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Journal of Cleaner Production 16 (2008) 1234e1246 www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro

An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK
J.M. Allwood*, S.E. Laursen, S.N. Russell, C. Malvido de Rodrguez, N.M.P. Bocken
Department of Engineering, Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, Mill Lane, Cambridge CB2 1RX, UK Received 31 January 2007; received in revised form 13 May 2007; accepted 5 June 2007 Available online 2 August 2007

Abstract Companies aiming to be sustainability leaders in their sector and governments wanting to support their ambitions need a means to assess the changes required to make a signicant difference in the impact of their whole sector. Previous work on scenario analysis/scenario planning demonstrates extensive developments and applications, but as yet few attempts to integrate the triple bottom line concerns of sustainability into scenario planning exercises. This paper, therefore, presents a methodology for scenario analysis of large change to an entire sector. The approach includes calculation of a triple bottom line graphic equaliser to allow exploration and evaluation of the trade-offs between economic, environmental and social impacts. The methodology is applied to the UKs clothing and textiles sector, and results from the study of the sector are summarised. In reecting on the specic study, some suggestions are made about future application of a similar methodology, including a template of candidate solutions that may lead to signicant reduction in impacts. 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Scenario analysis; Sustainability; Industrial sector; Clothing and textiles

1. Introduction Work to date in the broad area of industrial ecology has a strong focus on measurement, and if practical change is discussed, it is usually expressed through the instruments of policy and economics or in the language of sociology. This approach implicitly assumes that a catalogue of potential practical changes to production, product design or product usage exists, so that the requirements for change are related to selection and motivation. However, there appears to be a shortage of work in specifying such a catalogue of the potential changes that should be considered. Such a casual attitude to practical change would be justied if sufcient changes had already been identied and were ready for implementation, but this is far from the case. For example, within the area of carbon emissions reduction, the

* Corresponding author. Tel.: 44 1223 338181; fax: 44 1223 338076. E-mail address: jma42@cam.ac.uk (J.M. Allwood). 0959-6526/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2007.06.014

UKs Carbon Trust is committed to the UK governments target of a 60% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050 and has explored the range of changes that might lead to this. Development of alternative energy supplies is anticipated to contribute w16%, and the use of hydrogen based fuel cells may extend this. However, the bulk of the reduction (more than 60%), which is expected to come from energy efciency measures, is not linked to specic technologies. The Carbon Trusts publicity material gives two examples: low energy light bulbs and timed lighting switches, but these will make a negligible contribution. Their 2005 abatement curve [1] which reports on potential carbon savings for the UK industry sector, can identify only around 25% of existing carbon emissions that can be saved through known technologies. While motivation and implementation of change are important aspects of developing a sustainable future, it appears that the identication of practical solutions that will make a signicant change is also extremely important, but often overlooked. In prior work, a comprehensive survey of known practical changes that might lead to increased sustainability has been

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presented by Russell and Allwood [2], with a broader description of the context of such change in Russell [3]. The survey attempted to provide a categorisation of practical changes to product design, production processes and supply chain operation that have been implemented to date. However, being a survey, this work considered only what has been done previously. Looking forwards, what are the really important changes that should be considered and may not yet have been attempted? How will practical changes that lead to substantial reductions in undesirable impacts be identied? One approach to answering these questions is to use structured scenario analyses to consider the consequences of widescale change to existing systems, and this approach is gaining increasing attention in the pursuit of sustainability solutions. This paper presents a methodology to apply scenario analysis to examine the future sustainability of a whole industrial sector and demonstrates its application in a ve person-year study of the future supply of clothing and textiles products to meet UK demand [4]. Section 2 of the paper reviews previous work on scenario analysis, particularly as applied to sustainability. In Section 3, a methodology for applying scenario analysis to a whole sector is developed, and its specic application to the UK clothing and textiles sector is described. The results of that study are reviewed in Section 4, and in conclusion, Section 5 reects on the approach in the hope that it may be benecial for future studies of other sectors. A brief introduction to the clothing and textiles sector is given in the Appendix. 2. Scenario analysis and its application to sustainability A range of future techniques are used by organisations and policy makers to gain insights into what the future may look like, thereby laying the foundation for informed decision-making. Pesonen et al. [5] provide a glossary of denitions of such futures research methods which include forecasting and scenario analysis. One of the major aws in analytical techniques such as forecasting is that patterns extrapolated from historical events are imposed with the implicit assumption that the world will remain relatively stable, and the future is predicted based on events of the past. Bood and Postma [6] suggest that the rise of (multiple) scenario analysis has occurred due to the failure of traditional forecasting techniques to provide credible results. A survey of industrial corporations in the USA in the period 1977e1981 showed that less than a third expressed satisfaction with traditional forecasting techniques [7]. In fact, according to Wack [8], dissatisfaction with formal planning and forecasting techniques led to widespread development and use of scenario analysis, also termed scenario planning [9e11]. Schoemaker [10] gives a comparison between scenario planning and other traditional planning techniques. The development of scenario analysis has been inuenced by a number of companies and institutes including the RAND Corporation, Stanford Research Institute, Shell and others [12]. Shell is credited with the introduction of scenario analysis in the private sector, where it was developed for

