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    The document discusses the development of the solar PV market in India. It notes that while large opportunities exist to develop solar power in sunbelt countries, the top 10 PV markets to date have been outside of sunbelt regions. European initiatives have been a key driver of market development, led by aggressive subsidies in countries like Germany, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic. The document also outlines India's growing interest in solar PV development under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, with 343 applications received for 150 MW of projects. Realization of expected cost reductions will be essential for the long-term success of solar PV in India.

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    The document discusses the development of the solar PV market in India. It notes that while large opportunities exist to develop solar power in sunbelt countries, the top 10 PV markets to date have been outside of sunbelt regions. European initiatives have been a key driver of market development, led by aggressive subsidies in countries like Germany, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic. The document also outlines India's growing interest in solar PV development under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, with 343 applications received for 150 MW of projects. Realization of expected cost reductions will be essential for the long-term success of solar PV in India.

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    28 views9 pages

    Development of the Indian Solar PV Market

    Uploaded by

    Ankit Verma
    The document discusses the development of the solar PV market in India. It notes that while large opportunities exist to develop solar power in sunbelt countries, the top 10 PV markets to date have been outside of sunbelt regions. European initiatives have been a key driver of market development, led by aggressive subsidies in countries like Germany, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic. The document also outlines India's growing interest in solar PV development under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, with 343 applications received for 150 MW of projects. Realization of expected cost reductions will be essential for the long-term success of solar PV in India.

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    of 9

    Development of Indian Solar PV Market

    Harsh Agrawal Morgan Stanley Infrastructure

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Large Opportunity to Develop Solar Power in Sunbelt


    9 Out of Top 10 PV Markets till Date Outside Sunbelt

    Source: (1) (2) (3)

    NASA, IEA Technology Roadmap Solar photovoltaic energy, EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014, A.T. Kearney analysis, EPIA Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition October 2010 For systems larger than 1 MWp; 85% per formance ratio Cumulative installed capacity 2009 Electricity demand 2007

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    European Initiatives Key Driver of Market Development


    Market Driven by Aggressive (Sometimes Unsustainable) Subsidies

    SPAIN

    India France

    Portugal Rest of World

    Greece Belgium

    Rest of EU Czech Republic

    Spain USA

    China Japan

    South Korea Italy Germany

    Source: EPIA Global Market Outllook for Photovoltaics until 2014 3

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Current Global Situation


    Germany announced mid-year 2011 and 2012 cuts in feed-in tariff
    No hard cap on installations yet Reduction in installation run-rate, however soft-landing likely with Germany remaining leader in installations in near term

    Spain is finalizing proposed cuts in feed-in tariffs


    Cap on subsidized production from existing solar installations Future cuts in Solar PV, Solar CSP and Wind

    Growing demand from Italy and Japan from closing gap of solar to grid parity
    Demand in US expected to pick up India and China have announced national solar incentive schemes

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Large Opportunity in India and China


    Both Countries Have Indicated Solar Priorities (JNNSM and Global Sun Programs)

    Source: EPIA report Unlocking the Sunbelt Potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition October 2010

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Strong Interest Shown in Solar PV Under NVVN


    343 Applications Received for 150 MW, 30 Projects Awarded

    S. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    Selected Bidder Camelot Enterprises DDE Renewable Finehope Allied Karnataka Power Corp Newton Solar Infra Greentech Power Mahindra Solar One Azure Rithwik Projects Saisudhir Maharashtra Seamless

    S. No 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

    Selected Bidder Alex Spectrum IOCL Welspun Solar CCCL Infra Alex Solar Punj Lloyd Bhaskar Green Power Oswal wollen Mills Amrit Animation Precision Technik Knowledge Infra

    12
    13 14 15

    Viraj Renewables
    NorthWest Sun Edison Energy Elect Manf. Company

    27
    28 29 30

    Trump Informatics
    Kriti Credit & Holdings Andhrasol Energy Torrens

    Sources: NVVN website

    Source: NVVN website

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Illustrative Global Solar PV Tariffs


    Selected Solar PV Tariffs Globally
    US Cents/KWh

    75

    55 50

    52

    57 52 38 32 30 24 30 30

    42 35 25

    0 Italy France Spain USA (Florida, Vermont) Germany India

    Current
    Source: Industry Sources

    Range

    Historical Peaks

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Realization of Expected Cost Curve Essential


    Future Cost Curve: Essential for Long-Term Success of PV in India
    /kWp
    3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2,800 2,445 2,600 2,215 1,908 1,640 1,409 1,214 1,135 1,062 2,193 1,982 1,804 1,644 1,549 1,460 1,378

    Pricing Capability (1) for Large PV Systems (2) (/kWp)

    (56)%
    1,301 1,229

    (66)%
    995 933 875

    Source: NREL, EIA PV technology roadmap 2010, Greenpeace Solar Generation 2008 V, EPIA Set for 2020, IEA Technology Roadmap, A.T. Kearney analysis, Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaics. Second edition October 2010 (1) In real terms 2010 (2) Turnkey PV systems larger than 1 MWp, further details see Appendix

    prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011 prototype template (5428278)\print library_new_final.ppt 2/1/2011

    Observations
    Increasing scale of JNNSM and solar opportunities
    Actual cost curve realization in India Land issues Evolution of policy and subsidy support for larger projects

    Non-recourse financing availability


    Rates and Tenor Thin film vs. c-Si Impact of a stronger RMB and weaker EUR Some areas of interest Integrated Solar / Wind Opportunities Off-grid / mini-grid opportunities Upfront capital subsidies (rooftop, etc.)

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