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World Development Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 199217, 2005 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0305-750X/$ - see front matter

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.07.009

Can Habitat Protection Lead to Improvements in Human Well-Being? Evidence from Marine Protected Areas in the Philippines
HEIDI GJERTSEN * Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-Fisheries, La Jolla, CA, USA
Summary. The hypothesis that sustainable resource management and biodiversity conservation can result in material benets to participating communities has existed under dierent guises in the concepts of sustainable development, integrated conservation and development projects, sustainable use, and community-based resource management. What these approaches have in common is the belief that winwin situations between the environment and human development are possible under particular institutional arrangements. Disentangling the factors that contribute to eective conservation and improved human welfare is dicult, but necessary for understanding when these winwin scenarios are likely to emerge. This paper analyzes data on 40 community-based marine protected areas in the Philippines, to determine the correlates of winwin versus loselose or tradeo outcomes, measured in terms of childrens nutritional status and coral reef health. 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Key words Asia, biodiversity, conservation, coral reefs, Philippines, poverty

1. INTRODUCTION The literature on the links between poverty and the environment advances multiple conceptualizations of this relationship. A downward spiral has been postulated, such that poverty causes environmental degradation and the degradation in turn fuels further poverty (Cleaver & Schreiber, 1994). Some have argued that the poor are not responsible, that it is largely the demands of the rich that cause the degradation (Boyce, 1994). Some claim that tradeos between poverty alleviation and environmental improvements are inevitable, while others suggest that winwin situations are possible under particular conditions (Lee & Barrett, 2001). These questions are of considerable importance to policy. For example, are programs to alleviate poverty likely to lead to improvements or degradation of the resource base? Is it possible to invest in resource management in such a way that it also helps to alleviate poverty? Some authors have cautioned against these oversimplied views of causality and stress that one must consider the particular context at hand. For example, Heady (2000) argues that environmental improvement and poverty alleviation can be compatible if there are alternative
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* This paper is based on material in Gjertsens dissertation completed at Cornell University. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to NOAA-Fisheries. The author wishes to thank the Teresa Heinz Scholars for Environmental Research for providing eldwork funding, as well as the Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies, the Graduate School, the Southeast Asia Program, and the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. Predissertation funding was provided by the Social Science Research Councils International Predissertation Fellowship Program. Special thanks to Richard Pollnac for his generous contributions of data and advice for this project. Thank you to my research assistants, Paulette Apurado, Connie Miro, and Janet Moriles, sta at the Coastal Conservation and Education Foundation, Silliman University Marine Laboratory, and University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, and to all the individuals and communities in the Philippines who oered their assistance. The author also thanks Chris Barrett, Miguel Castrence, Jon Conrad, Neha Khanna, John McPeak, David Lee, Bill Schulze, Todd Schmit, Christian Vossler, participants of Reconciling Rural Poverty Reduction and Resource Conservation: Identifying Relationships and Remedies, International Workshop, Cornell University, May 23, 2003, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. Final revision accepted: 16 July 2004.

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livelihoods that can be pursued, if other causes of degradation can be reduced, if resources are managed such that there is less destruction but more local benet, and if resources are managed such that the costs are not borne by the poor. Scherr (2000) notes that factors such as local endowments, technologies and institutions aect whether people can mitigate against environmental degradation and avoid poverty, thereby reversing the downward spiral. Extricating the causal relationships and answering these questions is extremely dicult. In this paper we concentrate on the practical question of when can we achieve winwin situations between poverty alleviation and environmental protection. If we implement a measure in an attempt to prevent natural resource degradation, does it inevitably, never, or conditionally have a positive impact on poverty alleviation? Using which instruments, or under what conditions, can these two pursuits be compatible? We consider in this paper the conditions under which the particular resource management tool of marine protected areas can be an eective measure for both habitat protection and improved human well-being. The study considers the case of coral reef management in the Philippines. Coral reefs are among the worlds most biologically diverse and productive ecosystems and supply a vast array of goods and services. In poor coastal communities, people depend directly on reef species for most of their protein needs. Reef sheries in the Philippines provide livelihoods for more than a million small-scale shers, who contribute almost one billion US dollars to the economy (White, Vogt, & Arin, 2000). Reefs also provide crucial ecological services, such as the maintenance of biodiversity and shoreline protection. One study estimated that reefs provide humans with goods and services worth approximately $375 billion a year (Costanza et al., 1997). Unfortunately, these valuable ecosystems are threatened by a range of human activities, including shing and gleaning, diving and boating, and agriculture causing runo. One-tenth of the worlds coral reefs have already been destroyed, and one-third are seriously degraded (Chadwick, 1999). In the Philippines, home to some of the worlds most biologically diverse reefs, 85% of reefs are at high risk of degradation from human activities (Bryant, Burke, McManus, & Spalding, 1998). Less than 5% of these reefs are in excellent condition (Gomez, Alino, Yap, & Licuanan, 1994). A recent article

in Science ranked the Philippines as having the highest threats to reefs in a center of endemism (area that contains large numbers of restrictedrange species), giving it a prominent place in the top marine biodiversity hotspots (Roberts et al., 2002). At the same time that this environmental degradation is taking place in the Philippines, a large percentage of the population lacks the resources to meet its basic needs. In 2000, 34% of the population in the Philippines was living below the national poverty line (National Statistical Coordination Board, 2003), while in 2001 infant mortality was 29 per 1,000 live births (World Bank, 2003), and 30.6% of children under ve years old were malnourished (Cerdena, Lana, Molano, Milagros, & Nones, 2001). 1 With limited resources available to combat these dual problems, knowing when and how to increase the prospects of achieving winwin situations between the environment and human welfare is invaluable. A popular tool for coral reef management is the marine protected area (MPA). MPAs limit or prohibit extractive activities inside their boundaries, thereby protecting the reef habitat and its associated marine life from destructive activities. Numerous studies have shown that MPAs result in increases in the abundance and size of sh within the reserve and some studies have also documented an export of biomass outside the reserve (National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, 2001; Roberts & Polunin, 1993; Alcala, 1988). This has fueled hopes of improving dwindling sh stocks and increasing sh catches in impoverished areas through these area closures. At least 400 marine protected areas have been created in the Philippines alone (Pajaro, Olano, & San Juan, 1999). These range in size from less than a hectare to hundreds of thousands of hectares, and they vary considerably in terms of design and implementation and enforcement. While MPAs can be an eective tool for habitat protection and sheries management, it is estimated that only 10% of MPAs in the Philippines are properly managed and protected (Alcala, 2001). Other studies estimate that 8090% of MPAs worldwide have not succeeded in meeting their management objectives (McClanahan, 1999; Kelleher, Bleakley, & Wells, 1995). Marine protected areas fail for a variety of reasons. Many lack enforcement or community support, due to lack of political will, insucient funding and training, and lack of alternative shing grounds or opportu-

