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ASEANDisasterRiskFinancingandInsuranceForum Jakarta,8November2011 Jakarta 8 November 2011

PacificCatastropheRiskAssessment andFinancingInitiative
BetterInformationforSmarterInvestments

ImpactofDisastersonPacificIslandsEconomies
US$284millionlosteveryyearbecauseofdisasters US$284 million lost every year because of disasters
AverageAnnualLoss=US$284million
US$178millionfromtropicalcycloneand US$ 178 million from tropical cyclone and US$106millionfromearthquakes&tsunami 3.7% 3 7%

26.2 70.2%
Buildings B ildi Infrastructure Crops

Pacificislandseconomiesamongstmost affected by disasters in the world affectedbydisastersintheworld


10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

AverageAnn nualLossfromDisasters/GDP

basedonreporteddisaster damages NaturalHazardsUnNatural Disasters (WorldBank2010) basedonmodeledannual lossesfrom cyclones,earthquakesandtsunamis cyclones earthquakes and tsunamis (PCRAFI2011)

PCRAFIRiskModelingFramework:Firstefforttoquantify riskofPICsbasedoncommonprobabilisticmethodology risk of PICs based on common probabilistic methodology

Exposure Information

Damage Estimation

Humanandeconomic losses

Hazard

Exposure Information

GeoNode Onlineinterface Metadata Outputs: O t t CountryRiskProfiles Risk/Hazard/AssetMaps

HistoricalHazardand Consequence Catalogues

PACIFICRISK INFORMATION SYSTEM

RiskExposure databases Buildings Infrastructure Population Crops

Hazardmodels TC i d TC wind,stormsurge EQ groundshaking tsunami

ElementsatRisk:People Elements at Risk: People

2010projections basedoncountry censusinformation census information andPopGIS

ElementsatRisk:Buildings Elements at Risk: Buildings

Extensiveinventoryofbuildingsin15countries Extensive inventory of buildings in 15 countries

Photographedand/or digitized

Extractedfrom satelliteimagery

Extracted E d fromexisting datasets

ElementsatRisk:MajorInfrastructure Elements at Risk: Major Infrastructure

ElementsatRisk:CashCrops Elements at Risk: Cash Crops

AssetReplacementCostMaps Asset Replacement Cost Maps


125 E 8 S 126 E
0 1 2 4 Kilometers

127 E

15

30

60

Kilometers

Dili

9 S

9 10'S

9 10'S 930'S 920'S

12410'E

12420'E

Oecusse O

Building Replacement Cost Density (million USD / km^2) km 2)


0 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.25 0.25 - 0.5 0.50 - 0.75 0.75 - 1 1-5 5 - 10 10 - 380

920'S

0
930'S

5 10 Kilometers
12410'E

20
12420'E

125 E

126 E

127 E

9 9 S

8 S

Timor-Leste

Dili

Simulatingearthquakerisksandtropicalcycloneriskfrom regionalhistoricalhazarddatabase regional historical hazard database


10,000realizationsofnextyears 10 000 realizations of next years tropicalcycloneandearthquake activity

Hazardmodelsare"highstandard, g p f thoroughandrepresentativeofbest practice.(GeoscienceAustralia)


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HazardMaps:ApplicationsforPlanners Hazard Maps: Applications for Planners


100yrmeanreturnperiod:wind 100 yr mean return period: wind speed,groundaccelerationwith ~40%chancestobeexceededin 50years

Countryriskprofiles Country risk profiles


MeanReturnPeriod (years)
DirectLosses (MillionUSD) (%GDP) EmergencyLosses Emergency Losses (MillionUSD) (%oftotalgovernment expenditures) Casualties 3.7 1.3% 151 32.7 11.5% 1,209 46.2 16.3% 1,854 68.5 24.2% 3,209 20.0 3.0% 190.0 28.0% 279.0 41.1% 423.0 62.3%

AAL

50

100

250

RiskProfile:TropicalCyclone,Earthquake,andTsunami

700
TC+EQ

DirectLosses(m millionUSD)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0

TC EQ

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 MeanReturnPeriod(years)

PotentialapplicationsforDisasterRiskManagement pp g
Disasterriskplanning
Regionaldevelopment/urban planning Riskadjustedbuildingcodes Identification of critical assets Identificationofcriticalassets DisasterPreparednessPlanning Communitybaseddisasterrisk g management

Postdisasterdamageassessment Widepublicaccesstorisk information Disasterriskfinancing


Financialbudgetplanning Contingent credit facilities Contingentcreditfacilities Regionalriskpoolingmechanism
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NextSteps PCRAFIPhase3 p
Macroeconomic Planning&Disaster RiskFinancing RapidDisaster Impact E ti ti I t Estimation Integrationof ClimateChange Climate Change projections

PACIFICRISK INFORMATION SYSTEM

UrbanPlanningand InfrastructureDesign

Professionaland Institutional I i i l Capacity Development

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