375.8
438.5
442.0
49.4
6245.4
529.0
4714.4
446.8
506.3
48.9
6783.8
540.4
5115.0
468.2
610.9
49.4
7350.0
557.5
5498.6
509.2
734.5
50.2
7897.1
580.2
5849.3
556.2
860.1
51.4
8412.9
600.5
6171.7
611.5
976.5
52.7
8860.8
617.4
6441.4
667.6
1080.6
53.8
1.5
0.5
1.6
0.7
3.3
0.0
1.5
0.7
1.4
1.7
3.5
0.4
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.8
2.3
0.5
Electricity and steam generation

Net Generation Capacity in MWe
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
Indicators for gross electricity production
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)
CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms
Indicators for renewables in final demand
RES in gross final demand (1) (%)
Biofuels share in transport gasoline and diesel (%)
Transport sector
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4784.5
555.6
3459.2
464.8
247.9
57.0
5221.8
498.3
3930.1
412.0
325.9
55.4
2.0
-0.8
2.4
-0.6
6.0
-1.4
Travel per person (km per capita)
10171
10959
12112
12769
13762
14838
15909
16952
17908
1.8
1.3
1.5
1.2

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1878.9
1096.9
524.8
257.2
1929.0
1279.3
385.0
264.7
2174.9
1507.5
396.1
271.3
2463.9
1790.0
393.9
280.1
2769.7
2048.3
427.2
294.2
3061.3
2278.9
469.5
312.9
3321.5
2485.6
504.6
331.3
3546.3
2666.7
535.2
344.3
3717.2
2803.0
558.9
355.3
1.5
3.2
-2.8
0.5
2.4
3.1
0.8
0.8
1.8
2.0
1.7
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.7
Freight activity per unit of GDP (tkm/000 05)

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Efficiency indicator (activity related)
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)
Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
232
221
216
225
223
218
212
205
199
-0.7
0.3
-0.5
-0.6
279440
5216
148125
80641
9605
28947
6905
299758
4538
159084
85832
9409
34014
6881
339129
4464
174735
99349
9710
45368
5503
361705
4316
175721
116963
9605
49744
5356
390915
4256
183393
129609
9849
58234
5574
418304
4275
189769
142040
10005
66410
5805
438642
4335
193342
151841
9688
73432
6003
454100
4339
194654
160060
9086
79901
6059
463079
4279
193848
165301
7686
85904
6061
2.0
-1.5
1.7
2.1
0.1
4.6
-2.2
1.4
-0.5
0.5
2.7
0.1
2.5
0.1
1.2
0.2
0.5
1.6
-0.2
2.3
0.7
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.9
-2.3
1.6
0.1
39.1
49.2
38.8
50.4
39.4
50.5
37.5
51.7
36.9
50.7
36.0
50.1
34.9
49.2
33.6
48.2
32.5
47.0
0.1
0.3
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-0.3
-0.7
-0.4
(1) Including electricity and steam transmission/distributiom losses and own consumption
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
97
APPENDIX 2
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
710044
210887
117986
132777
183326
65069
22387
39357
67
153
3104
742066
137429
159738
167045
204557
73297
25130
44216
350
242
3358
760438
99317
161346
190481
222846
86447
27518
53319
1912
383
3316
714865
87209
122484
171437
232411
101324
22849
66495
6037
771
5173
672119
73505
96599
151931
224281
125802
25372
80984
12125
2011
5311
608418
67442
68747
112464
220515
139251
24934
88242
16838
3871
5365
556095
60088
44680
98532
192262
160533
25432
101313
22623
5667
5498
524806
57355
36030
82839
172215
176367
26073
111478
26161
6907
5749
516477
54489
32690
70056
168397
190846
26397
121978
28411
7738
6320
0.7
-7.3
3.2
3.7
2.0
2.9
2.1
3.1
39.8
9.6
0.7
-1.2
-3.0
-5.0
-2.2
0.1
3.8
-0.8
4.3
20.3
18.0
4.8
-1.9
-2.0
-7.4
-4.2
-1.5
2.5
0.0
2.3
6.4
10.9
0.3
-0.7
-1.0
-3.1
-3.4
-1.3
1.7
0.4
1.9
2.3
3.2
1.4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
641811
87915
458925
435511
23414
92497
2333
652358
94527
446591
434626
11964
109277
1619
742281
110284
472409
455447
16963
155340
3644
878304
131424
527899
512533
15366
212897
3904
946134
143247
551795
542383
9412
244416
3613
1064040
164329
590672
581601
9071
301942
3298
1134699
176798
621193
612166
9027
328587
3410
1177414
185267
633748
625273
8474
348613
4391
1182924
178997
636077
629688
6389
356845
4913
1.5
2.3
0.3
0.4
-3.2
5.3
4.6
2.5
2.6
1.6
1.8
-5.7
4.6
-0.1
1.8
2.1
1.2
1.2
-0.4
3.0
-0.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
-3.4
0.8
3.7
1321155 1367802 1457344

302139
237010
216152
544483
575817
588382
223442
275139
339268
183326
204557
222846
2335
1619
3644
65432
73659
87052
1536642
216615
595668
384539
232411
3904
103504
1566088
216752
596228
396347
224281
3613
128866
1618065 1634271
231770
236887
605025
609351
414405
427118
220515
192262
3298
3410
143051
165244
1643811
242622
611368
431452
172215
4391
181762
1639605
233486
608971
426900
168397
4913
196938
1.0
-3.3
0.8
4.3
2.0
4.6
2.9
0.7
0.0
0.1
1.6
0.1
-0.1
4.0
0.4
0.9
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-0.6
2.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-1.3
3.7
1.8
14.8
37.2
26.2
10.5
11.1
14.2
37.1
26.0
10.3
12.0
1.9
1.8
2.7
1.7
1.8
0.1
2.5
2.5
1.2
-1.5
2.6
1.9
0.6
-0.5
1.4
0.7
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
22.9
41.2
16.9
13.9
5.0
17.3
42.1
20.1
15.0
5.4
14.8
40.4
23.3
15.3
6.0
14.1
38.8
25.0
15.1
6.7
13.8
38.1
25.3
14.3
8.2
2140839 2311112
720059
810120
261100
296301
1159679 1204691
2575134
863759
342326
1369049
2816401
900819
337364
1578218
3070076
869460
439733
1760882
14.3
37.4
25.6
13.6
8.8
14.5
37.3
26.1
11.8
10.1
3285018 3452540 3576832 3656001

857979
748453
676539
710788
492374
570456
623847
658203
1934665 2133630 2276446 2287010

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
271921
182496
42108
39116
5427
2774
0
272420
161427
43423
55096
9482
2992
0
298671
155648
34135
91594
14356
2939
0
337024
160320
26192
120654
25213
4645
0
328494
162645
16543
119017
25483
4806
0
350073
176919
13661
129475
25133
4884
0
372069
182823
12265
138507
33442
5032
0
384556
190392
11089
138949
38826
5301
0
374905
182413
10156
130926
45509
5900
0
0.9
-1.6
-2.1
8.9
10.2
0.6
1.0
0.4
-7.0
2.7
5.9
5.0
1.3
1.2
-2.9
1.5
2.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
-1.9
-0.6
3.1
1.6

Refineries
District heating
Others
701511
594671
2
10466
96372
701901
635325
191
8384
58001
725616
665309
624
8998
50684
731919
676015
3131
7380
45393
737245
670517
13907
10543
42277
754590
682428
21576
10450
40136
764290
688461
28655
9477
37697
769533
692178
33205
9229
34921
771710
692360
36755
9743
32851
0.3
1.1
80.0
-1.5
-6.2
0.2
0.1
36.4
1.6
-1.8
0.4
0.3
7.5
-1.1
-1.1
0.1
0.1
2.5
0.3
-1.4
63939
68576
69751
73457
68104
66663
66494
66865
66336
0.9
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
Non-Energy Uses
83968
93632
95343
96319
99015
101757
104068
105351
106109
1.3
0.4
0.5
0.2
860751
895842
958535
1002418
1053955
1099780
1128578
1149451
1161512
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.3
265938
178806
87132
216656
125799
252358
258209
168576
89632
227857
134927
274849
272431
176390
96042
240106
135542
310456
273037
173888
99150
257875
147088
324418
282907
178924
103983
267960
157194
345894
293812
184226
109587
274234
165431
366304
300234
186512
113722
277816
169392
381135
305684
187901
117784
279886
171691
392190
309137
188039
121099
281081
172599
398694
0.2
-0.1
1.0
1.0
0.7
2.1
0.4
0.1
0.8
1.1
1.5
1.1
0.6
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.5
82426
394480
178720
155929
16597
32598
49060
417161
208282
169271
19840
32229
38615
435313
233088
191711
22456
37353
33595
442888
250085
210139
24231
41480
33371
453621
258237
231009
24717
53000
34578
464891
263785
248964
25882
61680
35207
470512
265621
261965
27482
67791
33946
474945
267867
271385
27532
73776
32423
474500
271201
277587
27837
77964
-7.3
1.0
2.7
2.1
3.1
1.4
-1.4
0.4
1.0
1.9
1.0
3.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.3
1.1
2.5
-0.8
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.1
1.4
3091.7
998.4
130.8
581.2
414.6
232.8
733.8
3040.7
939.7
144.1
527.7
402.9
226.2
800.1
3145.0
974.0
146.0
512.5
406.8
200.0
905.8
3253.8
1031.8
152.6
494.1
420.2
212.0
943.0
3264.3
1007.0
136.4
503.3
420.4
214.5
982.7
3387.2
1079.7
136.0
510.1
419.1
216.7
1025.5
3446.2
1118.2
134.2
509.8
416.7
213.5
1053.8
3483.2
1147.1
130.8
504.2
414.1
210.7
1076.4
3428.9
1096.7
127.4
497.2
412.9
208.2
1086.4
0.2
-0.2
1.1
-1.3
-0.2
-1.5
2.1
0.4
0.3
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.5
1.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.3
100.0
98.4
101.7
105.2
105.6
109.6
111.5
112.7
110.9
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
98
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
363.493
7631.5
173.1
3.63
5890
2.34
8.51
405.1
Import Dependency %
47.4
Industry
Residential
Transport
370.669
8253.2
165.7
3.69
6235
2.22
8.20
368.4
46.5
375.531
9503.7
153.3
3.88
6857
2.16
8.37
330.9
49.5
385.566
10287.7
149.4
3.99
7305
2.12
8.44
316.3
55.4
390.768
11598.2
135.0
4.01
7857
2.08
8.35
281.5
58.5
394.726
13013.4
124.3
4.10
8322
2.09
8.58
260.3
63.6
397.458
14402.8
113.5
4.11
8687
2.11
8.67
239.3
67.1
398.780
15727.0
104.5
4.12
8969
2.12
8.73
221.5
69.2
398.737
16891.5
97.1
4.11
9169
2.09
8.60
203.0
69.6
0.3
2.2
-1.2
0.7
1.5
-0.8
-0.2
-2.0
0.0
0.4
2.0
-1.3
0.3
1.4
-0.3
0.0
-1.6
0.0
0.2
2.2
-1.7
0.3
1.0
0.1
0.4
-1.6
0.0
0.0
1.6
-1.5
0.0
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-1.6
0.0
114.3
112.0
119.0
101.2
107.6
109.6
116.4
101.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
96.2
98.7
98.5
96.5
89.6
92.1
92.8
91.3
83.4
84.9
86.5
86.2
77.3
78.4
79.7
81.0
72.4
72.8
73.7
76.3
68.6
68.3
68.8
72.3
-1.3
-1.1
-1.7
-0.1
-1.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.9
-1.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.1
0.42
2.28
2.19
1.91
1.85
2.91
0.37
2.18
2.04
1.77
1.68
2.91
0.34
2.11
1.88
1.69
1.48
2.92
0.33
2.06
1.81
1.63
1.44
2.91
0.30
2.01
1.78
1.57
1.36
2.84
0.30
1.97
1.74
1.53
1.31
2.80
0.29
1.94
1.70
1.50
1.26
2.76
0.29
1.92
1.65
1.48
1.23
2.74
0.27
1.90
1.61
1.47
1.21
2.72
-2.1
-0.8
-1.5
-1.2
-2.2
0.0
-1.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
579013
123038
106654
93714
12769
171
0
349322
99418
136506
136206
65439
10373
0
798
634099
121329
136808
94435
40581
1792
0
375962
108403
133653
165636
61289
14396
0
988
720614
114686
169340
96001
69331
3768
240
436588
105488
131930
220465
61712
21483
0
998
741334
112410
192284
97029
88842
6097
317
436640
115231
128775
237514
45041
24310
0
1001
777197
98444
223879
97848
115957
8886
1189
454874
131984
125567
259883
34094
34300
0
1030
806448
80379
243731
98213
131693
12092
1733
482338
139063
135225
279166
28929
37983
0
1036
832895
83320
255443
98613
139350
15077
2403
494132
139719
131846
289539
28405
43082
0
1261
2.2
-0.7
4.7
0.2
18.4
36.2
2.3
0.6
-0.3
4.9
-0.6
7.6
0.8
-1.5
2.8
0.2
5.3
9.0
17.4
0.4
2.3
-0.5
1.7
-5.8
4.8
0.7
-1.7
1.3
0.1
1.9
5.4
7.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
1.1
-1.8
2.3
2.3
0.3
2.0
48.3
48.2
46.5
48.5
48.6
48.3
47.8
39.4
11.9
49.1
33.5
15.5
40.3
12.1
47.6
32.0
15.6
46.1
15.7
46.8
28.3
18.5
47.5
17.1
45.3
26.1
19.2
49.3
20.0
43.6
21.7
21.9
50.9
20.8
42.5
18.9
23.6
52.5
20.9
44.5
19.4
25.0
7.8
0.2
8.3
1.2
10.3
4.0
11.2
5.9
12.6
7.6
13.7
8.7
14.7
9.6
5224.8
406.4
3986.1
361.0
422.6
48.6
5580.0
425.3
4243.2
381.1
482.2
48.1
6021.8
436.3
4553.2
403.5
580.2
48.6
6472.3
451.3
4836.7
439.5
695.5
49.3
6892.5
468.9
5082.8
479.4
810.9
50.5
7277.7
484.1
5299.6
525.7
916.5
51.8
7601.1
496.6
5469.5
573.0
1009.3
52.8
1.4
0.7
1.3
1.1
3.2
0.0
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.7
3.4
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.7
1.8
2.2
0.4

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4173.6
371.3
3195.3
317.8
234.2
55.0
4699.3
382.0
3631.4
321.5
310.1
54.3
2.3
0.9
2.2
1.3
6.1
-1.2
11482
12678
13913
14472
15410
16397
17341
18250
19063
1.9
1.0
1.2
1.0

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1440.4
935.7
254.9
249.8
1605.4
1124.1
221.6
259.7
1833.3
1317.4
249.4
266.4
1996.7
1478.1
251.2
267.4
2183.4
1638.8
265.9
278.6
2364.7
1785.0
285.5
294.2
2528.2
1919.0
299.8
309.4
2669.4
2037.0
313.1
319.3
2779.5
2127.2
324.6
327.7
2.4
3.5
-0.2
0.6
1.8
2.2
0.6
0.4
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.6

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
189
195
193
194
188
182
176
170
165
0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.6
252358
3492
138894
69233
6953
27367
6419
274849
3473
148322
76614
7370
32363
6707
310456
3542
160129
89688
7855
43881
5362
324418
3485
158854
100755
8107
47937
5279
345894
3441
163769
108937
8297
55967
5481
366304
3470
167648
117521
8334
63634
5696
381135
3529
169176
124486
7980
70087
5877
392190
3543
168776
130504
7427
76023
5917
398694
3506
167361
134125
6274
81520
5906
2.1
0.1
1.4
2.6
1.2
4.8
-1.8
1.1
-0.3
0.2
2.0
0.5
2.5
0.2
1.0
0.3
0.3
1.3
-0.4
2.3
0.7
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.7
-2.4
1.5
0.0
41.7
54.4
40.2
53.7
40.6
53.8
38.5
55.0
37.8
54.2
36.9
53.9
35.8
53.2
34.7
52.4
33.7
51.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.4
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
99
APPENDIX 2
NM12: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
222967
155030
10824
29670
19264
8179
2713
5380
0
0
86
204232
140495
10318
21920
18471
13028
2924
9987
0
31
86
177130
114376
10319
17077
20914
14443
2856
11455
1
35
96
181528
109242
10509
16585
24949
20244
3545
16408
24
46
221
161694
91447
8067
16280
20936
24964
3278
20980
316
139
251
161805
84924
8420
16535
23200
28727
3400
24238
533
297
259
168664
81676
8431
16402
29210
32944
3498
27916
698
575
258
173679
76317
8279
15467
36735
36881
3604
31396
869
763
248
174214
71319
8130
14705
38006
42053
3785
36063
1026
933
246
-2.3
-3.0
-0.5
-5.4
0.8
5.9
0.5
7.8
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
106866
-8626
71880
68029
3851
42624
988
78346
-15344
57858
53853
4004
36012
-111
76593
-11709
53252
51871
1381
37192
-1957
96994
-4723
61712
61780
-68
43931
-2931
127803
10068
71223
69913
1310
49811
-2117
149427
17456
79015
77549
1466
56105
-1832
166428
23289
85611
84107
1503
61377
-2369
180969
27252
90230
88600
1630
68490
-3465
192857
30837
93110
91271
1839
74604
-3989

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
328836
147966
80981
71463
19264
988
8172
282860
127242
66186
58130
18471
-111
12943
254611
105238
62017
54149
20914
-1957
14250
274764
103450
69846
60266
24949
-2931
19185
288014
101516
77807
66091
20936
-2117
23780
309574
102379
85776
72640
23200
-1832
27410
333298
104965
92248
77779
29210
-2369
31465
352751
103569
96611
83957
36735
-3465
35344
365108
102156
99276
89310
38006
-3989
40349
45.0
24.6
21.7
5.9
2.5
45.0
23.4
20.6
6.5
4.6
41.3
24.4
21.3
8.2
5.6
37.7
25.4
21.9
9.1
7.0
35.2
27.0
22.9
7.3
8.3
33.1
27.7
23.5
7.5
8.9
31.5
27.7
23.3
8.8
9.4
29.4
27.4
23.8
10.4
10.0
28.0
27.2
24.5
10.4
11.1

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
421978
74659
31548
315771
401046
71542
34005
295499
416896
81063
33219
302614
458958
96701
41496
320762
498244
81651
41796
374797
554391
90730
45768
417892
625698
117123
48866
459709
696164
153139
52180
490845

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
107667
77417
12253
17564
434
0
0
93342
72320
7952
12744
327
0
0
84095
67466
5037
10979
613
0
0
86159
68824
3307
12603
1424
0
0
87354
69818
1814
13440
2281
0
0
89930
71321
1278
15265
2066
0
0
94050
74652
1100
15307
2991
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
133634
79138
0
22948
31548
107083
64027
11
14967
28078
93235
62142
0
10304
20789
102287
73297
75
8798
20117
106388
80387
1323
9199
15480
114083
88592
2300
8769
14423
18022
19630
17832
20484
22617
Non-Energy Uses
12100
11687
13792
15387
17052
209933
171039
153647
164462
101567
57918
43649
47891
33393
27082
67560
45277
22284
51859
26712
24908
52404
35874
16530
47149
25421
28673
48299
48081
49152
28129
32147
4125
36547
37896
37714
24878
25186
8819

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
955.2
470.3
23.3
220.5
93.1
71.8
76.2
100.0
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
1.1
-0.9
-2.2
-2.4
-0.5
0.0
5.6
1.4
6.2
80.5
14.6
10.1
0.4
-1.1
0.4
0.1
3.4
2.8
0.7
2.9
8.3
15.3
0.3
0.3
-1.3
-0.4
-1.1
2.7
2.5
0.8
2.6
3.9
5.0
-0.4
-3.3
5.3
-3.0
-2.7
-9.7
-1.4
3.0
3.0
-0.5
3.0
2.7
8.7
1.9
1.9
1.4
2.1
1.5
2.8
0.8
0.8
2.0
2.0
-2.5
-3.4
-2.6
-2.7
0.8
1.2
-0.4
2.3
2.0
0.0
1.5
0.3
1.7
1.6
3.4
0.9
-0.3
0.7
1.4
2.7
5.7
5.3
2.8
2.5
752032
161474
56226
534331
-0.1
0.8
0.5
-0.4
1.8
0.1
2.3
2.2
2.3
3.7
1.6
2.1
1.9
3.3
1.4
1.5
95543
73686
516
16827
4515
0
0
98794
74292
366
17604
6532
0
0
-2.4
-1.4
-8.5
-4.6
3.5
0.4
0.3
-9.7
2.0
14.0
0.7
0.7
-4.9
1.3
2.7
0.5
0.0
-10.4
1.4
8.1
121480
95279
3612
8973
13616
126224
99668
4701
9174
12681
128819
102162
5672
9160
11826
-3.5
-2.4
1.3
2.6
-7.7
-4.1
-1.1
-2.9
1.3
1.7
10.6
-0.2
-1.3
0.6
0.7
4.6
0.2
-1.4
23810
25045
26266
26957
-0.1
2.4
1.0
0.7
19238
21451
23468
25105
1.3
2.1
2.3
1.6
183085
202256
219229
233304
244169
-3.1
1.8
1.8
1.1
51456
35439
16017
49138
26581
37287
55601
37498
18103
52577
29885
45021
61536
40692
20845
55478
33240
52000
67457
43824
23633
58189
36076
57507
72683
46471
26211
60360
38351
61910
77242
48809
28432
62263
40278
64385
-6.4
-4.7
-9.3
-0.2
-2.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.9
1.1
1.6
4.6
2.0
1.6
2.7
1.0
1.9
2.5
1.4
1.1
1.9
0.7
1.1
1.1
23166
41853
34418
25444
18532
10233
19880
49652
37113
27362
17102
13353
21136
56786
40892
31646
16695
15930
20725
63871
45051
36288
17512
18808
20234
69268
48595
41163
18672
21298
19992
73336
51745
45479
19828
22923
18905
75259
55176
49219
20548
25061
-7.1
-1.4
-3.5
-1.0
-5.4
9.5
-0.9
3.1
1.7
2.2
-1.0
4.5
-0.4
2.0
1.7
2.7
1.1
2.9
-0.7
0.8
1.3
1.8
1.0
1.6
778.8
395.7
28.4
156.5
79.5
48.6
70.2
675.8
345.6
27.1
119.9
59.3
42.0
81.8
693.2
343.1
31.7
105.3
62.9
42.6
107.6
732.3
344.0
35.1
113.8
66.9
45.1
127.5
769.6
351.1
36.2
120.3
67.9
48.4
145.7
806.3
364.5
37.3
127.5
68.3
49.9
158.8
823.3
362.4
38.3
133.3
69.2
51.0
168.9
834.8
365.8
37.3
136.1
70.4
51.8
173.4
-3.4
-3.0
1.5
-5.9
-4.4
-5.2
0.7
0.8
0.0
2.6
-0.5
1.2
0.7
4.5
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.2
1.0
2.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.9
81.5
70.7
72.6
76.7
80.6
84.4
86.2
87.4
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
100
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
NM12: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
106.896
477.2
689.1
3.08
3948
2.90
8.94
2001.6
Import Dependency %
32.4
Industry
Residential
Transport
105.824
459.2
616.0
2.67
3790
2.75
7.36
1696.1
27.6
104.975
542.4
469.4
2.43
3971
2.65
6.44
1245.9
30.0
103.525
661.5
415.4
2.65
4433
2.52
6.70
1047.8
35.1
102.178
831.8
346.3
2.82
4876
2.54
7.17
880.4
44.1
100.627
1045.8
296.0
3.08
5509
2.49
7.65
735.8
48.0
98.951
1284.1
259.6
3.37
6323
2.42
8.15
628.0
49.7
97.489
1538.7
229.2
3.62
7141
2.33
8.45
535.1
51.0
96.047
1795.5
203.3
3.80
7830
2.29
8.69
465.0
52.5
-0.2
1.3
-3.8
-2.3
0.1
-0.9
-3.2
-4.6
0.0
-0.3
4.4
-3.0
1.5
2.1
-0.4
1.1
-3.4
0.0
-0.3
4.4
-2.8
1.8
2.6
-0.5
1.3
-3.3
0.0
-0.3
3.4
-2.4
1.2
2.2
-0.6
0.6
-3.0
0.0
214.9
123.8
155.2
107.4
172.0
132.7
119.8
102.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
76.9
76.4
86.9
106.6
64.2
65.4
78.4
102.4
56.4
55.1
69.6
94.1
50.6
47.1
61.4
84.7
46.1
40.7
54.1
76.1
43.0
35.7
48.1
67.8
-7.4
-2.1
-4.3
-0.7
-4.3
-4.2
-2.4
0.2
-2.4
-3.2
-2.4
-1.9
-1.6
-2.7
-2.4
-2.2
0.55
2.20
2.17
1.94
2.15
2.81
0.52
2.07
2.32
1.53
1.82
2.82
0.51
1.97
2.29
1.26
1.65
2.85
0.48
1.94
2.05
1.28
1.60
2.89
0.45
1.93
2.05
1.27
1.51
2.83
0.42
1.89
1.95
1.22
1.45
2.80
0.40
1.84
1.89
1.17
1.38
2.76
0.36
1.81
1.83
1.15
1.33
2.73
0.35
1.77
1.76
1.13
1.29
2.69
-0.9
-1.1
0.5
-4.3
-2.6
0.1
-1.1
-0.2
-1.1
0.1
-0.9
-0.1
-1.3
-0.4
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.3
-1.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.2
101850
12768
13942
13925
17
1
0
75140
24044
54752
13532
6420
437
0
0
105418
12857
15094
14849
240
5
0
77466
25281
55042
15395
6209
820
0
0
114686
10808
17372
15354
2004
14
0
86506
21799
55945
23052
6488
1021
0
0
120290
11244
19451
16010
3396
46
0
89595
23277
59668
23586
5148
1193
0
0
124031
14245
20965
16454
4418
93
0
88821
26335
60706
21953
4230
1933
0
0
127255
18202
22395
16673
5538
184
0
86658
28521
56291
22121
2506
5741
0
0
133223
19124
23814
16907
6590
317
0
90285
30330
56499
23855
2313
7619
0
0
1.2
-1.7
2.2
1.0
61.3
32.7
0.8
2.8
1.9
0.7
8.2
20.5
0.7
3.0
1.3
0.3
4.1
13.1
1.4
-1.0
0.2
5.5
0.1
8.9
0.3
1.9
0.8
-0.5
-4.2
6.6
0.2
1.4
-0.7
0.8
-5.9
14.7
42.5
45.4
46.2
49.3
54.0
58.6
60.3
30.9
18.0
28.0
19.4
8.6
32.0
17.0
31.7
21.1
10.6
36.9
22.6
27.3
16.4
11.0
40.0
22.5
27.1
16.4
10.8
42.0
22.3
29.4
18.7
10.7
44.2
23.2
33.0
22.0
11.0
46.5
22.2
33.5
21.5
12.0
8.7
0.0
10.5
0.2
11.4
2.8
12.1
4.2
12.8
6.0
13.7
7.3
14.8
8.6
594.9
107.5
389.7
77.5
19.3
0.9
665.4
103.7
471.2
65.7
24.0
0.8
762.0
104.1
561.7
64.7
30.7
0.8
877.8
106.2
661.9
69.8
39.0
0.9
1004.7
111.2
766.5
76.8
49.2
0.9
1135.2
116.3
872.1
85.8
59.9
1.0
1259.7
120.8
971.9
94.7
71.2
1.0
2.5
-0.3
3.7
-1.8
4.7
-0.9
2.8
0.7
3.2
1.7
4.8
1.4
2.3
0.8
2.4
2.1
3.8
1.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
610.9
184.4
263.9
147.0
13.7
2.0
522.5
116.3
298.7
90.5
15.8
1.1
-0.3
-5.2
4.0
-6.2
3.5
-7.8
5715
4937
5668
6428
7457
8723
10153
11644
13116
-0.1
2.8
3.1
2.6

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
438.4
161.2
269.8
7.4
323.5
155.2
163.4
4.9
341.6
190.1
146.6
4.9
467.2
311.9
142.7
12.6
586.3
409.5
161.2
15.6
696.6
493.9
184.0
18.7
793.3
566.6
204.8
22.0
876.9
629.6
222.1
25.1
937.8
675.8
234.3
27.6
-2.5
1.7
-5.9
-4.0
5.6
8.0
1.0
12.3
3.1
3.3
2.4
3.5
1.7
1.8
1.4
2.3

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
919
705
630
706
705
666
618
570
522
-3.7
1.1
-1.3
-1.7
27082
1724
9232
11408
2652
1580
486
24908
1065
10761
9218
2039
1651
174
28673
922
14607
9662
1854
1487
141
37287
831
16867
16208
1498
1807
77
45021
815
19624
20671
1552
2267
93
52000
805
22121
24519
1670
2776
109
57507
806
24166
27355
1708
3345
126
61910
796
25878
29556
1660
3878
142
64385
773
26486
31176
1411
4384
155
0.6
-6.1
4.7
-1.6
-3.5
-0.6
-11.6
4.6
-1.2
3.0
7.9
-1.8
4.3
-4.1
2.5
-0.1
2.1
2.8
1.0
4.0
3.1
1.1
-0.4
0.9
1.3
-1.9
2.7
2.1
21.3
32.0
26.6
34.1
29.2
33.1
29.7
37.5
30.1
37.6
29.6
37.4
28.4
36.5
27.1
35.5
25.3
34.7
3.2
0.3
0.3
1.3
-0.6
-0.3
-1.2
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
101
APPENDIX 2
Austria: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
8154
644
1245
1097
0
5168
2709
2440
0
15
4
8638
305
1071
1261
0
6001
3187
2775
0
36
3
9551
293
1071
1533
0
6654
3598
2973
6
64
14
9780
0
954
1403
0
7422
3085
4097
114
92
35
10427
16
850
1446
0
8115
3252
4426
267
162
7
10273
18
620
1270
0
8365
2998
4817
324
217
9
9574
18
280
400
0
8876
3297
4913
388
265
12
9939
18
230
385
0
9305
3297
5291
406
296
14
10275
18
190
386
0
9681
3297
5661
394
312
16
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
17086
3112
9521
7878
1643
4443
-40
17769
2543
10012
8068
1944
5404
-212
18853
3064
10703
7704
3000
5253
-118
24392
3958
13028
7964
5064
7288
229
24665
3960
13453
8369
5084
7070
301
26681
4296
13918
8743
5175
8399
196
28302
4781
13953
8985
4969
9573
128
28365
5309
13893
8999
4894
9223
83

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
24986
4042
10596
5184
0
-40
5204
26722
3336
11196
6374
0
-212
6027
28524
3637
11882
6519
0
-118
6605
33980
4050
14125
8263
0
229
7312
35092
3976
14303
8517
0
301
7995
36954
4314
14538
9669
0
196
8235
37876
4799
14233
9973
0
128
8743
16.2
42.4
20.7
0.0
20.8
12.5
41.9
23.9
0.0
22.6
12.7
41.7
22.9
0.0
23.2
11.9
41.6
24.3
0.0
21.5
11.3
40.8
24.3
0.0
22.8
11.7
39.3
26.2
0.0
22.3
49287
0
31503
17784
55169
0
37062
18107
60150
0
41902
18248
62969
0
37209
25759
66002
0
40964
25038
4011
1510
488
1776
237
0
0
4275
1055
489
2276
455
0
0
3925
1236
287
1974
428
0
0
5469
1510
270
2901
786
2
0
11443
9123
2
347
1971
11404
9170
5
438
1790
11250
8765
9
566
1910
11743
9080
42
612
2009
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
1.6
-7.6
-1.5
3.4
0.9
-25.5
-2.3
-0.6
-0.8
1.5
-10.5
-12.1
0.7
0.0
-3.8
-0.4
2.6
2.9
2.0
15.7
14.2
2.0
-1.0
4.1
46.8
9.8
-6.6
0.9
0.1
1.0
3.8
5.0
6.0
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.2
1.6
2.9
28384
5593
13628
8939
4689
9232
84
1.0
-0.2
1.2
-0.2
6.2
1.7
2.7
2.6
2.3
0.8
5.4
3.0
1.4
1.9
0.4
0.7
-0.2
3.1
-8.2
0.0
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-4.1
38304
5327
14123
9608
0
83
9162
38658
5611
13818
9618
0
84
9528
1.3
-1.1
1.2
2.3
2.1
0.9
1.9
2.7
0.8
1.9
0.0
1.6
0.2
1.6
-0.3
-0.4
2.4
1.9
-8.2
0.9
-4.1
0.9
12.7
37.6
26.3
0.0
23.1
13.9
36.9
25.1
0.0
23.9
14.5
35.7
24.9
0.0
24.6
72492
0
38710
33781
78344
0
43015
35330
83032
0
43304
39728
85871
0
43269
42602
2.0
0.9
1.7
0.9
2.9
0.3
-0.2
3.2
0.5
3.5
0.1
1.9
4073
1325
531
1936
278
3
0
5641
1641
547
3065
384
4
0
5846
2172
315
2840
513
6
0
6290
2711
347
2538
686
8
0
6510
2934
326
2407
833
10
0
-0.2
-2.0
-5.2
1.1
6.1
0.4
0.7
6.4
-0.2
-4.2
3.7
5.1
-5.1
3.9
6.3
9.1
1.1
3.1
0.3
-1.6
5.0
5.0
12792
9221
323
1157
2091
12668
9364
492
825
1987
12581
9265
704
713
1899
12393
9229
865
477
1822
12394
9129
1044
432
1789
-0.2
-0.4
17.5
5.0
-0.3
1.3
0.5
43.5
7.4
0.9
-0.2
0.0
8.1
-4.7
-1.0
-0.2
-0.1
4.0
-4.9
-0.6
1639
1703
1750
2134
1967
1946
1913
1892
1856
0.7
1.2
-0.3
-0.3
Non-Energy Uses
1401
1145
1386
1381
1411
1465
1515
1557
1590
-0.1
0.2
0.7
0.5
19057
20919
22913
27309
29327
30706
31646
32184
32510
1.9
2.5
0.8
0.3
6153
4048
2105
5755
2544
4603
6474
4038
2436
6222
3062
5161
7528
4982
2546
6042
3304
6038
8825
5533
3293
6548
3942
7994
9356
5766
3590
6938
4397
8635
9654
5853
3801
7262
4767
9023
9795
5859
3936
7520
4974
9356
9896
5839
4056
7649
5076
9564
9954
5790
4164
7761
5115
9679
2.0
2.1
1.9
0.5
2.6
2.7
2.2
1.5
3.5
1.4
2.9
3.6
0.5
0.2
0.9
0.8
1.2
0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
1718
7896
2968
3669
614
2192
1535
8728
3607
3953
848
2248
1415
9402
4254
4474
1052
2316
1458
11774
4936
4884
1260
2996
1459
11998
5750
5291
1388
3441
1438
12223
5878
5723
1493
3951
1380
12223
6222
6106
1564
4151
1338
12220
6177
6384
1580
4484
1257
12110
6318
6584
1541
4700
-1.9
1.8
3.7
2.0
5.5
0.6
0.3
2.5
3.1
1.7
2.8
4.0
-0.6
0.2
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.9
-0.9
-0.1
0.2
0.8
-0.2
1.3
55.2
12.8
3.8
12.7
9.8
3.4
12.7
58.0
12.1
4.0
13.6
9.7
4.0
14.6
61.0
11.6
4.2
15.5
8.8
3.7
17.2
73.7
15.0
4.6
17.5
9.0
4.5
23.1
74.3
13.2
4.4
18.4
9.0
4.9
24.3
78.9
17.0
4.4
18.3
9.0
5.2
25.1
80.5
18.2
4.3
18.4
9.0
5.0
25.5
81.4
19.6
4.1
18.0
9.0
4.8
25.8
81.4
20.1
4.0
17.8
9.1
4.7
25.7
1.0
-1.0
1.0
2.0
-1.1
0.8
3.1
2.0
1.3
0.4
1.7
0.2
2.9
3.5
0.8
3.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
1.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.1
-0.6
0.0
100.0
105.2
110.5
133.6
134.7
143.1
146.0
147.5
147.5
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
102
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Austria: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
7.645
177.3
140.9
3.27
6447
2.21
7.21
311.1
68.4
7.943
197.3
135.4
3.36
6945
2.17
7.31
294.1
66.5
8.002
228.1
125.1
3.56
7517
2.14
7.62
267.3
66.1
8.207
245.1
138.6
4.14
7673
2.17
8.98
300.6
71.8
8.307
277.3
126.5
4.22
7946
2.12
8.94
267.9
70.3
8.358
306.2
120.7
4.42
8674
2.14
9.45
257.8
72.2
8.441
335.2
113.0
4.49
9281
2.13
9.54
240.2
74.7
8.501
363.1
105.5
4.51
9768
2.12
9.57
224.0
74.1
8.520
386.5
100.0
4.54
10079
2.10
9.55
210.5
73.4
0.5
2.6
-1.2
0.9
1.5
-0.3
0.5
-1.5
0.0
0.4
2.0
0.1
1.7
0.6
-0.1
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.9
-1.1
0.6
1.6
0.0
0.6
-1.1
0.0
0.1
1.4
-1.2
0.1
0.8
-0.1
0.0
-1.3
0.0
106.4
117.7
98.7
98.1
106.5
114.7
105.3
98.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.2
102.2
111.0
123.2
99.9
96.1
109.1
117.6
92.8
91.5
106.8
111.3
85.7
86.8
101.5
105.4
79.7
81.8
95.4
99.5
75.3
78.2
90.3
94.6
-0.6
-1.6
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.4
0.9
1.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
-1.3
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
0.22
2.03
2.06
1.71
1.34
2.75
0.18
2.00
2.10
1.55
1.32
2.82
0.16
1.97
2.06
1.46
1.12
2.85
0.19
1.98
1.98
1.37
1.15
2.89
0.16
1.93
1.97
1.30
1.12
2.82
0.19
1.87
1.89
1.24
1.08
2.78
0.19
1.83
1.88
1.20
1.01
2.73
0.19
1.79
1.82
1.18
0.95
2.70
0.19
1.76
1.79
1.17
0.92
2.65
-3.4
-0.3
0.0
-1.6
-1.8
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-1.1
0.0
-0.1
1.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.8
-1.0
-0.3
0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-0.9
-0.3
16771
0
10792
10709
77
7
0
5978
3067
1600
2916
1167
295
0
0
17685
0
11287
10446
817
24
0
6397
3657
1587
3267
1158
384
0
1
20805
0
12018
10589
1368
61
0
8787
3952
1460
5187
1675
464
0
1
22406
0
12985
11169
1677
139
0
9421
4662
1460
6090
1428
443
0
1
23554
0
14123
11691
2171
261
0
9431
5168
1547
5983
915
984
0
2
24722
0
14552
11872
2274
406
0
10169
5269
1602
6629
770
1166
0
2
25155
0
15282
12004
2708
570
0
9873
5614
1874
6166
585
1246
0
3
2.2
1.2
0.7
1.1
-0.1
33.3
24.7
1.6
1.0
4.7
15.6
0.8
0.3
2.2
8.1
3.9
2.6
-0.9
5.9
3.7
4.6
0.7
2.7
0.6
1.4
-5.9
7.8
0.5
0.8
1.9
0.3
-4.4
2.4
5.2
3.7
39.8
38.3
34.6
35.6
36.7
36.9
37.5
40.0
12.3
72.7
0.0
72.7
40.5
20.6
65.3
0.0
65.3
52.9
26.7
67.3
0.0
67.3
51.5
31.9
58.8
0.0
58.8
52.0
32.6
61.1
0.0
61.1
54.3
35.4
59.5
0.0
59.5
56.3
36.2
58.3
0.0
58.3
26.8
0.2
24.2
0.6
25.1
3.4
24.7
5.1
26.1
7.0
26.8
8.6
27.5
10.3
1.2
0.7
0.9
1.4
3.8
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.6
1.0
3.1
0.7

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
95.0
14.2
65.2
11.5
4.1
0.1
106.8
14.8
73.8
12.7
5.4
0.1
114.6
14.8
81.3
11.8
6.6
0.0
120.6
15.1
85.8
12.3
7.3
0.0
131.3
15.8
93.2
13.2
8.9
0.0
139.3
16.4
97.8
14.3
10.9
0.0
147.2
17.0
101.9
15.2
13.0
0.0
154.4
17.5
105.4
16.1
15.4
0.0
160.1
17.7
107.7
16.8
17.7
0.0
1.9
0.4
2.2
0.3
5.0
-2.7
1.4
0.6
1.4
1.1
3.1
-0.4
12432
13451
14321
14697
15802
16670
17438
18169
18791
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.7
34.1
20.3
12.2
1.7
41.7
26.5
13.2
2.0
54.2
35.1
16.6
2.4
55.9
37.0
17.1
1.8
59.2
39.4
18.1
1.8
63.7
42.1
19.7
1.9
68.2
45.0
21.2
2.1
72.8
47.9
22.7
2.2
76.8
50.5
24.1
2.2
4.7
5.6
3.2
3.9
0.9
1.1
0.8
-3.0
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.3
0.7
192
212
237
228
214
208
204
201
199
2.1
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4603
80
2499
1350
357
310
7
5161
83
2643
1675
292
461
6
6038
80
2865
2167
333
586
6
7994
107
3890
3004
310
675
9
8635
110
4195
3187
320
814
9
9023
110
4235
3384
333
950
10
9356
111
4250
3585
332
1068
10
9564
107
4183
3754
327
1183
11
9679
101
4038
3936
306
1286
11
2.7
-0.1
1.4
4.8
-0.7
6.6
-1.5
3.6
3.3
3.9
3.9
-0.4
3.3
4.3
0.8
0.1
0.1
1.2
0.4
2.8
1.2
0.3
-1.0
-0.5
0.9
-0.8
1.9
0.6

30.7
49.4
30.1
46.6
31.1
45.7
39.0
59.0
39.2
58.9
38.2
58.1
37.1
57.1
35.6
55.8
34.1
55.0
0.1
-0.8
2.4
2.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.8
-0.4
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
103
APPENDIX 2
Belgium: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
12529
1085
0
10
10707
728
23
702
1
1
1
11336
269
0
0
10340
726
29
694
1
1
1
13366
191
0
2
12422
751
39
706
1
1
4
14064
57
6
0
12277
1723
25
1675
20
3
1
15031
24
0
0
12924
2083
30
1830
197
25
1
14391
20
0
0
11703
2667
31
2228
334
73
1
12318
18
0
0
9068
3233
31
2619
459
121
1
6251
15
0
0
2640
3596
30
2899
515
151
1
4004
13
0
0
0
3991
30
3254
530
176
1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
38857
9492
21468
26116
-4648
8217
-320
43775
9343
23579
25674
-2096
10418
350
48651
7566
27331
32658
-5328
13278
372
48968
5511
28425
30565
-2141
14191
542
49819
5066
29325
32185
-2859
14491
610
51031
5349
29150
32253
-3103
15532
602
53562
6502
29248
32415
-3167
16833
512
57745
9575
29511
32687
-3176
17662
480

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
47258
10244
17730
8169
10707
-320
728
50459
8551
19794
10611
10340
350
812
57168
8200
21949
13369
12422
372
856
54952
5450
20547
14113
12277
542
2022
57069
5090
21545
14491
12924
610
2410
57343
5369
21071
15532
11703
602
3065
57382
6520
20749
16833
9068
512
3700
21.7
37.5
17.3
22.7
1.5
16.9
39.2
21.0
20.5
1.6
14.3
38.4
23.4
21.7
1.5
9.9
37.4
25.7
22.3
3.7
8.9
37.8
25.4
22.6
4.2
9.4
36.7
27.1
20.4
5.3
70202
42714
274
27214
73524
41349
347
31828
82639
48148
474
34017
85694
47586
516
37591
93850
50094
2654
41102
6544
3875
318
1983
368
0
0
7182
3764
232
2721
465
0
0
7453
3025
172
3790
466
0
0
8299
1889
411
4612
1388
0
0
35155
29036
0
10
6109
32956
28632
0
5
4320
40739
37085
0
41
3612
38991
35792
0
27
3173
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
0.6
-16.0
1.2
-18.8
-2.0
-3.0
-10.6
-3.0
-14.3
1.5
0.3
5.6
0.0
7.9
2.1
14.0
0.4
10.7
-2.7
10.0
65.3
37.6
-9.1
-3.5
4.5
0.4
3.7
8.8
17.1
-0.2
2.1
-0.6
2.2
1.5
3.8
-0.2
59346
10821
29647
32825
-3178
17861
437
2.3
-2.2
2.4
2.3
0.2
-3.9
0.7
-0.1
0.7
2.5
0.0
0.1
1.0
5.2
0.1
0.1
4.9
0.9
5.1
1.5
-1.7
0.6
-1.6
55077
9590
20593
17662
2640
480
4114
54054
10834
20350
17861
0
437
4572
1.9
-2.2
2.2
5.0
1.5
0.1
2.5
-0.4
1.5
-3.5
-1.7
4.4
-0.6
5.2
-0.2
0.6
1.6
0.0
-4.7
-0.2
0.8
0.4
5.1
10.9
11.4
36.2
29.3
15.8
6.4
17.4
37.4
32.1
4.8
7.5
20.0
37.6
33.0
0.0
8.5
101082
45361
4282
51439
108939
35148
5770
68020
114781
10232
6441
98107
117748
0
6670
111078
1.6
1.2
5.6
2.3
1.3
0.4
18.8
1.9
1.5
-3.5
8.1
5.2
0.8
1.5
5.0
7177
1956
33
3985
1203
0
0
8484
2339
89
4735
1321
0
0
11007
3622
80
5867
1437
0
0
15317
6816
91
6793
1618
0
0
17137
8163
98
6900
1975
0
0
1.3
-2.4
-6.0
6.7
2.4
-0.4
-4.3
-15.2
0.5
10.0
4.4
6.4
9.3
3.9
1.8
4.5
8.5
2.0
1.6
3.2
38535
35210
225
71
3029
38333
34902
502
48
2881
38357
34812
787
41
2717
38329
34789
937
45
2559
38401
34822
1054
43
2481
1.5
2.5
-0.6
-0.5
15.2
-5.1
5.6
-1.7
0.0
-0.1
13.4
-5.3
-1.1
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.4
-0.9
-1.6
2.1
2310
2273
2370
2127
1934
1915
1923
2006
2011
0.3
-2.0
-0.1
0.4
Non-Energy Uses
2739
3289
5814
4583
4266
4054
4029
3999
3959
7.8
-3.0
-0.6
-0.2
31296
34489
36931
36403
38013
38938
39613
39803
39870
1.7
0.3
0.4
0.1
11886
9285
2600
8337
3370
7704
12110
9192
2918
9295
4604
8480
13636
10043
3593
9465
4158
9672
11605
8751
2854
9914
5005
9880
11797
8851
2946
10147
5412
10657
11896
8901
2995
10347
5579
11116
11908
8845
3062
10463
5711
11532
11882
8762
3120
10394
5750
11778
11884
8672
3212
10322
5745
11919
1.4
0.8
3.3
1.3
2.1
2.3
-1.4
-1.3
-2.0
0.7
2.7
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.0
-0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.3
3787
14734
7249
4986
213
326
3306
16248
8517
5885
220
312
3378
16047
10010
6667
490
338
2080
16443
10009
6894
427
549
1843
16837
10375
7698
360
901
1826
16420
10751
8255
438
1249
1785
16221
10775
8774
471
1587
1762
16197
10502
9105
502
1735
1680
16035
10539
9282
533
1800
-1.1
0.9
3.3
2.9
8.7
0.3
-5.9
0.5
0.4
1.4
-3.1
10.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
1.3
2.7
5.8
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.6
1.3
1.3