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nities for shermen. Others are placed in poor locations that do not consider migration or larval recruitment patterns or the eects of damaging anthropogenic processes such as land-based activities that may cause siltation. Even when MPAs are successful on a biological level, there has been little study of their eects on the communities that implement and manage them. We address the question of whether MPAs can meet both conservation and development objectives simultaneously through analysis of outcomes of ecosystem health (coral reefs) and human well-being (child nutritional status) in villages containing MPAs in the Philippines. The paper begins with hypothesized relationships between marine protected areas, ecosystem health, and human well-being in section 2. A description of the study area and the indicators of human well-being and ecosystem health used in our analysis, as well as MPA management data and other village-level data are presented in section 3. This is followed in section 4 by econometric analysis of the correlates of coral reef health and child nutritional status outcomes. We present conclusions in section 5.

2. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MARINE PROTECTED AREAS, CORAL REEF HEALTH, AND HUMAN WELL-BEING There are several ways in which marine protected areas, coral reef health, and human welfare in shing communities might be linked. One of the basic premises of MPAs is that by protecting the coral reef from human intrusion and extraction, coral cover and sh abundance inside the MPA can be maintained or increased, which leads to an increase in sh abundance outside the MPA and thus higher catches for shermen. In this manner, MPAs are used both for habitat protection and as a shery management tool. Larger catches can in turn result in increased sh consumption in shing families and higher incomes from sh that are sold. Assuming that increases in income will be at least partially allocated to increased quantity or quality of food for children, both of these eects should improve child nutritional status. In addition, MPA-related activities may have other eects on household income and community development (described below).

We consider improvement in coral reef health inside the MPA and improvements in childrens nutritional status to be indicators of MPA success (while controlling for non-MPA factors). We cannot evaluate the eects of MPAs on household incomes directly, as it was not possible to collect income data. Furthermore, catch data are only available as reported changes in catch 200002, thus we include child weightfor-age data as additional indicators of human welfare. When households lack the resources to provide adequate nutrition for their children, there is little doubt that this reects household poverty. 2 As discussed above, child nutritional status should be improved by increases in catch and income related to the MPA. Not all MPAs result in this chain of positive outcomes once they are implemented, thus we try to establish not only whether the links are present, but also what factors increase the likelihood of success of MPAs, as dened by improvements of ecosystem conditions inside the MPA and child nutritional health. The outcomes of coral reef health and childrens nutritional status depend on both exogenous factors (e.g., biological, social, political, economic conditions) and MPA activities (e.g paying patrollers). The potential eects of MPA activities and exogenous factors on coral reef health and child nutritional status outcomes are discussed below and a simple diagram is presented in Figure 1. 3 Activities that increase the expected loss from violating MPA rules, through higher penalties or better enforcement (marked boundaries, paying patrollers, size of ne), should decrease shing inside the MPA and improve reef health. Financial inputs to the MPA (by the municipality) should support costly MPA enforcement activities, such as marking boundaries, constructing guardhouses, and providing patrol boats. The availability of other incomegenerating activities (alternative income projects, tourism, businesses) can reduce pressure on sheries, and thus is expected to have a positive eect on reef health. Larger MPAs are expected to have more benecial eects on reef health, though only if they are not too large to be managed eectively. We expect that more stable areas with access to municipality funds and assistance (close to municipality, low mayor turnover) will be more conducive to MPA success. Village population size or density tends to have ambiguous eects on communitybased resource management (Baland & Platteau, 1996). Larger populations may be more

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Number of Mayors Distance from Municipality Population Density Province Size of MPA

MPA implemented

Fish abundance and coral cover in MPA

Fish abundance and coral cover adjacent to MPA

Catch

Child nutritional status

Community Influence on Size/Location Municipal Financial/Material Inputs Initial Conditions of Fish Stocks Alt. Income Projects Proportion Business Owners Tourism Wage to Patrollers MPA Boundaries Size of Fine

Piped Water Medical Center

Figure 1. Relationships between marine protected areas, coral reef health and human well-being.

likely to degrade resources more quickly and community-based rules may be dicult to enforce. On the other hand, a minimum population size may be necessary to manage resources eectively. Early community involvement in MPAs is posited to result in greater support and thus more successful MPAs. A perception of crisis in the levels of a sh stock is also expected to lead to support for the MPA and thus greater respect for MPA rules. Childrens nutritional status depends on parents income (and sh catch) and government expenditures on health and nutritional services and infrastructure (e.g., child vaccination, sanitation, school feeding programs). Thus anything that aects income or government expenditures can have eects on child nutritional status. The availability of alternative income-generating activities should improve child nutrition by giving opportunities other than shing for earning income. Paying patrollers also oers an additional livelihood source and potentially higher household income. Smaller shing grounds and unpaid conservation activities such as patrolling and monitoring may cause households to sacrice some income in the present to perhaps obtain greater shing income in the future. Charging higher nes for violating MPA rules lowers the income of those who are caught, thus potentially lowering child nutrition.

