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November 4, 2011
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price `109 1QFY12
10,811 1,312 12.1 839
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
2QFY12
10,837 1,327 12.2 1,003
2QFY11
10,603 1,542 14.5 937
% chg (yoy)
2.2 (13.9) (230)bp 7.0
% chg (qoq)
0.2 1.1 11bp 19.6
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, SAIL reported net sales of `10,837cr, slightly below our estimate of `11,135cr. However, adjusted PAT at `1,003cr was above our estimate of `836cr. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Lower volumes mute 2QFY2012 net sales growth: During 2QFY2012, net sales grew by 2.2% yoy to `10,837cr (slightly below our estimate of `11,135cr) mainly due to increased realization (up 8.7% yoy to `38,023/tonne), partially offset by lower sales volume (down 5.9% yoy to 2.9mn tonnes). Power, fuel and staff costs dent SAILs EBITDA: Despite 8.7% yoy growth in realization, EBITDA dipped by 13.9% yoy to `1,327cr and EBITDA margin contracted by 230bp yoy to 12.2% mainly due to higher power and fuel (up 28.2% yoy) and staff costs (up 16.5% yoy). EBITDA/tonne stood at `4,657 in 2QFY2012 compared to `5,090 in 2QFY2011. Forex loss hits net profit: SAIL reported an exceptional item related to forex loss of `509cr in 2QFY2012 compared to forex gain of `153cr in 2QFY2011. Hence, net profit decreased by 54.6% yoy to `495cr. However, excluding exceptional items, adjusted net profit grew by 7.0% yoy to `1,003cr in 2QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: SAIL is expected to increase its saleable steel production capacity from 12.5mn tonnes to 23.1mn tonnes by FY2015. Also, we expect SAIL's older loss-making plants to be modernized as part of its modernization program. However, the company has reported delays in its expansion plans. The stock is currently trading at a 9.1x and 6.4x FY2012 and FY2013 EV/EBITDA, respectively. Given the companys modest volume growth in the near term and fair valuations, we have a Neutral view on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 85.8 7.5 4.0 2.7
3m
1yr
FY2010 40,551 (7.2) 6,754 9.4 16.4 24.5 6.7 1.3 21.9 19.2 1.0 4.0
FY2011 42,720 5.3 4,881 (27.7) 11.8 17.7 9.2 1.2 13.7 10.7 1.1 6.4
FY2012E 46,170 8.1 3,809 (22.0) 9.2 13.6 11.8 1.1 9.7 7.2 1.2 9.1
FY2013E 54,932 19.0 5,077 33.3 12.3 17.1 8.9 1.0 11.7 9.4 1.1 6.4
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 10,837 5,156 47.6 652 6.0 1,124 10.4 1,981 18.3 740 6.8 9,652 1,184 10.9 143 1,327 12.2 234 394 57 (509) 715 6.6 220 30.8 495 1,003
2QFY11 10,603 5,167 48.7 608 5.7 877 8.3 1,700 16.0 853 8.0 9,205 1,398 13.2 145 1,542 14.5 223 369 43 153 1,592 15.0 502 31.5 1,090 937
yoy (%) 2.2 (0.2) 7.3 28.2 16.5 (13.3) 4.9 (15.3) (1.1) (13.9) 4.6 6.8 31.8 (55.1) (56.2) (54.6) 7.0
1QFY12 10,811 4,949 45.8 618 5.7 1,017 9.4 2,251 20.8 779 7.2 9,614 1,197 11.1 115 1,312 12.1 279 374 13 1,230 11.4 391 31.8 839 839
qoq (%) 0.2 4.2 5.6 10.5 (12.0) (4.9) 0.4 (1.1) 24.2 1.1 (16.2) 5.2 324.9 (41.9) (43.7) (41.0) 19.6
Actual
10,837 1,327 12.2 1,003
Estimates
11,135 1,290 11.6 836
Variation (%)
(2.7) 2.9 66bp 20.0
November 4, 2011
Result highlights
Lower sales volume mute 2QFY2012 sales growth
During 2QFY202, net sales grew by 2.2% yoy to `10,837cr (slightly below our estimates of `11,135cr) mainly due to higher realization (up 8.7% yoy to `38,023/tonne), partially offset by lower sales volumes (down 5.9% yoy to 2.9mn tonnes).