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
106.2
21.8
5.4
30.2
18.7
7.5
22.6
112.4
23.1
5.2
28.7
20.1
10.4
24.9
115.4
22.5
5.5
30.5
20.0
8.2
28.6
107.8
20.6
4.3
22.8
20.3
10.5
29.4
106.0
18.2
3.8
22.2
19.8
10.8
31.1
108.8
21.6
3.9
21.3
19.5
10.7
31.8
115.6
29.2
3.8
20.6
19.0
10.6
32.4
129.4
44.0
3.7
20.0
18.4
10.5
32.8
134.1
49.6
3.7
19.7
18.0
10.3
32.9
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.8
2.4
-0.8
-2.1
-3.7
-3.1
-0.1
2.8
0.8
0.9
4.8
0.1
-0.8
-0.4
-0.1
0.4
1.5
5.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
0.2
100.0
105.8
108.6
101.5
99.8
102.4
108.8
121.8
126.3
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
104
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Belgium: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
9.948
220.3
214.5
4.75
7057
2.25
10.68
482.2
75.7
10.131
243.0
207.7
4.98
7258
2.23
11.10
462.7
80.5
10.239
277.7
205.9
5.58
8071
2.02
11.27
415.7
77.8
10.446
298.5
184.1
5.26
8204
1.96
10.32
361.2
78.3
10.583
335.9
169.9
5.39
8868
1.86
10.02
315.6
76.8
10.674
373.6
153.5
5.37
9470
1.90
10.19
291.3
78.0
10.790
409.2
140.2
5.32
10096
2.01
10.71
282.5
81.3
10.898
444.7
123.9
5.05
10532
2.35
11.87
290.9
90.2
10.984
477.7
113.1
4.92
10720
2.48
12.21
280.8
93.7
0.3
2.3
-0.4
1.6
1.4
-1.1
0.5
-1.5
0.0
0.3
1.9
-1.9
-0.3
0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-2.7
0.0
0.2
2.0
-1.9
-0.1
1.3
0.8
0.7
-1.1
0.0
0.2
1.6
-2.1
-0.8
0.6
2.1
1.3
-0.1
0.0
102.0
109.4
97.5
100.4
104.3
110.2
123.2
100.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.8
99.4
109.5
95.0
78.1
91.1
104.8
91.1
72.1
84.6
96.7
85.4
67.1
78.8
89.8
80.9
62.4
72.6
82.9
76.0
58.2
67.6
77.2
71.6
-0.2
-0.9
0.2
0.0
-2.4
-0.9
0.5
-0.9
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
0.30
2.52
2.54
2.24
2.23
2.94
0.30
2.44
2.37
2.16
2.26
2.94
0.25
2.36
2.24
2.11
1.96
2.96
0.23
2.28
1.97
2.05
2.09
2.97
0.18
2.21
1.88
1.95
1.99
2.92
0.20
2.14
1.79
1.88
1.92
2.86
0.25
2.08
1.73
1.81
1.86
2.81
0.36
2.05
1.69
1.77
1.82
2.78
0.40
2.03
1.65
1.74
1.80
2.76
-1.7
-0.7
-1.3
-0.6
-1.3
0.1
-3.2
-0.7
-1.7
-0.8
0.1
-0.1
3.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.4
4.6
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
14452
5801
319
306
13
0
0
8332
1863
1680
5522
615
515
0
0
15254
5843
467
298
167
2
0
8944
2324
1392
6360
641
551
0
0
18082
5873
1237
300
913
24
0
10972
3201
1258
7962
591
1161
0
0
18886
5273
1927
303
1572
52
0
11687
4535
1474
8376
549
1287
0
0
20599
4096
2625
304
2228
93
0
13878
5208
2168
9658
523
1528
0
0
21849
1192
2973
304
2528
141
0
17683
5213
4909
10999
240
1536
0
0
22108
0
3083
304
2571
208
0
19026
5352
5656
11669
252
1450
0
0
2.3
0.1
14.5
-0.2
53.0
1.3
-3.5
7.8
0.1
9.3
14.6
0.7
2.8
5.6
-2.8
3.7
-0.4
8.5
2.4
5.0
5.6
2.0
-1.2
2.8
3.2
0.3
10.1
1.9
-7.1
-0.5
62.3
61.4
57.2
59.1
58.4
57.3
58.1
39.3
7.3
60.3
58.3
2.1
39.0
7.2
60.3
55.5
4.8
49.2
18.0
62.5
53.4
9.1
52.1
23.6
55.8
44.9
10.9
53.1
25.1
44.6
32.3
12.4
55.1
26.6
22.2
8.9
13.3
55.7
27.0
14.8
0.0
14.8
1.3
0.0
2.4
0.0
4.9
2.1
6.2
4.5
7.8
6.9
8.7
8.1
9.8
9.0
1.8
3.4
1.3
3.0
3.8
0.1
1.0
0.4
0.7
1.9
3.6
0.3
0.8
0.2
0.5
1.5
2.3
0.3

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
1.6
0.0
1.4
8.4

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
113.7
10.9
90.1
7.3
4.6
0.8
126.3
13.1
98.6
7.6
6.4
0.7
139.3
13.3
107.7
8.6
9.3
0.4
153.2
17.6
114.4
10.1
10.8
0.4
166.2
18.5
122.2
11.6
13.5
0.4
175.9
18.9
127.4
12.8
16.5
0.4
184.2
19.3
131.3
14.0
19.2
0.4
192.0
19.6
135.3
15.0
21.8
0.4
198.7
19.7
138.3
16.2
24.1
0.4
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
7.2
-7.8
11432
12469
13604
14663
15700
16482
17068
17619
18092
1.8
1.4
0.8
0.6
48.0
34.2
8.4
5.4
58.6
45.6
7.3
5.7
65.9
51.0
7.7
7.2
60.5
43.8
8.1
8.6
63.8
46.3
8.5
9.0
68.6
50.4
9.0
9.2
74.7
55.9
9.4
9.4
80.8
61.6
9.6
9.6
86.3
66.8
9.8
9.7
3.2
4.1
-0.9
2.8
-0.3
-1.0
1.1
2.2
1.6
1.9
0.9
0.5
1.4
1.8
0.4
0.3

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
218
241
237
203
190
184
183
182
181
0.9
-2.2
-0.4
-0.1

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
7704
165
4075
2205
177
952
129
8480
164
4502
2420
202
945
247
9672
170
4794
2858
183
1530
136
9880
173
5442
2581
185
1281
217
10657
181
5772
2721
193
1565
226
11116
178
5787
2938
195
1788
230
11532
176
5746
3237
193
1946
234
11778
172
5522
3590
183
2079
232
11919
162
5265
3917
161
2185
229
2.3
0.3
1.6
2.6
0.4
4.9
0.5
1.0
0.6
1.9
-0.5
0.5
0.2
5.2
0.8
-0.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
2.2
0.3
0.3
-0.8
-0.9
1.9
-1.8
1.2
-0.2

46.4
50.6
45.4
46.9
47.1
47.2
45.5
48.0
45.7
47.9
44.5
47.8
43.2
47.9
40.9
48.6
38.7
49.0
0.1
-0.7
-0.3
0.1
-0.6
0.0
-1.1
0.2
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
105
APPENDIX 2
Bulgaria: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
9136
5121
60
11
3783
161
161
0
0
0
0
10192
5287
43
40
4453
370
151
219
0
0
0
9845
4310
42
12
4689
792
230
562
0
0
0
10611
4178
30
384
4812
1207
373
801
0
0
33
9685
4636
34
237
3521
1258
250
924
33
4
46
10079
4979
36
198
3539
1328
285
950
36
14
42
11971
4867
40
169
5474
1422
295
1019
42
26
39
12704
3561
41
143
7351
1607
317
1166
54
36
34
13023
3567
41
122
7351
1942
341
1444
78
49
29
0.8
-1.7
-3.5
1.3
2.2
17.2
3.6
-0.2
0.7
-2.3
34.4
-2.8
4.7
0.9
5.1
2.1
0.5
1.7
-3.3
4.5
1.2
1.7
1.0
2.4
19.4
-1.6
0.8
-3.1
0.3
-3.2
3.0
3.2
1.5
3.5
6.3
6.7
-2.8
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
17823
3527
8540
8247
292
5430
326
13475
2424
6511
8003
-1492
4563
-14
8681
2258
4081
5346
-1265
2742
-397
9416
2550
5086
6328
-1242
2458
-652
10437
2774
5351
7162
-1811
2549
-208
10240
2713
5675
7585
-1909
2135
-253
11159
2784
6351
8450
-2099
2710
-653
12171
2821
6863
9106
-2242
3235
-711
12755
2842
7034
9331
-2297
3692
-768
-6.9
-4.4
-7.1
-4.2
1.9
2.1
2.7
3.0
0.7
0.0
1.7
1.7
1.3
0.2
1.0
1.0
-6.6
-0.7
0.6
3.1

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
27964
8706
9593
5395
3783
326
161
23305
7673
6245
4584
4453
-14
363
18610
6417
4181
2932
4689
-397
788
19885
6892
4847
2804
4812
-652
1181
19987
7410
5250
2785
3521
-208
1228
20165
7692
5557
2333
3539
-253
1297
22962
7651
6222
2879
5474
-653
1389
24696
6383
6725
3378
7351
-711
1570
25592
6409
6889
3814
7351
-768
1896
-4.0
-3.0
-8.0
-5.9
2.2
0.7
1.4
2.3
-0.5
-2.8
1.4
0.3
1.7
0.3
4.5
1.1
-1.8
1.0
2.9
3.0
17.2
4.5
1.2
3.2
31.1
34.3
19.3
13.5
0.6
32.9
26.8
19.7
19.1
1.6
34.5
22.5
15.8
25.2
4.2
34.7
24.4
14.1
24.2
5.9
37.1
26.3
13.9
17.6
6.1
38.1
27.6
11.6
17.5
6.4
33.3
27.1
12.5
23.8
6.1
25.8
27.2
13.7
29.8
6.4
25.0
26.9
14.9
28.7
7.4

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
42133
14662
1878
25593
41219
17258
1751
22210
40639
18175
2673
19791
43965
18650
4338
20977
40822
13650
3298
23874
46123
13718
3741
28664
56774
22242
3938
30594
62205
30700
4338
27167
66708
30700
4912
31096
-0.4
2.2
3.6
-2.5
0.0
-2.8
2.1
1.9
3.4
5.0
1.8
2.5
1.6
3.3
2.2
0.2

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
10103
6800
951
2352
0
0
0
9182
6734
613
1835
0
0
0
6292
5245
160
884
3
0
0
6523
5675
149
697
2
0
0
6571
5854
0
684
32
0
0
6257
6075
0
182
0
0
0
6600
6232
0
363
5
0
0
5620
4980
21
580
40
0
0
6067
5039
12
815
202
0
0
-4.6
-2.6
-16.3
-9.3
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.6
-0.8
-2.1
-2.5
25.6
-6.1
-16.6
8.4
44.1

Refineries
District heating
Others
13079
8341
0
2779
1960
11635
8023
0
1544
2069
7612
5406
0
324
1882
8839
6586
0
370
1883
8830
7394
32
493
912
9193
7814
65
505
810
9994
8680
91
524
699
10641
9322
173
525
622
10895
9525
291
509
570
-5.3
-4.2
1.5
3.2
-19.3
-0.4
4.3
-7.0
1.2
1.6
10.9
0.6
-2.6
0.9
0.9
12.3
-0.3
-2.0
1359
1458
1146
1279
1491
1462
1581
1673
1727
-1.7
2.7
0.6
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
1427
1236
1261
1059
1000
1062
1195
1300
1371
-1.2
-2.3
1.8
1.4
16138
11575
8861
9682
10482
11533
12852
14120
15101
-5.8
1.7
2.1
1.6
8966
5579
3387
2264
2389
2518
6032
4837
1195
2378
1189
1976
3637
2814
823
2363
1044
1817
3673
2809
864
2268
1181
2560
3633
2797
835
2353
1359
3137
3868
2953
915
2490
1497
3678
4335
3254
1081
2727
1609
4181
4800
3530
1270
2925
1725
4669
5282
3808
1474
3101
1784
4934
-8.6
-6.6
-13.2
0.4
-7.9
-3.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
2.7
5.6
1.8
1.5
2.6
1.5
1.7
2.9
2.0
1.6
3.2
1.3
1.0
1.7
1477
4967
2066
3085
4543
0
1280
2893
1787
2639
2798
178
860
2981
1231
2358
877
555
936
3599
1025
2383
939
800
1131
4276
824
2624
730
897
1104
4623
1031
2985
859
931
1063
5260
1140
3419
979
991
1072
5739
1324
3782
1117
1086
1058
5931
1496
4074
1361
1180
-5.3
-5.0
-5.0
-2.7
-15.2
2.8
3.7
-3.9
1.1
-1.8
4.9
-0.6
2.1
3.3
2.7
3.0
1.0
-0.1
1.2
2.8
1.8
3.4
1.8
72.4
44.8
1.6
11.2
3.0
4.7
7.1
58.1
38.2
1.4
9.3
2.2
1.4
5.6
42.1
24.9
1.3
8.3
1.2
1.2
5.2
45.1
26.2
1.6
7.6
1.2
1.1
7.4
48.3
27.0
1.9
8.0
1.2
1.2
9.1
49.3
26.7
1.8
7.8
1.1
1.4
10.6
52.3
27.8
1.6
8.4
1.0
1.4
12.0
49.6
23.1
1.7
9.0
1.0
1.5
13.2
51.2
23.9
1.7
9.4
1.1
1.5
13.7
-5.3
-5.7
-2.1
-2.9
-8.9
-13.0
-3.0
1.4
0.8
3.8
-0.5
0.2
0.5
5.7
0.8
0.3
-1.3
0.5
-1.6
1.5
2.8
-0.2
-1.5
0.4
1.1
0.3
0.6
1.3
100.0
80.1
58.2
62.2
66.6
68.1
72.1
68.4
70.7
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
106
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Bulgaria: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
8.767
20.1
1394.5
3.19
4806
2.59
8.26
3612.8
63.6
8.427
17.6
1326.4
2.77
4891
2.49
6.89
3304.9
57.2
8.191
16.9
1102.4
2.27
4961
2.26
5.14
2496.1
46.5
7.761
21.4
927.1
2.56
5665
2.27
5.81
2101.9
47.1
7.457
27.9
715.9
2.68
5474
2.42
6.47
1729.1
51.9
7.130
36.8
548.3
2.83
6469
2.45
6.92
1341.6
50.4
6.796
49.3
465.9
3.38
8354
2.28
7.69
1060.5
48.2
6.465
65.2
378.9
3.82
9622
2.01
7.67
760.7
48.9
6.175
84.9
301.4
4.14
10804
2.00
8.30
603.4
49.5
-0.7
-1.7
-2.3
-3.3
0.3
-1.3
-4.6
-3.6
0.0
-0.9
5.2
-4.2
1.7
1.0
0.6
2.3
-3.6
0.0
-0.9
5.8
-4.2
2.3
4.3
-0.6
1.7
-4.8
0.0
-1.0
5.6
-4.3
2.1
2.6
-1.3
0.8
-5.5
0.0
136.2
86.0
149.8
116.6
124.2
101.6
101.5
104.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
76.3
73.0
90.4
110.9
57.5
58.8
80.2
104.4
44.4
47.7
67.1
92.9
35.8
39.5
54.3
78.8
29.0
32.4
44.6
66.5
23.8
26.7
35.8
54.0
-3.0
1.5
-4.0
-1.5
-5.4
-5.2
-2.2
0.4
-4.6
-3.9
-3.8
-2.8
-4.0
-3.9
-4.1
-3.7
0.45
1.61
1.25
1.33
1.98
2.81
0.49
1.60
1.55
0.92
1.16
2.84
0.46
1.80
2.29
0.50
1.13
2.87
0.45
1.79
2.06
0.53
0.91
2.91
0.49
1.86
2.19
0.51
0.91
2.89
0.43
1.81
2.01
0.44
0.94
2.87
0.37
1.78
1.94
0.38
0.89
2.87
0.28
1.75
1.87
0.35
0.87
2.83
0.27
1.70
1.78
0.34
0.85
2.78
0.2
1.1
6.2
-9.3
-5.5
0.2
0.7
0.3
-0.4
0.2
-2.1
0.1
-2.7
-0.4
-1.2
-3.0
-0.2
-0.1
-3.2
-0.4
-0.8
-0.9
-0.4
-0.3
10900
3473
1921
1921
0
0
0
5505
2163
4536
603
355
11
0
0
10201
2678
2005
2004
1
0
0
5517
2183
4527
625
355
11
0
0
10022
1885
2462
2177
283
2
0
5675
1016
4398
887
359
30
0
0
11075
1910
2514
2202
308
4
0
6650
1564
5542
744
334
31
0
0
10505
2870
2583
2217
358
8
0
5053
1636
4072
678
262
40
0
0
11690
3817
2728
2255
458
15
0
5145
1940
4057
950
61
76
0
0
12559
3817
3086
2403
657
27
0
5657
2530
3865
1414
192
186
0
0
-0.8
-5.9
2.5
1.3
0.5
4.3
0.5
0.2
2.4
17.5
1.8
2.9
1.8
0.8
6.2
13.5
0.3
-7.3
-0.3
3.9
0.1
11.0
-1.2
4.9
-0.8
-2.6
-3.1
2.8
1.1
4.5
-0.5
7.6
-3.1
16.5
38.3
44.6
42.7
43.8
57.4
56.9
56.8
27.0
12.0
51.3
44.7
6.6
27.7
14.3
52.4
42.4
10.0
31.2
10.8
42.0
33.4
8.5
39.4
18.3
38.3
29.7
8.5
39.9
18.3
46.5
39.2
7.4
41.6
19.3
57.0
49.4
7.7
44.1
22.2
54.7
46.0
8.6
8.2
0.0
11.3
0.0
10.9
1.1
10.4
1.9
10.0
2.3
10.2
4.0
11.4
6.4
2.9
-2.8
6.6
-3.3
10.8
-2.4
3.0
-0.8
3.7
3.4
6.4
-0.7
2.3
0.1
2.5
3.7
3.2
0.4

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
40.3
26.0
5.4
7.8
0.8
0.3
21.4
11.6
4.0
4.7
0.9
0.3
33.8
13.9
15.5
3.5
0.9
0.0
38.7
11.5
23.1
2.4
1.6
0.0
45.0
10.5
29.5
2.5
2.5
0.0
52.3
9.9
36.0
2.8
3.6
0.0
60.4
9.7
42.5
3.5
4.7
0.0
68.5
9.7
49.0
4.2
5.7
0.0
75.5
9.8
54.3
5.0
6.4
0.0
-1.7
-6.1
11.2
-7.8
0.6
-23.0
4596
2543
4128
4980
6031
7336
8887
10603
12227
-1.1
3.9
4.0
3.2

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
27.8
12.0
14.1
1.6
18.9
9.7
8.6
0.5
12.3
6.4
5.5
0.3
20.3
14.3
5.2
0.8
26.2
19.7
5.5
1.0
32.8
24.9
6.6
1.2
38.7
29.6
7.7
1.4
43.5
33.3
8.7
1.6
46.9
35.9
9.4
1.6
-7.9
-6.1
-8.9
-15.1
7.9
11.9
-0.1
12.0
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.5
1384
1073
726
945
938
891
786
668
553
-6.3
2.6
-1.8
-3.5

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
2518
318
231
1459
216
276
18
1976
152
175
1223
144
276
6
1817
158
639
842
77
101
1
2560
97
928
1274
60
200
2
3137
82
1096
1629
61
268
2
3678
72
1241
1952
71
338
3
4181
67
1363
2250
80
417
3
4669
65
1490
2538
81
491
3
4934
62
1497
2749
69
553
3
-3.2
-6.8
10.7
-5.4
-9.8
-9.6
-25.5
5.6
-6.4
5.5
6.8
-2.4
10.3
8.4
2.9
-1.9
2.2
3.3
2.8
4.5
3.4
1.7
-0.8
0.9
2.0
-1.5
2.9
1.3

20.9
60.4
28.7
72.2
26.8
74.4
31.8
65.7
32.2
64.4
31.7
61.7
30.7
60.2
29.9
60.2
28.0
60.0
2.5
2.1
1.9
-1.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
0.0
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
107
APPENDIX 2
Cyprus: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
6
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
0
0
0
42
0
0
0
0
42
0
11
0
31
0
44
0
0
0
0
44
0
9
0
35
0
51
0
0
0
0
51
0
10
0
41
0
87
1
0
0
0
86
0
14
7
65
0
108
1
0
0
0
107
0
18
9
80
0
153
2
0
0
0
151
0
23
41
88
0
179
3
0
0
0
176
0
28
55
93
0
200
4
0
0
0
196
0
35
64
97
0
23.0
6.9
5.8
10.3
2.7
10.4
23.0
6.9
5.8
2.6
4.7
5.0
4.6
19.1
3.1
-0.2
4.6
4.6
0.9
-1.9
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
1554
68
1486
725
761
0
0
2017
17
2000
794
1207
0
0
2537
36
2502
1149
1353
0
0
2808
44
2764
0
2764
0
0
3147
34
2918
2
2915
195
0
3068
35
2506
2
2504
518
0
3154
34
2493
2
2490
602
0
3169
34
2293
2
2291
760
0
3214
35
2271
2
2269
805
0
5.0
-6.3
5.3
4.7
5.9
2.2
-0.5
1.6
-45.9
8.0
0.0
0.1
-1.6
-0.8
-1.6
11.9
0.2
0.2
-0.9
-0.5
-0.9
2.9

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
1500
60
1434
0
0
0
6
1970
13
1914
0
0
0
42
2381
35
2302
0
0
0
44
2461
36
2374
0
0
0
51
2899
34
2583
195
0
0
87
2838
35
2168
518
0
0
117
2966
36
2152
602
0
0
176
3005
37
1950
760
0
0
258
3069
39
1926
805
0
0
299
4.7
-5.3
4.8
2.0
-0.2
1.2
0.2
0.4
-1.8
11.9
0.3
0.9
-1.1
2.9
23.0
6.9
7.4
5.4

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
4.0
95.6
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
97.2
0.0
0.0
2.2
1.5
96.7
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.5
96.5
0.0
0.0
2.1
1.2
89.1
6.7
0.0
3.0
1.2
76.4
18.2
0.0
4.1
1.2
72.6
20.3
0.0
5.9
1.2
64.9
25.3
0.0
8.6
1.3
62.8
26.2
0.0
9.7

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
1974
0
0
1974
2473
0
0
2473
3369
0
0
3369
4377
0
1
4376
5093
0
84
5009
5716
0
107
5609
6512
0
474
6038
7180
0
635
6545
7723
0
745
6977
5.5
4.2
2.5
1.7
5.5
4.0
18.9
1.9
4.6
1.5

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
509
0
509
0
0
0
0
641
0
641
0
0
0
0
884
0
884
0
0
0
0
1077
0
1077
0
0
0
0
1219
0
1024
195
0
0
0
1067
0
544
518
4
0
0
1097
0
481
602
14
0
0
1086
0
258
760
68
0
0
1126
0
234
805
87
0
0
5.7
3.3
-1.0
0.3
5.7
1.5
-7.3
11.9
45.8
-6.9
2.9
19.6

Refineries
District heating
Others
725
725
0
0
0
824
824
0
0
0
1167
1167
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
2
4
0
0
13
2
11
0
0
22
2
19
0
0
30
2
27
0
0
39
2
37
0
0
4.9
4.9
-40.6
-46.0
13.0
-0.8
17.4
6.0
-0.5
6.6
Annual % Change

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
6.2
35
43
54
22
27
18
18
17
17
4.3
-6.6
-4.2
-0.5
111
155
188
185
186
189
200
208
214
5.4
-0.1
0.7
0.6
1013
1306
1527
1691
1880
2025
2143
2226
2276
4.2
2.1
1.3
0.6
281
246
35
102
151
479
201
125
76
172
186
747
229
117
113
215
233
850
201
78
122
234
289
967
202
74
128
259
344
1075
208
74
134
274
402
1140
224
72
153
285
459
1175
236
70
166
291
499
1199
244
69
174
294
531
1208
-2.0
-7.2
12.3
7.8
4.4
5.9
-1.3
-4.5
1.3
1.9
3.9
2.4
1.1
-0.3
1.8
1.0
2.9
0.9
0.8
-0.3
1.3
0.3
1.5
0.3
76
781
0
151
0
6
13
1068
0
191
0
33
35
1190
0
258
0
44
36
1263
0
340
0
51
34
1374
0
394
0
78
35
1434
0
453
0
102
36
1471
0
519
0
118
37
1484
0
575
0
130
39
1478
0
618
0
141
-7.5
4.3
-0.2
1.4
5.5
4.3
0.4
0.7
6.7
2.8
0.9
0.1
3.7
1.8
23.0
5.8
4.2
1.8
4.4
1.6
0.1
0.9
0.2
0.2
1.4
5.4
2.1
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.2
6.6
2.8
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.3
2.5
7.4
3.5
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.9
8.0
3.7
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.4
3.2
7.4
3.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.4
3.4
7.5
2.9
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.4
3.4
7.2
2.6
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.4
3.5
7.2
2.6
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.4
3.5
4.3
5.7
3.8
-3.2
3.9
4.3
6.0
1.8
2.8
-0.6
-2.3
-0.4
-1.1
-2.2
-2.3
1.6
2.3
1.0
-2.8
0.9
0.8
1.0
-4.3
-0.6
0.2
100.0
123.9
152.5
168.8
182.8
169.2
171.7
164.8
165.4
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
108
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Cyprus: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
0.573
7.5
200.9
2.62
3446
2.90
7.61
583.5
100.1
0.645
9.7
203.7
3.05
3831
2.74
8.36
558.1
99.1
0.690
11.7
204.2
3.45
4880
2.79
9.62
569.5
98.8
0.749
13.6
180.6
3.29
5843
2.99
9.82
539.7
100.7
0.794
16.4
177.3
3.65
6416
2.75
10.04
487.1
97.3
0.828
19.6
145.1
3.43
6905
2.60
8.91
377.0
96.6
0.866
23.4
127.0
3.43
7524
2.52
8.64
320.2
95.4
0.897
26.8
112.0
3.35
8006
2.39
8.01
267.7
94.7
0.921
30.0
102.4
3.33
8381
2.35
7.82
240.4
94.1
1.9
4.6
0.2
2.8
3.5
-0.4
2.4
-0.2
0.0
1.4
3.4
-1.4
0.6
2.8
-0.2
0.4
-1.5
0.0
0.9
3.6
-3.3
-0.6
1.6
-0.9
-1.5
-4.1
0.0
0.6
2.5
-2.1
-0.3
1.1
-0.7
-1.0
-2.8
0.0
136.5
85.0
115.0
88.0
86.5
98.4
100.1
106.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.9
91.0
106.2
97.4
75.6
83.5
104.0
90.3
68.9
73.7
100.9
80.0
62.2
63.8
95.8
69.0
57.1
57.1
90.4
61.4
53.1
52.2
85.7
55.3
-3.1
1.6
-1.4
1.3
-2.8
-1.8
0.4
-1.0
-1.9
-2.7
-0.8
-2.6
-1.6
-2.0
-1.1
-2.2
0.83
2.61
3.07
1.51
1.37
2.97
0.83
2.49
2.67
1.15
1.55
2.98
0.84
2.42
2.72
1.05
1.35
2.98
0.79
2.31
2.48
0.82
1.18
2.97
0.73
2.25
2.47
0.69
1.07
2.96
0.52
2.18
2.46
0.58
0.97
2.95
0.45
2.11
2.47
0.47
0.88
2.93
0.36
2.06
2.49
0.38
0.78
2.91
0.34
2.01
2.50
0.30
0.71
2.90
0.2
-0.8
-1.2
-3.6
-0.1
0.0
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-4.1
-2.3
-0.1
-4.7
-0.6
0.0
-3.7
-2.0
-0.1
-2.8
-0.5
0.1
-4.5
-2.1
-0.1

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
930
0
1
0
0
1
0
929
0
0
0
929
0
0
0
1155
0
1
0
0
1
0
1154
0
0
0
1154
0
0
0
1393
0
47
0
46
1
0
1346
0
0
0
1346
0
0
0
1381
0
50
0
49
1
0
1331
0
0
429
899
3
0
0
1680
0
213
0
212
1
0
1467
0
0
605
846
16
0
0
1901
0
276
0
275
1
0
1625
0
0
846
732
48
0
0
2065
0
314
0
313
1
0
1751
0
0
1062
618
70
0
0
4.1
1.9
2.1
49.4
16.3
4.0
0.0
16.5
0.0
4.0
0.0
3.8
0.9
1.8
3.8
-4.5
55.8
5.8
-3.1
16.2
39.3
40.8
39.2
45.5
42.9
42.0
41.6
32.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.4
0.0
1.7
0.0
1.7
45.2
0.0
2.3
0.0
2.3
47.3
0.0
8.4
0.0
8.4
51.8
0.0
13.6
0.0
13.6
53.3
0.0
15.3
0.0
15.3
2.8
0.0
3.0
0.0
4.5
0.4
5.5
1.2
7.5
2.0
9.4
2.8
10.4
3.7
3.5
3.1
2.5
3.4
1.8
4.0
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.8
1.1
0.6
4.0
3.4
1.8
0.9

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
7.9
0.8
2.3
0.0
4.7
0.0
9.0
1.0
2.5
0.0
5.5
0.0
11.1
1.1
3.0
0.0
7.0
0.0
13.5
1.2
3.9
0.0
8.4
0.0
15.5
1.3
4.4
0.0
9.8
0.0
16.9
1.4
4.6
0.0
10.8
0.0
18.1
1.5
4.8
0.0
11.7
0.0
19.0
1.6
5.0
0.0
12.4
0.0
19.7
1.7
5.2
0.0
12.8
0.0
13725
13988
16045
17973
19550
20393
20950
21239
21385
1.6
2.0
0.7
0.2
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.6
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.7
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.7
0.0
0.0
2.7
2.7
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
135
124
112
102
90
79
69
62
57
-1.8
-2.2
-2.7
-1.9

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
479
8
117
201
0
152
0
747
14
145
321
0
267
0
850
16
177
368
0
290
0
967
16
288
364
0
299
0
1075
17
325
385
0
348
0
1140
18
338
409
0
374
0
1175
19
341
420
0
395
0
1199
19
343
429
0
408
0
1208
19
333
442
0
414
0
5.9
6.4
4.2
6.2
2.4
1.0
6.3
0.5
0.9
1.1
0.5
0.9
0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.5
6.6
1.8
1.3
0.5
35.4
199.1
47.2
267.7
43.5
280.6
44.8
261.2
44.5
261.2
43.3
264.6
41.6
261.5
40.4
259.0
38.9
260.0
2.1
3.5
0.2
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
-0.7
-0.1

Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
109
APPENDIX 2
Czech Republic: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
38484
34715
222
201
3246
100
100
0
0
0
0
31733
27481
272
198
3155
627
172
455
0
0
0
29788
25002
384
169
3506
727
151
576
0
0
0
32779
23520
584
154
6379
2142
205
1933
2
2
0
28126
17097
200
159
7479
3191
211
2900
50
29
0
25620
14063
200
167
7592
3598
212
3229
90
66
0
24561
12040
200
169
7839
4314
218
3895
103
97
0
25269
11001
200
171
8986
4911
221
4444
121
126
0
21501
10086
200
179
5599
5436
230
4926
137
143
0
-2.5
-3.2
5.6
-1.7
0.8
22.0
4.2
-0.6
-3.7
-6.3
-0.6
7.9
15.9
3.4
17.5
-1.3
-3.4
0.0
0.6
0.5
3.1
0.3
3.0
7.5
12.7
1.3
-1.3
-1.8
0.0
0.6
-3.3
2.3
0.6
2.4
2.9
3.9
1.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
7630
-5685
8589
7382
1207
4786
-60
8417
-5784
7742
6798
944
6424
36
9297
-4751
7428
5492
1936
7482
-861
12271
-3489
9499
7539
1960
7535
-1086
18840
1886
10771
8612
2159
7788
-1414
21059
2492
11853
9431
2422
8197
-1271
24654
4973
12772
10124
2648
8269
-1105
26077
6021
13461
10643
2818
8367
-1480
30296
9581
13956
11014
2942
8786
-1702
2.0
7.3
-1.4
-2.9
4.8
4.6
3.8
4.6
1.1
0.4
2.7
10.2
1.7
1.6
2.1
0.6
2.1
6.8
0.9
0.8
1.1
0.6

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
47380
29882
8964
5248
3246
-60
100
40801
22556
7876
6552
3155
36
627
40307
21645
7790
7500
3506
-861
727
44798
20099
9748
7703
6379
-1086
1955
46966
18983
10971
7947
7479
-1414
3000
46679
16554
12053
8364
7592
-1271
3386
49215
17013
12972
8438
7839
-1105
4058
51346
17022
13661
8537
8986
-1480
4620
51798
19667
14156
8965
5599
-1702
5113
-1.6
-3.2
-1.4
3.6
0.8
1.5
-1.3
3.5
0.6
7.9
0.5
-1.1
1.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
1.5
0.9
0.6
-3.3
22.0
15.2
3.1
2.3
63.1
18.9
11.1
6.9
0.2
55.3
19.3
16.1
7.7
1.5
53.7
19.3
18.6
8.7
1.8
44.9
21.8
17.2
14.2
4.4
40.4
23.4
16.9
15.9
6.4
35.5
25.8
17.9
16.3
7.3
34.6
26.4
17.1
15.9
8.2
33.2
26.6
16.6
17.5
9.0
38.0
27.3
17.3
10.8
9.9

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
62260
12583
1161
48516
60564
12228
2002
46335
72898
13588
1758
57553
81916
24724
2402
54791
94016
28995
3038
61982
99085
29433
3521
66131
104386
30388
3737
70260
116739
35583
3989
77166
126471
22720
4290
99461
1.6
0.8
4.2
1.7
2.6
7.9
5.6
0.7
1.1
0.5
2.1
1.3
1.9
-2.9
1.4
3.5

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
10989
9947
741
300
0
0
0
14575
13571
311
573
119
0
0
15873
14031
203
1270
369
0
0
15591
13955
126
1286
224
0
0
15104
13890
80
1032
101
0
0
13023
11682
28
1235
78
0
0
13808
12304
28
1087
390
0
0
14476
12524
1
1057
894
0
0
17623
15717
0
857
1049
0
0
3.7
3.5
-12.2
15.5
-0.5
-0.1
-8.9
-2.1
-12.1
-0.9
-1.2
-10.0
0.5
14.4
2.5
2.5
-2.4
10.4

Refineries
District heating
Others
18634
7946
0
2138
8549
14422
7026
11
1404
5982
11312
6047
0
999
4266
13108
7957
3
909
4239
13317
8869
378
1039
3031
13852
9713
539
838
2762
14620
10425
756
775
2663
15000
10952
891
630
2527
15315
11334
1001
537
2444
-4.9
-2.7
1.6
3.9
-7.3
-6.7
0.4
-3.4
0.9
1.6
7.2
-2.9
-1.3
0.5
0.8
2.8
-3.6
-0.9
2124
1866
1919
1915
2262
2264
2343
2446
2551
-1.0
1.7
0.4
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
1680
2132
1962
2419
2848
3204
3591
3894
4109
1.6
3.8
2.3
1.4
36267
25697
23905
25801
28144
29998
31644
32878
33892
-4.1
1.6
1.2
0.7
19215
8050
11165
8625
5622
2804
12191
6719
5472
5796
4871
2840
10031
6276
3755
5260
3893
4721
9439
6588
2851
6063
3730
6569
9955
6874
3081
6719
3914
7557
10336
7070
3265
7039
4233
8390
10805
7283
3522
7196
4559
9084
11141
7422
3719
7340
4849
9547
11420
7515
3905
7471
5172
9829
-6.3
-2.5
-10.3
-4.8
-3.6
5.3
-0.1
0.9
-2.0
2.5
0.1
4.8
0.8
0.6
1.3
0.7
1.5
1.9
0.6
0.3
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.8
17789
6229
5146
4142
2959
0
6457
5018
6119
4129
3664
309
5164
5291
6419
4243
2624
165
3619
6913
6581
4750
2478
1460
3685
7535
6636
5405
2452
2430
3451
8357
7048
5977
2413
2752
3421
8876
7197
6523
2566
3062
3409
9284
7250
7085
2742
3106
2904
9560
7868
7555
2540
3466
-11.6
-1.6
2.2
0.2
-1.2
-3.3
3.6
0.3
2.4
-0.7
30.9
-0.7
1.7
0.8
1.9
0.5
2.3
-1.6
0.7
0.9
1.5
-0.1
1.2

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
154.8
48.8
2.3
58.1
24.0
14.1
7.5
118.4
60.4
1.5
29.0
10.6
9.2
7.7
116.7
62.1
2.2
25.2
7.9
5.9
13.4
114.8
61.0
2.3
20.9
7.1
4.5
19.1
116.5
60.1
2.7
21.0
7.6
3.9
21.2
110.1
51.3
2.7
21.1
7.7
3.8
23.3
113.7
53.1
2.8
21.4
7.7
3.9
24.9
115.1
53.2
2.8
21.6
7.8
3.8
25.9
127.4
65.3
2.8
21.1
7.8
3.9
26.4
-2.8
2.4
-0.5
-8.0
-10.5
-8.4
6.0
0.0
-0.3
2.1
-1.8
-0.3
-4.0
4.6
-0.2
-1.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
1.6
1.1
2.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.6
100.0
76.5
75.4
74.2
75.2
71.1
73.4
74.3
82.3
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
110
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Czech Republic: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
10.362
81.3
582.6
4.57
6008
3.27
14.94
1904.2
16.1
10.333
77.5
526.6
3.95
5861
2.90
11.46
1528.5
20.6
10.278
83.4
483.2
3.92
7093
2.89
11.35
1399.0
23.1
10.221
99.7
449.2
4.38
8015
2.56
11.23
1151.3
27.4
10.145
124.6
377.1
4.63
9267
2.48
11.48
935.0
40.1
10.012
148.5
314.4
4.66
9897
2.36
10.99
741.2
45.1
9.902
178.2
276.2
4.97
10542
2.31
11.48
637.8
50.1
9.812
203.8
251.9
5.23
11898
2.24
11.73
564.7
50.8
9.693
227.0
228.1
5.34
13048
2.46
13.15
561.2
58.5
-0.1
0.3
-1.9
-1.5
1.7
-1.2
-2.7
-3.0
0.0
-0.1
4.1
-2.5
1.7
2.7
-1.5
0.1
-3.9
0.0
-0.2
3.6
-3.1
0.7
1.3
-0.7
0.0
-3.8
0.0
-0.2
2.5
-1.9
0.7
2.2
0.6
1.4
-1.3
0.0
212.7
181.6
215.6
60.9
162.3
126.0
130.1
64.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
72.4
98.7
81.5
116.4
59.0
87.1
69.2
107.2
51.9
76.4
62.4
99.8
46.1
65.0
55.4
90.1
42.0
58.1
51.4
82.8
38.8
53.3
49.1
76.5
-7.3
-5.8
-7.4
5.1
-5.1
-1.4
-3.6
0.7
-2.4
-2.9
-2.2
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-1.2
-1.6
0.46
2.86
3.03
2.78
2.51
2.68
0.55
2.20
2.38
1.84
1.89
2.71
0.56
2.19
2.51
1.50
1.51
2.85
0.51
2.00
2.21
1.16
1.21
2.90
0.45
1.91
2.11
1.14
1.00
2.80
0.37
1.87
2.04
1.10
0.91
2.78
0.36
1.83
1.98
1.07
0.85
2.74
0.33
1.80
1.93
1.06
0.79
2.72
0.39
1.75
1.85
1.05
0.76
2.69
1.8
-2.6
-1.8
-6.0
-5.0
0.6
-2.1
-1.4
-1.7
-2.7
-4.1
-0.2
-2.0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.7
-1.6
-0.2
0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-0.2
-1.1
-0.2
12048
1661
1148
1142
7
0
0
9239
3030
7747
1208
118
165
0
0
13981
3504
1227
1196
30
1
0
9250
3110
7661
1302
122
165
0
0
15774
3519
1632
1244
386
2
0
10623
3387
8760
1514
125
225
0
0
17545
3534
1968
1246
716
6
0
12044
4017
10277
1447
118
203
0
0
17632
3541
2082
1251
820
12
0
12008
4571
10008
1482
57
461
0
0
18294
4141
2249
1256
971
22
0
11904
5364
9365
1634
30
875
0
0
19448
2640
2395
1262
1103
29
0
14413
5593
11499
1910
113
892
0
0
2.7
7.8
3.6
0.9
49.8
1.1
0.1
2.5
0.1
7.8
19.5
1.0
-2.9
1.4
0.1
3.0
9.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
2.3
0.6
3.1
1.2
3.0
1.3
-0.2
-7.5
7.5
1.8
2.0
1.4
2.6
7.0
6.8
63.9
61.7
63.3
60.5
63.5
68.4
69.5
31.2
21.1
22.3
18.6
3.6
30.2
16.7
34.1
30.2
4.0
35.3
21.2
35.2
30.8
4.3
43.7
26.6
34.2
29.7
4.5
43.8
28.0
35.0
29.1
5.9
45.8
29.4
37.7
30.5
7.2
48.5
26.4
25.2
18.0
7.2
2.4
0.0
6.7
0.0
9.7
4.6
10.3
5.9
11.6
7.7
12.5
8.6
13.5
9.5
1.4
-0.8
1.8
0.4
7.1
2.4
0.7
2.6
0.9
5.9
1.8
1.0
1.9
0.8
3.5

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
92.9
23.6
46.8
20.6
1.9
0.0
95.4
18.6
59.0
15.7
2.1
0.0
101.3
16.2
67.3
15.4
2.5
0.0
105.1
14.7
71.3
15.6
3.5
0.0
116.4
14.9
80.6
15.9
5.0
0.0
130.1
15.4
91.4
16.6
6.7
0.0
146.9
16.0
104.5
17.5
8.8
0.0
162.2
17.0
116.1
18.4
10.7
0.0
174.8
17.7
125.6
19.0
12.5
0.0
8968
9232
9861
10279
11470
12993
14835
16528
18034
1.0
1.5
2.6
2.0

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
64.2
26.3
38.0
0.0
53.9
31.3
22.6
0.0
55.6
37.3
17.5
0.8
59.3
43.4
14.8
1.0
64.7
51.5
12.9
0.3
70.4
58.4
11.9
0.2
77.2
64.9
12.1
0.1
84.0
71.2
12.8
0.0
90.6
77.3
13.3
0.1
-1.4
3.6
-7.5
1.5
3.3
-3.0
-8.7
1.8
2.3
-0.6
-8.1
1.6
1.8
0.9
-5.1
0.9
-3.7
3.7
-2.9
2.8
790
696
666
594
520
474
433
412
399
-1.7
-2.5
-1.8
-0.8

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
2804
132
1271
956
272
174
0
2840
110
1373
971
200
185
0
4721
98
2257
1868
295
197
5
6569
111
2850
2987
271
346
5
7557
111
3192
3536
236
481
2
8390
112
3496
3964
214
603
1
9084
111
3768
4267
207
731
1
9547
108
3911
4511
198
819
0
9829
104
3905
4750
180
889
0
5.3
-2.9
5.9
6.9
0.8
1.3
4.8
1.3
3.5
6.6
-2.2
9.3
-11.0
1.9
-0.1
1.7
1.9
-1.3
4.3
-8.2
0.8
-0.6
0.4
1.1
-1.4
2.0
-5.2