We expect the presence of a medical center in the community to improve child nutrition through education programs, feeding centers, and by preventing and treating disease. A source of clean water in the form of a public water supply piped to homes should also reduce water-borne illnesses, a major determinant of child malnutrition. We expect that more stable areas with access to municipality funds and assistance are more likely to have higher child nutritional status. Municipal governments are bound by a nancing constraint so that inputs to conservation activities reduce the funding that is available for providing other services, such as development initiatives, unless matching revenue inows result (e.g., from central government grants or park visitor fees) or there is complementarity between investment in MPA activities and development activities. Costly activities of marine protected areas, such as providing and installing boundary markers, may compete for funding with development projects (e.g., health, education, infrastructure) that could have signicant eects in reducing child undernutrition. There may thus be a short-term tradeo in current expenditures between public health and sanitation services and conservation activities. In the longer run, however, conservation may stimulate increased sh abundance so that the short-term tradeo from restricted access and government scal re-

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source allocation may turn into a synergy with a longer-term perspective. The MPA design may thus have complex relationships with the outcomes of coral reef health and poverty. It would be of great benet if we could nd particular conservation instruments that can improve reef health without sacricing development. Some instruments may have a positive effect on one outcome and a negative eect on the other, while others may have positive or negative eects on both. 3. DATA Fieldwork for this study was conducted during MaySeptember, 2002, in 40 villages con-

taining MPAs in the Visayas region of the Philippines (see Figure 2). The villages are located in 29 dierent municipalities, in four provinces (Bohol, Leyte, Cebu, and Negros Oriental). Most of these communities are dependent on shing; on average over 50% of people in the communities are involved in shing. The MPAs were established during 198697 and they encompass a range of sizes, designs, and locations. Most of the MPAs were initiated from outside of the community, and all of them were established by municipal ordinance. The MPAs are considered communitybased, since management is by village-level management groups, usually consisting of village councilors and community representatives. All of the MPAs prohibit shing inside the core

Figure 2. Location of community-based marine protected areas surveyed (Source: Miguel Castrence).

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zone and many restrict or prohibit other activities, such as swimming and anchoring. The MPAs all contain coral reefs and most were implemented with a specic objective of protecting coral reefs. The eldwork replicated a survey of the same sites in 2000 by Dr. Richard Pollnac, of the Coastal Resources Center at University of Rhode Island, in order to obtain comparable information for another period in time and thus evaluate MPA performance in terms of changes in the ecosystem and human welfare. 4 Data were collected through snorkel surveys of the reefs, ocial records, and interviews with shermen, members of the MPA management committee, and key informants. (a) Measures of human welfare In the Philippines, village health ocers conduct a regular weighing program of preschool children between the ages of 0 and 59 months. The children are weighed on a quarterly basis and they are classied as severely underweight, moderately underweight, mildly underweight, normal, and overweight, according to weightfor-age cuto points determined by national standards (Lan a, Villavieja, & Cerdena, 2000). To make the Philippines standards more comparable to international standards developed by the National Center for Health StatisticsWorld Health Organization (NCHS WHO), we only use moderate and severely underweight percentages. 5 We obtained records on the annual average percentages of underweight children for the years 2002, 2000, and the year before the MPA was established. Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics for the variables derived from these records. While malnutrition rates are indeed high in the survey sites, there is a long-term decline in percentages of underweight children, as in the rest of the country.

(b) Measures of ecosystem health Coral reefs are complex ecosystems; information about coral cover, sh abundance, species diversity, or presence of indicator species all offer insights into reef health, but no single measure presents a complete picture of reef health. We thus make use of several of these variables in our study. We next briey describe some of the main components of coral reef ecosystems and the potential impacts of human activities on these systems. Hard corals are the reef-builders and the fastest growing hard corals may add as much as 15 cm per year, while slower growing ones have growth rates that can be less than one centimeter per year. Algae competes with coral for space on the reef, thus conditions that favor algae growth can cause a shift from a coral-dominated community to an algal one. Activities that can create these conditions include increased nutrients from sewage or agricultural runo and shing that removes herbivores. Activities that kill corals include destructive shing, coral mining, anchor damage, and reef walking. Physical damage destroys habitat for members of the ecosystem, which may lead to signicant changes in community structure. Coral mortality is also caused by activities that decrease light penetration or smother corals, such as siltation through land erosion and dredging. Fishing is an activity with very complex direct and indirect eects, as removing one species does not necessarily lead to predictable eects in the ecosystem. Fishing tends to decrease the size and abundance of the target species, though intense pressure with nonselective methods may have signicant eects on the abundance of a broad spectrum of species, which may even result in major shifts in community and trophic structure. Fish abundance can be aected immediately by shing or protection from shing. Russ

Table 1. Variables describing child anthropometric status Variable description Proportion of underweight children (059 months) in 2002 Proportion of underweight children (059 months) in 2000 Proportion of underweight children 1 year before MPA established Proportion of underweight children in 2000 proportion of underweight children in 2002 N 40 40 23 40 Mean 0.067 0.095 0.121 0.029 Standard deviation 0.067 0.075 0.054 0.083 Minimum 0 0 0.010 0.176 Maximum 0.231 0.307 0.233 0.259

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and Alcala (1996) found signicant increases of large predatory coral reef sh density in two MPAs in the Philippines almost immediately after protection from shing and signicant decreases in density in the areas when shing resumed. Coral mortality can also occur extremely quickly from human activities and while coral recovery can be slower for some species, others can recover fairly rapidly. Thus even a two-year panel can provide reasonable information on reef processes. 6 We collected data on coral reef condition inside the MPA using the systematic snorkel survey methodology from the Pollnac study (Uychiaoco et al., 2001; Pollnac, Crawford, & Gorospe, 2001). Reef data were collected by approximately the same method in the Pollnac study, thus comparable measures are also available in each of the sites for the year 2000. 7 We consider changes in live hard coral cover between the two periods. 8 Considering hard coral cover at a point in time is misleading since areas may have dierent initial conditions. For example, if two sites each have 50% coral cover at the time they are surveyed, we would conclude that the sites represent equal levels of success. But, consider that two years before one site had 25% coral cover and the other had 75%. Clearly, the second site is not performing as well as the rst. Ideally, coral cover and sh conditions would be measured repeatedly from the time the MPA was established so that a trend for the entire period could be assessed. 9 As these data are not available, however, we consider improvements over a two-year period (at least three years after the MPA has been implemented) as a measure of success. Incorporating this time-series dimension to the data permits more careful inference with respect to causality than can be achieved with standard cross-section data. In our study sites, no comparable measures of hard coral cover were collected at the time of MPA-inception, thus we can only consider changes in hard coral cover over 200002. As we discuss below, we also use other measures to assess changes in coral reef health. A common problem confronting coastal managers is a lack of baseline data or comparable data collected over some length of time. Pomeroy, Pollnac, Predo, and Katon (1996) developed a baseline-independent method to address this problem. They conducted a survey in coastal villages in the Philippines that relied on respondents perceptions of the impact of the Central Visayas Regional Project on out-

