Responding to the Rice Crisis

How IRRI Can Work with Its Partners

Contents
Executive summary What is happening? What needs to be done? 1. Bring about an agronomic revolution to reduce existing yield gaps 2. Accelerate the delivery of new postharvest technologies to reduce losses 3. Accelerate the introduction and adoption of higher-yielding rice varieties 4. Strengthen and upgrade breeding pipelines for developing new varieties and hybrids 5. Accelerate research on the worlds thousands of rice varieties so scientists can use the vast reservoir of untapped genetic resources they contain 6. Develop a new generation of rice scientists and researchers for the public and private sectors 7. Provide rice policy support 8. Resources required 1 2 4 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 14

2008

Executive summary
A second Green Revolution in the rice bowls of the world is needed now as much as the first Green Revolution was needed 40 years ago to avoid famine. It must be sustainable and it will require both short- and long-term investments in R&D as the principal vehicle for technology improvement. The best strategy for finding the right balance between the need to keep rice prices low for poor buyers of rice and to keep them high enough for farmers to improve their livelihoods is to ensure that production increases faster than demand, and that it is highly profitable, resource-efficient, and sustainable. Scientific and technical opportunities for this exist, but, because of a lack of resources, they have not been fully exploited. Governments in the rice-producing countries of the world must lead this effort and make both resources and supporting policies available so that national agricultural research and extension systems (NARES), the private sector, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), and other civil society organizations can carry out most of these activities. International institutions such as IRRI must play a leading role in accelerating the development of key innovations and new products, supporting new delivery mechanisms through public- and private-sector channels, and building capacity. IRRI can best contribute to solving the current global rice crisis as well as to preventing such crises in the future through additional investments in seven research and development areas: . Depending on production conditions, an unexploited yield gap of 2 t/ha currently exists in most farmers fields in the rice-growing areas of Asia. This yield gap can be reduced through the integrated use of stress-resistant varieties and better crop management practices. This requires funding support to programs aimed at improving farmers skills in practices such as land preparation, water and nutrient management, and control of various pests, diseases, and weeds. 2. Postharvest includes the storing, drying, and processing of rice. Considerable losses occur in terms of both quantity and quality of rice during postharvest operations because of the use of old and inefficient practices. Active promotion of new technologies that are currently available for on-farm storage and drying will reduce losses considerably. Another key issue is to accelerate the development of new varieties with grain-quality characteristics that will help to reduce postharvest losses. New rice varieties are available today that can increase production, but farmers are not using them because the systems that introduce new varieties are under-resourced. Enhancing germplasm exchange, variety testing, and release pipelines can make current advanced high-yielding stress-resistant varieties and hybrids more widely available to farmers in irrigated and rainfed lowland areas of Asia. Funding for the development of new rice varieties has declined steadily over the past decade or more. This must be reversed in order to develop the next generations of new rice varieties that will be required for productivity growth in sustainable agriculture. Several opportunities are available to accelerate the development of new rice varieties and hybrids with higher yield, better grain quality, increased tolerance of abiotic stresses, and with multiple resistance to insects and diseases through new molecular breeding approaches. Working with IRRI, the worlds nations have spent decades carefully collecting thousands of rice types. More than 00,000 rice types are now being carefully managed and used at IRRI and in Asian nations. However, only a small fraction of the genetic resources has been characterized in detail or used widely. New molecular methods have now opened the door for revealing the valuable alleles in each accession. Part of the current rice crisis reflects the lack of investment in science, including human capital investment. The education and training of young scientists and researchers are also a vital concern for the rice industry. Asia and Africa urgently need to train a new generation of rice scientists and researchers to enable them to exploit 

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the developments in modern science more effectively. 7. Conducive policy environments are needed to achieve fuller use of technology for rapid production growth in an efficient, equitable, and sustainable manner. Rice production is being affected by several dynamic economic factors and their potential impact can be manipulated through suitable policy reforms. The identification of policy constraints, the generation of alternative policy options, and policy advocacy are therefore essential. To accelerate product-oriented research and contribute scientifically and technically to more collaborative efforts in key countries, IRRI will need additional annual funding of $17 million for a minimum of 5 years.

What is happening?
Of the worlds . billion poor people, almost 700 million people with income of less than a dollar a day reside in the rice-growing countries of Asia. Rice is a staple food in Asia. It accounts for more than 40% of the calorie consumption of most Asians. Poor people spend as much as 3040% of their income just to buy rice. The amount of rice production and price are thus important factors in determining the progress that can be made in reducing poverty in Asia. Keeping the price of rice

low and affordable to the poor is crucial for poverty reduction. Given this, the current sharp upward movement in the price of rice is a major cause for concern. The world price of Thai rice 5% brokena popular export gradewas under $200 per ton in 2000, but it rose to more than $360 per ton by December 2007 and has more than doubled since then (Fig. ), reaching $,000 per ton in recent weeks. Major exporting countries such as Vietnam and India have announced export restrictions to protect their domestic consumers. These restrictions have further contributed to the recent increase in rice price as the rice supply in the world market has dwindled. In several countries, food riots have occurred and soldiers are guarding food trucks to prevent looting. Many factors, both long- and short-term, have contributed to the rice crisis: At a fundamental level, the sustained rise in the price over the past 78 years indicates that we have been consuming more than we have been producing (Fig. 2). Rice stocks are being depleted rapidly, with current stocks at their lowest since the late 970s. A major reason for the imbalance between the long-term demand and supply is the slowing growth in yield, which has decreased substantially over the past 05 years in most countries. Globally, yields have risen by less than % per year in recent yearsslower than popula-

