Professional Documents
Culture Documents
August | Issue 17
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THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
2
08 PeterDixon
This month
04 Whatyoushouldknowabout
monetarypolicy
Una Pjanic
08 Infationisalwaysandeverywhere
Peter Dixon
15 Whereareweinthecorporate
leveragecycle?
Bernd Meyer
19 Theneedforcompetitionamong
exchanges
Tommy Fransson
21 FIMScandinaviaTeam
22 Ourworld
24 Equityfash
Alexander Krmer
26 Equitystrategy
Gunnar Hamann
30 HybridProducts
Anton Hong & Thomas Etheve
32 GettingexposedtoInfation
Dr. Oliver Brockhaus
34 ViewsfromtheTradingFloor
Oliver Sultan
38 SowhatisVega?
40 Commodityspotlight
Eugen Weinberg
44 Aneffcientinfationhedge?
Dr Konstantinos Kalligeros
48 Fundsplatform
Huw Price
50 NewETFinthefunduniverse
Daniel Briesemann
53 FundWatchlist
Xavier Burkhard
56 Indicesplatform
Alicia Kerbrat
58 StrategiesUpdate
60 Asiafocus
Ashley Davies
63 Growthvs.Infation
San Tam
66 Contacts
Infation is always and everywhere...
To read the latest version and access archived editions of Thinking Ahead, please visit:
http://fm.commerzbank.com/Docs/ThinkingAhead/Index.html
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
Editors letter
With a global economic recovery underway and the interest rates of the most important global economies at or near
historic record lows, the prospect of infation is beginning to occupy the minds of institutional investors, and central
bankers. While infation rates in both the US and the Euro zone are currently moving within very low levels, given the
aforementioned circumstances, infationary risks cannot be ruled out going forward. The Euro zone merits particular
consideration, where a prolonged weaker Euro relative to main trading currencies has the potential to diminish
purchasing power and demand for imported goods.
The US economy, despite some weaker economic data of late, is frmly entrenched in a virtuous cycle, with corporate
profts surging, employment stabilised and improving consumer sentiment. Interest rate increases are not likely in
the foreseeable future, and while core US infation is at a 40 plus year low, the loose monetary policy which will most
likely be unwound slowly, has the potential to tend consumer prices upwards.
In this issue, we discuss the contrasting historical experiences of Germany and the Anglo-Saxon economies.
We also discuss the effects of an infationary scenario from an asset allocation perspective.
What can one do to protect ones investment from infationary effects? Our product specialists propose a number
of products and solutions.
Wishing all our readers a pleasant summer,
Yours,
Jaime Uribe
Co-Head of Financial Institutions Marketing,
Equity Markets & Commodities
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
Givingacentralbankaclearremitofmaintainingprice
stability,andholdingitaccountableforachievingthat,
isseenasasine qua nonofacrediblemonetarypolicy
regime.Thelanguageinwhichthatremitisembodied
variesfromcountrytocountry.Buttheviewthat
pricestabilityistheoverridingobjectiveofmonetary
policyisnowcommontobothindustrialisedcountries
andemergingmarkets.Italsorefectstheexperience
ofthepastwherehighandunstableinfationledto
greaterfuctuationsinoutputandemploymentthan
accompaniedperiodsoflowandstableinfation.
Acommitmenttopricestabilityisnowseenasthekey
toachievingbroadereconomicstability.
The way in which monetary policy infuences the economy can
be explained as follows. The central bank is the sole issuer
of banknotes and sole provider of bank reserves, ie it is the
monopoly supplier of the monetary base. By virtue of this
monopoly, the central bank is able to infuence money market
conditions and steer short-term interest rates.
In the short run, a change in money market interest rates
induced by the central bank sets in motion a number of
mechanisms and actions by economic agents, ultimately
infuencing developments in economic variables such as output
or prices. This process also known as the monetary policy
transmission mechanism is complex and, while its broad
features are understood, there is no unique and undisputed
view of all the aspects involved.
However, it is a widely accepted proposition in the economic
profession that, in the long run, ie after all adjustments in the
economy have worked through, a change in the quantity of
money in the economy (all other things being equal) will be
refected in a change in the general level of prices and will not
induce permanent changes in real variables such as real output
or unemployment. The explanation for this is straightforward:
A change in the quantity of money in circulation ultimately
represents a change in the unit of account, in much the same
way as changing the standard unit used to measure distance
(eg switching from kilometres to miles) would not alter the actual
distance between two locations.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
THETrANSMISSIONMECHANISM
As the Governing Council of the ECB is responsible for taking
monetary policy decisions aimed at the maintenance of price
stability, it is crucial that the ECB develops a view about how
monetary policy affects developments in the price level. The
process through which monetary policy decisions affect the
economy in general, and the price level in particular, is known as
the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The individual
links through which monetary policy impulses (typically) proceed
are known as transmission channels.
Astylisedillustrationofthetransmissionmechanismfrom
interestratestoprices
The transmission mechanism through which central banks
infuence prices is because of the numerous links and
interdependencies between different components of a developed
economy a complex process. The (long) chain of cause and
effect starts with a change in the offcial interest rates set by
the central bank on its own operations. In these operations, the
central bank typically provides funds to banks (base money).
Given its monopoly over the creation of base money, the central
bank can fully determine the interest rates on its operations.
Since the central bank thereby affects the funding cost of
liquidity for banks, banks need to pass on these costs when
lending to their customers. Through this process, the central
bank has a dominant infuence on money market conditions and
can thereby steer money market interest rates. Because of the
impact it has on fnancing conditions in the economy but also
because of its impact on expectations monetary policy can
affect other fnancial variables such as asset prices (eg stock
market prices) and exchange rates.
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THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
7
For example, all other things being equal, higher interest rates
tend to make it less attractive for households or companies
to take out loans in order to fnance their consumption or
investment, thereby infuencing supply and demand in goods
markets. At the same time, the domestic currency is likely
to appreciate as Euro deposits and interest bearing assets
denominated in Euro become more attractive relative to
other currencies. Exchange rate movements, in turn, affect
the domestic price of imported goods. If the exchange rate
appreciates, the price of imported goods tends to fall, thus
helping to reduce infation directly, or, if these imports are
used as inputs into the production process, lower prices for
inputs might feed through into lower prices for fnal goods.
An appreciation of the exchange rate would thus tend to reduce
infationary pressures.
Other channels through which monetary policy can infuence
price developments work by infuencing the private sectors
longer term expectations. If a central bank enjoys a high degree
of credibility in pursuing its objective, monetary policy can exert
a powerful direct infuence on price developments by guiding
peoples expectations of future infation and thereby infuencing
their wage and price setting behaviour.
THEECBSqUANTITATIVEDEFINITIONOF
PrICESTABIlITy
The ECB has set itself an infation target of below but close to
2%. This defnition makes clear that not only infation above 2%
but also that defation (ie price level declines) is inconsistent with
price stability.
While defation implies similar costs to the economy as
infation, avoiding defation is also important because, once it
occurs, it may become entrenched as a result of the fact that
nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero. In a defationary
environment monetary policy may thus not be able to suffciently
stimulate aggregate demand by using its interest rate instrument.
Any attempt to bring the nominal interest rate below zero would
fail, as the public would prefer to hold cash rather than to lend
or hold deposits at a negative rate. Although various monetary
policy actions are possible even when nominal interest rates
are at zero, the effectiveness of these alternative policies is not
certain. This makes it more diffcult for monetary policy to fght
defation than to fght infation.
The ECB decided to publicly announce a quantitative defnition of
price stability for a number of reasons. First, the defnition helps
to make the monetary policy framework easier to understand
(ie it makes monetary policy more transparent). Second, the
defnition of price stability provides a clear and measurable
yardstick against which the public can hold the ECB accountable.
Deviations of price developments from the defnition of price
stability can be identifed, and the ECB would then be required to
Una Pjanic
provide an explanation for such deviations and to explain how it
intends to re-establish price stability within an acceptable period
of time. Finally, the defnition provides guidance to the public for
forming expectations of future price developments.