17.4
18.5
17.8
21.1
25.6
38.3
31.9
54.3
32.9
57.6
32.7
58.8
31.6
57.5
30.0
55.7
28.2
54.0
4.0
7.5
2.5
4.2
-0.4
0.0
-1.1
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
111
APPENDIX 2
Denmark: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
10040
0
6071
2770
0
1199
2
1140
52
2
2
15562
0
9326
4702
0
1534
3
1423
101
5
2
27617
0
18142
7412
0
2064
3
1687
365
7
3
31173
0
18892
9383
0
2897
2
2313
569
10
3
28760
0
16500
9000
0
3260
3
2535
682
41
0
24007
0
14000
6546
0
3461
3
2682
687
89
0
20214
0
11000
5376
0
3838
3
2939
770
126
0
20029
0
10000
5770
0
4258
3
3169
931
156
0
18564
0
9000
5000
0
4564
3
3418
968
175
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
8605
6216
2711
2032
679
-928
606
7534
7664
1429
802
627
-1496
-68
-7076
3784
-8094
-9607
1512
-2882
57
-10498
3505
-9381
-11186
1804
-5010
118
-7725
3707
-7330
-8506
1176
-4298
-101
-2993
4386
-4753
-5946
1193
-3126
186
972
4753
-1798
-2976
1178
-2568
240
1059
4235
-999
-2075
1076
-2756
208
2437
3954
87
-1006
1093
-2171
166

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
17856
6088
8144
1818
0
608
1199
20244
6498
9105
3170
0
-68
1540
19659
3987
9043
4449
0
57
2123
19534
3715
8133
4399
0
118
3168
20186
3707
8321
4702
0
-101
3557
20136
4386
8369
3420
0
186
3775
20282
4753
8297
2809
0
240
4182
20155
4235
8068
3015
0
208
4630
20040
3954
8126
2829
0
166
4965
34.1
45.6
10.2
0.0
6.7
32.1
45.0
15.7
0.0
7.6
20.3
46.0
22.6
0.0
10.8
19.0
41.6
22.5
0.0
16.2
18.4
41.2
23.3
0.0
17.6
21.8
41.6
17.0
0.0
18.7
23.4
40.9
13.8
0.0
20.6
21.0
40.0
15.0
0.0
23.0
19.7
40.5
14.1
0.0
24.8
25733
0
637
25096
36648
0
1207
35442
36043
0
4270
31772
36269
0
6636
29634
40601
0
7963
32637
38873
0
8027
30846
39734
0
9013
30721
41349
0
10888
30461
42569
0
11332
31237

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
6016
5541
237
174
65
0
0
8423
6061
1008
975
378
0
0
7822
3667
1344
2112
699
0
0
7129
3444
344
2003
1338
0
0
7046
3477
335
2091
1143
0
0
6606
4140
278
1018
1170
0
0
6569
4507
253
405
1404
0
0
6383
3853
52
645
1834
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
9073
8027
0
1005
42
10750
9958
0
761
31
8984
8452
0
515
17
8343
7821
0
509
13
8903
7994
186
723
0
9022
8054
310
657
0
9076
8024
471
582
0
736
1014
1160
1258
1281
1074
Non-Energy Uses
293
291
292
276
275
279
13492
14720
14610
15324
15910
2711
1076
1636
3946
2822
4012
3026
1121
1905
4468
2779
4447
2935
1243
1692
4154
2801
4720
2831
1152
1679
4398
2840
5254
396
7097
1159
2517
1758
566
405
7132
1691
2655
2242
595
290
6950
1667
2791
2255
657
51.7
24.5
1.5
5.4
4.9
3.6
11.9
59.3
30.2
2.0
6.0
4.9
3.1
13.1
100.0
114.6
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
10.6
0.4
-3.5
-0.8
11.6
10.3
-0.9
2.0
-4.0
-5.0
-2.0
-0.7
5.6
1.1
4.0
21.4
12.5
1.9
4.7
-0.1
4.2
6.5
18.7
-37.3
1.6
0.5
1.5
1.2
12.0
0.9
1.7
0.4
1.5
2.3
3.3
0.2
-4.8
-0.2
2.5
9.6
-1.8
8.3
-2.5
0.0
-0.7
1.0
-4.1
1.1
9.4
0.3
-0.7
-0.8
0.6
0.0
2.5
0.0
-5.0
-0.1
-1.8
-0.2
0.1
-21.0
5.9
5.3
1.6
-3.6
1.7
3.4
1.2
-0.2
0.7
21.0
2.4
6.4
0.3
1.2
-0.6
2.3
0.2
6346
3442
192
647
2064
0
0
2.7
-4.0
19.0
28.4
26.9
-1.0
-0.5
-13.0
-0.1
5.0
-0.7
2.6
-2.8
-15.1
2.1
-0.3
-2.7
-2.7
4.8
3.9
8828
7925
538
364
0
8868
7994
610
264
0
-0.1
0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-6.5
-8.4
3.5
0.2
0.0
9.8
-2.2
-0.2
0.0
2.6
-7.6
974
980
942
4.7
1.0
-2.7
-0.3
280
282
286
-0.1
-0.6
0.2
0.2
16367
16664
16763
16794
0.8
0.9
0.5
0.1
2927
1178
1748
4521
2927
5535
3004
1202
1802
4590
2994
5780
3040
1204
1837
4615
3030
5979
3047
1195
1852
4623
3056
6037
3099
1191
1908
4617
3035
6043
0.8
1.5
0.3
0.5
-0.1
1.6
0.0
-0.5
0.3
0.8
0.4
1.6
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
236
7204
1701
2882
2408
892
230
7189
1828
3013
2543
1107
245
7312
1875
3147
2517
1271
246
7365
1887
3250
2499
1416
381
7376
1791
3334
2366
1514
513
7322
1656
3377
2286
1640
-3.1
-0.2
3.7
1.0
2.5
1.5
-2.3
0.3
0.9
0.8
1.2
5.4
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.8
-0.2
2.5
7.6
-0.1
-1.3
0.4
-0.9
1.5
52.4
24.0
2.4
5.4
3.9
2.9
13.9
48.9
19.7
2.5
5.0
3.5
2.7
15.5
49.5
20.0
2.5
4.9
3.4
2.7
16.0
49.4
19.8
2.1
5.0
3.3
2.7
16.4
49.2
19.8
1.8
5.0
3.3
2.7
16.6
47.0
17.2
1.8
5.1
3.4
2.8
16.6
45.7
16.0
1.7
5.2
3.5
2.8
16.5
0.1
-0.2
4.9
-0.1
-2.3
-2.1
1.6
-0.6
-1.8
0.6
-0.8
-1.4
-0.8
1.4
-0.1
-0.1
-3.2
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.7
-2.1
-0.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
-0.1
101.4
94.6
95.7
95.5
95.2
90.9
88.4
-21.0
-3.6
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
112
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Denmark: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
5.135
150.8
118.4
3.48
5011
2.90
10.07
342.9
45.7
5.216
169.2
119.6
3.88
7027
2.93
11.36
350.2
34.5
5.330
194.8
100.9
3.69
6762
2.67
9.84
269.1
-33.7
5.411
208.3
93.8
3.61
6702
2.50
9.04
234.8
-51.6
5.459
234.9
85.9
3.70
7438
2.45
9.07
210.7
-36.7
5.498
259.3
77.7
3.66
7070
2.45
8.98
190.4
-14.2
5.526
281.3
72.1
3.67
7190
2.43
8.91
175.0
4.6
5.557
301.6
66.8
3.63
7441
2.33
8.46
155.9
5.0
5.577
321.3
62.4
3.59
7633
2.28
8.20
142.3
11.6
0.4
2.6
-1.6
0.6
3.0
-0.8
-0.2
-2.4
0.0
0.2
1.9
-1.6
0.0
1.0
-0.8
-0.8
-2.4
0.0
0.1
1.8
-1.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-1.8
0.0
0.1
1.3
-1.4
-0.2
0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-2.1
0.0
111.3
114.6
132.1
109.9
111.3
115.6
115.3
108.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
94.6
94.6
104.1
92.7
87.7
85.2
97.3
87.2
81.7
78.8
92.0
81.9
76.4
73.4
87.7
77.1
71.8
68.9
82.6
73.8
67.6
64.2
77.6
-1.1
-1.4
-2.7
-0.9
-0.8
-1.3
-1.6
-0.3
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
0.48
1.91
2.00
1.24
1.27
2.96
0.43
1.84
1.98
1.09
1.12
2.95
0.35
1.78
1.83
0.93
1.04
2.95
0.27
1.74
1.76
0.80
0.94
2.96
0.26
1.69
1.68
0.75
0.92
2.88
0.26
1.68
1.67
0.73
0.90
2.84
0.27
1.66
1.63
0.72
0.91
2.78
0.24
1.67
1.68
0.75
0.92
2.76
0.22
1.67
1.69
0.77
0.93
2.72
-3.1
-0.7
-0.9
-2.8
-2.0
0.0
-2.9
-0.5
-0.8
-2.2
-1.2
-0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-1.9
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
-0.2
11888
0
2311
10
2300
2
0
9577
7504
5528
2328
1271
450
0
0
12794
0
3014
11
3000
3
0
9781
8538
5566
2485
1236
494
0
0
12938
0
3665
11
3638
16
0
9273
6576
4819
2584
1182
688
0
0
12712
0
3687
11
3638
37
0
9026
6141
4425
2918
988
694
0
0
11975
0
4023
11
3944
68
0
7952
4723
3541
2640
911
860
0
0
12799
0
4627
11
4520
97
0
8172
4757
3032
3021
919
1200
0
0
12963
0
4657
11
4526
120
0
8306
4131
2425
3366
899
1617
0
0
0.9
-0.8
0.8
4.7
1.5
4.7
24.9
0.9
0.0
0.8
15.8
1.5
0.0
1.4
5.8
-0.3
-1.3
-1.4
1.0
-0.7
4.3
-1.5
-3.3
-3.0
0.2
-2.6
2.3
0.4
-1.3
-3.7
2.5
-0.1
6.5
32.7
30.4
33.8
33.0
35.8
34.9
35.5
34.9
63.9
18.9
0.0
18.9
35.8
68.3
32.1
0.0
32.1
39.8
62.5
29.9
0.0
29.9
40.2
62.2
31.4
0.0
31.4
40.2
58.8
36.3
0.0
36.3
41.0
52.6
44.5
0.0
44.5
42.3
49.0
48.1
0.0
48.1
12.4
0.0
15.5
0.0
18.7
3.4
19.6
5.5
20.9
8.1
22.5
9.3
24.2
10.5
1.1
0.0
1.0
1.8
2.6
-0.4
0.9
0.3
0.6
1.4
2.7
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.7
0.8

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
70.1
6.4
47.8
5.1
5.5
5.2
73.0
7.3
49.0
4.9
7.0
4.7
77.8
7.4
51.9
5.5
9.0
3.9
81.6
7.4
54.4
6.2
9.8
3.7
87.0
7.4
57.6
6.6
11.6
3.8
91.6
7.5
59.6
7.2
13.5
3.8
95.6
7.6
61.2
7.6
15.2
4.0
99.4
7.8
62.8
8.0
16.7
4.1
102.6
8.0
64.1
8.3
17.9
4.3
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.9
5.0
-2.9
13645
13988
14598
15073
15934
16655
17296
17881
18400
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
21.7
18.1
1.7
1.9
26.7
22.4
2.0
2.3
27.5
24.0
2.0
1.5
27.0
23.3
2.0
1.7
29.4
25.4
2.1
1.9
31.7
27.4
2.3
2.1
34.0
29.3
2.4
2.2
36.2
31.3
2.6
2.4
38.5
33.3
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.9
1.6
-2.4
0.7
0.6
0.4
2.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.3
144
158
141
130
125
122
121
120
120
-0.2
-1.2
-0.4
-0.1

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4012
57
1628
1374
113
690
150
4447
76
1709
1690
117
675
181
4720
78
1788
1816
103
820
115
5254
83
2034
1952
106
944
136
5535
80
2076
2066
107
1068
138
5780
79
2062
2211
108
1178
142
5979
78
2026
2355
105
1268
147
6037
76
1893
2488
95
1333
152
6043
72
1771
2639
48
1359
155
1.6
3.1
0.9
2.8
-1.0
1.7
-2.6
1.6
0.3
1.5
1.3
0.4
2.7
1.8
0.8
-0.2
-0.2
1.3
-0.2
1.7
0.6
0.1
-0.8
-1.3
1.1
-7.6
0.7
0.6

36.1
68.3
36.2
67.8
36.2
69.2
39.3
75.8
38.8
73.5
37.9
72.9
36.9
72.2
34.8
71.2
32.7
69.7
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.6
-0.5
-0.2
-1.2
-0.4
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
113
APPENDIX 2
Estonia: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
6249
5798
0
0
0
450
0
450
0
0
0
3618
3129
0
0
0
489
0
488
0
0
0
3332
2830
2
0
0
500
0
500
0
0
0
4304
3261
331
0
0
712
2
706
5
0
0
3309
2515
0
0
0
793
2
745
45
1
0
3469
2706
0
0
0
763
2
713
46
2
0
3447
2607
0
0
0
840
2
788
46
4
0
3624
2679
0
0
0
945
3
877
61
5
0
3631
2474
0
0
0
1157
3
1073
76
6
0
-6.1
-6.9
-0.1
-1.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
-0.5
1.1
4.7
16.3
4.1
87.1
0.6
2.3
0.6
0.3
10.3
1.5
3.3
0.4
3.1
5.0
5.1
0.5
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
4456
697
3139
0
3139
1222
-602
1987
292
1178
0
1178
583
-65
1447
244
626
0
626
662
-80
1463
27
867
0
867
800
-138
2401
119
1556
1
1555
973
-151
2602
129
1773
1
1772
896
-102
2560
140
1845
1
1844
798
-120
2557
152
1884
1
1883
757
-123
2664
134
1953
1
1951
867
-150
-10.6
-10.0
-14.9
5.2
-6.9
9.5
-14.9
-5.9
9.5
3.9
0.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.7
-2.0
0.4
-0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
10642
6703
2858
1222
0
-602
460
5630
3598
1032
583
0
-65
483
4712
3119
510
662
0
-80
501
5627
3255
1090
800
0
-138
621
5559
2634
1405
973
0
-151
697
5899
2835
1600
896
0
-102
670
5819
2746
1657
798
0
-120
738
5984
2831
1687
757
0
-123
831
6093
2608
1750
867
0
-150
1018
-7.8
-7.4
-15.8
-5.9
1.7
-1.7
10.7
3.9
0.5
0.4
1.7
-2.0
0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.8
0.9
3.4
0.6
3.3
63.0
26.9
11.5
0.0
4.3
63.9
18.3
10.3
0.0
8.6
66.2
10.8
14.1
0.0
10.6
57.8
19.4
14.2
0.0
11.0
47.4
25.3
17.5
0.0
12.5
48.1
27.1
15.2
0.0
11.4
47.2
28.5
13.7
0.0
12.7
47.3
28.2
12.7
0.0
13.9
42.8
28.7
14.2
0.0
16.7
17178
0
0
17178
8691
0
2
8689
8511
0
6
8505
10203
0
76
10127
12064
0
548
11516
12942
0
557
12385
14621
0
568
14053
15952
0
736
15215
17088
0
909
16179
-6.8
3.6
1.9
1.6
-6.8
57.1
3.1
0.4
2.0
4.8
1.4

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
5654
5085
210
357
2
0
0
2682
2499
80
100
2
0
0
2452
2213
12
226
2
0
0
2539
2297
10
227
5
0
0
3008
2480
23
275
229
0
0
3073
2648
42
327
56
0
0
2951
2551
42
237
120
0
0
3049
2624
44
190
191
0
0
3070
2421
49
228
371
0
0
-8.0
-8.0
-25.2
-4.5
-0.3
2.1
1.1
7.3
2.0
60.1
-0.2
0.3
6.2
-1.5
-6.2
0.4
-0.5
1.4
-0.4
11.9

Refineries
District heating
Others
2285
1
0
1755
529
1007
1
0
527
479
783
1
0
485
297
769
1
0
511
257
406
1
43
348
14
456
1
63
383
9
403
1
83
312
6
381
1
96
278
5
413
1
111
297
4
-10.2
0.0
-6.4
2.3
-12.1
-5.6
-3.3
-26.4
-0.1
1.6
6.9
-1.1
-7.5
0.2
0.5
2.9
-0.5
-4.1
295
148
179
209
219
220
241
258
266
-4.9
2.1
0.9
1.0
69
225
219
230
224
217
218
218
217
12.2
0.3
-0.3
0.0
6392
2627
2445
2854
3276
3608
3851
4028
4155
-9.2
3.0
1.6
0.8
2742
738
2004
1482
1330
839
794
430
364
1054
289
490
531
203
328
984
353
577
654
215
440
977
498
725
770
226
544
983
630
893
859
251
607
1019
714
1016
932
273
660
1062
773
1084
1003
289
713
1088
823
1115
1055
299
755
1109
847
1145
-15.1
-12.1
-16.6
-4.0
-12.4
-3.7
3.8
1.1
5.2
0.0
6.0
4.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.8
2.1
2.0
1.2
0.9
1.4
0.4
0.9
0.6
1059
1803
439
608
2086
397
201
855
202
510
593
265
122
748
134
506
511
424
102
960
207
584
547
453
105
1191
294
717
558
413
108
1315
292
837
576
480
116
1373
320
933
592
516
122
1406
356
1019
595
530
119
1487
379
1075
584
510
-19.5
-8.4
-11.2
-1.8
-13.1
0.7
-1.5
4.8
8.1
3.5
0.9
-0.3
1.0
1.4
0.9
2.7
0.6
2.3
0.3
0.8
1.7
1.4
-0.1
-0.1
39.2
27.9
0.4
4.6
2.0
1.9
2.4
16.2
12.3
0.0
1.7
0.5
0.3
1.4
14.1
10.9
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.3
1.7
15.2
11.2
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.5
2.1
16.8
11.9
0.2
1.3
0.3
0.6
2.5
18.1
12.8
0.2
1.3
0.4
0.6
2.9
17.7
12.1
0.2
1.3
0.4
0.6
3.0
18.0
12.3
0.2
1.4
0.4
0.7
3.1
17.6
11.5
0.2
1.7
0.4
0.7
3.1
-9.7
-9.0
-9.8
-16.0
-17.7
-17.6
-3.6
1.8
0.9
3.6
4.6
1.6
7.7
4.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.7
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
2.1
0.4
1.3
0.3
100.0
41.2
35.9
38.7
42.9
46.2
45.1
46.0
44.9
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
1.0
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
114
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Estonia: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
1.571
8.1
1316.2
6.78
10937
3.69
24.97
4851.1
41.2
1.448
5.5
1019.0
3.89
6002
2.87
11.17
2926.6
34.8
1.372
7.4
633.3
3.43
6203
2.99
10.28
1895.2
30.0
1.348
11.1
508.7
4.18
7572
2.69
11.25
1371.0
25.5
1.315
16.2
342.9
4.23
9171
3.03
12.80
1038.8
42.1
1.279
19.9
296.5
4.61
10119
3.07
14.17
911.1
42.9
1.248
23.6
247.0
4.66
11718
3.04
14.18
751.1
42.6
1.224
27.2
220.4
4.89
13032
3.02
14.74
664.4
41.4
1.202
29.9
203.4
5.07
14210
2.89
14.63
587.6
42.3
-1.3
-0.8
-7.1
-6.6
-5.5
-2.1
-8.5
-9.0
0.0
-0.4
8.1
-6.0
2.1
4.0
0.1
2.2
-5.8
0.0
-0.5
3.8
-3.2
1.0
2.5
0.0
1.0
-3.2
0.0
-0.4
2.4
-1.9
0.8
1.9
-0.5
0.3
-2.4
0.0
364.5
144.8
376.5
133.7
222.2
146.1
108.2
114.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.1
67.2
96.7
84.4
56.6
47.1
84.9
71.0
51.5
40.2
78.7
65.8
47.2
35.7
71.9
59.3
43.9
32.0
66.4
52.9
41.7
29.7
61.7
49.3
-12.1
-3.6
-12.4
-2.9
-5.5
-7.2
-1.6
-3.4
-1.8
-2.7
-1.6
-1.8
-1.2
-1.8
-1.5
-1.8
0.65
1.70
1.67
1.33
1.42
2.89
0.71
1.48
2.20
0.44
0.87
2.90
0.69
1.25
1.51
0.29
0.77
2.92
0.63
1.33
1.28
0.36
0.94
2.94
0.60
1.43
1.63
0.34
0.91
2.83
0.61
1.41
1.47
0.35
0.85
2.81
0.54
1.39
1.45
0.34
0.82
2.77
0.52
1.38
1.42
0.35
0.85
2.74
0.47
1.41
1.58
0.34
0.86
2.70
0.5
-3.1
-1.0
-14.2
-5.9
0.1
-1.3
1.4
0.8
1.6
1.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.3
-1.2
0.1
-1.0
-0.2
-1.4
0.1
0.9
0.0
0.4
-0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
2999
0
2
1
1
0
0
2997
477
2738
175
65
19
0
0
2998
0
39
7
32
0
0
2959
513
2672
200
65
21
0
0
2704
0
208
7
201
0
0
2497
462
2159
234
66
37
0
0
2930
0
210
7
203
0
0
2721
533
2157
480
42
42
0
0
2614
0
213
7
205
1
0
2401
696
1640
580
78
102
0
0
2883
0
269
7
261
1
0
2614
831
1506
857
88
163
0
0
3087
0
308
7
300
1
0
2779
876
1505
821
109
344
0
0
-1.0
-0.3
1.7
59.3
20.3
72.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
3.8
-0.1
3.9
4.1
-1.8
-0.3
-2.3
2.9
0.2
6.9
-0.4
4.2
-2.7
9.5
1.6
10.8
1.5
2.3
-0.9
3.5
3.4
12.9
28.9
34.7
46.0
46.1
57.9
57.0
57.0
29.8
17.6
0.7
0.0
0.7
34.3
33.1
2.3
0.0
2.3
32.9
22.0
11.8
0.0
11.8
34.7
26.7
6.6
0.0
6.6
41.0
27.4
8.0
0.0
8.0
42.9
25.7
10.3
0.0
10.3
45.3
24.8
14.1
0.0
14.1
20.2
0.0
18.3
0.0
16.7
4.2
16.5
5.4
17.0
6.8
18.1
7.7
21.3
8.7
3.4
-0.1
4.6
0.0
3.4
-0.2
1.2
-0.7
1.4
2.4
5.8
0.8
0.6
-0.3
0.5
2.0
4.8
0.6

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
11.8
4.5
5.1
1.5
0.2
0.6
9.0
2.0
5.9
0.5
0.2
0.3
11.4
2.6
7.7
0.4
0.3
0.4
13.8
2.7
10.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
15.9
2.6
12.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
17.0
2.5
13.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
17.9
2.4
13.9
0.5
0.7
0.5
18.7
2.4
14.5
0.5
0.8
0.5
19.1
2.4
14.7
0.6
1.0
0.5
-0.3
-5.1
4.2
-13.3
2.5
-2.1
7543
6230
8338
10270
12105
13299
14368
15278
15898
1.0
3.8
1.7
1.0

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
11.5
4.5
7.0
0.0
5.4
1.5
3.8
0.0
12.0
3.9
8.1
0.0
16.5
5.8
10.6
0.0
20.9
8.6
12.2
0.0
23.7
10.9
12.9
0.0
25.7
12.6
13.1
0.0
27.1
13.8
13.2
0.0
28.0
14.7
13.3
0.0
0.5
-1.4
1.5
5.7
8.2
4.2
2.1
3.9
0.7
0.8
1.5
0.1
1421
976
1618
1488
1288
1193
1093
998
933
1.3
-2.3
-1.6
-1.6

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
839
44
273
414
65
36
7
490
21
263
139
44
18
4
577
25
307
167
51
20
7
725
23
338
263
48
42
11
893
21
386
371
54
50
11
1016
20
404
464
56
60
11
1084
18
403
528
51
71
12
1115
17
393
565
44
83
12
1145
16
376
619
26
95
12
-3.7
-5.5
1.2
-8.7
-2.4
-5.9
0.0
4.5
-1.7
2.3
8.3
0.6
9.9
4.5
2.0
-1.2
0.4
3.6
-0.7
3.6
0.7
0.6
-1.5
-0.7
1.6
-6.3
2.9
0.3

30.9
41.2
34.5
33.3
31.5
18.0
29.9
18.8
29.4
20.3
29.2
21.9
28.2
22.5
27.1
22.5
26.2
23.1
0.2
-7.9
-0.7
1.2
-0.4
1.0
-0.7
0.3
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
115
APPENDIX 2
Finland: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
11860
1581
0
0
5006
5273
934
4338
0
0
0
13166
2061
15
0
4957
6133
1111
5021
1
0
0
15001
1207
37
0
5799
7959
1261
6691
7
1
0
16461
2129
205
0
6003
8124
1185
6924
15
1
0
16670
1643
0
0
6054
8974
1188
7724
57
5
0
19467
1679
0
0
8994
8795
1194
7535
57
9
0
20573
1753
0
0
8994
9827
1202
8533
72
19
0
21397
1725
0
0
8994
10679
1220
9338
95
26
0
21271
1705
0
0
7780
11786
1234
10389
128
34
0
2.4
-2.7
1.1
3.1
2.1
0.7
0.3
-0.3
1.5
4.2
3.0
4.4
3.8
0.4
1.2
-0.6
1.4
23.8
25.5
4.0
0.9
0.1
1.0
2.4
13.6
0.6
-1.4
1.8
0.3
2.0
5.9
5.9
0.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
18031
4378
10477
8890
1587
2261
915
15542
3774
8205
8548
-343
2839
723
18512
3533
10535
12115
-1580
3422
1021
19163
3338
10844
11017
-173
3598
1461
19588
3874
10258
11884
-1625
4163
1380
19213
4154
9651
11524
-1874
4323
1171
18539
4025
9316
11321
-2005
4675
620
18103
3919
9187
11241
-2054
4558
544
17331
3576
9057
11162
-2105
4188
626
0.3
-2.1
0.1
3.1
0.6
0.9
-0.3
-0.2
-0.5
0.4
-1.0
-0.5
-0.7
-1.2
-0.3
-0.1
4.2
1.1
2.0
3.1
1.2
-7.7
-1.1
0.1

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
28956
5327
9939
2261
5006
915
5508
28959
5950
8344
2839
4957
723
6146
32483
5087
9195
3422
5799
1021
7959
34515
4925
10482
3598
6003
1461
8046
35757
5516
9757
4163
6054
1380
8887
38179
5833
9148
4323
8994
1171
8710
38610
5778
8813
4675
8994
620
9730
38996
5644
8683
4558
8994
544
10573
38096
5282
8551
4188
7780
626
11669
1.2
-0.5
-0.8
4.2
1.5
1.1
3.8
1.0
0.8
0.6
2.0
0.4
3.1
1.1
0.8
0.5
-1.0
1.2
4.0
-7.7
0.9
-0.1
-0.9
-0.3
-1.1
-1.4
0.1
1.8
18.4
34.3
7.8
17.3
19.0
20.5
28.8
9.8
17.1
21.2
15.7
28.3
10.5
17.9
24.5
14.3
30.4
10.4
17.4
23.3
15.4
27.3
11.6
16.9
24.9
15.3
24.0
11.3
23.6
22.8
15.0
22.8
12.1
23.3
25.2
14.5
22.3
11.7
23.1
27.1
13.9
22.4
11.0
20.4
30.6
54367
19213
10857
24298
64023
19213
12935
31876
69976
22475
14737
32764
70536
23267
13954
33315
80830
23470
14478
42882
89544
36243
14555
38746
101005
36243
14834
49927
105894
36243
15320
54331
108268
31821
15875
60572
2.6
1.6
3.1
3.0
1.5
0.4
-0.2
2.7
2.3
4.4
0.2
1.5
0.7
-1.3
0.7
2.0
5451
3216
294
1015
926
0
0
6715
3882
257
1581
996
0
0
6923
3168
131
2106
1518
0
0
7538
2974
107
2384
2073
0
0
7597
3651
96
2626
1223
0
0
6998
3995
0
2233
771
0
0
8385
3893
0
2733
1758
0
0
8900
3808
0
2796
2296
0
0
9572
3580
0
2487
3505
0
0
2.4
-0.1
-7.8
7.6
5.1
0.9
1.4
-3.0
2.2
-2.1
1.0
0.6
-53.5
0.4
3.7
1.3
-0.8
0.0
-0.9
7.1
12055
10689
0
573
793
14028
12029
0
548
1451
15309
13200
0
803
1306
15473
13194
0
954
1325
15755
12318
98
2099
1240
15930
11965
224
2567
1174
15716
11767
311
2525
1113
15562
11690
378
2468
1025
15204
11610
451
2201
942
2.4
2.1
0.3
-0.7
3.4
5.1
10.1
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
12.2
1.9
-1.1
-0.3
-0.1
3.8
-1.4
-1.6
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
781
965
1285
1228
1245
1262
1295
1374
1393
5.1
-0.3
0.4
0.7
1441
1152
896
1095
1173
1212
1233
1246
1258
-4.6
2.7
0.5
0.2
21727
22041
24159
25121
26638
27273
27641
27934
27919
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.1
9618
7351
2267
5321
2479
4309
9988
7628
2359
5418
2484
4151
12053
9456
2596
4536
3127
4443
11988
9067
2921
4846
3471
4816
12691
9482
3209
5103
3724
5119
12937
9590
3347
5255
3846
5235
13075
9652
3423
5329
3905
5332
13214
9742
3472
5378
3954
5388
13162
9674
3489
5376
3961
5419
2.3
2.6
1.4
-1.6
2.3
0.3
0.5
0.0
2.1
1.2
1.8
1.4
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
1621
8100
1501
5068
1915
3522
1277
7563
1523
5608
2126
3944
1099
7507
1328
6487
2780
4957
966
7890
1156
6959
3597
4552
990
7469
1441
7667
3907
5165
1010
7210
1555
8128
4291
5078
1061
6997
1317
8481
4704
5082
1082
6952
1054
8718
4810
5318
1033
6899
993
8943
4792
5260
-3.8
-0.8
-1.2
2.5
3.8
3.5
-1.0
-0.1
0.8
1.7
3.5
0.4
0.7
-0.7
-0.9
1.0
1.9
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-2.8
0.5
0.2
0.3
54.4
17.8
1.4
14.1
6.4
2.1
12.7
55.6
21.8
1.7
12.4
5.9
1.7
12.2
53.8
20.2
2.7
12.5
2.3
3.0
13.1
54.1
20.5
2.5
11.8
2.1
3.0
14.2
56.9
24.1
2.4
10.7
1.9
3.0
14.8
56.6
24.4
2.3
10.5
1.6
2.9
14.9
56.1
25.2
2.2
9.7
1.4
2.7
15.0
55.0
24.8
2.2
8.8
1.4
2.9
15.0
52.3
22.8
2.1
8.1
1.5
3.0
14.9
-0.1
1.3
7.0
-1.2
-9.6
3.8
0.3
0.6
1.8
-1.0
-1.5
-2.3
0.0
1.3
-0.1
0.4
-1.0
-0.9
-3.0
-1.0
0.1
-0.7
-1.0
-0.5
-1.8
0.7
0.9
-0.1
100.0
102.3
98.9
99.5
104.7
104.1
103.3
101.1
96.2
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
116
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Finland: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
4.974
114.5
252.9
5.82
10929
1.88
10.93
474.9
61.1
5.099
110.2
262.8
5.68
12557
1.92
10.91
504.5
53.1
5.171
139.1
233.5
6.28
13532
1.65
10.39
386.3
55.8
5.237
157.4
219.3
6.59
13470
1.57
10.33
343.7
54.7
5.299
183.2
195.2
6.75
15254
1.59
10.75
310.9
54.0
5.353
202.7
188.4
7.13
16726
1.48
10.57
279.2
49.7
5.405
221.3
174.5
7.14
18688
1.45
10.39
253.8
47.4
5.439
239.8
162.6
7.17
19470
1.41
10.11
229.2
45.8
5.443
254.9
149.4
7.00
19890
1.37
9.61
205.1
44.9
0.4
2.0
-0.8
0.8
2.2
-1.3
-0.5
-2.0
0.0
0.2
2.8
-1.8
0.7
1.2
-0.4
0.3
-2.1
0.0
0.2
1.9
-1.1
0.6
2.1
-0.9
-0.3
-2.0
0.0
0.1
1.4
-1.5
-0.2
0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-2.1
0.0
134.5
132.0
91.0
117.9
125.6
141.2
94.6
117.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.1
90.5
102.5
95.8
73.7
84.3
94.1
87.5
67.5
79.6
87.8
80.9
62.7
74.9
81.2
75.5
58.8
70.4
75.3
70.4
55.6
66.5
70.4
66.6
-2.9
-2.7
1.0
-1.6
-3.0
-1.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.2
0.23
1.62
1.46
1.21
0.84
2.94
0.24
1.46
1.24
1.09
0.70
2.93
0.19
1.28
1.03
0.52
0.96
2.94
0.18
1.24
0.98
0.43
0.86
2.94
0.18
1.14
0.84
0.36
0.81
2.90
0.17
1.09
0.81
0.31
0.74
2.84
0.16
1.04
0.74
0.26
0.70
2.81
0.15
1.00
0.66
0.26
0.73
2.78
0.14
0.98
0.62
0.27
0.76
2.74
-1.6
-2.3
-3.4
-8.1
1.4
0.0
-0.4
-1.1
-2.1
-3.4
-1.7
-0.2
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-3.4
-1.4
-0.3
-1.4
-0.6
-1.8
0.6
0.7
-0.2
17044
2687
3057
3016
38
3
0
11300
7129
5539
2479
1341
1942
0
0
17512
2690
3104
3018
82
4
0
11718
7583
5687
2444
1340
2247
0
0
18357
2691
3331
3057
267
8
0
12335
7222
5678
2878
1341
2438
0
0
18605
4207
3353
3072
267
14
0
11046
7214
5048
2992
700
2306
0
0
20139
4207
3447
3097
327
23
0
12485
9057
3843
4418
667
3557
0
0
20888
4207
3578
3116
427
34
0
13104
9629
3476
4990
603
4034
0
0
21415
3691
3756
3131
580
44
0
13969
10690
2932
5542
365
5130
0
0
0.7
0.0
0.9
0.1
21.5
12.5
0.9
4.6
0.3
0.1
2.1
11.0
0.6
-1.3
0.9
0.1
5.9
6.7
0.9
0.1
0.2
1.5
0.0
2.3
0.1
2.3
-3.8
4.4
-6.7
3.9
1.1
1.7
-2.7
2.3
-5.9
3.7
45.1
44.2
48.2
52.6
54.7
54.9
54.6
40.7
44.9
69.2
32.1
37.0
38.0
45.7
69.8
33.0
36.8
48.5
46.4
62.9
29.0
33.9
47.6
38.8
69.6
40.5
29.1
51.2
46.6
68.3
35.9
32.4
52.5
48.4
69.2
34.2
34.9
54.4
53.4
70.8
29.4
41.5
31.0
0.0
28.8
0.0
30.4
1.8
29.1
4.0
31.6
5.4
33.7
6.6
36.9
7.8
1.6
-0.3
2.0
0.6
2.3
-0.5
0.9
0.5
0.8
1.4
2.6
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.4
1.4
2.3
0.3

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
74.8
8.5
51.9
3.7
5.3
5.4
74.1
8.0
50.8
3.6
6.1
5.6
81.0
7.7
56.6
3.9
7.9
5.0
88.2
7.4
63.4
4.0
8.6
4.7
95.2
7.5
69.1
4.1
9.8
4.7
100.3
7.6
72.2
4.4
11.3
4.7
104.5
7.9
74.4
4.7
12.7
4.8
108.6
8.1
76.4
5.0
14.3
4.8
111.9
8.2
77.4
5.5
15.9
4.9
0.8
-1.0
0.9
0.6
4.1
-0.8
15033
14538
15670
16846
17968
18727
19340
19975
20556
0.4
1.4
0.7
0.6
35.8
26.3
8.4
1.1
34.5
24.5
9.6
0.4
42.4
32.0
10.1
0.3
41.8
31.9
9.7
0.2
42.9
32.9
9.8
0.2
44.0
33.8
10.0
0.2
45.3
34.6
10.5
0.2
46.6
35.4
11.0
0.2
47.7
36.1
11.5
0.2
1.7
2.0
1.9
-12.2
0.1
0.3
-0.3
-5.8
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.2
312
313
305
265
234
217
205
194
187
-0.2
-2.6
-1.3
-0.9

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4309
97
1840
1699
99
459
116
4151
84
1867
1557
102
408
134
4443
55
1904
1715
94
505
170
4816
57
2137
1764
97
565
195
5119
57
2314
1821
100
635
192
5235
57
2328
1852
102
705
192
5332
58
2346
1882
101
751
193
5388
59
2322
1921
99
793
193
5419
59
2342
1912
75
838
193
0.3
-5.4
0.3
0.1
-0.6
1.0
3.9
1.4
0.4
2.0
0.6
0.7
2.3
1.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
1.7
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-2.9
1.1
0.0

33.5
50.4
33.6
48.2
32.5
42.6
33.5
44.5
33.7
44.6
32.8
44.3
32.1
43.7
31.0
43.3
30.7
41.6
-0.3
-1.7
0.3
0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
117
APPENDIX 2
France: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
110428
7625
3491
2516
81018
15778
4635
11014
0
19
110
126844
5359
3481
2793
97308
17903
6322
11434
0
15
132
131806
2267
2877
1505
107093
18065
5822
12087
7
26
124
135848
383
1468
828
116474
16695
4491
11968
82
24
130
137950
406
0
0
116590
20954
5578
14370
762
114
131
144249
216
0
0
122274
21759
5451
14646
1149
378
135
147268
15
0
0
122397
24857
5567
16747
1799
605
138
148234
14
0
0
121348
26872
6021
18139
1842
732
138
141804
14
0
0
113186
28604
6110
19518
2022
821
133
1.8
-11.4
-1.9
-5.0
2.8
1.4
2.3
0.9
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
120027
13004
86558
76007
10551
24371
-3907
116049
9010
85551
78951
6600
27493
-6005
133463
13201
90452
84375
6077
35778
-5974
143600
13660
94460
84707
9753
40720
-5185
145708
13712
94392
85753
8639
42901
-5230
147936
13950
96826
87850
8976
42328
-5101
149962
13305
97525
88448
9076
43488
-4278
149353
8504
98758
89505
9252
45124
-2950

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
226550
19955
87673
26032
81018
-3907
15778
239896
15287
85826
29577
97308
-6005
17903
258985
15240
88790
35766
107093
-5974
18070
275439
14428
92086
40996
116474
-5185
16640
280748
14118
91481
42901
116590
-5230
20888
289136
14166
93777
42328
122274
-5101
21691
294066
13320
94360
43488
122397
-4278
24779
8.8
38.7
11.5
35.8
7.0
6.4
35.8
12.3
40.6
7.5
5.9
34.3
13.8
41.4
7.0
5.2
33.4
14.9
42.3
6.0
5.0
32.6
15.3
41.5
7.4
4.9
32.4
14.6
42.3
7.5
416667
314024
53890
48752
490848
377163
73521
40164
536004
415087
67781
53135
570542
451448
53197
65897
611064
451980
73775
85308

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
11117
7334
1921
1423
439
0
0
8486
5441
605
1216
1224
0
0
13129
6231
1272
4062
1565
0
0
15985
6402
1653
6291
1640
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
89549
79634
0
1019
8896
90896
83057
155
605
7079
97392
90084
328
312
6668
94237
87693
434
273
5837
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
0.5
-15.8
0.7
-27.9
-0.4
-1.0
2.8
1.2
0.9
1.5
-0.4
1.7
60.7
16.1
0.5
0.5
1.7
0.0
1.5
9.0
18.1
0.5
-0.8
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.2
3.1
-0.3
149580
7463
99714
90324
9389
44465
-1971
1.1
0.2
0.4
1.0
-5.4
3.9
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.2
3.6
1.8
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
-5.6
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
294300
8518
95471
45124
121348
-2950
26789
287975
7476
96305
44465
113186
-1971
28514
1.3
-2.7
0.1
3.2
2.8
0.8
-0.8
0.3
1.8
0.9
0.5
-0.6
0.3
0.1
0.5
-0.2
-5.6
0.2
0.2
-0.8
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.4
4.5
32.1
14.8
41.6
8.4
2.9
32.4
15.3
41.2
9.1
2.6
33.4
15.4
39.3
9.9
625050
475395
77309
72346
637250
475869
86301
75080
635064
474707
92193
68164
631574
477316
95513
58744
2.6
2.8
2.3
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.9
4.8
0.4
0.5
1.6
-1.3
-0.1
0.0
1.0
-2.4
15276
6624
0
6664
1989
0
0
12520
6876
0
4469
1175
0
0
13133
6441
13
4311
2368
0
0
9889
1949
1
4991
2948
0
0
8580
1288
3
3095
4193
0
0
1.7
-1.6
-4.0
11.1
13.6
1.5
0.6
-1.5
-0.3
5.1
2.4
-4.3
1.8
-4.2
-14.9
-13.5
-3.3
5.9
96147
87338
2148
280
6381
99190
89482
3238
291
6179
100097
90120
4176
304
5497
101646
91228
4988
314
5116
102897
92089
5613
312
4882
0.8
1.2
-11.1
-2.8
-0.1
-0.3
20.7
-1.1
-0.4
0.4
0.3
6.9
0.8
-1.5
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.3
-1.2
9230
10345
10689
10095
9603
8022
7743
7590
7765
1.5
-1.1
-2.1
0.0
13272
16593
15672
15786
16414
17110
17689
18243
18731
1.7
0.5
0.8
0.6
136214
141436
152315
156523
163626
170499
174433
177684
179434
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.3
36205
24279
11926
36375
21726
41908
36949
21310
15639
36198
24164
44125
36579
22143
14436
42516
21620
51599
35580
20671
14909
45491
25696
49756
36066
20662
15405
47434
28099
52027
37731
21119
16612
48036
29540
55192
38648
21213
17434
48237
30187
57360
39283
21200
18083
48473
30553
59374
39793
21150
18643
48324
30561
60756
0.1
-0.9
1.9
1.6
0.0
2.1
-0.1
-0.7
0.7
1.1
2.7
0.1
0.7
0.3
1.2
0.2
0.7
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.6
9017
67377
23400
25960
774
9686
6905
67964
27098
29456
459
9553
5775
71964
30880
33096
237
10364
4685
71245
33902
36330
207
10153
4108
73693
34188
39500
253
11884
4045
76039
35079
42082
262
12991
4152
76347
35861
43861
277
13934
4076
77104
36533
44967
300
14703
3814
77172
38073
45300
293
14782
-4.4
0.7
2.8
2.5
-11.1
0.7
-3.3
0.2
1.0
1.8
0.6
1.4
0.1
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.9
1.6
-0.8
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.6

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
352.9
40.1
17.1
79.1
55.2
39.2
122.1
344.7
27.6
19.1
76.1
52.2
40.9
129.0
373.5
39.6
19.6
70.1
61.5
32.1
150.6
378.4
46.7
16.6
66.0
64.8
39.2
145.2
378.7
43.1
14.6
66.9
65.0
40.9
148.3
382.8
38.9
13.9
69.1
63.9
41.7
155.3
382.8
36.9
13.1
68.4
63.4
41.3
159.7
369.7
20.7
12.8
67.5
63.4
41.3
164.0
365.2
13.7
12.7
68.3
63.0
41.0
166.6
0.6
-0.1
1.4
-1.2
1.1
-2.0
2.1
0.1
0.8
-2.9
-0.5
0.6
2.5
-0.1
0.1
-1.5
-1.0
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.7
-0.5
-9.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
100.0
97.7
105.9
107.2
107.3
108.5
108.5
104.8
103.5
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
118
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
France: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
56.577
1301.2
174.1
4.00
7365
1.56
6.24
271.2
52.4
57.753
1383.1
173.5
4.15
8499
1.44
5.97
249.3
47.9
58.825
1587.9
163.1
4.40
9112
1.44
6.35
235.2
50.9
60.702
1710.0
161.1
4.54
9399
1.37
6.23
221.3
51.6
61.743
1922.2
146.1
4.55
9897
1.35
6.13
197.0
51.4
62.616
2178.6
132.7
4.62
9982
1.32
6.11
175.7
50.6
63.571
2434.9
120.8
4.63
10024
1.30
6.02
157.2
50.5
64.392
2681.2
109.8
4.57
9862
1.26
5.74
137.9
50.2
65.118
2906.3
99.1
4.42
9699
1.27
5.61
125.7
51.3
0.4
2.0
-0.7
1.0
2.2
-0.8
0.2
-1.4
0.0
0.5
1.9
-1.1
0.3
0.8
-0.7
-0.3
-1.8
0.0
0.3
2.4
-1.9
0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-2.2
0.0
0.2
1.8
-2.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.7
-2.2
0.0
116.3
101.5
125.8
99.1
109.8
96.8
130.8
98.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
91.6
95.8
110.6
89.5
82.5
90.7
107.2
83.3
76.1
83.0
99.3
78.0
69.6
76.0
90.8
72.5
64.1
70.4
83.3
68.1
60.0
65.5
76.7
64.3
-1.5
-0.1
-2.3
0.1
-1.9
-1.0
0.7
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.7
-1.2
0.09
2.17
2.18
1.52
1.81
2.91
0.06
2.11
2.06
1.44
1.69
2.92
0.07
2.06
1.92
1.45
1.48
2.92
0.08
2.01
1.85
1.43
1.53
2.92
0.07
1.96
1.86
1.37
1.45
2.85
0.06
1.94
1.83
1.33
1.41
2.81
0.06
1.91
1.77
1.31
1.37
2.78
0.03
1.89
1.72
1.31
1.35
2.76
0.02
1.89
1.72
1.30
1.34
2.74
-2.4
-0.5
-1.3
-0.5
-2.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-1.9
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
-9.4
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
111945
62547
25092
25016
66
11
0
24306
4205
9912
4408
9128
860
0
0
113154
62570
26102
25313
756
33
0
24482
5546
9150
5210
8975
1147
0
0
117132
62811
29218
25351
3559
68
240
25103
8530
4273
12093
7345
1392
0
0
118179
64567
31384
25405
5621
117
240
22228
7498
4039
11528
5100
1560
0
0
118195
64687
33860
25470
7943
207
240
19647
8017
3774
11342
2160
2372
0
0
113391
55286
34278
25607
8102
329
240
23827
10897
3689
14736
2072
3330
0
0
115085
55372
35308
25778
8748
542
240
24406
11509
2454
13499
4182
4270
0
0
0.5
0.0
1.5
0.1
49.0
20.4
0.3
7.3
-8.1
10.6
-2.1
4.9
0.1
0.3
1.5
0.0
8.4
11.8
0.0
-2.4
-0.6
-1.2
-0.6
-11.5
5.5
-0.3
-1.5
0.4
0.1
1.0
10.1
0.0
2.2
3.7
-4.2
1.8
6.8
6.1
52.2
54.9
57.1
58.1
59.3
61.7
60.1
34.8
3.1
90.9
77.4
13.5
35.5
2.9
89.4
79.1
10.3
48.0
6.7
87.7
74.0
13.7
49.7
6.3
89.3
76.1
13.3
49.2
6.5
90.0
74.7
15.3
59.3
8.8
91.8
74.7
17.0
58.9
8.1
93.8
75.6
18.2
10.8
0.8
9.5
1.0
11.6
4.0
11.8
5.8
13.0
7.2
13.8
8.3
14.5
9.2
1.2
0.9
1.0
2.0
3.2
-0.9
1.3
1.3
0.9
2.1
3.8
0.6
1.1
1.3
0.8
1.7
3.3
1.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
746.0
41.3
599.7
73.9
26.1
4.9
799.7
41.6
654.3
64.6
34.1
5.1
886.4
42.4
713.2
80.7
46.0
4.1
940.3
44.0
749.5
89.7
53.1
3.9
1001.9
46.2
790.8
98.1
63.0
3.8
1070.0
49.2
830.3
109.9
76.9
3.8
1136.5
52.8
866.7
121.1
91.9
4.0
1205.6
56.4
904.1
132.3
108.6
4.3
1273.5
60.0
939.0
142.6
127.4
4.5
13186
13847
15069
15491
16226
17089
17878
18723
19556
1.3
0.7
1.0
0.9