comes such as ecosystem health. A similar method was used by Muller, Bettencourt, and Gillett (2000) in their assessment of marine management in the Pacic Islands. Other studies have shown perceptions data to be consistent with objective measures of ecosystem health (Stewart, Middleton, Downton, & Ely, 1984). 10 To address the lack of baseline data and to provide additional perceptions-based measures of ecosystem health we conducted interviews with shermen in the study sites and asked a series of questions rating the abundance of corals and sh inside and adjacent to the MPA in 2002, 2000, and before MPA-establishment. 11 Table 2 describes the ecosystem health variables created from the snorkel surveys and shermen interviews. (c) MPA management and contextual variables Data on the variables hypothesized to aect these outcomes were collected from a variety of sources. The municipal ordinance establishing the MPA contains information about the size and location of the MPA and the prohibitions and penalties for violations. Information about conditions in 2000 and at the time of MPA inception was obtained from the Pollnac dataset. MPA managers and local ocials were asked about the enforcement of the sanctuary rules, inputs to sanctuary management, and general village information. Table 3 describes the variables used in our analysis. The variation in outcomes and contextual and design variables oers an uncommon opportunity to try to identify how the biophysical or social context and the operational design of an MPA aect environmental performance and development.

4. DATA ANALYSIS Is protection of the coral reef habitat inside the MPA and thus improvement of ecosystem health associated with improvements in human well-being, as measured by child nutritional status? We would like to know whether such winwin outcomes exist, and if so, under what conditions they seem most likely to arise. In particular, we are interested in how alternative MPA designs might aect the tradeos or synergies between conservation and development objectives.

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WORLD DEVELOPMENT Table 2. Variables describing ecosystem health

Variable description Proportion hard coral cover from 2000 snorkel surveys Proportion hard coral cover from 2002 snorkel surveys Proportion hard coral cover in 2002 minus proportion coral cover in 2000 How has abundance of reef sh changed from 2000 to 2002 1 = decrease a lot, 4 = no change, 7 = increase a lot How is coral cover in sanctuary in 2002 compared to 2000 1 = worse, 3 = better How is abundance of sh inside sanctuary in 2002 compared to 2000 1 = worse, 3 = better How is sh catch in 2002 compared to 2000 1 = worse, 3 = better How is coral cover in sanctuary in 2002 compared to pre-MPA 1 = worse, 3 = better How is abundance of sh inside sanctuary in 2002 compared to pre-MPA 1 = worse, 3 = better How is abundance of sh inside sanctuary in 2000 compared to pre-MPA (site average of responses) 1 = worse, 3 = better

N 40 40 40 304 288 295 289 296 298 40

Mean 0.297 0.348 0.051 3.763 2.528 2.268 1.844 2.605 2.470 2.285

Standard deviation 0.183 0.153 0.147 1.934 0.765 0.884 0.837 0.743 0.841 0.671

Minimum 0.047 0.086 0.300 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Maximum 0.713 0.705 0.351 7 3 3 3 3 3 3

The marine protected areas in this study were implemented at dierent points in time during 198697. This may inuence the position of these sites along a reef recovery trajectory and the associated child nutritional status. For example, it may be that MPAs that have been in existence longer are better established and are making more signicant improvements to reef health and child nutritional status. On the other hand, it may be that these sites have already experienced large improvements and the marginal eects of the MPA are diminishing. We address this by using the changes in the sites over 200002 and including a variable for years since inception. We nd no statistically signicant eect of this variable on any of the measures of reef health or child nutritional status. This is not surprising, as sites may exhibit either of the trajectories described above. Furthermore, instantaneous shocks and specic histories (e.g., the interplay of interest groups, death of an inuential leader, etc.) are likely to have much greater eects than simply how long the MPA has been in existence. We explore which exogenous contextual variables and MPA design characteristics are associated with winwin results or with tradeos between development and environment objectives through a series of regressions to determine how changes in coral reef health and child nutritional stauts are related to these variables. We

also assess the contribution of improved corel reef health on child nutritional status. (a) Results for coral reef health Table 4 presents four dierent sets of estimation results. The rst three regress the subjective measures of changes in ecosystem health (from the shermen interviews) on the set of explanatory variables using an ordered probit estimator. Each interviewees response to questions about changes to ecosystem health is treated as a single observation, yielding a maximum sample size of 306 observations. 12 The fourth model uses change in coral cover from the eld surveys as the dependent variable. The reef health models yields a number of interesting estimation results. First, the results are quite consistent across models. We see that successful alternative income projects are strongly associated with improvement in ecosystem health in all but one of the models. It appears that providing shermen with alternative livelihood options does relieve pressure on the ecosystem. Paying higher wages to patrollers is also associated with improvement in ecosystem health in all but one model. 13 This suggests that incentives for MPA enforcement have a positive eect on reef health. The only other MPA design feature associated with improved reef conditions that is statistically sig-

HABITAT PROTECTION HUMAN WELL-BEING Table 3. Variables describing MPA management and local context Variable description N Mean 0.500 0.525 .0813 8.500 0.625 15.870 10.125 2.748 0.600 0.350 0.675 1.482 17.104 6.655 4.350 0.275 0.725

207

Standard Minimum Maximum deviation 0.506 0.506 .0899 3.494 0.424 23.394 12.191 6.642 0.496 0.483 0.474 0.413 33.024 5.791 1.834 0.452 0.452 0 0 0 5 0 2 0.5 0 0 0 0 1 0.536 0 2 0 0 1 1 40 16 1 106 70 30 1 1 1 3 133.448 30 8 1 1