strategic purposes and has been in use since the 1960s [13]. The development was driven by Pierre Wack and Edward Newland for strategic decision-making purposes. 2.1. Denitions and classications of scenarios There is no universal denition of scenarios. Kahn and Wiener [14], who explored the possible consequences of nuclear proliferation in World War II, dene a scenario as a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points [15]. Godet and Roubelat [16] dene a scenario as a description of a future situation and the course of events which allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Van der Heijden [17] describes scenarios as tools to research ones understanding of the world. In line with the critical realism paradigm the objective is to challenge ones own mental model of the future. By stretching these variables to their limits of credibility, one tries to create a number of possible futures which, while plausible, are signicantly different from business as usual. Many authors emphasise that scenarios do not predict, rather they allow us to examine what might happen [18]. Rienstra [19] outlines the three basic elements of scenarios as a description of: (1) the present situation, (2) a number of future situations and (3) a number of events that may connect the present situation with the future one. Godet [20], Godet and Rouebelat [16] and van Veen-Croot et al. [21] distinguish exploratory and normative or anticipatory scenarios. Exploratory scenarios developed from description of the past extrapolated by present trends indicate which scenarios might happen and then proceed to describe the possible future outcomes. These types of scenarios are used to stimulate thinking about the possible futures and aim to examine what can happen. For normative or anticipatory scenarios the starting point is the desired future situation and these types of scenarios explore how a certain target can be reached after which targets are set and paths that will lead to the stated future are described. Notten et al. [22] distinguish between normative and descriptive scenarios. Normative scenarios (also referred to as prospective, strategy, policy or intervention scenarios) describe probable or preferable futures while descriptive scenarios (also referred to as baseline, reference and non-intervention scenarios) explore possible futures. Fukushima and Hirao [23] and Notten et al. [22] distinguish back-casting and forecasting scenarios depending on the vantage point from which the scenario is developed. Backcasting scenarios reason from a specic future situation and then explore the paths needed to be taken to move towards that point and arrive at desirable future situations, while forecasting scenarios take the present as their starting point and project todays problems, trends and realistic solutions onto the future. Leemhuis [24] classies scenarios based on the time horizons used for the planning process: business cycle scenarios for shorter periods of up to ve years, archetype scenarios for a horizon of 10e15 years and exploratory scenarios for very long-term periods. Ringland [13] classies scenarios

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as external, internal or system scenarios based on whether or not the inuences are under the control of the organisation undertaking the study. External scenarios are those that exclusively consist of inuences outside the control of the organisation, internal scenarios take only factors under the control of the organisation into consideration and system scenarios which are mixed forms of external and internal scenarios containing external environmental inuences as well as internal guidance dimensions. Scenarios also differ according to their subject of study and are classied as issue-based, area-based and institution-based [22]. Issue-based scenarios take societal issues as the subject of study; area-based scenarios explore a particular geographical area such as a country, region or city; institutionbased scenarios (also subdivided into so-called macro, global, archetypal, framework, external or contextual scenarios on one hand and focused, decision, internal or transactional on the other) address the spheres of interest of an organisation, group of organisations or sector. Scenarios may also be classied based on the nature of the data as qualitative or quantitative scenarios. Van Veen-Croot et al. [21] term the latter objective methods and the former subjective. Notten et al. [22] further classify scenarios based on the range of possible futures taken into account as alternative or business as usual. They explain that alternative scenarios describe futures that differ signicantly from one another and often developed in an effort to raise awareness and understanding about new or uncertain issues, while business as usual scenarios adhere to the status-quo or to present trends and their extrapolation into the future, where the aim is to ne-tune strategy rather than develop new strategy, for example. Scenario analysis is claimed by various authors to full a wide range of functions. The functions given below are from Rienstra et al. [25].  The signalling function e scenarios provide better insight into uncertain situations  The communication and learning function e scenarios stimulate thinking about alternative futures  The exploring and explaining function e scenarios show how solutions for specic problems may become reality, given certain policy priorities; they also present possible solution strategies  The demonstration function e scenarios show the consequences of specic decisions  The decision support function Additional information on other quite similar functions of scenarios is given by Bood and Postma [6]. 2.2. Scenario analysis in sustainable development and LCA studies Interest in using scenario analysis as a means of visualising plausible future paths for sustainable development has been growing recently. The paradigm of sustainable development inherently embraces futures research and thinking as the denitions and goals refer to both present and future generations

