Clemson Universitys Palmetto Poll: 2012 Executive Summary

As a scandal envelopes one GOP presidential candidate and the South Carolina presidential primary draws near, voters across the state are still unsure as to whom they will support in the Republican primary on January 21st. The initial Palmetto Poll, sponsored by Clemson University, the Strom Thurmond Institute and the College of Business and Behavioral Sciences finds voters following the news and paying attention, but unsure as to who will capture their allegiance in the important primary. Since 1980, the winner of the GOP South Carolina Primary has won the Republican nomination for president every time. A sample of 600 likely voters was asked to participate in the survey, most of whom were frequent GOP primary voters, but about a third were general election voters who indicated they would vote in the presidential primary as well. The S.C. presidential primary is expected to draw around 600,000 voters early next year. Nearly 70% (68%) of those surveyed said they were following the news about the election, but hadnt decided on whom to support. Importantly, the Palmetto Poll asked respondents if they were likely to stay with the person they choose or change their mind between now and January. About 68% of the respondents said they were likely to change their mind before the election. In the Republican contest, Mitt Romney (22%) and Herman Cain (20%) led the field, and their numbers are within the margin of error of the poll. The poll was in the field when allegations were made about Herman Cain and we were unable to measure the effect the scandal might have on his candidacy. The figures have a plus or minus 4.5 percent error. The third place candidate was the fast-rising Newt Gingrich (10%), with Rick Perry next at 9%. The other candidates are: Ron Paul, (3%), Michelle Bachmann (3%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Jon Huntsman (1%). Only about 12% of the respondents said they were members of the Tea Party or had attended a meeting of the group, while 38% said they supported it, and only 4% said they were an opponent of the movement. Over half of those polled, 51%, said they neither supported nor opposed the Tea Party.

Clemson Universitys Palmetto Poll Tables and Explanation

With about two months to go before the crucial South Carolina presidential primary, the Palmetto Poll finds that less than one-fourth (23%) of self-described voters in the Republican Presidential Primary have a good idea about whom they will vote in the election early next year. Each candidate in the GOP primary has visited the Palmetto state, and a few are running television ads on cable in anticipation of the January vote. The Palmetto Poll is sponsored by Clemson University, the Strom Thurmond Institute and the College of Business and Behavioral Sciences, and was conducted between October 27 and November 7. During this time allegations of sexual harassment were made against one of the frontrunners in the state. Two-thirds of the respondents were chosen for their participation in this survey based on their previous GOP participation, about one-third were general election voters who indicated they planned to vote in January. Cell phone respondents constitute about 7% of the sample. All respondents indicated they were going to vote in January of 2012. These primary voters are different from general election voters in that they are better informed, are somewhat older and better educated and generally more interested in politics. Over one-half of voters in the sample used were aged 55 years or older, and the voting cohort for the primary is 87% racially white. Nearly half (48%) were college graduates, and over half made more than $50,000 per year. Currently the Republican primary is set for Saturday, January 21st. Six hundred people were interviewed for this poll, which has an error of plus or minus about 4.5 percent. The first question asked respondents how closely they were following the present election. The placement of the South Carolina primaries immediately after the Christmas holidays means that candidate commercials will be running in competition with business advertising. Before the holiday, how closely are South Carolina voters following the campaign in November? Q1. Thinking about the 2012 presidential election, which of the following best describes your thoughts on this contest? Republicans: November 1. Have a good idea about who to support. 2. Have been following the news but havent decided. 3. Not paying much attention 4. DK/NA 23% 68% 6% 3%

The poll asked respondents to give only one response in each of the categories. The voters here are following the news, but remain open to candidate commercial appeals and television coverage of their visits. In short, the election outcome is still up for grabs. We find that most people are following the news coverage of the election, but less than a quarter have a good idea about who they will support.

The Palmetto Poll asked about name recognition and favorability ratings of the candidates. The poll assumed that the candidates were making an impression, or not making an impression, on the voters. Accordingly we followed the question about attention to the campaign with one on the familiar head-to-head race for the nomination. When respondents had no choice, the poll asked them which way they leaned in the election. Q2. If the 2012 presidential primary in South Carolina were held today, for whom would you vote? Republicans: November 1. Mitt Romney 2. Herman Cain 3. Newt Gingrich 4. Rick Perry 5. Ron Paul 6. Michelle Bachmann 7. Jon Huntsman 8. Rick Santorum 9. Undecided 22% 20% 10% 9% 4% 3% 1% 1% 31%

The sexual harassment accusations against Herman Cain surfaced during our polling, but he still remained within the margin of error of the frontrunner, Mitt Romney. We note that Romney is the candidate who leads in the national polls, and that he was leading in our November, 2007 Palmetto Poll before finally finishing fourth in the voting in January of that election year.

We note that the number of undecided voters in this survey is substantial, around 31%, and that this indecision remained after they were asked which way to you lean if they had no favorite candidate. As the election itself draws closer, history shows that South Carolina voters are taking their responsibilities more seriously, and respondents are less likely to make casual selection when queried about who they are likely to support in the January vote or how they lean, but for now they are largely ambivalent. The next question in the Palmetto Poll asked voters about how sure they were that their choice of a candidate was conclusive. Remember than many of them were asked their preferences as leaners. Voters were asked the following question as a follow-up after they made a choice for the primary election.

Q3. Are you sure about voting for _______________ or might you change your mind before the South Carolina primary elections? Republicans: Very sure Might change DK/NA 30% 68% 2%

Beginning in 2007 a protest movement known as the Tea Party arose in opposition to government spending, the focus of which is to call attention to Washington habits. Much was made of the power of the movement in the wake of the 2010 midterm elections when a number of incumbents were unseated by those claiming Tea Party allegiance. Two questions on the Palmetto Poll concerned this movement. Q4. Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party or have you gone to a Tea Party meeting? Yes No DK/NA 12% 87% 2%

The membership of the Tea Party appears to be quite small, but few respondents required the pollsters to give an explanation of what the movement was indicating that they were at least acquainted with the principles and ideals of those active in the movement. Q5. Would you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? Supporter Opponent Neither DK/NA 38% 4% 51% 7%

Nearly 40% of the respondents indicated that they were sympathetic with the Tea Party, and about half said they were neither supportive nor opposed to it. Outright opposition was quite small, indicating that some in the neither category might really be quiet supporters.

The final question measured the approval ratings for statewide elected officials in South Carolina. The following results reflect statewide sentiments. Q6. Please tell me if you have a favorable opinion of __________ ? Heard of Jim DeMint Lindsey Graham Nikki Haley 94% 96% 97% Favorable 70% 63% 64% Unfavorable 13% 22% 17%