Existence of successful alternative income project in 40 the village Yes = 1 (manager interviews 2000) Existence of tourism in the village Yes = 1 40 (researcher rating 2000) Proportion of villagers that own a business (key 40 informant interviews 2000) Number of years (in 2002) since MPA was established 40 (municipal ordinance) Proportion of MPA boundaries that are marked 40 (researcher observation 2000) Size of MPA (ha) (municipal ordinance and manager 40 interviews 2000) Size of ne for rst oence (00 pesos) (municipal 40 ordinance and manager interviews 2000) Monthly wage to patrollers (00 pesos) (manager 40 interviews 2002) MPA received nancial inputs from the municipality 40 Yes = 1 (manager interviews 2000) Expert lived in the village to help develop the MPA 40 Yes = 1 (manager interviews 2000) Community inuenced the size and location of the MPA 40 Yes = 1 (manager interviews 2000) Initial conditions of sh stocks in MPA 1 = poor, 3 = good 40 Village population density in 2000 (persons/ha) 40 Distance of village from municipality (km) (key informant 40 interviews 2000) Number of mayors over past 15 years (key informant 40 interviews 2000) Existence of public water supply piped to village homes 40 Yes = 1 Existence of medical clinic in the village Yes = 1 40 Province dummy = 1 if village is in Cebu 40 Province dummy = 1 if village is in Bohol 40 Province dummy = 1 if village is in Leyte 40 Age of respondent (shermen interviews 2002) 305 Household has other income-generating activities Yes = 1 306 (shermen interviews 2002)

43.712 0.709

11.823 0.459

18 0

84 1

nicant in at least one of the models is the size of the ne for violating MPA rules. It is likely that more severe penalties act as a deterrent to potential violators, but only if the probability of being caught and punished is signicant. Distance from the municipality suggests increases in reef health. The remoteness of these places may be associated with less pollution or perhaps distance leads to less interference from the municipality in MPA activities, which may be important for community-based projects. Community-based MPAs may be most successful when the municipality provides resources but otherwise stays out of management.

It may also be that these more remote areas are farther from markets and thus exploitation is less protable. The province dummy variables are signicant in the perceptions models, suggesting that there are important regional dierences, such as macroeconomic conditions or biological processes in the reefs. 14 We see that the omitted province, Negros Oriental, is associated with better ecosystem health than the other provinces. The history of marine management in Negros Oriental is somewhat unique. In the 1970s and 1980s, the area was devastated and many of the regions shermen moved elsewhere.

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WORLD DEVELOPMENT Table 4. Regressions of coral reef health (200002)

Regression model Explanatory variables

(1) (2) (3) (4) Perceived change Perceived change Perceived change Change in in abundance in abundance in coral cover in MPA coral cover in MPA of reef sh of sh in MPA Ordered probit OLS regressions 0.5980** (0.2140)a 0.0050 (0.2410) 0.0145 (0.0093) 0.1421 (0.2597) 0.0054 (0.0051) 0.0005 (0.0067) 0.0409** (0.0162) 0.0376 (0.0265) 0.0035 (0.0030) 0.0325** (0.0146) 0.0499 (0.0583) 0.9207** (0.3547) 0.8270** (0.3659) 0.6064** (0.3031) 0.0013 (0.0056) 0.0970 (0.1232) 1.2112** (0.3693) 303 0.0000 0.0692 1.0056* (0.3480) 0.0522 (0.3158) 0.0179 (0.0141) 0.1864 (0.3281) 0.0005 (0.0077) 0.0141 (0.0109) 0.0447* (0.0257) 0.0127 (0.0445) 0.0006 (0.0048) 0.0908** (0.0349) 0.0821 (0.0865) 1.7960** (0.5692) 1.5048** (0.5176) 0.8714 (0.5475) 0.0123* (0.0072) 0.1734 (0.1432) 0.2361 (0.6530) 294 0.0000 0.1880 0.7959** (0.2899) 0.2596 (0.3674) 0.0070 (0.0110) 0.1001 (0.3029) 0.0029 (0.0055) 0.0044 (0.0089) 0.0072 (0.0160) 0.0234 (0.0328) 0.0002 (0.0045) 0.0288 (0.0288) 0.1310 (0.0862) 1.1305** (0.4598) 0.6495 (0.4360) 0.4277 (0.5434) 0.0059 (0.0073) 0.0937 (0.1615) 0.9175* (0.5657) 287 0.0010 0.1108 0.0747 (0.0547) 0.0416 (0.0554) 0.0008 (0.0027) 0.0229 (0.0619) 0.0012 (0.0012) 0.0058** (0.0020) 0.0088** (0.0041) 0.0017 (0.0087) 0.0008 (0.0009) 0.0079* (0.0047) 0.0060 (0.0144) 0.0568 (0.0683) 0.0670 (0.0732) 0.0051 (0.0868) N/A N/A 0.0342 (0.0956) 40 0.0877 0.5084

Alt. income projects Tourism Proportion business owners MPA boundaries Size of MPA Size of ne Wage to patrollers Years since MPA Population density Distance to municipality Number of mayors Bohol Leyte Cebu Age of respondent Other income Constant N P-value of F-test R-squared
a *

**

Standard errors (in parentheses) for probit models adjusted for within village correlation. Signicant at 10% level. Signicant at 5% level.

Silliman University in Dumaguete City was instrumental in establishing and monitoring MPAs in the province and throughout the Philippines. A number of development agencies also established MPAs in the area. The gover-

nor of Negros Oriental at the time of establishment of many of the MPAs was also a proponent of environmental protection. Finally, the MPAs in the Negros Oriental sample are situated on the Tanon Strait, a deep area

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rich in species, which may be more resilient to ecosystem threats. These results suggest that to improve reef conditions, the best options include providing alternative income projects and attractive wages to patrollers and charging high nes for violations. Once one controls for these key design variables and context, we nd little evidence that developing tourism or marking MPA boundaries would further improve reef conditions appreciably. The magnitudes of the coecients in the ordered probit regressions are meaningless for assessing the relative impact of the MPA design variables on reef health, due to the noncontinuity of the dependent variables. We therefore compute the change in predicted probability of observing ecosystem improvement as we change the explanatory variables by one standard deviation around the mean. 15 Table 5 presents these probabilities. Successful alternative income projects generate by far the largest increase in the probability of improved ecosystem conditions, followed by distance from the municipality, paying patrollers, and the size of the ne. It would be useful to know the costs of implementing alternative income projects versus paying patrollers versus increasing the size of the ne to determine which activity can generate the largest net gains. But a clear ordering of gross conservation benets among alternative design strategies provides a signicant step forward. We also consider factors aecting performance of MPAs with regard to coral reef health by looking at changes over a longer time period, from MPA inception until 2002. The measures of change in the ecosystem rely on perceptions data only, as snorkel surveys were not conducted at the sites when the MPAs were implemented. The set of explanatory variables in these regressions are not identical to the previous regressions. Since the data were not origi-

