September 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing Giving Trends Through August 2011

the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.
charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis
august 2011 standard report
The Atlas of Giving standard edition is the exclusive monthly resource for nationwide U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts. It provides monthly results and trends information for the past 12 months, as well as forecasts for the coming year. Commentary and practical suggestions are included in this complimentary tool.
P R O F E S S I O N A L
E D I T I O N
The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION represents a quantum leap forward in fundraising intelligence. This detailed resource includes U.S. charitable giving results and forecasts by sector (religion, health, education, etc.), source (individuals, bequests, etc.) and state. Benefit from valuable information offered in this monthly report available via subscription.
custom
The Atlas of Giving Custom model applies the same methods used to create the Atlas of Giving to develop a forecasting algorithm that is unique to your organization. Your nonprofits gift history and other information is used with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue model. Realize exponential return on investment from this revolutionary opportunity.
info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 2

2011 ATLAS of Giving, info@atlasofgiving.com. This material is provided for the intended ATLAS of Giving, Pat. Pend., member only. Distribution of this information without express written permission is prohibited. The ATLAS of Giving forecasts are provided for informational purposes only. ATLAS of Giving disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Current month forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.
contents
national giving giving at a glance results & trends
calendar year to date results & trends last month results & trends 3 month results & trends 6 month results & trends 12 month results & trends
p a ge 4 p a ge 7
forecast
calendar year forecast this month forecast 3 month forecast 6 month forecast 12 month forecast
p a ge 8
insight & analysis model calculations faqs contact us coming next month
p a ge 1 0 p a ge 1 3 p a ge 1 4 p a ge 1 7 p a ge 1 9
From time to time, reported economic variables are revised by the reporting entity. I n cases where variables related to the ATLAS of Giving data are revised, our figures will be updated to reflect the most current reported data.

giving at a glance
LAST MONTH RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)
Year to date charitable giving through August 2011 totals $212.26 billion up 8.3% over last year. Growth in 2011 giving continues to slow as the year progresses. Giving for the month of August was down 1.0% over July, and 3% less than the April 2011 monthly peak.
$28.81
$28.51
down 1.0%
July
August
2011 MONTHLY GIVING RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)
$29.30 $29.10 $28.55 $28.16 $28.71 $28.67 $28.81 $28.51
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

The forecast indicates that 2011 giving will total $342.43 billion 6.4% higher than last year. The forecast for the next 12 months shows an interesting intersection of giving as compared to last year. It is projected that 2012 giving will decline through May and will begin to improve slowly through next August.
NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $28.51 $28.19
down 1.1%
August
S e p t e m be r
12 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)

2010 / 2011 2011 / 2012
$29.63 $28.19 $28.36 $28.16 $28.16 $28.55 $28.71 $29.30 $29.10 $28.63 $27.32 $27.47 $27.91 $27.73 $27.65 $27.79 $28.15 $29.08
$29.99
$27.91
$28.67
$28.81
$28.51
$26.99

national giving
giving results & trends
Giving has been strong this year, despite recent declines. August giving totaled $28.51 billion, bringing the year to date total to $212.26 billion an increase of 8.3% versus last year.
calendar ytd
Up 8.3%
CALENDAR YTD TREND ($ BILLIONS) $212.26 $229.81 last month
Up 8.2%
(versus same period prior year)
2010
2011 past 3 months
Amount ($ Billions) September October November December January February March April May June July August Total
2009 / 2010 $25.31 $25.47 $26.09 $26.22 $26.18 $26.27 $26.80 $27.06 $26.48 $26.22 $26.89 $26.36 $315.35
2010 / 2011 $26.99 $27.32 $27.47 $27.91 $28.16 $28.55 $28.71 $29.30 $29.10 $28.67 $28.81 $28.51 $339.50
% Change 6.6% 7.3% 5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 7.1% 8.3% 9.9% 9.3% 7.1% 8.2% 7.7%
Up 8.2%
past 6 months
Up 8.3%
past 12 months
Up 7.7%

national giving
giving forecast
September giving is forecast to decrease 1.1% versus August results for a total of $28.19 billion. Despite the decline, calendar year giving is expected to be 6.4% higher than 2010.
calendar year forecast
Up 6.4%
CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) this month $321.95 $342.43
Up 4.4%
(versus same period last year)
2010
2011
next 3 months
Up 3.6%
Amount ($ Billions) September October November December January February March April May June July August Total 2010 / 2011 $26.99 $27.32 $27.47 $27.91 $28.16 $28.55 $28.71 $29.30 $29.10 $28.67 $28.81 $28.51 $339.50 2011 / 2012 $28.19 $28.36 $28.16 $27.91 $27.73 $27.65 $27.79 $28.15 $28.63 $29.08 $29.63 $29.99 $341.27 % Change 4.4% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% -1.5% -3.2% -3.2% -3.9% -1.6% 1.4% 2.8% 5.2% 0.5%
next 6 months
Up 1.0%
next 12 months
Up 0.5%

coming soon ...

