CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Friday, November 11, 2011 6:30 pm (ET)

The 2012 Republican Nomination: Now a Close Three-Way Race November 6-10, 2011 In the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Newt Gingrichs support continues to slowly grow, and he is now tied with Mitt Romney for second place, while Herman Cain just edges both of them out for the top spot. Both Cain and Romney have lost support since late October. 61% of Republican primary voters say the sexual harassment accusations against Cain wont make any difference in their vote, but 30% say the charges make them less likely to back him, and that rises to 38% among women. Romney is seen as most ready to be Commander-in-Chief. Newt Gingrich is seen as best able to handle an international crisis. But the race could still change; seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still too early to say for sure which candidate they will support. The field of Republican candidates now has three candidates within striking distance of each other at the top of the list: with 18%, Herman Cain is in the top spot, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich with 15% each. Support for both Cain and Romney has declined since late last month, and Gingrich is the only one of the top three whose support is steadily if slowly on the upswing. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 10/25/2011 10/3/2011 18% 25% 17% 15 21 17 15 10 8 8 6 12 5 8 7 4 2 4 2 1 3 1 1 2 14 12 10 17 14 18

Herman Cain Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Ron Paul Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Someone else Undecided/Dont know

9/16/2011 5% 16 7 23 5 7 1 1 11 22

Cain has lost support among women since late October. Then, he led among women, garnering 28% of their support. Now, his support among women is just 15%. He has also lost ground with conservatives, from 30% to 23% now. And there has been some movement among

Tea Party supporters as well; their support for Cain has declined from 32% to 19%. Romney has lost support among men, while Gingrichs support among that group has increased 8 points. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (Among Republican Primary voters) ----- Now -------- 10/25/2011 ----Cain Romney Gingrich Cain Romney Gingrich 19% 11 21 32% 18 15 18% 21 8 17% 26 5 21% 15% 23% 9% 15 16 14 21 19 10 16 16 22% 28% 30% 22% 23 19 18 21 11 9 12 8

Tea Party Non-Tea Party Men Women Conservatives Moderates

Impact of the Allegations against Herman Cain Six in 10 Republican primary voters say the charges of sexual harassment against Herman Cain make no difference to their vote. Still, 30% say the charges make them less likely to support Cain. 71% of self-identified Tea Party supporters say the allegations make no difference, as do 67% of conservatives. This poll was being conducted as new, and more specific, allegations arose against Cain. Do the Allegations Against Cain Make You? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Total Tea Party Supporters Women More likely to vote for him 4% 4% 1% No difference 61 71 57 Less likely to vote for him 30 21 38 Among women, 38% say they are less likely to support Cain because of the allegations against him. 57% say that will make no difference in their vote. Just 23% of men say they are less likely to vote for Cain because of the harassment allegations. Voters overall are following this story: most have heard something about the harassment allegations, including 59% of Republican primary voters who have heard a lot. How Much Have You Heard About the Sexual Harrassment Allegations Against Cain? All Voters Republican Primary Voters A lot 47% 59% Some 26 25 Not much/nothing 27 17 Among Republican voters who have heard or read a lot about it, a majority still says the allegations wont impact their vote.

Electability and Candidate Characteristics Romney, by a wide margin, is still seen as the most electable of the group. Rick Perrys decline on this measure is notable, from 21% in September to 6% now. Which Candidate is Most Likely to Beat Obama? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 9/2011 Mitt Romney 40% 32% Herman Cain 20 8 Newt Gingrich 6 2 Rick Perry 6 21 Michele Bachmann 4 3 Ron Paul 2 2 Rick Santorum 2 2 Jon Huntsman 1 1 Dont know 13 16 But electability is not the top criteria for picking a nominee: 58% say its more important to have a nominee that agrees with them on the issues than one who can beat President Obama next year (39%). Back in September, Republican voters were more evenly divided on this question. More Important that Republican Nominee (among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2011 Agrees with me on the issues 58% 48% Can beat Obama in 2012 39 48 That view helps Cain somewhat: Cain leads Romney and Gingrich among Republican voters who think its more important that a candidate shares their issue positions. Romney leads among those who say electability is more important. By 40% to 14%, Republican primary voters prefer a nominee whos mostly been in the business or private sector, instead of having a mostly political background. Four in ten say it doesnt matter. Republican Nominees Experience Should be Mostly (among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2011 In politics and government 14% 14% In business or private sector 40 48 Doesnt matter 41 35

Becoming Commander-in-Chief Mitt Romney is also the top choice as most qualified to be commander-in-chief (26%), followed by Gingrich (21%) and Cain (11%). Gingrich is most trusted to handle an international crisis.