and according to Kelly et al. [26], sustainable development is generally motivated by a real concern for the long-term well being of humanity. Various international organisations have developed global-level scenarios to indicate the implications of future global actions. For example, UNEP [27] in global environment outlook (GEO-3) has developed four scenarios: the Market First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the various expectations that prevail in industrialised countries; the Policy First scenario in which strong actions are undertaken by government in an attempt to reach specic social and environmental goals; the Security First scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where irregularity and conict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses; the Sustainability First scenario pictures a world in which a new developmental paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability. The Global Scenario Group [28] has developed three global scenarios: Conventional Worlds in which the global system evolves without major surprises; Barbarization scenarios which envision the grim possibility that social, economic and moral underpinnings of civilisation deteriorate; Great Transitions scenarios which explore visionary solutions to the sustainability challenge. Other global scenarios include the IPCCs emissions scenarios [29]. Quist and Vergragt [30] give an extensive review of work using back-casting to anticipate more sustainable futures. Their emphasis is on a particular development from work largely carried out by analysts to participatory back-casting with extensive (and apparently in some cases, virtually exclusive) stakeholder dialogue used to consider simultaneously the denition of desirable futures and the means to attain them. They use the SusHouse project [31] as a particular example of the back-casting technique, aiming to consider scenarios in which future consumption is reduced and which includes a study of sustainable futures for clothing care. Such a study can clearly be undertaken effectively with a process based on stakeholder participation e but is primarily based on opinions rather than numerical analysis or modelling e for instance, the economic analysis in the project was achieved by means of a questionnaire. Such stakeholder led back-casting based on opinion gathering might be less effective in considering more broad structural changes to a sector, such as the location of production, selection of materials, or changes at a macro-economic level. Scenario analysis is increasingly being incorporated into life cycle assessment (LCA) as a means of analysing possible future outcomes on the environment. For example, Ubbels et al. [32] used four globalisation scenarios to analyse the development of the international transport sector, Tan and Khoo [33] analysed the environmental performance of a primary aluminium supply chain and Sonesson and Berlin [34] analysed the environmental impact of future supply chains for dairy products. Even though scenarios are in some sense an integral part of LCA studies, they were not always dealt with explicitly and as such the SETAC-Europe LCA Working Group Scenario Development in LCA started work in 1998, with the goal of

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focusing on the use of scenarios in life cycle assessment. The group denes a scenario in LCA as a description of a possible future situation relevant for specic LCA applications based on specic assumptions about the future, and (when relevant) also including the presentation of the development from the present to the future [5]. The two general classications of scenarios in life cycle assessment studies used by the group are what-if scenarios and cornerstone scenarios: what-if scenarios, the more widely used of the two, are generally used to compare two or more options in a situation familiar to the researcher, whereby a hypothesis can be dened on the basis of existing data. They are often studies where some specic changes within the present system are tested and their environmental impacts studied. The results of an LCA study using what-if scenarios are typically quantitative comparisons of the selected options, offering operational information in short- or medium-term decision-making situations. Cornerstone scenarios do not necessarily give quantied results comparing different alternatives, but offer guidelines in the eld of study and typically serve as a base to further research. In LCA studies using cornerstone scenarios several options (which can be very different) are chosen. The alternatives serve as cornerstones of the specic eld, allowing for an overall view of the eld of study. 3. Methodology for scenario analysis of sustainability The introduction to this paper offered a challenge e what would lead to major change in the impacts of a sector? The review of the previous section showed that scenario analysis has been widely developed and is increasingly being used for exploring options for future sustainability. This paper aims to build on previous work in two ways.  Where LCA studies have incorporated scenarios, they have focused on purely environmental measures. The paper proposes additionally the use of quantitative economic and social measures to develop a graphic equaliser of sustainability indicators to allow comparison of different scenarios.  Previous studies have used scenario analysis to consider the future of urban or regional systems, products and supply chains. This paper attempts to apply scenario analysis to a whole sector. According to the classications in Section 2.1, the paper specically aims at exploratory scenarios: the aim is to explore the possibility that an entire sector could be redesigned and to evaluate the potential sustainability of such alternative designs, in order to anticipate targets to direct current decision-making. Quist and Vergragt [30] discuss creation of future visions but limit their discussion to scenarios which conceptualise technological and social innovations that are imaginable now [31] and emphasise the creation of followup agendas and implementation plans. In exploring possible long-term futures of a complex sector, such as the clothing and textiles sector, the creation of such plans would be

difcult, and probably largely hypothetical. For this study, the development of a transition process to connect the present to the future scenarios was deemed less important than identifying the scenarios that would lead to a major change in impacts. This approach could be questioned: are scenarios created in this way meaningful if a change process has not been specied? In a specic business strategy exercise, the answer to this question would probably be negative. However, in considering long-term ambitions of sustainability the transition process is clearly complex, and depends greatly on the willingness of customers. In turn, customers are inuenced by their vision of how their choices might lead to a more sustainable future and what that future could be. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to dene targets to give a vector for future decision-making and information. The literature contains various models for constructing scenario analyses, all with a similar basic structure. Fig. 1 presents the process as described in this paper. The blocks at the left of the gure are typical of such processes in the literature, and are adapted from Bood and Postma [6]. The process is as far as possible undertaken sequentially, but it is an interactive and iterative process where nal scenarios are constantly being rened to come up with an agreed set of scenarios to examine for a particular situation. The right side of the diagram emphasises the signicance of dialogue between the project team and representatives of stakeholder groups across the sector. The remainder of this section describes key components of the process of Fig. 1.

3.1. Understanding the sector as it is A rst requirement for analysing the future of a sector is to characterise its operation at present. For most sectors, associations and analysts will have this knowledge, so from literature searches it is possible to develop an initial map of the range of businesses required to allow completion of nal consumer products. However, such a map is in fact a snapshot of how the sector operates at present e and represents only one stage in its evolution. The current arrangement of businesses, their location and size, capabilities and culture, have evolved over time to balance various objectives, and will continue to change. The objective of scenario analysis is to consider whether a different form of the sector would allow a different balance between these objectives, specically as far as this paper goes, balancing the objectives of the triple bottom line. Accordingly, an inuence diagram can be prepared e to characterise the major inuences that have led to the current format of the sector, and its consequences. Strategy courses in business schools typically use a PEST (Political, Economic, Social, Technological) framework for analysis of the external forces acting on a business or sector e or in a more extended form a PESTLECH framework (adding Legal, Ecological, Cultural and Historic factors). In the context of sustainability, the consequences of the operation of the sector can be grouped according to the economic, environmental and social measures of the triple bottom line.

