Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Basic Data
Company Tata Chemicals Limited
Industry Diversified
Country India
FY Ending Mar 31 Income Tax Rate 35.0%
Last Year 2007 Currency INR
Price and Market Data
Date of update Oct 17, 2008 Risk Free rate 7.2%
Stock price 275.00 Beta 0.30
52 week High/Low 431 / 187.05 ### 187.05
BSE Ticker TTCH IN
Shares in issue (fully diluted) (m) 259.173
Market Cap 71,272.5 83596.15
Debt 12,120.0
Preferred Stock -
Minority Interest -
Cash and cash equiv 1,544.4
Investments 7,752.6
Enterprise Value 74,095.5
Shareholding Pattern
Percentage Holding
Promoter Shareholding 67.874 29.4%
Public Shareholding 142.875 61.9%
Institutions 89.499 38.8%
Non Institutions 53.376 23.1%
Total Foreign Shareholding 20.163 8.7%
Foreign Inst. Inv. 20.163 8.7%
Shares Outstanding 230.912
Tata Chemicals Limited
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
INCOME STATEMENT
Inorganic Chemicals 9,924.0 11,353.2 16,895.5 31,513.3 36,092.3 41,063.8 47,310.8 53,290.6 60,220.4
Fertilizers 15,517.5 18,728.2 23,285.2 26,582.7 30,403.8 31,114.9 31,449.0 32,464.1 32,843.6
Total Turnover 25,441.5 30,081.4 40,180.7 58,096.0 66,496.0 72,178.7 78,759.8 85,754.6 93,064.1
% Growth NM 18.2% 33.6% 44.6% 14.5% 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.5%
Raw Materials Purchased 9,754.7 11,221.8 14,660.2 19,320.1 22,113.6 23,163.3 24,453.8 25,959.9 27,468.4
Cost of traded goods purchased 1,575.0 2,365.6 4,618.6 4,071.2 4,892.8 5,311.0 5,795.2 6,309.9 6,847.7
Change in inventory of work-in-process goods (216.8) 410.5 (1,013.9) 214.7 245.7 266.7 291.1 316.9 343.9
Cost of sales 11,112.9 13,997.9 18,264.9 23,606.0 27,252.1 28,741.0 30,540.1 32,586.8 34,660.0
COGS % of sales 43.7% 46.5% 45.5% 40.6% 41.0% 39.8% 38.8% 38.0% 37.2%
Gross Profit 14,328.6 16,083.5 21,915.8 34,490.0 39,243.9 43,437.7 48,219.8 53,167.9 58,404.0
Gross Profit Margin 56.3% 53.5% 54.5% 59.4% 59.0% 60.2% 61.2% 62.0% 62.8%
Operating Expenses
Employee Cost 8,741.0 1,064.3 1,488.6 3,480.3 4,182.7 4,767.1 5,487.9 6,303.9 7,217.5
Other Operating Cost 1,147.3 9,884.5 12,909.2 20,943.2 22,395.0 24,308.9 26,525.4 28,881.1 31,342.8
D&A 1,441.5 1,377.0 1,840.4 2,738.8 2,898.2 3,057.7 3,180.7 3,285.5 3,390.3
Total Operating Expenses 11,329.8 12,325.8 16,238.2 27,162.3 29,476.0 32,133.7 35,194.0 38,470.5 41,950.6
EBIT 2,998.8 3,757.7 5,677.6 7,327.7 9,767.9 11,304.0 13,025.8 14,697.3 16,453.4
EBIT Margin 11.8% 12.5% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7% 15.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.7%
Non operating income & ( Exp )
Investment Income 388.5 708.7 577.8 942.7 1,118.8 1,214.4 1,325.2 1,442.9 1,565.9
Interest on refund of tax 382.6 308.7 255.7 34.8
Other Exp Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Interest Expense (509.1) (245.7) (504.8) (823.9) (848.2) (789.3) (706.2) (623.1) (540.0)
Profit Before tax 3,260.8 4,529.4 6,006.3 7,481.3 10,038.5 11,729.2 13,644.8 15,517.1 17,479.2
Tax (1,055.5) (1,124.0) (1,723.1) (2,400.9) (3,221.6) (3,764.1) (4,378.9) (4,979.8) (5,609.4)
Eff Tax Rate 32.4% 24.8% 28.7% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1%
Net Income 2,205.3 3,405.4 4,283.2 5,080.4 6,817.0 7,965.0 9,265.9 10,537.4 11,869.8
NI Margin 8.7% 11.3% 10.7% 8.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8%
Balance Brought Fwd from B/s 3,650.3 4,780.3 6,238.4 8,495.5 11,127.6 15,251.0 20,068.9 25,673.7 32,047.5
Amount avaulable for Appropriations 5,855.6 8,185.7 10,521.6 13,575.9 17,944.6 23,216.1 29,334.8 36,211.0 43,917.3