CONClUSION
Appreciation of the fact that our present understanding of the
economy is limited should be central to the policy-making
process. It is precisely that lack of knowledge that makes
mechanical policy rules incredible. Perhaps one of the strongest
arguments for delegating decisions on interest rates to an
independent central bank is that, whereas democratically elected
politicians do not often receive praise when they say I dont
know, those words should be ever present on the tongues of
central bankers. And it is important for the central bank to be
transparent about both what it thinks it understands and what
it knows it does not understand. In so doing, it may reduce the
scale of wasted resources devoted to discovering the secrets
of central bank thinking, and reduce the number of players in
fnancial markets who fear that others have inside information.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
%
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0 10 15 5 20 25 35 30 40
Volallly %, EURI
Cash
Eurodenomnaled lolal relurn and Sharpe ralo over lhe lasl 12 monlhs or assel classes
Chart1:Credithasthehighest12MEUrSharperatioofall
assetclassesbuttotalreturnonequityishigher
Source: Bloomberg, Markit, Datastream, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, data as
at July 2010
1
0
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3
4
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180 183 186 18 12 15 18 2001 2004 2007 2010
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Client focus
Integrity
Commitment
Results focus
We wish all Thinking Ahead magazine readers every success in
H2 2010 and beyond.
Yours Sincerely
FIM Scandinavia
For further information contact:
Email: FIMscandi@commerzbank.com
Phone: +44 207 444 9389
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
22
FOREIGN BRANCHES
REPRESENTATIVE OFFICES
SUBSIDIARIES AND
HOLDINGS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES 2012
GREAT BRITAIN POLAND UKRAINE
> 1,000 EMPLOYEES:
LUXEMBOURG
SINGAPORE
CZECH REPUBLIC
USA
2501,000 EMPLOYEES:
BELGIUM
CHINA
FRANCE
HONG KONG
ITALY
JAPAN
NETHERLANDS
AUSTRIA
RUSSIA
SWITZERLAND
SPAIN
HUNGARY
25250 EMPLOYEES:
EGYPT
ETHIOPIA
ARGENTINA
AZERBAIJAN
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
CHILE
GREECE
INDIA
INDONESIA
IRAN
IRELAND
KAZAKHSTAN
CROATIA
LATVIA
LEBANON
LIBYA
MALAYSIA
NIGERIA
PANAMA
PORTUGAL
ROMANIA
SERBIA
SLOVAKIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SOUTH KOREA
TAIWAN
THAILAND
TURKEY
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UAE
VENEZUELA
VIETNAM
BELARUS
< 25 EMPLOYEES:
NOVOSIBIRSK
ALMATY
ASHGABAT
TEHRAN
BEIRUT
CAIRO
TRIPOLI
DUBAI
LAGOS
ADDIS ABEBA
JOHANNESBURG
MUMBAI
BANGKOK
SINGAPORE
JAKARTA
MELBOURNE
HONG KONG
SHANGHAI
TAIPEI
TIANJIN
BEIJING
TOKYO
BAKU
SEOUL
KUALA LUMPUR
HO CHI MINH CITY
DUBLIN
LONDON
BRUSSELS
LUXEMBOURG
AMSTERDAM
PARIS
BARCELONA
MADRID
MILAN
ZAGREB
BUDAPEST
BRATISLAVA VIENNA
BRNO KOSICE
HRADEC KRLOV
OSTRAVA
WARSAW
PRAGUE
PLZE
BELGRADE
BUCHAREST
ISTANBUL
KIEV
MINSK
RIGA
MOSCOW
TASHKENT
NEW YORK
CARACAS
SO PAULO
BUENOS AIRES
SANTIAGO
DE CHILE
PANAMA CITY
ZURICH
Around 1,000 employees at 100 locations in countries did you
know how big Commerzbanks world really is? This map shows you
all the locations at which the new Commerzbank is represented.
It also offers you an insight into how many colleagues we have in
place to support our customers at these locations.
Our world
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
2
FOREIGN BRANCHES
REPRESENTATIVE OFFICES
SUBSIDIARIES AND
HOLDINGS
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES 2012
GREAT BRITAIN POLAND UKRAINE
> 1,000 EMPLOYEES:
LUXEMBOURG
SINGAPORE
CZECH REPUBLIC
USA
2501,000 EMPLOYEES:
BELGIUM
CHINA
FRANCE
HONG KONG
ITALY
JAPAN
NETHERLANDS
AUSTRIA
RUSSIA
SWITZERLAND
SPAIN
HUNGARY
25250 EMPLOYEES:
EGYPT
ETHIOPIA
ARGENTINA
AZERBAIJAN
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
CHILE
GREECE
INDIA
INDONESIA
IRAN
IRELAND
KAZAKHSTAN
CROATIA
LATVIA
LEBANON
LIBYA
MALAYSIA
NIGERIA
PANAMA
PORTUGAL
ROMANIA
SERBIA
SLOVAKIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SOUTH KOREA
TAIWAN
THAILAND
TURKEY
TURKMENISTAN
UZBEKISTAN
UAE
VENEZUELA
VIETNAM
BELARUS
< 25 EMPLOYEES:
NOVOSIBIRSK
ALMATY
ASHGABAT
TEHRAN
BEIRUT
CAIRO
TRIPOLI
DUBAI
LAGOS
ADDIS ABEBA
JOHANNESBURG
MUMBAI
BANGKOK
SINGAPORE
JAKARTA
MELBOURNE
HONG KONG
SHANGHAI
TAIPEI
TIANJIN
BEIJING
TOKYO
BAKU
SEOUL
KUALA LUMPUR
HO CHI MINH CITY
DUBLIN
LONDON
BRUSSELS
LUXEMBOURG
AMSTERDAM
PARIS
BARCELONA
MADRID
MILAN
ZAGREB
BUDAPEST
BRATISLAVA VIENNA
BRNO KOSICE
HRADEC KRLOV
OSTRAVA
WARSAW
PRAGUE
PLZE
BELGRADE
BUCHAREST
ISTANBUL
KIEV
MINSK
RIGA
MOSCOW
TASHKENT
NEW YORK
CARACAS
SO PAULO
BUENOS AIRES
SANTIAGO
DE CHILE
PANAMA CITY
ZURICH
2
Equities
EURO STOXX Autos:
Technically ready for take-off
EURO STOXX Automobiles & Parts was experiencing a bear
market trend, the course of which was distorted by temporary
price fuctuation in Volkswagen ordinary shares, and fell to 143
index points. During the frst recovery period, the index freed itself
from its bearish trend and rose to 233. After a brief consolidation
(technical fag below 233) during which the recovery trend was
concluded as well, the index experienced another boost from 193
to 260 in July 2009. We have been seeing a medium-term, volatile,
Large blue-chip indices such as the S&P 00 and the DAX appear, from a technical point
of view, to be stuck in a medium-term, sideways pendulum movement (with positive touch
in some cases). While this is true for selected sector indices as well, eg the STOXX Europe
Telecommunications, which has entered a medium-term stabilisation phase, others, for example
the EURO STOXX Automobiles & Parts, where interest focuses on the resistance below 20, are
about to conclude their sideways movement.
sideways pendular movement that initially appears to have the
character of a moderate downward triangle (lower triangle line
currently at 200), but in the last few weeks has transitioned into
a consolidation below 248. In the wake of this consolidation the
index, which, as an export-led sector is benefting from the recent
weakness of the Euro, was able to build up relative strength
against the STOXX Europe 600. Since the end of February 2010
there has also been an upward trend (trend line currently at 228),
which has taken the future into the tiered resistance between 248
and 260. Therefore it would not be surprising if the index were
to come up with a new buy signal with medium-term potential at
least to test the (next) resistance at 280 to 285.
O N D M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N
200-day
m.a.
2008 2009 2010
B = Buy signal S = Sell signal TP = Take-prot signal
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
New all-time high
TP
425
S
S
VW price
movement
distorted
automobile sector
228
161
405
190
270
S
143
S
S
B
248
233
Recovery
trend
260
TP
193 200
Relative
strength
196
B
Support
262
228
280
Chart1:EUrOSTOxxAutomobiles&Parts
Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
During the frst recovery period,
the index freed itself from its
bearish trend and rose to 233.
AlExANDErKrMEr
TECHNICAL & INDEX ANALYST Equity fash
2
EqUITIES
STOXX Europe
Telecommunications:
Stabilisation above the
200-day line
Following the mini-sell-off, the STOXX Europe Telecommunications
found itself in a technical bottom formation at 202 index points.