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Fig. 1. Scenario analysis process as applied in this paper.

Successful characterisation of a sector depends on gathering information from experts across the sectors, each having a particular and sometimes conicting perspective. Accordingly, both the sector map and inuence diagram must be developed iteratively e presenting a draft to experts across the sector and revising it in the light of their comments. One formal methodology designed with a similar purpose is the so-called Delphi Study e rst gathering opinions from experts through a questionnaire, and then in a second round, asking for a ranking of the importance of the opinions. This was attempted with the clothing and textiles sector, but was only partially successful due to the difculty of asking sufciently open questions and receiving structured information. In parallel, a less formal dialogue proved equally important, with information being gathered from experts within the industry, associated academics and journalists at trade shows, exhibitions, seminars, workshops and conferences and through follow-up conversations. The resulting sector map and simplied inuence diagram for the supply of clothing and textiles to the UK are shown in Figs. 2 and 3. 3.2. Selecting scenarios for analysis The intention of the scenario analysis of the sector is to anticipate changes that will lead to signicant reductions in negative environmental or social impacts. Accordingly, the inuence diagram of Fig. 3 shows two approaches to developing scenarios for future analysis: scenarios could be built around attempts to change a specic impact (for instance, reducing climate change impact); scenarios could be built

around change in one of the forces inuencing the evolution of the sector (for instance, changed trade barriers). In addition, dialogue within the sector can reveal future trends as identied by current experts e although these may be less interesting in anticipating future sustainability, if they are a result of business as usual. For the study of clothing and textiles, all three approaches were taken to develop a long-list of candidate scenarios. These were then grouped into four themes associated with the forces acting on the sector, and two or three scenarios identied within each theme. The themes and scenarios used for analysis are shown in Table 1. UK consumers buy approximately three billion garments per year, so any attempt to analyse change to the sector as a whole would be unrealistically arduous. In order to give a realistic basis for analysis, three representative case study products were chosen e and the scenario analyses performed for one or more of these three products. The three products used are described in Table 2 with brief details of the assumptions made about each. They span a range of material types (natural (cotton), synthetic (polyamide) and man-made (viscose)) and a range of markets (basic-garment (T-shirt), fashion garment (blouse), industrial (carpet)). Care is required in extrapolating results from these products, to the global future of the sector. 3.3. Predictive triple bottom line assessment of scenarios Given data about the production of each of the case study products and based on the decisions associated with each scenario, a set of numerical measures (with associated qualitative

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APPAREL INDUSTRY SERVICE PROVIDERS

Clothing (fashion)

RETAIL
Distribution and retail

POST-CONSUMER RECOVERY AND DISPOSAL

AGRICULTURE

TEXTILE INDUSTRY
Finished fabric

- high street - supermarket - specialist - online shop - independent store

Fibre

Yarn

Fabric

Interior and home textiles

Textile services

Private use / consumption

Textile applications
- transport - hotels - construction - hospitals - furniture - public services - agriculture

Commercial use

CHEMICAL FIBRE INDUSTRY

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

NON-CONVENTIONAL TEXTILE PROCESSING

Fig. 2. Sector map for the clothing and textiles sector (from Well dressed?, Allwood et al. [4]).

information) is required to allow comparison between the scenarios. A difculty in all discussion of sustainability is that by denition many different measures must be considered, often with different units. In order to assist in comparing the impacts

predicted for each scenario, the different measures will be presented in a consistent form using a graphic equaliser. Environmental assessment of scenarios was conducted using a standard LCA approach based on the Danish methodology for

INFLUENCES
Political

AGRICULTURE +MINERALS RAW MATERIALS

EFFECTS
Environmental Economic Climate change - laundry Toxic chemicals - cotton agriculture, pre-treatment, dyeing, printing Waste to landfill Water consumption - cotton 7% of world exports ~26 million direct employees Volume growing prices dropping Major export earner for some countries Working hours, safety, child labour Labour insecurity Minimum living wage/ legal wage Rights to association

Economic

Sociological

FIBRE

Technological
FABRIC

Legal
PRODUCTS

Social

Ecological
RETAIL
R RE EUS RE CYC E CO LE VE R

Cultural

Historical

USE

DISPOS AL

Fig. 3. Inuence diagram for the clothing and textiles sector.

1240 Table 1 Themes and scenarios used for analysis Theme Production structure Scenarios

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Consumer inuence New materials and processes Government inuence

Localise production in the UK Localise production in the UK and use innovative labour saving technologies Localise production in the UK, use innovative labour saving technologies, and base production on locally recycled materials Extending the life of clothing Best practice in clothes cleaning Alternative bres Green manufacturing Smart functions Reduced barriers to free trade Imposition of eco-tax

environmental design of industrial products. Calculations were performed using the GaBi-EDIP software. The data used for the analysis was based on that collected from the Danish EDIPTEX project [35] and is believed to be the most comprehensive for analysis of clothing and textiles products. Boundaries around the analysis were set to include inputs of energy, water and auxiliaries, but exclude capital goods, services and infrastructure. Typically, LCA studies report many impact categories. However, in aiming to present measures across the triple bottom line of sustainability in a comprehensible format, some selection was required to limit the number of environmental impacts reported. Three categories were chosen to attempt to represent overall impacts: climate change impact (reported in thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent), waste volume (reported in thousand tonnes) and an aggregated environmental index which gave a single measure of ozone depletion, acidication,