Net Extraordinary income/ (Expenses) ( Net of Tax ) 489.4 0.0 50.8 15.0
Appropriations
Proposed Dividends 1,183.1 1,398.2 1,505.7 1,720.8 2,302.2 2,689.9 3,129.2 3,558.6 4,008.6
Tax on dividends 151.6 199.1 211.2 292.5 391.3 457.2 531.9 604.9 681.4
General Reserve 230.0 350.0 360.0 450.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Balance to Retained Earnings 4,780.3 6,238.4 8,495.5 11,127.6 15,251.0 20,068.9 25,673.7 32,047.5 39,227.3
Shares outstanding (m) 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103
Fully diluted (m) 215.103 219.754 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474
EPS 10.25 15.83 19.91 23.62 31.69 37.03 43.08 48.99 55.18
EPS (Incl gains/(loss) on sale of investents, provisions and others 12.53 15.50 17.80 20.93 28.00 32.71 38.06 43.28 48.75
EBITDA 4,440.3 5,134.7 7,518.0 10,066.5 12,666.1 14,361.7 16,206.5 17,982.8 19,843.7
EBITDA margin 17.5% 17.1% 18.7% 17.3% 19.0% 19.9% 20.6% 21.0% 21.3%
EBIT Margin 11.8% 12.5% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7% 15.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.7%
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR m INR m INR m INR m
Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8 19,423.5
Sundry Debtors 3,975.3 4,404.3 7,655.4 9,664.9 10,964.4 11,901.4 12,986.5 14,139.9 15,345.1
Inventories 3,448.1 3,913.0 6,983.2 6,351.7 7,332.8 7,733.4 8,217.5 8,768.2 9,326.0
Other current assets 5,585.2 3,804.5 2,726.9 2,581.8 2,955.1 3,207.6 3,500.1 3,811.0 4,135.8
Current investments 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Current Assets 13,752.2 19,638.5 18,530.0 20,142.8 24,367.1 28,036.5 33,517.7 40,394.8 48,230.4
Net Fixed Assets 17,414.5 15,623.9 27,794.1 30,560.5 31,162.3 31,604.6 31,123.9 30,138.4 29,048.1
LT Investments 6,269.4 9,387.4 5,474.8 7,752.6 8,873.5 9,631.9 10,510.1 11,443.5 12,418.9
Goodwill 0.0 0.0 7,074.9 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4
Deferred tax asset 0.0 0.0 936.2 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6
Other Assets 31.4 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Assets 37,467.5 44,666.6 59,810.0 66,663.9 72,610.9 77,480.9 83,359.6 90,184.7 97,905.4
Sundry Creditors ( Incl Snudry Deposits ) 2,775.2 4,703.6 8,361.4 9,275.9 10,708.6 11,293.7 12,000.6 12,804.9 13,619.5
Other current Liabilities 815.1 107.3 233.1 2,208.7 2,528.1 2,744.1 2,994.3 3,260.2 3,538.1
Total Current Liabilities 3,590.3 4,810.9 8,594.5 11,484.6 13,236.7 14,037.8 14,994.9 16,065.1 17,157.7
Debt
Secured 3,384.2 2,016.0 4,619.5 8,620.7 8,347.7 7,546.3 6,744.8 5,943.4 5,141.9
Unsecures 4,271.2 11,226.2 13,657.4 3,499.3 3,499.3 3,149.4 2,799.4 2,449.5 2,099.6
Total Debt 7,655.4 13,242.2 18,276.9 12,120.0 11,847.0 10,695.6 9,544.3 8,392.9 7,241.5
Deferred Tax Liability 4,420.3 3,533.8 3,229.5 2,912.2 3,256.6 3,659.1 4,127.3 4,659.7 5,259.5
Provisions 1,448.1 3,101.3 7,347.1 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6
Other long term liability 0.0 0.0 168.5 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3
Share Capital 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6
Reserves and Surplus 18,201.8 17,826.8 20,041.9 23,566.6 27,690.0 32,507.9 38,112.7 44,486.5 51,666.3
Preferred stocks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Shareholders' Equity 20,353.4 19,978.4 22,193.5 32,240.2 36,363.6 41,181.5 46,786.3 53,160.1 60,339.9
Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Liabilities and Equity 37,467.5 44,666.6 59,810.0 66,663.9 72,610.9 77,480.9 83,359.6 90,184.7 97,905.4
Net Cash used in Investing Activities (494.7) (3,101.1) (7,076.8) (6,535.6)### (4,620.9) (4,258.3) (3,578.2) (3,233.4) (3,275.4)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities - - - - ### - - - - -
Proceeds of borrowings 3,003.7 6,816.0 2,112.4 5,008.8 ### - - - - -
Repayment of borrowings (5,774.2)### (1,660.4)
### (1,635.3)### (5,563.0)### (273.0) (1,151.4) (1,151.4) (1,151.4) (1,151.4)
Lease rent paid (29.7)### (29.7)
### (29.8)### (29.9)### - - - - -
Dividends paid (1,306.5)### (1,338.2)
### (1,589.3)### (1,715.7)### (2,693.5) (3,147.2) (3,661.2) (4,163.5) (4,690.0)
Net Cash used in Financing Activities (4,106.7) 3,787.7 (1,142.0) (2,299.8)### (2,966.5) (4,298.5) (4,812.5) (5,314.9) (5,841.4)
Net Increase/ (Decrease) in Cash and Cash equivalents 269.6### 6,789.8### (6,571.1)### 316.1 ### 1,570.4 2,079.3 3,619.5 4,862.2 5,747.7
Cash and Cash equivalents as at 1st April 211.0 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8
Others Adjsustments 246.3 - 218.9 63.8 - - - - -
Cash and Cash equivalents as at 31st March 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8 19,423.5
Tata Chemicals Limited
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Inorganic Chemicals 9,924.0 11,353.2 16,895.5 31,513.3 36,092.3 41,063.8 47,310.8 53,290.6 60,220.4 13.7%
Fertilizers 15,517.5 18,728.2 23,285.2 26,582.7 30,403.8 31,114.9 31,449.0 32,464.1 32,843.6 1.9%
Total Turnover 25,441.5 30,081.4 40,180.7 58,096.0 66,496.0 72,178.7 78,759.8 85,754.6 93,064.1 8.8%
% Growth NM 18.2% 33.6% 44.6% 14.5% 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.5%
Cost of sales 11,112.9 13,997.9 18,264.9 23,606.0 27,252.1 28,741.0 30,540.1 32,586.8 34,660.0
COGS % of sales 43.7% 46.5% 45.5% 40.6% 41.0% 39.8% 38.8% 38.0% 37.2%
Gross Profit 14,328.6 16,083.5 21,915.8 34,490.0 39,243.9 43,437.7 48,219.8 53,167.9 58,404.0
Gross Profit Margin 56.3% 53.5% 54.5% 59.4% 59.0% 60.2% 61.2% 62.0% 62.8%
Operating Expenses
Employee Cost 8,741.0 1,064.3 1,488.6 3,480.3 4,182.7 4,767.1 5,487.9 6,303.9 7,217.5
Other Operating Cost 1,147.3 9,884.5 12,909.2 20,943.2 22,395.0 24,308.9 26,525.4 28,881.1 31,342.8
D&A 1,441.5 1,377.0 1,840.4 2,738.8 2,898.2 3,057.7 3,180.7 3,285.5 3,390.3
Total Operating Expenses 11,329.8 12,325.8 16,238.2 27,162.3 29,476.0 32,133.7 35,194.0 38,470.5 41,950.6
EBIT 2,998.8 3,757.7 5,677.6 7,327.7 9,767.9 11,304.0 13,025.8 14,697.3 16,453.4
EBIT Margin 11.8% 12.5% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7% 15.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.7%
Non operating income & ( Exp )
Investment Income 388.5 708.7 577.8 942.7 1,118.8 1,214.4 1,325.2 1,442.9 1,565.9
Interest on refund of tax 382.6 308.7 255.7 34.8 - - - - -
Other Exp Items - - - - - - - - -
Net Interest Expense (509.1) (245.7) (504.8) (823.9) (848.2) (789.3) (706.2) (623.1) (540.0)
Profit Before tax 3,260.8 4,529.4 6,006.3 7,481.3 10,038.5 11,729.2 13,644.8 15,517.1 17,479.2
Tax (1,055.5) (1,124.0) (1,723.1) (2,400.9) (3,221.6) (3,764.1) (4,378.9) (4,979.8) (5,609.4)
Eff Tax Rate 32.4% 24.8% 28.7% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1%
Net Income 2,205.3 3,405.4 4,283.2 5,080.4 6,817.0 7,965.0 9,265.9 10,537.4 11,869.8
NI Margin 8.7% 11.3% 10.7% 8.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.8% 12.3% 12.8%
Balance Brought Fwd from B/s 3,650.3 4,780.3 6,238.4 8,495.5 11,127.6 15,251.0 20,068.9 25,673.7 32,047.5