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
211.8
153.5
50.7
7.6
233.0
178.2
48.1
6.6
268.4
204.0
55.3
9.1
254.9
205.3
40.7
8.9
276.6
233.1
34.6
8.8
301.0
257.6
34.7
8.8
325.1
280.3
36.1
8.8
351.2
303.7
38.5
9.0
377.9
327.2
41.5
9.1
2.4
2.9
0.9
1.8
0.3
1.3
-4.6
-0.3
1.6
1.9
0.4
0.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
0.3

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1.7
0.3
1.7
0.9
5.8
-1.7
163
168
169
149
144
138
134
131
130
0.4
-1.6
-0.7
-0.3
41908
384
23233
12587
1150
3839
714
44125
403
22171
14909
1220
4690
731
51599
417
24945
17407
1373
6683
775
49756
424
23052
18419
1264
6291
305
52027
421
23062
19901
1154
7191
298
55192
437
23360
21871
1152
8075
296
57360
456
23189
23536
1108
8767
305
59374
460
22924
25204
1042
9429
315
60756
453
21875
27056
937
10113
321
2.1
0.8
0.7
3.3
1.8
5.7
0.8
0.1
0.1
-0.8
1.3
-1.7
0.7
-9.1
1.0
0.8
0.1
1.7
-0.4
2.0
0.2
0.6
-0.1
-0.6
1.4
-1.7
1.4
0.5
37.7
65.0
35.0
69.4
37.0
70.2
32.1
76.8
31.0
75.7
30.2
76.0
28.9
75.4
27.6
74.4
25.8
73.8
-0.2
0.8
-1.7
0.8
-0.7
0.0
-1.1
-0.2
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
119
APPENDIX 2
Germany: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
186698
125210
3963
13532
37674
6320
1498
4797
6
11
7
141981
78868
3272
15099
37322
7420
1873
5351
147
41
9
133330
59628
3495
15800
43750
10656
1869
7877
804
96
10
135237
56514
5720
14224
42061
16718
1684
12190
2341
365
138
117148
45309
2860
13500
33721
21759
1696
15473
3660
772
158
109381
44266
2530
12000
26138
24448
1788
17231
4177
1077
175
88015
37998
2200
11000
8796
28021
1800
19078
5643
1306
194
78288
37520
0
10000
0
30769
1843
20459
6766
1485
214
78236
37052
0
8500
0
32684
1889
21690
7298
1587
220
-3.3
-7.2
-1.2
1.6
1.5
5.4
2.2
5.1
62.9
24.3
3.4
-1.3
-2.7
-2.0
-1.6
-2.6
7.4
-1.0
7.0
16.4
23.2
32.1
-2.8
-1.7
-2.6
-2.0
-12.6
2.6
0.6
2.1
4.4
5.4
2.1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
164822
2881
120126
88505
31621
41747
68
195060
10931
130810
101168
29643
52904
415
204678
21576
125974
101801
24173
56865
263
214351
26781
122228
113120
9108
65734
-393
215277
31513
115076
111457
3619
68153
535
225276
38702
114225
111121
3104
71412
937
239338
48226
114170
111297
2873
75578
1364
246757
51939
114915
112860
2055
78468
1434
245092
49466
112676
111854
823
81499
1451
2.2
22.3
0.5
1.4
-2.7
3.1
14.5
0.5
3.9
-0.9
0.9
-17.3
1.8
7.4
1.1
4.3
-0.1
0.0
-2.3
1.0
9.8
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-11.8
0.8
0.6

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
354795
131510
124248
54976
37674
68
6320
338258
92177
133627
67298
37322
415
7420
340167
83727
129918
71853
43750
263
10656
345456
82805
123409
80856
42061
-393
16718
329870
76822
115381
81653
33721
535
21759
332024
82967
114122
83412
26138
937
24448
324637
86224
113655
86578
8796
1364
28021
322257
89459
112127
88468
0
1434
30769
320476
86518
109825
89999
0
1451
32684
-0.4
-4.4
0.4
2.7
1.5
14.5
5.4
-0.3
-0.9
-1.2
1.3
-2.6
7.4
7.4
-0.2
1.2
-0.2
0.6
-12.6
9.8
2.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.4
37.1
35.0
15.5
10.6
1.8
27.3
39.5
19.9
11.0
2.2
24.6
38.2
21.1
12.9
3.1
24.0
35.7
23.4
12.2
4.8
23.3
35.0
24.8
10.2
6.6
25.0
34.4
25.1
7.9
7.4
26.6
35.0
26.7
2.7
8.6
27.8
34.8
27.5
0.0
9.5
27.0
34.3
28.1
0.0
10.2
547549
152441
17495
377614
533711
154063
23495
356153
567219
169575
31138
366505
613054
163026
48083
401945
636953
130723
64784
441446
664263
101327
72729
490208
672778
34100
90547
548131
687490
0
104593
582896
693818
0
111710
582108
0.4
1.1
5.9
-0.3
1.2
-2.6
7.6
1.9
0.5
-12.6
3.4
2.2
0.3
93214
75843
2871
12676
1824
0
0
85878
69147
2083
11982
2665
0
0
85253
68066
1108
12906
3174
0
0
92546
66172
2038
19233
5102
0
0
81727
61111
2848
13322
4435
10
0
89104
67737
2131
14262
4953
21
0
98581
71364
2123
19325
5733
36
0
103690
74889
2170
20072
6503
56
0
100961
71766
1747
20375
7011
63
0
-0.9
-1.1
-9.1
0.2
5.7
-0.4
-1.1
9.9
0.3
3.4
1.9
1.6
-2.9
3.8
2.6
14.0
0.2
0.1
-1.9
0.5
2.0
5.6
164613
106658
0
6389
51565
140203
116715
31
3638
19819
136936
119856
222
1435
15423
144522
127082
1942
873
14625
141712
121868
4173
2980
12691
141167
121098
5436
2898
11735
140166
120604
6436
2298
10829
139220
119539
7056
2726
9899
138593
118058
7538
3756
9241
-1.8
1.2
-13.9
-11.4
0.3
0.2
34.1
7.6
-1.9
-0.1
-0.1
4.4
-2.6
-1.6
-0.1
-0.2
1.6
5.0
-1.6
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
-1.2
-0.3
-2.5
1.6
0.5
1.3
2.6
2.0
1.3
0.6
1.6
2.1
0.6
15384
14906
14242
15144
13597
13245
12715
12605
12415
-0.8
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
Non-Energy Uses
23249
22912
25272
24779
24738
24784
24783
24377
23961
0.8
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
228372
222379
220163
218010
223580
228220
229460
231126
231866
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.1
72116
49422
22693
58400
39361
58494
61981
42778
19203
62212
35275
62910
59715
40359
19356
61905
32547
65997
56706
38652
18053
65931
33416
61958
56510
38089
18421
68107
35103
63860
56106
37447
18659
69199
36482
66433
55006
36386
18619
69910
36515
68029
54763
35720
19043
70709
36482
69173
54608
35194
19414
71617
36276
69365
-1.9
-2.0
-1.6
0.6
-1.9
1.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
1.0
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
-0.1
-0.3
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.2
38693
96422
42724
38391
9150
2991
14917
104474
52595
38912
8747
2734
10951
98052
58030
41496
6831
4804
9639
87411
61814
44497
7428
7222
9778
81797
65839
47627
7965
10575
9760
81695
66481
50269
8231
11784
9740
81530
65173
51625
8633
12760
9515
81374
65370
52783
8684
13400
8798
80768
66132
53320
8762
14086
-11.9
0.2
3.1
0.8
-2.9
4.9
-1.1
-1.8
1.3
1.4
1.5
8.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.8
0.8
1.9
-1.0
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
1.0

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
959.8
375.1
26.2
170.5
134.3
84.7
168.9
860.5
328.9
27.7
130.6
127.4
64.1
181.9
823.3
316.2
27.1
118.3
117.7
53.1
190.9
804.8
325.0
28.9
105.6
120.0
51.1
174.3
764.1
296.8
24.1
98.8
118.1
51.3
175.0
790.5
323.3
23.3
94.8
117.4
52.0
179.8
810.8
348.0
22.8
89.0
117.4
50.7
182.9
825.6
365.2
21.8
86.2
117.7
49.5
185.3
813.1
356.3
21.2
82.7
119.0
49.0
184.9
-1.5
-1.7
0.3
-3.6
-1.3
-4.6
1.2
-0.7
-0.6
-1.2
-1.8
0.0
-0.3
-0.9
0.6
1.6
-0.5
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-0.7
0.1
-0.3
0.1
100.0
89.7
85.8
83.9
79.6
82.4
84.5
86.0
84.7
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
120
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Germany: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
79.113
1824.8
194.4
4.48
6921
2.71
12.13
526.0
46.1
81.539
1965.3
172.1
4.15
6545
2.54
10.55
437.8
57.3
82.163
2170.7
156.7
4.14
6904
2.42
10.02
379.3
59.8
82.501
2241.0
154.2
4.19
7431
2.33
9.76
359.1
61.6
82.627
2470.6
133.5
3.99
7709
2.32
9.25
309.3
64.8
82.864
2712.0
122.4
4.01
8016
2.38
9.54
291.5
67.3
82.676
2927.4
110.9
3.93
8137
2.50
9.81
277.0
73.1
82.108
3117.5
103.4
3.92
8373
2.56
10.06
264.8
75.9
81.146
3277.3
97.8
3.95
8550
2.54
10.02
248.1
75.8
0.4
1.8
-2.1
-0.8
0.0
-1.1
-1.9
-3.2
0.0
0.1
1.3
-1.6
-0.4
1.1
-0.4
-0.8
-2.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
-1.8
-0.2
0.5
0.8
0.6
-1.1
0.0
-0.2
1.1
-1.3
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
-1.1
0.0
132.2
113.6
155.1
105.4
116.0
109.8
123.5
105.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
88.5
105.3
97.3
90.9
79.1
99.8
92.1
85.0
71.6
93.4
86.2
80.6
64.6
88.0
79.4
76.4
60.1
83.9
74.1
73.0
56.7
80.8
69.8
69.6
-2.8
-1.3
-4.3
-0.5
-2.3
0.0
-0.8
-1.6
-2.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.1
-1.3
-0.8
-1.3
-0.9
0.56
2.45
2.36
2.30
2.15
2.89
0.51
2.27
2.11
2.05
1.82
2.89
0.48
2.18
1.98
1.90
1.63
2.89
0.46
2.07
1.86
1.82
1.53
2.81
0.40
1.98
1.75
1.73
1.46
2.74
0.42
1.95
1.69
1.70
1.42
2.71
0.44
1.92
1.62
1.68
1.39
2.69
0.46
1.90
1.57
1.66
1.36
2.68
0.44
1.88
1.51
1.66
1.35
2.67
-1.4
-1.1
-1.8
-1.9
-2.7
0.0
-1.8
-0.9
-1.2
-0.9
-1.1
-0.5
1.0
-0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
112509
21301
9611
3408
6113
90
0
81597
40073
47883
24817
7114
1783
0
0
122874
20680
23545
3580
18428
1537
0
78649
37870
45326
24439
6403
2481
0
0
138449
15608
30352
3661
23993
2697
0
92490
32996
49646
30665
8205
3971
0
2
142767
12165
33062
3732
25707
3624
0
97539
34136
52958
35726
5120
3731
0
5
151017
4105
40539
3790
32446
4303
0
106372
40829
53501
43226
4377
5260
0
8
155562
0
45834
3828
37177
4829
0
109728
39067
56441
44589
3492
5194
0
12
152045
0
44382
3862
35254
5266
0
107664
36200
52155
46413
3338
5744
0
14
2.1
-3.1
12.2
0.7
14.7
40.5
0.9
-12.5
2.9
0.3
3.1
4.8
0.1
1.3
-1.9
0.4
2.1
1.4
8.3
1.4
2.2
0.8
3.5
-6.1
2.9
0.1
-1.2
-0.3
0.7
-2.7
0.9
13.8
5.6
53.7
53.1
49.1
49.8
47.7
47.2
48.8
37.0
16.9
37.1
29.9
7.2
37.4
15.5
37.6
26.6
11.0
46.5
21.2
34.0
20.5
13.5
47.3
22.4
30.2
15.3
14.9
47.8
28.9
22.9
5.1
17.9
48.3
28.2
20.1
0.0
20.1
49.6
28.5
21.3
0.0
21.3
3.9
0.4
5.9
3.7
8.5
6.6
9.3
8.3
10.9
9.6
11.8
10.4
12.6
11.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.6
3.9
0.5
0.9
1.0
0.6
2.3
2.4
0.7

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
0.9
0.2
0.8
2.0

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
889.5
73.1
702.1
76.1
34.3
3.8
1041.7
68.5
838.2
85.4
46.2
3.4
1081.9
69.0
858.2
90.0
62.0
2.7
1142.4
68.2
911.1
90.2
70.5
2.5
1235.6
66.3
988.9
92.7
85.3
2.4
1336.2
69.4
1059.8
99.5
105.0
2.5
1422.0
73.9
1111.8
108.4
125.4
2.5
1497.8
78.1
1151.6
121.7
143.8
2.6
1559.2
82.0
1180.1
135.8
158.5
2.7
11243
12775
13167
13847
14954
16125
17200
18242
19214
1.6
1.3
1.4
1.1

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
352.9
196.4
101.7
54.8
371.3
237.8
69.5
64.0
424.7
280.7
77.5
66.5
463.9
310.1
89.7
64.1
503.8
336.3
100.9
66.6
540.7
361.3
108.9
70.5
574.0
387.8
111.7
74.5
603.8
411.7
113.6
78.5
629.9
433.2
114.7
82.0
1.9
3.6
-2.7
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.7
0.0
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.1
0.3
1.0

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
2.0
-0.6
2.0
1.7
6.1
-3.6
1.3
-0.4
1.4
0.3
3.2
-0.9
193
189
196
207
204
199
196
194
192
0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
58494
656
38247
11518
2111
5307
656
62910
611
40001
13643
2126
5975
554
65997
612
39981
15834
1946
7345
279
61958
529
36421
14528
1858
8304
318
63860
475
36595
14634
1986
9843
327
66433
474
36866
15258
2037
11455
343
68029
489
36347
16214
1907
12715
358
69173
499
35878
17107
1711
13604
373
69365
516
35272
17458
1436
14297
387
1.2
-0.7
0.4
3.2
-0.8
3.3
-8.2
-0.3
-2.5
-0.9
-0.8
0.2
3.0
1.6
0.6
0.3
-0.1
1.0
-0.4
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.5
-0.3
0.7
-2.8
1.2
0.8
50.2
39.2
45.2
42.6
44.7
41.5
39.9
35.3
38.2
33.0
36.7
32.1
35.0
31.7
33.6
31.3
32.3
30.2
-1.2
0.6
-1.6
-2.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.8
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
121
APPENDIX 2
Greece: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
9152
7077
832
138
0
1105
152
893
0
56
3
9740
7911
459
44
0
1326
303
935
3
82
3
10010
8222
280
42
0
1466
318
1010
39
99
2
10315
8538
100
18
0
1659
431
1015
109
102
1
11031
8690
98
34
0
2208
418
1392
254
142
2
9319
6529
100
0
0
2691
426
1580
457
213
16
10304
7037
100
0
0
3167
431
1820
581
274
62
10504
7039
0
0
0
3466
435
2056
597
316
62
10340
6292
0
0
0
4048
439
2206
938
350
114
0.9
1.5
-10.3
-11.2
1.0
0.6
-9.9
-2.2
-0.7
-2.1
0.2
0.0
-1.1
2.9
7.6
1.2
74.8
5.8
-4.7
4.2
2.8
3.3
20.7
3.7
4.3
3.7
0.3
2.7
8.6
6.8
38.1
2.5
0.2
1.9
4.9
2.5
6.4
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
15415
988
14366
14757
-391
0
61
18207
925
17214
16955
259
0
69
21982
768
19527
20439
-912
1689
-1
23336
371
20307
19352
955
2332
325
26109
225
21298
20807
491
4320
266
28947
1074
22392
21822
570
5241
240
29870
1083
22821
22219
602
5750
216
30677
1225
22906
22309
597
6352
195
30787
1391
22735
22228
507
6485
175
3.6
-2.5
3.1
3.3
1.7
-11.6
0.9
0.2
1.4
17.0
0.7
0.7
2.1
2.9
-2.1
0.3
2.5
0.0
0.0
-1.7
1.2
-2.1

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
22278
8091
12883
138
0
61
1105
24174
8783
13952
44
0
69
1326
28140
9040
15929
1705
0
-1
1466
31240
8952
17951
2354
0
325
1659
34033
8915
18290
4354
0
266
2208
34946
7603
19171
5241
0
240
2691
36679
8120
19425
5750
0
216
3167
37544
8264
19268
6352
0
195
3466
37380
7683
18989
6485
0
175
4048
2.4
1.1
2.1
28.6
1.9
-0.1
1.4
9.8
0.8
-0.9
0.6
2.8
0.2
-0.6
-0.2
1.2
2.9
4.2
-2.1
3.7
-2.1
2.5
36.3
57.8
0.6
0.0
5.0
36.3
57.7
0.2
0.0
5.5
32.1
56.6
6.1
0.0
5.2
28.7
57.5
7.5
0.0
5.3
26.2
53.7
12.8
0.0
6.5
21.8
54.9
15.0
0.0
7.7
22.1
53.0
15.7
0.0
8.6
22.0
51.3
16.9
0.0
9.2
20.6
50.8
17.3
0.0
10.8
34767
0
1769
32998
41291
0
3562
37728
53415
0
4143
49272
59416
0
6283
53133
68877
0
7885
60993
74475
0
10658
63817
80002
0
12371
67631
84632
0
12832
71800
88151
0
17086
71065
4.4
2.6
1.5
1.0
8.9
4.1
6.6
2.2
4.6
1.0
3.3
0.5
8617
6890
1708
18
0
0
0
9937
7810
2075
14
38
0
0
11614
8234
2036
1280
64
0
0
12403
8693
2053
1605
52
0
0
13145
8565
1359
3166
53
1
0
12529
7249
1556
3635
75
14
0
13236
7761
1357
3906
152
60
0
13696
7900
1066
4391
278
60
0
13184
7317
985
4467
302
113
0
3.0
1.8
1.8
53.1
1.2
0.4
-4.0
9.5
-1.8
0.1
-1.0
0.0
2.1
11.1
47.9
0.0
-0.6
-3.2
1.4
7.1
6.5
16698
16621
0
0
77
17913
17860
0
0
52
22435
22404
0
0
30
21508
21415
0
0
93
21565
21249
243
0
73
22746
22259
420
0
67
23303
22658
585
0
60
23443
22653
734
0
56
23456
22567
837
0
52
3.0
3.0
-0.4
-0.5
0.8
0.6
9.2
0.1
0.0
3.6
-8.8
9.2
-1.9
-1.4
1196
1174
1637
1758
1673
1696
1734
1776
1746
3.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
651
441
689
711
703
703
715
725
722
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
14509
15801
18513
20742
23034
24684
25899
26535
26780
2.5
2.2
1.2
0.3
3942
2534
1408
3048
1711
5808
4107
2489
1618
3323
1940
6431
4437
2693
1744
4470
2410
7196
4132
2526
1607
5467
3075
8068
4071
2525
1546
6370
3480
9113
4203
2619
1584
6935
3769
9777
4302
2684
1618
7342
4000
10255
4318
2693
1625
7528
4110
10579
4369
2706
1663
7571
4182
10657
1.2
0.6
2.2
3.9
3.5
2.2
-0.9
-0.6
-1.2
3.6
3.7
2.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
1053
10041
15
2448
0
952
1074
10799
14
2931
0
982
888
12584
257
3710
28
1046
446
14219
585
4377
49
1066
326
15321
843
5075
43
1425
333
15924
1297
5487
48
1594
339
16402
1483
5863
52
1760
346
16536
1587
6154
62
1851
349
16343
1646
6420
56
1965
-1.7
2.3
33.0
4.2
0.9
-9.5
2.0
12.6
3.2
4.5
3.1
0.4
0.7
5.8
1.5
1.9
2.1
0.3
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.1
71.2
34.1
2.6
9.4
4.6
3.3
17.2
78.3
39.0
2.3
10.0
4.7
3.2
19.0
89.2
43.7
3.4
10.1
7.4
3.4
21.2
96.2
46.3
3.6
8.6
9.6
4.2
23.8
100.2
47.3
3.3
7.9
11.2
4.3
26.3
99.3
43.4
3.5
7.8
12.3
4.5
27.8
103.3
45.5
3.5
7.8
12.9
4.7
28.9
104.7
46.3
3.5
7.8
13.0
4.7
29.5
101.7
43.7
3.5
7.7
12.6
4.6
29.5
2.3
2.5
2.9
0.7
4.9
0.1
2.1
1.2
0.8
-0.4
-2.5
4.2
2.4
2.2
0.3
-0.4
0.6
-0.1
1.5
1.0
0.9
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
100.0
109.9
125.3
135.1
140.8
139.5
145.1
147.1
142.9
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
9.8
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
122
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Greece: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
10.121
115.8
192.3
2.20
3435
3.20
7.03
614.6
62.1
10.595
123.2
196.1
2.28
3897
3.24
7.39
635.0
65.7
10.904
146.0
192.7
2.58
4899
3.17
8.18
610.9
69.3
11.083
181.1
172.5
2.82
5361
3.08
8.68
531.2
68.5
11.243
215.3
158.1
3.03
6126
2.95
8.92
465.5
70.3
11.390
250.5
139.5
3.07
6539
2.84
8.72
396.6
75.6
11.427
284.2
129.1
3.21
7001
2.82
9.04
363.6
74.4
11.394
315.7
118.9
3.30
7428
2.79
9.19
331.7
74.5
11.316
341.2
109.5
3.30
7790
2.72
8.99
298.1
74.9
0.7
2.3
0.0
1.6
3.6
-0.1
1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.3
4.0
-2.0
1.6
2.3
-0.7
0.9
-2.7
0.0
0.2
2.8
-2.0
0.6
1.3
-0.4
0.1
-2.4
0.0
-0.1
1.8
-1.6
0.3
1.1
-0.3
-0.1
-2.0
0.0
90.0
85.0
88.4
101.7
100.8
84.6
93.9
105.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.0
100.5
103.9
90.4
70.7
100.5
99.1
85.9
65.2
95.3
92.5
79.2
60.4
89.8
86.7
73.2
56.8
83.5
80.0
68.0
54.5
78.1
75.1
63.4
1.1
1.6
1.2
-0.2
-3.4
0.1
-0.1
-1.5
-1.6
-1.1
-1.3
-1.6
-1.0
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
0.98
2.38
2.39
1.51
1.96
2.96
0.94
2.34
2.43
1.43
1.65
2.96
0.81
2.28
2.28
1.66
1.40
2.95
0.77
2.23
2.09
1.76
1.36
2.95
0.68
2.15
1.94
1.75
1.23
2.88
0.58
2.12
1.85
1.78
1.20
2.85
0.56
2.10
1.81
1.76
1.17
2.82
0.54
2.07
1.80
1.72
1.13
2.79
0.49
2.04
1.77
1.67
1.10
2.77
-1.9
-0.4
-0.5
0.9
-3.3
0.0
-1.7
-0.5
-1.6
0.6
-1.3
-0.2
-1.9
-0.3
-0.7
0.0
-0.4
-0.2
-1.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
11361
0
3233
3043
189
1
0
8128
340
4505
1134
2487
2
0
0
13277
0
3744
3165
573
5
0
9533
381
4798
1876
2827
31
0
0
15880
0
4521
3235
1226
60
0
11359
477
4796
3344
3145
66
0
8
18753
0
5722
3386
2012
324
0
13031
744
4389
5639
2926
70
0
8
19889
0
6637
3461
2683
494
0
13252
847
4389
5929
2774
132
0
28
21131
0
6951
3514
2759
678
0
14179
966
4433
6940
2610
170
0
28
23956
0
8873
3549
4448
877
0
15083
951
3897
8878
2033
177
0
98
3.4
2.3
1.9
3.4
0.6
20.6
46.8
3.9
0.7
8.1
23.6
2.9
0.3
5.2
5.9
3.4
3.4
0.6
11.4
2.4
45.2
1.6
5.9
-0.9
5.9
-1.2
7.1
1.3
1.2
-1.2
4.1
-3.1
3.0
13.3
13.3
49.7
47.4
46.5
42.9
43.5
43.2
39.9
36.5
1.2
8.8
0.0
8.8
36.8
1.5
10.9
0.0
10.9
39.9
3.0
11.8
0.0
11.8
43.8
4.7
14.8
0.0
14.8
43.9
5.2
16.5
0.0
16.5
45.1
5.8
16.8
0.0
16.8
46.4
5.5
21.2
0.0
21.2
7.5
0.0
7.5
0.0
9.0
2.6
10.0
4.1
11.0
5.3
11.6
6.3
13.3
7.2
1.7
0.2
1.8
2.3
2.3
0.3
0.7
0.1
0.7
1.5
1.3
0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
75.3
17.7
32.2
2.8
15.5
7.0
91.5
20.2
41.3
2.3
19.9
7.9
116.2
21.7
58.6
3.1
24.1
8.7
141.2
21.4
80.0
3.4
27.7
8.7
160.1
21.4
94.1
3.8
32.0
8.9
176.1
21.5
105.2
4.2
36.2
9.0
188.8
21.8
113.0
4.7
40.1
9.1
197.5
22.0
118.1
5.1
43.0
9.2
203.3
22.1
120.8
5.5
45.6
9.3
7438
8641
10660
12741
14244
15458
16523
17330
17962
3.7
2.9
1.5
0.8

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
19.8
12.5
0.6
6.6
22.0
14.6
0.3
7.1
26.6
17.5
0.4
8.7
32.7
22.0
0.6
10.1
38.1
26.0
0.8
11.4
43.0
29.6
0.9
12.6
47.3
32.8
1.0
13.5
50.6
35.6
1.1
13.9
53.1
37.8
1.2
14.1
3.0
3.4
-3.5
2.8
3.6
4.0
6.2
2.7
2.2
2.4
3.0
1.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
0.5
4.4
2.0
6.2
0.9
4.5
2.1
3.3
-0.2
4.8
2.0
2.9
0.2
171
178
182
181
177
172
166
160
156
0.7
-0.3
-0.6
-0.7

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
5808
154
1404
2345
75
1264
566
6431
175
1704
2726
57
1226
544
7196
175
2243
2902
60
1325
491
8068
153
2913
3120
58
1181
643
9113
149
3335
3610
63
1289
668
9777
142
3492
3966
68
1423
687
10255
142
3609
4220
76
1506
702
10579
139
3666
4447
77
1543
707
10657
131
3533
4643
72
1574
704
2.2
1.3
4.8
2.2
-2.2
0.5
-1.4
2.4
-1.6
4.0
2.2
0.5
-0.3
3.1
1.2
-0.5
0.8
1.6
1.9
1.6
0.5
0.4
-0.8
-0.2
1.0
-0.5
0.4
0.0

43.6
127.8
38.8
130.9
35.6
114.6
33.6
101.5
33.0
100.6
31.6
97.9
30.6
94.9
29.7
93.3
28.3
92.5
-2.0
-1.1
-0.8
-1.3
-0.8
-0.6
-0.8
-0.3
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
123
APPENDIX 2
Hungary: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
14146
3948
2320
3812
3544
523
15
422
0
0
86
13456
3095
2329
3788
3618
626
14
526
0
0
86
11207
2893
1665
2475
3658
516
15
415
0
0
86
10514
1748
1655
2331
3569
1212
17
1105
1
2
87
10236
1720
1200
2200
3787
1328
16
1201
6
13
93
10090
1725
1000
2000
3863
1503
16
1377
8
21
81
10278
1734
1000
1900
3940
1704
17
1534
17
74
62
10221
1738
900
1800
3972
1811
17
1605
32
105
52
10256
1741
800
1700
3972
2044
17
1785
48
148
46
-2.3
-3.1
-3.3
-4.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
-5.1
-3.2
-1.2
0.3
9.9
0.4
11.2
0.0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
14436
1686
6621
6475
146
5170
958
12629
1395
5496
5937
-441
5532
207
14011
1081
5352
5866
-514
7283
296
17558
1340
5875
6167
-291
9807
535
18736
1200
6609
6679
-71
10389
539
20670
1103
7583
7614
-31
11633
351
22075
1198
7924
7939
-15
12651
302
22849
1162
8127
8138
-11
13339
222
23384
1321
8335
8342
-7
13541
187
-0.3
-4.3
-2.1
-1.0

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
28641
5969
8734
8913
3544
958
523
25864
4549
7689
9175
3618
207
626
25000
3967
6907
9657
3658
296
516
27920
3090
7420
12094
3569
535
1212
28972
2920
7809
12589
3787
539
1328
30760
2827
8583
13633
3863
351
1503
32353
2931
8924
14551
3940
302
1704
33070
2900
9027
15139
3972
222
1811
33640
3062
9135
15241
3972
187
2044
20.8
30.5
31.1
12.4
1.8
17.6
29.7
35.5
14.0
2.4
15.9
27.6
38.6
14.6
2.1
11.1
26.6
43.3
12.8
4.3
10.1
27.0
43.5
13.1
4.6
9.2
27.9
44.3
12.6
4.9
9.1
27.6
45.0
12.2
5.3
8.8
27.3
45.8
12.0
5.5
9.1
27.2
45.3
11.8
6.1
28431
13729
178
14524
34011
14023
163
19824
35185
14177
178
20829
35749
13832
213
21704
40520
14678
251
25590
47085
14971
293
31821
52708
15271
415
37022
57136
15394
608
41133
4970
2871
440
1636
24
0
0
6113
2977
1447
1634
55
0
0
5985
2731
1052
2140
62
0
0
5659
1924
122
3078
534
0
0
5289
1965
4
3020
299
0
0
6008
1971
163
3567
306
0
0
6604
2010
142
4116
336
0
0
11679
8831
0
1145
1704
10680
8500
0
789
1392
9226
7588
0
471
1168
9831
8390
0
629
813
10430
9064
198
467
701
11393
9914
280
555
644
1402
1310
1162
1581
1642
Non-Energy Uses
1569
1609
1586
2282
2503
19258
15814
15998
18098
6523
4160
2364
6437
3273
3024
3808
2691
1116
5911
3442
2653
3489
2563
926
5465
3792
3252
2502
6009
5941
2811
1570
425
965
4147
6370
2500
1287
545
65.5
20.5
2.5
14.7
13.7
5.6
8.6
100.0
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
0.8
0.0
0.1
-1.8
-1.5
0.4
2.5
0.4
2.5
12.1
19.3
-3.9
0.0
0.0
-2.2
-1.1
0.1
1.8
0.4
1.5
10.8
7.1
-3.1
2.9
1.0
2.1
1.3
1.7
0.0
1.8
1.7
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.5
3.5
-11.1
3.6
6.2
2.0
-5.6
0.7
-4.7
-1.4
-4.0
-2.3
0.8
0.3
-11.1
-0.1
1.5
-3.0
1.2
2.7
0.3
6.2
9.9
1.1
0.0
1.3
1.5
0.4
-5.6
2.5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.1
-4.7
1.8
60453
15394
836
44223
2.2
0.3
0.0
3.7
1.4
0.3
3.5
2.1
2.7
0.4
5.1
3.8
1.4
0.1
7.3
1.8
6897
2007
15
4556
320
0
0
7306
2192
15
4657
442
0
0
1.9
-0.5
9.1
2.7
10.2
-1.2
-3.2
-42.4
3.5
17.0
2.2
0.2
42.2
3.1
1.2
1.0
0.9
-19.9
1.2
2.8
11854
10233
415
589
616
12034
10307
505
647
576
12087
10375
563
614
535
-2.3
-1.5
1.2
1.8
-8.5
-3.7
-0.1
-5.0
1.3
1.2
7.7
2.3
-1.3
0.2
0.1
3.1
0.4
-1.4
1724
1791
1824
1843
-1.9
3.5
0.9
0.3
2660
2723
2754
2783
0.1
4.7
0.8
0.2
19732
20934
21984
22743
23133
-1.8
2.1
1.1
0.5
3427
2328
1099
6411
4085
4175
3486
2277
1209
7079
4470
4697
3660
2335
1326
7278
4795
5201
3869
2445
1424
7424
5081
5610
4028
2515
1513
7525
5241
5949
4201
2598
1603
7540
5295
6098
-6.1
-4.7
-8.9
-1.6
1.5
0.7
0.0
-1.2
2.7
2.6
1.7
3.7
1.0
0.7
1.6
0.5
1.3
1.8
0.8
0.6
1.2
0.2
0.4
0.8
793
4173
6503
2658
1440
430
692
4792
7852
2823
1297
642
598
5131
8334
3228
1469
972
555
5610
8630
3580
1474
1085
527
5919
9023
3969
1337
1209
527
6214
8997
4242
1462
1300
511
6312
9025
4485
1424
1377
-10.9
-3.6
0.9
-0.6
-0.9
0.1
-2.8
2.1
2.5
2.0
0.2
8.5
-1.3
1.4
0.8
2.1
-0.9
2.2
-0.3
0.6
0.0
1.2
0.6
1.3
56.8
23.0
2.2
8.7
9.9
5.5
7.6
53.6
21.0
1.5
6.4
9.0
6.2
9.4
55.0
17.3
1.9
6.3
10.5
6.7
12.2
56.5
16.6
2.5
5.9
11.4
7.0
13.3
60.5
18.4
2.6
6.2
11.2
7.4
14.6
63.9
20.0
2.7
7.0
10.9
7.8
15.5
65.3
20.8
2.7
7.1
10.6
8.0
16.3
66.5
21.7
2.7
7.0
10.5
8.0
16.6
-2.0
0.2
-4.9
-7.9
-4.1
1.1
0.9
0.5
-2.4
5.2
-0.9
2.4
1.2
3.5
1.2
1.9
0.9
1.7
-0.4
1.1
1.6
0.4
0.8
-0.3
0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.7
86.7
81.8
84.0
86.3
92.3
97.5
99.7
101.5
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
124
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Hungary: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
10.375
64.1
446.6
2.76
2740
2.29
6.32
1021.7
50.4
10.337
57.4
450.3
2.50
3290
2.20
5.50
989.5
48.8
10.222
71.8
348.1
2.45
3442
2.14
5.24
746.0
56.0
10.098
88.8
314.4
2.76
3540
1.97
5.45
619.5
62.9
9.969
104.8
276.6
2.91
4065
1.95
5.67
539.8
64.7
9.834
125.6
244.9
3.13
4788
1.97
6.15
481.7
67.2
9.693
147.4
219.4
3.34
5438
1.97
6.59
433.3
68.2
9.588
169.9
194.7
3.45
5959
1.98
6.81
384.7
69.1
9.484
191.6
175.6
3.55
6374
1.98
7.01
347.1
69.5
-0.1
1.1
-2.5
-1.2
2.3
-0.7
-1.8
-3.1
0.0
-0.3
3.8
-2.3
1.7
1.7
-0.9
0.8
-3.2
0.0
-0.3
3.5
-2.3
1.4
3.0
0.1
1.5
-2.2
0.0
-0.2
2.7
-2.2
0.6
1.6
0.0
0.6
-2.2
0.0
273.5
121.1
85.5
104.1
170.7
125.3
106.1
102.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
80.6
86.0
85.5
103.8
70.8
80.8
79.9
99.0
63.9
69.6
72.0
91.5
59.4
60.7
65.0
84.0
54.8
53.6
58.2
77.3
52.0
47.8
51.9
70.3
-9.6
-1.9
1.6
-0.4
-3.4
-2.1
-2.2
-0.1
-1.7
-2.8
-2.0
-1.6
-1.3
-2.4
-2.2
-1.8
0.42
2.21
2.25
2.13
1.70
2.84
0.45
2.00
2.28
1.68
1.59
2.85
0.39
1.94
1.85
1.64
1.64
2.90
0.33
1.97
1.84
1.64
1.64
2.92
0.27
1.90
1.69
1.61
1.56
2.82
0.27
1.88
1.69
1.54
1.55
2.80
0.28
1.87
1.80
1.47
1.53
2.76
0.27
1.84
1.76
1.40
1.53
2.74
0.27
1.82
1.67
1.40
1.52
2.72
-0.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.6
-0.3
0.2
-3.5
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.6
-0.9
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
7789
1708
45
44
1
0
0
6036
1915
1683
3516
762
76
0
0
8587
1730
64
46
18
0
0
6793
2391
1592
4572
313
316
0
0
10359
1756
110
46
61
3
0
8493
2489
1735
6089
322
348
0
0
10574
1781
161
61
86
14
0
8632
2824
1356
6682
254
340
0
0
9932
1794
312
71
211
30
0
7827
2781
901
6368
219
338
0
0
10241
1794
556
95
406
55
0
7891
2557
1129
6002
224
535
0
0
11044
1794
884
143
639
102
0
8366
2552
1182
6332
264
589
0
0
2.9
0.3
9.4
0.5
52.4
-0.4
0.2
11.0
4.4
13.2
27.2
1.1
0.0
11.0
7.2
11.7
13.1
3.5
2.7
0.3
5.6
-8.3
16.5
-0.8
1.1
-6.3
0.4
-3.8
-0.3
0.7
-0.9
2.7
-0.1
1.9
5.7
47.3
44.1
42.3
48.6
58.0
61.0
59.9
29.9
24.5
41.4
40.3
1.1
33.0
28.3
45.9
38.7
7.2
41.6
31.6
41.1
36.2
4.9
45.5
27.5
36.1
31.8
4.3
48.2
23.2
33.0
29.0
4.0
51.3
27.0
31.1
26.9
4.1
52.1
25.7
30.7
25.5
5.2
2.9
0.0
4.7
0.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
7.7
7.9
8.4
0.8
-0.6
1.5
-0.2
3.1
1.9
-1.0
2.9
-0.1
5.1
1.7
-0.7
2.1
0.2
4.5

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
82.0
19.3
47.3
13.9
1.6
0.0
75.2
16.6
45.7
10.9
1.9
0.0
80.0
18.7
46.6
12.3
2.4
0.0
80.3
18.2
47.2
12.2
2.7
0.0
86.9
17.6
54.0
12.0
3.3
0.0
95.4
16.6
62.6
12.0
4.2
0.0
105.2
15.9
72.0
11.9
5.4
0.0
114.8
15.3
80.9
11.8
6.8
0.0
124.2
14.7
88.8
12.2
8.4
0.0
7905
7274
7829
7954
8719
9705
10855
11976
13092
-0.1
1.1
2.2
1.9

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
34.0
15.2
16.8
2.0
22.2
13.8
8.4
0.0
27.9
19.1
8.8
0.0
35.8
25.2
8.6
2.1
42.1
30.9
8.8
2.4
48.1
36.4
9.1
2.7
53.6
41.3
9.4
2.9
58.4
45.5
9.7
3.2
61.8
48.4
10.1
3.3
-1.9
2.4
-6.3
4.2
4.9
0.0
2.5
2.9
0.7
2.0
1.4
1.6
0.7
1.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-1.2
4.3
530
387
389
403
402
383
364
344
323
-3.1
0.3
-1.0
-1.2

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
3024
160
1482
938
271
164
9
2653
124
1462
695
190
182
0
3252
149
1824
886
175
219
0
4175
167
2321
1297
159
230
1
4697
156
2571
1551
149
269
1
5201
140
2813
1779
142
326
1
5610
126
3010
1955
129
388
1
5949
113
3155
2109
114
456
1
6098
102
3149
2230
88
527
2
0.7
-0.7
2.1
-0.6
-4.3
2.9
3.7
0.4
3.5
5.8
-1.6
2.1
1.8
-2.1
1.6
2.3
-1.4
3.7
1.8
0.8
-2.1
0.5
1.3
-3.8
3.1
1.1

22.6
34.4
24.2
37.7
28.0
36.4
34.5
39.3
35.0
39.4
34.7
39.2
33.8
38.3
32.7
37.6
30.6
37.1
2.1
0.5
2.3
0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-1.0
-0.3
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
125
APPENDIX 2
Ireland: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
3353
1312
0
1873
0
168
60
108
0
0
0
4020
1606
0
2249
0
165
61
102
1
0
0
2175
959
0
958
0
258
73
164
21
0
0
1650
789
0
461
0
401
54
250
96
0
0
1962
757
0
498
0
708
74
370
252
12
0
2242
743
0
568
0
931
77
469
349
36
0
2436
728
0
575
0
1133
80
587
415
51
0
2664
716
0
583
0
1365
82
685
536
61
0
2673
672
0
500
0
1501
83
783
568
67
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
7074
2064
5010
2018
2992
0
0
7604
1823
5698
2260
3438
85
-1
12234
1789
7959
3002
4957
2478
8
13620
1969
8466
3297
5168
3010
176
15928
2055
10543
3645
6898
3250
80
16363
2294
10203
3558
6645
3709
86
16887
2651
10259
3554
6705
3756
95
16848
2377
10413
3583
6830
3808
103
16969
2148
10435
3568
6867
4106
112

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
10225
3416
4768
1873
0
0
168
10844
2775
5571
2334
0
-1
165
14319
2711
7906
3436
0
8
258
15121
2685
8390
3470
0
176
401
17771
2812
10423
3748
0
80
708
18477
3037
10075
4277
0
86
1002
19188
3379
10125
4331
0
95
1259
19372
3093
10274
4391
0
103
1511
19500
2820
10293
4606
0
112
1669
33.4
46.6
18.3
0.0
1.6
25.6
51.4
21.5
0.0
1.5
18.9
55.2
24.0
0.0
1.8
17.8
55.5
22.9
0.0
2.6
15.8
58.7
21.1
0.0
4.0
16.4
54.5
23.2
0.0
5.4
17.6
52.8
22.6
0.0
6.6
16.0
53.0
22.7
0.0
7.8
14.5
52.8
23.6
0.0
8.6
14226
0
697
13530
17601
0
729
16872
23669
0
1090
22579
24992
0
1743
23249
31679
0
3799
27879
34234
0
4965
29270
36744
0
5776
30968
37867
0
7216
30651
38723
0
7614
31110

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
3019
1839
339
841
0
0
0
3711
2028
622
1060
0
0
0
4792
1925
1019
1825
24
0
0
4747
1903
774
2040
30
0
0
5223
2177
933
2035
77
0
0
5186
2461
226
2415
84
0
0
5379
2881
16
2379
102
0
0
5100
2663
0
2299
138
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
1939
1742
0
0
197
2429
2263
0
0
167
3481
3310
0
0
171
3472
3336
1
0
135
3859
3645
132
0
82
3877
3558
254
0
66
3997
3554
396
0
47
168
185
246
380
363
363
373
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind

Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
-4.2
-3.1
-1.0
-2.3
2.2
-0.4
0.9
-0.8
-6.5
-6.3
1.5
-1.4
4.4
2.0
4.3
10.6
0.2
8.5
28.2
51.1
-8.4
4.8
0.7
4.7
5.1
15.8
-0.7
2.9
0.4
2.9
3.2
2.7
-0.8
5.6
-1.4
4.7
4.1
5.2
2.7
1.4
2.9
2.0
3.4
2.8
25.2
0.6
2.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
1.5
1.7
0.0
-2.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.9
1.7
3.4
-2.3
5.2
6.3
2.2
0.4
2.8
0.9
0.8
1.9
-0.3
1.5
0.2
-1.8
0.2
0.6
4.4
25.2
10.6
1.7
5.9
1.7
2.9
5.2
3.0
1.5
0.5
4.6
5.3
13.3
2.1
4.3
1.1
2.8
0.0
5039
2447
0
2393
199
0
0
4.7
0.5
11.6
8.1
0.9
1.2
-0.9
1.1
12.5
0.3
2.8
-33.2
1.6
2.9
-0.7
-1.6
4084
3583
469
0
32
4113
3568
523
0
22
6.0
6.6
1.0
1.0
0.4
-0.3
11.6
0.3
0.0
2.8
-1.4
-7.0
-5.5
-7.2
363
355
3.9
4.0
0.3
-0.5
14.8
13.3
0.1
6.9
617
545
546
299
411
466
515
556
590
-1.2
-2.8
2.3
1.4
7355
7903
10678
12346
13697
14491
15084
15498
15714
3.8
2.5
1.0
0.4
1744
869
875
2404
1222
1985
1851
879
972
2208
1502
2343
2344
1170
1173
2509
1821
4005
2484
1231
1253
2923
1958
4981
2733
1387
1346
3139
2129
5696
2889
1486
1403
3247
2285
6070
3032
1567
1464
3311
2370
6371
3173
1635
1538
3336
2438
6550
3284
1695
1590
3342
2478
6610
3.0
3.0
3.0
0.4
4.1
7.3
1.6
1.7
1.4
2.3
1.6
3.6
1.0
1.2
0.8
0.5
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.4
0.4
1784
3874
568
1020
0
108
933
4796
796
1277
0
102
699
6894
1201
1744
0
141
704
7990
1337
2094
0
221
619
8733
1632
2435
1
278
561
9065
1775
2647
1
441
485
9303
1867
2847
1
582
417
9455
2008
2956
1
660
362
9471
2130
3039
1
711
-9.0
5.9
7.8
5.5
-1.2
2.4
3.1
3.4
2.7
7.0
-2.4
0.6
1.4
1.6
3.8
7.7
-2.9
0.2
1.3
0.7
0.4
2.0
30.9
10.4
0.2
4.0
7.5
2.9
5.9
33.0
12.6
0.2
3.9
6.0
3.4
6.9
42.1
15.2
0.3
4.8
6.1
3.8
11.9
45.7
14.8
0.6
5.2
6.6
3.6
14.8
49.9
16.5
0.6
5.7
6.8
3.6
16.6
50.7
16.2
0.6
6.0
6.8
3.7
17.5
52.3
17.1
0.6
6.2
6.7
3.7
18.0
51.7
16.0
0.6
6.4
6.6
3.8
18.4
51.2
15.4
0.6
6.5
6.4
3.8
18.4
3.1
3.9
4.0
1.8
-2.1
2.8
7.3
1.7
0.8
5.9
1.8
1.2
-0.5
3.4
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.8
-0.2
0.2
0.8
-0.2
-1.1
0.1
0.5
-0.3
0.5
0.2
100.0
106.9
136.4
147.9
161.5
164.4
169.3
167.5
165.9
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
126
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Ireland: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
3.507
62.0
164.8
2.92
4057
3.02
8.80
497.5
69.1
3.598
78.7
137.7
3.01
4892
3.04
9.17
419.2
69.4
3.778
125.1
114.5
3.79
6265
2.94
11.14
336.5
84.5
4.109
161.2
93.8
3.68
6082
3.02
11.11
283.3
89.5
4.363
203.3
87.4
4.07
7261
2.81
11.43
245.3
89.0
4.555
243.6
75.8
4.06
7516
2.75
11.14
208.3
87.9
4.756
286.2
67.1
4.03
7726
2.72
10.99
182.7
87.4
4.922
328.6
59.0
3.94
7693
2.67
10.51
157.4
86.3
5.066
365.1
53.4
3.85
7644
2.63
10.11
140.2
86.4
0.7
7.3
-3.6
2.7
4.4
-0.3
2.4
-3.8
0.0
1.5
5.0
-2.7
0.7
1.5
-0.5
0.3
-3.1
0.0
0.9
3.5
-2.6
-0.1
0.6
-0.3
-0.4
-2.9
0.0
0.6
2.5
-2.3
-0.5
-0.1
-0.4
-0.8
-2.6
0.0
150.8
161.8
127.2
99.9
147.3
125.8
118.2
92.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.3
96.4
85.8
96.5
69.8
85.6
74.2
87.5
61.4
75.9
67.0
77.8
55.0
67.2
59.3
69.5
50.6
59.9
52.9
62.3
47.6
54.5
48.1
56.5
-4.0
-4.7
-2.4
0.0
-3.5
-1.5
-2.9
-1.3
-2.4
-2.4
-2.2
-2.3
-1.4
-2.1
-2.1
-2.0
0.73
2.75
2.31
3.11
2.34
2.96
0.71
2.55
2.09
2.71
2.28
2.96
0.64
2.49
2.05
2.42
2.07
2.97
0.59
2.45
2.08
2.27
1.83
2.98
0.52
2.39
2.10
2.18
1.68
2.92
0.47
2.34
2.06
2.10
1.61
2.88
0.46
2.29
2.04
2.01
1.55
2.83
0.42
2.26
2.01
1.96
1.55
2.81
0.40
2.24
1.97
1.93
1.55
2.79
-1.3
-1.0
-1.2
-2.5
-1.2
0.1
-2.1
-0.4
0.3
-1.0
-2.1
-0.2
-1.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-0.3
-1.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.1

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
4627
0
343
223
118
2
0
4284
108
1282
1974
1010
18
0
0
6052
0
714
232
480
2
0
5338
561
1367
2937
995
39
0
0
8278
0
1690
234
1443
13
0
6588
557
1361
4116
1006
105
0
0
8157
0
1815
239
1546
29
0
6342
607
1597
4538
92
115
0
0
9003
0
2139
242
1850
48
0
6864
526
1774
4882
81
127
0
0
9882
0
2707
242
2394
71
0
7175
822
2229
4789
24
134
0
0
10291
0
2852
242
2510
100
0
7439
910
2475
4833
7
124
0
0
6.0
0.8
1.3
17.3
0.5
28.5
20.1
2.4
0.3
2.5
13.7
2.9
0.0
3.1
7.7
4.4
17.8
0.6
7.6
0.0
19.2
0.4
-0.6
2.7
1.7
-22.3
1.9
0.8
5.6
3.4
-0.1
-21.7
-0.3
55.2
44.0
41.3
45.6
44.4
41.9
41.3
40.5
1.1
5.0
0.0
5.0
42.1
0.9
7.5
0.0
7.5
45.9
5.4
13.1
0.0
13.1
48.5
7.2
15.6
0.0
15.6
49.5
7.8
17.0
0.0
17.0
51.7
6.9
20.6
0.0
20.6
53.1
7.9
22.1
0.0
22.1
2.2
0.0
3.0
0.0
4.7
2.3
6.3
4.2
7.5
6.2
8.8
7.3
9.4
8.1
3.8
1.6
4.2
5.3
4.2
2.0
2.8
1.0
2.8
3.4
3.7
1.4
1.7
0.7
1.4
3.3
2.6
0.7

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
22.0
3.9
12.6
1.2
3.2
1.1
28.3
5.2
15.6
1.3
5.1
1.1
37.6
6.1
21.1
1.4
7.9
1.1
45.4
6.7
26.0
1.8
9.6
1.2
54.6
7.2
31.8
2.3
11.9
1.3
63.0
7.5
36.8
2.8
14.5
1.4
71.7
7.9
41.9
3.3
17.2
1.5
79.3
8.2
45.8
3.9
19.8
1.6
84.7
8.5
47.9
4.5
22.2
1.7
6263
7863
9960
11056
12510
13825
15083
16110
16727
4.7
2.3
1.9
1.0
5.9
5.1
0.6
0.2
6.4
5.5
0.6
0.3
13.3
12.3
0.5
0.6
18.8
17.9
0.3
0.6
23.9
22.9
0.3
0.7
27.4
26.3
0.4
0.8
30.3
29.0
0.4
0.9
32.6
31.2
0.4
1.0
34.2
32.7
0.4
1.1
8.5
9.2
-1.8
9.3
6.0
6.4
-3.7
1.9
2.4
2.4
1.5
2.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
2.2

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
5.5
4.7
5.3
1.3
9.5
0.1
95
81
107
117
118
112
106
99
94
1.1
1.0
-1.0
-1.2

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1985
58
993
495
48
365
26
2343
76
1146
653
50
390
28
4005
99
1695
1532
42
613
25
4981
101
1915
2066
44
836
18
5696
97
2113
2398
50
1019
20
6070
92
2185
2546
50
1175
22
6371
90
2223
2691
38
1305
24
6550
91
2156
2831
38
1409
25
6610
95
2101
2874
27
1487
26
7.3
5.5
5.5
12.0
-1.4
5.3
-0.5
3.6
-0.3
2.2
4.6
1.8
5.2
-2.1
1.1
-0.7
0.5
1.2
-2.5
2.5
1.6
0.4
0.6
-0.6
0.7
-3.4
1.3
0.9

66.2
89.6
58.4
108.0
64.8
117.7
63.6
111.2
59.9
101.4
55.5
94.0
50.8
89.9
46.5
87.8
43.8
84.5
-0.2
2.8
-0.8
-1.5
-1.6
-1.2
-1.5
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
127
APPENDIX 2
Italy: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
25537
218
4745
14030
0
6544
2719
849
0
5
2971
29408
44
5378
16347
0
7640
3249
1215
1
8
3167
27099
4
4782
13622
0
8691
3812
1716
48
12
3103
28044
60
6475
9886
0
11622
3101
3505
202
23
4791
31023
0
6124
11023
0
13875
3243
5158
464
89
4920
32047
0
6347
10000
0
15700
3146
6215
858
546
4935
31838
0
6000
8000
0
17838
3100
7604
1199
945
4990
33150
0
5800
8000
0
19350
3069
8631
1279
1176
5195
34360
0
5500
8000
0
20860
3068
9642
1180
1321
5648
0.6
-33.8
0.1
-0.3
1.4
0.3
0.8
2.5
-2.1
-0.2
-3.2
-0.9
0.0
2.9
3.4
7.3
73.3
9.2
0.4
4.8
-1.6
11.6
25.4
21.9
4.7
2.5
-0.5
4.0
10.0
26.7
0.1
1.6
-0.1
2.4
-0.2
3.4
1.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
132060
13792
89885
84284
5602
25311
2980
134651
12987
89684
82558
7126
28530
3218
152953
13188
88458
90244
-1786
47008
3813
160475
16366
79421
94404
-14983
59840
4227
170615
16943
81211
93612
-12401
67755
3792
182117
19809
84360
97038
-12678
72897
3949
193013
20743
86192
98990
-12799
80874
3857
197772
20839
86599
99407
-12808
85065
3739
200928
21158
86312
99404
-13092
88024
3725
1.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.7
1.1
2.5
-0.9
0.4
1.2
2.0
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
6.4
2.5
3.7
-0.1
1.8
0.2
0.9
-0.3

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
153098
14621
89860
39001
0
2980
6636
161262
12272
93248
44652
0
3218
7871
172537
12659
88947
57940
0
3813
9177
186766
16477
83169
70651
0
4227
12243
198099
16943
83796
78779
0
3792
14789
210520
19809
87062
82897
0
3949
16801
221171
20743
88512
88874
0
3857
19185
227218
20839
88695
93065
0
3739
20879
231584
21158
88108
96024
0
3725
22568
1.2
-1.4
-0.1
4.0
1.4
3.0
-0.6
3.1
1.1
2.0
0.5
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.8
2.5
3.3
-0.1
4.9
0.2
2.6
-0.3
1.6
9.6
58.7
25.5
0.0
4.3
7.6
57.8
27.7
0.0
4.9
7.3
51.6
33.6
0.0
5.3
8.8
44.5
37.8
0.0
6.6
8.6
42.3
39.8
0.0
7.5
9.4
41.4
39.4
0.0
8.0
9.4
40.0
40.2
0.0
8.7
9.2
39.0
41.0
0.0
9.2
9.1
38.0
41.5
0.0
9.7
213400
0
31624
181775
237312
0
37798
199514
270016
0
44909
225107
296786
0
38435
258350
341751
0
43196
298555
393400
0
46940
346460
437758
0
50856
386902
471938
0
51864
420074
496200
0
51463
444737
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.3
3.6
2.2
-0.4
2.9
1.6
2.6
0.1
1.4

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
40325
7017
21528
8971
39
2770
0
43578
5287
25009
10234
94
2954
0
47764
5836
18955
19665
419
2890
0
52894
10001
9642
26402
2270
4578
0
54165
10423
6984
29793
2252
4713
0
60146
12981
6876
32834
2692
4763
0
65445
13679
6219
37592
3116
4840
0
68495
13757
5492
40555
3626
5065
0
70760
14313
5078
41461
4368
5540
0
1.7
-1.8
-1.3
8.2
26.8
0.4
1.3
6.0
-9.5
4.2
18.3
5.0
1.9
2.8
-1.2
2.4
3.3
0.3
0.8
0.5
-2.0
1.0
3.4
1.4

Refineries
District heating
Others
99234
91545
0
0
7688
98663
92283
0
0
6380
102560
96749
0
0
5811
107150
102214
162
0
4773
108604
101858
1868
0
4879
113079
105554
2647
0
4878
116117
107180
3913
0
5024
116855
107311
4665
0
4880
116812
106932
5276
0
4604
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.5
7.7
0.1
0.0
3.0
-2.8
-1.7
0.3
-0.9
7045
7362
7289
8620
8089
8453
8672
8743
8682
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.0
Non-Energy Uses
9896
13633
10838
11007
11333
11915
12386
12478
12465
0.9
0.4
0.9
0.1
107160
113709
123254
134080
145970
155074
162631
167950
171973
1.4
1.7
1.1
0.6
36221
25218
11002
26284
11252
33404
36430
24737
11692
26673
12970
37636
39489
24840
14648
28331
14171
41263
40729
25798
14931
31849
17898
43604
43241
27150
16091
35433
20633
46662
44901
28059
16842
37348
22932
49892
46745
29096
17649
38790
24447
52649
48588
29881
18707
39405
25333
54625
50260
30547
19713
39798
25842
56072
0.9
-0.2
2.9
0.8
2.3
2.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
2.3
3.8
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.5
1.1
0.3
0.6
0.6
4209
53623
29813
18408
0
1107
4012
53099
34652
20442
0
1505
3681
56147
37984
23435
0
2007
4220
58196
43747
25828
0
2089
4437
61131
47209
29409
15
3768
4697
63932
48133
33461
22
4828
4930
65630
49132
36767
25
6148
4998
66591
50197
39251
25
6888
4871
66584
52071
41140
27
7281
-1.3
0.5
2.5
2.4
1.9
0.9
2.2
2.3
6.1
6.5
1.1
0.7
0.4
2.3
5.3
5.0
-0.1
0.1
0.6
1.1
0.7
1.7

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
386.9
118.9
16.6
79.6
55.6
19.1
97.1
401.3
126.1
17.0
75.4
52.8
21.2
108.9
421.3
130.7
16.6
77.5
54.7
22.0
119.7
451.0
133.8
20.2
81.6
61.3
27.2
126.8
469.1
135.1
18.7
86.0
68.0
29.4
131.9
498.1
151.9
19.2
87.0
70.2
30.1
139.7
518.5
163.6
19.5
89.3
71.4
29.8
144.9
528.8
168.5
19.4
91.1
71.5
29.3
149.0
535.2
171.3
19.1
92.6
71.8
28.9
151.6
0.9
1.0
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
1.4
2.1
1.1
0.3
1.2
1.0
2.2
2.9
1.0
1.0
1.9
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.3
0.5
-0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.3
0.5
100.0
103.7
108.9
116.6
121.2
128.7
134.0
136.7
138.3
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
128
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Italy: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
56.694
1172.7
130.5
2.70
3764
2.53
6.82
329.9
84.8
56.846
1249.2
129.1
2.84
4175
2.49
7.06
321.3
82.3
56.929
1372.9
125.7
3.03
4743
2.44
7.40
306.9
87.3
58.462
1417.2
131.8
3.19
5077
2.41
7.71
318.2
84.4
58.698
1541.5
128.5
3.37
5822
2.37
7.99
304.3
84.6
58.630
1704.6
123.5
3.59
6710
2.37
8.50
292.2
85.0
58.300
1864.3
118.6
3.79
7509
2.34
8.89
278.1
85.8
57.751
2023.9
112.3
3.93
8172
2.33
9.16
261.3
85.6
57.071
2168.0
106.8
4.06
8694
2.31
9.38
246.9
85.4
0.0
1.6
-0.4
1.2
2.3
-0.3
0.8
-0.7
0.0
0.3
1.2
0.2
1.1
2.1
-0.3
0.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
1.9
-0.8
1.2
2.6
-0.1
1.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
1.5
-1.0
0.7
1.5
-0.1
0.5
-1.2
0.0
103.5
109.4
95.6
94.8
96.7
106.5
102.5
100.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
108.9
109.6
120.1
102.4
107.4
112.7
127.3
100.7
100.5
108.2
127.8
97.4
94.9
103.3
124.3
94.0
89.8
97.2
118.7
89.8
85.9
92.0
112.9
86.0
-0.3
-0.9
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.2
2.4
0.1
-1.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-0.9
0.56
2.35
2.20
2.11
1.70
2.91
0.53
2.27
2.07
1.98
1.63
2.89
0.48
2.22
1.96
1.93
1.55
2.90
0.45
2.22
2.00
1.93
1.52
2.91
0.39
2.16
1.99
1.92
1.42
2.83
0.39
2.11
1.94
1.88
1.31
2.80
0.37
2.06
1.91
1.84
1.22
2.75
0.36
2.03
1.88
1.82
1.16
2.73
0.34
2.01
1.84
1.80
1.12
2.70
-1.4
-0.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
0.0
-2.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.9
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
-1.5
-0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
69851
0
14588
14135
427
26
0
55264
9682
9621
27466
16795
597
0
785
76966
0
15810
14133
1639
38
0
61156
10847
9715
33995
15253
1223
0
971
100395
0
17234
14136
3005
93
0
83161
11369
11851
53620
15327
1392
0
971
98495
0
20002
14138
5520
344
0
78493
14913
9931
56913
7890
2789
0
971
103754
0
22334
14139
7469
697
30
81420
17384
9894
61790
5852
2913
0
971
109871
0
23249
14139
7974
1106
31
86621
18439
9156
67879
5617
2998
0
971
118462
0
23146
14139
7210
1721
76
95316
18753
9817
74929
5932
3533
0
1105
3.7
0.3
1.3
1.7
0.0
21.5
13.6
2.6
0.0
9.5
22.3
4.2
1.6
2.1
6.9
-0.9
8.8
-0.2
4.3
-1.8
1.4
-9.2
7.7
0.4
0.0
-0.4
9.5
9.8
1.6
0.8
-0.1
1.9
0.1
1.9
2.1
0.0
1.3
41.7
41.7
37.5
43.9
46.5
47.4
46.3
40.5
11.6
19.4
0.0
19.4
42.0
8.1
18.0
0.0
18.0
47.4
16.3
17.8
0.0
17.8
49.5
20.8
17.1
0.0
17.1
50.8
23.4
16.8
0.0
16.8
52.7
23.7
16.5
0.0
16.5
54.1
23.2
16.5
0.0
16.5
5.1
0.0
5.3
0.4
6.3
3.8
7.4
5.2
8.2
7.3
8.6
8.4
9.0
9.4
0.3
1.2
0.1
-0.3
3.2
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.7
3.6
0.2
0.6
0.1
0.5
1.4
2.0
0.4

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
722.2
84.0
561.6
48.9
21.3
6.4
831.0
87.1
660.7
49.1
27.9
6.1
969.5
93.6
779.1
52.7
38.2
5.9
980.5
101.3
777.9
52.3
43.1
5.8
1003.3
105.5
788.8
51.0
52.1
5.9
1038.5
108.3
808.8
52.0
63.4
5.9
1078.3
110.4
832.8
54.9
74.2
6.0
1115.2
111.6
855.4
59.1
83.0
6.2
1146.2
111.8
874.5
63.3
90.4
6.3
12738
14618
17030
16772
17092
17712
18496
19311
20084
2.9
0.0
0.8
0.8

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
186.1
130.9
19.4
35.8
231.6
174.4
21.7
35.4
237.6
184.7
22.8
30.2
260.0
211.8
20.1
28.1
282.3
233.8
20.6
27.9
302.0
251.6
22.3
28.2
314.6
261.5
23.9
29.2
324.7
269.1
25.7
30.0
331.0
273.0
27.4
30.6
2.5
3.5
1.7
-1.7
1.7
2.4
-1.0
-0.8
1.1
1.1
1.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
1.4
0.5

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
3.0
1.1
3.3
0.8
6.0
-0.8
159
185
173
183
183
177
169
160
153
0.9
0.6
-0.8
-1.0
33404
684
20584
9137
738
1872
389
37636
599
23615
9737
819
2418
448
41263
656
25521
10559
834
3491
202
43604
701
24557
13327
907
3863
248
46662
746
25363
14841
906
4559
247
49892
776
26355
16225
920
5368
248
52649
796
27530
17060
898
6112
252
54625
800
28042
17871
882
6772
256
56072
778
28542
18321
868
7305
258
2.1
-0.4
2.2
1.5
1.2
6.4
-6.3
1.2
1.3
-0.1
3.5
0.8
2.7
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.8
1.4
-0.1
3.0
0.2
0.6
-0.2
0.4
0.7
-0.3
1.8
0.2
32.6
53.0
32.6
45.6
31.0
47.3
30.2
54.0
31.0
55.1
31.7
56.2
32.3
56.7
32.3
57.3
32.3
57.5
-0.5
-1.1
0.0
1.5
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.2
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
129
APPENDIX 2
Latvia: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
1245
182
1
0
0
1062
387
675
0
0
0
1639
234
0
0
0
1405
253
1153
0
0
0
1576
49
0
0
0
1527
242
1284
0
0
0
2304
6
7
0
0
2291
286
2001
4
0
0
2563
4
0
0
0
2560
261
2268
30
0
0
2859
4
0
0
0
2855
244
2539
70
2
0
3138
4
0
0
0
3134
261
2777
92
4
0
3188
3
0
0
0
3184
262
2803
114
5
0
3375
3
0
0
0
3372
260
2983
122
7
0
2.4
-12.3
5.0
-22.6
2.0
-0.6
0.7
-1.8
3.7
-4.6
6.6
5.3
0.7
5.9
56.4
2.0
0.0
2.0
11.8
23.4
2.5
0.7
-0.1
0.7
2.8
7.2
0.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
7440
627
3944
1
3942
2561
308
3358
170
2086
2
2084
999
194
2253
62
1096
93
1003
1113
154
2783
76
1662
4
1658
1434
185
3252
79
2057
1
2055
1594
172
3878
72
2443
2
2441
1909
181
4277
83
2657
2
2655
2109
225
4783
85
2945
2
2943
2248
308
4961
88
3031
2
3029
2387
309
-11.3
-20.7
-12.0
55.9
-12.8
-8.0
-6.7
3.7
2.4
6.5
-34.4
7.4
3.7
1.1
2.8
0.5
2.6
3.1
2.6
2.8
2.7
1.5
0.6
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.2
3.3

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
8059
867
3458
2380
0
308
1045
4854
456
1885
1010
0
194
1309
4007
252
1155
1092
0
154
1354
4720
83
1376
1358
0
185
1718
5490
82
1732
1594
0
172
1910
6344
76
2051
1909
0
181
2127
6965
86
2207
2109
0
225
2339
7470
88
2445
2248
0
308
2381
7800
91
2495
2387
0
309
2517
-6.7
-11.6
-10.4
-7.5
3.2
-10.6
4.1
3.9
2.4
0.5
2.5
2.8
1.1
0.5
1.2
1.2
-6.7
2.6
1.1
3.5
2.7
2.0
3.3
0.7

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
10.8
42.9
29.5
0.0
13.0
9.4
38.8
20.8
0.0
27.0
6.3
28.8
27.3
0.0
33.8
1.8
29.2
28.8
0.0
36.4
1.5
31.5
29.0
0.0
34.8
1.2
32.3
30.1
0.0
33.5
1.2
31.7
30.3
0.0
33.6
1.2
32.7
30.1
0.0
31.9
1.2
32.0
30.6
0.0
32.3

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
6647
0
4495
2152
3978
0
2936
1042
4135
0
2822
1313
4904
0
3371
1533
6706
0
3386
3320
8235
0
3653
4582
9232
0
4116
5116
9826
0
4376
5450
11009
0
4447
6562
-4.6
5.0
3.2
1.8
-4.5
-4.8
1.8
9.7
2.0
4.4
0.8
2.5
926
59
177
690
0
0
0
722
194
242
286
0
0
0
607
142
77
388
0
0
0
591
0
13
541
37
0
0
643
0
44
573
27
0
0
877
0
42
745
90
0
0
981
0
41
857
83
0
0
1011
0
0
905
107
0
0
1180
0
0
1023
157
0
0
-4.1
9.2
-8.0
-5.6
0.6
4.3
1.9
-5.5
4.0
-0.5
4.1
12.1
1.8
6.6
2601
1
0
2573
27
941
1
0
930
9
645
1
0
643
1
591
1
3
587
0
719
1
49
668
0
767
2
77
688
0
824
2
126
696
0
884
2
162
720
0
903
2
190
711
0
-13.0
0.0
1.1
2.2
-12.9
-28.3
0.4
1.4
3.1
9.9
0.4
0.9
1.0
4.2
0.2
130
149
151
102
112
130
140
149
155
1.5
-2.9
2.3
1.0
77
46
77
91
102
113
124
134
138
0.1
2.8
1.9
1.1
6445
3880
3332
4046
4854
5589
6151
6640
6910
-6.4
3.8
2.4
1.2
1972
707
1265
1632
1747
1094
701
305
396
1663
804
712
614
219
396
1368
606
744
827
282
545
1476
744
999
1088
448
640
1586
892
1287
1350
533
817
1676
1012
1551
1563
568
995
1751
1075
1761
1783
599
1184
1823
1125
1908
1932
617
1315
1845
1150
1983
-11.0
-11.1
-11.0
-1.7
-10.0
-3.8
5.9
7.4
4.9
1.5
3.9
5.6
3.7
2.4
4.5
1.0
1.9
3.2
2.1
0.8
2.8
0.5
0.7
1.2
330
2047
672
768
2013
616
126
1119
366
470
905
894
58
1003
329
443
590
909
73
1220
508
537
598
1111
78
1521
596
702
628
1330
71
1768
729
832
693
1497
74
1927
807
952
735
1655
80
2238
1036
1080
775
1430
83
2282
1062
1175
799
1509
-16.0
-6.9
-6.9
-5.3
-11.5
4.0
3.0
4.2
6.1
4.7
0.6
3.9
-0.5
2.4
3.1
3.1
1.6
2.2
1.1
1.7
2.8
2.1
0.8
-0.9
19.2
10.0
0.1
2.5
1.2
2.1
3.2
9.4
4.5
0.2
1.3
0.5
0.8
2.1
6.9
2.8
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
2.2
7.3
2.1
0.1
1.0
0.5
0.6
2.9
8.9
2.5
0.2
1.4
0.6
0.6
3.7
10.6
3.1
0.3
1.6
0.7
0.6
4.4
11.5
3.3
0.3
1.7
0.8
0.6
4.9
12.6
2.8
0.3
2.8
0.9
0.6
5.2
13.0
3.0
0.3
2.8
1.0
0.6
5.3
-9.7
-12.0
5.0
-9.7
-13.7
-12.8
-3.7
2.6
-1.2
-0.4
4.1
7.7
1.4
5.4
2.6
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
0.4
2.9
1.2
-0.8
1.1
5.4
2.5
-0.3
0.8
100.0
49.1
36.1
38.1
46.6
55.2
60.1
65.5
68.0
Annual % Change

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
130
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Latvia: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
2.668
12.4
650.6
3.02
2491
2.38
7.18
1547.0
87.3
2.501
6.7
727.0
1.94
1591
1.94
3.76
1409.0
67.1
2.382
8.7
461.0
1.68
1736
1.73
2.91
796.5
56.1
2.306
12.8
367.7
2.05
2126
1.55
3.17
569.2
55.9
2.241
18.9
290.8
2.45
2992
1.63
3.99
473.1
55.9
2.174
25.4
249.7
2.92
3787
1.67
4.86
416.3
57.6
2.115
31.8
218.9
3.29
4364
1.65
5.44
361.9
57.7
2.068
38.3
195.3
3.61
4751
1.68
6.07
328.2
60.0
2.022
43.4
179.9
3.86
5444
1.67
6.45
300.7
59.5
-1.1
-3.5
-3.4
-5.7
-3.5
-3.1
-8.6
-6.4
0.0
-0.6
8.1
-4.5
3.8
5.6
-0.6
3.2
-5.1
0.0
-0.6
5.4
-2.8
3.0
3.8
0.2
3.2
-2.6
0.0
-0.4
3.1
-1.9
1.6
2.2
0.1
1.7
-1.8
0.0
146.0
84.9
311.7
103.1
144.2
157.6
176.8
124.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
93.7
71.0
82.8
90.9
81.0
52.4
67.7
79.6
72.9
41.5
56.9
71.3
66.5
34.8
48.2
64.6
62.6
30.3
41.8
58.3
59.8
27.2
37.5
53.4
-3.7
1.7
-10.7
-0.3
-2.1
-6.3
-3.8
-2.3
-2.0
-4.0
-3.3
-2.1
-1.0
-2.4
-2.5
-1.9
0.29
1.40
1.28
0.75
1.21
2.90
0.27
1.21
1.88
0.31
1.02
2.89
0.21
1.17
1.48
0.21
0.89
2.92
0.16
1.26
1.26
0.33
0.85
2.94
0.16
1.29
1.25
0.37
0.69
2.85
0.17
1.30
1.16
0.40
0.64
2.83
0.17
1.29
1.06
0.43
0.60
2.77
0.14
1.43
1.57
0.48
0.57
2.71
0.14
1.40
1.46
0.53
0.54
2.66
-3.0
-1.8
1.5
-12.1
-3.0
0.1
-3.0
0.9
-1.7
6.1
-2.5
-0.2
0.9
0.0
-1.6
1.5
-1.4
-0.3
-1.8
0.8
3.2
2.0
-1.0
-0.4

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
2062
0
1519
1517
2
0
0
543
542
29
414
98
2
0
0
2144
0
1578
1554
24
0
0
565
564
2
502
45
16
0
0
2763
0
1730
1559
171
1
0
1033
602
2
949
60
22
0
0
3052
0
1971
1563
404
4
0
1082
564
2
957
61
62
0
0
3090
0
2089
1567
516
7
0
1001
758
2
875
62
62
0
0
3028
0
2205
1570
625
11
0
822
729
0
740
15
67
0
0
3221
0
2253
1574
665
14
0
968
743
0
853
15
100
0
0
3.0
1.1
0.4
1.3
0.3
56.0
1.9
0.1
11.7
21.4
0.8
0.0
2.6
7.2
6.6
1.1
-23.3
8.7
-4.7
24.9
-0.3
2.3
1.1
-0.8
0.2
11.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-13.0
4.9
20.4
23.5
27.2
30.2
33.4
36.4
38.3
18.6
24.0
68.3
0.0
68.3
22.3
11.8
69.6
0.0
69.6
44.4
46.5
52.1
0.0
52.1
44.9
42.3
49.7
0.0
49.7
44.8
37.8
49.1
0.0
49.1
46.4
44.1
49.8
0.0
49.8
47.8
41.0
47.4
0.0
47.4
36.9
0.0
42.2
0.3
36.6
3.5
35.3
4.5
35.3
6.6
32.6
7.9
33.1
9.0
4.8
2.6
5.5
3.1
6.3
2.6
0.5
3.0
2.7
4.9
1.4
0.1
1.6
1.5
2.5

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
17.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
0.1
0.2
9.0
1.8
5.1
1.8
0.2
0.2
12.3
2.3
8.7
1.1
0.2
0.0
15.8
2.8
11.6
1.3
0.2
0.0
19.7
3.0
14.8
1.5
0.3
0.0
22.9
3.1
17.6
1.7
0.5
0.0
25.5
3.2
19.9
1.9
0.6
0.0
27.9
3.2
21.9
2.1
0.6
0.0
29.4
3.2
23.2
2.2
0.7
0.0
-3.6
-8.7
4.2
-15.5
2.3
-14.4
6650
3605
5177
6869
8771
10527
12067
13468
14529
-2.5
5.4
3.2
1.9

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
24.8
5.9
18.5
0.4
12.0
1.8
9.8
0.4
18.1
4.8
13.3
0.0
26.3
8.4
17.9
0.0
35.8
12.3
23.5
0.0
44.2
16.8
27.5
0.0
51.7
21.0
30.6
0.0
58.0
25.2
32.8
0.0
62.0
28.4
33.5
0.0
-3.1
-2.0
-3.3
7.1
9.9
5.9
3.7
5.5
2.7
1.8
3.1
0.9
2005
1795
2083
2050
1899
1741
1624
1516
1430
0.4
-0.9
-1.6
-1.3

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1094
111
317
370
188
73
35
712
41
284
240
90
26
31
744
23
373
241
75
27
4
999
25
451
371
93
59
0
1287
26
547
517
119
78
0
1551
25
614
683
134
95
0
1761
25
654
844
135
103
0
1908
24
676
993
107
109
0
1983
24
679
1107
64
110
0
-3.8
-14.6
1.7
-4.2
-8.7
-9.6
-18.7
5.6
1.2
3.9
7.9
4.6
11.4
3.2
-0.3
1.8
5.0
1.3
2.8
1.2
-0.6
0.4
2.8
-7.2
0.6

30.4
22.3
41.8
28.0
34.9
17.3
34.1
17.5
33.4
17.6
32.3
18.4
30.8
18.9
29.1
18.9
27.8
18.8
1.4
-2.5
-0.5
0.2
-0.8
0.7
-1.0
0.0
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
131
APPENDIX 2
Lithuania: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
4768
42
12
0
4394
321
36
285
0
0
0
3724
43
130
0
3050
501
32
469
0
0
0
3210
35
347
0
2172
656
29
627
0
0
0
3721
39
239
0
2666
777
39
735
0
0
3
1113
9
238
0
0
865
33
819
11
0
0
1311
7
263
0
0
1040
36
980
24
1
0
4325
5
279
0
2799
1240
36
1175
27
2
0
4594
4
281
0
2845
1464
36
1395
29
4
0
5082
4
284
0
2892
1902
37
1813
47
5
0
-3.9
-1.7
40.0
-10.1
-12.3
-3.7
14.5
-5.4
1.6
1.6
-3.4
0.2
-6.8
7.4
-2.0
8.2
2.8
1.3
2.7
3.7
0.7
3.7
8.9
17.7
2.1
0.3
4.4
0.4
4.4
5.9
7.1
1.0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
11666
758
7260
9531
-2271
4678
-1030
5643
157
3686
3609
77
2029
-230
4327
84
2299
4827
-2528
2065
-115
5096
190
2677
9054
-6377
2492
-255
6882
345
2872
10061
-7189
3663
24
7808
339
3147
11058
-7911
4418
-71
6819
308
3332
11719
-8387
3628
-417
7262
310
3348
11797
-8449
4053
-413
7463
318
3381
11918
-8537
4231
-419
-9.4
-19.8
-10.9
-6.6
4.8
15.2
2.2
7.6
-0.1
-1.1
1.5
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.2
-7.9
5.9
-0.1
1.6

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
16071
831
6878
4678
4394
-1030
320
8706
285
3080
2029
3050
-230
493
7080
121
2190
2064
2172
-115
649
8606
215
2746
2476
2666
-255
758
7826
355
2941
3663
0
24
843
8929
346
3220
4418
0
-71
1015
10939
313
3407
3628
2799
-417
1210
11643
314
3417
4053
2845
-413
1427
12332
321
3452
4231
2892
-419
1855
-7.9
-17.5
-10.8
-7.9
-6.8
1.0
11.4
3.0
5.9
3.4
-1.2
1.5
-0.1
1.2
0.3
0.1
1.6
0.3
7.3
2.7
3.7
4.4
5.2
42.8
29.1
27.3
2.0
3.3
35.4
23.3
35.0
5.7
1.7
30.9
29.1
30.7
9.2
2.5
31.9
28.8
31.0
8.8
4.5
37.6
46.8
0.0
10.8
3.9
36.1
49.5
0.0
11.4
2.9
31.1
33.2
25.6
11.1
2.7
29.3
34.8
24.4
12.3
2.6
28.0
34.3
23.4
15.0
28400
17030
414
10956
13518
11820
373
1325
11118
8417
339
2362
14410
10335
451
3624
12023
0
520
11503
15128
0
696
14432
21673
12399
726
8548
23388
12602
756
10030
25257
12808
981
11468
-9.0
-6.8
-2.0
-14.2
0.8
6.1
4.4
17.2
3.4
-2.9
1.5
0.3
3.1
3.0
2610
0
1067
1543
0
0
0
950
0
516
433
0
0
0
911
0
196
716
0
0
0
1218
0
169
1044
5
0
0
2417
168
1
2215
32
0
0
2969
168
0
2763
37
0
0
1814
138
0
1635
41
0
0
2091
138
0
1875
78
0
0
2334
143
0
2025
165
0
0
-10.0
10.2
-2.8
-2.0
2.6
0.4
-15.6
-7.4
-39.2
12.0
-3.0
2.5
2.2
14.9
11408
9561
0
1823
24
4490
3392
0
1079
18
5755
5086
0
657
12
9951
9418
3
522
8
10661
10232
13
412
4
11694
11283
49
360
3
12694
11978
128
586
2
12708
12068
154
484
2
12769
12197
169
401
2
-6.6
-6.1
6.4
7.2
-9.7
-7.0
-4.6
-10.3
1.8
1.6
25.3
3.6
-7.4
0.1
0.2
2.9
-3.7
-1.3
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
991
601
655
915
781
879
973
1022
1065
-4.1
1.8
2.2
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
852
540
648
775
964
1112
1239
1371
1509
-2.7
4.1
2.5
2.0
9696
4728
3820
4527
5149
5805
6297
6756
7215
-8.9
3.0
2.0
1.4
3334
1678
1656
1854
2518
1990
1025
482
543
1733
933
1037
782
362
420
1402
589
1048
996
436
560
1437
697
1397
1132
532
600
1524
794
1698
1338
627
711
1675
872
1920
1508
703
805
1820
947
2022
1700
785
916
1966
1007
2084
1917
879
1037
2120
1059
2119
-13.5
-14.2
-12.8
-2.8
-13.5
-6.2
3.8
3.9
3.6
0.8
3.0
4.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.4
2.3
2.6
1.5
1.1
0.5
760
4055
1483
1048
2078
272
241
1666
510
670
1193
448
96
1348
363
606
828
579
197
1599
503
749
905
574
173
1996
535
904
971
570
167
2175
592
1051
1032
788
166
2244
687
1191
1066
943
169
2300
619
1323
1090
1256
172
2346
630
1459
1116
1493
-18.7
-10.4
-13.1
-5.3
-8.8
7.9
6.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
1.6
-0.2
-0.4
1.2
2.5
2.8
0.9
5.2
0.3
0.4
-0.9
2.0
0.5
4.7
32.5
12.0
1.7
6.1
2.3
4.5
5.8
13.6
5.6
0.9
1.7
0.8
1.6
3.0
10.4
3.9
1.2
1.1
0.6
0.5
3.1
12.6
4.0
2.0
1.3
0.7
0.6
4.1
16.1
6.4
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.6
4.9
18.2
7.7
2.0
1.7
0.7
0.6
5.5
16.4
5.4
2.1
1.9
0.8
0.6
5.6
17.1
6.1
2.1
1.7
0.9
0.6
5.7
17.3
6.2
2.0
1.7
1.0
0.6
5.8
-10.8
-10.5
-3.3
-15.9
-13.2
-19.8
-6.2
4.5
4.9
4.3
4.6
0.6
1.7
4.9
0.2
-1.6
1.5
1.3
2.5
-0.2
1.3
0.5
1.4
-0.6
-1.2
2.9
0.1
0.2
100.0
41.9
31.9
38.9
49.4
56.0
50.6
52.7
53.3
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
132
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Lithuania: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
3.694
19.2
837.2
4.35
7689
2.02
8.80
1692.8
72.2
3.643
11.3
770.4
2.39
3711
1.56
3.73
1203.4
63.8
3.512
14.2
498.5
2.02
3166
1.46
2.95
730.3
60.3
3.425
20.6
417.4
2.51
4207
1.47
3.69
612.6
58.3
3.339
28.1
278.6
2.34
3601
2.05
4.81
571.4
86.1
3.258
36.0
247.8
2.74
4644
2.04
5.59
505.3
85.6
3.182
44.7
244.9
3.44
6811
1.50
5.16
368.0
61.2
3.134
54.4
213.9
3.72
7463
1.47
5.46
314.5
61.2
3.092
64.6
190.8
3.99
8169
1.40
5.60
267.8
59.5
-0.5
-3.0
-5.1
-7.4
-8.5
-3.2
-10.3
-8.1
0.0
-0.5
7.1
-5.7
1.5
1.3
3.4
5.0
-2.4
0.0
-0.5
4.7
-1.3
3.9
6.6
-3.1
0.7
-4.3
0.0
-0.3
3.8
-2.5
1.5
1.8
-0.7
0.8
-3.1
0.0
267.2
99.9
442.7
140.5
185.2
161.1
201.8
124.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
79.4
68.7
87.3
91.9
63.7
54.4
76.0
81.9
56.9
47.2
66.0
72.2
51.0
41.9
57.9
61.4
47.3
37.5
50.2
51.9
44.9
34.4
44.4
44.4
-9.4
0.0
-13.8
-3.3
-4.4
-5.9
-2.7
-2.0
-2.2
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.6
-3.2
0.21
1.94
1.83
1.26
1.80
2.93
0.17
1.51
1.70
0.47
1.66
2.91
0.16
1.37
1.38
0.41
0.85
2.93
0.14
1.47
1.35
0.46
0.83
2.92
0.24
1.52
1.49
0.40
0.75
2.91
0.26
1.46
1.26
0.40
0.67
2.88
0.15
1.41
1.27
0.42
0.61
2.78
0.16
1.32
1.01
0.45
0.58
2.74
0.15
1.26
0.88
0.48
0.56
2.72
-2.7
-3.5
-2.8
-10.8
-7.2
0.0
4.2
1.1
0.8
-0.2
-1.3
-0.1
-4.9
-0.7
-1.6
0.7
-1.9
-0.5
0.5
-1.1
-3.6
1.4
-1.0
-0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
4839
2291
98
98
0
0
0
2451
2442
0
1838
613
0
0
0
3827
1200
115
108
6
0
0
2512
2498
0
1877
631
5
0
0
3634
0
214
116
98
1
0
3419
2514
103
2690
604
22
0
0
3742
0
325
117
204
4
0
3418
2219
103
2702
588
25
0
0
5311
1515
373
141
225
7
0
3422
2477
103
2702
589
28
0
0
4732
1515
402
148
241
13
0
2815
2175
103
2387
275
50
0
0
4304
1515
494
152
326
16
0
2295
1980
103
2078
0
114
0
0
-2.8
3.9
8.2
1.7
5.7
2.0
8.7
21.3
-2.1
0.0
2.9
0.7
3.8
8.6
3.4
0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.3
2.7
14.9
23.0
39.4
36.5
44.6
44.5
53.9
64.1
22.3
18.5
78.8
75.7
3.0
25.6
22.7
75.0
71.7
3.3
40.9
69.1
5.6
0.0
5.6
41.8
66.6
5.7
0.0
5.7
40.5
34.7
61.5
57.2
4.2
41.2
36.6
58.7
53.9
4.8
42.3
38.4
57.8
50.7
7.1
15.9
0.0
15.0
0.3
15.1
0.8
16.3
2.6
17.7
6.5
19.8
7.7
23.1
8.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
3.1
5.3
1.9
0.8
0.4
0.8
3.7
3.9
0.9

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
3.9
-0.1
-3.9
-2.2
0.0
-2.6

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
21.3
7.9
9.3
3.6
0.2
0.3
15.6
4.2
10.1
1.1
0.2
0.0
19.7
2.8
16.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
33.9
3.8
29.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
38.8
4.3
33.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
42.5
4.7
36.8
0.5
0.5
0.1
45.3
4.8
39.1
0.6
0.7
0.1
47.4
5.0
40.8
0.7
0.8
0.1
49.2
5.0
42.2
0.9
1.0
0.1
-0.8
-10.0
5.6
-16.3
1.9
-13.2
7.0
4.6
7.6
-3.0
5.6
1.2
5774
4288
5622
9910
11632
13059
14235
15134
15919
-0.3
7.5
2.0
1.1

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
26.8
7.3
19.3
0.2
12.4
5.2
7.2
0.0
16.7
7.8
8.9
0.0
28.4
15.9
12.5
0.0
37.5
21.5
16.0
0.0
46.1
26.5
19.5
0.0
52.4
30.3
22.1
0.0
56.6
32.9
23.7
0.0
57.5
33.4
24.1
0.0
-4.6
0.6
-7.4
8.4
10.7
6.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
0.9
1.0
0.9
1394
1099
1175
1376
1335
1278
1173
1041
889
-1.7
1.3
-1.3
-2.7

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1990
164
396
1159
132
135
5
1037
50
485
374
86
41
1
1048
25
630
288
75
27
3
1397
30
823
414
79
46
5
1698
34
941
558
100
61
5
1920
35
1001
685
118
75
6
2022
35
1012
758
122
89
6
2084
35
1025
800
116
102
7
2119
35
1049
809
105
114
7
-6.2
-17.1
4.8
-13.0
-5.5
-14.9
-5.0
4.9
3.0
4.1
6.8
2.9
8.6
5.9
1.8
0.4
0.7
3.1
2.0
3.9
1.8
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.7
-1.5
2.5
0.6