nally intended for a panel dataset, the same variables were not collected over all years. Several of the MPA design variables that we used in the previous regressions refer to conditions in 2000 and may not represent conditions at the time of MPA-implementation (e.g., how many of the boundaries are marked, percentage of successful alternative income projects), thus we drop these potentially endogenous variables from the analysis and only consider initial MPA inputs or conditions that have remained constant since the time of MPA inception. Table 6 presents results from ordered probit regressions using local shermens perceptions of change in coral cover and sh abundance inside the MPA as dependent variables. Community participation in determining the precise size and location of the MPA and nancial or material municipal inputs both have a signicant positive eect on reef health. It thus seems that community involvement in early stages of MPA creation can lead to community buy-in and respect for the rules. It may also be that communities choose a location that is less valuable as a shing ground, thus there is less pressure for entry. Although these MPAs are considered community-based, external support seems essential. The municipality, in particular is often the source of funds for boundary markers and wages for patrollers, patrol boats, etc. These results suggest that funds for these inputs are essential to MPA success. Larger MPAs are signicantly associated with decreased sh abundance in the MPA. While large MPAs may be optimal for coral reefs on a biological level, as they increase in size it is possible that the eectiveness of community-level MPA management decreases. Poor levels of sh stocks before the MPA was implemented is associated with improvements in reef health., suggesting that people are only moved to conserve if they perceive a real crisis with respect to ecosystem conditions. Being

Table 5. Change in predicted probability of improved ecosystem conditions (200002) due to change in level of success factors (one standard deviation centered on mean) Success factors Change in success factor From Alt. income projects Size of ne Wage to patrollers Distance from municipality 0 3.9094 0 0.9815 To 1 16.0481 5.8724 9.6303 Change in probability of improvement Abundance of reef sh 0.2246 0.0024 0.1005 0.0716 Abundance of sh in MPA 0.3771 0.0647 0.1053 0.2026 Coral cover in MPA 0.2596 0.0173 0.0143 0.0544

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Explanatory variables Size of MPA Size of ne Years since MPA established Initial conditions of sh stocks in MPA Community inuenced size/location Financial/material inputs from municipality Distance to municipality Number of mayors Bohol Leyte Cebu Age of respondent Other income sources Constant N P-value of F-test R-squared
a *

Perceived change in abundance of sh in MPA 0.0070* (0.0042)a 0.0004 (0.0073) 0.0368 (0.0354) 0.9586** (0.2935) 0.5597** (0.2325) 0.4117** (0.2097) 0.0584** (0.0185) 0.2666** (0.0644) 0.5906** (0.3095) 0.8732** (0.2997) 0.1929 (0.4011) 0.0030 (0.0079) 0.2323 (0.2042) 2.6839** (0.5221) 297 0.0000 0.1591

Perceived change in coral cover in MPA 0.0076 (0.0050) 0.0120 (0.0105) 0.0135 (0.0365) 0.6162** (0.3119) 0.4414* (0.2705) 0.0943 (0.2231) 0.0359 (0.0230) 0.2431** (0.0780) 0.5433* (0.3334) 0.4901* (0.3557) 0.3717 (0.3960) 0.0068 (0.0081) 0.0051 (0.2022) 2.5784** (0.5782) 295 0.0000 0.1020

Standard errors (in parentheses) adjusted for within village correlation. Signicant at 10% level. ** Signicant at 5% level.

far from the municipality is once again associated with positive eects on reef health. Having a lower turnover in mayors also contributes positively, suggesting that stable leadership is perhaps associated with a steady ow of support and funds for MPAs. There are signicant provincial eects once again. Table 7 presents the changes in predicted probabilities of observing ecosystem improvement as we change the explanatory variables by one standard deviation around the mean. Community inuence over size and location of the MPA generates the largest increase in the probability of improved ecosystem conditions, followed lower turnover in mayors, nancial and material inputs from the munici-

pality, poor sh stock conditions, and distance from the municipality. (b) Results for child nutritional status We next consider the eects of MPAs on child nutritional status. As there are several lags in the relationship between MPA success and improvements in child nutritional status, we estimate a system of equations that accounts for these lags. As illustrated in Figure 1, a successful MPA should rst show improvements inside the MPA, then there should be a lag before sh abundance increases in areas adjacent to the MPA and thus before sh catches can increase. Increased catch should produce

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Table 7. Change in predicted probability of improved ecosystem conditions (pre-MPA-2002) due to change in level of success factors (one standard deviation centered on mean) Success factors Change in success factor From Initial conditions of sh stocks Community inuenced size/location Financial/material inputs from municipality Distance from municipality Number of mayors 1.2759 0 0 0.9815 3 To 1.6846 1 1 9.6303 5 Change in probability of improvement Abundance of sh in MPA 0.1271 0.1921 0.1366 0.1098 0.1566 Coral cover in MPA 0.0718 0.1349 0.0274 0.0584 0.1259

improvements in child nutritional status fairly quickly. We rst regress perceived change in sh abundance inside the MPA between the time the protected area was implemented and 2000 on MPA design attributes and initial conditions. These changes in sh abundance inside the MPA should then aect sh abundance outside the MPA and are hypothesized to aect catch over 200002. The predicted values from the abundance regression are thus included as an explanatory variable for the regression of changes in catch 200002. 16 Changes in catch are an endogenous explanatory variable in changes in child nutritional status 200002, thus we use 2SLS to estimate the child nutritional status regression, instrumenting for catch. Table 8 presents the results of this estimation. 17 In the child nutritional status regression, we do not nd a statistically signicant positive effect of catch on the proportion of underweight children. It is possible that those catching more sh are not the ones with 05 year old children. We nd that large nes are associated with a worsening of child nutritional status. The negative estimated impact of MPA nes on child nutritional status suggests that shermen who are caught and required to pay a ne have less disposable income to provide for their family, thereby reducing food consumption. If the ne acts as a deterrent to shing inside the MPA, it may also be that shermen obtain lower catches due to the closing of the shing ground. 18 As expected, the presence of a public water supply piped to homes has a positive statistically signicant eect on child nutritional status. A higher proportion of business owners is also associated with improved child nutritional status, suggesting that enterprise development is an important component of improving incomes in these areas. We nd no signicant MPA design factors that contribute to im-