(mn tonnes)
(`/tonne)
(` cr)
36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 Sales volume (LHS) Average realisation (RHS)
5 0 (5)
4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 Net revenue (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
2QFY12 38,023 33,868 17,326 2,288 3,943 6,950 3,361 4,657 100
2QFY11 34,993 30,380 16,542 2,005 2,893 5,612 3,328 5,090 110
yoy (%) 8.7 11.5 4.7 14.1 36.3 23.8 1.0 (8.5) (8.8)
1QFY12 39,313 34,959 17,038 2,246 3,698 8,186 3,790 4,772 106
qoq (%) (3.3) (3.1) 1.7 1.9 6.6 (15.1) (11.3) (2.4) (5.8)
November 4, 2011
(%)
8,000
10
(` cr)
(%)
839
1,003
10.0 5.0 0.0 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
November 4, 2011
(%)
15.0
(` cr)
2,000
1,107
Investment rationale
Volume growth to double, albeit in 23 years
SAIL is expected to increase its saleable steel production capacity from 12.5mn tonnes to 23.1mn tonnes by FY2015 at a capex of `70,000cr. We expect strong profitability from these plants, with captive iron ore backing the upcoming steel expansion. Also, we expect SAIL's older loss-making plants to be modernized as part of its modernization program. However, we do not rule out delays and cost over-runs in its expansion plans.
(mn tonne)
20
11.7
11.1
10.5
10 14.5 0 Hot Metal Existing Crude steel Expansion Saleable Steel 13.5 12.6
10.2
November 4, 2011
FY2013E
14.2 38,739
12.0 38,356
FY13
56,016 10,418 18.6 8,823 5,912 10.6
FY13
54,932 9,414 17.1 7,577 5,077 9.2
FY13
(1.9) (9.6) (146)bp (8.3) (8.3) (64)bp
Angel forecast
9.2 12.3
Bloomberg consensus
11.5 13.1
Variation (%)
(19.8) (6.2)
November 4, 2011
Oct-05
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2x
5x
8x
11x
14x
5x
10x
15x
20x
(`)
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Apr-06
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November 4, 2011
Oct-11
Oct-11
614 -
33 -
November 4, 2011
November 4, 2011
4,130 33,474 37,604 12 1 21,260 1,557 60,434 40,466 23,833 16,633 22,581 61 38,833 17,748 4,904 16,181 17,676 21,159 60,434
18,933 23,854 29,186 23,064 27,984 33,317 3,045 1,569 1,332 1,415
12
-
12
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1
26,260 1,557
1
31,260 1,557
7,539 16,511
68,761
62,266 25,449 36,817 15,081 61 36,745 14,516 4,904 17,325 19,944 16,802 68,761
78,355
77,766 27,920 49,845 9,581 61 39,638 15,754 4,904 18,980 20,771 18,868 78,355
26,318 34,511 39,081 13,759 18,229 22,439 2,380 2,122 3,343 10,178 14,160 13,299 13,199 17,122 17,149 13,119 17,389 21,933 59 27,677 36,855 51,243
November 4, 2011
10
(743) (2,418)
(1,079) (1,101) (1,140) (4,406) 1 (1,112) 1,643 334 (3,089) 4,150 1 4,520 1,496 273 2,751 4,469
November 4, 2011
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest coverage
(0.5) (1.0) 39.4 (0.4) (1.3) 28.6 (0.2) (0.5) 21.4 0.1 0.5 12.8 0.3 1.9 9.1 0.3 1.6 6.3 1.3 184 28 80 61 1.4 204 25 84 66 1.2 194 33 132 70 1.1 222 36 118 69 0.9 210 35 118 77 0.8 200 35 118 68 39.1 83.8 37.3 14.0 31.3 18.3 19.2 65.8 21.9 10.7 34.9 13.7 7.2 15.7 9.7 9.4 15.1 11.7 24.7 65.7 2.9 47.8 47.8 16.6 65.7 1.3 13.9 13.9 21.2 66.7 1.7 24.3 24.3 14.2 68.2 1.2 11.6 1.5 0.1 12.5 10.1 67.0 1.0 6.5 1.3 0.3 8.0 12.6 67.0 1.0 8.1 2.4 0.3 10.0 18.2 18.2 21.2 3.7 55.8 14.9 14.9 18.1 67.8 16.4 16.4 19.6 3.3 81.7 11.8 11.8 15.4 2.6 91.0 9.2 9.2 13.1 1.0 99.1 12.3 12.3 18.3 1.0 110.2 6.0 5.1 2.0 3.4 0.9 3.1 1.2 7.3 6.0 1.6 0.8 4.0 0.9 6.7 5.6 1.3 3.0 1.0 4.0 0.8 9.2 7.1 1.2 2.4 1.1 6.4 0.8 11.8 8.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 9.1 0.8 8.9 6.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 6.4 0.8
November 4, 2011
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
SAIL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 4, 2011
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