nutrient enrichment and photochemical ozone formation. The impacts within this aggregated index are usually reported separately, so were expressed in Person Equivalent Targeted units e normalised to the fair share of one person e and weighted according to political reduction targets. Strictly, LCA studies are only comparable within identical boundaries e so the use of LCA for scenario analysis which might include alternative processes, materials or locations could be misleading. To attempt to minimise discrepancies from such changes, it was assumed that all electrical energy was generated according to the prole of a single country. No formal third party review of the study and the results has been carried out as this is not required by the ISO 14044 standard. However, the LCA model and the nal results have been discussed with experts at LCA center, Denmark. Based on the spot sample carried out no signicant errors were identied and the overall approach was judged to be well suited to full the goals of the study. Economic assessment has been carried out via a simplied set of National accounts calculated for each country involved in the scenario. The accounting system is based on the European System of Accounts (ESA) 1995 framework as applied in the UK [36] and illustrated in Fig. 4. For each product, an account of costs is created, showing the build up of the retail price to UK consumers in which all prots taken by companies in the supply chain are recorded as costs. Transfer prices are calculated as the product passes between tiers of the supply chain. Relevant components of the accounts are allocated to the country in which each activity occurs (it is assumed that all companies are owned within the country in

Country 1 Cost of farming/mining

Country 2

UK

Table 2 Three case study products Knitted cotton T-shirt Cotton farmed and spun in the USA Woven viscose blouse Tufted polyamide carpet Viscose made from cellulose harvested and processed in India Polyamide face bres and polypropylene primary backing made in the USA Latex secondary backing made in the UK Carpet tufted and dyed in the UK largely using automated machinery Wholesale and retail in the UK (8.5 million m2 per year) Vacuum cleaning only in use over a 10-year life-span Landll after disposal

Transfer price (material) Cost of material processing Transfer price (fibre) Cost of spinning etc Transfer price (yarn) Cost of weaving/knitting Transfer price (fabric) Cost of making up Transfer price (wholesale) Cost of retail Price to consumer

+/

+/

+/

Yarn knitted, dyed, cut and sewn in China

Fibre is spun, woven, dyed, cut and sewn in India Wholesale and retail in the UK (33 million per year)

Wholesale and retail in the UK (460 million per year)

Gross National Income Balance of Trade Operating surplus

Twenty-ve washes Twenty-ve washes at 60  C with at 40  C with tumble drying and ironing hang drying and no ironing Incinerated after disposal Incinerated after disposal

People employed

Fig. 4. Economic model for scenario assessment (example for cotton T-shirt).

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which they operate). A contribution of the product to gross national income of each country can be calculated. In addition, for the UK, the balance of trade and an operating surplus are calculated. A key decision in developing an economic model for use in this context is to determine how consumer prices vary as production/supply-chain costs change. There are several possibilities: prices could be held constant, so that any change in cost is reected in a reduction in prots; prot margins could be xed, so that any change in cost is reected in a change in nal price to the consumer; a market model could be used to predict the proportion of changed costs that would be passed to the consumer, and to incorporate some form of price elasticity to show sales volumes changing with price. Naturally, the simplest choice (xed prices) assumes unrealistic consumer behaviour, while more complex models are strongly dependent on their assumptions. The intention of this work was to nd a simple way to link predictions across the triple bottom line so a simple model was required. Given that the three case study products are commodities, the price is largely determined by competitors, so the model used assumed xed consumer prices with all intermediate prots (for instance to raw material suppliers) treated as costs. Thus a change in supply chain costs leads to a change in the protability of the retailer in the UK, and hence to the UKs operating surplus, but the product price and demand volume is assumed to be constant. The economic quantitative predictions of the analysis should, therefore, be interpreted as indicators of effects that will create change, not as accurate predictions of the nal change e the retailer would not continue to sell commodity products at a loss and would either change supplier or increase the price. Quantitative social assessment is problematic as most of the social consequences of operation of the sector are difcult to quantify in a way that could be meaningfully related to the economic model. However, a reasonable prediction can be made of the number of people employed due to the case study products based on gures for productivity and working hours. This is only partially meaningful e if a country has full employment then

any new jobs created within a sector must be substitutes for other jobs e so will cause loss of activity elsewhere. However, in the case of the clothing sector, in agriculture and production in particular, this approach is reasonable, as most jobs are relatively unskilled and low paid, so will be available to those who might otherwise struggle to nd employment. For each theme, the quantitative measures described above were calculated for the basecase (production of the case study products as at present) and under the conditions of each scenario. The full results are presented in Allwood et al. [4] with further details in the associated technical annex to that report. A summary of the quantitative results of the analysis for the cotton T-shirt in the basecase and scenarios for theme 1 (as described in Table 1) is given in Table 3, demonstrating the extensive data generated by the process. Presentation of the results of the analysis in a table requires very careful reading to evaluate the trade-offs between measures of quite different impacts. To assist in this interpretation and provide a visual means to aid discussion of the compromises implied by a triple bottom line, the results have been presented with a graphic equaliser as illustrated for the data of Table 3 in Fig. 5. The intention of this display is to demonstrate rstly, which scenarios lead to signicant change in key measures, and secondly to allow comparison between changes in different measures. Thus the display is intended primarily to allow comparison of relative change in magnitudes, not to make decisions about whether one particular measure is more important than another. Accordingly, a scale factor was dened for each of the measures e so that the graphic equaliser display was consistent between all case study products and all scenarios. The resulting images allow visual comparison between scenarios, across measures and between countries. Both Table 3 and Fig. 5 give the same information, but from Fig. 5 it is immediately clear that, in the case of the cotton T-shirt: energy use is dominated by laundry (in the UK); the major economic benet is in the UK (due to the high gross margins of retail); shifting production to the UK would cause a surge of jobs in the UK and extremely high

