Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Thursday30June2011
Istheendoftheworldreallynigh?
DuststormasIdroveacrossSydneyHarbourBridgeat6:30amon Wednesday23September2009
There is no opinion, however absurd, which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted.
(Schopenhauer, Die Kunst Recht zu Behalten)
TheAustralianpublicfail theknowledgetestoncarbon.
53% 40% 37% 93% 47% 37% 44% believeclimatechangecausestsunamis believeclimatechangecausesearthquakes believeclimatechangecausesvolcaniceruptions thinkCO2 constitutesmorethan1%oftheatmosphere thinkCO2 ispollution thinkweshouldtrytoreducecarboninthebody thinkfoodanddrinkwouldbesaferifithadnocarbonorCO2 init
ButIwanttostartwithfactsthat wecanallagreeupon:
(globalwarmingalarmistsandrealistsalike)
CarbonDioxide(CO2)is:
1. Atinytracegas(385partspermillion:lessthan atwentyfifthof1%oftheatmosphere) 2. Naturallyoccurring 3. Invisible 4. Odourless 5. Nontoxic 6. Necessaryforallplantlife(photosynthesis) 7. Emittedbyallanimallife(breathingetc.)
SowhyisCO2 calledapollutant?
Remarkableanswer: Becauseitisagreenhousegas even thoughgreenhousegasesmakePlanet Earthliveable(+14oCcurrentaverage globaltemperature,ratherthan19oC otherwise)
OneoftheBigPolluterskeepingourlightson!
Bayswater Power Station (Hunter Valley, NSW) operating at maximum capacity The visible white gas is steam from the cooling towers, with the tall chimneys emitting invisible CO2
Greenhousegases,inorderofimportance,comprise:
Watervapour(H2O) CarbonDioxide(CO2) Methane(CH4),NitrousOxide (N2O),etc. 97% 2% 1%
Humankindcurrentlycontributes3% of theEarthsproductionofatmosphericCO2. The97% balanceofnaturallyoccurring CO2 productionissplitbetweenanimals, vegetationandsoils(53%)andtheoceans (44%).Boththelandbasedbiosphereand theoceanbasedaquaspherealsoabsorb hugeamountsofCO2.
CarbonDioxideCycle
EyjafjallajokulVolcanoEruptsinIcelandin2010
Mt.PuyehueEruptsinChilein2011
CO2 isatinytracegasintheEarthsatmosphere
Ifonlyhumankindcouldemit moreCO2!
BenefitsofCarbonDioxide
Doublingcurrent CO2 levelswould improvefoodcropyieldsaslistedbelow:
Between1950andtheearly1990s,worldpopulationX2.2,foodproductionX2.7 19702000sawa15%percapitaincreaseinfoodconsumption
CO2 isPlantFood
HereiswhathappensoveroneyearwithmoreCO2
535ppm
685ppm
835ppm
Cruelia starvesthetrees!
ThewarmingeffectofCO2 declineslogarithmically
Australiacontributes1.4%ofglobal anthropogenicgreenhouseemissions.
HistoricandProjectedAtmosphericCarbonContributionsbytheUnitedStates, ChinaandAustralia
Australiascommitment
Thebasecasebipartisanplanisto reduceAustraliasemissionsby5%by 2020.
ETScasualty
Nextcasualty?
ETScasualty
Finalvictor?
orabouta22millionth!
(EqualtoonehumanstepinatrekaroundtheEarthsequator!)
Brisbane1893~118yearsago!
Right?
Wrong!
Temperature,CO2 andsealevelsforthelast20,000years
Relativestabilityduringthemostrecent7,000yearswhenhumancivilizationhas advancedmostrapidly.
Stabletemperaturerangesince endoflasticeage
IndustrialAge:1850 present
Globallyaveragedtemperaturevariationsbetween1850and 2000showtheemergencefromtheLittleIceAgeintheearly 1900s,slightcoolinginthe1940stothe1970s,andthen warmingagainsincethe1970s,followedbycoolingsince1998.
Exactlywhatclimatechange?
Globaltemperaturehasgentlydeclinedoverthepastdecade. Bothpolaricecapsarecurrentlyincreasing. Sealevelscontinuethesamegentleminusculerise. Cyclones/hurricanesarethesameasever. TheMurrayDarlingbasinisawash. TheGreatBarrierReefisthriving. BountifulSnowyMountainsskiseason,etc.,etc
DidntAlGoresaytheArcticIcewill begoneby2012?