Fig. 1. Monthly prices of oil, urea, and rice (Thai 5% broken), January 2000 to April 2008. Data from The Pinksheet, World Bank.

tion growth and down from well over 2% during the Green Revolution period of 970-90. An important factor accounting for the slowdown in yield growth is the insufficient public investment in agricultural research and developmentthe very engine that drove productivity growth to begin with. Investments in irrigation, which peaked during the Green Revolution period, have decreased substantially. Existing irrigation infrastructure has deteriorated considerably because of inadequate maintenance. The steady decline in rice prices through the 990s led many governments to believe there was a perpetual supply of plentiful food. Lower prices were taken for granted, leading to complacency in agricultural research and development (Fig. 2). The possibility of increasing the rice area is almost exhausted in most Asian countries. In many areas, highly productive rice land has been lost to housing and industrial development. Three key factors have contributed to steady growth in demand for rice. First, population growth, which continues across the rice-consuming world, is outstripping production growth, and this is projected to get worse. Second, rapid economic growth in large countries such as India and China has increased demand for cereals, for both consumption and livestock

production. This income-driven growth in demand has pushed up the price of cereals in general. Third, rice is an increasingly popular food in Africa, with imports into Africa accounting for almost one-third of the total world trade. It is expected that demand from Africa will continue to grow, and there is little chance for a major turnaround in African rice production within the next 5 years. The price of oil has increased rapidly during the past year. In addition to contributing to general inflationary pressure, this has pushed up freight costs for countries that import rice. The world price of fertilizerswhich are essential for rice productionhas increased sharply, with the price of urea doubling over the past four years (Fig. ). Rising oil prices and concerns about climate change have also spurred rapid investments particularly in developed countriesin biofuels such as ethanol produced from maize grain or biodiesel produced from oilseeds. This has increased pressure on international trade of grains and livestock feed, as well as on fertilizers and agricultural land in some countries. Until now, the direct impact of biofuels on rice production and rice trade has likely been small. However, if the industry continues to grow, rice production and prices may be affected more seriously.

Fig. 2. Rice prices and the race between rice production and consumption (USDA, 5-year moving averages). IRRIs budget changes are indicated as a proxy for investments in R&D and infrastructure directed to productivity increases.

Natural disasters, such as flooding, drought, and typhoons, have contributed to recent production shortfalls. The steady rise in global temperatures because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is expected to hurt rice production. Further, humaninduced climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. Many pests that caused major problems for rice intensification programs in the 1970s and 1980s have returned as major threats to production, primarily because of breakdowns in crop resistance and the excessive use of broad-spectrum, long-residual insecticides that disrupt natural pest control mechanisms. Even once the current situation settles, rice prices are not expected to fall to anywhere near their historic lows. The reasons for this include the expected long-term high price of oil (and therefore fertilizer), the time required to construct additional irrigation infrastructure, the possibility of more frequent extreme weather events, the rise of biofuels, and continued demand growth. Further, without the buffer of more stocks, there is an increased risk of continued instability in the international rice market.

What needs to be done?

Productivity growth through the development and dissemination of improved technologies is the only long-term viable solution for bringing prices down, preventing future increases in price, and ensuring that affordable rice is available to poor rice consumers. The best strategy for finding the right balance between the need to keep rice prices low for poor buyers of rice and to keep them high enough for farmers to improve their livelihoods is to ensure that production increases faster than demand, and that it is highly profitable, resource-efficient, and sustainable. Based on a thorough analysis of the principal development challenges of the future, IRRI defined five strategic goals in its Strategic Plan 2007-2015Bringing Hope, Improving Lives: . Reduce poverty through improved and diversified rice-based systems. 2. Ensure that rice production is sustainable 4

and stable, has minimal negative environmental impact, and can cope with climate change. 3. Improve the nutrition and health of poor rice consumers and rice farmers. 4. Provide equitable access to information and knowledge on rice and help develop the next generation of rice scientists. 5. Provide rice scientists and producers with the genetic information and material they need to develop improved technologies and enhance rice production. Each of these strategic goals contributes to the Millennium Development Goals, and they continue to provide the fundamental framework for IRRIs rice research strategyto act as a world-class provider of international public goods for impact. The immediate challenge for ensuring rice food security and slowly rebuilding buffer stocks is to stabilize global rice supply and demand balances by consistently producing about 8 to 0 million tons of rough rice more than in the previous year in each of the next 5 years. This would allow farmers to meet the rising demand for rice (at least 5 million tons annually) and slowly rebuild low buffer stocks to secure levels. After this period, the production increases required will likely be less, but they will remain around or above 5 million tons per year. Rice production can be increased by expanding the area planted to rice, by increasing the yield per unit area, or by a combination of the two. Reclaiming more land for rice, increasing the irrigated area, or increasing cropping intensity may occur in some areas as an immediate response to high prices. Over the longer term, however, net increases in rice harvest area will probably remain small because of continuing losses of rice land for other uses, including for the cultivation of other food crops. Expansion of rice into new areas would also be at the expense of natural resources and ecosystem services, and should proceed with great care. Additional rice supply has to primarily come from () increasing yields by reducing yield gaps, (2) increasing yields by increasing the yield potential of rice varieties or hybrids, and (3) reducing grain losses that occur during harvest, storage, or processing of rice. The gap in yield between the best agronomic and economical farm practices and the actual yield harvested on average by farmers is still large. We estimate that economically exploitable yield gaps of  to 2 t/ha exist in most rainfed and irrigated lowland environments. In some areas, they may be as

