Climate change in Durham By Dr V.

Standen, Durham, UK The climate change debate probably generates as much heat as the potential culprits themselves and sheds little light on what is actually happening. At least in Durham (UK) we can go to the Meteorological Office web site and look at our own weather data. The Durham observatory has measured and recorded temperature, rainfall and other information from 1880 up to the present day - it is available online in the historic data section to see for yourselves. There is quite a lot of information so I have extracted some to show as graphs below. The Durham data Looking at the January minimum temperatures it seems that there has been an increase of approximately 1 degree centigrade in 100 years. This warming is mainly due to the absence of very low temperatures since 1980 until 2010and 2011. The number of days with air frost has also declined. However the graph showing the July maximum temperatures shows virtually no change. Most accounts of global change refer to average temperatures for a whole year. Taken as an average the Durham measurements show that temperatures have increased - but we can see that it is due to less cold in winter rather than more heat in summer so we have to treat averages with care if we intend to use them to manage habitats for future change. Of course this is only one small set of information, but it shows that average predictions based on lots of different meteorological stations using computer modelling must be open to interpretation and looked at very carefully. What caused the warming The usual reasons given for the observed increase in average temperature worldwide are:a) part of a natural cycle The natural cycles definitely exist but they are difficult to explain and predict. b) a greenhouse effect caused by increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The increase in carbon dioxide has been recorded and it is correlated with increased temperatures. However there has not been enough consideration given to which is cause and which effect. Does increased carbon dioxide cause warming via the greenhouse effect - or does warming cause the bacteria present in soil and peat to respire faster? Soil bacteria use carbon locked up in soil and peat and release carbon dioxide. There is a lot of soil and peat, especially in the northern hemisphere.

What effect will warming have on our wildlife? Many people are working to predict the various effects of climate change. For example one project at Durham University measures the effects of less snow cover and consequently more exposed ground at high latitudes. All these studies will contribute to our ability to predict climate change and its effects on plants and animals in future. Figure 1) The January minimum temperature (deg centigrade) recorded at the Durham (UK) observatory each year 1880-2010.
Jan min temp degC
6 4 2 0 1860 -2 -4 -6 -8

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Figure 2) The July maximum temperature (deg centigrade) recorded at the Durham (UK) observatory each year 1880-2009.
July max degC
26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020