Lecture Topics

Climate Variability II
Mechanisms and Influences on Synoptic Weather

MET 171B SJSU

Intra-seasonal modes of climate variability IntraMadden Julian Oscillation Pacific North American Oscillation Annular Modes (NAO, AO) Inter-annual modes of climate variability InterEl-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ElInter-decadal modes of climate variability InterPacific Decadal Oscillation

The Weather-Climate Gap WeatherPredictability

This Time: El Nino

Lecture Outline
El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ElDefinitions/Characteristics Dynamical Mechanisms Teleconnections - Influence on Synoptic Weather

synoptic 10 - 30 days WEATHER INTRASEASONAL

seasonal CLIMATE

Fundamental Question: Is weather predictable at lead times longer than those of deterministic numerical weather forecasts? Need added predictive skill in the weather-climate gap. weather-

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Big Gorilla: most influential mode of interannual climate variability variability 1997, El Nino year (warm) 1998, La Nina year (cold)
Ocean surface temperatures

La Nada: The Normal Pacific Normal

El Nio An anomalous warming in eastern Pacific ocean temperatures Ni (warm water moves east) La Nia An anomalous cooling in eastern and central Pacific ocean Ni temperatures (warm water stays west) Southern Oscillation Pressure fluctuations centers of action in the western Pacific/eastern Indian Oceans and the southeastern Pacific
El Nino/La Nina refers to Ocean, Southern Oscillation to Atmosphere

Characteristics of El Nio

Characteristics of La Nia

Anomalous low (high) pressure in the eastern (western) Pacific Weak or even reversed trade winds across Pacific Dry (Wet) conditions in the west (east) Pacific Deep thermocline in the east upwelling capped

Anomalous low (high) pressure in the western (eastern) Pacific Stronger than normal trade winds across Pacific Dry (Wet) conditions in the east (west) Pacific Deep thermocline in the west shallow in the east (cool water upwells) upwells)

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

Tracks see-saw in pressure between eastern Pacific/Indian seeOcean and central Pacific Uses pressure observations from Tahiti and Darwin, Australia Mean SLP

Determining Phase of the ENSO

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Tracks see-saw in pressure between eastern Pacific/Indian seeOcean and central Pacific Uses pressure observations from Tahiti and Darwin, Australia
Avg. Tahiti MSLP for month Avg. Darwin MSLP for month

SOI =

[P

diff

Pdiffav

Long term avg. of Pdiff for that month (climatology)

SD ( Pdiff )

Long-term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month

Determining Phase of the ENSO

SST-based methods use measurements of sea surface SSTtemperature in various averaging regions of the Pacific ONI (Oceanic Nio Index): Running 3 month average of Ni Nino 3.4 SST El Nino/La Nina conditions declared when ONI exceeds 0.5C anomaly for 5+ consecutive months

ONI and SOI are the primary indexes

OLR Anomoly

There are many other indexes used to track ENSO

Where are we now?

Last month SST Anomolies show that EL Nino is fading. fading

Where are we going?

Characteristics of ENSO
Begins to develop in early summer Maximum amplitude in Dec hence its namesake Strongest atmospheric teleconnections in DJF Decays rapidly Feb-Mar FebTypically last 12-18 mo 12Return Interval of 2-7 years : Why 2-7 years? 22-

Evolution of 1997-1998 El Nino 1997-

Dynamical Theories of ENSO

Bjerknes Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback OceanPositive feedback loop that fosters development Chicken (ocean) vs. Egg (atmosphere) issue

Delayed Oscillator Theory Stochastic Theory

Bjerknes Theory
HigherSSTineastPacific LowerSSTineastPacific

Bjerknes Theory

Winds

SST

Positive feedback between circulation and SST Explains the amplification of a warm or cold ENSO event but does not explain the transition between the two Questions remain:
What causes transition to events of opposite sign? Why do events last 12-18 months on average? 12-

Theory I: Delayed Oscillator

Kelvin Waves

Idea: systematic coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback oceanStart w/ warm ENSO, apply forcing near dateline Relaxation of trade winds sends oceanic Rossby wave west (moves very slow ~ 300 days to cross Pacific) Reflection of oceanic Rossby wave off western boundary of Pacific sends rapid oceanic Kelvin wave (equatorially trapped westerly moving wave) eastward (70 days).