Amount avaulable for Appropriations 5,855.6 8,185.7 10,521.6 13,575.9 17,944.6 23,216.1 29,334.8 36,211.0 43,917.3
Net Extraordinary income/ (Expenses) ( Net of Tax ) 489.4 - 50.8 15.0 - - - - -
Appropriations
Proposed Dividends 1,183.1 1,398.2 1,505.7 1,720.8 2,302.2 2,689.9 3,129.2 3,558.6 4,008.6
Tax on dividends 151.6 199.1 211.2 292.5 391.3 457.2 531.9 604.9 681.4
General Reserve 230.0 350.0 360.0 450.0 - - - - -
Balance to Retained Earnings 4,780.3 6,238.4 8,495.5 11,127.6 15,251.0 20,068.9 25,673.7 32,047.5 39,227.3
Shares outstanding (m) 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103 215.103
Fully diluted (m) 215.103 219.754 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474 243.474
EPS 10.25 15.83 19.91 23.62 31.69 37.03 43.08 48.99 55.18
EPS (Incl gains/(loss) on sale of investents, provisions and others 12.53 15.50 17.80 20.93 28.00 32.71 38.06 43.28 48.75
EBITDA 4,440.3 5,134.7 7,518.0 10,066.5 12,666.1 14,361.7 16,206.5 17,982.8 19,843.7
EBITDA margin 17.5% 17.1% 18.7% 17.3% 19.0% 19.9% 20.6% 21.0% 21.3%
EBIT Margin 11.8% 12.5% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7% 15.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.7%
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Sundry Debtors 3,975.3 4,404.3 7,655.4 9,664.9 10,964.4 11,901.4 12,986.5 14,139.9 15,345.1
Inventories 3,448.1 3,913.0 6,983.2 6,351.7 7,332.8 7,733.4 8,217.5 8,768.2 9,326.0
Other current assets 5,585.2 3,804.5 2,726.9 2,581.8 2,955.1 3,207.6 3,500.1 3,811.0 4,135.8
Current investments 16.7 - - - - - - - -
Total Current Assets 13,752.2 19,638.5 18,530.0 20,142.8 24,367.1 28,036.5 33,517.7 40,394.8 48,230.4
114.8 2,194.1 5,813.6 10,675.8 16,423.5
Net Fixed Assets 17,414.5 15,623.9 27,794.1 30,560.5 31,162.3 31,604.6 31,123.9 30,138.4 29,048.1
LT Investments 6,269.4 9,387.4 5,474.8 7,752.6 8,873.5 9,631.9 10,510.1 11,443.5 12,418.9
Goodwill - - 7,074.9 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4 7,632.4
Deferred tax asset - - 936.2 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6 575.6
Other Assets 31.4 16.8 - - - - - - -
Total Assets 37,467.5 44,666.6 59,810.0 66,663.9 72,610.9 77,480.9 83,359.6 90,184.7 97,905.4
72,610.9 77,480.9 83,359.6 90,184.7 97,905.4
Liabilities and Shareholders Equity - - - - -
Sundry Creditors ( Incl Snudry Deposits ) 2,775.2 4,703.6 8,361.4 9,275.9 10,708.6 11,293.7 12,000.6 12,804.9 13,619.5
Other current Liabilities 815.1 107.3 233.1 2,208.7 2,528.1 2,744.1 2,994.3 3,260.2 3,538.1
Total Current Liabilities 3,590.3 4,810.9 8,594.5 11,484.6 13,236.7 14,037.8 14,994.9 16,065.1 17,157.7
Debt
Secured 3,384.2 2,016.0 4,619.5 8,620.7 8,347.7 7,546.3 6,744.8 5,943.4 5,141.9
Unsecures 4,271.2 11,226.2 13,657.4 3,499.3 3,499.3 3,149.4 2,799.4 2,449.5 2,099.6
Total Debt 7,655.4 13,242.2 18,276.9 12,120.0 11,847.0 10,695.6 9,544.3 8,392.9 7,241.5
Deferred Tax Liability 4,420.3 3,533.8 3,229.5 2,912.2 3,256.6 3,659.1 4,127.3 4,659.7 5,259.5
Provisions 1,448.1 3,101.3 7,347.1 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6 7,732.6
Other long term liability - - 168.5 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3 174.3
Share Capital 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6 2,151.6
Reserves and Surplus 18,201.8 17,826.8 20,041.9 23,566.6 27,690.0 32,507.9 38,112.7 44,486.5 51,666.3
Plug
Total Shareholders' Equity 20,353.4 19,978.4 22,193.5 32,240.2 36,363.6 41,181.5 46,786.3 53,160.1 60,339.9