large as 3 t/ha. Grain losses occurring at harvest or subsequently are often 020%, or even more. Furthermore, poor seed storage also affects crop yields by causing poor seed health. Therefore, reducing exploitable yield gaps and reducing postharvest losses in Asia have the potential to produce, by 205, at least 50 million tons more rough rice than present amounts. Those must be targeted for shortto medium-term responses to the current rice crisis. Global average rice yields must continue to rise at an annual rate of more than 50 kg/ha to keep pace with the expected demand, or by at least 0.5 t/ha over the next 0 years (about 2%), and they must retain acceptable quality for each market. Actual yield growth in the past decade has, however, mostly been below this target due to a combination of () lack of progress made in raising the yield potential of rice and (2) yield losses caused by multiple crop damage resulting from abiotic and biotic stresses and natural disasters. A second Green Revolution is needed now as much as the first Green Revolution was needed 40 years ago to avoid famine. It must be sustainable and it will require both short- and long-term investments in R&D as the principal vehicle for technology improvement. Scientific and technical opportunities for this exist, but, because of the lack of resources, they have not been fully exploited. Improved, more stress-tolerant germplasm is at an advanced stage of development for several abiotic and biotic traits. Other new resistance or adaptation traits exist that have not been adequately examined yet in breeding programs. New germplasm could be made available faster and more widely with more resources for enhancing breeding, variety testing and approval, and seed delivery pipelines. Many new crop and resource management as well as postharvest technologies have been developed and widely tested by IRRI and NARES partners, but, inadequate resources, poor extension mechanisms, and socioeconomic constraints have limited more widespread adoption by farmers. Recent advances in science and technology offer unprecedented opportunities to not only solve current problems but also develop agricultural systems that can help millions of rural poor lift themselves out of poverty. In the near term, urgent ac1

tions from national governments and international agencies are needed on two fronts: rapidly exploiting existing technological opportunities for increasing rice yields and policy reforms to improve poor peoples food entitlements. Rice production can be revitalized, but there are no silver bullets. The world community must invest now and for a long time to come. Governments in the rice-producing countries of the world must lead this effort and make the resources as well as supporting policies available so that NARES, the private sector, NGOs, and other civil society organizations can carry out most of these activities. International institutions such as IRRI must play a leading role in accelerating the development of key innovations and new products, supporting new delivery mechanisms through public- and private-sector channels, and building capacity. IRRI is calling for implementation of the following nine-point program of short- and long-term interventions at different levels, seven of which fall squarely within IRRIs mandate: . Bring about an agronomic revolution in Asian rice production to reduce existing yield gaps. 2. Accelerate the delivery of new postharvest technologies to reduce losses. 3. Accelerate the introduction and adoption of higher-yielding rice varieties and hybrids with broader adaptation to biotic and abiotic stresses. 4. Strengthen and upgrade the rice breeding and research pipelines. 5. Accelerate research on the worlds thousands of rice varieties so scientists can use efficiently the vast reservoir of untapped genetic knowledge they harbor. 6. Develop a new generation of rice scientists and researchers for the public and private sectors. 7. Increase public investment in agricultural infrastructure. 8. Reform policy to improve the efficiency of marketing systems for both inputs and outputs. 9. Strengthen the food safety net for the poor.

We assume that producing 10 million tons more rice in each of the next 5 years could come from an initial increase in harvested area in response to high prices (about 0.40.5 million ha per yearwith 22.5 million tons more rice per year) and increased yield on existing rice land (67 million tons more rice per year). Beyond 5 years, production increases must primarily come from yield increases, requiring farmers to maintain a rate of 50 kg/ha per year to produce 67 million tons more rice each year.

Global efforts should also be made to explore additional areas that could potentially contribute to food security. For example, sub-Saharan Africa still remains largely unexploited in terms of land and water resources suitable for the production of cereal crops, but this requires enormous resources and efforts. With such concerted efforts, Africa could at least meet local demand and free the one-third of the world rice exports currently being imported into African countries. This document describes the seven research and development areas in which IRRI can best contribute to solving the current global rice crisis, as well as critical additional investments that are needed to prevent such crises in the future (Fig. 3). Components  (agronomic revolution)
Agronomic revolution Reducing postharvest losses Policy research Adoption of higheryielding rice varieties

Strengthening rice breeding Germplasm charac./ gene discovery Global Rice Science Scolarships

Short-term responses to global rice crisis Year 0 Year 5

Long-term prevention of future crises Year 10

Fig. 3. IRRI will work in seven areas to overcome and prevent rice crises.

and 2 (reducing postharvest losses) will provide impact in the short term, and focus on accelerating the large-scale transfer and adoption of new technologies that are available and have been widely tested. Component 3 (accelerated availability of new varieties) will have short- and medium-term impact. It consists of technology transfer, but also includes the last stages prior to transfer. Component 4 (strengthening breeding research) will have medium- to long-term impact. It also needs to be sustained on a long-term basis because it is and will be needed as production environments and their constraints evolve. Component 5 (using untapped genetic resources) represents a potential for longterm high impact, through new knowledge that breeders could mobilize, allowing them to release adapted new genotypes in a sustainable way. Com6