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Herman Cain Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Ron Paul Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Dont know

Which Candidate (Among Republican Primary Voters) Most Qualified to be Trust Most to Handle Commander-in-Chief International Crisis 26% 19% 21 31 11 8 9 9 5 3 4 3 2 3 2 4 15 15

Romney and Cain come out on top as the candidate most representing voters values, followed by Michele Bachmann. Which Candidate Most Represents Your Values (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 9/2011 Mitt Romney 17% 15% Herman Cain 13 14 Michele Bachmann 10 13 Rick Perry 9 12 Newt Gingrich 9 6 Ron Paul 7 8 Jon Huntsman 2 1 Rick Santorum 5 5 Dont know 19 19 A Still-Fluid Race But two months before the first delegates are selected, voters say the race can change. The total number of undecided voters, plus those who volunteer theyd like someone else, is up five points from last month, to 31% from 26%. There is further indication that candidate support is not yet solidified: seven in 10 Republican voters who pick a candidate say its too early to say whether their mind is made up. Mind Made Up Whom to Support? (among Republican Primary Voters with a Choice) Now 12/2007 Yes 28% 23% Too early 72 76 A majority of Republican primary voters who did choose a candidate have reservations about their choice. Only a third says they strongly favor their candidate.

Support for Candidate (among Republican primary voters with a choice) Strongly favor your candidate 32% Like your candidate, but with reservations 58 Dislike other candidates 8

Views of the Republican Candidates Only the three frontrunners Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich have a net favorable opinion rating among Republican primary voters. And still many voters remain undecided about all eight major candidates. Views of Republican Presidential Candidates (Among Republican Primary Voters) Favorable Not favorable Dont Know/Havent heard 42% 23 35 41% 19 40 41% 27 32 23% 33 43 25% 31 45 23% 33 44 16% 15 69 8% 16 76

Romney Cain Gingrich Perry Bachmann Paul Santorum Huntsman

The Debates Three in four Republican primary voters say debate performances are at least somewhat important in deciding their vote, including 30% who say they are very important. How Important is a Candidates Debate Performance in Deciding Your Vote? (among Republican primary voters) Very 30% Somewhat 46 Not very/not at all 24 And 61% of Republican voters have tuned in to watch at least one debate. Half of registered voters overall have watched as well. Are You Watching Any of the Republican Debates? (Among Voters) All Republican primary voters Yes 52% 61% No 47 38

Views of a Flat Tax Three of the current candidates pursuing the Republican nomination for President Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry have all proposed flat taxes, and Republican primary voters like the idea: 52% favor one, while 22% oppose it. Americans overall, on the other hand, are far less supportive. Do You Favor or Oppose a Flat Tax? (Among Republican Primary Voters) All Americans Republican Primary Voters 32% 52% 36 22 32 26

Favor Oppose Dont know

Just 15% of Americans think they would pay less in taxes under a flat tax system, while 43% think they would pay about the same and 27% think they would pay more. Critics of the flat tax system say it would unfairly reduce the tax burden of wealthier Americans, and those earning over $100,000 a year are almost three times as likely to say they will pay less under a flat tax system than those earning under $100,000. Still, most Americans of all income groups think they will either pay the same amount or more under a flat tax. Under a Flat Tax System, Would You Pay? Total Under $100K Less 15% 13% More 27 29 Same 43 43 Dont know 15 15

$100K+ 32% 13 46 9

____________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from November 6-10, 2011 among 1,182 adults nationwide. 1,029 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 382 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS News National Poll The 2012 Republican Nomination: November 6-10, 2011 q1-q14 SEPARATE RELEASE

Now a Close Three-Way Race

q15 The current income tax system mostly taxes higher income people at higher rates and lower income people at lower rates. Some people have proposed replacing that system with a flat tax which would tax people at all income levels at one, flat tax rate. Would you favor or oppose replacing the current income tax system with one flat tax rate or don't you know enough about it yet to say? *********** TOTAL RESPONDENTS *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 32 49 18 33 36 22 52 34 28 26 26 31 4 3 4 2 *********** Rep. Primary Voters % 52 22 23 2

Favor Oppose Don't know enough about it Don't know/No answer

*Wording change:

Jan05b* % 29 33 36 2

omits the word mostly

q16 Under a proposed flat tax system, do you think you personally would pay more in taxes, less in taxes, or about the same amount in taxes? Jan96d* 28 17 43 12

Pay more Pay less Pay the same Don't know/No answer q17-q20 SEPARATE RELEASE

27 15 43 15

21 15 47 17

31 17 37 15

27 13 46 14

23 16 45 16

*Wording wording: Under this proposed tax system

q21 Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or would you like to see someone else nominated? Rep. Primary Voters % 18 15 15 8 5 4 2 1 14 12 1 5 Oct11a1 % 25 21 10 6 8 2 1 1 12 11 0 3

Herman Cain Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Ron Paul Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Someone Else Undecided (Vol.) No/No one DK/NA

q22 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * Republican Primary Voters with Choice * % 28 72 0 Oct11a1 % 19 80 1

Mind made up Still too early DK/NA

q23 Which of these best describes your preference for the Republican nomination for President in 2012: 1) I strongly favor my candidate, 2) I like my candidate but with reservations, or 3) I dislike the other candidates? Sep11a 30 50 14 6

Strongly favor Like with reservations Dislike others DK/NA q24-q25 FOR FUTURE RELEASE