A quantum leap forward in fundraising intelligence.
of
atlas
TM
PROFESSIONAL EDITION
Monthly giving forecasts, results, trends and analysis Now indexed by charitable sector and gift source in the Atlas of Giving expanded PROFESSIONAL EDITION! Health Education Religion Arts Nature / Environment International Human / Disaster Services Society Benefit Individual giving Corporate giving Foundation grants Bequest giving
Plus ... Trends and forecasts by State!
BONUS: Each report contains Professional Presentation Graphics ready for you to use in your own presentations!
special introductory offer:

Get 12 months full access of the Atlas of Giving expanded Professional Edition for just $99. Details coming soon to your inbox!
info@atlasofgiving.com atlasofgiving.com
custom
How much money will YOU raise next quarter next year?
The same methods that were used to create the Atlas of Giving can be employed to create an Atlas of Giving Custom model for your organization. We can identify a unique forecasting algorithm that is specifically tailored to an individual nonprofit. Your organizations giving history and other information is used with economic and demographic variables to develop a custom revenue version. The Atlas Custom forecasting tool creates efficiencies and opportunities that have never before been available
Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

to maximize their potential
Plan budgets with more precision than ever Realize exponential return on investment
Email today for more information.
info@atlasofgiving.com
insight & analysis
insight & analysis

the economy
The greatest contributing factor to charitable giving results in the U.S. is the economy. Good economic conditions produce good charitable giving results a poor economy hurts charitable giving. August economic factors were mixed, but on balance were decidedly negative. The U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit very slowly this is welcomed news for charitable giving. Leading Economic Indicators were up again in August. This is very good news indeed. It means that the chances of a double-dip recession occurring before February or March of 2012 are unlikely. Consumer Confidence had a big decline in August. This cannot be good for giving especially for organizations that rely on small gifts from small donors or raise a significant amount from special events. People who dont feel good about spending their money on consumer items will certainly not feel good about making charitable contributions or participating in fundraising events. Inflation is beginning to put pressure on the charitable giving economy. In August the rate of inflation increased to 3.8%. This means that families are spending more on life necessities like food, fuel, utilities, clothing and repairs. As disposable income decreases, families find it more challenging to make charitable contributions. Stocks took a hit in August. Most of the month, stock values fell sharply, but there was a late-month rally to take out some of the sting. Still, the Dow was down 3.96% in August and reduced the year to date return to a lowly 2.14%. The impact on giving is significant. Donors who give out of assets rather than income are affected. Individual campaign donors, major gift donors, grant making foundations, corporations and estates have less to give when market values decline.

insight & analysis

other factors
Political campaign fundraising is increasing and taking money out of the charitable giving economy. In 2011, between $400 million and $500 million has been contributed to House, Senate and presidential candidates and their national parties. Though this is not yet statistically remarkable in an annual charitable giving environment of more than $325 billion, political contributions are growing and will make an increasing impact on charitable giving through the end of 2011 and an even greater increasing impact in 2012. Hurricane Irene affected a huge portion of the Atlantic Seaboard from North Carolina through New England. Damage has been estimated at more than $7 billion. Charitable giving in the region has been focused primarily on disaster relief. Thankfully, significant impact on 2011 outside of localized areas is not expected.

insight & analysis

suggestions for professional practitioners
Fundraising: The national growth rate in giving is slowing and will go negative near the beginning of 2012. Aggressive solicitation and promotion through November would be a good strategy as the giving environment continues to deteriorate. The current forecast indicates that avoiding the January through May 2012 promotion period is advisable. Moving fundraising promotion up or delaying until June will produce better results. Religious organizations* and church results are forecast to be unusually poor from December through July. Intensifying solicitation before year-end is important. Nature / Environment organizations* are forecast to perform better than other sectors take advantage of the opportunity by intensifying promotions in coming months. Human Services / Disaster organizations* would be well-advised to lay low until the summer months. Aggressive promotion should be planned for that time frame.
Budgeting: Proceed with extreme caution. Be especially cautious if your fiscal year begins September through March. These organizations should prepare for flat giving income or even a moderate decline of 2%. Organizations whose fiscal years begin in May through July should adjust current budgets to the coming decline in first half giving in 2012 now. Current forecast suggests that giving recovery will begin with the start of your next fiscal year.
* For more detailed information, subscribe to the Atlas of Giving Professional Edition an exclusive monthly resource for giving results and forecasts by sector, source and state.