ponent 6 (new generation of rice scientists) will resolve short-term shortages of scientific capacity as well as secure a regular flow of trained scientists for sustained advancement of R&D. Through crosscutting policy and other socioeconomic research (Component 7), IRRI and its partners will contribute to making policy decisions and assessing their impact. IRRI will focus on providing generic technology solutions for further adaptation to local needs through existing and new partnerships. Examples of existing networks are the Irrigated Rice Research Consortium (IRRC), the International Network for Genetic Evaluation of Rice (INGER), the Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE), the Rice-Wheat Consortium (RWC), and the Hybrid Rice Research and Development Consortium (HRDC). In addition, large new regional projects in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the worlds poor live, will be used as efficient vehicles for reaching millions of rice farmers through public- and private-sector channels. In addition to strengthening existing research collaboration with NARES and other partners in key rice-producing regions, IRRI will seek opportunities for new bilateral projects. Emphasis will be given to countries that are at greatest risk, present underused opportunities, or have insufficient agricultural resources for R&D, including Revitalizing sustainable rice production growth in countries with high food security risk (importers with high per capita consumption, high population density, small crop-land area per capita, e.g., Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines). Revitalizing sustainable rice production in countries with potential to export more rice or become net exporters again (e.g., Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia). Increasing productivity in such countries would greatly relieve stress on world markets, to the benefit of net importers and the poor consumers in these countries, including in Africa. Developing rice production in countries that grow little rice and rely heavily on imports (e.g., eastern and southern Africa). Such country programs would focus on () supporting the delivery of new seeds and management technologies, (2) addressing specific local needs and opportunities, including hybrid rice technology, (3) building capacity, and (4) providing policy advice. Such missions must be timebound (50

years) with a clearly defined vision of success, milestones, and strategies that ensure upscaling and sustainability beyond the lifespan of the project.

1. Bring about an agronomic revolution to reduce existing yield gaps

Depending on production conditions, an unexploited yield gap of 12 t/ha currently exists in most farmers fields in the ricegrowing areas of Asia. This yield gap can be reduced through the integrated use of stressresistant varieties and better crop management practices. This requires funding support to programs aimed at improving farmers skills in practices such as land preparation, water and nutrient management, and control of various pests, diseases, and weeds. Many management deficiencies limit yields and bring about losses in the rice fields of Asia and elsewhere. Critical deficiencies include Poor leveling, levee construction, and water management Nonoptimal date of sowing or planting to capture the full yield potential Seedling pests and weeds caused by poor-quality and unhealthy seeds Too high seeding rates (direct seeding) that can cause disease epidemics Suboptimal plant densities under transplanting Lack of timely and effective weed control Unbalanced and untimely fertilizer application Insufficient control of rodents, diseases, insect pests; overuse/misuse of pesticides Existing yield gaps, typically 2 t/ha, can be reduced by using better crop management practices, particularly in irrigated environments. This requires funding support to programs aimed at promoting shifts in farmers' attitudes and practices, and making the right technologies available to them. During the past 5 years, IRRI and its partners have developed numerous new crop and resource management technologies that are designed to reduce existing yield gaps through either minimizing yield-limiting factors (water, nutrients) or reducing yield losses due to insects, diseases, weeds, and other factors. Many of these technologies also reduce production costs and risks. They

also favor yield stabilitythe key to sustainable agriculture in poorly endowed environments. Key technologies include Land leveling for direct seeding, including laser leveling Water-saving technologies (controlled irrigation, aerobic rice for temperate zones) Site-specific nutrient management Integrated pest management (of weeds, diseases, insects, rodents) Conservation agriculture (reduced tillage, direct seeding, residue management) Many of these technologies are also available for unfavorable rice environments. Much past R&D work has been conducted in close partnership with NARES, NGOs, and other civil society organizations, and the private sector. The technologies have been tested widely in Asia through networks such as the Irrigated Rice Research Consortium (IRRC), the Rice-Wheat Consortium for the Indo-Gangetic Plains (RWC), and the Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environments (CURE). Potential for increasing yields and resource efficiency has been demonstrated in case studies that range from hundreds to thousands of farmers. Rainfed rice ecosystems in both Asia and Africa suffer larger yield gaps than the irrigated system, and are far from being fully exploited. This is because farmers in these areas still adopt riskaversion strategies, with minimum investments in inputs or management practices, as their traditional low-yielding varieties are not responsive and the risk is enormous. With the advent of high-yielding stress-tolerant varieties that are management-responsive, these investments are now feasible and have already shown enormous potential. With proper water harvesting, cropping calendar and crop duration, and genetic tolerance, the productivity of rainfed areas can be increased substantially and stabilized. Resources for scaling these technologies up and out to millions of rice farmers have not been made available. Delivery mechanisms for achieving wider-scale adoption by farmers in different countries vary, but they generally require new publicpublic- and public-private-sector partnerships. IRRI can facilitate those at the regional or country level. Resources are required for the following: i. Biophysical and socioeconomic characterization and monitoring of key rice environments. This is key to () deploying technologies that are adapted to environments 7

and social needs, (2) anticipating needs for future research and development in a context of global change, and (3) setting priorities for research, development, and higher education. ii. Designing scalable delivery mechanisms for new seeds and crop management technologies, including linking up with input supply and advisory systems currently being developed by the private sector, and linking the agricultural sector with the irrigation management sector. iii. Using mass media for raising awareness and providing critical, timely, and readily usable information in nontechnical words, while it is actually based on strong fundamental research. iv. Establishing novel capacity-building programs for agronomists in the public and private sector, including professional certification programs. v. Providing improved content for use in modern information and communication technologies (ICTs), including the Cereals Knowledge Bank (CKB) and new electronic communication networks designed to reach millions of farm households. vi. Monitoring and analysis of effective pathways for delivery (cultural, social, economic, and political context). vii. Policy support to enable adaptation and adoption of new technologies. IRRI has expertise in all of these areas. It can provide generic technologies for local farmer-participatory tailoring to be led by NARES, NGOs, or the private sector, but it does not have enough human and supporting resources to move faster. IRRIs capacity for supporting outreach activities in key countries needs to be expanded for enabling an agronomic revolution, particularly in the lowland rice-growing areas of Asia. With the right resources, IRRI would also be able to build up research-tooutreach capacity at a level that reflects its comparative advantage within the research-to-impact pathway. Our role is not to work directly with millions of farmers, but to provide critical technical support and information for enhancing delivery through public- and private-sector channels, and also to policymakers who need to make critical decisions. For that, we need to build a strong outreach team that can integrate disciplinary R&D breakthroughs into practical solutions for local ad8