33.3
47.8
37.7
36.2
34.8
21.6
26.7
17.3
26.8
17.5
26.3
17.4
25.3
16.8
24.7
16.1
24.5
15.9
0.4
-7.6
-2.6
-2.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
133
APPENDIX 2
Luxembourg: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
47
0
0
0
0
47
6
41
0
0
0
47
0
0
0
0
47
7
39
0
0
0
57
0
0
0
0
57
10
44
2
0
0
74
0
0
0
0
74
8
59
5
2
0
149
0
0
0
0
149
9
89
11
40
0
179
0
0
0
0
179
9
111
12
47
0
222
0
0
0
0
222
9
139
18
56
0
251
0
0
0
0
251
9
162
18
61
0
273
0
0
0
0
273
10
184
14
66
0
1.9
10.1
4.1
2.1
1.9
5.8
0.7
10.1
-1.2
7.3
16.9
4.1
0.2
4.6
4.8
3.5
1.4
2.1
0.2
2.8
-2.3
1.7
0.2
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
3520
1134
1620
0
1620
430
336
3257
514
1756
0
1756
557
430
3620
125
2332
0
2332
670
492
4606
82
3066
0
3066
1179
280
4961
54
3356
0
3356
1161
353
5281
50
3475
0
3475
1312
343
5411
47
3476
0
3476
1405
331
5479
36
3480
0
3480
1423
363
5506
30
3448
0
3448
1428
400
0.3
-19.8
3.7
3.2
-8.1
3.7
0.9
-1.5
0.4
0.2
-4.4
-0.1
3.7
4.6
3.9
3.7
5.6
-3.3
0.4
1.9
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
1.9

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
3556
1134
1609
430
0
336
47
3335
514
1788
557
0
430
47
3628
125
2283
670
0
492
57
4698
82
3084
1179
0
280
74
5110
54
3356
1161
0
353
187
5460
50
3475
1312
0
343
280
5633
47
3476
1405
0
331
374
5730
36
3480
1423
0
363
428
5779
30
3448
1428
0
400
474
0.2
-19.8
3.6
4.6
3.5
-8.1
3.9
5.6
1.0
-1.5
0.4
1.9
0.3
-4.4
-0.1
0.2
3.9
1.9
-3.3
12.7
-0.6
7.2
1.9
2.4

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
31.9
45.2
12.1
0.0
1.3
15.4
53.6
16.7
0.0
1.4
3.5
62.9
18.5
0.0
1.6
1.7
65.6
25.1
0.0
1.6
1.1
65.7
22.7
0.0
3.7
0.9
63.6
24.0
0.0
5.1
0.8
61.7
24.9
0.0
6.6
0.6
60.7
24.8
0.0
7.5
0.5
59.7
24.7
0.0
8.2

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
627
0
68
559
498
0
84
414
433
0
147
286
3344
0
164
3180
2867
0
255
2612
3564
0
264
3300
4110
0
338
3772
4061
0
345
3717
3937
0
300
3637
-3.6
20.8
3.7
-0.4
8.0
-6.5
5.7
24.8
2.8
3.7
-1.2
-0.4

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
190
0
3
162
25
0
0
132
0
2
106
24
0
0
75
0
0
47
28
0
0
568
0
0
525
43
0
0
479
0
0
434
45
0
0
588
0
0
543
45
0
0
653
0
0
608
45
0
0
640
0
0
589
51
0
0
628
0
0
565
63
0
0
-8.8
20.3
3.1
-0.4
-11.6
1.0
24.8
4.8
3.4
0.0
-0.7
3.4

Refineries
District heating
Others
378
0
0
0
378
144
0
0
0
144
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
67
0
67
0
0
152
0
152
0
0
232
0
232
0
0
275
0
275
0
0
311
0
311
0
0
13.3
2.9
13.3
2.9
Annual % Change
31
30
26
30
-1.8
-11.8
1.9
-0.3
Non-Energy Uses
20
23
14
20
25
28
31
33
35
-3.9
6.4
1.9
1.4
3329
3165
3549
4424
4875
5161
5299
5404
5456
0.6
3.2
0.8
0.3
1729
1525
204
519
74
1007
1196
900
296
563
99
1307
958
501
457
596
118
1877
937
470
467
649
130
2708
985
479
506
696
143
3051
1071
504
566
706
155
3229
1127
507
620
713
165
3294
1188
511
678
721
171
3324
1245
507
737
722
172
3318
-5.7
-10.5
8.4
1.4
4.7
6.4
0.3
-0.5
1.0
1.6
2.0
5.0
1.4
0.6
2.1
0.2
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.0
1.7
0.1
0.4
0.1
756
1581
622
355
0
15
369
1752
585
430
14
15
125
2266
623
491
27
16
82
3065
678
529
55
16
54
3330
726
582
74
108
50
3447
769
629
81
185
47
3445
797
663
88
259
36
3447
833
690
98
299
30
3413
861
716
106
331
-16.5
3.7
0.0
3.3
0.4
-8.0
3.9
1.6
1.7
10.7
21.1
-1.5
0.3
0.9
1.3
1.6
9.2
-4.4
-0.1
0.8
0.8
1.9
2.5
10.6
0.7
0.0
5.7
1.3
0.0
3.0
8.7
0.4
0.0
3.1
1.3
0.0
3.9
8.8
0.1
0.0
1.7
1.4
0.1
5.6
12.4
1.2
0.0
1.5
1.4
0.1
8.1
13.0
1.0
0.0
1.5
1.4
0.1
9.0
13.7
1.3
0.0
1.6
1.4
0.1
9.4
13.9
1.4
0.0
1.6
1.4
0.1
9.4
13.9
1.4
0.0
1.7
1.4
0.1
9.3
13.8
1.3
0.0
1.8
1.4
0.1
9.3
-1.8
-17.0
3.9
24.8
0.7
3.4
-0.1
-0.7
-11.5
1.1
17.3
6.5
-1.1
-0.1
-1.5
4.9
0.9
-0.1
2.3
0.4
0.7
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
100.0
82.0
83.2
116.4
122.0
128.6
130.5
130.6
129.5
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
134
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Luxembourg: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
0.379
13.5
262.8
9.37
1653
2.99
28.05
786.3
99.0
0.406
18.8
177.6
8.22
1227
2.61
21.50
464.3
97.7
0.434
25.3
143.4
8.37
998
2.44
20.41
349.9
99.8
0.455
29.4
159.8
10.33
7350
2.64
27.22
421.3
98.0
0.477
36.6
139.7
10.71
6012
2.54
27.22
355.0
97.1
0.499
43.8
124.7
10.95
7147
2.50
27.43
312.3
96.7
0.521
51.2
109.9
10.82
7891
2.46
26.65
270.9
96.1
0.544
58.9
97.3
10.53
7466
2.42
25.54
236.0
95.6
0.567
66.1
87.4
10.19
6944
2.38
24.30
208.3
95.3
1.3
6.5
-5.9
-1.1
-4.9
-2.0
-3.1
-7.8
0.0
1.0
3.8
-0.3
2.5
19.7
0.4
2.9
0.1
0.0
0.9
3.4
-2.4
0.1
2.8
-0.3
-0.2
-2.7
0.0
0.9
2.6
-2.3
-0.6
-1.3
-0.3
-0.9
-2.6
0.0
257.2
125.2
104.8
100.2
159.2
116.2
111.9
93.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
96.3
91.5
93.4
124.1
87.2
84.6
83.5
112.4
80.7
74.0
75.5
99.3
73.6
65.5
68.5
86.6
68.2
58.7
61.9
76.1
64.3
53.1
55.5
67.6
-9.0
-2.2
-0.5
0.0
-1.4
-1.7
-1.8
1.2
-1.7
-2.5
-2.0
-2.6
-1.3
-2.1
-2.1
-2.4
1.13
2.98
3.28
2.45
0.21
2.95
0.59
2.63
2.58
2.39
0.34
2.96
0.15
2.46
1.74
2.37
0.65
2.97
0.31
2.52
1.63
2.21
0.48
3.00
0.27
2.46
1.51
2.01
0.46
2.96
0.28
2.40
1.48
1.98
0.46
2.90
0.27
2.35
1.45
1.95
0.50
2.84
0.26
2.32
1.43
1.92
0.50
2.81
0.25
2.28
1.41
1.91
0.48
2.79
-18.4
-1.9
-6.1
-0.3
12.0
0.1
6.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.7
-3.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
0.9
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
275
0
167
155
10
2
0
108
61
0
87
6
15
0
0
722
0
214
155
35
23
0
509
112
0
477
7
25
0
0
895
0
251
155
71
25
0
644
242
0
552
7
85
0
0
964
0
258
155
75
28
0
707
254
0
616
6
85
0
0
1084
0
289
155
104
30
0
795
288
0
723
4
68
0
0
1134
0
294
155
107
33
0
840
275
0
765
4
71
0
0
1092
0
273
155
85
33
0
820
295
0
742
4
74
0
0
12.5
1.9
0.1
4.1
0.0
21.6
29.0
1.4
0.0
3.9
1.7
-0.6
0.0
-2.0
1.0
19.5
14.7
2.1
1.8
0.3
0.2
20.3
0.9
19.1
2.7
-4.5
-2.2
0.3
-0.5
0.8
16.8
52.5
35.6
41.1
42.2
39.9
40.1
32.7
53.7
48.5
0.0
48.5
48.1
11.8
7.8
0.0
7.8
46.9
33.2
15.2
0.0
15.2
48.3
29.6
12.6
0.0
12.6
49.7
29.0
12.8
0.0
12.8
50.0
32.9
13.7
0.0
13.7
49.8
35.1
14.2
0.0
14.2
1.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
3.4
2.1
4.7
4.6
6.1
7.0
6.8
8.2
7.5
9.1
2.1
3.7
1.9
-2.1
3.9
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
2.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.8
0.9

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
5.2
0.5
4.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
6.2
0.5
4.9
0.3
0.5
0.0
7.4
0.6
5.8
0.3
0.7
0.0
8.3
0.8
6.4
0.3
0.8
0.0
9.1
0.9
7.0
0.3
1.0
0.0
9.7
0.9
7.4
0.3
1.2
0.0
10.2
1.0
7.7
0.3
1.3
0.0
10.7
1.0
8.0
0.3
1.4
0.0
11.1
1.0
8.3
0.3
1.4
0.0
3.5
2.6
3.4
4.8
5.8
13779
15267
17074
18268
19129
19515
19593
19588
19571
2.2
1.1
0.2
0.0
3.8
3.2
0.6
0.0
6.0
5.5
0.5
0.0
8.2
7.6
0.6
0.0
9.2
8.8
0.4
0.0
10.6
10.2
0.4
0.0
11.8
11.5
0.3
0.0
12.9
12.6
0.3
0.0
14.0
13.8
0.2
0.0
15.1
14.9
0.2
0.0
8.0
9.0
0.3
2.5
3.0
-5.7
2.0
2.2
-3.0
1.6
1.6
-0.8
282
321
326
313
289
269
252
239
228
1.5
-1.2
-1.4
-1.0

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1007
18
500
345
13
131
0
1307
18
609
482
9
189
0
1877
24
760
757
15
320
0
2708
29
916
1323
9
431
0
3051
31
984
1519
8
509
0
3229
31
986
1656
7
549
0
3294
30
953
1734
6
571
0
3324
29
908
1809
5
572
0
3318
28
862
1878
5
545
0
6.4
2.9
4.3
8.2
2.0
9.3
5.0
2.8
2.6
7.2
-6.1
4.7
0.8
-0.4
-0.3
1.3
-3.3
1.2
0.1
-0.6
-1.0
0.8
-2.2
-0.5

124.7
93.1
132.1
81.1
149.6
93.3
165.9
144.6
167.3
144.4
161.2
141.2
152.5
134.7
141.9
129.0
129.5
124.5
1.8
0.0
1.1
4.5
-0.9
-0.7
-1.6
-0.8
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
135
APPENDIX 2
Malta: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
7
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
7
0
16
0
0
0
0
16
0
0
2
14
0
23
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
5
18
0
25
0
0
0
0
25
0
0
5
20
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
611
0
611
0
611
0
0
890
0
890
0
890
0
0
818
0
818
0
818
0
0
953
0
953
0
953
0
0
989
0
930
0
930
59
0
910
0
776
0
776
57
73
905
0
703
0
703
106
85
843
0
514
0
514
217
95
859
0
513
0
513
220
108

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
581
0
581
0
0
0
0
808
0
808
0
0
0
0
769
0
769
0
0
0
0
953
0
953
0
0
0
0
991
0
930
59
0
0
3
918
0
776
57
0
73
11
921
0
703
106
0
85
27
865
0
514
217
0
95
39
884
0
513
220
0
108
43

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
93.8
5.9
0.0
0.3
0.0
84.6
6.2
0.0
1.2
0.0
76.3
11.5
0.0
3.0
0.0
59.4
25.1
0.0
4.5
0.0
58.1
24.9
0.0
4.8

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
1100
0
0
1100
1632
0
0
1632
1917
0
0
1917
2240
0
0
2240
2217
0
0
2217
1573
0
0
1573
1638
0
26
1612
1700
0
53
1647
1714
0
55
1659
321
0
321
0
0
0
0
463
0
463
0
0
0
0
494
0
494
0
0
0
0
580
0
580
0
0
0
0
559
0
500
58
0
0
0
373
0
315
57
1
0
0
328
0
215
106
7
0
0
250
0
22
217
11
0
0
251
0
20
220
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
0
3
0
0
4
0
4
0
0
5
0
5
0
0
6
0
6
0
0
19
10
12
Non-Energy Uses
332
451
408
528
606
667
718
743
760
0
0
0
55
56
221
42
0
42
73
32
304
43
0
43
76
52
237
46
0
46
89
66
328
50
0
50
102
76
378
55
0
55
114
87
410
62
0
62
124
93
439
68
0
68
130
98
447
74
0
74
134
100
452
0
254
0
78
0
0
0
342
0
108
0
0
0
274
0
135
0
0
0
373
0
155
0
0
0
429
0
174
0
2
0
461
0
196
0
10
0
488
0
213
0
17
0
493
0
228
0
22
0
493
0
241
0
26
1.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
2.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.9
2.4
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
3.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
3.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.1
2.5
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.2
2.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
2.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
2.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
100.0
140.2
134.2
167.3
170.1
141.8
134.8
115.2
115.4
Annual % Change

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
23.8
4.4
23.8
4.4
22.1
0.7
7.6
3.8
-1.7
3.0
1.9
-0.9
-0.5
3.0
1.3
-2.8
-3.1
3.0
1.3
-2.8
6.2
-3.1
7.6
2.4
2.8
2.6
-0.7
-0.4
2.8
1.9
-2.8
6.2
-3.1
7.6
26.9
2.4
4.6
5.7
1.5
-3.0
0.5
5.7
1.5
-3.1
7.6
0.3
4.4
1.2
-5.2
-2.6
4.4
0.1
-8.1
6.2
-21.3
7.6
5.0
22.8
4.9
23.5
1.5
4.9
-3.1
2.5
-0.4
-8.9
-1.8
2.1
4.0
1.7
0.6
1.4
2.1
1.9
3.2
-0.7
0.7
1.4
3.0
3.9
4.8
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.9
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.8
4.6
5.6
2.6
1.3
3.8
2.0
1.5
21.9
0.1
2.7
1.3
-3.0
4.0
3.0
4.4
2.4
1.0
-2.3
-6.0
-1.5
-4.8
-1.8
3.6
4.6
4.8
0.3
-0.4
1.4
-1.4
0.2
0.3
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
0.7
Source: PRIMES
136
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Malta: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
0.352
2.8
208.0
1.65
3121
3.06
5.04
636.1
100.0
0.369
3.6
226.4
2.19
4417
3.08
6.74
698.2
104.5
0.380
4.5
171.2
2.02
5041
3.10
6.27
530.7
100.8
0.403
4.6
209.3
2.37
5562
3.12
7.38
652.5
100.0
0.420
5.2
192.1
2.36
5282
3.05
7.20
585.8
99.8
0.439
6.1
150.4
2.09
3585
2.75
5.74
413.0
99.2
0.454
7.4
124.3
2.03
3609
2.60
5.27
323.0
98.2
0.468
8.6
100.2
1.85
3634
2.36
4.37
236.9
97.4
0.479
9.8
90.6
1.84
3578
2.32
4.28
210.2
97.2
0.8
4.9
-1.9
2.1
4.9
0.1
2.2
-1.8
0.0
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.6
0.5
-0.2
1.4
1.0
0.0
0.8
3.7
-4.3
-1.5
-3.7
-1.6
-3.1
-5.8
0.0
0.5
2.8
-3.1
-0.9
-0.1
-1.1
-2.1
-4.2
0.0
0.0
117.9
183.1
149.8
126.5
117.1
76.9
161.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
92.9
110.4
132.1
136.1
88.2
115.6
134.8
138.5
84.2
108.7
128.5
127.2
79.9
96.8
111.4
112.0
76.0
86.3
100.0
97.9
73.0
78.6
90.7
87.7
-1.6
-5.9
-4.0
-1.3
1.5
3.0
3.3
-1.0
-1.8
-1.9
-2.1
-0.9
-2.1
-2.0
-2.4
0.93
2.26
0.00
1.66
0.00
2.97
0.91
2.24
0.00
1.47
0.00
2.96
0.82
1.98
0.00
1.01
0.50
2.98
0.83
2.10
0.00
1.10
0.49
3.00
0.79
2.11
0.00
1.07
0.54
3.00
0.73
2.06
0.00
0.98
0.49
2.98
0.57
2.03
0.00
0.90
0.42
2.98
0.34
1.98
0.00
0.81
0.41
2.97
0.34
1.94
0.00
0.73
0.40
2.96
-1.3
-1.3
-0.5
0.7
-3.1
-0.4
-5.2
-0.4
-4.9
0.6
0.6
0.1
-1.7
-2.4
-0.1
-2.1
-0.5
0.0

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
472
0
0
0
0
0
0
472
0
0
0
472
0
0
0
483
0
0
0
0
0
0
483
0
0
0
483
0
0
0
538
0
0
0
0
0
0
538
0
0
51
487
0
0
0
543
0
0
0
0
0
0
543
0
0
51
491
1
0
0
555
0
10
0
10
0
0
545
0
0
274
266
5
0
0
603
0
20
0
20
0
0
583
0
0
282
293
7
0
0
639
0
21
0
21
0
0
618
0
0
318
293
7
0
0
1.3
0.3
1.4
43.6
49.5
44.7
31.9
32.8
31.5
30.0
33.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
36.3
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
42.3
0.0
3.9
0.0
3.9
56.6
0.0
6.8
0.0
6.8
56.8
0.0
6.8
0.0
6.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
1.5
0.8
3.1
1.0
4.2
1.2
4.5
1.6

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
0.0
7.6
7.6
1.3
0.1
1.3
0.3
18.2
-5.9
1.5
1.0
5.0
5.2
5.9
4.4
2.4
1.6
2.4
2.2
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.3
0.6
5.6
2.5
2.9
1.9

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
2.4
0.3
0.9
0.0
1.2
0.0
3.4
0.4
1.3
0.0
1.6
0.0
4.0
0.5
1.4
0.0
2.1
0.0
4.4
0.5
1.6
0.0
2.3
0.0
5.0
0.5
1.8
0.0
2.7
0.0
5.7
0.6
2.0
0.0
3.1
0.0
6.3
0.6
2.1
0.0
3.6
0.0
6.8
0.7
2.1
0.0
4.0
0.0
7.2
0.7
2.2
0.0
4.3
0.0
6828
9154
10472
11041
12021
12898
13786
14515
15093
4.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-3.2
-3.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
248
140
111
110
98
84
70
60
53
-7.7
-1.3
-3.3
-2.7

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
221
5
87
57
0
72
0
304
11
160
59
0
74
0
237
10
89
52
0
86
0
328
12
142
84
0
90
0
378
14
175
84
0
104
0
410
15
191
85
0
119
0
439
16
209
84
0
130
0
447
17
214
81
0
135
0
452
16
218
79
0
139
0
0.7
5.8
0.2
-0.8
4.8
3.8
7.0
4.9
1.5
1.6
1.8
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
-0.6
1.8
1.9
2.3
0.7

68.3
81.8
72.4
118.6
46.5
104.3
54.8
167.6
58.1
167.4
57.4
166.3
56.7
161.0
53.9
155.0
51.6
151.0
-3.8
2.5
2.3
4.9
-0.2
-0.4
-0.9
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
137
APPENDIX 2
Netherlands: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
60478
0
4029
54613
881
956
7
942
5
2
0
65988
0
3562
60456
1036
933
8
894
27
4
0
57172
0
2423
51904
1013
1831
12
1739
71
9
0
61834
0
2296
56265
1031
2242
8
2035
178
22
0
56867
0
0
53300
1022
2545
8
2092
360
84
0
56206
0
0
51980
1023
3203
9
2385
626
184
0
53968
0
0
49180
1024
3763
9
2845
641
268
0
45499
0
0
40100
1035
4365
9
3265
748
343
0
38663
0
0
32670
1045
4948
9
3740
812
387
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
17443
9574
30876
47956
-17080
-23799
792
16359
8921
32829
59277
-26448
-26370
980
34331
8222
41673
60955
-19282
-17191
1626
36912
8313
47392
61302
-13910
-20941
1573
43749
7718
50250
66081
-15831
-16148
1337
49481
10254
51218
67165
-15948
-13405
740
54652
11630
52176
68190
-16015
-10552
594
64913
10394
53351
69511
-16159
-510
756

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
67059
9206
24415
30810
881
792
956
73374
9098
27242
34085
1036
980
933
75712
8035
28496
34711
1013
1626
1831
80963
8190
32027
35324
1031
1573
2817
83012
7718
32645
37152
1022
1337
3137
87352
10254
32883
38575
1023
740
3876
89540
11630
33096
38628
1024
594
4567
13.7
36.4
45.9
1.3
1.4
12.4
37.1
46.5
1.4
1.3
10.6
37.6
45.8
1.3
2.4
10.1
39.6
43.6
1.3
3.5
9.3
39.3
44.8
1.2
3.8
11.7
37.6
44.2
1.2
4.4

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
71824
3501
141
68182
81054
4017
406
76631
89599
3925
979
84695
100202
3996
2189
94017
116461
3961
4382
108118

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
14621
5698
702
7651
570
0
0
16843
5900
876
9466
601
0
0
18233
5114
618
11071
1430
0
0
19563
4958
640
11913
2052
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
72281
68767
0
0
3514
83698
80009
0
0
3689
85058
82188
0
0
2870
5410
6247
Non-Energy Uses
9495
Annual % Change
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
-3.3
-5.0
-0.5
1.4
6.7
5.3
6.3
30.9
15.5
0.3
0.1
3.3
-3.6
1.9
17.6
25.1
-0.8
0.0
4.0
0.0
3.1
5.9
12.3
0.2
-4.0
0.2
2.8
0.0
2.8
2.4
3.7
0.1
73316
12636
54028
70227
-16199
5019
577
7.0
-1.5
3.0
2.4
2.5
-0.6
1.9
0.8
2.3
4.2
0.4
0.3
3.0
0.8
0.3
0.3
7.5
-1.9
-7.8
-0.3
90642
10394
33580
39590
1035
756
5287
91651
12636
33700
37689
1045
577
6004
1.2
-1.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
7.5
6.7
0.9
-0.4
1.4
0.7
0.1
-1.9
5.5
0.8
4.2
0.1
0.4
0.0
-7.8
3.8
0.2
0.8
0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
2.8
13.0
37.0
43.1
1.1
5.1
11.5
37.0
43.7
1.1
5.8
13.8
36.8
41.1
1.1
6.6
138471
3967
7568
126936
151535
3971
7896
139669
158379
4686
9312
144382
168110
4733
10279
153098
2.2
1.1
21.4
2.2
2.7
0.1
16.2
2.5
2.7
0.0
6.1
2.6
1.0
1.8
2.7
0.9
19335
4482
0
13101
1752
0
0
22184
7022
0
13481
1681
0
0
24409
8506
0
13900
2002
0
0
24349
7394
4
14571
2382
0
0
25317
9726
0
12821
2770
0
0
2.2
-1.1
-1.3
3.8
9.6
0.6
-1.3
-57.3
1.7
2.1
2.4
6.6
-21.4
0.6
1.3
0.4
1.3
-1.0
-0.8
3.3
89914
86416
0
436
3062
88286
84401
315
551
3020
89399
85203
716
519
2961
90027
85667
1129
462
2769
91046
86669
1328
428
2622
91411
86945
1480
435
2552
1.6
1.8
0.4
0.3
-2.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
13.6
-1.8
-0.9
0.2
0.1
2.7
-0.6
-0.8
5484
6580
6526
6701
6762
6854
6901
0.1
1.8
0.4
0.2
9406
9579
12301
13244
13717
13799
13844
13819
0.1
3.3
0.4
0.0
42924
47670
50125
51588
53843
56289
57622
58781
59663
1.6
0.7
0.7
0.3
12643
9577
3066
9932
9993
10356
12714
8701
4012
11124
11429
12404
13812
9885
3927
10286
12207
13820
14597
10367
4231
10335
11587
15068
15458
11010
4448
10362
11927
16095
16415
11722
4692
10623
12294
16957
16717
11947
4770
10795
12429
17680
17081
12184
4897
10946
12477
18277
17271
12288
4983
11061
12521
18809
0.9
0.3
2.5
0.4
2.0
2.9
1.1
1.1
1.3
0.1
-0.2
1.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.6
1755
12790
21244
6322
439
374
1461
14685
22515
7143
1568
298
1352
16469
21008
8421
2558
317
1515
17366
20335
8986
2981
405
1504
18168
20446
10039
2929
756
1551
18740
20643
11166
3021
1168
1580
19094
19811
12053
3505
1578
1548
19736
19797
12673
3233
1794
1496
20036
19550
13207
3433
1941
-2.6
2.6
-0.1
2.9
19.3
-1.6
1.1
1.0
-0.3
1.8
1.4
9.1
0.5
0.5
-0.3
1.8
1.8
7.6
-0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.9
-0.2
2.1

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
152.2
43.3
13.7
27.0
19.2
18.9
30.1
167.4
49.1
15.8
25.1
20.6
20.7
36.2
165.8
48.9
13.1
24.8
18.9
19.5
40.5
171.6
51.1
14.8
25.4
17.8
18.1
44.4
173.4
50.4
14.5
26.4
17.3
18.0
46.7
186.5
61.2
14.6
27.6
17.2
17.7
48.3
192.8
68.2
14.7
26.3
16.9
17.3
49.5
191.6
65.4
14.7
27.1
16.7
17.0
50.8
196.6
70.3
14.6
26.5
16.5
16.7
52.0
0.9
1.2
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.3
3.0
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.6
-0.9
-0.8
1.4
1.1
3.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.5
100.0
110.0
109.0
112.7
113.9
122.5
126.7
125.9
129.2

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
138
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Netherlands: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
14.893
344.9
194.4
4.50
4823
2.27
10.22
441.3
22.4
15.424
391.4
187.4
4.76
5255
2.28
10.85
427.7
19.3
15.864
477.3
158.6
4.77
5648
2.19
10.45
347.5
38.6
16.306
505.6
160.1
4.97
6145
2.12
10.52
339.3
37.8
16.611
579.8
143.2
5.00
7011
2.09
10.44
299.1
43.5
16.957
644.5
135.5
5.15
8166
2.14
11.00
289.4
46.8
17.209
702.6
127.4
5.20
8805
2.15
11.20
274.4
50.3
17.429
760.4
119.2
5.20
9087
2.11
10.99
252.0
58.8
17.589
811.6
112.9
5.21
9558
2.15
11.18
242.2
65.5
0.6
3.3
-2.0
0.6
1.6
-0.4
0.2
-2.4
0.0
0.5
2.0
-1.0
0.5
2.2
-0.5
0.0
-1.5
0.0
0.4
1.9
-1.2
0.4
2.3
0.3
0.7
-0.9
0.0
0.2
1.5
-1.2
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.0
111.4
133.5
115.8
103.7
113.0
134.0
115.3
109.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
105.3
96.7
87.5
102.9
101.0
85.0
77.6
95.9
98.6
79.0
71.7
90.9
94.4
74.1
66.6
86.9
90.9
69.9
61.8
83.0
87.6
66.7
58.1
80.0
-1.1
-2.9
-1.5
-0.4
0.1
-1.6
-2.5
-0.4
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
-1.0
-0.7
-1.0
-1.4
-0.8
0.56
2.22
2.14
1.93
1.89
2.91
0.48
2.15
1.97
1.85
1.81
2.92
0.39
2.07
1.80
1.84
1.60
2.93
0.35
2.05
1.74
1.72
1.56
2.95
0.32
2.01
1.71
1.67
1.51
2.90
0.34
1.97
1.68
1.62
1.44
2.85
0.34
1.91
1.57
1.56
1.39
2.80
0.32
1.90
1.59
1.53
1.36
2.78
0.33
1.87
1.53
1.50
1.33
2.76
-3.4
-0.7
-1.7
-0.5
-1.7
0.1
-2.1
-0.3
-0.5
-1.0
-0.6
-0.1
0.7
-0.5
-0.8
-0.6
-0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
20113
501
495
37
446
12
0
19116
9089
4171
13574
839
533
0
0
19871
501
1653
37
1565
51
0
17718
9231
4171
11700
825
1022
0
0
26285
501
3042
37
2860
145
0
22742
10128
4171
16310
825
1436
0
0
29633
501
3197
37
2860
300
0
25935
10798
5923
17815
694
1504
0
0
32033
501
3432
37
2872
523
0
28100
12151
5325
20304
663
1808
0
0
34117
541
4114
37
3289
787
0
29462
11964
5359
21679
482
1941
0
0
35928
547
4606
37
3439
1131
0
30775
11838
7473
20615
682
2005
0
0
2.7
0.0
19.9
0.0
20.4
28.0
2.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
13.7
1.2
0.9
3.0
0.0
1.8
8.0
1.8
1.1
0.0
1.9
-0.2
10.4
2.1
1.8
2.5
2.2
-2.2
2.3
0.9
-0.3
3.4
0.2
0.3
1.0
48.8
55.2
48.6
51.2
51.9
50.7
51.0
39.9
32.0
9.7
4.4
5.3
41.3
37.6
12.9
4.0
8.9
48.1
38.7
13.1
3.4
9.7
49.2
36.2
13.3
2.9
10.5
49.2
40.5
13.7
2.6
11.1
51.0
40.0
15.4
3.0
12.4
52.0
37.9
16.0
2.8
13.2
1.8
0.0
3.5
0.0
4.9
2.2
6.0
4.9
6.9
7.5
7.9
8.6
8.8
9.5
1.3
0.7
1.2
0.7
2.8
0.7
1.7
0.5
1.4
2.2
3.5
1.0
1.5
0.3
1.2
2.2
3.1
1.1

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
175.3
13.0
138.7
12.3
9.8
1.5
177.6
12.0
133.2
17.7
13.5
1.2
189.5
11.3
143.4
16.1
17.8
0.9
198.2
11.7
149.5
16.3
19.7
0.9
215.6
12.1
162.0
17.2
23.5
0.9
235.4
12.4
174.5
19.2
28.2
1.0
254.9
12.7
186.7
21.5
33.0
1.0
275.2
12.9
199.0
23.9
38.5
1.1
296.1
13.0
210.8
26.6
44.7
1.1
11769
11514
11944
12153
12979
13879
14809
15793
16837
0.1
0.8
1.3
1.3
94.8
56.1
3.1
35.7
105.7
67.1
3.1
35.5
125.4
79.6
4.5
41.3
131.6
84.2
5.2
42.2
143.8
93.0
5.9
44.9
158.2
102.1
6.7
49.4
172.2
111.7
7.3
53.2
183.7
120.6
7.9
55.2
194.4
128.1
8.4
57.9
2.8
3.6
3.9
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.7
0.9
1.8
1.8
2.2
1.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
0.9

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
0.8
-1.4
0.3
2.7
6.2
-5.4
275
270
263
260
248
245
245
242
239
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
-0.2
10356
104
5043
2899
147
1608
556
12404
105
5525
3325
162
2589
697
13820
95
5286
4254
176
3343
667
15068
91
5999
4933
172
3670
204
16095
90
6268
5283
180
4057
216
16957
88
6370
5647
192
4426
235
17680
86
6409
5986
188
4760
250
18277
85
6402
6266
175
5091
258
18809
85
6511
6318
158
5468
269
2.9
-0.9
0.5
3.9
1.8
7.6
1.8
1.5
-0.5
1.7
2.2
0.3
2.0
-10.6
0.9
-0.5
0.2
1.3
0.4
1.6
1.5
0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.5
-1.7
1.4
0.7
39.4
36.4
47.3
37.9
46.8
39.5
49.7
39.6
48.8
38.8
46.7
37.8
44.6
36.7
42.4
35.9
41.1
34.2
1.7
0.8
0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.5
-0.8
-0.7
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
139
APPENDIX 2
Poland: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
99383
94459
178
2378
0
2369
139
2230
0
0
0
99400
91104
364
3169
0
4763
162
4600
0
0
0
80296
71298
1429
3313
0
4256
181
4072
0
0
3
79265
68876
1489
3884
0
5016
189
4806
12
0
9
68489
57160
750
3200
0
7379
211
7027
128
4
10
66624
53878
700
3100
0
8946
234
8440
237
24
10
65615
51527
700
3000
0
10389
261
9704
300
113
11
67146
47768
650
2800
3996
11931
276
11128
357
158
13
68728
43917
600
2700
8367
13145
299
12243
392
198
13
-2.1
-2.8
23.2
3.4
-1.6
-2.2
-6.2
-0.3
-0.4
-1.0
-0.7
-0.6
0.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.0
6.0
2.7
6.2
5.7
1.5
5.6
76.7
12.4
3.5
2.1
3.3
8.9
38.9
1.9
2.4
1.4
2.4
2.7
5.8
1.3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
2238
-18913
14468
13085
1383
6773
-90
-152
-21202
15481
13984
1498
5810
-241
10131
-16309
20381
18827
1554
6607
-548
16954
-12482
21929
18169
3760
8531
-962
32654
-3446
26139
21685
4454
10911
-859
44880
1848
30071
24763
5308
13638
-567
51934
3704
32772
26839
5933
16093
-510
56586
4198
34770
28364
6406
18552
-790
59300
3893
35820
29144
6676
20606
-861
16.3
12.4
4.7
3.5
3.7
1.2
-0.2
2.5
1.4
11.1
5.1
2.3
2.2
2.9
4.0
1.3
0.5
0.9
0.8
1.2
2.5

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
100021
75405
13399
8938
0
-90
2369
100019
70500
16003
8995
0
-241
4763
90777
56358
20759
9960
0
-548
4249
93935
55184
22525
12235
0
-962
4954
100775
53714
26520
14111
0
-859
7288
111092
55726
30360
16738
0
-567
8837
117108
55230
33030
19093
0
-510
10263
123267
51966
34955
21352
3996
-790
11788
127548
47810
35939
23306
8367
-861
12987
-1.0
-2.9
4.5
1.1
1.1
-0.5
2.5
3.5
1.5
0.3
2.2
3.1
0.9
-1.4
0.8
2.0
6.0
5.5
3.5
2.4
75.4
13.4
8.9
0.0
2.4
70.5
16.0
9.0
0.0
4.8
62.1
22.9
11.0
0.0
4.7
58.7
24.0
13.0
0.0
5.3
53.3
26.3
14.0
0.0
7.2
50.2
27.3
15.1
0.0
8.0
47.2
28.2
16.3
0.0
8.8
42.2
28.4
17.3
3.2
9.6
37.5
28.2
18.3
6.6
10.2
134591
0
1617
132974
137017
0
1888
135130
143147
0
2110
141038
155331
0
2336
152995
169039
0
3938
165101
185082
0
5478
179604
204192
0
6521
197670
221100
18096
7373
195632
236467
37994
8073
190400
0.6
1.7
1.9
1.5
2.7
0.6
6.4
1.6
5.2
1.8
2.2
-0.4

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
43419
41138
1236
673
372
0
0
36847
35842
405
488
114
0
0
35960
34793
228
783
157
0
0
38149
35942
179
1483
546
0
0
38639
36088
29
1192
1330
0
0
41680
38818
32
1567
1263
0
0
42052
39139
31
1641
1241
0
0
39724
36194
121
1823
1586
0
0
36785
33002
25
2211
1546
0
0
-1.9
-1.7
-15.6
1.5
-8.3
0.7
0.4
-18.7
4.3
23.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
3.2
-0.7
-1.3
-1.7
-2.2
3.0
2.2

Refineries
District heating
Others
37855
13160
0
9949
14746
32959
14929
0
5985
12045
33903
19949
0
4320
9635
31826
19591
55
3639
8541
32645
22697
435
3492
6020
35200
25765
840
3417
5177
37443
27862
1411
3573
4597
39275
29348
1791
3932
4204
40172
30076
1982
4205
3910
-1.1
4.2
-0.4
1.3
-8.0
-4.2
-2.1
-4.6
1.4
2.1
12.5
0.2
-2.7
0.7
0.8
3.5
1.6
-1.6
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
6809
7655
7401
7680
9499
10204
10629
11079
11288
0.8
2.5
1.1
0.6
Non-Energy Uses
4193
3646
4218
4354
5164
6288
7279
8210
8965
0.1
2.0
3.5
2.1
59583
63489
55720
57169
63712
71246
77448
82174
85467
-0.7
1.3
2.0
1.0
25252
16252
9000
18126
8867
7338
22720
15428
7292
23284
9229
8256
18883
13374
5509
17516
10136
9185
16373
11149
5225
18375
10334
12087
17763
11638
6125
19484
11575
14891
20118
12822
7297
20511
12968
17649
22387
13996
8391
21316
14167
19578
24195
14950
9245
21751
15172
21057
25487
15742
9745
22186
16148
21647
-2.9
-1.9
-4.8
-0.3
1.3
2.3
-0.6
-1.4
1.1
1.1
1.3
5.0
2.3
1.9
3.2
0.9
2.0
2.8
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.4
1.3
1.0
17066
9104
7987
8233
15563
1631
23299
11582
7735
7703
8763
4408
13728
15452
7447
8317
6886
3889
11262
17798
8400
8498
7056
4156
11688
20424
10657
9701
6670
4572
11381
23487
12432
11167
7204
5575
10863
25600
14043
12719
7610
6613
10706
26878
15396
13818
7923
7453
10428
27334
16393
14947
8081
8285
-2.2
5.4
-0.7
0.1
-7.8
9.1
-1.6
2.8
3.6
1.6
-0.3
1.6
-0.7
2.3
2.8
2.7
1.3
3.8
-0.4
0.7
1.6
1.6
0.6
2.3

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
332.2
209.3
5.8
44.0
33.1
19.4
20.5
330.8
169.9
12.7
59.9
44.4
20.7
23.1
290.3
158.8
11.4
46.3
27.9
20.1
25.8
290.7
162.1
10.6
33.2
30.2
20.4
34.3
304.8
159.8
12.5
37.4
31.6
21.9
41.5
327.8
170.9
12.7
40.3
31.8
23.7
48.5
337.5
172.2
13.0
43.5
31.4
24.6
52.7
333.6
161.9
13.3
46.0
30.9
25.4
56.0
323.3
150.2
12.3
47.7
30.0
26.0
57.1
-1.3
-2.7
6.9
0.5
-1.7
0.4
2.3
0.5
0.1
1.0
-2.1
1.3
0.9
4.9
1.0
0.8
0.3
1.5
-0.1
1.2
2.4
-0.4
-1.4
-0.6
0.9
-0.5
0.6
0.8
100.0
99.6
87.4
87.5
91.8
98.7
101.6
100.4
97.3
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
140
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Poland: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
38.038
144.8
691.0
2.63
3538
3.32
8.73
2294.8
2.2
38.581
161.4
619.7
2.59
3551
3.31
8.57
2049.5
-0.2
38.654
209.9
432.4
2.35
3703
3.20
7.51
1382.7
11.1
38.174
243.8
385.4
2.46
4069
3.09
7.62
1192.6
18.0
37.833
301.3
334.5
2.66
4468
3.02
8.06
1011.6
32.3
37.428
385.3
288.3
2.97
4945
2.95
8.76
850.8
40.2
37.065
472.2
248.0
3.16
5509
2.88
9.10
714.7
44.2
36.836
565.7
217.9
3.35
6002
2.71
9.06
589.6
45.7
36.542
654.3
194.9
3.49
6471
2.53
8.85
494.1
46.3
0.2
3.8
-4.6
-1.1
0.5
-0.4
-1.5
-4.9
0.0
-0.2
3.7
-2.5
1.3
1.9
-0.6
0.7
-3.1
0.0
-0.2
4.6
-2.9
1.7
2.1
-0.5
1.2
-3.4
0.0
-0.1
3.3
-2.4
1.0
1.6
-1.3
-0.3
-3.6
0.0
205.0
182.2
124.3
115.9
181.1
177.3
113.7
116.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
72.5
74.1
89.0
113.3
59.8
64.4
82.0
113.0
51.4
54.2
72.6
104.7
45.9
46.5
64.9
94.8
42.0
39.8
57.5
85.1
39.6
34.9
52.0
75.6
-6.9
-5.8
-2.1
-1.5
-5.0
-4.3
-2.0
1.2
-2.6
-3.2
-2.3
-1.7
-1.5
-2.8
-2.2
-2.2
0.62
1.96
1.74
1.83
2.19
2.80
0.67
2.33
2.64
1.90
2.25
2.80
0.67
2.16
2.45
1.59
1.98
2.81
0.65
2.06
2.02
1.64
1.97
2.84
0.59
2.08
2.11
1.62
1.89
2.79
0.58
2.03
2.00
1.55
1.83
2.75
0.54
1.97
1.94
1.47
1.74
2.69
0.47
1.93
1.90
1.42
1.68
2.66
0.42
1.88
1.87
1.35
1.61
2.64
0.8
0.9
3.5
-1.4
-1.0
0.0
-1.2
-0.4
-1.5
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-1.0
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-0.9
-0.3
-2.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-0.7
-0.2
30194
0
640
635
5
0
0
29554
6632
28139
820
472
122
0
0
31711
0
1038
914
124
0
0
30673
6800
28775
1263
474
160
0
0
32728
0
1689
978
711
0
0
31039
6938
28755
1664
461
160
0
0
34719
0
2385
1072
1313
0
0
32334
7310
29745
1807
472
310
0
0
39073
0
2788
1156
1628
3
0
36285
7994
33696
1807
472
310
0
0
42047
2089
3175
1235
1924
15
0
36784
9087
30534
2775
352
3123
0
0
43363
4385
3353
1235
2077
40
0
35625
9096
28302
3378
296
3650
0
0
0.8
1.8
1.0
10.2
4.4
63.5
5.1
1.7
8.6
25.7
1.9
0.7
2.5
29.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
7.3
-0.2
2.8
1.6
1.4
1.6
0.8
0.2
6.9
-0.2
1.3
-1.7
6.5
-4.6
28.0
49.2
51.1
54.4
56.1
55.2
55.5
57.4
33.7
12.2
2.2
0.0
2.2
34.5
12.9
3.5
0.0
3.5
36.7
22.7
6.8
0.0
6.8
37.1
18.5
7.8
0.0
7.8
40.4
19.4
7.6
0.0
7.6
42.4
20.7
15.7
8.2
7.5
44.5
17.3
24.0
16.1
7.9
7.2
0.0
7.4
0.6
9.3
3.0
10.3
4.9
11.1
7.5
12.8
8.9
13.6
9.6
216.5
31.7
153.1
28.8
2.6
0.3
243.8
29.9
188.3
22.3
3.1
0.2
281.4
28.8
227.6
20.6
4.1
0.2
330.7
29.1
272.8
22.6
5.9
0.3
383.3
31.7
317.6
25.6
8.0
0.3
439.2
34.2
364.0
30.1
10.6
0.4
492.2
36.3
407.8
34.4
13.3
0.4
2.7
-1.0
4.0
-3.3
4.5
-0.8
3.1
1.0
3.4
2.2
6.9
2.5
2.5
1.4
2.5
3.0
5.2
2.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
207.0
46.3
102.8
55.4
2.0
0.5
183.3
34.0
115.0
31.6
2.3
0.3
0.5
-3.7
4.1
-6.3
3.1
-6.8
5441
4750
5601
6387
7438
8836
10341
11923
13470
0.3
2.9
3.4
2.7

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
122.9
40.3
81.6
1.0
120.3
51.2
68.2
0.9
130.2
75.0
54.0
1.2
156.0
111.8
43.8
0.3
193.4
143.3
49.7
0.3
234.2
173.9
60.0
0.4
268.4
198.9
69.0
0.4
296.6
219.8
76.3
0.5
316.7
234.8
81.4
0.5
0.6
6.4
-4.0
1.3
4.0
6.7
-0.8
-11.8
3.3
3.3
3.3
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.7
849
745
620
640
642
608
568
524
484
-3.1
0.3
-1.2
-1.6

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
7338
314
3299
2335
1095
196
99
8256
229
4112
2847
667
371
29
9185
217
4876
3178
539
369
6
12087
190
5324
5748
502
319
2
14891
183
6440
7355
531
380
2
17649
180
7509
8860
609
489
2
19578
187
8319
9808
650
611
3
21057
189
9023
10436
656
750
3
21647
183
9165
10862
553
881
3
2.3
-3.6
4.0
3.1
-6.8
6.5
-24.4
5.0
-1.7
2.8
8.8
-0.2
0.3
-10.3
2.8
0.2
2.6
2.9
2.0
4.9
2.3
1.0
-0.2
1.0
1.0
-1.6
3.7
2.2