Whereas the overall market began to recover as early as March
2009, the sector index followed suit only after a delay and ended
its 10-month bottom formation in July 2009 with a buy signal.
In January 2010 the process of working off the bear market
was aborted at 265 index points. At the same time the sector
developed relative weakness against the STOXX Europe 600. This
is also refected in the fact that the markets rose to new heights
in April 2010, while the sector remained stuck in a sideways
pendulum movement below 265. In May the sector slid below the
200-day line to 224 index points. After this slide, which from a
technical point of view ended in a wedge, not only did the index
lose its relative weakness, it also established a short-term upward
trend which took it back over the 200-day line. This points to a
stabilisation above the 200-day line, with a renewed attempt on
the resistance at 265 being the next item on the technical agenda
in the medium term.
O N D M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N
200-day
m.a.
2008 2009 2010
B = Buy signal S = Sell signal TP = Take-prot signal
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
Bull
market trend
since 03
253
390
S Bear market
trends
TP
S
Mini
sell-off
202
S
251
S
200
Mini
wedge
224
B
207
307
Upchannel
TP
243
265
B
TP
224
Stabilisation
S
Chart2:STOxxEuropeTelecommunications
Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
In May the sector slid below the
200-day line to 224 index points.
Alexander Krmer
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
Equity strategy
GUNNArHAMANN
EqUITY STRATEGIST
2
27
EqUITIES
The expected proft comeback of German
MidCaps looks breathtaking at least when
judged by the latest consensus forecasts
for this year. Operating profts for the
MDAX, the German MidCap index which
includes the largest 50 stocks by market
cap and turnover below the DAX30,
collapsed during 2009. According to an
aggregation of current consensus forecasts
however, MDAX operating profts in 2010
are expected to be close to previous peaks
(see Chart 1).
While several defensives are among those companies for
which forecasts are expected to exceed their recent peaks,
many German cyclical midcap stocks proft levels still remain
substantially below peak levels (see Chart 2). However, one should
not underestimate how quickly earnings expectations could move
higher as restructuring programmes, coupled with a demand
recovery, provide a powerful cocktail for profts. By the time
this article is published, the Q2 reporting season will be in full
swing and further upgrades to 2010 proft estimates, primarily for
midcap German cyclicals, should be well within reach.
While this sounds promising, it is unfortunately the proft
outlook for next year that investors have started worrying about.
This looks understandable on the back of softening economic
indicators in China and the US, and almost synchronised
(though hardly coordinated) austerity programmes in many
European countries that all look clearly growth-negative. Indeed,
it would be hard to reject these concerns from a directional point
of view, and the key question remains as to whether currently
low equity market valuations can buffer potential earnings
downgrades suffciently.
Consequently, we have stress-tested valuation levels of the
German midcap MDAX. Based on current I/B/E/S consensus
estimates for 2010 and 2011, we calculate a fair value for the
MDAX by discounting expected earnings (at the time of writing:
548 for 2010, 719 for 2011) based on a discount rate of 8%,
Concerns in capital markets remain plentiful as leading indicators start rolling-over, fostering
debate about a potential growth slowdown or, worse, a renewed recession. No wonder that
investors are questioning the validity of earnings forecasts in this environment. However, for
German MidCaps, we have stress-tested proft estimates and conclude that the current MDAX
level is justifed even if we were to shave off close to 20% of current earnings expectations.
We still consider many of the cyclical laggards, which have recently shown the strongest
earnings upgrade momentum, to be attractive.
Source: Datastream, Commerzbank Research
Chart1:MDAxconsensusoperatingproftestimates(m)
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Consensus EBIT 2010 as a % o lalesl peak levels belween 2005 and 200I
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
2
Gunnar Hamann
Source: Datastream, I/B/E/S, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Chart5:butledtoacompressionofP/Eratios
DAX 30 vs 12monlh orward P/E
10
12
14
16
18
Aug 02 Nov 02 leb 03 May 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 leb 04 May 04 Aug 04 Nov 04 leb 05
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
DAX30, rhs
Source: Datastream, I/B/E/S, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Chart4:Aroll-overofifoexpectationsdidnotpreventa
furtherriseinforwardearningsexpectations
80
0
100
110
120
130
140
150
Aug 02 Nov 02 leb 03 May 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 leb 04 May 04 Aug 04 Nov 04 leb 05
88
2
6
100
104
DAX30, rhs
Chart6: Evenifforwardearningsstarttoleveloff
Source: Datastream, I/B/E/S, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
leb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 1an 0 Apr 0 1ul 0 Ucl 0 Dec 0 Mar 10 1un 10
Maturity: 5 years
Underlyings: Eurostoxx 50 Index (Bloomberg: SX5E Index) &
Eurostat Euro zone Infation Index (Bloomberg: CPTFEMU Index)
Currency: EUR
Maturity: 5 years
Underlyings: Eurostoxx 50 Index (Bloomberg: SX5E Index) &
Eurostat Euro zone Infation Index (Bloomberg: CPTFEMU Index)
Currency: EUR
Currency: EUR
MaturityBarrier
years 70%
years 0%
years 0%
As long as the underlying equity index does not close below
the barrier at maturity, this product will pay out the higher of
the Eurostoxx 50 Index performance and the infation index
performance. Otherwise, investors are long the equity index.
5yEArINCOMENOTElINKEDTOEqUITy&INFlATION
Maturity: 5 years
Underlyings: Eurostoxx 50 Index (Bloomberg: SX5E Index) &
Eurostat Euro zone infation index (Bloomberg: CPTFEMU Index)
Currency: EUR
EqUITIES
Dr. Oliver Brockhaus
EqUITyANDINFlATIONlINKEDHyBrIDPrODUCTS
Due to the long term nature of infation risk the proposed hybrid
products (see page 30) typically have a maturity of several
years. The products are derivatives on the most liquid and broad
indices capturing stock performance and infation for the Euro
area, namely the Eurostoxx 50E stock index and the Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices HICP.
Infation Linked Bonus
The infation linked bonus product is a standard bonus product
with the additional feature that the investor gains positive
exposure to the infation rate. We compare the product with a
bonus product without infation.
Generally the product behaves like a capital guarantee where the
capital includes twice the infation rate:
If SX5E is above 55% then the investor receives
Views
from the
TradingFloor
OlIVErSUlTAN
EXOTIC EqUITY DERIVATIVES
EqUITIES
ONTHEExOTICMArKETSIDE
During the World Cup and the holiday season, business activity
has globally contracted. Institutional clients keep focusing on
cheap, capital protected structures with potential high income.
Meanwhile, other investors, especially from the Private banking
side, seek the investment opportunities that the volatility peaks
and earning seasons can offer. In these uncertain markets, we
have noticed an increasing demand for simple structures like
the classic reverse convertibles which offer attractive coupons
during periods of high volatility.
In addition, the regulators have begun to implement new rules
on the marketing of exotic fnancial products, and capital
requirements. This is to stabilise and protect the derivatives
investors and market participants, to avoid a situation similar
to the one billion dollar loss suffered on securities backed by
Lehman Brothers. The Securities and Exchange Commission
is probing several fnancial frms on how they market principal
protected notes, while in France, the French regulator AMF
recently released a guide to good marketing practice for
structured notes and certifcates.
Moreover, fears about a double dip recession, a sovereign debt
default in the Euro zone, the new Basel capital rules, and the
health of Europes banks have convinced investors to maintain a
relatively high proportion of their investments in cash. A survey
of UK investors and fund managers last month found they are
holding more cash in their portfolios than at any time since the
aftermath of the Lehman Brother collapse in September 2008.
The Reuters poll showed that cash accounted for 8.7% of their
holdings. The same poll found European investors with a 6.8%
cash holding whereas at the end of last year, those positions
were about 5%. Furthermore, mutual funds and some of our
clients favour more and more the FX as an asset class over
equities or commodities. Despite the FX market high volatility,
its high liquidity is a clear advantage.
STrUCTUrEDPrODUCTISSUED
ANDrECOMMENDED
In Exotic Equity products, we have noticed an increasing
combination of FX with equity underlyings, such as in composite
options where investors can proft from the return of both Equity
and FX asset classes. A cross option, or composite option, is
an option on some underlying in one currency with a strike
denominated in another currency. We have sold some call
composite options on emerging or ETF shares, compo SEK for
instance. In this case, the investor has a bullish view on the
emerging share and bearish on the SEK currency compared to
the US dollar.
