Offshore Wind Accelerator

RenewableUK, Offshore Wind 2010 Liverpool, Wednesday 30 June 2010 Phil de Villiers

Mass deployment of offshore wind required to meet targets

Forecast UK 2020 electricity supply in 40% scenario

TWh
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

6 26

20

151 91

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Wave and tidal

Hydro

Solar

Other1

Total

1. Landfill, co-firing, biomass Source: Carbon Trust Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity, 2008; BCG analysis 2008

6,000 turbines required, 65km from shore in 60m depths

180m
Moray Firth 1.3GW EDP, SeaEnergy Firth of Forth 3.5GW SSE, Fluor Dogger Bank 9GW SSE, Statoil, RWE, Statkraft Hornsea 4GW Mainstream, Siemens 30 St Mary Axe (the Gherkin)

65m 220 m

100 m

Irish Sea 4.2GW Centrica

Norfolk 7.2GW SPR, Vattenfall Bristol Channel 1.5GW RWE West Isle of Wight 0.9GW Eneco Hastings 0.7GW E.ON

-60m
Average distance to shore (km) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
8 25 65

Source: UK Ports for the Offshore Wind Industry: Time to Act, DECC / BVG Associates, 5 February 2009, p.17; Financial Times, January 2010; Carbon Trust analysis

Turbine installation rates will need to increase dramatically

Number of turbines installed per year 2003 - 20201
One new turbine installed every 11 days One new turbine installed per day 2.5 new turbines installed per day
1,000 1,000 900

Actuals Modelled
500 300 150 21 20 30 30 33 67 221 333 400 400 500

700

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Over 6,000 turbines to be installed over 10 years

1. Number of turbines calculated from actual and forecast installed capacity figures, assuming 3MW turbines 2003 2013, and 5MW turbines from 2014 Source: Carbon Trust Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity, 2008; Carbon Trust analysis 2010 4

Build rate similar to coal in the 1970s and gas in the 1990s
Power generation capacity additions 1966 - 2020

Coal: 28GW
GW pa
6

Gas: 26GW

Offshore Wind: Up to 29GW

Source: Carbon Trust Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity, 2008; LEK Consulting, Renewable Energy Framework March 2006, BCG Analysis 2008

19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20

RD&D critical for reducing cost

Weak commercial returns high levels of public subsidy Stronger commercial returns lower levels of public subsidy 14bn 75bn

16bn

Requires major RD&D programme, of which OWA is one component

te si y al ilit im b pt aila O v a

45bn

t en tion r ur cta C e p ex

st ons Co cti du e

le ab ev l hi oa Ac g

Source: Carbon Trust Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity, 2008

Offshore Wind Accelerator is a consortium to reduce costs

Objective: Reduce cost of energy by 10% through RD&D Original partnership 7 developers + Carbon Trust 56% of UK licensed capacity (~27GW) 4-year commitment Focusing on technologies for Round 2 extensions Round 3 Scottish Territorial Waters New partners Total budget 10m for collaborative R&D Up to 30m for demonstrations
7

OWA focuses on strengthening economics of offshore wind

Stage I (Oct 08 to Apr 10) examined four technical areas
Offshore wind returns

CAPEX

OPEX

Yield Financing costs

Foundations

Access Electrical systems Wake effects Four technology areas, selected on basis of detailed analysis of over 70 technical barriers

Agenda
Findings from first stage of OWA Foundations Access, transportation and logistics Wake effects Electrical systems

Foundations vision: Reduce cost of deeper water foundations

To demonstrate new, lower-cost foundation designs For 30-60m depths expected in late Round 2 & Round 3 To reduce lifecycle cost of foundations by 30% TDC target 0.4-0.6m/MW
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Offshore wind CAPEX breakdown

100 4 15 22 Development & consent Electrical Integrated support structure Production, Installation & commissioning

Foundations and installation

To stimulate the supply chain Particularly in volume manufacturing and installation To provide more competition and flexibility in the market
1. BVG Associates, 2009