Table 3 Summary of quantitative results from scenario analysis for the cotton T-shirt in theme 1 Environment Climate change (1000 tonnes CO2 equivalent) USA Basecase Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Basecase Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Basecase Basecase Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 969 954 876 448 1918 2239 2169 2523 374 3261 3193 3044 2971 Waste (1000 tonnes) 161 161 148 75 208 220 222 255 12 381 381 369 331 Environmental impact (PET/1000) 313 307 281 144 266 301 293 330 88 667 608 575 474 Social Employment (in thousands) 10 10 9 2 26 173 27 32 108 144 183 36 34 Economic GNI (m) Balance of trade (m) Operating surplus (m)

UK

China Global total

252 252 231 47 2,318 2,968 2,989 3,174 650

902 252 231 46

1,887 111 2,541 2,645

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United Kingdom: impacts

United States of America: impacts
CCI WASTE EI

BOT

CCI

WASTE

EI

OS

GNI

EMP

GNI

EMP

China: impacts
CCI WASTE EI

Key
Base case Changing the location of existing operations Changed location with new production technology Change location with new production technology and local recycling CCI WASTE EI
GNI EMP

Global: impacts
Fig. 5. Example of the graphic equaliser display of triple bottom line effects (from Well dressed?, Allwood et al. [4]).

costs (shown in the low operating surplus) which could be avoided by new labour saving technology; shifting production to the UK has little environmental benet, but manufacturing with recycled materials would be signicant. 3.4. Stakeholder dialogue The scenarios of Table 1 were analysed according to the measures of Section 3.3, and the results were presented as a draft report, including box stories of associated information indicating major impacts or consequences of each scenario that arose from the inuences diagram of Fig. 3 but were not captured in the quantitative model. This draft report was circulated widely to stakeholders across the sector with a request for feedback. The feedback proved strongly valuable e in identifying results that were partial or misleading, and conrming or challenging the conclusions from the quantitative analysis. In fact, it appears that the highest quality of feedback could be achieved once a draft report was completed e as it presented, in some cases, a challenge to existing views. A time limit was set for receiving comments, and the nal report prepared from the draft after all feedback had been considered. 4. Results from analysis of the UK clothing and textiles sector The graphic equaliser displays for each scenario were used to draw conclusions about the future of the sector,

and for each scenario, discussion based on the inuences diagram of Fig. 3 allowed consideration of other consequences, and of the challenge to implementing such change. An obvious question arising from each scenario is whether it is likely that this might develop e and this led to the realisation that any of the scenarios considered could become reality if the UKs consumers collectively wished it. From this, it was possible to develop a description of the ideal behaviour of consumers that would drive change in the sector. Having done so, it becomes possible to structure a discussion about existing barriers that inhibit development of such behaviour e and hence to means by which the barriers might be overcome. 4.1. Scenario assessment Analysis of the effects of changed production structure showed that for the cotton T-shirt, energy consumption is dominated by the use-phase, so changes in production structure, including recycling have little effect on energy use e as the same use requirements remain. As the energy required for laundry typically comes from electricity, this means that waste volumes (dominated by mining waste from extracting fossil fuels) are also largely unaffected. However, for the viscose blouse and the carpet, where energy requirements are concentrated in the material phase, recycling is benecial. The use of energy for transport is proportionately low in all three cases so localisation on its own has little benet, and shifting cutting

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and sewing operations from Asia to the UK, causes the loss of jobs in Asia and economic loss in the UK due to the high costs of employing such labour. However, if labour saving technology can be used, the UK would benet from such a shift. Such technologies are being developed e 3D knitting machines capable of manufacturing whole garments without manual intervention are now common in producing underwear, swimwear, sports wear and T-shirts amongst others. The global proportion of seamless underwear production rose from 2% in 1998 to 18% in 2003. Automated production of clothes from recycled materials would potentially be economically attractive in the UK and globally environmentally benecial at the cost of lost jobs in Asia. Analysis of changed consumer behaviour showed that a consumer decision to reduce the energy used in laundry, particularly of cotton products, would be highly signicant. The two key areas of change arise from switching from tumble drying to hang drying (preferably outdoors to avoid any demand for increased heating), and washing at lower temperatures. For products in which the material or production phases dominate impacts, consumer change to extend the life of products would be immediately benecial. Some examples of this occur with hiring clothes (for weddings, or for work uniforms) which could be extended, and the centuries old tradition of clothes repair could be renewed through design for repair, labour saving technologies and new approaches to the supply of spare parts. Conventional cotton agriculture requires intense use of toxic chemicals in growth and prior to harvesting. The toxic impact of cotton would be greatly reduced by a switch to organic cotton, and although this would lead to higher prices (organic cotton is currently around 50% more expensive than conventional cotton) the total cost of cotton in a typical 7 T-shirt is around 0.28, so the price rise is not signicant if other processes are unaffected. Currently capacity for organic cotton growing is constrained, but potentially this can be overcome. A switch from man-made to natural bres in carpet manufacture would have mixed economic and environmental effects, and the analysis was inconclusive. However, innovation with smart functions able to change the behaviour of bres in use appears to be valuable: nano-technology coatings that extend the life of man-made carpet could reduce demand for production of new products and hence have a net benet; novel smart functions able to allow more wear of a garment between laundry cycles would have benet for all materials. A potential drawback from such innovations is that they may inhibit recycling and they are some way from gaining consumer condence. If all remaining trade barriers were removed, production structures would be unlikely to change signicantly, but the removal of current cotton subsidies in the USA (equal to roughly 25% of the market price) would make USA cotton less attractive and allow increased cotton trade from poorer countries. In the past ve years, removal of trade barriers has led to reduced prices for UK consumers e and more liberalisation would be likely to promote this effect further.