Requests on the emerging basket are clearly more heterogeneous.
In the last six months, the focus was on China with the HSCEI Index
and Asian indices. The apprehensions over the Yuan revaluation
and the slowdown of Chinese growth has convinced investors
to look at the Latin American economy (via ETFs) or the Eastern
European indices such as the WIG20 Index (Polish Index) and the
ATX Index (Austrian Index). UK investors have found interests in
the S&P BRIC which represents the four BRIC countries equity
markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China) via long-term Lock-In call
capital protected structure which could draw insurance or pension
fund investors attention. This six year capital protected product
offers a yearly lockin mechanism on 20% steps, capped at 80% at
maturity. The distant cap will make the structure more affordable
and the lockin will capture the early performance of the index.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
SX5E Index
V2X Index
Sx5EIndexV2xIndex
Source: Bloomberg
A survey of UK investors and fund
managers last month found they are
holding more cash in their portfolios
than any time since the aftermath
of Lehman Brother collapse in
September 2008.
that the volatility market tends to stabilise but the Vovol (the
volatility of the implied volatility) remains elevated, fearing that
the market may hide more bad news and therefore will increase
the volatility market. Macro fgures and market data overall
are clearly not leaning towards the end of a crisis. The lack of
confdence, previously mentioned, is a dangerous leverage as
it usually comes with an extreme lack of liquidity. That could
impact the equity derivatives market in the comings weeks.
For additional information on the product features and key risks, please contact your sales advisor or refer to the contacts on page .
3 Year Phoenix Autocall on
German Equities
Key features
0% European Barrier
Annual Observations
EUR Currency
HOWTHISPrODUCTWOrKS
This product would suit an investor with a view that German
equities will enter a phase of little price appreciation.
On each annual observation date N (except at maturity), if all of
the shares close above 100% then the product is called and the
investor receives 110%. If all of the shares close above 60%
then the investor receives 10% coupon. Otherwise, no payment
is made at this stage.
At maturity, if the product hasnt been called previously, if all of
the shares close above 100% then the investor receives 110%.
If all of the shares close above 60% then the investor receives
100%. Otherwise, the client receives the worst performing share.
Underlyings: BloombergTicker
Adidas-Salomon
Siemens
Deutsche Telekom
ADS GY Equity
SIE GY Equity
DTE GY Equity
BENEFITS
Analysts are increasingly guarded about the prospects for the
German economy. This is apparent from the ZEW Index, which
fell in July from 28.7 to 21.2. At the same time the current
situation is predominantly described as good, for the frst time in
two years. Over the coming months the ZEW Index is likely to fall
further, thus signalling a slower pace for the economy. However,
this certainly does not mean the recovery is over. The debt
crisis in the Eurozone, growing fears of a double dip in the
USA: There are several reasons why analysts are currently less
confdent about Germanys economic prospects than they were
a few months ago. At any rate the ZEW Index fell further in July.
At 21.2 it was even lower than generally expected (Commerzbank
forecast: 20.0; consensus: 25.3). However, another reason could
be that the analysts take an increasingly positive view of the
current situation, as there are growing signs that the German
economy achieved very powerful growth in the 2nd quarter.
For the frst time since July 2008 more analysts described the
situation as good (24.7%) than as bad (10.1%), for which reason
the relevant component of the index jumped to 14.6, taking it
back into positive territory. In the past, such a turnaround in the
situation assessment has usually been followed by a signifcation
deterioration of expectations in the months thereafter, as the
analysts doubted that the good performance would continue. The
ZEW is thus likely to fall further in the coming months. This time
as well, the Germany economy is unlikely to sustain the growth
rate of up to 1.5% quarter-on-quarter which is now emerging for
the 2nd quarter. Signifcantly lower momentum can be expected
in the second half of the year, if only because the construction
sector made a strong recovery in Q2 after the hard winter.
However, and despite increasingly restrictive fscal policies in
the Eurozone, this does not mean the recovery is over. After all,
monetary policy remains highly expansionary and the buoyant
world economy and the weak euro should allow foreign demand
for German products to go on rising.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
EqUITIES
has sections on the fgures we have discussed, although it is
highly technical in places.
KEy:
Callprice: Call price of the option today
Shareprice: Price of the share today
Strike: Strike price of the underlying
Volatility: Volatility of the underlying share
(assumed to be a constant in years)
Time: Time to maturity in years
Interest: Risk free interest rate.
This article is dedicated to another aspect of the famous Black & Scholes model. This
time we look in detail at another parameter which measures the effect of volatility on
the value of a option. This parameter, commonly known as vega, is occasionally also
referred to by the name of the Greek letter kappa.
So what is Vega?
0 ) (
1
=
= d N Time Shareprice
Volatility
Callprice
Vega
Call
) ( ) ( exp
1 2
) * (
d N Shareprice d N Strike Vega
Time Interest
Put
=
Time Volatility
Time
Volatility
Interest
Strike
Shareprice
d where
+ +
=
2
ln
:
2
1
and declines as the options remaining time to expiry shortens.
Do not let yourself be fooled, though, by a low vega, especially
in the case of options that are deep out of the money, as the vega
represents an absolute amount, ie a value in euros. The volatility
can often be seen to have a greater relative effect especially
on options that are deep out of the money than the price of the
underlying security itself.
In one of the forthcoming articles, readers can fnd out why
investors are concerned with the change in the option value as
a function of volatility, when the Black & Scholes model actually
assumes constant volatility. Also, different implied volatilities can
be observed for options with different strike prices and the same
time to expiry, a phenomenon known as the volatility smile.
Until then, the option calculator on our derivatives website provides
an opportunity to simulate the effect of volatility on your own option,
and learn to interpret the vega in a risk-free environment.
The Bible of option valuation is Options, Futures and Other
Derivatives by John C. Hull, which, along with many other topics,
40
Commodities
Commodity spotlight Commodity spotlight
Demand for deliveries of copper from the warehouses of the
London Metal Exchange (LME) is currently on the increase.
LME copper stocks have now fallen by more than 21% from
their 6.5 year high of mid-February to 435,000 tonnes. In
the week to 24 June, copper stocks in the warehouses of the
Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9% the steepest fall for
11 months and are now back to their mid-February level.
They are already 38% down from their record high at the end
of April. Stocks remain high only on the New York commodity
futures exchange COMEX, where they currently stand at just
under 102,000 tonnes (see Chart 1). However, COMEX hast lost
importance compared with the other exchanges.
At the same time the number of cancelled warrants on the
LME is rising. Cancelled warrants are an indication of how
much material is required for delivery from the warehouses.
At approximately 27,000 tonnes, cancelled warrants are
equivalent to more than 6% of total LME stockpiles. For
comparison: at the end of last year cancelled warrants fell to a
low of just 675 tonnes. Although cancelled warrants are normally
regarded as an indicator of demand, they merely show what is
about to fow out of the warehouses. Infows on the other hand
are disregarded. Nor do these statistics take account of stocks
outside the exchange-registered warehouses. The forward
cover of aggregate copper stocks on the London, Shanghai and
New York exchanges (ratio of stockpiles to global demand),
based on average consumption in 2009, currently stands at a
relatively high 0.5 months. Between 2005 and 2008 this stood
at 3-6 days, or even less in some cases.
Apart from the destocking which has now begun, other factors
such as low processing fees also point to a tighter supply.
In negotiations with Asian smelters, the worlds largest mining
company BHP Billiton recently secured signifcant reductions in
copper smelting and refning fees. These have now fallen to their
lowest level since 1973 (USD39 per mt for smelting and 3.9 US
cents per lb for refning). The low fees paid by mining companies
to smelters for processing their material point to a short supply
of copper concentrate. Zinc and lead processing fees have also
fallen a good deal recently.
A destocking tendency is also apparent in the case of aluminium.
Admittedly, at around 496,000 tonnes, stocks in the warehouses
of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remain close to their record
high, but on the LME stocks are already falling steadily. From
their all-time high in January they have so far dropped by
5.4% or 251,000 tonnes, and the fall has recently gathered
momentum. The number of cancelled warrants on the LME
points to a further decline in stocks. Cancelled warrants have
recently risen to over 276,000 tonnes, corresponding to 6.3%
of total LME aluminium stocks (see Chart 3). However, a large
proportion of exchange-registered aluminium stocks is still tied
eUGeNe weINBeRG
HEAD OF COMMODITY RESEARCH
A few weeks ago most of the metal markets entered a destocking phase which has recently
accelerated. In particular, stockpiles of copper, nickel and tin have declined considerably.