model calculations
model calculations
precise results and trends
Mathematical analysis of over 60 variables and 42 years of comprehensive giving data was used to create the Atlas of Giving model. Results calculations correlate to overall giving in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%. The margin of error for the model is +/- 4% in the current month.
reliable forecasts
Margins of error for projections increase with time as illustrated below.
FORECAST MARGIN OF ERROR $29.00 $28.00 $27.00 $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 Margins of error for forecast projections increase with time.
Forecasts have proven very reliable since the Atlas of Giving was created in 2010. Accuracy rates range from over 91% for one year projections, to over 99% for one month forecasts.
Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

faqs
faqs
What is the Atlas of Giving?
The Atlas of Giving is the economic intelligence tool for charitable giving. The Atlas was originally created by PhilanthroMAX, LLC (www.philanthromax.com). It is a precise mathematical formula that relies on specific, defined economic and demographic input factors. The formula accurately matches published giving data for the last 42 years. It's coefficient of correlation to past published data is 99.5%. Because the factors included in the formula are reported monthly, the Atlas of Giving is able to measure charitable giving as it occurs monthly and does not need to rely on limited surveys or delayed reporting data. Other charitable giving indexes rely on surveys and fail to account for large segments of the giving economy such as contributions to churches, donor advised funds, some of the largest nonprofits, many small nonprofits and private foundations.
Each monthly Atlas of Giving includes results and trends for the past 12 months, as well as forecasts for the next 12 months.
The Atlas of Giving accounts for the entire giving economy and is the most precise measurement of total charitable giving in the United States. The most exciting innovation that comes from this technology is the ability to reliably forecast charitable giving. The complimentary Atlas of Giving Standard report and the subscription-based Atlas Professional Edition contain a monthly measurement of charitable giving, a 12 month forecast of charitable giving (updated monthly), insight and analysis of factors and events that affect giving and practical suggestions based on the giving environment and forecast. The Atlas of Giving PROFESSIONAL EDITION (Atlas PRO) also contains the monthly measurement, forecast and analysis by 8 sectors, 4 sources and 50 states plus the District of Columbia. It also includes a complete PowerPoint presentation that is updated each month. The introductory membership price is $99 annually for the monthly Atlas Pro report and PowerPoint presentation.

faqs
What are the practical benefits of the Atlas of Giving?
Raise more money with vital, timely information. Respond immediately to events that affect giving. Adjust spending and promotion to current giving conditions and forecasts. Create more effective and efficient budgets. Examine fundraising results in real time. Review chapter / unit / region results in real time. Evaluate staff performance with an accurate benchmark. Gain a competitive fundraising edge. Make your organization more effective and efficient. Monitor effects of events and policy changes on charitable giving.
How was the Atlas of Giving created?

The formulas were built upon the hypothesis that macro-economic factors, macro-demographic factors, along with national and international events could be used to measure and predict charitable giving. A team of 25 PhD level mathematicians, analysts and statisticians then evaluated more than 60 possible variables and their interactions to create an algorithm that was compared with published annual giving data going back to 1968. The algorithm correlates to giving history 99.5%.
How precise is it?

The monthly measurement of giving is extremely precise. The coefficient of correlation (reliability) for the index is 99.5% when compared with 42 years of published annual giving data. The forecast is very reliable. Like any forecast, however, the level of reliability decreases and the margin of error increases as the forecasting period increases. The forecast is updated monthly to account for changing events, economic conditions and policy changes. The chart illustrates that in 2010, the Atlas projections for August 2010 were 99.5% accurate. Projections at that time for the next 12 months (through July of 2011) were 91.2% accurate.
August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months
Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70
Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50
Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%