3. Kelvin wave causes thermocline to rise across basin, having little effect on SST except in eastern Pacific where thermocline is shallowest 4. Allows cool SST to return 5. SST gradient intensification of trade winds positive feedback 6. Process repeats and switches phases periodically This idea holds that ENSO events with positive feedbacks between trade wind, SST, and convection, this theory reproduce cycles of 3-5 years 3-

Theory I: Delayed Oscillator

Warm Water to West, Shallow Thermocline to East, cool SST

4. Allows cool SST to return 5. SST gradient leads to intensification of trade winds feedback 6. Process repeats and switches phases periodically

positive
Oceanic waves force thermocline to rise and fall, but since only shallow in the east, resulting impact in SST is largest there

This idea holds that ENSO events with positive feedbacks between trade wind, SST, and convection, this theory reproduce cycles of 3-5 years 3-

Theory II: Stochastic

ENSO events triggered by random forcings from the atmosphere Indeed ENSO cycles are not regular, therefore this theory better conforms to observations Possible connection between burst the large scale tropical convective complexes associated with the MJO leading to westerly wind bursts as a triggering mechanism
Top: SST anomaly and sea level anomaly; Bottom: Thermocline Depth Anomaly

Teleconnection
Defined: Interconnection between atmospheric circulation in one sector of the globe to influence directly or indirectly circulation circulation patterns that span large areas Low Frequency : Longer than synoptic timescale (weeks to decades)

Teleconnection to Midlatitudes

Low Convection Tropical Pressure

Example:

Variable 1: Changes in tropical Pacific SST Variable 2: Changes in strength/location of subtropical jet over Pacific and downstream precipitation patterns over Western US

Composite: Averages taken over all El Nino (La Nina) winters Warmest SST

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/images/u200.comp.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/images/z200.comp.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/images/u200.comp.la.gif

Which map shows average winter precipitation anomaly for El Nino conditions, and which for La Nina?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/images/z200.comp.la.gif

ENSO Signals (Winter Precip)

ENSO Signals (Winter Temp)

ENSO Teleconnections
ENSO phases alter synoptic patterns Major US changes during warm events: - Subtropical Jet Extends eastward and south - Blocking patterns migrate eastward - Persistant positive PNA pattern - colder and wetter along the southern tier Major US changes during cold events: - subtopical jet weakens - drier and warmer in southern tier - cold and wet in Pacific Northwest. - more negative PNA patterns

ENSO Teleconnections
Tropical Cyclone Frequency (warm phase)
Reduction in TC over Australia & NW Pacific (warm water and convection shifts east) Reduction in TC over Atlantic (increased vertical shear) Increase in eastern Pacific - near Hawaii (increased SST+ convection)

ENSO and Global Temperature

Atmosphere gains a tremendous amount of energy during ENSO events due to the increased latent heat from the ocean. Global temperatures spike noticeably during strong El Nino events (1C).

Insert Cooling Graphic Here

Decadal Climate Variability

Involves memory of system: persistence of cool SST from one memory winter to the next This means ocean processes play big role. Cool water in winter during deep mixed layer gets stored below mixed layer in summer only to reemerge next winterpersistence winter Still not completely resolved whether PDO is real or artifact of climate system

PDO: El Ninos Grandfather

Stronger impact Weaker impact 40 year cycles Last ~ 2 decades Extratropical roots 2-7 yr quasiperiodic Lasts 1-2 years Tropical roots

Warm Phase

Warm Phase

Interplay between the PDO and the dominant ENSO cycles important - 1983 and 1997 strong ENSO events occurred in years in which the PDO was in a warm phase leads to amplification of ENSO signal. - Switch in PDO phase in 1977 plays big role in climate patterns across the West

Back to the Cold Phase???