Minority interest - - - - - - - - -
Total Liabilities and Equity 37,467.5 44,666.6 59,810.0 66,663.9 72,610.9 77,480.9 83,359.6 90,184.7 97,905.4
Check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Profit before Tax 3,260.8 4,529.4 6,006.3 7,481.3 10,038.5 11,729.2 13,644.8 15,517.1 17,479.2
Adjustments for :
Depreciation 1,441.5 1,377.0 1,840.4 2,738.8 2,898.2 3,057.7 3,180.7 3,285.5 3,390.3
Net Cash used in Investing Activities (494.7) (3,101.1) (7,076.8) (6,535.6) (4,620.9) (4,258.3) (3,578.2) (3,233.4) (3,275.4)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities
Proceeds of borrowings 3,003.7 6,816.0 2,112.4 5,008.8 - - - - -
Repayment of borrowings (5,774.2) (1,660.4) (1,635.3) (5,563.0) (273.0) (1,151.4) (1,151.4) (1,151.4) (1,151.4)
Lease rent paid (29.7) (29.7) (29.8) (29.9) - - - - -
Dividends paid (1,306.5) (1,338.2) (1,589.3) (1,715.7) (2,693.5) (3,147.2) (3,661.2) (4,163.5) (4,690.0)
Net Cash used in Financing Activities (4,106.7) 3,787.7 (1,142.0) (2,299.8) (2,966.5) (4,298.5) (4,812.5) (5,314.9) (5,841.4)
Net Increase/ (Decrease) in Cash and Cash equivalents 269.6 6,789.8 (6,571.1) 316.1 1,570.4 2,079.3 3,619.5 4,862.2 5,747.7
Cash and Cash equivalents as at 1st April 211.0 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8
Others Adjsustments 246.3 - 218.9 63.8 - - - - -
Cash and Cash equivalents as at 31st March 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8 19,423.5
Assumptions
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E iGTAE:
Income Statement INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn Why are we estimating revenues based on 100%
capacity?
Revenues iGTAE:
Segment : Chemicals 16,895.5 31,513.3 Letisusmore
Current demand for soda ash in India givethn
growth
the
Stand Alone 9,924.0 11,353.2 13,396.5 16,655.2 rates plans
supply and also the capacity utalization separately,
of the rather
than including the
copmany are towards effective utalization.
Soda Ash 5,456.5 5,913.3 7,126.4 7,541.4 9,814.3 11,440.2 13,463.3 14,459.7 15,122.9 percentages here - let
Other Inorganic Chemicals 4,467.5 5,439.9 6,270.1 9,113.8 9,934.0 10,828.1 11,856.8 13,101.7 14,608.4 us put this in
Subsidiary - - 3,499.0 14,858.1 16,343.9 18,795.5 21,990.7 25,729.2 30,489.0 assumptions
Segment : Fertilizers
Fertilizers 23,285.2 26,582.7
Stand Alone 15,517.5 18,728.2 21,924.4 24,869.1 28,450.3 28,887.9 28,887.9 29,544.5 29,544.5 iGTAE:
Is there a way of linking these percentages to capacity
JV 1,360.8 1,713.6 1,953.5 2,227.0 2,561.0 2,919.6 3,299.1 utilization?
Total Chemicals 9,924.0 11,353.2 16,895.5 31,513.3 36,092.3 41,063.8 47,310.8 53,290.6 60,220.4 This break up is given for the reference purpose, Other wise the
consolidated revenues from chemicals business is shown in row
Total Fertilizers 15,517.5 18,728.2 23,285.2 26,582.7 30,403.8 31,114.9 31,449.0 32,464.1 32,843.6 152 & 153
Total Revenue 25,441.5 30,081.4 40,180.7 58,096.0 66,496.0 72,178.7 78,759.8 85,754.6 93,064.1
1.09
Capacity ( In MMT)
Segment : Chemicals ( in MMT )
Soda Ash 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.918 0.950 1.044 1.138 1.200 1.200
Production in Rs Mil ( if 100% Utalization ) 6,907.0 7,300.4 8,384.0 8,977.9 9,293.85 10,214.43 11,135.01 11,739.60 11,739.60
Current Capacity Utalization ( Chemicals ) 79.0% 81.0% 85.0% 84.0% 96.0% 100.0% 107.0% 109.0% 113.0% iGTAE:
Soda Ash Prices growth % 10.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0% 14.0% Are we sure about this?