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Turbine

Offshore wind CAPEX

10

Competition attracted 104 entries from around the World

Seven concepts were selected as finalists
104 88

9 7
Total entries Rejected in first round Rejected in second round Finalists
11

Seven finalists show innovation in structures and installation

Fixed structure Floating Offshore turbine Quay-side turbine assembly assembly Gravitybased Monopile
Ballast Nedam drilled concrete monopile MBD Offshore suction bucket monopile Keystone twisted jacket SPT Offshore & Wood Group tri-bucket OWPST Titan 3-leg jack-up Glosten tension leg platform
Concrete Steel

Gifford-BMT-Freyssinet Gravity Base Structure

Jacket Tri-bucket or jack-in Tensionleg

12

Ballast Nedam drilled monopile works best in shallower water

Structure Concrete monopile, built in sections easy to manufacture Suitable for up to 30m for smaller turbines Installation Drilled monopile Assembled in sections, which allows smaller lifting vessel Requires bespoke drilling barge

13

MBD suction bucket monopile is simpler to mftr and install

Structure Less steel, simple welds Suitable for 30-60m Installation Fewer offshore operations and smaller vessels and equipment Simpler installation as foundation towed out No piling Less scour protection required Decommissioning Easier to retrieve for decommissioning
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Keystone is an innovative jacket

Structure Twisted jacket uses less steel vs conventional jackets Elegant transition piece Uses innovative composite materials Proven in Hurricane Katrina Suitable for 30-60m Installation Faster installation time Fewer installation manoeuvres No driving template required Improved utilisation of deck space increases transportation efficiency
15

Gifford/BMT/Freyssinet gravity structure faster to build, install

Structure Slipforming stem reduces production time Mass fabrication process developed Concrete prices less variable than steel Suitable for 30-45m Installation Cheaper, bespoke unmanned vessel transports structure to wind farm Entire foundation / turbine structure could be transported Decommissioning Structure easy to de-ballast 16 and remove

SPT Offshore & Wood Group tribucket simple to install

Self Installing Wind Turbine (SIWT) Structure Self-installing tribucket Entire foundation / turbine structure assembled in port Suitable for 30-60m Installation Entire foundation / turbine structure transported to wind farm Standard marine equipment, eg, flat barge & tugs, strand jacks & suction No piling or drilling
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No heavy lift vessel required to install OWPSE Titan

Structure Entire foundation / turbine structure assembled in port Suitable for 35-45m Installation Whole structure transported to wind farm No heavy lift vessels required Three-legged jack-up structure means no piling or drilling; low impact to sea floor Maintenance Potentially at shore Decommissioning Easier to retrieve for decommissioning
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Glosten design takes floating turbines into shallower waters

Structure Tension leg, steel hull cost far less sensitive to depth than fixed structure Suitable for >55m in North Sea sea states shallower depths possible in regimes with lower sea states Installation Whole foundation / turbine floated to wind farm without heavy lift vessels Maintenance Potentially at shore Decommissioning Easier to retrieve for decommissioning
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Estimated installed costs show promise

5MW turbine, normal climate
Estimated installed cost per MW (m)

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.46 0.4 0.2 0.0

Depth

Leading designs at 35m & 45m depths

0.55
0.60 Target

35m

45m

Equivalent to 15-30% cost reduction

Note: Estimated costs include manufacturing and installation 20

OWA has chosen four designs for further development

Selected based on expected installed cost on R3 sites Gifford-BMT-Freyssinet Keystone

MBD

SPT Offshore & Wood Group

21

Wake Effects

Wake effects vision: increase yields, reduce financing costs

Objectives To reduce cost of energy by Reducing financing costs (P90:P50) by improving yield forecasting accuracy Increasing yields from large arrays To make software available in time for designing late Round 2 and Round 3 projects Approach Software tools currently used by partners were reviewed Literature review to inform direction of developments Benchmarking of seven wake effects models vs real data Accuracy measured vs partner and public data High fidelity testing, using small sector sizes Specific model improvements commissioned from vendors

22

Accuracy of models benchmarked vs actual data

1.2 1.1 Normalised Power 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1 2 3 4 5 Colum n 6 7 8 Model A Model B Model C Model D Model Db

Coloured lines Model Ec represent different Model F models F Stable Model or model variants
UpWind Measured Data Upper 25% Low er 25%

