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KPIT
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 2.8 11.7 108bp 39.6 2QFY11 235 36 15.5 24 % chg (yoy) 38.3 21.7 (187)bp 41.4
`162 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPIT) reported lower-than-expected performance. The company has transferred its diversified financial services (DFS) business to Intrasoft Technologies, as it was not the focus area of the company and was having just 2-3 clients. For FY2012, management maintained its USD revenue guidance of US$275mn-285mn i.e., 23-27% yoy growth. We recommend a Neutral rating the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2012, KPIT reported revenue of US$70.1mn, up merely 0.4% qoq, majorly led by 5.0% volume growth. Excluding revenue from the DFS business, on a like-to-like basis, revenue came in at US$70.16mn vs. US$67.08 in 1QFY2012, up 4.6% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `325cr, up 2.8% qoq. The companys EBITDA margin improved by 108bp qoq to 13.6% due to qoq INR depreciation against USD. PAT stood at `34cr, aided by higher other income, which includes net income of `2.3 from the transaction related to DFS carried out during the quarter. Outlook and valuation: KPITs management has guided for 23-27% yoy revenue growth for FY2012 (excluding ~US$9mn due to Systime). Although the company is growing ahead of other IT companies in terms of its revenue, on the operating front it is standing muted since the last few quarters. Also, the companys focus on the manufacturing vertical makes us slightly cautious on its FY2013 growth outlook, if any slowdown kicks in developed economies. Hence, we expect the companys revenue to post a CAGR of 24.7% and 25.2% in USD and INR terms, respectively, over FY2011-13E. On the EBITDA and PAT fronts, the company is expected to post a 26.4% and 24.9% CAGR over FY2011-13E. We value the company at 10x FY2013E EPS of `16.3, which gives us a target price of `163. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 26.7 16.7 22.2 34.4
3m (15.1)
1yr 0.6
(8.5) (14.8)
FY2009 793 32.1 66 28.6 23.1 8.4 19.2 7.8 40.4 48.5 1.6 6.9
FY2010 732 (7.8) 86 30.3 22.1 10.8 14.9 3.3 22.2 26.0 1.8 8.2
FY2011 1,007 37.6 95 10.6 15.1 11.4 14.2 2.2 15.7 15.4 1.2 8.0
FY2012E 1,372 36.4 129 35.5 14.8 14.1 11.4 1.8 17.7 18.9 0.9 6.3
FY2013E 1,578 14.9 148 15.1 15.4 16.3 9.9 1.5 17.1 18.6 0.8 5.0
Srishti Anand
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
% chg (qoq) 2.8 0.4 7.8 5.3 11.7 22.4 8.3 24.2 35.0 23.7 38.3 39.6 51.0 108bp 51bp 244bp
% chg (yoy) 38.3 41.2 33.1 41.9 21.7 38.2 16.8 318.6 56.3 157.3 41.9 41.4 38.0 (187)bp (186)bp (14)bp
% chg (yoy) 47.2 54.2 35.1 47.5 19.4 27.9 16.9 33.0 49.6 151.2 34.7 33.7 26.3 (305)bp (256)bp (115)bp
(%)
4QFY11
1QFY12
KPITs revenue performance came on the back of modest growth across all its major strategic business units (SBUs). IES records decent growth: The integrated enterprise solutions (IES) SBU (contributed 38.5% to revenue) reported a 5.5% qoq decline in revenue because DFS revenue of which declined substantially qoq was a part of IES SBU. On a like-to-like basis, revenue from IES SBU grew by 4.5% qoq. The company is witnessing increasing traction for Oracle offerings in the US market, mainly for transformational deals. Also, KPITs focus on supply-chain management and logistics through value-chain planning, oracle transportation management (OTM), manufacturing execution system, enterprise software support and consulting helped it to retain its continuous growth momentum. Going ahead, with the integration of Systime (acquired in May 2011), the combined Oracle practice is expected to reach US$125mn-150mn by FY2013. Auto and engineering SBU continues its momentum: The auto and engineering SBU (contributed 27.6% to revenue) posted 6.8% qoq growth in revenue, with revenue coming at US$19.4mn. In this SBU, demand for practices such as power train, infotainment, mechanical engineering and design services, in-vehicle networks and hybrid technologies was spread across geographies. Acquisition of In2Soft GmbH further aided the SBUs revenue. KPIT is looking to increase the share of non-liner revenue (IP-led revenue) in this SBU to improve the quality of revenue as well as assist in improving margins; and as part of its effort to increase non-linear revenue, KPIT has entered into an engagement with a Japanese tier-I company for AUTOSAR license sale for its new vehicle program. SAP maintains its growth trajectory: The SAP SBU (contributed 30.6% to revenue) registered 7.9% qoq growth in its revenue to US$21.5mn. KPIT has a strong order pipeline in this SBU for solutions and services in areas such as core ERP, business intelligence, customer relationship management and application maintenance and support, mainly from the US. Management indicated that it is making investments to capture volumes in the SAP SME business and has got its first engagement in this space.