Other Inorganic Chemicals 9.0% 9.0% 9.5% 10.5% 11.5%
Subsidiary Growth % 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 17.0% 18.5%
Segment : Fertilizers
Fertilizres Capacity 1.412 1.412 1.412 1.412 1.553 1.709 1.879 2.067 2.100
iGTAE:
Current Capacity Fertilizers 101.5% 104.5% 115.5% 125.0% 130.0% 132.0% 132.0% 135.0% 135.0%
Why are we not using
Fertilizers Growth % 3.0% 10.5% 8.2% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 12.5% these numbers
JV's Growth % 14.0% 14.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% anywhere? What are
they for?
Capacity Expansion
iGTAE:
Current Capacity Soda Ash 0.918 Are these arbitrary numbers?
Expansion Plans Soda Ash 1.200 0.282 0.094 Net Increase in capacity per year during FY09 and FY10.
Assumed based on the Subsidiary's
Current Capacity Fertiilizers 1.412 country and its respective markets.
Expansion Plans Fertilizers 40.0% 0.100
Note 1 : Soda ash capacity to be increased to 1.2M tons after de bottlenecking at Mithapur. ( ARS 2007). Hence projected increase of 0.140 MMT inscrease from FY 09 to FY 10.
Note 2 : Fertilizer production capacity to increase 40% by spending 1500M over two years. ( ARS 2007).
Raw Materials Purchased 37.3% 36.5% 33.3% 33.3% 32.1% 31.0% 30.3% 29.5%
Change in Cost (2.2%) (8.9%) (3.5%) (3.3%) (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.5%)
Cost of traded goods purchased 7.9% 11.5% 7.0% 7.4% 7.7% 8.2% 8.6% 9.1%
Change in inventory of work-in-process goods 1.4% (2.5%) 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Employee Cost 3.5% 3.7% 6.0% 6.3% 6.6% 7.0% 7.4% 7.8% iGTAE:
Let us give the increase percentages separately - and consider capacity expansion while
Growth in Employment Cost 5.0% 5.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% projecting staff costs.
Other Operating Cost 32.9% 32.1% 36.0% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% Exp: a) The Inc in % represents the projected inflation. And the employee cost taken as % of
D&A 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% revenue which takes care of the capacity expansion.
Investment Income 1.3% iGATE: Assumed average of the historical
periods.
Balance Sheet iGTAE:
Accounts Receivable - (No of days) 57.0 53.4 69.5 60.7 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2 Can we try to understand the reasons for volatility in inventory period and project
Inventories (no of days) 113.3 64.5 139.6 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.2 based on that?
As discussed in the revenues section, This volatility is due to the consolidation and
Other current assets (% of Sales) 22.0% 12.6% 6.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
stand alone financial statements. The changes in the B/S for FY06 w r t FY05 is
comparing consolidated with stand alone. Hence the future working capital cycle
assumed to be reflection of the lastest B/S ie FY07( which is 100% consolidated ).
Accounts Payable (No of days) 91.2 122.6 167.1 143.4 ### 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4
Other Current Liabilities(% of Sales) 3.2% 0.4% 0.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Proposed Dividend as % of NI 43.9% 41.1% 34.7% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% 33.8% iGTAE:
Tax on Dividends 5.6% 5.8% 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% Same as inventories
Dividends payable (Growth Rate) NM 19.7% 7.5% 17.3% 33.8% 16.8% 16.3% 13.7% 12.6% As discussed in the revenues section, This volatility is due to the consolidation and stand
Other Long term Liabilities(% of Sales) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% alone financial statements. The changes in the B/S for FY06 w r t FY05 is comparing
consolidated with stand alone. Hence the future working capital cycle assumed to be
reflection of the lastest B/S ie FY07( which is 100% consolidated ).
D&A Schedule : Represents the details break up of the FA movement and accum depreciation.
