CLIMATE CHANGE AS A MIGRATION DRIVER: EVIDENCE FROM COASTAL REGION OF BANGLADESH

Raiyan Al-Manusr Post Graduate student, Urban and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh
Researchers Workshop on Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific 14 September, 2011

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.

Background

In Bangladesh, the coastal area is particularly susceptible to various disasters

like cyclones, tidal surges and floods From 1970 to 2009, the total number of major cyclone is 26 The population of the area is about 35.08 million (BBS, 2003) It is expected to grow to about 41.8 million in 2015 and 57.9 million in 2050 (Falguni, 2009)

Impacts of recent Cyclone Sidr and AIla

Cyclone Sidr
Cyclone Sidr struck the southwest coast of Bangladesh with winds up to 240 kilometers per hour on 15 November 2007 The category 4( SaffirSimpson Hurricane Scale) storm was accompanied by tidal waves up to 5 meters high and surges up to 6 meters in some areas, breaching coastal and river embankments, flooding lowlying areas and causing extensive physical destruction About 2.3 million households affected to some degree by the effects of Cyclone Sidr where about 1 million were seriously affected The number of deaths was estimated at 3,406 and over 55,000 people sustaining physical injuries

Source: GoB, 2008

Impacts of recent Cyclone Sidr and AIla

The Joint Damage, Loss, and Needs Assessment (JDNLA) estimated the total dam age and losses 115.6 billion BDT (US$ 1.7 billion) 57.9 billion BDT in housing sector, 33.8 billion BDT in productive sector and 15.7 billion BDT in public infrastructure sector About 2 million people have lost income and employment in the affected areas

Cyclone Aila
The devastating cyclone Aila struck the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh on the midday of 25 May 2009
Unlike the Cat4 cyclone Sidr of 2007, Aila is a Cat1 cyclonic storm and hunted less lives, but its chain of devastation stayed active longer, even after two weeks of the storm passed

Impacts of recent Cyclone Sidr and AIla

According to the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management about 109,842 households have been affected by Aila in Khulna District where 58,499 households fully damaged and 51,343 households partially damaged About 46,600 people took refuge in the night of Aila and death toll climb up to 109

Officially 7392 acres of standing crops has been damaged where 3412 acres (46%) fully damaged
According to local estimate, the economic loss due to destruction of households stands well over BDT 450 million Roads and embankments is one of the worst affected sectors after Aila. It estimated that about 367 km of road is fully damaged and 1065 km is partially in Khulna District
Source: Unnayan Onneshan, 2009

Present situation

After this period, whats happening now?

Is everything going fine How they cope with

Khulna as a migrant City

It has also the highest concentration of urban poor amongst all the coastal towns and cities in Bangladesh In 2009, IIED ranked Khulna as one of the 15 most vulnerable cities in the world due to climate change

Khulna is the third largest urban agglomeration in Bangladesh with a population of +1.5 million
Khulna City

Fig: Khulna City and coastal region of Bangladesh

Khulna as a migrant City

In 2010, a survey has been conducted in major 4 slums where climate migrant took shelter after cyclone Sidr and Aila
69 climate migrant families have been surveyed to find out changing livelihood pattern and major factors that drive migration

Changing livelihood Pattern

Occupation of migrant
Before migration Occupation type Agriculture Shrimp Fishing Laborer Rickshaw/ Van Pulling Business Forest Baby Taxy Driver Informal Business Garage work Total Frequency 18 12 8 12 6 5 8 0 0 0 69 Percentage 26 17 12 17 9 7 12 0 0 0 100.00 After migration Frequency 0 0 0 22 27 7 0 3 6 4 69 Percentage 0 0 0 32 40 10 0 4 9 6 100.00

Khulna as a migrant City

Changing Income pattern

Before migration Income Range Below 4000 BDT 4000-5000 BDT 5001-6000 BDT 6001-7000 BDT 7001-8000 BDT Over 8ooo BDT Total Frequency 41 19 5 3 1 0 69 Percentage 59.42 27.54 7.25 4.35 1.45 0.00 100.00 Frequency 22 25 13 5 3 1 69 After migration Percentage 31.88 36.23 18.84 7.25 4.35 1.45 100.00

1 USD = 72 BDT

Khulna as a migrant City

Land ownership
70% have their own land before migration

44% have less than less than 3 acre of agricultural

30% have 3-5 acre of agricultural land 22% have 5-7 acre 4% have more than 7 acre of land

Housing
Before migration, all household had own housing unit But recently they have to pay for housing unit 41% paid a range 300-400 BDT

30% paid a range 200-300 BDT

17% paid a range 400-500 BDT 12% paid above 500 BDT

Present situation

Education
Before migration School Frequency Percentag e After migration Frequency Percentage

Govt. Primary School 33

59.32

25

40.32

Private school
Do not go to school Total

0
29 62

0.00
40.68 100.00

5
32 62

8.06
51.61 100.00

Policy guidelines

Think migration as a coping mechanism (emergency response) not adaptation strategy Develop bottom to up institutional framework where local authorities have the more administrative power Addressing climate-induced migration in policy framework for sustainable development

Thank You