ThegraphofArcticIcecoverof thelastsevenyears,shows2007 astheyearwiththeleasticecover sincesatelliteshavebeenused(in 1979theystarted) In2007somepeoplemadea guessthatthewarmingtrend wouldcontinue.AlGoreand othershaverepeatedthatguess. Sincethenthearcticicecoverhas increased. Anecdotalevidenceshowstherewereperiodswhenicecoverwaslessthanin2007, (e.g.shipsinthe1930snavigatedthenorthwestpassagewithouttheassistanceofice breakersorGPStrackingoficefloes),sothereisnothingunusualaboutthelevelsof ArcticIcewehavetoday Arcticpolarbearpopulationhasincreasedfrom5,00050yearsagoto25,000today.
SealevelmeasurementsatFortDenison
MurrayDarlingBasinYearlyRainfall 1900TO2010
Arecyclonesincreasing?No!
Everythingpresentedsofarhasbeenindisputable empiricallyobserveddata. Globalwarmingadvocateshavenochoicebuttoagree, eveniftheyarereluctanttobeopenwithusallonthese matters. Thedifferencecomeswhencomputermodellingthefuture: rubbishin,rubbishout! "Peopleunderestimatethepowerofmodels.Observational evidenceisnotveryuseful.Ourapproachisnotentirely empirical."
JohnMitchell,principalresearchscientistattheUKMetOffice
TheIPCCsboguscomputermodels
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesetupin1988 underUNauspices Doesnotcarryoutresearchormonitorclimate Assimilatesavailableinformationtoinformgovernmentsof theworldviacomputerizedprojections Globalquasimonopolyofofficialscientificadvice Hasmutatedintoapoliticallycorrectalarmistpressure group Notorioushockeystickquietlydroppedfromlatest2007 Report JointwinnerwithAlGoreoftheNobelPeace Prize!
IftheIPCCwasntthere,whywouldanyonebeworriedabout climatechange? RajendraPachauri,ChairmanoftheUNIntergovernmentalPanel onClimateChange,Science,February5,2010
TheIPCCsHockeyStick
AnexposedscientificfraudknowinglymisusedbyAlGoreinhismovie AnInconvenientTruth.Whatanironicname!
Whydidsomanyscientistsgetitwrong?
Recommendedreading:ClimategateAnalysisbyJohnCostella
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/climategate_analysis.pdf
TheIPCCmodelspredictmonotonic warming,buttheyarealreadywrong!
LeadingGlobalWarmingAlarmists
International AlGore/IPCC(JointNobelPeacePrizewinners).SirNicholas Stern(AuthoroftheU.K.GovernmentsSternReview). AustralianPoliticians AlloftheALP(JuliaGillard,KevinRudd,Penny Wong,PeterGarrett,GregCombet,etc.butMartinFerguson?),some Liberals(MalcolmTurnbull,etc.),alloftheGreens(BobBrown,Christine Milne,etc.).Independents?(TonyWindsor,RobOakeshott) AustralianProfessionals(generally) Governmentdepartments, academics,CSIRO,media(includingABCandFairfax),greenindustry corporates,financiers,lawyersandaccountants,NGOs,etc. AustralianGovernmentAppointees TimFlannery(2007Australianofthe Year.AuthorofTheWeatherMakers.AustraliasClimateChange Commissioner).RossGarnaut(AuthoroftheAustralianGovernments ClimateChangeReport).
LeadingGlobalWarmingSceptics
Politicians FormerALPministers(PeterWalsh,MichaelCosta,etc.), mostLiberals(TonyAbbott,NickMinchin,CoryBernardi, DennisJensen,AndrewRobb,etc.),allNationals (includingBarnabyJoyce,RonBoswell,JohnWilliams, etc.),Independents?(BobKatter) BobCarter,IanPlimer,BillKininmoth,DavidEvans,Garth Paltridge,JenniferMarohasy,JoanneNova,David Archibald RayEvans(LavoisierGroup) VivForbes(CarbonSenseCoalition) MaxRheese(AustralianClimateScienceCoalition) LeonAshby(ClimateScepticsParty) AndrewBolt,MirandaDevine,TerryMcCrann,Christopher Pearson,PiersAkerman,AlanJones,TheAustralian newspaper,talkbackradio
Scientists
Lobbyists
Journalists
TheLabor/Green/IndependentGovernmentsProposed CarbonTax
Multibilliondollarperannumcarbontax:i.e.greatbignew taxoneverything!Whoarethe1000bigpolluters? Createsmassivedistortionsinoureconomy Directlyreducesinternationalcompetitiveness Producesgrindingcompliancecostsandbureaucratic interventiontocushionadverseindustryandhousehold impactsforpoliticalexpediency Providesabonanzaforthefinancialandprofessionalservices, greenindustriesandgovernmentdepartmentswhichwilltake commissions,fees,subsidiesandtaxesfromthecashflow badluckfortheproductivesector,thetaxpayerandthe consumer!