4.2. The ideal consumer For many of the environmental impacts of the clothing and textiles sector, change depends largely on consumer choice e to launder clothes in a different way, and to buy fewer of them. Based on the assessment of the sector, it is possible to propose a model of ideal consumer behaviour.  Second hand purchases, leasing items that would otherwise not be used to the end of their natural life, and repairing (or updating) old garments are all environmentally preferable to purchasing new products requiring new materials. For cotton this behaviour would signicantly reduce toxicity and for man-made materials, it would signicantly reduce energy requirements dominated by production.  Purchasing decisions should be based on accurate information about the environmental impacts of their production and the social conditions of those involved in their production.  Clothes should be washed less frequently and less intensively, hang drying and ironing should be avoided where possible.  Used clothing and textiles should be disposed through recycling businesses that would return them for second hand sale where possible, but otherwise recycle the yarn or bres.

4.3. Barriers to change and means to address them The ideal behaviour described above depends on collective action e heroic behaviour by a few purchasers would have little benet e and it is inhibited by several barriers.  Consumers in the UK are generally wealthy enough to purchase clothing and textiles as much for fashion as function, and to replace them before the end of their natural life. Recently, prices have dropped and consumers have beneted from fast fashion introducing new styles more than four times per year, so may be reluctant to pay extra for more responsibly made products. UK consumers do not necessarily see a connection between their purchases and negative (but invisible from the UK) social and environmental consequences.  At present, the prots of UK businesses involved in the clothing and textiles supply chain are generally linked to volume of sales, so reduced volumes will inhibit protability unless prices rise.  UK government policy on the environment considers only impacts created within the UK, yet in many of the scenarios, for global environmental indicators to show an improvement, UK indicators must worsen.  Repair is generally labour intensive and expensive, and the rise of fast fashion has led to a ow of cheaper but lower quality garments into the UK that are more difcult to repair.

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 UK used clothes collection could be increased with improved infrastructure, and textiles and clothing recycling could be improved with better technologies.  Most clothes washing aims to remove odour but uses a process capable also of removing stains. A reduced intensity process that removes odour but not stains would allow a reduction in current washing frequencies. Various possible mechanisms for overcoming these barriers emerged through discussions with stakeholders.  Consumer motivation towards the ideal behaviour could be promoted by education e with high quality information provided by educators, journalists and campaigners as well as by business and government.  The people who help to develop fashion leadership could build the idea of durability into future styles.  The ow of new material driven by the sector could be halved without economic loss if consumers paid twice as much for products which last twice as long.  Retailers e who are the strongest players in the clothing and textile supply chain and are largely UK based e can seek alternative forms of revenue through new business models including repair services, supply of novel coatings and fashion upgrades as an alternative to sales related to material ow.  Investment in technology will support development of improved recycling technologies, lower temperature washing and coatings or other processes to extend product life and reduce washing intensity.  An eco-tax could penalise products using virgin material and be used to fund development of material re-use. Legislation may be able to inhibit some toxic impacts but is difcult to apply internationally. The UK government could assert environmental and social responsibility as part of its negotiation of future international trade agreements. 5. Discussion The paper has presented a methodology for triple bottom line scenario analysis of large-scale change to a sector, and applied it to the supply of clothing and textiles to the UK. The results presented in Section 4 have been validated through extensive stakeholder dialogue and appear sensible, although it is impossible to estimate how complete this set of suggestions is, until time has passed. This section attempts to reect in two ways on the approach that has been proposed: how effective was the methodology? Can the results of this study be used to anticipate useful strategies in other sectors? 5.1. Assessment of the methodology The challenge of providing a methodology to consider wide-scale change to a sector is to nd a means of analysis that is tractable e that can be completed within reasonable time e but which is sufciently comprehensive. A sector,