aptation, accelerate the information flow, facilitate research-extension-policy interactions, and allow other scientists to focus their efforts on new science needed for designing future rice systems. The following additional resources are needed: $3.5 million/year for  agronomist (research & outreach), support staff, and general operating costs (GOC) of US$400,000/year  water management specialist (research & outreach), support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year  nutrient management specialist (research & outreach), support staff, and GOC of $400,000/ year  IPM specialist (research & outreach), support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year  information management specialist (research & outreach), support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  social scientist, supporting consortia (IRRC and CURE), support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  rice systems analyst (geographic information systems & remote sensing), support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year 4 postdocs/visiting scientists (agronomy/weed science, pest management, water management, and nutrient management), $300,000/year Professional extension capacity building, $500,000/year Regional characterization and monitoring of rice systems, including forecasting and scenario analysis, $200,000/year

2. Accelerate the delivery of new postharvest technologies to reduce losses

Postharvest includes the storing, drying, and processing of rice. Considerable losses occur in terms of both quantity and quality of rice during postharvest operations because of the use of old and inefficient practices. Active promotion of exciting new technologies that are currently available for on-farm storage and drying will reduce losses considerably.

Physical grain losses that occur during harvest, transport, drying, storage, or processing of rice are often 020%. These can be minimized by changing postharvest practices, and they can also be minimized by ensuring that particular traits of the grain are in place, which are genetically controlled and are features of grain-filling. In addition, farmers are not receiving income because they lose additional quality in their traditional processing practices and therefore can sell their paddy only at discounted prices. Poor seed storage also affects crop yields by causing poor seed health. The causes for these losses from postharvest practices are well known. They include delays of operations in the value chain caused by labor shortage during the peak season, inappropriate postharvest equipment that is not suited to local conditions and needs, unavailability of improved postharvest equipment and limited information about best-practice postharvest management, and a lack of capital for investment in better technology. In addition, producers lack information about and access to markets that would help them meet market demand and use market opportunities. During the past 5 years, IRRI and its partners have developed and evaluated numerous new harvest and postharvest technologies that are designed to reduce yield losses or improve grain and seed quality. These key technologies include Mechanized harvest technologies (mini-combine harvesters, reaper) Hermetic grain storage (large and small, for example, the Super Bag) Grain moisture meter and quality assessment toolkit Grain-drying systems that reduce spoilage Technologies and knowledge for optimizing rice mill performance Market intelligence Much of this work has been conducted in close partnership with farmers, NGOs, and the private sector, particularly in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Cambodia. Clear potential for recovering more rice grain by reducing losses as well as for improving seed health and through that yield has been demonstrated. Dissemination of postharvest technologies is also a potential avenue for reaching farmers with other technologies. During the past 4 years, IRRI has also embarked on research to reveal the value, and improve some of the processes, of grain-filling in

maximizing the yield of edible graina measure of yield that is arguably more relevant than the traditional measure of weight of paddy. For grainfilling, a key issue is to better understand the development of dense grains (well filled) that contain structures of starch granules that resist rough treatment, resist breakage in the mill, and that can exchange water without causing internal pressure and fissuring, leading to breakage. The successful introduction of drying and harvesting systems in southern Vietnam and more recently in South Sumatra and also the axial-flow thresher throughout Southeast Asia has shown that most postharvest equipment will be locally produced by small businesses with little access to information and technology, and limited R&D capacity. The delivery of postharvest technologies therefore requires, in addition to working with NARES, close collaboration with and support to local manufacturers in adapting those technologies to local conditions, materials available, and location-specific users needs. Other support needs, for example, for financing postharvest equipment and marketing higher-quality products, require new partnership models, which IRRI has successfully piloted, such as by working closely with rice millers associations in extending new technologies to farmers. IRRI has recently developed preliminary business plans for small enterprises to implement new postharvest technologies. Resources for scaling these technologies up and out to millions of rice farmers have not been made available. Delivery mechanisms for achieving wider-scale adoption by farmers in different countries vary, but they generally require new publicprivate-sector partnerships that IRRI can facilitate at the regional or country level. This also requires substantial investments in capacity building for both the public and private sector, but also investments in producing key materials for farmer intermediaries, end users, and manufacturers of locally produced equipment or products such as the Super Bag, drying systems, or grain moisture meters. Our goal is to make improved postharvest technologies and management options available to a large number of farmers and processors in key countries. Dissemination of postharvest technologies will focus on countries that are in a major food supply or food security crisis (Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh), that have major export potential to help alleviate the world crisis (Vietnam, 9

Myanmar, Cambodia), and one (Lao PDR) that has high potential to increase farmers livelihoods by focusing on value adding and specialty rice. Although generic postharvest technologies have been developed, the approaches for outscaling will need to be developed for each country depending on the specific development status, support structure, and socioeconomic conditions of the farming communities. To speed up getting the first results in farmers fields, the dissemination of straightforward technologies such as the Super Bag for hermetic storage of grain and seeds will already begin during the inception phase. We will draw on IRRIs extended partnerships from previous postharvest research and include national institutions, NGOs, and the private sector for technology adaptation and crosscountry technology transfer of proven technologies. The following additional resources are needed: $2.9 million/year for  industrial extension/production specialist, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  market/agribusiness development specialist, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  edible-yield specialist (postdoc), support staff, and GOC of $200,000/year  scientist/impact specialist (postdoc), support staff, and GOC of $00,000/year In-country teams (staff and GOC), $400,000 per country and year