At the same time the number of cancelled warrants has risen. Yet the expected price surge
has so far failed to materialise, as the situation is currently dominated by overriding factors.
Destocking provides little uplift for metal prices
41
COMMODITIES
up in fnancial transactions and is therefore not available to the
market. According to estimates by the research consultancy CRU,
these still account for 60-70% of total LME stocks. For about the
last year, the forward cover of aluminium stocks on the London
and Shanghai exchanges has settled at around 1.5 months. In
previous years the fgure was usually between 0.2 and 0.5 months.
The forward cover of available stocks is likewise of this order.
As the aluminium price has fallen over the year so far, aluminium
production has become unproftable for many producers. China in
particular produces at relatively high cost. According to CRU the
breakeven point is around USD2,200 per tonne. The research
consultancy CBI China estimates that the Chinese aluminium
producers are currently losing an average of RMB 1,000 or around
USD150 on every tonne. Local aluminium smelters have therefore
already announced they are curtailing production. In Henan
Province, the countrys largest aluminium producing region,
capacity is to be cut by 700,000 tonnes, equivalent to 5% of
Chinas total production. This points to a further reduction in stocks.
In the case of nickel, destocking has been even more pronounced
than for copper in recent months. From their record high at the
beginning of February, stocks on the LME have fallen by 28% to
just over 120,000 tonnes which is equal to their October 2009 level.
As with the other metals, destocking has been accompanied by an
increase in cancelled warrants. Since mid-June these have risen
to their highest level in 6.5 years. Now standing at 5,300 tonnes
they are equivalent to 4.4% of total stocks. This is mainly thanks to
the revival of the stainless steel industry, which is currently in the
process of rebuilding its stockpiles which were sharply reduced in
the wake of the economic crisis. According to estimates by CRU,
global stainless steel production should increase by 15% this
year to 29 million tonnes. However, stainless steel producers have
recently reported that clients are postponing their orders, so that
impetus from this quarter could ease off. Also, the ending of the
year-long strike in Vales Canadian nickel mines could at least slow
down the destocking process due to higher production in the future.
After all, these mines account for around 10% of global nickel
production. The worlds second largest nickel producer, it has just
negotiated a new contract with the unions.
Stockpiles of tin have also been signifcantly reduced in recent
times. In the last fve months alone they have fallen by 41%
or 11,600 tonnes. At 16,400 tonnes they are now back where
they were 12 months ago. Cancelled warrants now account for
approximately 7% of total stocks.
In the case of zinc and lead the situation is rather different.
For both these metals the number of cancelled warrants has
increased, but, in contrast to copper, aluminium, nickel and tin,
stockpiles are as high as ever. LME warehouses are still holding
around 190,000 tonnes of lead the highest level since October
2002. At 616,000 tonnes, LME zinc stocks remain at a fve year high,
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
J
a
n
0
7
J
u
l
0
7
J
a
n
0
8
J
u
l
0
8
J
a
n
0
9
J
u
l
0
9
J
a
n
1
0
J
u
l
1
0
'000 mt
COMEX LME SHFE
Chart 1: Signifcant decline in copper stocks
Source: LME, SHFE, COMEX, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
'000 mt
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
LME Inventories, ls
Copper (USD/mt), rs
Chart 2: Recent de-coupling of copper price and stockpiles
Source: LME, SHFE, COMEX, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10
'000 mt
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Cancelled Warrants, ls
Aluminium (USD/mt), rs
Chart 3: Rise in cancelled warrants (LMe) points to further
destocking of aluminium
Source: LME, SHFE, COMEX, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
42
while the warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange have
around 250,000 tonnes, not far off the recent record.
While the destocking of zinc has yet to begin, steel production
has recently expanded signifcantly. Zinc is mainly used in the
galvanisation of steel. According to data of the World Steel
Association global steel production rose in May to a new all-time
high of 124 million tonnes (see Chart 4). China in particular
contributed to this rise thanks to record production. However,
this has led to a supply surplus in the worldwide steel market,
which could amount to 300 million tonnes this year according
to estimates of the World Steel Association. Moreover, steel
demand currently shows weaknesses: less steel is being ordered
particularly in China (and by the Chinese automotive industry).
For that reason the countrys second largest steel manufacturer,
Baosteel, has already announced that it is cutting both capacities
and prices in the current quarter. In addition, the company
is scaling back its medium-term expansion plans, thereby
complying with the request of the Chinese government to reduce
overcapacity. This is expected to result in weaker demand for
zinc which should, at least in the short term, prevent destocking
of this industrial metal.
However, a reduction of stockpiles or a rise in cancelled warrants
does not necessarily lead to higher metal prices. In fact, in the
past year and during the last few months of the current year the
opposite has proved to be the case: the sharp price rise in 2009
copper went up by 140% was accompanied by a signifcant rise
in stockpiles. During the same period stocks in LME warehouses
increased by 50%. The same phenomenon has been observed since
mid-February, but in the other direction: while copper stocks fell by
21%, the copper price dropped by 11% (see Chart 2). The same is
true, though to a lesser extent, for the other metals.
Metal prices currently seem to be infuenced more by other
determinants. Above all, concerns about the vigour of the global
economic recovery, particularly in China, currently dominate the
picture and tend to eclipse the recent fairly positive data. This
is refected, for example, in the Baltic Dry Index. This tracks
shipping prices of dry bulk cargoes on 22 shipping routes, and
since the end of May has fallen by 56% to its lowest level since
the beginning of May 2009 (see Chart 5). Above all a decline in
volumes of iron ore and coal shipped between Brazil and China
has contributed to this development and at the same time refects
a drop in Chinas import momentum.
The destocking observed in the last few months and the
other positive fundamental data are clearly unable to give any
signifcant uplift to metal prices. Market players currently seem
to be paying more attention to the wider economic landscape,
where clouds have recently gathered on the horizon. We think
this may be standing in the way of a signifcant rise in metal
prices for the time being.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Apr 08 Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10
million mt
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Global Steel Production, ls
Swap rate
Chart 2: eU Infation and swap curves
Source: Bloomberg
47
COMMODITIES
it provides an implicit protection on the downside. In a previous
article (July 2010) we showed that historically, commodity prices
decline in an environment of high volatility in these cases,
exposure to the index is lower.
Chart 3 and Table 2 show how an exposure of 25% of a Notional
Amount to the CB RiskEffcient Infation Index has tracked the
infation for 100% of the same notional. (represented by HICP
Eurozone Index). The excess volatility compensates the reduced
cost of hedging. The dynamic adjustment feature increases the
probability that deviations from the price index are mainly on
the upside.
hOT PRODUCT: CaPITaL GUaRaNTeeD COMMODITy
INFLaTION heDGe
Mainfeatures
England to score more than 10 goals in the whole tournament (2/1) Lost
Over 12 corners in the England versus Algeria game (2/1) won 13 Corners
More than two hat-tricks in the tournament (2/1) Lost David villa missing against honduras costing dear
Overall result Two singles and a double
= 30 + 30 + 90 = 150
Total Loss (160 = 310 - 150)
suggest combining the two, which does not address the situation
satisfactorily, why hold the Tortoise if the Hare does go the full
distance? Others will suggest bringing more contestants in to the race!
I would suggest going further and introducing dynamic
management based on risk indicators. I as a consumer do not
want a Tortoise fund or Hare fund, I want a real Absolute Return
Fund. I want a manager with a full array of asset classes (I will
spare trying to anthropomorphise any further animals so they
characterise the human attitudes to risk). In my fable I want
the race to be monitored, I want to be with the Hare, until or
shortly before he stops, and then swap him with the Tortoise.
When the Hare wakes, I want him to replace the Tortoise again.
Better still I want an alternative to the Tortoise and to only rely
on the Tortoise in extremes. In choosing this manager I want to
see a track record of monitoring the Hare, using indicators to
show when confdence is going to get the better of him. I want
included those other animals that are relatively faster than the
Tortoise but more reliable than the Hare. I want to get to the
end of the race as quickly as possible while avoiding any risk of
retrenchment. This is the challenge I want the asset management
industry to deliver.