proved child nutritional status. This may simply be a lagged eect: the benets community members derive from alternative income projects or wages from patrolling have not yet led to an increase in childrens weights. Alternatively, it may be that the benets received from alternative income projects and patrolling are oset by a decrease in benets from other activities, which are not included as explanatory variables. We nd that political stability at the municipal level (in terms of lower mayor turnover) has a statistically signicant positive eect on child nutritional status. Stable conditions foster investment and help to avoid discontinuity in services and programs that may aect child nutritional status. One of the province dummies is signicant, suggesting regional dierences. A perplexing result is the negative eect of tourism on child nutritional status. This suggests that the benets of tourism are not accruing to people within the communities and perhaps price increases associated with an inux of tourists are in fact decreasing community members purchasing power. These, of course, are speculations requiring further study. The results of this regression suggest that nutritional eects are a broader phenomena than simply being associated with MPA design. Ultimately, environmental protection issues are not driving child nutritional status. The largest eects are location specic and temporal. We have not found strong relationships between many of the MPA-related factors and child nutritional status (e.g., marking boundaries, paying patrollers, alternative income projects). This may be partially due to a true lack of eect and partially due to time lag issues and inability to control for many of the variables determining child nutritional status. These results suggest that environmental protection is not an instrument for development, but there are a

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Table 8. Regression of child nutritional status (200002) Explanatory variables Perceived change in catch Alt. income projects Tourism Proportion business owners MPA boundaries Size of ne Wage to patrollers Years since MPA Population density Distance to municipality Number of mayors Piped water Medical center Bohol Leyte Cebu Constant N P-value of F-test R-squared Change in proportion of underweight children 0.0244 (0.0344)a 0.0450 (0.0322) 0.0547** (0.0235) 0.0048** (0.0016) 0.0317 (0.0344) 0.0020** (0.0006) 0.0041 (0.0033) 0.0016 (0.0047) 0.00001 (0.0005) 0.0004 (0.0015) 0.0102* (0.0057) 0.0485** (0.0212) 0.0382 (0.0345) 0.0135 (0.0478) 0.0903** (0.0438) 0.0416 (0.0516) 0.0771 (0.0589) 305 0.0015 0.4380

a Standard errors (in parentheses) adjusted for within village correlation. * Signicant at 10% level. ** Signicant at 5% level.

few features of MPAs that do have eects on child nutritional status at the margin. The results of the reef health and child nutritional status regressions still oer important implications as to how marine protected areas should be designed, if the objective is to improve coral reef health without negatively aecting childrens well-being. The results suggest that the most promising MPA activities are alternative income projects and high wages

to patrollers, which divert or discourage, respectively, MPA exploitation and stimulate local household incomes in the neighborhood of the MPA. Alternative income projects may have a positive impact on the reef by diverting labor from shing. Higher patroller wages may improve reef health by attracting more skilled patrollers, or by causing patrollers to be more committed to the role they play in enforcing the MPA because there is a value placed on their job. The regressions reveal no statistically signicant eect of either alternative income projects or paying patrollers on childrens health, but one would expect a winwin situation to emerge as childrens nutritional status improves due to extra income to community members from patrolling and alternative income projects. Furthermore, activities that improve coral reef conditions signicantly (as the results suggest these do) enhance the possibility for spillovers of sh and catch increases, thus contributing further to the winwin situation. The preceding analysis does not provide direct evidence for positive eects of marine protected areas on child nutrition. This is not entirely surprising, considering the number of steps between MPA implementation and improved child nutritional status. 19 First, MPAs must be successful in terms of improving conditions inside, then there must be spillover of sh to adjacent areas. Even with this spillover, MPAs may still have no eect on artisanal shermens catch if shing activity is not managed outside the MPA. In nearly half of the communities in this study, the majority of respondents stated that sh catch decreased over 200002. This can arise from poor management and enforcement of MPAs, lack of spillover into adjacent areas, or dissipation of benets due to entry to the shery or capture of benets by shermen with more ecient gears. In addition, in 85% of communities, the majority of respondents stated that they travel further to sh since MPA was established. This will have a negative eect on catch per unit eort unless the alternative shing grounds are substantially more productive to compensate for the increased travel time. Finally, in half of the communities, the majority of respondents believe they are receiving no benet from the MPA. This suggests that the promised welfare eects of MPAs are not being fullled in many cases. If MPAs are believed to be a worthwhile pursuit, then the design features that can also have positive impacts on welfare must be emphasized and shing activity outside the MPA must be regu-

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lated to realize these potential increases in sh catch. Particularly in areas with high poverty, shutting down shing grounds requires that shermen benet in some way from this action. 5. CONCLUSIONS The analysis of data from the Philippines helps to clarify some important relationships between coral reef health and child nutritional status, as mediated by local context and MPA design variables. The regressions indicate some of the variables that may condition whether winwin or tradeo situations will occur. While the results did not reveal any MPA design variables that lead to both improved reef health and childrens nutritional status, providing alternative income projects and paying patrollers are associated with improved reef conditions, without any statistically signicant negative eect on childrens nutritional status. One would expect these activities to result in direct increases in income, thus winwin outcomes between reef health and child nutrition should eventually be observed. If improvements in reef health are associated with improvements in childrens nutritional status, then these activities further promote the winwin goal. The striking eect of alternative income projects deserves further elaboration. The analysis of the Philippines data strongly suggests that to improve MPA performance, it is essential to develop successful alternative income projects. Of course, this begs the question of what makes alternative income projects successful. Our results are not able to address this question, and in fact, it is unclear whether it is the presence of alternative livelihood strategies, the protability of these strategies, the number of successful alternative income projects, or latent

characteristics of the community that drives this relationship between successful alternative income projects and successful MPAs. The success of income-generating activities and enterprise development will also depend strongly on national policy and institutional environments which foster economic commerce. We cannot assess the relative importance of all of these eects on alternative income projects in our data, thus it poses an important question for future research. These results have highlighted some of the opportunities that exist for creating winwin situations between conservation and development and indicated where tradeos may exist. This should help managers in thinking about how to balance these two goals. These results suggest that protected areas and the communities around them would best be served by schemes that pay high wages to patrollers and ensure good enforcement, and lower the dependence on the ecosystem through alternative livelihood projects and stimulating local enterprise. Considering the potential losses to shermen from MPAs, special care must be taken in increasing the probability of successful outcomes and otherwise directing benets to shing households. This includes: Appropriately designing and implementing MPAs. Managing sheries outside of MPAs. MPAs must be one tool in a suite of shery management actions and must not be seen as an easy way out of proper management. Directing benets to shing communities through alternative income projects, development projects and direct compensation. Improving local opportunities and shifting eort from shing through education, training, and enterprise development.