3. Accelerate the introduction and adoption of higher-yielding rice varieties

New rice varieties are available today that can increase production, but farmers are not using them because the systems that introduce new varieties are under-resourced. Enhancing germplasm exchange, variety testing, and release pipelines can make current highyielding stress-resistant varieties and hybrids more widely available to farmers in irrigated and rainfed lowland areas of Asia. Many farmers grow modern varieties that were released many years agooften 0 to 20 years ago. One reason for this is the high quality of those varieties. But older varieties are often not fully adapted to current, variable, and changing biotic 0

and abiotic conditions and thus may not reach their original yield potential anymore. Under farm conditions, varieties that are 20 years old may have lost as much as  t/ha of their original potential yield because they are not fully adapted anymore to the changing environments and pathogens or insects that have evolved over time. Likewise, reuse and sharing of own seeds among farmers can lead to poor seed health (diseases) and contamination with weed seeds, both causing substantial yield losses. Moreover, many new rice varieties have not been adopted widely yet, and one of the reasons is that they do not meet the requirements for quality. Many new lines could be enhanced for faster release and delivery. Modern molecular breeding methods will be increasingly used in the next few years to upgrade mega-varieties grown widely by millions of rice farmers with new traits conferring increased tolerance of key abiotic stresses (e.g., submergence, salinity) or resistance to biotic stresses (e.g., bacterial blight, blast, planthoppers, tungro virus). Making such improved varieties available requires an accelerated mechanism for variety testing, approval, seed production, and seed delivery. More investments in germplasm exchange, maintenance breeding, and efficient seed delivery through public- and private-sector partnerships are urgently needed to make current high-yielding stress-resistant varieties and hybrids more widely available to farmers in irrigated and rainfed lowland areas of Asia. IRRI can help in five ways: Enhance international (e.g., the International Network for Genetic Evaluation of RiceINGER) and national germplasm exchange, breeding and variety testing networks, and information systems for new rice varieties: Enhanced access of IRRI-developed advanced breeding lines by NARES for testing in key rice-growing areas Speedy exchange of elite breeding lines developed by NARES in Asia and Africa Better characterization of testing locations through modern tools such as GIS to allow targeted deployment of new varieties and more detailed assessment of varietal performance More test locations, more and better-characterized entries, and efficient exploitation of genotype by environment interactions DNA barcoding of INGER test entries developed by NARES for intellectual property protection and association genetics purposes

More efficient data collection, analysis, and use Accelerated access and spread of information on new varieties Expand information on new varieties in the Cereals Knowledge Bank (CKB). Establish wider networks for participatory variety selection in collaboration with the public and private sector. Streamline varietal release processes. Facilitate faster flow of new varieties into seed multiplication and delivery systems. The following additional resources are needed: $.3 million/year for  variety testing specialist (yield and quality), support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  seed specialist, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year Capacity building for NARES and the private sector, $00,000/year Collaboration support for INGER test sites (00 key sites at $3,000/year), $300,000/year DNA barcoding of exchanged breeding materials, $300,000/year

4. Strengthen and upgrade breeding pipelines for developing new varieties and hybrids
Funding for the development of new rice varieties has declined steadily over the past decade or more. This must be reversed in order to develop the next generations of new rice varieties that will be required for productivity growth in sustainable agriculture. Several opportunities are available to accelerate the development of new rice varieties and hybrids with higher yield, better grain quality, and increased tolerance of abiotic stresses, and with multiple resistance to insects and diseases through new molecular breeding approaches. To realize yield gains from technologies that alleviate abiotic and biotic constraints (and thereby close yield gaps), breeding for routine development and deployment of elite varieties and elite parental lines for hybrids must be accelerated in order to prevent

erosion of yield potential (and the exploitable yield gap) at the farm level and to revitalize efforts to develop new rice varieties with increased yield potential. This requires investments in upgrading breeding programs at IRRI, as well as in NARES worldwide, that deliver high-yielding, high-quality stress-resistant lines for irrigated and rainfed lowland environments into public- and private-sector channels for further refinement and release. Rice production worldwide is faced with recurrent constraints to productivity, as well as emerging ones. Recurrent constraints include soil salinity, drought, weeds, and a number of diseases and pests (e.g., blast, bacterial blight, sheath blight, virus diseases, and rats). Emerging constraints are related to global change and the necessary adaptation of agriculture to new contexts, in which water, land, labor, and energy are scarce, and intermittent drought and flooding spells, brown spot, weeds, and soil-borne diseases can occur. Breeding has to meet both immediate needs to adapt germplasm to current constraints and future needs associated with agricultural change. Breeding programs are long-term investmentsin biological knowledge, in characterized germplasm, in numerous successive field experiments and on-farm trials, and in trained breeders, plant pathologists, and plant physiologistsand they have suffered much from underinvestment. At IRRI, for example, the decline in unrestricted funding has been a major cause of reduced support staff and operational resources for maintenance breeding during the past 5 years. This trend must be reversed. Key requirements for accelerating breeding pipelines include More staff (trained breeders, pathologists, entomologists, physiologists) and other support resources for major breeding programs. Improved screening methods and facilities for key biotic and abiotic stresses, whether recurrent or emerging ones. Sharing with NARES of specialized genetic stocks such as products of marker-assisted selection, isogenic lines, pyramided lines, and dihaploid and other mapping populations for the incorporation of useful genes into welladapted cultivars in rice-growing countries and for integrating conventional breeding with new tools of genomics, including capacity building. Making high-throughput marker-assisted selection a standard approach in mainstream 