TheGillard/BrownGovernments ClimateChangeCommission
TheCommissionisanindependentbodysetupbythe federalgovernmenttoprovideinformationonclimate changeandhelpinformthedebate ABCSpokeswoman30April,2011 Infact,thetaxpayerfundedCommissionisabiased propagandamachinecomprisedentirelyofclimate changealarmiststryingtostifleonesideofthedebate. NowtheGovernmentapparentlyneedstaxpayerstofund a$12millionadvertisingcampaigntoconvincean increasinglydubiouspublic.
BusinessCertainty? If the policy doesnt reduce carbon then it is purely a tax. The other problem is that under this policy, at any time in the future the government of the day can change the cost of carbon so there is no certainty for us to make investment decisions. PaulOMalley ChiefExecutiveOfficer BluescopeSteel
Politicalplainspeakonthecarbontax The document obviously contemplates broad coverage of the economy but it also leaves open the discussion that we need to have about how that might be dealt with, whether or not we phase the scheme into different sectors of the economy but the important thing again is the PM acknowledged there are price impacts in the economy from a carbon price and also indicated, as you would expect from a Labor government, that we will assist those people who need the assistance the most, in particular obviously pensioners and low income households will be firmly in our mind and we will ensure that every dollar raised from the carbon price mechanism is committed to help households and to help industry make the transition to lower emissions in the future. GregCombet MinisterforClimateChange There.Hopefullythatsclearedthingsup!
20%RenewableEnergyTargetby2020
Currently7% Mostrenewableenergyispresentlyhydro(5%withlittlescope forincrease)andbagassefromsugarcane(1%) Windandsolar(1%)donotproducebaseloadpower (thereforerequire~85%baseloadbackup) Baseloadfromgeothermalhotrocksdifficultandisolated Uranium(stillruledoutpoliticallyinAustralia) CarbonGeoSequestration(expensive,nonuniformand unproven)
N.B.Alloftheabovenewtechnologiesaremuchmoreexpensivethan coalfiredpower.ThereforeAustralianelectricitypriceswillcontinue torocketupwards.
TheAustralianNewspaper 30August2010
NSWGovtsDesalinationPlant&WindFarm: CombinationoftwoWhiteElephants!
Aerialviewofthe$2bnKurnellDesalinationPlantunder constructionwhileSydneysdamsfillup
Sitevisitto$100mCapitalWindFarmnearLake GeorgebyPhilipWoodonSunday11April2010
Copenhagen,December2009
ThehubrisofaGreektragedy
"Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket. -Eric Hoffer
(The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements)
"It is error alone which needs the support of government. Truth can stand by itself." -Thomas Jefferson
TheSpanishExperienceinpast5years
(similarclimateandGDPtoAustralia) Householdelectricitycostsup30%,despitegovernmentsubsidy Industryelectricitycostsup100% BusinessesandjobsthereforeleavingSpain Unemployment20%andrising EverygreenjobcoststhetaxpayerUS$770,000 2.2realjobslostforeverygreenjobcreated Lackofbaseloadpowermeanselectricitysupplyhasbecome unreliable ThisistheSpanishexampleadvocatedbytheObama Administration! SpanishGovernmentisnowwithholdingsubsidiesbecauseit cantaffordthem. Clickon:http://www.juandemariana.org/pdf/090327employmentpublicaidrenewable.pdf
Will2020be. liketheLittleIceAge?
Letus
appreciateandtrustNatureswondrous dynamicenvironmentandceaseourclimatefear. Instead,wewillfocusourcreativity,energyand resourcesonthetimelesschallengeofadaptingto naturalchangesinourclimateandoneliminating real manmadepollutiontoexpressourinherent carefortheEarth.