such as that for clothing and textiles, is sufciently complex to be beyond the comprehension of an individual, so a comprehensive view depends on collaboration across the sector. Broadly, the approach offered here e to map the sector, identify an inuences diagram, create scenarios based on case study products, analyse them using the triple bottom line graphic equaliser and present draft analysis to stakeholders for feedback e appears to be a sensible solution. The experience of the study on clothing and textiles supply to the UK has emphasised the importance of the stakeholder feedback e particularly once the draft analysis was complete, as this proved to be the trigger for releasing crucial expert insights, often when the draft report presented an opposite to a conventional (or convenient) view. Future studies should certainly be structured to ensure sufcient time is allocated to gather and process such feedback. The economic analysis of the sector is obviously simplistic e but appeared useful in predicting major effects on National income of the scenarios for all countries involved. Calculation of an operating surplus for the UK proved a valuable way to indicate the likelihood of a particular scenario being adopted e for instance, in showing the signicance of novel production technologies in facilitating a more localised production system. While such aggregated national measures are obviously crude, they seem more realistic than attempting a more microeconomic analysis which would require many more assumptions to provide sufcient data. The environmental analysis e as with all properly conducted LCA e was arduous. While not a universal solution, one observation from the results was that in virtually all the scenarios, the three environmental indicators used in the graphic equaliser were highly correlated e suggesting that a simpler measure of energy use would in this case have given a similar quality of information with less effort. This arises specically for this sector as most energy is used in the form of electricity, and most waste is assumed to be incinerated e so mining waste dominates the waste category, and most non-climate change indicators are largely related to burning fossil fuel. The exception to this simplied approach for the clothing case was in the signicance of toxicity in cotton growing e which required detailed analysis, and was data intensive. No general rule can be applied to simplifying the analysis, but probably there is by now sufcient analysis of most sectors to allow short-cuts to be taken e analysing only those effects which are known to have a large impact. The quantied social analysis was restricted to an estimate of employment e because of the difculty of providing quantitative predictions of any other measure. With a much more complex micro-economic model, it might be possible to predict the impact of investment in training on working conditions e but this would require vastly more detail in the analysis, and would again be highly dependent on assumptions. Evidence that this broad approach can be translated to a different situation is provided by Russell [3] who has used the same methodology to consider the effect of localising production of two case study products on the island of Jamaica. Although that requires a regional rather than sectoral study,

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Efficiency gains Material

Substitute Reduce use of alternative materials auxiliaries

Reduction in flow
Customer support and education

Production
Process Reduce use of Reduce batch sizes efficiencies auxiliaries Durability in place of fashion

Distribution
Localise production Tariffs, subsidies and quotas New business models

Use
Best practice Reduced impact Smart in use auxiliaries functions

Disposal
Incinerate rather than landfill Recycle materials

Second-hand purchasing

Eco-taxation

Fig. 6. Template of candidate solutions for large-scale change in other sectors.

a big picture scenario analysis is similarly required, and apparently gives insightful results. 5.2. Anticipating the outcomes for other sectors Development of the methodology presented here, and the associated analysis of the UK clothing and textiles sector required ve person-year work. Is it possible to anticipate the candidate solutions that might apply to other sectors? Broadly, two categories of change have been explored in this paper: those which aim to reduce the ow of new material entering the sector; those which aim to make the processes within the sector as it is, more efcient. These solutions are summarised in Fig. 6, which may prove a useful template for future studies of wide-scale change in other sectors. Acknowledgements The analysis of the clothing and textiles sector described in Sections 3 and 4 of the paper was funded by the UK landll tax credit scheme administered by Biffaward through RSWT with a 10% contribution from the UK clothes and food retailer Marks and Spencer. The work of Suzana Russell was supported by the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission. The Delphi study mentioned in Section 3.1 was completed by Marisa de Brito who worked on the rst half of this project. Appendix. A brief introduction to the clothing and textiles sector The clothing and textiles sector represents about 7% of world cross-border trade, leads to sales of over US$ one

trillion and employs over 26 million people worldwide just in production [37]. Production in the sector is dominated by Asian countries, with over one million people employed in each of China (7.5 million), Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Indonesia, but with signicant activity virtually in every country e including more than four million in the EU and Mediterranean region and two million in North and South America [38]. Products in the sector are predominantly made from either cellulosic materials such as cotton or polyester, with one third of world cotton exports from the USA [39], aided by government subsidies. The sector has been subject to many international trade agreements, most well known being the quotas limiting exports (Multi-Fibre Agreement 1974e1994 and Agreement on Textiles and Clothing 1995e 2004) which were phased out since 1st January 2005. The removal of these quotas has led to a marked drop in prices in the UK, while spending has increased, so UK consumers have increased the number of garments they have bought by one third over four years. The clothing and textiles sector leads to a ow of around 3.2 million tonnes of materials through the UK, of which 0.9 million tonnes are exported, 1.8 million tonnes are sent to landll, and the remaining 0.6 million tonnes are split between recycling, and emissions to air following incineration. The major impacts of the sector according to the triple bottom line of sustainability are as follows.  Environment: energy use associated with laundry (particularly of cotton products), operating production equipment, and production of materials; use of toxic chemicals, particularly in cotton production; release of chemicals in waste water, particularly from pre-treatment of bres, dyeing, nishing and laundry; solid waste as illustrated above.  Social: employees in the clothing sector, who are generally relatively unskilled and receive a low income, may have precarious contracts, be vulnerable to abuse from employers, and often do not have proper representation. Leading retailers are working with rst tier suppliers to develop codes of practice for employment, but it can be difcult to impose these on subcontractors.  Economic: for developed economics, shifting production to other countries has not had a signicant economic impact, as the largest gross margins occur at the wholesale and retail end of the supply chain. However, for developing countries, the sector may be the major source of export earnings e with Cambodia, Haiti, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Lesotho all receiving more than 70% of export earnings from the sector [40].

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