Gross fixed assets 30,424.8 30,637.0 48,462.4 57,822.6 61,322.6 64,822.6 67,522.6 69,822.6 72,122.6
Capital WIP 277.7 542.0 5,589.0 2,296.1 2,296.1 2,296.1 2,296.1 2,296.1 2,296.1
Total FA 30,702.5 31,179.0 54,051.4 60,118.7 63,618.7 67,118.7 69,818.7 72,118.7 74,418.7
Capex
Segment : Chemicals 172.2 575.1 1722.9 4,292.1 2,250.0 2,250.0 1,500.0 1,200.0 1,200.0
Segment : Fertilizers 169.8 142.2 172.2 417.5 750.0 750.0 700.0 600.0 600.0
Corporate (Maintenance Capex ) 31.7 7.3 22.4 187.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0
Total Capex 373.7 724.6 1,917.5 4,896.6 3,500.0 3,500.0 2,700.0 2,300.0 2,300.0
Depreciation
Segment : Chemicals 643.3 562.9 778.8 1,628.1 - - - - -
Segment : Fertilizers 789.9 804.4 1,053.1 1,090.3 - - - - -
Corpaorate 8.3 9.7 8.5 20.4 - - - - -
Total Depreciation 1,441.5 1,377.0 1,840.4 2,738.8 2,898.2 3,057.7 3,180.7 3,285.5 3,390.3
Tax Schedule
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Tax Payable 1,055.5 1,124.0 1,723.1 2,400.9 3,221.6 3,764.1 4,378.9 4,979.8 5,609.4
Tax Paid (827.5) 42.4 (874.9) (2,144.2) (2,877.1) (3,361.7) (3,910.7) (4,447.3) (5,009.7)
% of Taxes Payable 78.4% (3.8%) 50.8% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3% 89.3%
Tax Difference 228.0 1,166.4 848.2 256.7 344.4 402.5 468.2 532.4 599.8
Dividends
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Dividends Proposed ( Incl Tax ) 1,334.7 1,597.3 1,716.9 2,013.3 2,693.5 3,147.2 3,661.2 4,163.5 4,690.0
Dividends Paid ( Cash Flow Item ) 1,306.5 1,338.2 1,589.3 1,715.7 2,295.4 2,682.0 3,120.0 3,548.1 3,996.7
Payout % of Proposed 97.89% 83.78% 92.57% 85.22% 85.22% 85.22% 85.22% 85.22% 85.22%
Balance to BS ( Provisions ) 28.2 259.1 127.6 297.6 398.1 465.2 541.2 615.4 693.3
iGTAE:
Can we maintain the
same percent as the last
Longterm Investments historical year for this?
Long Term Investments 6,269.4 9,387.4 5,474.8 7,752.6 8,873.5 9,631.9 10,510.1 11,443.5 12,418.9
Long Term Investments as % of sales 24.6% 31.2% 13.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3%
Cash Outflow ( Inflow ) 3,118.0 (3,912.6) 2,277.8 1,120.9 758.3 878.2 933.4 975.4
Investment Income % of Investments 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% iGTAE:
Investment Income 977.5 1,118.8 1,214.4 1,325.2 1,442.9 1,565.9 As investments are mostly in equities and mutual funds, are we
justified in making this assumption?
Sicne the investments are into equity and MF's , It mostly reflects the
investment management strategy, Not much details are available to
Debt Schedule make any assumptions , Hence assumed to be constant in volatile
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar,
2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
iGTAE:
Debt and Interest Let us consider a minimum cash balance and
use the remaining cash balance for repayment
of debt.
Secured Debt
Cash Credit 273.0 - - - - - ….WIP...
Term Loan 8,014.4 8,014.4 7,213.0 6,411.5 5,610.1 4,808.6
ECB - Financial Institution Loans 333.3 333.3 333.3 333.3 333.3 333.3
Total Secured Debt 8,620.7 8,347.7 7,546.3 6,744.8 5,943.4 5,141.9
Unsecured Debt
FCCB ( Foreign Currency Convertibles Bonds ) 6,522.0 - - - - -
Loans - Banks & Others. 3,499.3 3,499.3 3,149.4 2,799.4 2,449.5 2,099.6
Total Unsecured Debt 10,021.3 3,499.3 3,149.4 2,799.4 2,449.5 2,099.6
Revenues
Fiscal Year Ended 31 Mar, iGTAE:
2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Do we need this
section?
INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn INR mn
Operating Income
Segment : Chemicals 2,056.4 2,222.8 3,863.2 5,322.6
Segment : Fertilizers 1,519.0 2,077.9 2,412.5 2,727.6
iGTAE:
Do we need this
section?