19.5
26.9
26.4
28.4
25.8
27.6
24.3
39.4
25.2
40.3
25.0
40.1
24.0
38.7
22.9
37.1
21.0
35.8
2.9
0.3
-0.2
3.9
-0.5
-0.4
-1.3
-0.8
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
141
APPENDIX 2
Portugal: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
2808
115
0
0
0
2692
787
1891
0
11
3
2602
0
0
0
0
2602
717
1831
1
15
37
3109
0
0
0
0
3109
974
2053
14
18
49
3583
0
0
0
0
3583
407
2936
152
23
66
5114
0
0
0
0
5114
870
3326
768
68
82
5488
0
0
0
0
5488
870
3589
843
101
84
6060
0
0
0
0
6060
871
3917
1008
172
91
6831
0
0
0
0
6831
871
4321
1327
198
114
7543
0
0
0
0
7543
872
4877
1401
217
176
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
15160
2789
12367
11360
1007
0
3
17876
3797
14001
13547
454
0
79
21588
3913
15556
12022
3534
2039
80
24040
3223
16338
13459
2878
3893
587
24082
3482
16072
13457
2614
4423
105
25851
4296
16923
14136
2786
4481
151
27463
5145
17483
14582
2900
4750
85
28220
5250
17748
14795
2953
5146
77

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
16890
2580
11614
0
0
3
2692
19611
3493
13437
0
0
79
2602
24108
3803
15083
2034
0
80
3109
26677
3347
15410
3751
0
587
3583
28590
3482
15466
4423
0
105
5114
30697
4296
16281
4481
0
151
5488
32851
5145
16811
4750
0
85
6060
15.3
68.8
0.0
0.0
15.9
17.8
68.5
0.0
0.0
13.3
15.8
62.6
8.4
0.0
12.9
12.5
57.8
14.1
0.0
13.4
12.2
54.1
15.5
0.0
17.9
14.0
53.0
14.6
0.0
17.9
28350
0
9156
19194
33148
0
8358
24791
43364
0
11490
31874
46180
0
6506
39674
60899
0
19160
41739
4304
2027
2105
19
149
3
0
5493
2919
2371
18
148
37
0
6507
3198
1670
1234
356
49
0
8007
3319
1884
2309
430
65
0
11484
11152
0
0
332
14055
13579
0
16
460
12700
12251
0
0
449
658
870
2103
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
1.0
5.1
1.7
2.2
1.4
2.1
0.8
66.9
5.4
31.4
5.1
-1.1
4.9
48.8
13.9
5.2
1.7
0.0
1.6
2.8
9.7
1.1
2.2
0.0
2.2
3.3
2.3
6.8
28175
4748
17608
14739
2869
5750
69
3.6
3.4
2.3
0.6
13.4
1.1
-1.2
0.3
1.1
-3.0
8.1
2.8
1.3
4.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.7
-2.1
0.3
-0.8
0.1
0.1
-0.1
1.9
-2.1
34350
5250
17047
5146
0
77
6831
34993
4748
16884
5750
0
69
7543
3.6
4.0
2.6
1.7
-0.9
0.3
8.1
1.4
4.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
-0.8
0.0
1.9
38.1
1.4
2.8
5.1
-2.1
1.7
-2.1
2.2
15.7
51.2
14.5
0.0
18.4
15.3
49.6
15.0
0.0
19.9
13.6
48.2
16.4
0.0
21.6
68372
0
20099
48273
77280
0
22601
54678
86038
0
26417
59622
93427
0
27338
66089
4.3
3.5
2.4
1.9
2.3
5.2
5.2
2.7
1.7
2.7
1.9
1.9
8217
3477
1356
2609
696
79
0
9116
4292
1355
2512
876
82
0
10047
5142
1270
2618
928
89
0
10420
5246
1150
2823
1089
112
0
10731
4745
1001
3336
1476
174
0
4.2
4.7
-2.3
51.6
9.1
31.4
2.4
0.8
-2.1
7.8
6.9
4.9
2.0
4.0
-0.6
0.0
2.9
1.2
0.7
-0.8
-2.4
2.5
4.8
6.9
13608
13608
0
0
0
13924
13744
180
0
0
14739
14420
318
0
0
15338
14863
475
0
0
15694
15068
626
0
0
15718
15008
710
0
0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.0
0.8
10.2
0.2
0.1
4.1
3.1
881
900
852
911
951
1040
1007
3.0
-0.3
1.1
0.6
1875
2330
2405
2578
2686
2843
2990
3116
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
11208
13042
16937
18654
20251
21758
23232
24493
25289
4.2
1.8
1.4
0.9
4139
2497
1642
2290
1052
3728
4247
2646
1601
2569
1373
4853
5518
3437
2081
2804
2098
6517
5656
3757
1899
3206
2766
7026
5916
3883
2033
3628
3121
7587
6222
4043
2179
4013
3370
8153
6619
4270
2349
4392
3586
8633
6968
4470
2498
4698
3803
9024
7144
4575
2569
4970
3987
9188
2.9
3.2
2.4
2.0
7.2
5.7
0.7
1.2
-0.2
2.6
4.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.6
617
6683
103
2024
28
1752
546
8187
97
2477
36
1698
465
10469
853
3299
134
1716
16
10492
1307
3983
328
2529
4
10797
1750
4716
325
2658
4
11483
1907
5299
321
2745
3
11935
2070
5896
313
3014
3
12163
2258
6466
356
3246
3
12061
2346
7025
440
3414
-2.8
4.6
23.6
5.0
16.8
-0.2
-37.5
0.3
7.4
3.6
9.2
4.5
-2.1
1.0
1.7
2.3
-0.4
1.3
-2.3
0.1
1.3
1.8
3.5
1.3
39.0
14.8
1.5
8.2
1.6
1.9
11.0
48.3
19.2
2.2
8.4
1.9
2.2
14.4
58.5
20.9
2.3
10.8
2.0
3.2
19.4
61.6
24.5
2.3
7.3
2.3
4.2
21.0
63.1
24.1
2.3
7.8
2.5
4.2
22.2
68.6
27.1
2.4
8.7
2.7
4.1
23.6
73.7
30.5
2.4
9.3
2.9
4.0
24.6
75.2
31.0
2.3
9.5
3.1
3.9
25.4
73.7
29.7
2.2
9.1
3.2
3.8
25.7
4.1
3.5
4.3
2.8
2.0
5.4
5.8
0.8
1.5
0.1
-3.2
2.1
2.9
1.4
1.6
2.3
0.3
1.8
1.7
-0.5
1.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
-0.2
0.9
-0.6
0.4
100.0
123.7
149.9
157.8
161.7
175.8
188.8
192.7
188.9
38.1
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
142
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Portugal: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
9.996
102.2
165.2
1.69
2836
2.31
3.91
382.0
86.7
10.018
117.1
167.4
1.96
3309
2.46
4.82
412.3
89.0
10.195
143.1
168.4
2.36
4253
2.43
5.74
408.9
87.2
10.529
147.8
180.5
2.53
4386
2.31
5.85
416.9
88.2
10.655
162.8
175.6
2.68
5715
2.21
5.92
387.7
82.5
10.762
185.2
165.8
2.85
6353
2.24
6.38
370.6
82.5
10.771
212.8
154.4
3.05
7175
2.24
6.84
346.3
81.9
10.730
243.7
141.0
3.20
8019
2.19
7.01
308.8
80.5
10.660
272.8
128.3
3.28
8764
2.11
6.92
270.3
78.9
0.2
3.4
0.2
3.4
4.1
0.5
3.9
0.7
0.0
0.4
1.3
0.4
1.3
3.0
-0.9
0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.1
2.7
-1.3
1.3
2.3
0.2
1.5
-1.1
0.0
-0.1
2.5
-1.8
0.7
2.0
-0.6
0.1
-2.4
0.0
84.8
122.0
68.3
80.1
93.6
112.6
77.7
91.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
102.6
106.3
123.9
104.4
104.0
109.6
124.1
102.4
98.5
107.7
116.9
96.7
93.1
103.8
108.7
89.1
87.6
98.1
101.2
81.3
83.7
93.3
95.3
74.0
1.7
-2.0
3.9
2.2
0.4
0.9
2.2
0.2
-1.1
-0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.1
-1.1
-1.3
-1.8
0.52
2.03
1.99
0.71
1.77
2.95
0.57
2.06
1.97
0.74
1.61
2.96
0.47
2.09
1.96
0.71
1.50
2.97
0.49
1.86
1.30
0.70
1.53
2.98
0.37
1.81
1.32
0.68
1.35
2.93
0.38
1.80
1.40
0.67
1.23
2.89
0.38
1.76
1.41
0.66
1.12
2.85
0.34
1.71
1.37
0.66
1.03
2.82
0.30
1.65
1.28
0.64
0.95
2.80
-1.0
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-1.6
0.1
-2.2
-1.4
-3.9
-0.5
-1.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.7
-0.2
-1.9
-0.3
-2.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.3
-1.6
-0.2
10643
0
4058
3958
100
1
0
6585
1372
1903
1868
2338
463
0
13
13440
0
5284
4234
1047
3
0
8156
1373
1914
3724
2008
493
0
16
21026
0
9242
4310
4852
80
0
11784
1829
1914
6401
1981
1472
0
16
22001
0
9825
4435
5252
138
0
12176
2206
2465
5917
2147
1631
0
16
23631
0
11028
4490
6091
172
274
12603
2222
3040
5919
1941
1682
0
21
26769
0
12947
4490
7933
220
303
13822
2581
3127
6918
1803
1951
0
22
27988
0
13573
4490
8514
233
335
14415
3161
3246
7097
1547
2485
0
41
7.0
1.2
1.7
8.6
0.9
47.4
66.1
1.8
0.4
2.3
8.0
6.0
2.9
0.1
13.1
-1.6
12.3
0.7
2.0
4.7
-0.8
-0.2
1.3
2.1
0.0
3.4
3.1
2.0
1.4
3.6
0.7
1.8
-2.2
4.0
2.1
2.8
6.8
44.8
37.8
32.2
34.4
36.2
35.1
36.6
42.1
11.3
30.8
0.0
30.8
42.6
10.1
21.8
0.0
21.8
43.7
10.4
36.1
0.0
36.1
45.5
12.7
36.5
0.0
36.5
46.8
13.1
36.6
0.0
36.6
49.2
15.5
39.2
0.0
39.2
53.0
17.7
40.1
0.0
40.1
16.7
0.0
16.6
0.0
23.5
2.3
23.2
3.8
23.9
5.4
25.3
6.8
26.7
7.7
2.5
-0.5
3.0
0.4
2.8
2.3
1.9
0.5
1.8
1.6
3.5
1.4
1.6
0.5
1.4
2.5
2.8
1.0

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
52.7
10.3
28.6
6.3
7.1
0.3
68.5
11.3
42.5
5.3
9.1
0.3
88.5
11.8
60.0
4.6
11.7
0.3
100.7
11.1
71.4
4.6
13.2
0.4
112.9
11.2
81.0
4.8
15.5
0.4
125.0
11.5
89.5
5.1
18.5
0.4
137.0
11.8
97.0
5.6
22.0
0.5
149.2
12.2
104.5
6.3
25.7
0.5
160.2
12.4
111.0
7.1
29.1
0.5
5270
6838
8677
9564
10596
11617
12715
13904
15029
5.1
2.0
1.8
1.7

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
26.4
23.1
1.5
1.9
30.7
27.3
2.0
1.4
41.9
38.9
2.2
0.8
46.0
42.6
2.4
1.0
51.5
47.7
2.7
1.1
57.9
53.6
3.1
1.3
63.7
59.0
3.3
1.4
69.3
64.3
3.5
1.5
74.2
68.9
3.8
1.5
4.7
5.4
4.1
-7.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
1.5
1.6
1.3
0.8
5.3
1.4
7.7
-3.2
5.1
-0.3
258
262
293
311
317
313
300
284
272
1.3
0.8
-0.6
-1.0

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
3728
67
1575
1387
82
574
43
4853
90
2299
1717
80
620
46
6517
100
2945
2551
88
790
43
7026
108
3058
2872
66
881
41
7587
103
3288
3061
67
1021
47
8153
100
3426
3340
65
1169
52
8633
100
3494
3619
61
1304
56
9024
97
3509
3872
57
1430
59
9188
91
3358
4100
50
1529
60
5.7
4.2
6.5
6.3
0.6
3.2
0.0
1.5
0.2
1.1
1.8
-2.6
2.6
0.8
1.3
-0.3
0.6
1.7
-1.0
2.5
1.9
0.6
-0.9
-0.4
1.3
-2.0
1.6
0.7

43.0
55.4
44.7
58.4
43.9
62.9
40.6
63.8
39.5
60.7
37.9
59.0
36.0
58.0
34.0
57.0
31.3
56.2
0.2
1.3
-1.0
-0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-1.4
-0.3
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
143
APPENDIX 2
Romania: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
41400
7935
7947
22911
0
2607
1460
1147
0
0
0
32600
7889
7104
14446
0
3162
1435
1726
0
0
0
28774
5879
6389
10968
1407
4131
1271
2854
0
0
7
28181
5793
6120
9701
1433
5134
1737
3314
0
0
82
29440
6233
5608
10349
1474
5775
1597
4066
4
7
100
32197
5691
6183
10925
2869
6529
1632
4730
8
35
123
34973
6954
6172
11008
3609
7229
1653
5350
14
71
142
35722
7575
6167
10383
3681
7916
1693
5956
20
100
147
36715
7466
6164
9822
3755
9508
1788
7413
26
126
155
-3.6
-3.0
-2.2
-7.1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
20360
2423
11194
16094
-4900
5928
815
14542
2870
6852
8735
-1883
4794
26
8099
1905
3542
4836
-1294
2712
-60
10719
2904
3874
8751
-4877
4190
-250
12450
3221
5008
9752
-4744
4524
-248
14749
4646
5732
10959
-5226
4776
-342
18018
5577
7018
12708
-5690
5845
-350
22889
7559
8061
14122
-6061
7704
-356
25517
7663
8785
15101
-6316
9530
-362
-8.8
-2.4
-10.9
-11.3

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
61492
10126
19106
28838
0
815
2607
47109
10796
13886
19240
0
26
3162
37069
7757
10148
13680
1407
-60
4137
39147
8769
10162
13942
1433
-250
5090
41890
9453
10616
14874
1474
-248
5721
46946
10337
11915
15700
2869
-342
6466
52991
12531
13190
16853
3609
-350
7158
58612
15134
14228
18087
3681
-356
7837
62232
15129
14949
19352
3755
-362
9410
16.5
31.1
46.9
0.0
4.2
22.9
29.5
40.8
0.0
6.7
20.9
27.4
36.9
3.8
11.2
22.4
26.0
35.6
3.7
13.0
22.6
25.3
35.5
3.5
13.7
22.0
25.4
33.4
6.1
13.8
23.6
24.9
31.8
6.8
13.5
25.8
24.3
30.9
6.3
13.4
24.3
24.0
31.1
6.0
15.1

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
63398
0
16977
46421
59255
0
16690
42565
51925
5455
14775
31694
59402
5554
20203
33645
67065
6207
18623
42235
79683
11614
19082
48987
92938
14892
19395
58650
108006
15219
19955
72832
119724
15554
21154
83016

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
23389
8166
6202
8984
36
0
0
16475
7352
2997
6090
37
0
0
10638
5442
1684
3507
4
0
0
10103
5982
775
3343
3
0
0
9388
6415
54
2835
84
0
0
9850
7072
0
2753
26
0
0
12219
9049
0
2816
354
0
0
14853
11560
0
2818
474
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
25764
23718
0
496
1551
21571
15646
0
1901
4024
14558
11318
0
1737
1503
17946
14978
0
823
2144
19167
15360
78
1244
2485
21027
17142
161
1049
2675
22752
18880
234
1067
2572
24168
20289
459
1106
2314
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
31.1
1.7
1.1
1.0
0.6
9.4
2.3
0.3
2.8
14.1
25.2
3.5
0.5
0.7
0.0
-1.1
0.4
2.8
0.8
3.3
6.3
6.0
0.9
4.4
5.4
3.5
7.3
3.8
5.6
3.4
2.7
3.5
3.2
2.3
1.7
-7.5
5.3
2.6
5.0
-4.9
-2.6
-6.1
-7.2
1.2
2.0
0.5
0.8
0.5
2.4
2.9
2.2
1.3
9.4
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.4
0.4
4.7
3.3
2.3
2.8
-2.0
-1.4
-3.7
2.6
1.3
2.3
2.9
3.3
9.1
0.4
3.3
2.6
0.4
0.9
3.5
15890
11843
0
2572
1475
0
0
-7.6
-4.0
-12.2
-9.0
-19.0
-1.2
1.7
-29.2
-2.1
34.5
2.7
3.5
2.7
2.7
-0.1
15.5
-0.9
15.3
25169
21265
800
1051
2054
-5.5
-7.1
2.8
3.1
13.4
-0.3
-3.3
5.2
1.7
2.1
11.6
-1.5
0.3
1.0
1.2
13.1
-0.1
-2.2
4.7
-1.4
9.5
0.2
0.6
-1.3
-0.6
0.5
3.4
2.3
3.6
3594
5270
4137
4184
4373
4654
4978
5315
5531
1.4
0.6
1.3
1.1
908
1326
2291
2448
2427
2636
2925
3232
3528
9.7
0.6
1.9
1.9
36548
26449
22374
24625
28044
32019
35906
39666
43152
-4.8
2.3
2.5
1.9
25106
15699
9407
4190
2845
4407
14528
10582
3946
6461
2401
3058
8788
5962
2826
8557
1646
3384
9751
6928
2823
8093
2576
4204
10811
7513
3299
8580
3278
5375
12508
8491
4017
9225
3811
6474
14117
9409
4707
9995
4162
7632
15789
10318
5471
10754
4390
8732
17575
11232
6344
11426
4517
9634
-10.0
-9.2
-11.3
7.4
-5.3
-2.6
2.1
2.3
1.6
0.0
7.1
4.7
2.7
2.3
3.6
1.5
2.4
3.6
2.2
1.8
3.0
1.3
0.8
2.4
2678
8030
20495
4355
377
612
1529
5234
10249
3282
4679
1476
703
5292
6885
3122
3570
2802
1429
6547
7721
3481
2135
3312
1742
7670
8730
4153
1736
4012
1851
8957
9642
5042
1816
4710
1892
10199
10418
6004
2316
5077
1750
11182
11442
7110
2661
5521
1572
11855
12571
7997
3228
5929
-12.5
-4.1
-10.3
-3.3
25.2
16.4
9.5
3.8
2.4
2.9
-7.0
3.7
0.8
2.9
1.8
3.8
2.9
2.4
-1.8
1.5
1.9
2.9
3.4
1.6

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
166.7
75.9
6.2
58.1
7.5
6.7
12.3
113.9
59.2
7.5
30.2
5.2
3.1
8.6
83.6
40.6
7.4
17.6
6.5
1.8
9.6
89.7
37.2
8.0
20.9
7.2
4.4
12.1
96.8
36.4
8.7
22.5
8.2
5.6
15.4
105.5
38.0
9.3
24.9
8.6
6.3
18.5
120.3
46.7
9.7
26.5
9.1
6.6
21.7
136.0
57.3
10.2
27.5
10.0
6.5
24.4
140.3
57.7
10.4
28.6
11.0
6.4
26.2
-6.7
-6.1
1.8
-11.3
-1.4
-12.1
-2.4
1.5
-1.1
1.5
2.5
2.4
11.8
4.8
2.2
2.5
1.2
1.6
1.1
1.5
3.5
1.5
2.1
0.6
0.8
1.9
-0.2
1.9
100.0
68.3
50.1
53.8
58.1
63.3
72.2
81.6
84.2
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
144
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Romania: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
23.211
71.4
861.5
2.65
2731
2.71
7.18
2336.2
33.1
22.194
64.0
735.9
2.12
2670
2.42
5.13
1779.0
30.9
21.908
60.1
617.0
1.69
2370
2.26
3.82
1391.5
21.8
21.659
79.3
493.6
1.81
2743
2.29
4.14
1131.3
27.4
21.302
104.9
399.4
1.97
3148
2.31
4.55
923.2
29.7
20.917
141.1
332.7
2.24
3810
2.25
5.05
748.0
31.4
20.342
185.1
286.3
2.60
4569
2.27
5.92
650.1
34.0
19.746
238.4
245.8
2.97
5470
2.32
6.89
570.3
39.1
19.244
301.8
206.2
3.23
6221
2.25
7.29
464.9
41.0
-0.6
-1.7
-3.3
-4.4
-1.4
-1.8
-6.1
-5.0
0.0
-0.3
5.7
-4.3
1.5
2.9
0.2
1.8
-4.0
0.0
-0.5
5.8
-3.3
2.9
3.8
-0.2
2.7
-3.4
0.0
-0.6
5.0
-3.2
2.2
3.1
-0.1
2.1
-3.3
0.0
219.2
45.4
150.9
109.6
177.7
77.5
131.9
84.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
86.3
61.8
116.3
94.1
74.5
49.5
110.2
91.0
65.5
39.4
94.5
81.5
58.1
32.5
77.5
73.2
52.0
27.1
62.5
65.0
46.9
22.7
50.2
56.7
-7.5
8.2
-4.0
-0.9
-2.9
-6.8
1.0
-0.9
-2.5
-4.1
-3.5
-2.2
-2.1
-3.5
-4.2
-2.5
1.12
2.32
2.31
1.78
2.37
2.79
0.43
1.78
2.08
0.81
1.30
2.81
0.39
1.59
2.00
0.76
1.12
2.85
0.39
1.81
2.14
0.89
1.69
2.89
0.37
1.85
2.08
0.96
1.72
2.87
0.34
1.82
1.99
0.93
1.65
2.85
0.36
1.78
1.87
0.91
1.57
2.85
0.38
1.73
1.74
0.93
1.48
2.80
0.35
1.67
1.63
0.96
1.42
2.72
-10.1
-3.7
-1.4
-8.2
-7.2
0.2
-0.4
1.5
0.4
2.3
4.3
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-0.5
-0.9
-0.1
-0.4
-0.6
-1.4
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
19962
654
5935
5935
0
0
0
13373
5378
7285
3692
2375
20
0
0
19838
650
6215
6212
0
3
0
12972
5459
7139
3459
2354
20
0
0
23212
1330
6404
6365
35
3
0
15478
2259
7129
5886
2442
21
0
0
22644
1342
6789
6713
70
6
0
14513
2215
7675
5115
1702
22
0
0
22094
1726
7123
6993
121
9
0
13245
3144
7866
3865
1204
311
0
0
19252
1764
7243
7046
173
25
0
10245
3490
6538
3002
298
407
0
0
20422
1802
7310
7046
218
46
0
11309
4356
7165
2710
298
1137
0
0
1.5
7.4
0.8
0.7
-0.5
2.6
1.1
0.9
13.1
12.0
-0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
6.1
17.4
1.5
-8.3
-0.2
4.8
0.3
0.1
-1.5
3.4
1.0
-4.1
-6.8
31.1
-1.6
3.3
-0.9
-3.5
-13.0
13.9
27.0
30.8
30.7
38.0
45.4
60.2
62.7
25.6
30.2
39.2
10.5
28.7
28.6
25.8
43.9
9.3
34.5
38.7
19.4
37.7
9.3
28.4
42.8
18.4
38.8
14.6
24.2
41.3
20.7
38.2
16.0
22.1
42.2
20.3
34.4
14.1
20.3
44.9
23.5
35.6
13.0
22.6
17.7
0.0
19.7
0.0
19.2
1.2
19.2
2.1
18.9
2.6
18.6
4.5
20.3
7.3
76.9
11.7
55.5
8.1
1.7
0.0
98.1
14.4
71.5
9.7
2.5
0.0
122.0
16.6
89.5
11.7
4.1
0.0
149.2
18.6
110.2
14.0
6.3
0.0
179.9
20.5
133.9
16.2
9.3
0.0
4.1
4.2
5.8
-3.6
7.5
-2.4
4.7
3.6
4.9
3.7
9.4
0.8
4.0
2.1
4.1
3.3
8.4
0.8

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
68.0
24.0
12.6
30.6
0.7
0.0
51.4
12.3
19.4
18.9
0.7
0.0
51.7
7.7
31.5
11.6
0.8
0.0
60.9
9.4
42.4
8.0
1.2
0.0
-2.7
-10.7
9.6
-9.2
1.6
-7.1
2928
2316
2359
2813
3612
4689
5997
7555
9350
-2.1
4.4
5.2
4.5

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
80.0
29.0
48.9
2.1
40.7
19.7
17.9
3.1
33.3
14.3
16.4
2.6
76.5
51.5
16.6
8.4
101.8
72.2
18.1
11.6
123.5
88.9
20.4
14.2
146.3
105.7
23.5
17.1
168.6
121.9
26.9
19.8
186.3
133.7
30.6
22.0
-8.4
-6.8
-10.4
2.3
11.8
17.6
1.0
15.9
3.7
3.9
2.7
4.0
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.6
1121
636
554
965
971
875
790
707
617
-6.8
5.8
-2.0
-2.4

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
4407
329
591
2617
282
275
312
3058
176
845
1272
470
192
103
3384
117
1681
893
449
128
115
4204
93
1609
2130
208
113
51
5375
109
1997
2836
215
149
69
6474
129
2440
3391
233
197
84
7632
144
2888
3969
243
288
100
8732
155
3331
4494
256
381
116
9634
161
3727
4872
248
497
127
-2.6
-9.9
11.0
-10.2
4.8
-7.3
-9.5
4.7
-0.7
1.7
12.2
-7.1
1.5
-4.9
3.6
2.8
3.8
3.4
1.2
6.8
3.8
2.4
1.1
2.6
2.1
0.2
5.6
2.4

18.7
39.2
25.3
43.2
38.8
41.4
30.4
30.7
29.8
30.3
28.6
29.7
27.4
29.3
26.1
28.7
24.5
28.0
7.6
0.5
-2.6
-3.1
-0.8
-0.3
-1.1
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
145
APPENDIX 2
Slovak Republic: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
5248
1397
81
338
3105
328
162
166
0
0
0
4808
1017
74
264
2950
503
427
76
0
0
0
5970
1018
59
133
4255
506
406
100
0
0
0
6305
637
55
126
4573
914
399
507
1
0
8
5075
846
37
131
3191
869
391
470
1
4
2
5963
845
38
145
3854
1082
425
639
4
11
2
6489
831
39
157
4066
1396
432
931
11
20
3
7284
837
40
170
4571
1665
435
1179
19
29
3
7628
764
40
182
4709
1933
438
1425
28
38
3
1.3
-3.1
-3.1
-8.9
3.2
4.4
9.7
-5.0
-1.6
-1.8
-4.5
-0.1
-2.8
5.6
-0.4
16.8
2.5
-0.2
0.6
1.8
2.5
4.8
1.0
7.1
24.2
16.1
3.4
1.6
-0.8
0.2
1.5
1.5
3.3
0.1
4.3
10.0
7.0
2.0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
16086
6055
4231
5892
-1661
5353
447
12482
4131
3704
5405
-1701
4528
119
11623
3437
2711
5283
-2573
5707
-232
13163
3794
3935
5768
-1833
5757
-281
13448
3504
4008
5956
-1948
6010
-22
14356
3697
4138
6133
-1995
6647
-55
15344
4030
4262
6322
-2060
7199
-43
16152
4419
4323
6423
-2100
7797
-257
16714
4454
4312
6414
-2102
8350
-245
-3.2
-5.5
-4.4
-1.1
1.5
0.2
4.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
1.8
1.5

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
20967
7771
4229
5088
3105
447
328
17692
5414
3487
5217
2950
119
504
17483
4261
2925
5776
4255
-232
498
19407
4288
4045
5925
4573
-281
858
18523
4351
4045
6141
3191
-22
817
20319
4541
4176
6792
3854
-55
1011
21834
4861
4301
7355
4066
-43
1293
23435
5256
4363
7967
4571
-257
1535
24342
5218
4353
8532
4709
-245
1776
-1.8
-5.8
-3.6
1.3
3.2
0.6
0.2
3.3
0.6
-2.8
1.7
1.1
0.6
1.8
2.5
1.1
0.7
0.1
1.5
1.5
4.3
5.1
4.7
3.2
37.1
20.2
24.3
14.8
1.6
30.6
19.7
29.5
16.7
2.8
24.4
16.7
33.0
24.3
2.8
22.1
20.8
30.5
23.6
4.4
23.5
21.8
33.2
17.2
4.4
22.3
20.6
33.4
19.0
5.0
22.3
19.7
33.7
18.6
5.9
22.4
18.6
34.0
19.5
6.5
21.4
17.9
35.0
19.3
7.3
23428
12034
1880
9514
26036
11435
4960
9641
30431
16491
4725
9214
31346
17724
4644
8978
32255
12371
4568
15316
37664
15244
4998
17423
43032
16180
5165
21687
51523
19509
5308
26707
55153
20135
5474
29544
2.6
3.2
9.7
-0.3
0.6
-2.8
-0.3
5.2
2.9
2.7
1.2
3.5
2.5
2.2
0.6
3.1

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
3232
2054
243
936
0
0
0
3170
1835
119
1216
0
0
0
2656
1617
37
1002
0
0
0
2622
1638
99
845
40
0
0
2911
1479
53
1263
117
0
0
3317
1594
111
1440
172
0
0
3977
1802
118
1728
328
0
0
4675
2168
33
1837
637
0
0
4989
2275
10
1875
828
0
0
-1.9
-2.4
-17.1
0.7
0.9
-0.9
3.5
2.3
3.2
2.0
8.5
3.2
10.9
2.3
2.4
-21.8
0.8
9.7

Refineries
District heating
Others
9009
6314
0
237
2458
7973
5182
0
731
2060
8020
5410
0
584
2026
9335
6374
11
717
2233
10006
6765
49
877
2315
10223
6954
106
820
2343
10558
7214
175
708
2460
10755
7376
222
725
2432
10711
7384
266
754
2308
-1.2
-1.5
2.2
2.3
9.4
-1.9
4.2
1.3
0.5
0.6
13.5
-2.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
4.2
0.6
-0.6
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
1154
990
905
2482
2073
2138
2222
2323
2338
-2.4
8.6
0.7
0.5
Non-Energy Uses
1203
651
1109
1239
1263
1338
1508
1677
1783
-0.8
1.3
1.8
1.7
14893
11085
10822
10560
11597
12585
13512
14291
14850
-3.1
0.7
1.5
0.9
6706
4081
2626
2275
4473
1440
4339
3091
1248
2158
3078
1509
3953
3145
808
2822
2498
1549
4413
3590
823
2533
1809
1805
4873
3973
900
2641
1936
2148
5268
4295
973
2808
2160
2349
5583
4507
1075
3023
2414
2493
5793
4629
1164
3254
2655
2589
5862
4657
1205
3476
2876
2636
-5.1
-2.6
-11.1
2.2
-5.7
0.7
2.1
2.4
1.1
-0.7
-2.5
3.3
1.4
1.3
1.8
1.4
2.2
1.5
0.5
0.3
1.1
1.4
1.8
0.6
4319
3294
4319
2013
781
166
2322
1873
3907
1868
1111
4
1511
1870
4537
1893
1011
1
1455
2195
3651
1965
951
344
1832
2447
3502
2382
1283
152
1920
2596
3773
2764
1234
298
1975
2676
4019
3181
1243
418
2016
2739
4367
3595
1230
344
1922
2736
4734
3879
1207
372
-10.0
-5.5
0.5
-0.6
2.6
-42.8
1.9
2.7
-2.6
2.3
2.4
73.3
0.8
0.9
1.4
2.9
-0.3
10.6
-0.3
0.2
1.7
2.0
-0.3
-1.2
53.3
12.1
2.5
17.8
4.4
12.6
4.0
39.7
12.9
1.8
12.2
2.9
5.7
4.2
35.1
10.6
1.5
10.3
4.1
4.2
4.4
37.1
10.5
5.0
10.4
3.5
2.5
5.2
39.4
11.3
4.5
11.8
3.4
2.2
6.2
41.9
12.2
4.6
12.3
3.8
2.3
6.6
44.4
13.5
4.9
12.6
4.2
2.3
6.9
47.1
14.9
5.1
13.0
4.8
2.3
7.1
48.0
15.3
5.0
12.7
5.4
2.4
7.1
-4.1
-1.3
-4.6
-5.3
-0.6
-10.3
0.8
1.2
0.7
11.3
1.3
-1.8
-6.1
3.5
1.2
1.8
0.8
0.7
2.1
0.4
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.3
0.1
2.5
0.3
0.3
100.0
74.5
65.9
69.7
74.0
78.7
83.4
88.4
90.0
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
146
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Slovak Republic: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
5.288
26.3
797.9
3.97
4431
2.54
10.07
2027.3
76.7
5.356
25.7
688.1
3.30
4861
2.24
7.41
1543.8
70.6
5.399
30.5
574.0
3.24
5637
2.01
6.50
1152.8
66.5
5.385
38.1
509.2
3.60
5821
1.91
6.90
974.5
67.8
5.354
50.0
370.3
3.46
6025
2.13
7.36
787.6
72.6
5.309
62.8
323.8
3.83
7094
2.06
7.89
667.8
70.7
5.271
77.6
281.5
4.14
8165
2.03
8.43
572.5
70.3
5.237
92.3
253.8
4.48
9839
2.01
9.00
510.2
68.9
5.186
105.7
230.2
4.69
10635
1.97
9.25
453.6
68.7
0.2
1.5
-3.2
-2.0
2.4
-2.3
-4.3
-5.5
0.0
-0.1
5.1
-4.3
0.7
0.7
0.6
1.2
-3.7
0.0
-0.2
4.5
-2.7
1.8
3.1
-0.4
1.4
-3.1
0.0
-0.2
3.1
-2.0
1.3
2.7
-0.3
0.9
-2.3
0.0
193.1
82.4
178.8
107.7
137.4
95.9
146.3
115.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
67.5
72.6
68.4
93.1
54.4
59.9
56.9
84.4
46.6
51.7
50.6
73.6
40.4
45.6
46.0
63.2
36.0
41.6
42.2
55.1
33.4
39.1
39.0
49.0
-6.4
2.0
-5.6
-0.7
-5.9
-5.0
-5.5
-1.7
-2.9
-2.7
-2.1
-2.9
-1.9
-1.5
-1.6
-2.5
0.34
2.60
2.65
1.93
2.81
2.80
0.30
2.26
2.82
1.35
1.87
2.76
0.23
2.13
2.61
1.46
1.69
2.82
0.23
2.05
2.37
1.39
1.37
2.89
0.22
2.03
2.41
1.30
1.16
2.87
0.22
1.99
2.34
1.36
1.06
2.82
0.22
1.93
2.26
1.40
0.97
2.76
0.21
1.90
2.25
1.47
0.88
2.73
0.21
1.86
2.16
1.56
0.84
2.69
-3.8
-2.0
-0.2
-2.8
-4.9
0.1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.8
-1.1
-3.7
0.2
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
0.7
-1.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
1.1
-1.4
-0.3

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
6795
2326
1669
1668
1
0
0
2800
1220
1598
1184
18
1
0
0
7307
2439
1838
1832
5
0
0
3031
1400
1661
1221
115
34
0
0
8128
1652
1894
1882
10
2
0
4582
1716
1846
2557
115
64
0
0
8571
2011
2038
1996
35
7
0
4522
1627
1696
2647
115
64
0
0
7980
2132
2118
2013
90
15
0
3730
1690
1401
2084
114
131
0
0
8751
2385
2203
2021
155
26
0
4164
1713
1726
2088
114
235
0
0
8989
2457
2305
2029
236
40
0
4227
1820
1675
2097
114
341
0
0
1.8
-3.4
1.3
1.2
26.0
-0.2
2.6
1.1
0.7
24.5
24.6
1.2
1.4
0.8
0.1
10.1
10.2
5.0
3.5
1.5
8.0
20.7
51.8
-2.0
-0.2
-2.7
-2.0
-0.1
7.5
1.3
0.7
1.8
0.1
0.0
10.0
45.5
44.3
43.2
48.0
58.9
64.0
66.6
29.8
26.0
69.7
54.2
15.5
29.4
15.8
71.9
56.5
15.4
45.3
26.5
54.2
38.4
15.8
45.2
23.5
55.8
40.5
15.3
46.9
24.6
53.6
37.6
16.0
49.1
22.1
54.7
37.9
16.9
50.9
21.6
54.5
36.5
18.0
3.6
0.0
6.9
0.7
5.4
2.0
6.4
3.9
7.6
6.1
8.5
7.4
9.4
8.8
0.9
-0.6
1.7
-3.0
2.0
-0.3
2.7
0.4
6.5
1.9
0.0
2.3
0.9
4.7

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
41.5
19.5
15.6
6.4
0.0
0.0
34.2
11.2
18.4
4.6
0.0
0.0
35.8
8.4
24.1
3.2
0.0
0.0
36.4
8.1
25.6
2.5
0.1
0.0
39.1
7.9
28.6
2.4
0.2
0.0
42.5
7.7
32.1
2.4
0.3
0.0
47.8
7.6
37.3
2.5
0.4
0.0
53.2
7.6
42.5
2.6
0.5
0.0
57.9
7.6
46.9
2.7
0.7
0.0
-1.5
-8.1
4.5
-6.6
7841
6386
6633
6762
7300
8006
9073
10152
11159
-1.7
1.0
2.2
2.1

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
35.6
14.2
21.4
0.0
29.7
15.9
13.8
0.0
25.6
14.3
11.2
0.0
32.0
22.6
9.5
0.0
41.7
31.7
10.0
0.0
47.4
36.3
11.1
0.0
50.3
38.6
11.7
0.0
52.4
40.4
11.9
0.0
54.1
42.0
12.1
0.0
-3.3
0.1
-6.2
5.0
8.2
-1.2
1.9
2.0
1.6
0.7
0.8
0.4
1355
1155
840
840
833
755
648
567
512
-4.7
-0.1
-2.5
-2.3

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1440
96
671
572
100
0
0
1509
79
729
583
119
0
0
1549
70
886
510
83
0
0
1805
59
964
693
49
39
0
2148
55
1018
971
50
55
0
2349
51
1075
1103
51
69
0
2493
48
1176
1136
49
84
0
2589
45
1253
1146
47
98
0
2636
43
1278
1160
45
109
0
0.7
-3.1
2.8
-1.1
-1.9
3.3
-2.5
1.4
6.6
-5.0
1.5
-1.2
1.5
1.6
-0.1
4.3
0.6
-1.3
0.8
0.2
-0.8
2.7

19.3
17.9
25.0
22.0
27.6
21.9
29.6
22.7
29.2
24.1
28.4
24.1
27.6
23.3
26.5
22.6
24.9
22.1
3.6
2.0
0.6
1.0
-0.6
-0.3
-1.0
-0.5
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
147
APPENDIX 2
Slovenia: Baseline scenario
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
2902
1432
3
20
1192
254
254
0
0
0
0
3020
1216
2
16
1245
542
279
263
0
0
0
3085
1062
1
6
1228
788
330
458
0
0
0
3492
1184
0
3
1518
787
298
489
0
0
0
3571
1226
0
4
1483
857
304
545
0
7
0
3479
1026
0
0
1483
969
313
622
1
33
0
3698
1105
0
0
1483
1109
324
720
2
63
0
3726
1147
0
0
1333
1247
346
816
2
82
0
4049
1294
0
0
1362
1393
371
924
3
95
0
0.6
-2.9
-10.4
-11.4
0.3
12.0
2.7
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
2567
130
1798
596
1202
723
-85
3056
187
2231
587
1644
750
-142
3369
245
2418
151
2267
820
-114
3810
323
2589
0
2589
925
-28
4566
353
3005
1
3003
1156
52
5207
384
3316
1
3315
1283
224
5527
460
3483
1
3481
1367
218
5632
490
3638
1
3637
1462
42
5730
509
3719
2
3718
1588
-86
2.8
6.5
3.0
-12.8
6.5
1.3

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
5517
1645
1748
763
1192
-85
254
6103
1402
2281
746
1245
-142
571
6415
1306
2381
826
1228
-114
788
7305
1539
2560
929
1518
-28
787
8136
1579
3005
1161
1483
52
857
8686
1410
3316
1283
1483
224
969
9225
1565
3483
1367
1483
218
1109
9358
1637
3638
1462
1333
42
1247
9779
1802
3719
1588
1362
-86
1393

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
29.8
31.7
13.8
21.6
4.6
23.0
37.4
12.2
20.4
9.3
20.4
37.1
12.9
19.1
12.3
21.1
35.0
12.7
20.8
10.8
19.4
36.9
14.3
18.2
10.5
16.2
38.2
14.8
17.1
11.2
17.0
37.8
14.8
16.1
12.0
17.5
38.9
15.6
14.2
13.3
18.4
38.0
16.2
13.9
14.2
12440
4621
2949
4869
12652
4778
3240
4633
13622
4760
3833
5028
15114
5883
3460
5771
16425
5751
3542
7132
16074
5751
3642
6681
17992
5751
3783
8458
21408
6036
4053
11320
1543
1296
155
92
0
0
0
1523
1315
119
90
0
0
0
1342
1253
12
62
15
0
0
1507
1411
9
58
30
0
0
1608
1479
3
97
29
0
0
1436
1292
1
111
32
0
0
1619
1428
1
119
71
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
594
540
0
53
1
580
503
0
76
1
253
169
0
83
0
90
1
0
89
0
201
1
42
157
0
261
1
106
154
0
122
121
112
104
127
121
234
305
371
3368
3940
4431
4880
1468
728
740
850
122
928
1179
587
593
1176
259
1326
1423
839
584
1122
578
1309
243
1507
603
837
177
0
115
2098
468
807
192
260
13.2
6.2
0.1
2.5
1.7
0.0
2.7
100.0
Annual % Change

Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
1.5
1.4
0.3
-1.0
0.9
1.6
0.0
2.6
0.6
2.8
27.1
24.0
1.4
-0.8
2.3
1.4
2.5
4.4
4.2
0.7
3.1
3.7
2.2
-38.2
2.9
3.5
1.9
2.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
15.5
0.4
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.5
1.5
-2.3
3.1
0.8
0.3
2.4
1.9
2.4
3.5
1.9
0.6
1.4
0.7
1.5
-0.8
12.0
0.8
1.3
-0.1
1.5
1.7
0.0
15.5
2.6
24265
6169
4351
13745
0.9
0.3
2.7
0.3
1.9
1.9
-0.8
3.6
0.9
0.0
0.7
1.7
3.0
0.7
1.4
5.0
1810
1491
1
210
108
0
0
2174
1659
1
316
197
0
0
-1.4
-0.3
-22.8
-3.8
1.8
1.7
-11.5
4.6
6.5
0.1
-0.3
-10.5
2.0
9.4
3.0
1.5
0.0
10.3
10.8
312
1
170
141
0
345
1
215
128
0
338
2
256
81
0
-8.2
-11.0
-2.3
-38.9
4.7
6.5
4.5
1.4
14.9
-1.1
0.8
0.6
4.2
-5.4
115
126
156
174
-0.9
1.2
-0.1
3.3
419
448
470
490
43.5
4.7
1.9
0.9
5608
6247
6725
7039
7257
2.8
2.4
1.8
0.8
1655
1036
619
1183
573
1469
1838
1146
692
1266
618
1886
1969
1241
728
1368
687
2223
2072
1313
758
1466
738
2449
2145
1363
782
1514
767
2614
2194
1394
800
1561
800
2702
-0.3
1.4
-2.3
2.8
16.9
3.5
2.6
3.2
1.7
1.2
0.7
3.7
1.2
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.8
2.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.0
97
2231
569
905
195
435
80
2392
665
1096
196
452
69
2795
783
1261
198
502
82
3088
882
1404
211
580
99
3237
941
1539
229
679
103
3381
957
1622
232
744
98
3445
1018
1714
209
773
-8.8
4.0
-0.6
0.8
1.0
-3.3
2.3
3.2
3.4
0.1
1.4
3.7
1.5
1.9
2.0
1.5
3.1
-0.1
0.6
0.8
1.1
-0.9
1.3
14.1
6.2
0.1
1.8
2.1
0.0
3.9
14.0
5.5
0.1
2.3
1.3
1.0
3.8
15.2
6.2
0.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
4.3
17.2
6.7
0.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
5.5
17.6
5.9
0.0
2.6
1.6
1.1
6.3
18.8
6.5
0.0
2.7
1.7
1.1
6.8
19.7
6.9
0.0
2.6
1.8
1.1
7.2
20.9
7.7
0.0
2.7
1.9
1.1
7.4
0.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
-2.5
46.9
3.5
2.1
1.9
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.7
0.7
3.7
0.7
1.2
0.5
2.3
1.1
1.8
0.6
0.2
1.1
0.3
0.7
106.8
106.3
115.7
130.5
133.4
142.9
149.8
158.7
-3.3
1.9
0.8
-0.8
1.8
2.3
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
148
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Slovenia: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
1.996
19.4
284.7
2.76
6231
2.38
6.59
679.0
46.5
1.989
18.8
324.3
3.07
6359
2.30
7.07
746.9
50.1
1.988
23.3
274.9
3.23
6853
2.18
7.03
599.2
52.5
1.998
27.6
264.3
3.66
7566
2.08
7.62
551.0
52.2
2.010
33.7
241.5
4.05
8171
2.11
8.54
509.8
56.1
2.019
38.8
223.9
4.30
7962
2.02
8.70
452.6
59.9
2.017
43.5
212.2
4.57
8921
2.04
9.32
432.4
59.9
2.014
48.1
194.5
4.65
10629
2.11
9.79
409.8
60.2
2.006
52.3
186.9
4.87
12096
2.13
10.41
398.9
58.6
0.0
1.9
-0.3
1.6
1.0
-0.9
0.7
-1.2
0.0
0.1
3.7
-1.3
2.3
1.8
-0.3
2.0
-1.6
0.0
0.0
2.6
-1.3
1.2
0.9
-0.4
0.9
-1.6
0.0
-0.1
1.9
-1.3
0.6
3.1
0.5
1.1
-0.8
0.0
109.4
97.8
26.5
85.4
109.3
122.0
53.6
125.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
95.0
92.6
82.6
94.8
86.4
82.0
73.9
99.8
81.2
77.4
71.4
102.2
77.0
74.3
68.4
100.4
73.6
69.6
63.6
96.9
71.0
66.2
60.4
92.1
-0.9
0.2
14.2
1.6
-1.4
-2.0
-3.0
0.0
-1.1
-1.0
-0.8
0.1
-0.8
-1.1
-1.2
-0.9
0.42
2.05
1.72
1.98
0.17
2.88
0.41
1.99
1.55
1.80
0.13
2.91
0.34
1.89
1.65
1.17
1.65
2.89
0.34
1.85
1.38
1.21
1.76
2.94
0.34
1.87
1.35
1.22
1.65
2.89
0.31
1.87
1.34
1.20
1.57
2.84
0.30
1.83
1.28
1.19
1.45
2.80
0.28
1.82
1.23
1.22
1.44
2.76
0.29
1.81
1.24
1.24
1.38
2.73
-2.0
-0.8
-0.4
-5.2
25.7
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-2.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
-1.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4
0.4
-0.5
-0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
2861
656
964
964
0
0
0
1241
244
996
81
142
21
0
0
3188
656
975
975
0
0
0
1557
363
1013
374
99
71
0
0
3431
666
982
980
2
0
0
1783
413
1057
530
100
95
0
0
3513
666
1041
1033
7
1
0
1806
403
1117
525
73
91
0
0
3565
666
1061
1038
22
1
0
1839
590
1017
632
60
130
0
0
3834
697
1070
1039
29
1
0
2067
635
1333
558
23
154
0
0
4082
712
1092
1056
34
2
0
2277
782
1204
883
0
189
0
0
1.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.6
27.1
11.2
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.2
4.4
8.2
3.7
5.4
0.6
20.7
-3.4
16.2
0.3
3.6
-0.4
1.8
-5.0
3.2
2.2
2.9
1.7
3.4
-38.9
3.8
51.1
50.7
50.9
49.1
54.2
59.5
63.3
32.2
3.5
63.9
34.9
29.0
32.9
3.2
63.0
38.9
24.1
38.1
9.4
57.9
35.0
22.9
40.0
13.1
60.3
35.8
24.5
44.9
19.3
56.5
32.0
24.5
53.8
18.6
51.1
28.2
22.9
54.4
16.4
48.6
25.4
23.2
17.0
0.0
15.1
0.0
14.4
1.9
14.5
4.0
15.3
5.8
16.2
6.9
17.5
8.0
2.2
-5.6
2.7
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.1
1.9
3.1
5.3
1.7
1.2
1.6
2.4
5.0

Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport

- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
18.1
6.4
10.0
1.4
0.2
0.0
15.5
2.5
12.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
17.2
1.6
14.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
18.7
0.9
16.8
0.8
0.3
0.0
21.3
0.9
19.2
0.9
0.3
0.0
23.6
0.9
21.3
1.1
0.4
0.0
25.9
1.0
23.2
1.2
0.5
0.0
28.3
1.1
25.2
1.4
0.6
0.0
30.5
1.1
27.1
1.5
0.8
0.0
9045
7795
8646
9366
10595
11703
12853
14044
15228
-0.4
2.1
2.0
1.7
9.1
4.9
4.2
0.0
6.4
3.3
3.1
0.0
8.2
5.3
2.9
0.0
14.3
11.0
3.2
0.0
20.3
15.9
4.5
0.0
24.1
19.0
5.2
0.0
26.9
21.4
5.5
0.0
29.4
23.4
6.0
0.0
31.6
25.0
6.6
0.0
-1.1
0.8
-3.8
9.6
11.6
4.6
2.8
3.0
2.1
1.6
1.5
1.9

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
-0.5
-13.1
3.9
-6.8
3.1
470
339
350
517
604
622
619
611
604
-2.9
5.6
0.2
-0.2

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
928
43
498
330
29
27
0
1326
58
727
492
29
20
0
1309
15
867
368
34
25
0
1469
7
828
582
29
23
0
1886
8
937
878
38
25
0
2223
8
999
1144
43
30
0
2449
8
1024
1337
42
37
0
2614
8
1064
1454
42
45
0
2702
8
1110
1497
33
54
0
3.5
-10.0
5.7
1.1
1.4
-0.8
3.7
-6.7
0.8
9.1
1.3
0.1
2.6
0.3
0.9
4.3
1.0
4.1
1.0
0.6
0.8
1.1
-2.4
3.7

31.6
39.1
52.1
81.1
52.9
48.9
46.0
42.6
45.6
44.9
44.0
49.1
41.3
51.2
39.6
50.9
38.4
48.4
5.3
2.3
-1.5
-0.9
-1.0
1.3
-0.7
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
149
APPENDIX 2
Spain: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
33724
11679
794
1273
13701
6276
2184
4067
1
21
2
31355
10170
779
379
14305
5722
1987
3684
23
25
3
31345
7740
225
148
16046
7185
2534
4205
406
33
8
30126
6265
165
144
14842
8710
1681
5129
1825
68
8
35274
5856
166
130
15753
13368
2359
7693
3032
276
8
36406
4664
150
100
14989
16503
2244
8577
5184
489
8
40549
4251
100
0
14989
21209
2298
11401
6723
779
8
35388
3062
0
0
8817
23508
2419
12883
7128
1070
8
39248
2577
0
0
10652
26019
2552
14929
7293
1237
8
-0.7
-4.0
-11.8
-19.4
1.6
1.4
1.5
0.3
79.0
4.5
12.3
1.2
-2.8
-3.0
-1.3
-0.2
6.4
-0.7
6.2
22.3
23.8
0.4
1.4
-3.2
-4.9
-0.3
-4.9
-0.5
4.7
-0.3
4.0
8.3
10.9
0.3
-3.4
2.1
1.1
2.7
0.8
4.7
-0.1
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
59857
7038
49166
53256
-4091
3690
-36
75415
9146
58363
55362
3001
7521
386
98351
12636
69866
58393
11473
15467
382
122830
14418
78279
59850
18429
30248
-115
130537
15655
79388
61245
18143
35008
264
140086
16803
82136
63196
18941
40564
334
140732
17394
84422
64845
19577
38360
225
148039
24744
85685
65776
19909
37257
-20
142672
23705
85245
65584
19661
33285
3
5.1
6.0
3.6
0.9
2.9
2.2
1.3
0.5
4.7
8.5
-3.6
0.8
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
-1.6
0.1
3.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-1.4
-34.6

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
89401
18942
45547
4970
13701
-36
6276
102207
19515
54556
7722
14305
385
5723
122698
20643
63223
15219
16046
382
7185
143487
20698
69507
29844
14842
-115
8711
157295
21511
71038
35138
15753
264
13591
167499
21468
73293
40664
14989
334
16752
171906
21645
75147
38360
14989
225
21540
173806
27806
76064
37257
8817
-20
23882
172279
26283
75604
33285
10652
3
26452
1.4
2.5
0.4
1.2
8.7
-0.2
-3.6
6.6
0.9
0.1
0.6
0.9
-0.5
-1.6
4.7
0.0
2.0
0.1
-1.4
-3.4
-34.6
2.1
21.2
50.9
5.6
15.3
7.0
19.1
53.4
7.6
14.0
5.6
16.8
51.5
12.4
13.1
5.9
14.4
48.4
20.8
10.3
6.1
13.7
45.2
22.3
10.0
8.6
12.8
43.8
24.3
8.9
10.0
12.6
43.7
22.3
8.7
12.5
16.0
43.8
21.4
5.1
13.7
15.3
43.9
19.3
6.2
15.4
150944
54258
25409
71276
165585
55445
23381
86759
222776
62195
34206
126375
290555
57529
40843
192183
330397
61059
63359
205979
363761
58096
87713
217951
386819
58096
107746
220977
406570
34176
115878
256517
416795
48490
120472
247833
4.0
1.4
3.0
5.9
4.0
-0.2
6.4
5.0
1.6
-0.5
5.5
0.7
0.7
-1.8
1.1
1.2

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
16682
13881
2170
486
145
0
0
18603
13585
3654
987
377
0
0
26461
18249
4442
3075
694
0
0
35416
17641
5246
11140
1389
0
0
37972
18899
1896
14182
2995
0
0
39441
19065
557
18017
1802
0
0
38260
19331
604
13452
4873
0
0
43758
25635
700
11535
5888
0
0
39831
24193
726
8517
6395
0
0
4.7
2.8
7.4
20.3
16.9
3.7
0.4
-8.2
16.5
15.7
0.1
0.2
-10.8
-0.5
5.0
0.4
2.3
1.9
-4.5
2.8

Refineries
District heating
Others
57883
53753
0
0
4131
58965
56041
0
0
2924
63144
60048
65
0
3031
63843
60507
259
0
3077
65288
60979
2096
0
2213
68677
63157
3651
0
1869
70933
64882
4405
0
1646
72094
65779
4888
0
1427
71998
65623
5171
0
1205
0.9
1.1
0.3
0.2
41.5
-3.0
-3.1
0.8
0.6
7.7
-0.5
-2.9
0.1
0.1
1.6
0.6
-3.1
4757
5473
6118
6397
5854
5975
6151
6517
6549
2.5
-0.4
0.5
0.6
Non-Energy Uses
5847
8006
9094
7823
8098
8600
9081
9428
9613
4.5
-1.2
1.2
0.6
56647
63536
79422
97170
108516
117655
122658
125386
126148
3.4
3.2
1.2
0.3
20014
13069
6945
9266
5041
22326
20476
13620
6856
9986
7007
26069
25474
17260
8213
11871
9219
32858
31036
20421
10615
15150
11556
39428
34229
22305
11924
16865
12631
44791
37377
24152
13226
17666
13455
49157
39390
25140
14250
17768
13751
51750
40265
25517
14748
17798
13933
53390
40532
25582
14950
17664
13972
53980
2.4
2.8
1.7
2.5
6.2
3.9
3.0
2.6
3.8
3.6
3.2
3.1
1.4
1.2
1.8
0.5
0.9
1.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.4
3524
33488
4873
10817
0
3945
2235
38971
6841
12116
39
3335
1671
45784
12141
16205
74
3547
1782
52776
17978
20827
0
3806
1633
56829
20792
24489
21
4752
1591
59943
22164
27189
20
6748
1602
61325
24277
28798
27
6629
1575
61962
24857
29785
25
7182
1598
61428
24029
30537
24
8532
-7.2
3.2
9.6
4.1
-1.1
-0.2
2.2
5.5
4.2
-11.9
3.0
-0.2
0.8
1.6
1.6
2.7
3.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.6
-1.2
2.6

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
203.3
63.6
11.5
41.9
12.9
7.7
65.6
225.7
68.2
13.1
43.4
13.6
10.5
76.9
283.2
94.1
13.6
48.9
16.4
12.9
97.3
339.4
113.2
14.7
58.2
20.4
16.2
116.7
357.7
114.3
13.6
63.7
21.2
16.3
128.5
375.8
119.6
14.0
66.2
21.6
16.6
137.8
375.2
110.1
14.0
70.0
21.0
16.3
143.8
398.6
130.7
13.9
70.3
20.5
15.9
147.3
381.3
118.0
13.1
67.2
19.9
15.3
147.8
3.4
4.0
1.6
1.6
2.5
5.3
4.0
2.4
2.0
0.1
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.8
0.5
-0.4
0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.0
1.1
0.2
0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
0.3
100.0
111.0
139.3
166.9
175.9
184.8
184.5
196.0
187.5
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
15.4
3.2
0.9
3.3
11.8
1.6
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
150
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Spain: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
38.826
573.7
155.8
2.30
3888
2.27
5.24
354.5
64.2
39.343
631.5
161.8
2.60
4209
2.21
5.74
357.5
71.6
40.050
772.2
158.9
3.06
5562
2.31
7.07
366.8
76.5
43.047
905.5
158.5
3.33
6750
2.37
7.88
374.8
81.2
44.433
1065.0
147.7
3.54
7436
2.27
8.05
335.9
78.7
45.264
1242.2
134.8
3.70
8036
2.24
8.30
302.5
79.4
45.559
1410.8
121.8
3.77
8491
2.18
8.24
266.0
77.6
45.556
1556.3
111.7
3.82
8925
2.29
8.75
256.1
80.7
45.379
1674.6
102.9
3.80
9185
2.21
8.40
227.7
78.4
0.3
3.0
0.2
2.9
3.6
0.1
3.0
0.3
0.0
1.0
3.3
-0.7
1.5
2.9
-0.1
1.3
-0.9
0.0
0.3
2.9
-1.9
0.6
1.3
-0.4
0.2
-2.3
0.0
0.0
1.7
-1.7
0.1
0.8
0.1
0.2
-1.5
0.0
96.6
103.7
68.6
91.5
97.9
102.8
89.1
97.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
114.8
107.5
106.9
102.3
108.9
102.6
100.3
98.8
101.2
92.9
91.7
93.0
93.2
82.9
82.5
86.2
87.2
75.7
76.1
80.6
82.9
70.1
71.4
75.8
0.3
-0.4
3.8
0.9
0.9
0.3
0.0
-0.1
-1.5
-2.1
-1.9
-1.4
-1.2
-1.7
-1.4
-1.3
0.42
2.26
2.10
1.39
1.53
2.94
0.41
2.27
2.12
1.36
1.50
2.95
0.42
2.21
1.92
1.39
1.40
2.96
0.39
2.18
1.87
1.34
1.40
2.96
0.35
2.12
1.86
1.26
1.29
2.87
0.33
2.06
1.77
1.22
1.23
2.80
0.28
2.05
1.78
1.18
1.19
2.78
0.32
2.03
1.75
1.15
1.14
2.76
0.28
1.98
1.66
1.13
1.10
2.74
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
0.0
-0.9
0.1
-1.9
-0.4
-0.3
-0.9
-0.8
-0.3
-1.9
-0.3
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.4
-0.8
-0.1
60718
7579
14974
12725
2235
14
0
38166
5017
11352
19801
6518
495
0
0
80297
7579
22714
12725
9937
52
0
50004
7578
11485
32257
5375
887
0
0
91569
7434
30615
13817
16363
435
0
53520
7906
11277
35544
5589
1109
0
0
98732
6986
40396
13820
25712
864
0
51350
8052
10570
34467
5216
1097
0
0
109134
6986
49344
13822
33692
1830
0
52803
10456
11342
33883
3925
3653
0
0
112098
4107
52645
13822
35695
3128
0
55346
11436
15425
32314
3248
4360
0
0
117458
5600
56189
13822
38509
3858
0
55669
11482
16378
31804
2504
4982
0
0
4.2
-0.2
7.4
0.8
22.0
41.5
1.8
-0.6
4.9
0.0
7.5
15.4
0.7
-2.2
1.3
0.0
1.3
7.7
3.4
4.7
-0.1
6.0
-1.5
8.4
-0.1
2.8
0.1
-0.5
-3.5
12.7
0.5
0.9
3.7
-0.6
-4.4
3.2
40.0
39.6
39.8
40.8
39.1
39.6
38.7
41.1
7.4
44.8
27.9
16.9
46.7
13.5
35.7
19.8
15.9
46.7
12.0
41.7
18.5
23.3
47.5
11.3
42.4
16.0
26.4
49.7
14.6
48.8
15.0
33.8
50.4
15.2
43.8
8.4
35.4
53.5
14.7
48.3
11.6
36.7
8.2
0.2
8.2
0.8
10.5
4.5
12.7
7.3
15.6
8.5
16.8
9.3
18.5
10.0
372.3
39.6
258.4
20.8
51.4
2.0
461.8
50.3
310.7
25.4
73.6
1.9
535.3
54.6
369.2
27.2
82.2
2.1
617.2
56.9
427.8
29.2
100.9
2.3
700.1
59.4
481.4
32.2
124.7
2.4
772.5
62.1
523.2
35.9
148.9
2.4
830.0
64.4
552.2
41.3
169.7
2.4
867.9
66.4
568.0
46.7
184.4
2.4
2.9
1.3
3.3
1.4
3.2
1.8
2.3
0.9
2.0
2.1
4.0
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.8
2.7
2.2
0.0

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
276.7
33.4
182.0
19.9
39.5
2.1
5.3
4.2
5.5
2.5
6.4
-0.7
7127
9462
11532
12435
13890
15466
16957
18220
19126
4.9
1.9
2.0
1.2

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
128.0
83.8
11.2
33.0
150.5
101.6
11.0
38.0
191.3
148.7
11.6
31.0
276.4
233.2
11.1
32.0
320.0
272.7
12.4
34.9
358.0
305.0
13.9
39.1
391.5
333.3
15.3
42.9
414.0
353.6
16.2
44.2
421.0
359.8
16.6
44.6
4.1
5.9
0.4
-0.6
5.3
6.3
0.6
1.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.4

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
223
238
248
305
300
288
278
266
251
1.1
1.9
-0.8
-1.0
22326
224
7830
9634
528
2456
1655
26069
221
10598
9647
626
3105
1871
32858
275
14286
11587
847
4486
1378
39428
284
16266
14854
1166
5323
1534
44791
280
17858
17348
1210
6429
1667
49157
278
18934
19247
1287
7599
1810
51750
281
19383
20364
1307
8485
1930
53390
281
19579
20805
1267
9523
1936
53980
286
19549
20627
939
10672
1908
3.9
2.1
6.2
1.9
4.8
6.2
-1.8
3.1
0.2
2.3
4.1
3.6
3.7
1.9
1.5
0.0
0.8
1.6
0.8
2.8
1.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
-3.3
2.3
-0.1
40.0
87.8
39.0
76.6
42.4
69.3
42.1
61.1
40.9
61.0
39.3
60.5
37.3
58.6
36.2
56.3
36.0
54.1
0.6
-2.3
-0.4
-1.3
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
151
APPENDIX 2
Sweden: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
29728
216
3
0
17764
11745
6234
5507
1
3
0
31514
321
4
0
18040
13149
5856
7279
9
5
0
30077
231
0
0
14781
15065
6757
8264
39
5
0
34378
302
0
0
18670
15406
6260
9059
80
6
0
36076
306
0
0
19475
16295
6226
9691
356
21
0
36696
306
0
0
19476
16914
6253
10203
423
35
0
37316
270
0
0
19477
17568
6279
10820
425
44
0
38092
246
0
0
19479
18367
6279
11593
446
50
0
38467
145
0
0
19479
18843
6279
12002
506
56
0
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
17923
2329
15169
16989
-1820
577
-152
19281
2657
16014
17815
-1801
755
-145
19172
2340
15654
20372
-4718
776
402
19867
2462
17198
19825
-2626
843
-636
21489
3029
18006
20649
-2643
1382
-928
22941
5065
17195
20112
-2916
2144
-1463
23246
5177
16714
19770
-3056
2767
-1411
23200
4959
16747
19823
-3076
2817
-1324

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
47166
2677
14555
577
17764
-152
11745
50446
2893
15754
755
18040
-145
13149
47849
2442
14382
776
14781
402
15065
51555
2626
14646
843
18670
-636
15406
55528
3335
15969
1382
19475
-928
16295
57527
5371
15085
2144
19476
-1463
16914
58377
5447
14529
2767
19477
-1411
17568
5.7
30.9
1.2
37.7
24.9
5.7
31.2
1.5
35.8
26.1
5.1
30.1
1.6
30.9
31.5
5.1
28.4
1.6
36.2
29.9
6.0
28.8
2.5
35.1
29.3
9.3
26.2
3.7
33.9
29.4
145958
68173
72496
5289
148264
69922
68189
10153
145524
57306
79027
9191
158341
72364
73731
12246
172992
75517
76542
20933
1491
558
253
253
427
0
0
3245
705
737
406
1398
0
0
3239
467
276
414
2083
0
0
4465
494
316
490
3166
0
0
20579
18041
0
1123
1415
23463
19475
0
2373
1615
25294
21618
0
1973
1704
1758
1629
Non-Energy Uses
1769
1772
30514
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Refineries
District heating
Others
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
0.1
0.7
1.8
2.9
0.3
-1.2
0.3
-6.0
-1.8
2.5
0.8
4.1
54.2
5.3
2.8
0.8
-0.8
1.6
24.7
14.9
0.0
0.8
0.1
1.1
1.8
7.5
1.2
0.0
0.7
0.0
1.0
1.8
2.4
-0.1
22886
4776
16615
19693
-3078
2853
-1358
0.7
0.0
0.3
1.8
1.1
2.6
1.4
0.1
0.8
5.5
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
3.0
5.9
7.2
0.3
59023
5206
14478
2817
19479
-1324
18367
59009
4921
14271
2853
19479
-1358
18843
0.1
-0.9
-0.1
3.0
-1.8
1.5
3.2
1.1
5.9
2.8
0.5
5.0
-0.9
7.2
0.0
0.1
-1.0
-0.2
0.3
0.0
2.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
9.3
24.9
4.7
33.4
30.1
8.8
24.5
4.8
33.0
31.1
8.3
24.2
4.8
33.0
31.9
185921
75881
77626
32414
188746
75886
77964
34896
190416
75891
78206
36319
191585
75893
78909
36783
0.0
-1.7
0.9
5.7
1.7
2.8
-0.3
8.6
0.9
0.0
0.2
5.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
5304
724
172
162
4247
0
0
6291
1000
46
400
4844
0
0
6195
646
14
477
5057
0
0
5786
507
1
553
4724
0
0
5512
166
1
596
4749
0
0
8.1
-1.8
0.9
5.0
17.2
5.1
4.5
-4.6
-8.9
7.4
1.6
-1.1
-22.3
11.4
1.8
-1.2
-12.7
-25.6
2.2
-0.6
24304
20537
210
1722
1835
24610
20627
422
1648
1913
24419
20101
631
1749
1938
24322
19765
794
1763
2000
24379
19821
928
1705
1926
24224
19692
1053
1664
1815
2.1
1.8
-0.3
-0.5
5.8
1.9
-1.8
1.2
-0.1
-0.4
6.5
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.0
2.9
-0.6
-1.0
1532
1424
1555
1661
1680
1743
1735
-1.4
0.1
0.8
0.3
1771
2344
2518
2550
2570
2586
2602
0.0
3.6
0.2
0.1
32602
33302
33145
35036
37032
38260
39533
39938
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.4
11857
8574
3283
6840
4555
7263
11527
8572
2955
8032
5378
7666
12047
9161
2886
7546
5581
8128
12042
9204
2838
7882
4577
8643
12992
9767
3225
8122
4835
9087
14260
10688
3572
8270
4974
9527
14931
11143
3788
8308
5090
9931
15674
11725
3949
8381
5186
10293
15855
11796
4059
8374
5249
10460
0.2
0.7
-1.3
1.0
2.1
1.1
0.8
0.6
1.1
0.7
-1.4
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.6
0.2
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.5
1231
12004
587
10348
1706
4639
1192
12567
611
10711
3540
3981
1141
12341
673
11068
3550
4528
1345
11087
746
11382
4174
4410
1594
11676
1687
12148
3868
4063
2846
10968
2248
12640
3981
4349
3176
11134
2406
12913
4013
4618
3061
11354
2203
13076
4018
5821
3167
11380
2102
13135
3977
6176
-0.8
0.3
1.4
0.7
7.6
-0.2
3.4
-0.6
9.6
0.9
0.9
-1.1
7.1
-0.5
3.6
0.6
0.4
1.3
0.0
0.2
-1.3
0.2
-0.1
3.0
50.5
6.3
1.5
11.6
4.8
5.6
20.7
54.0
7.9
1.8
12.5
4.6
5.4
21.8
50.5
5.1
1.9
11.0
3.7
5.6
23.2
48.5
5.5
2.3
12.2
1.4
3.1
24.0
53.6
4.9
2.3
16.5
1.7
3.3
24.9
61.1
8.2
2.6
19.7
1.7
3.2
25.7
61.5
6.7
2.2
21.0
1.8
3.3
26.5
60.9
6.7
2.1
19.4
2.0
3.3
27.3
59.6
5.4
2.0
19.2
2.1
3.4
27.5
0.0
-2.0
2.3
-0.5
-2.6
0.0
1.1
0.6
-0.4
1.7
4.1
-7.7
-5.2
0.7
1.4
3.1
-0.3
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.6
-0.3
-2.0
-1.1
-0.9
1.9
0.3
0.4
100.0
107.0
100.2
96.2
106.3
121.2
121.8
120.7
118.2
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
Source: PRIMES
152
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
Sweden: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
8.527
208.1
226.6
5.53
17117
1.07
5.92
242.4
37.5
8.816
218.5
230.9
5.72
16817
1.07
6.12
247.2
37.5
8.861
256.1
186.8
5.40
16422
1.06
5.70
197.3
39.0
9.011
287.7
179.2
5.72
17571
0.94
5.39
168.7
37.2
9.192
336.0
165.3
6.04
18819
0.97
5.83
159.6
37.3
9.373
378.5
152.0
6.14
19836
1.06
6.52
161.5
38.5
9.575
421.2
138.6
6.10
19711
1.05
6.42
145.9
38.4
9.769
464.1
127.2
6.04
19493
1.03
6.23
131.2
37.9
9.911
502.5
117.4
5.95
19330
1.01
6.02
118.7
37.3
0.4
2.1
-1.9
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
-2.0
0.0
0.4
2.8
-1.2
1.1
1.4
-0.9
0.2
-2.1
0.0
0.4
2.3
-1.7
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.0
-0.9
0.0
0.3
1.8
-1.6
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-2.0
0.0
177.2
106.8
94.9
110.0
136.0
124.4
109.2
110.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
82.4
96.2
75.3
94.7
73.8
87.1
68.2
85.2
70.6
80.0
62.3
79.3
65.7
73.2
57.2
74.3
62.5
67.7
52.6
69.9
58.5
62.8
48.9
65.6
-5.6
-0.7
0.5
-0.9
-3.0
-1.4
-3.8
-1.6
-1.2
-1.7
-1.7
-1.4
-1.2
-1.5
-1.6
-1.2
0.04
1.40
0.97
0.70
1.23
2.85
0.04
1.36
1.08
0.57
1.00
2.85
0.03
1.31
0.91
0.49
1.00
2.85
0.03
1.23
1.01
0.18
0.68
2.77
0.02
1.32
1.27
0.20
0.67
2.75
0.04
1.36
1.38
0.21
0.64
2.70
0.03
1.37
1.41
0.21
0.64
2.67
0.03
1.32
1.24
0.24
0.65
2.65
0.02
1.31
1.21
0.25
0.64
2.63
-3.1
-0.7
-0.6
-3.5
-2.0
0.0
-1.9
0.1
3.4
-8.4
-3.8
-0.4
2.3
0.4
1.0
0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-2.1
-0.5
-1.5
1.8
-0.1
-0.2
32460
9584
15856
15625
231
0
0
7021
3791
847
514
4271
1389
0
0
33376
9630
16148
15651
493
4
0
7598
4762
868
522
4366
1842
0
0
35604
9044
17273
15651
1612
10
0
9286
3704
756
942
4135
3453
0
0
36244
9446
17544
15651
1872
22
0
9254
5068
724
1298
3022
4210
0
0
37015
9449
17563
15651
1881
32
0
10003
5434
666
2996
1586
4755
0
0
38943
9449
17582
15576
1961
45
0
11912
5887
620
4587
1596
5108
0
0
40152
9449
17821
15576
2184
61
0
12883
5897
262
5263
1919
5440
0
0
0.9
-0.6
0.9
0.0
21.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.6
11.9
0.8
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.5
6.7
2.8
-0.2
-1.1
6.2
-0.3
9.5
0.7
3.9
-1.3
12.3
-9.1
3.3
2.6
0.8
-8.9
5.8
1.9
1.4
49.9
52.8
53.9
56.7
56.3
53.8
52.5
24.4
5.9
96.8
39.4
57.4
23.6
7.5
97.7
45.7
52.0
33.9
9.0
96.7
43.7
53.0
44.3
13.4
95.8
40.8
55.0
48.4
15.0
96.5
40.2
56.3
54.0
16.2
96.7
39.9
56.9
57.4
17.0
97.4
39.6
57.8
42.3
0.0
42.4
2.8
39.8
4.1
39.2
6.0
39.8
7.3
40.9
8.4
42.0
9.6
1.5
-0.4
1.5
1.7
3.3
0.1
1.5
0.6
1.3
2.0
3.0
0.4
1.2
0.7
1.1
1.2
2.1
0.4

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
120.6
8.0
87.6
8.6
8.1
8.3
123.8
8.5
88.1
8.8
10.8
7.7
134.0
9.5
93.3
10.2
13.8
7.2
142.2
9.0
99.4
11.0
15.6
7.2
156.0
9.1
108.4
12.1
19.1
7.3
168.7
9.3
115.9
13.6
22.4
7.4
181.0
9.7
123.3
14.7
25.7
7.6
193.1
10.1
130.9
15.5
28.9
7.7
203.9
10.4
137.2
16.5
31.8
7.9
14140
14044
15127
15783
16966
17997
18905
19765
20568
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
53.9
26.5
19.1
8.3
58.9
31.6
19.4
7.9
62.0
35.6
19.5
6.9
67.3
38.6
21.7
7.0
75.5
43.6
24.6
7.3
82.7
47.2
27.7
7.8
89.5
51.1
30.1
8.4
96.2
55.3
32.1
8.8
102.0
59.0
34.0
9.0
1.4
3.0
0.2
-1.8
2.0
2.0
2.4
0.6
1.7
1.6
2.0
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.2
0.7

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
1.1
1.7
0.6
1.7
5.4
-1.3
259
269
242
234
225
218
213
207
203
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
7263
230
4004
1872
252
760
143
7666
275
4099
2066
273
849
103
8128
189
4086
2471
299
928
154
8643
156
4472
2695
332
846
141
9087
146
4512
2965
366
954
144
9527
145
4633
3120
388
1092
148
9931
149
4736
3272
391
1231
153
10293
152
4746
3464
385
1389
156
10460
151
4699
3535
389
1529
157
1.1
-2.0
0.2
2.8
1.7
2.0
0.8
1.1
-2.6
1.0
1.8
2.0
0.3
-0.7
0.9
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.7
2.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.0
2.2
0.3

42.9
38.8
43.4
39.0
40.2
44.2
39.7
44.6
37.1
43.8
35.8
42.1
34.8
40.7
33.5
39.8
32.2
38.2
-0.6
1.3
-0.8
-0.1
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
153
APPENDIX 2
United Kingdom: Baseline scenario

ktoe

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Primary Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal
205508
54125
92813
40925
16574
1070
436
627
1
5
1
249865
30516
132390
63715
21249
1996
416
1539
34
6
1
268722
18577
128014
97554
21942
2635
437
2104
81
11
1
202300
12172
86203
78823
21054
4048
427
3340
250
30
1
168638
10500
70000
63000
18742
6396
417
4816
1003
159
1
108066
9000
45000
30000
15918
8148
436
5974
1360
377
1
75439
8000
25000
24000
7517
10922
452
7352
2481
636
2
68290
7000
20000
18000
9903
13387
485
8586
3528
785
2
70757
6000
18000
15000
16255
15501
523
9685
4359
933
3
Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
5932
9122
-10396
-4537
-5858
6178
1027
-36021
10493
-48554
-36357
-12196
637
1403
-39030
14577
-45515
-39025
-6490
-9311
1219
32641
27467
-2171
4856
-7027
5973
715
61330
32253
16498
21747
-5249
10783
849
125828
33846
43753
49029
-5275
46128
925
152748
31337
65237
70525
-5288
53897
832
160884
31963
71556
76853
-5297
54975
702
159517
27533
74842
80146
-5304
54820
417

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
211082
64305
80903
47203
16574
1027
1070
218011
45866
82378
65119
21249
1403
1996
231368
36816
81357
87399
21942
1219
2635
232259
38186
82701
84898
21054
715
4704
227928
42753
84458
73783
18742
849
7343
231814
42846
86674
76128
15918
925
9323
226072
39337
88123
77897
7517
832
12367
227036
38963
89418
72975
9903
702
15075
228131
33533
90700
69820
16255
417
17405
30.5
38.3
22.4
7.9
0.5
21.0
37.8
29.9
9.7
0.9
15.9
35.2
37.8
9.5
1.1
16.4
35.6
36.6
9.1
2.0
18.8
37.1
32.4
8.2
3.2
18.5
37.4
32.8
6.9
4.0
17.4
39.0
34.5
3.3
5.5
17.2
39.4
32.1
4.4
6.6
14.7
39.8
30.6
7.1
7.6
316937
65735
5083
246119
332435
88948
5228
238259
374308
85048
6033
283227
397522
81603
7876
308044
414854
72657
16536
325661
431516
61709
20928
348878
451496
29140
35427
386929
469320
40603
49039
379678

Solids
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
56319
47267
7172
1668
212
0
0
49920
33844
3403
12054
620
0
0
55481
27232
806
26033
1410
0
0
61996
30920
815
26807
3455
0
0
61759
35753
0
22910
3096
0
0
65239
36122
0
25856
3261
0
0
64926
32877
1
28094
3954
0
0

Refineries
District heating
Others
99146
89882
0
0
9263
102334
94255
0
0
8079
100335
89299
0
3354
7682
94812
87320
80
1976
5436
97199
90065
1433
1035
4665
101192
93311
2583
896
4402
12836
14401
15039
15383
13559
Non-Energy Uses
11173
12550
11152
11510
11828
136947
142429
151665
151580
34962
19483
15479
37939
18596
45451
35132
19965
15167
39567
20863
46867
35909
19215
16694
43072
20359
52324
12266
58770
41893
23597
0
421
8891
60197
47140
25274
0
926

Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Transport
566.9
214.2
27.9
81.8
77.8
32.9
132.4
100.0
Annual % Change

Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro & wind
Final Energy Demand

by sector
Industry
Residential
Transport
2.7
-10.1
3.3
9.1
2.8
9.4
0.0
12.9
59.3
8.1
0.0
-4.6
-5.5
-5.9
-4.3
-1.6
9.3
-0.5
8.6
28.5
30.4
4.4
-7.7
-2.7
-9.8
-9.2
-8.7
5.5
0.8
4.3
9.5
14.8
4.1
-0.6
-2.8
-3.2
-4.6
8.0
3.6
1.5
2.8
5.8
3.9
3.3
4.8
8.3
9.6
-0.3
14.7
12.5
0.4
-1.3
1.4
1.3
1.7
-3.6
17.5
-0.2
0.2
-6.7
0.9
-5.4
0.1
6.4
2.8
1.7
9.4
-0.1
1.5
0.4
-1.7
-1.6
-3.6
10.8
-0.1
-0.8
0.4
0.5
-8.7
-0.2
5.4
0.1
-1.6
0.3
-1.1
8.0
-6.7
3.5
479224
72535
60370
346319
1.7
2.6
1.7
1.4
1.0
-1.6
10.6
1.4
0.8
-8.7
7.9
1.7
0.6
9.5
5.5
-1.1
61842
33262
17
23798
4764
0
0
54797
28334
0
20856
5607
0
0
-0.1
-5.4
-19.6
31.6
20.9
1.1
2.8
0.5
-0.8
-1.3
8.2
2.1
2.5
-1.7
-1.5
-8.3
-2.9
3.6
104028
95300
3842
790
4096
105685
96893
4532
703
3558
107309
98324
5084
635
3266
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
-1.9
-11.1
-4.9
0.7
0.6
10.4
-2.7
-1.3
0.3
0.3
2.8
-2.2
-2.2
13430
13600
13375
12971
1.6
-1.0
0.0
-0.5
12188
12599
13009
13362
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
151639
155634
158435
160377
162158
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.2
33889
16289
17600
43284
19170
55236
33935
16390
17544
41094
18632
57979
35146
16840
18307
40735
18991
60762
35899
16998
18901
40321
19232
62983
36346
16828
19518
39846
19369
64816
36677
16672
20005
39562
19502
66417
0.3
-0.1
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.4
-0.6
-1.6
0.5
-0.5
-0.9
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.8
0.2
-0.2
0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.5
5683
62437
52180
28325
2439
600
4422
65731
49853
29686
1317
572
4791
68652
43730
31321
1025
2120
4621
70490
43229
32841
1154
3299
4680
71561
42544
34068
1309
4273
3806
72477
42701
35041
1470
4882
3452
73478
42755
35562
1566
5344
-7.4
0.6
2.2
1.8
3.6
-1.7
1.0
-1.8
1.0
-8.3
13.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.3
0.8
2.5
7.3
-3.0
0.3
0.0
0.4
1.8
2.3
533.4
173.6
31.9
78.8
77.3
35.2
136.5
546.0
181.2
33.1
70.5
81.9
26.7
152.7
559.7
193.8
34.6
65.5
79.7
24.3
161.8
554.7
197.8
29.3
65.7
73.2
21.8
166.9
566.3
205.7
29.4
66.6
70.5
21.6
172.5
559.9
197.9
29.2
67.2
68.2
21.3
176.1
549.8
189.7
27.9
65.3
66.1
21.0
179.9
523.9
163.2
27.0
64.8
64.9
20.9
183.2
-0.4
-1.7
1.7
-1.5
0.5
-2.1
1.4
0.2
0.9
-1.2
-0.7
-1.1
-2.0
0.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-0.2
0.5
-0.7
-1.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
0.4
94.1
96.3
98.7
97.8
99.9
98.8
97.0
92.4
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Other
Source: PRIMES
154
Update 2007
APPENDIX 2

1990
1995
United Kingdom: Baseline scenario

2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Annual % Change

GDP (in 000 M05)
Import Dependency %
Industry
Residential
Transport
57.157
1249.5
168.9
3.69
5545
2.69
9.92
453.7
2.8
57.943
1356.6
160.7
3.76
5737
2.45
9.20
393.2
-16.3
58.785
1587.4
145.8
3.94
6367
2.36
9.29
344.0
-16.7
60.060
1792.0
129.6
3.87
6619
2.41
9.32
312.3
13.9
61.078
2033.9
112.1
3.73
6792
2.43
9.08
272.7
26.7
61.934
2288.1
101.3
3.74
6967
2.44
9.14
247.5
53.8
62.930
2560.2
88.3
3.59
7175
2.48
8.90
218.7
66.9
63.792
2827.6
80.3
3.56
7357
2.42
8.62
194.4
70.2
64.388
3065.4
74.4
3.54
7443
2.30
8.14
170.9
69.3
0.3
2.4
-1.5
0.6
1.4
-1.3
-0.7
-2.7
0.0
0.4
2.5
-2.6
-0.5
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-2.3
0.0
0.3
2.3
-2.4
-0.4
0.5
0.2
-0.2
-2.2
0.0
0.2
1.8
-1.7
-0.1
0.4
-0.8
-0.9
-2.4
0.0
106.1
114.9
125.2
110.3
104.6
112.1
126.7
104.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
97.3
87.5
79.0
93.5
94.0
73.6
66.0
86.5
89.5
65.1
58.8
80.6
84.5
57.9
52.5
74.6
79.4
52.0
47.4
69.5
75.7
47.8
43.6
65.7
-0.6
-1.4
-2.2
-1.0
-0.6
-3.0
-4.1
-1.4
-1.1
-2.4
-2.3
-1.5
-1.1
-1.9
-1.8
-1.3
0.68
2.37
2.34
2.05
1.77
2.91
0.52
2.30
2.24
1.95
1.69
2.91
0.45
2.19
1.96
1.90
1.31
2.92
0.47
2.19
1.93
1.84
1.27
2.93
0.46
2.16
1.94
1.78
1.17
2.88
0.46
2.13
1.89
1.73
1.14
2.84
0.42
2.10
1.87
1.69
1.11
2.80
0.39
2.07
1.80
1.66
1.08
2.78
0.33
2.06
1.77
1.64
1.07
2.76
-4.0
-0.8
-1.7
-0.7
-3.0
0.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.7
-1.1
-0.1
-0.9
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.3
-2.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
84356
13038
1758
1350
406
2
0
69560
6116
30684
27319
10540
1017
0
0
90824
11837
3009
1437
1562
11
0
75978
8041
30627
33944
9879
1528
0
0
94919
10723
5651
1457
4161
32
0
78545
6800
28669
38268
9357
2251
0
0
94798
9265
7129
1475
5511
66
77
78405
8403
23771
42681
9164
2788
0
0
96175
4412
12495
1489
10257
105
645
79268
9672
20764
46189
7715
4601
0
0
103293
5596
17400
1500
14553
187
1160
80298
11860
21727
48331
5449
4791
0
0
108797
8662
21643
1514
18064
313
1752
78491
12936
20804
48723
4158
4807
0
0
1.2
-1.9
12.4
0.8
26.2
32.8
0.1
-8.5
8.3
0.2
9.4
12.5
1.2
1.1
-0.7
3.4
-1.2
8.3
0.1
3.6
-3.2
1.9
-1.9
7.4
1.2
7.0
5.6
0.2
5.8
11.6
10.5
-0.1
3.0
0.0
0.5
-6.0
0.4
48.4
47.7
47.9
50.1
51.3
49.4
48.0
43.9
9.0
25.6
22.7
2.9
42.7
8.5
25.9
20.5
5.3
45.3
10.3
24.7
17.5
7.2
46.0
12.5
22.5
14.3
8.2
51.3
14.1
18.6
6.5
12.2
52.8
15.1
23.8
8.7
15.2
54.4
15.7
33.2
15.1
18.0
1.0
0.0
1.6
0.2
3.3
2.6
4.4
4.6
6.2
6.8
7.9
8.1
9.0
9.0
1.5
0.7
1.3
1.9
3.4
0.0
1.3
0.5
1.0
1.8
2.6
0.2
1.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.5
0.2

Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Wind
Solar
Thermal power
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat
- nuclear
Transport sector
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
734.6
46.2
591.1
39.9
49.3
8.1
778.5
44.3
622.0
37.1
66.8
8.4
839.2
47.0
644.9
46.7
94.0
6.6
901.9
48.8
684.7
51.8
110.0
6.5
976.0
50.3
730.6
56.6
131.9
6.5
1042.6
51.6
770.1
62.0
152.3
6.6
1108.1
53.1
809.7
67.6
171.1
6.7
1169.7
54.3
850.3
72.2
186.0
6.7
1221.7
55.2
884.3
77.2
198.1
6.8
12853
13435
14275
15016
15979
16834
17608
18336
18974
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.7

Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
217.5
145.7
16.0
55.8
227.9
161.5
13.3
53.1
243.7
165.6
18.1
60.0
250.8
167.5
22.1
61.2
261.8
175.4
24.2
62.1
273.9
185.7
25.7
62.5
284.7
195.0
27.0
62.8
292.9
202.1
27.8
63.0
297.4
205.9
28.3
63.1
1.1
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
3.0
0.4
0.8
1.1
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.1

Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
1.3
0.2
0.9
1.6
6.7
-2.1
174
168
154
140
129
120
111
104
97
-1.2
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
45451
514
25438
10387
1063
6779
1269
46867
493
25836
10366
1233
7822
1117
52324
518
27031
11277
1464
11115
920
55236
490
25783
13316
1532
12847
1269
57979
477
26035
13584
1587
15014
1282
60762
482
26628
14260
1429
16680
1282
62983
488
26936
14730
1269
18297
1264
64816
497
27045
15074
1083
19873
1244
66417
498
27644
14912
804
21332
1227
1.4
0.1
0.6
0.8
3.2
5.1
-3.2
1.0
-0.8
-0.4
1.9
0.8
3.1
3.4
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.8
-2.2
2.0
-0.1
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.1
-4.5
1.5
-0.3
45.8
54.4
45.1
51.7
47.4
51.5
44.6
59.8
43.8
58.3
42.9
58.4
42.1
57.5
41.3
56.4
41.2
54.0
0.3
-0.5
-0.8
1.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
Source: PRIMES
Update 2007
155
APPENDIX 2
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication EU Energy and Transport
in Figures of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes.
Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks.
Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy
and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations
GIC: Gross Inland Consumption
CHP: combined heat and power
Geographical regions
EU27: EU27 Member States
EU15: EU15 Member States (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)
NM12: New Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia)
Units
toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
Mtoe: million toe
GW: Gigawatt or 109 watt
kWh: kilowatt-hour or 103 watt-hour
MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hour
TWh: Terawatt-hour or 1012 watt-hour
t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes
Mt: Million metric tonnes
km: kilometre
pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre)
tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre)
Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre
Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
156
Update 2007

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EUROPEAN ENERGY AND TRANSPORT

TRENDS TO 2030 UPDATE 2007

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EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS

ACEA, JAMA, KAMA

Automobile Manufacturers Associations

Commonwealth of Independent States

Billion of cubic meters

Barrel of oil equivalent

Directorate General for Economic and Financial

Giga-barrels, or 109 barrels

Directorate General for Energy and Transport

Million barrels per day

Emission Trading Scheme

15 "old" Member States of European Union

27 Member States of European Union

Million metric tonnes

Statistical Office of the European Communities

International Energy Agency

Mega Watt, or 106 watt

Integrated Pollution Prevention Control

Mega Watt Hours, or 106 watt hours

12 New Member States of European Union

Giga Watt, or 10 watt

Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Passenger-Kilometre (one passenger

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes

Tonne-Kilometre (one tonne of freight

Clean Development Mechanism - Joint

Tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes

Carbon capture and storage

Terra Watt-hour, or 1012 watt hours

Combined heat and power

Compressed Natural Gas

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Inland Consumption

Liquefied Natural Gas

Renewable Energy Sources

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Research and Development

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030

EU-27 ENERGY BASELINE SCENARIO TO 2030

TABLE 1: BASELINE PRICES OF FOSSIL FUELS

The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an

All numbers included in this report, except otherwise stated,