SSG leads growth: The semiconductor solutions group (SSG) SBU (contributed 3.3% to revenue) registered 39.5% qoq growth in its revenue to US$2.4mn. Further, KPIT is now focusing on improving the volume of business from SSG customers by practices such as analog mixed signal, semiconductor multimarket embedded solutions and system on chip.
The companys anchor vertical, automotive, transportation and manufacturing (ATM) (contributed 66.4% to revenue) registered strong revenue growth of 9.1% qoq during the quarter. The company is witnessing modest traction in this vertical as automobile companies try to improve efficiency, safety and comfort as well as due to regulatory standards. Also, rise in demand for smaller vehicles, especially in India and China, is also one of the drivers of the building deal pipeline of this vertical. In the energy and utilities vertical, IT spend is coming from areas such as customer information systems and business analytics.
Geography wise, revenue from the US grew by 9.2% qoq. However, revenue from Europe and emerging markets (rest of the world) declined by 1.7% and 18.4% qoq, respectively. The decline in revenue from emerging markets is largely because of variations in fixed price contracts; as such, there are no delays or cancellations of any projects. The company is planning its footprint in the Brazilian market as its largest client, Cummins is increasing its business in Brazil, which will give KPIT a good business opportunity to increase its revenue traction from Cummins.
Offshore as well as onsite utilization increased by 158bp and 54bp qoq to 72.81% and 91.26%, respectively, during the quarter. The company is targeting to improve its utilization level, onsite and offshore, to 75% and 93% in the coming quarters, respectively, which can act as an important lever to pull up its margins.
91.3
(%)
70 60 50 2QFY11 3QFY11
Onsite utilisation
67.9
67.6
69.9
71.2
72.8
4QFY11
1QFY12
Offshore utilisation
2QFY12
Margins expand
On the operational front, KPITs EBITDA margin increased by 108bp qoq (below expectations) to 13.6%, majorly aided by lower S&M expenses and qoq INR depreciation against USD. Going ahead, management expects FY2012 exit rate for the companys operating margin to be 15-16%.
(%)
25 15.5 15 12.0 2QFY11 14.1 14.6 12.6 9.6 1QFY12 13.6 10.1 2QFY12
EBIT margin
11.0 3QFY11
Gross margin
9.1 4QFY11
EBITDA margin
Client pyramid
KPIT added four new clients during 2QFY2012. The total active client base of the company stands at 163 as of 2QFY2012 against 159 in 1QFY2012. The companys revenue from its top client, Cummins, grew by 12.5% qoq in 2QFY2012. Management foresees an increase in IT and engineering spends coming in from the Cummins account in FY2012, as Cummins is making investments in future technologies and emerging markets. Revenue from the companys top 10 clients (excluding Cummins) grew by 8.9% qoq during the quarter.
2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 23.0 55.0 90+ 3 147 39 24.1 51.2 90+ 5 152 40 21.1 55.4 90+ 3 155 40 20.7 49.3 90+ 4 159 48 22.6 48.1 90+ 4 163 51
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days Payable days Working capital days 2.5 74 51 23 1.9 79 67 12 1.6 71 52 19 1.7 72 52 20 1.7 72 52 20 48.5 88.0 40.4 26.0 47.6 22.2 15.4 32.0 15.7 18.9 32.1 17.7 18.6 32.7 17.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 2.8 1.8 40.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.5 1.3 22.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 15.7 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.6 1.2 17.7 0.8 1.1 0.1 1.6 1.1 17.1 8.4 14.0 0.9 20.8 10.8 14.7 0.9 48.8 11.4 16.7 0.9 73.9 14.1 20.4 0.9 89.0 16.3 25.8 0.9 106.2 19.2 11.6 7.8 0.5 1.6 6.9 4.4 14.9 11.0 3.3 0.5 1.8 8.2 2.6 14.2 9.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 8.0 1.7 11.4 7.9 1.8 0.5 0.9 6.3 1.5 9.9 6.3 1.5 0.5 0.8 5.0 1.3 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
KPIT Cummins No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13