breeding programs, particularly with regard to key biotic stresses (e.g., blast, bacterial blight, brown planthopper, tungro), abiotic stresses (drought, low/high temperature, submergence, salinity, adverse soils), and grain quality Specialized training for NARES breeders The following additional resources are needed: $6 million/year for  irrigated rice breeder, support staff, and GOC of $500,000/year  molecular breeder, support staff, and GOC of $500,000/year  breeder for water-short environments, support staff, and GOC of $500,000/year  breeder for abiotic stresses (high temperature, adverse soils), support staff, and GOC of $500,000/year  entomologist for breeding support, support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year  plant pathologist for breeding support, support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year  crop physiologist for breeding support, support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year 3 postdocs to support breeding and grain quality research, $200,000/year 0 additional support staff to strengthen existing breeding programs, $00,000/year Shuttle breeding collaboration with NARES, $400,000/year Rice breeding and marker-aided selection training courses, $00,000/year Capital investments in fields, greenhouses, and lab facilities at IRRI, $2 million/year

use of this tremendous resource is to improve our ability to predict which accessions are most likely to contain the alleles needed to meet a given research or development objective, and then to study those accessions with technologies that enable efficient discovery of their alleles and evaluation of their potential contribution to variety improvement. This will require overcoming key bottlenecks, including Working with IRRI, the worlds nations have spent decades carefully collecting thousands of rice types. More than 100,000 rice types are now being carefully managed and used at IRRI and in Asian nations. However, only a small fraction of the genetic resources has been characterized in detail or used widely. New molecular methods have now opened the door for revealing the valuable alleles in each accession. Accurate data on the origins and pedigrees of germplasm Data management, analysis, and software development for the joint analysis of molecular, phenotypic, and geographic data Molecular characterization and phenotyping to maximize gene discovery (i.e., identification of agronomically significant gene loci, discovery of the full range of available alleles at each locus, and determining their phenotypic correlates) Collection of new germplasm from hot spots of diversity and tolerance of biotic and abiotic stresses A prerequisite for routine exploitation of germplasm is to have a significant portion of the genetic diversity documented at a genome-wide scale. IRRI has led a consortium effort to generate data of genome-wide variation in 20 diverse rice lines. Even with this limited representation of genetic diversity, we have begun to see the power of associating fine-scale genetic variation (in the form of strings of SNP) with agronomic traits. DNA barcoding (at SNP resolution) of genebank collections, breeding materials, and specialized genetic stocks, such as near-isogenic lines and wide-cross introgression lines, coupled with phenotype and performance data collected over time and geographic locations, can provide a roadmap to track genes and genetic regions impor-

5. Accelerate research on the worlds thousands of rice varieties so scientists can use the vast reservoir of untapped genetic resources they contain
The genebank collections and breeding materials accumulated over time represent the foundation for all genetic improvement and breeding activities. About 25% of the accessions in IRRIs genebank are in the pedigrees of commercially released varieties, but only about 2% have been screened for microsatellites and only 0.02% have been studied with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) detection. The key to making more effective 2

tant for specific traits. Both theory and technology are in place in rice to allow us to establish such a genetic diversity research platform for near-term (23 years) and long-term applications in all aspects of genetic improvement and breeding activities. On a small scale, this approach is already being used in the search for additional loci and useful alleles for grain-quality traits, and for tolerance of submergence and phosphorus deficiency. Given the continuous need for finding genetic variation to enhance the yield and resilience of the rice crop, there is no better time than now to invest in the establishment of a rice genetic diversity platform. The following additional resources are required: $ .7 million/year for  genetic diversity specialist, support staff, and GOC of $400,000/year  bioinformatics specialist, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  data management and GIS specialist, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year High-resolution genotyping (SNP) of rice genotypes, $300,000/year Network for high-quality phenotyping (integrated with INGER), $400,000/year

6. Develop a new generation of rice scientists and researchers for the public and private sectors
Part of the current rice crisis reflects the lack of investment in science, including human capital investment. The education and training of young scientists and researchers are also a vital concern for the rice industry. Asia and Africa urgently need to train a new generation of rice scientists and researchers to enable them to exploit the developments in modern science more effectively. To build a successful rice improvement program, a cadre of scientists must be able to design and conduct research that examines current and projected needs. During the Green Revolution, many young researchers from developing countries obtained Ph.D. degrees through scholarships provided by IRRI or other public-sector organizations. IRRIs resources for providing financial and research sup-

port for educating highly-qualified, well-rounded rice scientists for the public and private sector in Asia have declined steadily in the past 0 years. IRRI is now unable to provide any scholarships from its shrinking unrestricted funding. Likewise, many students from developing countries who have obtained degrees from universities in developed countries are not returning home. This has led to a serious shortage of qualified rice scientists. The situation will soon become worse because many breeders and other alumni who have graduated in the 970 to 990s (funded mostly by IRRI and other public-sector entities) will retire. A generation gap is already emerging in many NARES institutions. Private companies have difficulties finding suitable research staff. Major shortages of scientists exist in traditional disciplines such as rice breeding, plant pathology, entomology, crop physiology, and agronomy. This program aims at producing a new generation of rice scientists who are experts in a specific scientific discipline, but also well rounded in their understanding of the broader issues of rice science for development. Special attention will be given to supporting Ph.D. students in rice breeding, agronomy, and related disciplines. To complement other forms of capacity building (e.g., short-term training, group training, distance education, scientist exchange, sandwich scholarships with advanced research institutes), IRRI proposes to establish a Global Rice Science Scholarship Program for Ph.D. scholars that will provide the resources for attracting the brightest young people and molding them into future leaders at all levels of rice research and development. Students enrolled in this program will conduct thesis research at IRRI (or in collaboration with our partners) and participate in a new rice science leadership training program. The following additional resources are required: $ million/year for  training and leadership specialist, support staff positions, and GOC of $200,000/year 30 Global Rice Science Scholarships (Ph.D.) for thesis research and leadership training at IRRI ($800,000/year). Each scholarship will cost about $26,000 per year, including stipend, supervision and research support, travel, housing, insurance, books, and leadership training.