On balance, I have to forget how fast the Hare can run because
he may not arrive and I have to accept that sometimes my best
bet is the Tortoise. I want the race to be concluded faster than
the Tortoise can achieve and I want to give that mandate to
someone who can deliver it!
In future articles we will look closely at Absolute Return
strategies, the challenges, the failures and the successes.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
50
New ETF in the fund universe:
NYSE Arca Gold BUGS
TM
Index
DaNIeL BRISeMaNN
COMMODITY RESEARCH
51
FUNDS PLATFORM
Fund universe: The ComStage eTF on the NySe arca
Gold BUGS
TM
Index (SIN eTF 091) gives investors
the opportunity to participate in the performance of
companies involved in gold mining, and hence in the
rising price of gold.
There are various advantages to investing in the index as
opposed to a direct investment in gold, including: the leverage
effect of the companies due to high mining costs, independence
from purely speculative gold futures investors, the central banks,
combined with the ease of investing in a share index compared
with gold derivatives.
Composition of NySe arca Gold BUGS
TM
Index versus
Philadelphia Stock exchange Gold and Silver
NySe arca Gold BUGS
TM
Index
Goldcorp Inc. 15.27%
Barrick Gold Corp. 14.77%
Newmont Mining Corp. 9.92%
Eldorado Gold Corp. 5.68%
Randgold Resources Ltd. 5.13%
Cia de Minas Buenaventura SA 4.99%
Iamgold Corp. 4.97%
Lihir Gold Ltd. 4.91%
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. 4.68%
Gold Fields Ltd. 4.64%
Yaman Gold Inc. 4.46%
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. 4.33%
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. 4.30%
Kinross Gold Corp. 4.06%
Hecla Mining Co. 3.96%
Coeur dAlene Mines Corp. 3.93%
Philadelphia Stock exchange Gold &
Silver Index
Barrick Gold Corp. 19.30%
Goldcorp Inc. 14.66%
Freeport McMoRan Copper &
Gold Inc. 12.82%
Newmont Mining Corp. 12.30%
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. 7.15%
Kinross Gold Corp. 5.56%
Gold Fields Ltd. 4.40%
Cia de Minas Buenaventura SA 4.38%
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. 4.28%
Randgold Resources Ltd. 3.68%
Yaman Gold Inc. 3.65%
Silver Wheaton Corp. 2.94%
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. 1.92%
Pan American Silver Corp. 1.22%
Royal Gold Inc. 1.10%
Silver Standard Resources Inc. 0.64%
As at May 2010; Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
The index was launched on 15 March 1996 and includes the 16
largest gold mining companies trading in the US. The companies
in the index must not hedge their gold production beyond 18
months. The index was originally designed to offer equity investors
the opportunity to participate in short-term changes in the price of
gold, as no gold ETFs or similar derivatives were yet available at
the time of the index launch. The index has proved popular with
investors over the last few years and has now become the best-
known gold mining share index in the world. This is due in part to
its very good price performance since 2000: the NYSE Arca Gold
BUGS
TM
Index has risen by 420% since the beginning of 2000,
whereas the S&P 500 share index has shed nearly 25% of its value
over the same period. The performance of the NYSE Arca Gold
BUGS
TM
Index is closely linked to the price of gold, as refected
by the high correlation (see Chart 1). The gold mining shares
contained in the index can be seen as a substitute warrant with a
strike price equivalent to production costs. Investors can therefore
proft disproportionately from the rising gold price. The NYSE
Arca Gold BUGS
TM
Index also gained disproportionately compared
with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index. This
share index, which is also very well known, includes the top gold
and silver mining companies that are traded in the US, and which
also partially hedge their gold production. The composition and
weighting of the two indices are shown in the table.
Gold and gold mining shares specifcally, and precious metals
generally can provide rewarding opportunities, including as part of
a portfolio, due to their low correlation with other asset classes. The
GSCI Precious Metals Index, for example, has a maximum correlation
of 0.5 to the worlds most famous equity indices. The correlation to most
government bonds, bond indices and currencies is much lower, and
in many cases negative, which suggests a high diversifcation effect.
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
52
why wILL The PRICe OF GOLD CONTINUe TO RISe?
Despite the appreciation of the US dollar on a wide front, the
price of gold hit a new record high of nearly USD 1,264 per troy
ounce in June. Gold also reached new record levels in other
currencies such as Euros, British Pounds and Swiss Francs (see
Chart 2). Its price performance in euros is particularly striking:
in the frst quarter, gold still cost an average of EUR800 per
troy ounce, but by the end of May its price had gone as high
as EUR1,060. Gold is benefting from its role as a safe-haven
investment. On this occasion it is the fear of a widening of the
debt crisis in the eurozone which is driving investors to the
yellow metal. Investors need for added security is refected,
among other things, in signifcant fows of funds into ETFs.
The worlds largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported an
increase of more than 100 tons in its gold holdings in May, with
an increase of as much as 30 tons in a single day.
The fund has now amassed nearly 1,290 tons of gold (see
Chart 3). Other ETF providers such as ETF Securities have also
reported large infows recently. Much of this capital is likely to stay
put, we believe. Demand for gold coins has also rocketed again in the
last few weeks.
The bailouts agreed by the EU and the IMF look set to boost
demand for gold still further, the reason being that the billions
in loan guarantees are likely to increase the infation risk in the
medium to long term. Speculative fnancial investors, too, are
continuing to bet on rising gold prices. Net long positions have
now increased to over 200,000 contracts, only just below the
record high of last October.
The price is receiving an additional undercurrent of support from
supply-side factors: according to the World Gold Council, the
European central banks that are party to the Central Bank Gold
Agreement (CBGA) sold less than 2 tons of gold in the frst six
months of the current contractual year. A further 24 tons were
sold on the market by the IMF. Therefore last years sales volume
of 150 tons will probably only be matched if the IMF is able to
sell on-market most of the remaining nearly 170 tons that are
still for sale by the end of September. This would appear to be
unlikely to materialise. Sales are certainly likely to fall well short
of the ceiling of 400 tons set by the CBGA again this year.
We are expecting the price of gold to continue rising. However,
there is likely to be a fall in the price at some point, when
investment demand loses momentum. The high price level is likely
to take its toll on demand for jewellery, as is shown by the latest
data on Indian gold imports, and result in a further rise in the
supply of scrap gold. Next year we are likely to see a sustained
rise in the price of gold to over USD 1,300 per troy ounce.
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.
