Time for Weather

Again, for the simple reason that many modern almanacs, textbooks and even simple computer software programs are
‘dumbed down’ and omit any simple explanations of how weather systems really operate, not least about Kintyre, it
may be useful to say a little about reading weather charts and understanding forecasts.

Kintyre and Gigha, but not Rathlin Island, lie in The Gulf Stream, the prevailing winds are from the south-west.
Kintyre’s weather is very localised and one often only needs to go but yards, rather than miles, to escape the showers.

When rain comes in from The Atlantic and sweeps across the south end of Machrihanish Bay towards Campbeltown,
one will often find parallel rain bands sweeping across from Crinan to Lochgilphead, from West to East Loch Tarbert
and from Gigha, across Kintyre’s spine, to Carradale and across Arran to Brodick and Lamlash. It can be raining in
Tayinloan and Pirnmill but totally dry in Carradale and Brodick ! It can be dry and warm at Bellochantuy and yet wet
and cold in Glenbarr, just a couple of miles away.

So, what happens when a typical depression crosses Kintyre ?

Facing into a moderate West wind, the ‘low’ will lie about NNW and the depression will be moving from SW to NE.
There may be some low cumulus cloud on the horizon but, ahead of it and high up in the sky, one will see streaky
cirrus cloud and ‘mares’ tails’ precede the warm front.

This is closely followed by a thin, almost transparent, veil of cirrostratus cloud which may throw a halo round the sun
(or moon) - the open section of the halo indicating the direction of the oncoming weather.

The barometer will begin to fall and the wind will back - go anti-clockwise - to the South. Dense grey and thickening
stratus clouds will bring increasing amounts of rain and a further fall in the barometer. The wind will increase in
strength and again back further south, or south-east.

As the warm front passes, the barometer will steady and the wind will veer - go clockwise - to the SW as the rain
eases. The cold front now causes the barometer to fall again slightly and more rain comes as the winds backs again,
towards the south or south-east.

At the front itself, the wind veers sharply NW or N and, as the clouds now begin to break up, the barometer starts to
rise. Squally showers may continue for a while but the barometer will now continue to rise and the grey cumulus clouds
begin to separate indicating that ‘the low’ has taken its course. A depression could be 1,000 miles across, be slow
moving and take a week or more to pass !

Around ‘lows’, winds, angled about 20 or 30 degrees inwards, circulate anti-clockwise in The Northern Hemisphere -
clockwise in The Southern Hemisphere.

The centre of a ‘low’ lies about 60 degrees to the right of the individual’s direct line of sight when facing into the wind in
The Northern Hemisphere - to the left in The Southern Hemisphere.

Around ‘highs’, winds, angled outwards, circulate clockwise about their centres in The Northern Hemisphere - anti-
clockwise in The Southern Hemisphere. The centre of a ‘high’ will be to the left of the individual when facing into the wind in
The Northern Hemisphere - to the right in The Southern Hemisphere.

Cold and Occluded (Mixed) Fronts move forward faster than Warm Fronts.

Wind Strengths may be 30% less where isobars are curved tightly round a ‘low’ but may be 50% greater if the isobars are
curved round a ‘high’.

Isobars are drawn at 4 mb (millibar) intervals, from the centres of ‘lows’ and ‘highs’.

Two simple wind / speed conversions are easily remembered

Force 5 = 25mph 60mph = 100kph

Wind Speeds may be assessed quickly by looking at the distance between isobars. Thus the following comparison of
distances etc..

1
 Force 2 (About 4- 6 knots) From N. to S. England 360 miles
Force 3 (About 7-10 knots) From N. to S. Ireland 270 miles
Force 4 (About 11-16 knots) From N. to S. Wales 150 miles
Force 5 (About 17-21 knots) Blackpool to Newcastle 110 miles
Force 6 (About 22-27 knots) Bristol to Isle of Wight 85 miles
Force 7 (About 28-33 knots) Solway Firth to Newcastle 70 miles
Force 8 (About 34-40 knots) Dover to Calais/Boulogne 30 miles

Indications of approaching changes of weather and changes in the directions and forces of winds are shown less by the
height of the barometer than by its rate of falling or rising.

Weather forecasts are based on the average rates of change over 3-hourly periods.

Gale Warnings are reported as Imminent (in less than 6 hours), Soon (in the next 6 to 12 hours) and Later (in the next
12 to 24 hours).

Weather Systems being reported as moving Slowly (between 1 and 15 knots per hour), Steadily (15-20 knots), Rather
Quickly (25-35 knots), Rapidly (35-45 knots) and Very Rapidly (over 45 knots per hour).

If the barometer has been about 30.00” / 1015.9 mb at sea level and rises steadily while the thermometer falls and the
dampness in the air decreases, then a NW’ly, N’ly or NE’ly wind, or less wind, lees rain or less snow may be expected.

On the contrary, if a fall in the barometer takes place while the thermometer is rising and the dampness in the air is
increasing, wind and rain may be expected from the SE, S or SW.

When the barometer is rather below its ordinary height, near 29.5”/990.0 mb at sea level, then a rise indicates less
wind, or a change in wind direction to the N, or less wet.

When the barometer has been very low, about 29.0” / 982.0 mb, then the first rising usually precedes or indicates
strong winds, at times heavy squalls, from the NW, N or NE after which a gradually rising barometer indicates
improving weather, if the temperature falls.

If the warmth continues, the wind will back i.e. go anti-clockwise and a more S’ly or SW’ly wind will follow, especially
if the barometer’s rise is sudden. A height of more than 30.00” / 1015.9 mb at sea level is indicative of fine weather
and moderate wind except, occasionally, if the wind has been between N and E. With temperatures below 3 degrees
Centigrade / 37 degrees Fahrenheit, any fall in the barometer is likely to indicate the coming of snow.

The most dangerous shifts of wind, or the heaviest N’ly gales, happen soon after the barometer first rises from a very
low point; or, if the wind veers, goes clockwise, gradually, there will be N’ly gales at some time later.

A rapid rise of the barometer indicates unsettled weather; a slow movement the contrary; as, likewise, a steady
barometer, which, when continued - and with dryness in the air - indicates very fine weather.

A rapid and considerable fall is a sign of stormy weather and rain or snow. Alternate rising and falling of the barometer
indicates unsettled and threatening weather.

The greatest depression of the barometer are with gales from the SE, S or SW; the greatest elevations with wind from
the NW, N or NE or with a calm. A sudden fall of the barometer, with a W’ly wind, is sometimes followed by a
violent storm from the NW, N or the NE.

If a gale sets in from the E or SE and the wind veers by the S, the barometer will continue falling until the wind is near
a marked change at which time a lull may occur; after which the gale will be renewed, perhaps suddenly and violently
and the veering of the wind towards NW, N or NE will then be indicated by a rising of the barometer and a fall of the
thermometer.

After very warm and calm weather, a storm or squall, with rain, may follow; as it will at any time when the
atmosphere is heated much above the usual seasonal temperature.

The state of the air indicates coming weather rather than relating to any present weather.