NOTES
1. The national poverty line was P11,605 or $262 in 2000 (National Statistical Coordination Board, 2003). 2. Of course, this is assuming there is no intrahousehold allocation problem. Cases may exist in which the household has adequate resources, but does not provide adequate nutrition for the children. 3. The dashed lines in the diagram represent potential relationships that are not investigated with the data. 4. Three of the study sites in the Pollnac survey were not revisited in 2002, due political instability and health risks in the areas. Two other sites were omitted from the analysis; one changed locations during 200002 and the other is an outlier in terms of size and management. Thus this paper only considers 40 of the original 45 sites.

5. FNRI denes underweight (severe+moderate+mild) as lower than the 25th percentile, while NCHS denes underweight as lower than two standard deviations from

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WORLD DEVELOPMENT to the variance-covariance matrix (using the cluster command in STATA) to account for within-village correlation between observations on the dependent variable (Moulton, 1990; StataCorp, 2001). This correction makes use of a modied HuberWhite sandwich variance estimator, which is unbiased for cluster-correlated data (Wooldridge, 2002; Williams, 2000). 13. Note that the data for patroller wages were collected in 2002, thus there is potential endogeneity in this variable. We believe, however, that there was little change in patroller wages during 200002. 14. Because the MPA design and context variables are specic to MPAs, not households, we cannot control for more localized, unobserved heterogeneity via community-specic xed eects. 15. Improvement refers to category 3 (better) for the questions How is coral cover in sanctuary in 2002 compared to 2000? and How is abundance of sh inside sanctuary in 2002 compared to 2000? and categories 5 (improved slightly), 6 (improved), or 7 (improved a lot) for the question How has abundance of reef sh changed from 2000 to 2002? 16. The perceived change in abundance of sh inside the MPA between MPA-implementation and 2000 is from the Pollnac dataset, where individual responses are averaged per site. 17. The rst-stage results are presented in Appendix A. 18. We do in fact nd a negative statistically signicant eect of nes on catches. 19. Furthermore, we have not provided control sites to compare child nutrition in sites with versus without MPAs. For example, even if the regressions suggested a negative relationship between MPAs and child nutrition, it is possible that had there been no MPA, the declines in child nutrition would have been even greater.

the mean. Using the FNRI denition of moderately underweight as the cuto, we dene underweight as lower than the fth percentile. 6. Given our use of multiple indicators of coral reef health and since negative changes can occur nearly instantaneously for every indicator, the slower recovery times for some coral species should not have major implications for the analysis. 7. Only minor changes were made to the Pollnac methodology. A GPS device was used in 2002, thus the distance between observations could be measured more precisely. A physical quadrat was also used in 2002, rather than estimating a 1 m2 area. 8. This is a standard method of evaluating coral reef condition, see for example English, Wilkinson, and Baker (1994), Uychiaoco et al. (2001), Wilkinson (2002). 9. In addition, one could collect data at control sites with no MPA, in order to establish whether or not MPAs have positive eects on site conditions. Since this was not possible, we consider instead the question of what factors contribute to improvement in sites that do have MPAs. 10. The study did not show that perception data were consistent with objective measures over time. Based on our data, however, there does not appear to be a bias in believing conditions are better in the past or the current period. 11. Approximately eight respondents per site were interviewed. 12. Missing observations for some explanatory variables results in slightly dierent sample sizes for each regression. Treating each response as an individual observation rather than aggregating them by site level makes use of all the available information and we can control for any bias in perceptions resulting from respondent characteristics. A correction was performed

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APPENDIX A. FIRST-STAGE REGRESSIONS IN CHILD NUTRITIONAL STATUS MODEL Explanatory variables Perceived change in abundance of sh in MPA (pre-MPA-2000) 0.0023 (0.0044)a 0.0001 (0.0063) 0.0374 (0.0342) 0.4545** (0.1941) 0.6231** (0.2115) 0.2413** (0.0883) 0.0573** (0.0128) 0.1622** (0.0427) 0.0022 (0.0028) 0.8977** (0.1911) 0.9432** (0.2200) 0.3200 (0.3230) 2.8595** (0.3530) 306 0.0000 0.6088 Perceived change in catch (200002) 0.7198** (0.2525) 0.2308 (0.2309) 0.0937 (0.2145) 0.0098 (0.0170) 0.0747 (0.2772) 0.0060 (0.0050) 0.0146** (0.0060)

Size of MPA Size of ne Years since MPA established Initial conditions of sh stocks in MPA Community inuenced size/location Financial/material inputs from municipality Distance to municipality Number of mayors Population density Bohol Leyte Cebu Constant N P-value of F-test R-squared Explanatory variables (and instruments) Predicted change in abundance of sh in MPA Alt. income projects Tourism Proportion business owners MPA boundaries Size of MPA Size of ne

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APPENDIX Acontinued Explanatory variables (and instruments) Wage to patrollers Years since MPA established Population density Distance to municipality Number of mayors Piped water Medical center Bohol Leyte Cebu Age of respondent Other income sources Constant N P-value of F-test R-squared
a *

Perceived change in catch (200002) 0.0068 (0.0170) 0.0618 (0.0366) 0.0038 (0.0032) 0.0631** (0.0134) 0.0545 (0.0508) 0.3266 (0.3241) 0.1956 (0.2495) 1.4649** (0.3024) 0.9072** (0.3249) 0.6328** (0.2913) 0.0080 (0.0067) 0.0921 (0.1502) 0.8274 (0.7563) 288 0.0000 0.0757

Standard errors adjusted for within village correlation. Signicant at 10% level. ** Signicant at 5% level.