1.0
16 17 18 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 2010
Chart 1: Correlation NySe arca Gold BUGS Index and gold
(52 week correlation of weekly performance)
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
800
00
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
Apr 0 1un 0 Aug 0 Ucl 0 Dec 0 leb 10 Apr 10 1un 10
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
00
50
1,000
1,050
per lroy ounce
n USD, lel
n CHl, lel
n EUR, rghl
n CBP, rghl
Chart 2: Gold price development
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1.4 8.4 15.4 22.4 2.4 6.5 13.5 20.5 27.5 3.6 10.6 17.6 24.6 1.7 8.7 15.7
Chart 3: Gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust in metric tons
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Name Underlying index SIN Flat fee Fund currency
ComStage ETF NYSE Arca Gold
BUGS
TM
ETF 091 0.65% pa US dollars
53
FUNDS PLATFORM
Type Fund Name Bloomberg Inception
auM
(Mn)
Infows
over last
quarter Perf 2009 Perf yTD
annual
Return
since
Inception
eQUITy
Balanced / Diversifed Carmignac Patrimoine CARMPAT FP Oct 1989 25,428 5,088 17.6% 7.5% 9.7%
BlackRock Global Allocation Fund MERGAAI LX Jan 1997 13,356 -664 22.2% -4.8% 7.3%
Allianz RCM Oriental Income ALORIAA LX Dec 2005 448 -22 41.6% -8.3% 3.2%
Global Equities Carmignac Investissement CARINVT FP Jan 1989 8,001 751 42.6% 6.9% 11.6%
j.P. Morgan Global Focus Fund FLGLRVA LX Dec 2006 1,028 295 62.6% -8.7% -4.1%
SocGen International SOCGISD LX Aug 1996 814 24 20.4% -1.1% 10.7%
DWS Akkumula AKKMULA GR Jul 1961 3,251 -479 27.9% -4.1% 6.0%
UniGlobal UNIGLOB GR Jan 1960 5,610 130 30.8% 3.2% 0.0%
US Equity Allianz RCM US Equity DITUSIT ID Oct 2006 2,328 28 46.9% -7.8% -2.1%
Schroder US Small & Mid-Cap Equity SCHUMAA LX Dec 2004 2,020 280 35.8% -4.9% 4.1%
BlackRock US Flexible Equity Fund MLFLEUA LX Oct 2002 2,088 -212 23.4% -6.9% 4.1%
Robeco US Premium Equities RGCUPUD LX Oct 2005 2,782 852 32.7% -7.0% 0.2%
Europe Allianz RCM Wachstum Europa DITWEUR GR Jan 1997 755 -35 50.4% 9.5% 5.6%
BlackRock European Equity MEREUDE LX May 2006 2,610 160 39.7% -2.1% -0.3%
UniFonds (focus Germany) UNIFNDS GR Apr 1956 2,100 -100 22.5% -0.3% 2.6%
Japan Invesco Japanese Equity Core Fund INVJPCA ID Mar 1994 741 -29 36.4% -4.0% 0.1%
Emerging Markets HSBC BRIC Freestyle HSBRIM2 LX Apr 2005 1,751 -269 109.1% -7.1% 15.6%
Franklin Templeton BRIC Fund TEMBRAC LX Oct 2005 2,674 -336 89.1% -12.2% 10.0%
Templeton Emerging Markets TEMEMXA LX Apr 2000 1,007 -153 70.7% -9.9% 5.9%
Schroder ISF Emerging Markets SCHIMAI LX Mar 1994 2,009 119 74.3% -9.5% 4.7%
Comgest Magellan MAGLNSV FP Mar 1988 4,066 216 57.7% 9.3% 7.1%
Baring Global Emerging Markets Fund BRGGEMI ID Feb 1992 1,655 35 78.1% -5.6% 6.4%
Templeton Frontier Markets Fund TEMFMAU LX Oct 2008 299 255 51.0% 1.6% 25.5%
Fund Watchlist
Over the last quarter, the fnancial markets have been volatile.
This has been refected by the disparate performance and asset
fows within the fund industry.
The strongest performing funds were the BlackRock World Gold
and Schroder Asian bond. Fixed income funds were fat, while
on the whole, equity linked funds suffered, mainly emerging
markets, US equities and some Thematic funds like mining,
energy and private equity.
The infows have been really signifcant in Global Bond, Balanced
and Emerging Market Debt. Global and US equities also had
some positive infows, following a return from investors towards
more risky assets.
Here is a list of funds that we recommend for the 3rd quarter.
For investors who are keen to have protection against the
possibility of rising infation in the near future, we can propose
solutions linked to Infation linked bond funds, as well as
Gold Funds.
XavIeR BURKhaRDT
FUND DERIVATIVES STRUCTURER
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
54
Type Fund Name Bloomberg Inception
auM
(Mn)
Infows
over last
quarter Perf 2009 Perf yTD
annual
Return
since
Inception
EM Small Cap Templeton Emerging Markets Small-cap TEMCACU LX Oct 2007 259 -11 86.7% 1.8% -11.7%
j.P. Morgan emerging Markets Small
Cap
JPMEMSA LX Nov 2007 212 148.0% -0.7% -3.2%
Asia Templeton Asian Growth Fund TEMFRBX LX Sep 2002 9,715 -305 102.1% 0.6% 18.6%
Baring Hong Kong China Fund BRGHKGI ID Jan 1994 4,433 -757 63.5% -9.9% 11.3%
HSBC India HSBCINE LX May 2003 6,505 -375 130.4% 0.0% 29.9%
Franklin Templeton Korea Fund TEMKORI LX May 1995 88 -12 67.1% -15.4% -4.3%
J.P. Morgan Singapore Fund FLEFSGA LX May 2001 175 -15 78.5% -0.2% 15.5%
J.P. Morgan Taiwan Fund FLEFTWA LX May 2001 339 -141 57.6% -14.4% -1.6%
Fortis Equity Indonesia FOREINI LX Mar 2007 122 32 149.8% 15.6% 20.4%
Franklin Templeton Thailand TEMTHAI LX Jun 2007 142 2 76.6% 5.4% 0.9%
Latam BlackRock Latin America Fund MERLTAI LX Aug 1997 6,221 -549 120.7% -9.5% 11.1%
HSBC Brazil HSBBRAZ LX Sep 2004 2,068 -402 156.5% -10.2% 22.1%
Russia J.P. Morgan Russia Fund JPMRUSS LX Nov 2005 2,036 -694 191.4% -4.8% 3.9%
east Capital Russian Fund ECRFAUS LX Jan 2007 110 141.0% -2.1% -7.9%
Mena Ocean Fund Equities MENA Opportunities OCEANMA LX Jun 2007 238 -42 23.6% -0.1% -9.6%
Themes Pictet Clean Energy PFLCLNP LX May 2007 616 -124 47.2% -17.9% -10.5%
Sarasin New Energy Fund SARENER LX Apr 2000 146 -14 17.6% -10.5% -5.4%
SAM Sustainable Water Fund JBSAMSW LX Sep 2001 1,143 -177 33.8% 5.0% 4.1%
Allianz RCM Global EcoTrends DITGETA LX May 2006 307 -63 18.8% -6.0% -6.5%
Invesco Asia Infrastructure INVAIAA LX Mar 2006 2,548 -422 47.8% -7.7% 4.7%
Credit Suisse Infrastructure Fund CSEFINB LX Jun 2007 588 -102 52.1% -2.0% -12.5%
Pictet Timber PFLTMPC LX Sep 2008 94 4 58.1% -7.7% -0.4%
Henderson Horizon Global Technology HENGLTI LX Oct 1996 1,167 167 60.3% -8.2% 7.8%
Partners Group Invest Listed Private Equity PGILPQD LX Sep 2004 155 5 38.5% -6.7% -4.9%
Equity Income DWS Top Dividende DWSTOPD GR Apr 2003 4,443 -87 24.9% 5.9% 5.8%
DWS Invest Top Dividend Europe DWSEDLC LX Aug 2004 372 -68 25.0% -5.1% 0.8%
j.P. Morgan europe Strategic Dividend
Fund
JPMEUAA LX Feb 2005 395 154 40.4% -1.9% 1.9%
Ethical & Sustainable Carnegie worldwide ethical CARETHI LX Dec 2000 381 20.5% 7.7% -1.0%
Pictet european Sustainable equities PTFSEER LX Sep 2002 81 31.0% -0.5% 3.4%
Property Securities Morgan Stanley Asian Property Fund MORAPAI LX Sept 1997 678 -162 42.9% -8.8% 2.3%
Schroder ISF Global Property Securities SCHGPSA LX Oct 2005 384 -6 40.0% -6.5% -1.3%
Fortis Real Estate Securities Europe FORRECC LX Oct 2002 493 -7 52.8% -6.8% 4.0%
iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate Index Fund IYR US Jun 2000 2,728 -73 23.3% 2.8% 3.0%
55
FUNDS PLATFORM
Type Fund Name Bloomberg Inception
auM
(Mn)
Infows
over last
quarter Perf 2009 Perf yTD
annual
Return
since
Inception
FIXeD INCOMe
Global Bond Pimco Total Return Bond Fund PIMTRII ID Jan 1999 13,830 1,500 12.1% 4.8% 6.2%
Franklin Global Bond Fund FTGBFAC LX Apr 2006 25,230 3,680 18.8% 3.2% 10.8%
Pimco Diversifed Income PGDIFIA ID Jun 2005 917 -23 26.9% 6.1% 7.3%
DWS Invest Diversifed Fixed Income
Strategy
DWDFXNC LX Jul 2008 109 -51 9.6% -1.7% 3.7%
Corporate Bond BlueBay Investment Grade Bond Fund BBGRABF LX Dec 2004 11,622 452 20.0% 2.6% 5.4%
Schroder ISF Euro Corporate Bond Fund SCHEHIA LX Jun 2000 5,622 -108 16.3% 0.8% 4.5%
Pimco Investment Grade Credit Fund PIMGIIA ID Sep 2003 6,416 -14 19.7% 5.1% 5.5%
BlueBay High Yield Bond Fund BBYHYBF LX Sep 2002 2,697 217 50.4% 4.0% 11.9%
Emerging Markets
Debt
Pimco Emerging Markets Bond PIMEMBI ID Jul 2001 2,603 -907 28.1% 5.3% 12.8%
Templeton Emerging Markets Bond TEMEMFI LX Jul 1991 3,814 624 39.7% 0.6% 3.4%
Schroder Emerging Markets Debt SCHEDAA LX Jan 2000 7,147 597 17.4% 0.4% 8.7%
Bluebay Emerging Market Local Currency
Bond
BLEMLCB LX Dec 2005 1,500 390 29.8% 3.8% 8.8%
Pictet Emerging Local Currency Debt PFEMGDR LX Jun 2006 6,861 2,271 19.7% 2.9% 12.1%
Schroder Asian Bond SCHABDA LX Oct 1998 1,413 13 3.5% 6.6% 6.5%
Infation Linked Bond Schroder ISF Global Infation linked Bond SCHGRRB LX Nov 2003 443 73 6.1% 2.1% 2.7%
PIMCO Global Real Return Fund PIMGRAI ID Sep 2003 1,466 106 15.0% 4.5% 5.5%
Convertible Bond J.P. Morgan Global Convertibles FFGCVBA LX May 2001 2,838 -932 28.5% -4.2% -0.2%