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7. Provide rice policy support

Conducive policy environments are needed to achieve fuller use of technology for rapid production growth in an efficient, equitable, and sustainable manner. Rice production is being affected by several dynamic economic factors and their potential impact can be manipulated through suitable policy reforms. The identification of policy constraints, the generation of alternative policy options, and policy advocacy are therefore essential.

The technology development/dissemination program outlined above must be complemented by suitable policy support for generating the desired impact on poverty reduction rapidly. The policy environment under which rice production takes place determines how rapidly farmers will accept new technologies, how trade and marketing institutions affect household food security, and how the benefits of technologies are distributed among different segments of society. The current crisis situation provides an opportunity for developing, based on credible scientific analysis, short- and long-term policy options for national governments. Rice is a staple crop of Asia. It is not just an economic good but it is also a political commodity. Unlike other food crops such as maize and wheat, its unique features include a dominant mode of production on small farms by hundreds of millions of poor farmers, diverse production conditions, and a very small amount traded internationally relative to production. Broader policy recommendations made for the food sector as a whole are therefore inadequate to factor in these unique features of rice. Given the strategic importance of rice and its uniqueness in global food trade, policy recommendations need to be specifically tailored, and they need to take into account the different growth opportunities in different rice environments. Understanding those, doing rice-specific policy research, and bringing researchers and policymakers together is a key role that IRRI must play in the overall scheme of food policy research. We will focus on priorities for R&D, investment policy for agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation and rural roads, marketing policies for both inputs and outputs, and the suitable design of 4

safety nets for vulnerable groups of the population. It will be necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of trends and determinants of rice demand and supply, the comparative advantages of rice production across rice ecosystems and regions, market intelligence, price stabilization policies, and the ability of marketing systems to efficiently transmit price signals to consumers and producers. Analyses of farm-household livelihood strategies and dynamics of rural income changes are needed for technology targeting and for identifying households that require suitable safety nets because of their higher vulnerability to food shortages. Innovative approaches are similarly needed for promoting the rapid diffusion of improved technologies and information to farmers and to various players along the value chain. Finally, it is important that critical assessments of the impact of various interventions promoted be conducted to inform national governments and donors alike for achieving accountability and future impact. IRRI has been conducting socioeconomic and policy research related to the rice economy, at both the sector and household levels, and providing credible information from this research to various stakeholders. With the additional support requested here, the existing scientific knowledge base will be augmented to develop high-impact policy reform options to provide solutions to the current crisis and to avoid future crises. IRRI will use and strengthen its existing network of policy researchers consisting of national partners, other CGIAR centers, and advanced research institutes. The main outputs of this component will be high-impact policy briefs and policy dialogues in addition to the usual scientific publications. In addition, this work will contribute to capacity building of national partners for policy analysis. The following additional resources are needed: $600,000/year for  rice policy analyst, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year  market intelligence analyst, support staff, and GOC of $300,000/year

8. Resources required
The activities described in this document represent opportunities for achieving faster and long-lasting impact by which IRRI will support its partners in responding to the rice crisis. The five strategic goals

described in IRRIs Strategic Plan 2007-2015: Bringing Hope, Improving Lives fully encompass these activities. In order to accelerate product-oriented research and contribute scientifically and technically to more collaborative efforts in key countries, IRRI cannot rely on its current budget of approximately $43 million per annum. We estimate that IRRI will need an additional investment of $7 million per year for a minimum of 5 years. A significant number of the additional staff listed will be placed in South Asia and other key target regions. Moreover, our estimates assume that baseline funding from unrestricted and restricted sources can be secured to also achieve the projected outputs stated in IRRIs Strategic Plan and its MTP. In addition to this, resources need to be raised for infrastructure upgrading and expansion of critical research facilities at IRRI. Large country or regional projects will need to raise additional resources for developing strong outreach programs in critical areas. Hosting countries are expected to contribute additional staff resources and matching operational funds to such programs. Likewise, large-scale research and extension programs at the country level will require substantially higher investments by governments and international donors.

Clearly the current rice crisis requires a major response and concerted action. Our best assessment of the additional resource needs of $7 million (or 40% over current budget) is based on a careful analysis of the impact that such an investment can achieve in the short to medium term. During the Institutes strategic planning in 2005-06, we undertook to estimate the cost of fully implementing the plan. After iterative consultations with staff and stakeholders, we arrived at a figure of about $60 million. Another way to address this is to look at IRRIs annual budgets over its history, adjusted for inflation (Fig. 4), a budget level that helped the Institute deliver considerable impact in the face of major challenges. Once again, the challenges are mounting. But, with the appropriate investment in IRRIs research for development agenda, we can contribute effectively to overcoming not only the current crisis, but also establish a solid foundation for sustained growth. We are confident that what we are requesting is reasonable and realistic and that we have the institutional capacity to absorb the activities.

Fig. 4. IRRIs budget, 1960 to 2007 (inflation adjusted, 2007 US$ value).

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Contact: Dr. Achim Dobermann Deputy Director General for Research Telephone: +63 (2) 580-5600 ext. 2773 or 2212 Email: a.dobermann@cgiar.org Mailing address: IRRI, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines Courier: 6776 Ayala Avenue, Security Bank Center, Suite 1009, Makati City, Philippines; Telephone +63 (2) 891-1236, Fax: (2) 891-1174