Valuation Summary
VALUATION SUMMARY
Year-End Sales Change Net profit Change EPS Change DPS P/E EV / ROE ROCE Debt/
31-Mar (INR m) (%) (INR m) (%) (INR) (%) (INR) (x) EBITDA (x) (%) (%) Equity
Inorganic Chemicals 9,924.0 11,353.2 16,895.5 31,513.3 36,092.3 41,063.8 47,310.8 53,290.6 60,220.4
Fertilizers 15,517.5 18,728.2 23,285.2 26,582.7 30,403.8 31,114.9 31,449.0 32,464.1 32,843.6
Total Turnover 25,441.5 30,081.4 40,180.7 58,096.0 66,496.0 72,178.7 78,759.8 85,754.6 93,064.1
Growth 18.2% 33.6% 44.6% 14.5% 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.5%
EBITDA 4,440.3 5,134.7 7,518.0 10,066.5 12,666.1 14,361.7 16,206.5 17,982.8 19,843.7
Margin 17.5% 17.1% 18.7% 17.3% 19.0% 19.9% 20.6% 21.0% 21.3%
EBIT 2,998.8 3,757.7 5,677.6 7,327.7 9,767.9 11,304.0 13,025.8 14,697.3 16,453.4
Margin 11.8% 12.5% 14.1% 12.6% 14.7% 15.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.7%
Enterprise Value
Marketcap 59,153.2 60,432.5 66,955.3 66,955.3 66,955.3 66,955.3 66,955.3 66,955.3 66,955.3
Total Debt 7,655.4 13,242.2 18,276.9 12,120.0 11,847.0 10,695.6 9,544.3 8,392.9 7,241.5
Cash 726.9 7,516.7 1,164.5 1,544.4 3,114.8 5,194.1 8,813.6 13,675.8 19,423.5
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Enterprise Value 66,081.7 66,158.0 84,067.7 77,530.9 75,687.5 72,456.8 67,686.0 61,672.4 54,773.3
Net Interest Expense (Income) 509.1 245.7 504.8 823.9 848.2 789.3 706.2 623.1 540.0
Capital Expenditures - - - - - - - - -
Credit Statistics:
EBITDA /
Net Interest Expense 8.7x 20.9x 14.9x 12.2x 14.9x 18.2x 22.9x 28.9x 36.7x
EBITDA-CapEx /
Net Interest Expense 8.7x 20.9x 14.9x 12.2x 14.9x 18.2x 22.9x 28.9x 36.7x
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.6x 1.1x 2.3x 1.1x 0.7x 0.4x 0.0x NA NA
Total Debt/EBITDA 1.7x 2.6x 2.4x 1.2x 0.9x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x
Shares outstanding (m) 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1 215.1
Fully diluted (m) 215.1 219.8 243.5 243.5 243.5 243.5 243.5 243.5 243.5
EBIT 2,998.8 3,757.7 5,677.6 7,327.7 9,767.9 11,304.0 13,025.8 14,697.3 16,453.4
Plus: Depreciation 1,441.5 1,377.0 1,840.4 2,738.8 2,898.2 3,057.7 3,180.7 3,285.5 3,390.3
Plus: Amortization
EBITDA 4,440.3 5,134.7 7,518.0 10,066.5 12,666.1 14,361.7 16,206.5 17,982.8 19,843.7
Less: Capex (356.9) (691.8) (1,954.8) (5,319.8) (3,500.0) (3,500.0) (2,700.0) (2,300.0) (2,300.0)
Tax rate 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
Effective tax rate 32.4% 24.8% 28.7% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1%
EBITDA Less Capex 4,083.4 4,442.9 5,563.2 4,746.7 9,166.1 10,861.7 13,506.5 15,682.8 17,543.7
Less: Taxes on EBIT (1,049.6) (1,315.2) (1,987.2) (2,564.7) (3,418.8) (3,956.4) (4,559.0) (5,144.1) (5,758.7)
Less: Changes in Working Capital (556.6) (492.9) 5,120.9 (1,612.2) 901.7 789.1 904.5 944.7 995.3
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,477.2 2,634.8 8,696.9 569.8 6,649.1 7,694.4 9,852.0 11,483.5 12,780.3
6.0%
WACC calculations
Risk Free rate (10 yr bond) 7.2% Market cap 66,955.3
Risk Premium 30.8% Debt 12,120.0
Beta 0.3x Av cost of debt 4.8%
Cost of Equity 16.4% Market Returns 37.9% iGTAE:
How did we arrive at the terminal growth rate?
WACC 14.6% Terminal growth rate 6.0%
Terminal Growth rate usually is considered on basis of industry
DCF Calculation growth rate and GDP growth,ideally it should not be more than
country's GDP growth,hence we have kept it at 6.0%.
2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
No of years 1 2 3 4 5
Terminal Value Calculation
Terminal Value Growth Rate 6.0%
Projected Free Cash Flow 13,547.1
Discount Rate (WACC) 14.6%
Terminal Enterprise Value 157,386.1
Implied Term. Value EBITDA Multiple 7.9