Type Fund Name Bloomberg Inception
auM
(Mn)
Infows
over last
quarter Perf 2009 Perf yTD
annual
Return
since
Inception
COMMODITy
Commodity-physical Diapason RICI Fund DIAPASC KY Jan 2005 950 24.0% -10.5% -0.5%
Commodity-equities J.P. Morgan Global Natural Resources FLEGNRE LX Dec 2004 1,913 193 111.4% 9.6% 12.5%
Carmignac Commodities CARCOMM LX Mar 2003 1,128 158 70.3% 2.1% 15.9%
Allianz RCM Rohstoffonds DTROHST GR Jul 1983 1,068 48 102.9% -2.0% 5.3%
BlackRock World Gold Fund MIGGMFI LX Dec 1994 6,892 12 48.5% 7.7% 11.5%
BlackRock World Mining Fund MIGWMFA LX Mar 1997 13,015 -915 103.9% -13.6% 13.5%
BlackRock World Energy Fund MERENER LX Apr 2001 3,736 -404 36.3% -15.0% 7.3%
DWS Invest Global Agribusiness DWSAGLC LX Sep 2006 762 -58 72.7% -12.3% 1.8%
Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Note: New funds listed are in bold
56
Indices
The Enhanced Value Strategy
aLICIa KeRBRaT
INDICES & STRATEGIES STRUCTURER
The enhanced value Strategy aims to outperform
a reference index in both bullish and bearish
environments. It achieves this by following a systematic
set of rules and combining two simple strategies:
selecting stocks with high dividend yield and then
applying the volatility Control Mechanism. This
combination enhances the risk-adjusted return over the
long-term. The enhanced value Strategy can be applied
to a wide range of indices.
Research suggests that stocks with high dividend yields tend to
outperform low yield stocks as they are likely to be undervalued,
their dividend being high, relative to their stock price.
However, these value stocks suffer from sell offs in the market
and empirical evidence suggests these stocks will also have
an associated higher volatility. The negative effect of higher
volatility can be reduced by applying the Volatility Control
Mechanism, allowing the strategy to beneft from the expected
outperformance with lower overall risk.
The Enhanced Value Strategy is a two stage procedure.
First, an equity sub-index is created using systematic rules to
select the liquid stocks with the highest dividend yield.
Then the Volatility Control Mechanism determines a risk
controlled exposure to the equity sub-index. This mechanism is
described in my previous article Volatility Control Index Family
available in Thinking Ahead June 2010.
57
INDICES
Alicia Kerbrat
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Reerence Index
Equly subndex
Reerence Index
Equly subndex
M1 Y/Y lSI
USDCNY RSI
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2006 2007 2008 200 2010
USDbnI USDCNYI
6.0
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8.5
.0
Chart 4: The PBoC is restricted in its ability to raise interest
rates due to the CNy regime
Source: CEIC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
63
Growth vs. Infation
SaN TaM
EXOTIC EQUITY DERIVATIVES STRUCTURER, ASIA
The Chinese economy is currently in a short period of High Growth; Low Infation mode.
Some are expecting it to move towards a Low Growth; High Infation phase. However, fgures
show that the economy remains very healthy and infation is steadily going up, under the close
scrutiny of the Central Government. With its strong export and solid consumption growth, the
general public is optimistic about the Chinese economy and it is expected to maintain a high
growth rate.
According to the China Quarterly Update, released in June 2010
by the World Bank, Chinas economy has continued to grow
robustly. Infation has picked up but core infation remains
low. However, soaring property prices triggered tough
property-specifc measures and the pressure of increasing wages
may lead to an upward trend in infation and slow down the
economy. Even though some signs of softening have appeared,
the economic outlook remains favourable. The GDP growth rates
estimated by the World Bank were 9.5% in 2010 and 8.5%
in 2011.
It is diffcult to analyse the Chinese economy as some fgures
show the economy is healthy and booming while, on the
other hand, some economic data show it is slowing down.
For example, the PMI in June 2010 dropped from 53.9 in May to
52.1 which suggests the manufacturing economy is shrinking.
However, the export fgure in June 2010 just reached a record
high of USD137.4bn and the China Shipping Container Lines
recently indicated an increase in fees because of the shortage
of cargoes. All this shows the economy is booming rapidly. One
of the explanations to this dilemma is that the raw materials
shipment is shrinking while the export shipment remains strong.
One of the major factors that affects the Chinese economy
is the infation trend. Infation on consumables has gone up
because of the higher prices of food but core infation is likely
to remain contained. The expansionary monetary stance since
the Financial Crisis has increased the infation expectations.
High-food prices and rental charges are exerting some upward
price pressure. However, through the absence of upward
pressure on commodity and food prices on the global scale,
the high food prices in China are not likely to be sustained.
Also, the increase in wages at the lower end of the income
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Chart 1: China GDP Constant Price year on year
Source: Bloomberg
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Chart 2: China export Trade
Source: Bloomberg
THINKING AHEAD, AUGUST 2010 | ISSUE 17
64
distribution may also affect infation. However, given the
fexibility and track record of Chinas overall manufacturing
sector in absorbing wage increases and keeping unit labour cost
growth down, the rise in wages is unlikely to set in motion a
wage-infation spiral.
Household Consumption growth has remained solid in line
with a favourable labour market. A strong labour market since
2009 has partly fueled the recovery of consumer confdence
and caused the continued consumer spending growth.
Employment recovered on the back of strong domestic economy.
Consumption is boosted by strong sales of cars (accounting
for around one-tenth of total retail sales) and housing, with
the latter driving the sales of furniture, home appliances, and
building materials. Shifting the view from domestic to export,
export volumes have recovered rapidly in the past 12 months,
refecting improved global demand and further market share
gains. The year-on year export growth jumped from -26% in
May 2009 to 44% in June 2010. Market share gains confrmed
that Chinas exporters continued to boost price competitiveness,
upgrade products, and enter new markets. In fact, proft margins
in sectors that export a large share of output such as textiles and
electronics now exceed pre-crisis levels.
In China, growth is likely to ease somewhat but remains at
a high rate. Market expects the growth in 2010 to be less
investment-driven and to beneft from more favourable external
trade. Governmentled investment is decelerating after 2009
but has been offset by the strong real estate investment.
The continued growth in consumption as well as net external
trades, together with contained infation, strongly support the
expectation of continued growth in Chinas economy.
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Chart 3: China Manufacturing PMI
Source: Bloomberg
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Chart 4: China export Trade year on year
Source: Bloomberg
For additional information on the product features and key risks, please contact your sales advisor or refer to the contacts on page 66.
5 Year Volatility Target
on HSCEI
Key features
Participation 100%
USD Currency
PRODUCT DeSCRIPTION
This 5 year USD denominated note is linked to Hang Seng China
Enterprises Index (HSCEI) and based on to the Volatility Target
Strategy asset allocation rule. The note will pay four conditional
annual coupons if the Volatility Target Strategy Index closes at or
above 105% of its initial level and the Index level will decrease
by the same amount of the coupon. At maturity, the fnal payoff
will be the Floor amount plus the upside of the Index (In-the-
money Call).