32 58 8 2

q26 Is your opinion of Michele Bachmann favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Michele Bachmann yet to have an opinion? *********** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 15 24 11 11 41 28 54 39 16 20 10 17 28 29 25 31 0 0 0 2 *********** Rep. Primary Voters % 25 31 19 26 0

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

Seplla % 19 36 20 24 1

q27 Is your opinion of Herman Cain favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Herman Cain yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 20 37 19 24 0 34 22 20 24 0 6 55 14 24 1 22 32 23 23 0 41 19 17 23 0 14 14 15 57 0

q28 Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Newt Gingrich yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 19 41 18 22 0 38 27 20 15 0 4 57 16 23 0 18 37 19 26 0 41 27 17 15 0 18 46 19 17 0

q29 Is your opinion of Jon Huntsman favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Jon Huntsman yet to have an opinion? *********** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 8 8 11 6 15 15 18 13 18 21 16 17 59 56 55 64 0 0 0 0 *********** Rep. Primary Voters % 8 16 21 55 0

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

Seplla % 9 18 17 56 0

q30 Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Ron Paul yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 16 32 21 31 0 18 32 20 30 0 5 39 20 35 1 23 26 22 28 1 23 33 18 26 0 17 31 23 28 1

q31 Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Rick Perry yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 13 40 21 26 0 23 30 25 22 0 6 48 19 27 0 10 41 19 28 2 23 33 24 19 1 21 28 21 29 1

q32 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 25 31 26 18 0 40 20 26 14 0 17 41 22 19 1 21 30 29 20 0 42 23 23 12 0 25 29 29 16 1 or haven't you

q33 Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, not favorable, undecided, heard enough about Rick Santorum yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 7 17 15 60 1 14 13 19 54 0 3 22 8 66 1 6 17 19 59 0 16 15 17 52 0

7 18 18 56 1

q34 Thinking about the Republican party's nominee for President in 2012, if you had to choose, which is more important to you -- having a Republican nominee who agrees with your positions on most issues, or having a nominee with the best chance of defeating Barack Obama in 2012? Rep. Primary Voters % 58 39 3 Sep11a % 48 48 4

Agrees with issues Win in 2012 Don't know/No answer

q35 Would you prefer the Republican nominee for president be someone whose experience has been mostly in politics and government, or someone whose experience has been mostly in the business or private sector, or doesn't it matter to you? Mostly politics and government Mostly business and private sector Doesn't matter Don't know/No answer q36-37 BLANK q38 Which one of these candidates do you think most represents the values you try to live by? Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Sep11b 15 14 13 6 12 8 5 1 2 5 19 14 40 41 5 14 48 35 3

Mitt Romney Herman Cain Michele Bachmann Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Ron Paul Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman All of them (vol.) None of them (vol.) DK/NA

17 13 10 9 9 7 5 2 1 8 19

q39 Which one of these candidates do you trust most to handle an international crisis? Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Rick Perry Herman Cain Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann Ron Paul Rick Santorum All of them (vol.) None of them (vol.) DK/NA 31 19 9 8 4 3 3 3 0 5 15

10

q40 Which one of these candidates do you think is most qualified to be Commander-inChief? Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum? Rep. Primary Voters % 26 21 11 9 5 4 2 2 1 4 15

Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Herman Cain Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum All of them (vol.) None of them (vol.) DK/NA

q41 Which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012? Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

Mitt Romney Herman Cain Newt Gingrich Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Ron Paul Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman All of them (vol.) None of them (vol.) DK/NA

Rep. Primary Voters % 40 20 6 6 4 2 2 1 4 2 13

Sep11b % 32 8 2 21 3 2 2 1 7 6 16

q42 How important is a candidate's debate performance in deciding your vote for the Republican nominee for president--very important, somewhat important, not very important, not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important DK/NA 30 46 13 11 0 34 48 11 7 0

11

q43 How much have you heard or read about allegations of sexual harassment made against Herman Cain in the 1990's when he was head of the National Restaurant Association - a lot, some, not much, or not at all? ***** REGISTERED VOTERS **** Total Rep Primary Voters % % 47 59 26 25 12 7 15 10 0 0

A lot Some Not much Nothing at all DK/NA

q44 Do these allegations make you more likely to vote for Herman Cain for the Republican nomination, less likely to vote for Herman Cain, or won't they make a difference in your vote? More likely Less likely No difference DK/NA 4 30 61 5

q81 These last few questions are for background only. So far, have you watched or listened to any of the recent debates among the Republican candidates running for president? ***** REGISTERED VOTERS **** *** Party ID *** Rep. Primary Total Rep Dem Ind Voters % % % % % 52 55 49 53 61 47 44 51 46 38 1 1 0 1 1

Yes No DK/NA

Sep11b % 45 55 0

Total Respondents Total Registered Voters Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Republican Primary Voters

UNWEIGHTED 1,182 1,029 341 368 473 382

WEIGHTED 955 306 (26%) 374 (32%) 502 (42%) 341

12