faqs
How is the Atlas of Giving different from other reports and indexes?
The Atlas of Giving is the only resource that provides an ongoing forecast of giving which is updated every month. Other resources are singularly focused on looking back in time. The Atlas of Giving is forward focused. The Atlas provides information that has immediate utility and provides future benefits. Other resources are available only on an annual basis and some are released six months after the end of the reporting year. The Atlas reports national giving as it occurs monthly in the current year. The Atlas of Giving analyzes the effect of current events on charitable giving. Others analyze historical events and their impact on last years giving.
Is the Atlas of Giving useful for all types of NPOs (churches, schools, local charities, hospitals, etc.)?
The Atlas is useful for any organization, church or business which derives some portion of its income from charitable giving.
How does the Atlas of Giving account for world events and economic changes?
The ability to respond to and measure the impact of change on giving is an inherent component of the Atlas of Giving. Because the Atlas is updated monthly, Atlas followers get real-time analysis of changes and events as they unfold.
Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

Absolutely. We can create a unique model based on your giving data that will generate a custom forecast and index for your organization or church. Please contact us at info@atlasofgiving.com for more information about the Atlas of Giving Custom model.

faqs
What is PhilanthroMAX?
PhilanthroMAX is an innovative firm that created the Atlas of Giving. It was founded upon the idea that philanthropic effectiveness can be maximized through products that provide analytics, evaluation and databased planning and accountability. PhilanthroMAX is led by experienced and successful fundraising executives who understand both sides of the philanthropic equation giving and getting. We specialize in providing products that use business principles and techniques to make giving and getting more effective, efficient and accountable. Our solutions can help: Deliver better results or improve effectiveness and efficiency. Expertly start new philanthropic ventures. Develop objective analysis of existing programs. Create product solutions for donor retention, planned giving, major gifts and annual programs. Achieve success during uncertain times.
For more information, please visit www.philanthromax.com.
Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

Yes. We can accommodate a wide variety of special needs. Please contact us to discuss your individual objectives and requirements.
contact us
info@atlasofgiving.com 877.414.0078

Raise more money now.

Meet short-term revenue goals Improve donor retention Open new revenue sources Expand existing income streams
ContactustodaytogetGUARANTEEDresults. Ifwedontproduce,youdontpay.Itsthatsimple.
877-414-0078 | philanthromax.com
PhilanthroMAXleaderscreatedtheAtlasofGivingTM. Letusputouringenuitytoworkforyourorganization.
The Atlas of Giving is updated monthly based on the most current data available to help you make educated decisions and raise more money.
coming in the next monthly report

September 2011 Results and Updated Forecasts through August 2012!
Will the recent declines in charitable giving continue through October? Will continued stock market fluctuations impact fourth quarter giving? Does the current forecast trend for improvements within one year continue?
Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!
Visit atlasofgiving.com to sign up to receive an email notice when the next report is available.


September 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing Giving Trends Through August 2011

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

September 2011 Atlas of Giving Report - Showing Giving Trends Through August 2011

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

the exclusive resource for monthly U.S.

charitable giving results, forecasts and analysis

august 2011 standard report

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 2

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 3

2011 MONTHLY GIVING RESULTS ($ BILLIONS)

$29.30 $29.10 $28.55 $28.16 $28.71 $28.67 $28.81 $28.51

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 4

NEXT MONTH FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) $28.51 $28.19

12 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 5

CALENDAR YTD TREND ($ BILLIONS) $212.26 $229.81 last month

(versus same period prior year)

2011 past 3 months

(versus same period prior year)

(versus same period prior year)

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 6

CALENDAR YEAR FORECAST ($ BILLIONS) this month $321.95 $342.43

(versus same period last year)

(versus same period last year)

(versus same period last year)

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 7

coming soon ...

Plus ... Trends and forecasts by State!

special introductory offer:

Schedule fundraising activities and campaigns

insight & analysis

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 10

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 11

insight & analysis

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 12

Forecast one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Reliability 99.5% 98-99% 94-95% 91-92%

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 13

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 14

How was the Atlas of Giving created?

How precise is it?

August 2010 to July 2011 one month 3 months 6 months 12 months

Forecast $26.51 $78.96 $156.64 $309.70

Actual $26.38 $77.61 $166.16 $339.50

Reliability 99.5% 98.3% 94.2% 91.2%

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 15

Can the Atlas of Giving be customized for my organization?

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 16

For more information, please visit www.philanthromax.com.

Will PhilanthroMAX perform special analytic projects for clients?

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 17

Raise more money now.

coming in the next monthly report

Be the first to see the future of charitable giving!

info@atlasofgiving.com august 2011 standard report page 19

You might also like