Model Ea

Case studies formed basis of benchmarking Under-prediction of wake effects identified in many scenarios The results enabled OWA to commission specific improvements to three packages and to develop one entirely new model Sophistication of engineering and CFD models has been increased to add greater realism and increase accuracy of predictions

23

OWA is starting to understand large wind farm wake effects

For example, upstream blockages and lateral speed-ups Higher fidelity models are providing unique insight into 3D effects Upstream blockages ahead of arrays Flow acceleration between rows and at edge of farms This has implications for Build-out of wind farms within zones Layout of farms
3m/s 10m/s

0m
Image courtesy of Ansys

2,500m

5,000m

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Access

Access vision: increase availability of large wind farms

To increase availability of large offshore wind farms to reduce cost of energy Increasing window for safe and efficient access to large-scale wind farms, far from shore Building on these improved access methods for re-thinking and improving other aspects of offshore wind operation To demonstrate access systems that will make a step-change in accessibility for late Round 2 and Round 3 offshore wind farms For both O&M and construction phases

25

Optimising O&M strategies will improve availability

Potential availability improvements vs current strategies Number of turbines 100 Near shore (0-50km) Intermediate (50-100km) Far shore (>100km) Low 200 Low 300 Low

Low

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

High

O&M model built to calculate wind farm availability Based on frequency of different sea states, transfer system limitations % points improvements identified vs benchmark strategies For example, using combinations of vessels and transfer systems to replace offshore bases with helicopter support
26

Screening market has revealed a technology gap

Current solutions focused on near-shore monopiles New systems required for Round 3 conditions Further from shore Heavier seas New foundations Technology gaps identified in Transfer systems Vessels Launch & recovery systems
27

Electrical Systems

Electrical Systems vision: improve efficiency of collection & transmission

To reduce the cost of energy from offshore wind through the development of new electrical systems To increase the efficiency and reliability of collecting and transmitting electricity from large-scale wind projects far from shore To increase the cost effectiveness of deploying such systems

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Our assessment suggests greatest benefits likely from higher voltage arrays
Technologies in scope 1 HVDC and DC systems Using DC rather than AC in arrays 2 Higher voltage arrays New configurations of higher voltage intra-array cabling 3 New drivetrains Alternatives to conventional generators
Eg, low speed permanent magnet, medium voltage, etc

Promising but may not be possible to achieve within R3 timescales

Significant cost reduction possible

Increasing turbines per loop to de-risk cable arrays Lighter transformers Reduced losses

Significant cost reduction possible But only possible if new technologies adopted by turbine manufacturers
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Agenda
Next steps

30

Foundations Stage II

New Foundations objective: Faster, cheaper installation

Stage I: Identify better foundation structures Gifford-BMT-Freyssinet Keystone Stage II: Faster, cheaper installation
Up to 6,000 turbines to install by 2020 Up to 2.5 per day OWA is issuing ITT for installers to optimise processes Faster installation Cheaper cost Foundation designers to optimise for Mass production Installation
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MBD

SPT & Wood Group

Wake Effects Stage II

Wake Effects: develop two wake effects models; assess measurement state of the art
Two wake effects models identified in Stage I to be further developed

A model with excellent predictive accuracy to be enhanced to include atmospheric effects A linearised CFD model with low computing requirements to be developed will offer capability of running more simulations
Data measurement campaign to be scoped

Confirm requirements for new lower-cost wind measurement equipment Develop a project for delivering lower cost data measurement

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Access Stage II

In late summer 2010, we will launch an Access competition

Competition for novel access systems three elements 1 2 3

Transfer systems

Vessels

Launch & recovery systems

Objective: safer transfer systems in heavy seas, far from shore Prize: OWA will fund development of short-listed designs Launch date: Expected to be late-Summer 2010
Images courtesy Ampelmann, Sea Energy, FOB, JP Kenny 33

Electrical Systems Stage II

Electrical systems to focus on higher voltage arrays

Engineering design study underway to validate costs and benefits of moving to higher voltage intra-array cabling Determining incremental impact of higher voltage on the wind farm design eg, transition piece, location of switchgear Engaging with suppliers to determine costs, performance and availability of equipment Determining the optimal voltage level
34

Questions?