Indias Foreign Policy and Look East Diplomacy: An Analysis of Indias strategic interests in Myanmar vis--vis China and

developmental vision for Northeast India

MPhil Research Synopsis

Submitted to Professor Pushpesh Pant

Submitted by Mirza Zulfiqur Rahman MPhil Candidate, Diplomacy and Disarmament Division Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University

Background: Myanmars strategic location at the crossroad of Southeast Asia and South Asia provides it an opportunity to play a significant role in the regional geopolitics. Huge availability of energy resources in Myanmar adds an economic dimension in its strategic significance. Myanmars position, as a zone of convergence between Indias Look East and Chinas Look South Policy, makes it a key factor in the regional foreign policy agendas of both the Asian giants of India and China. Therefore, engagement with Myanmar becomes inevitable for both India and China. However, the nature of the engagement of India and China vis--vis Myanmar depends on their domestic political scenario and their respective foreign policy objectives in Myanmar. Indias Engagement in Myanmar Historically, relations between India and Myanmar have seen many ups and downs. After independence Burmese leadership adopted the policy of close and harmonious relations with India. Nehru and U. Nu had shared understandings over various regional and global issues. However, Myanmar in 1962 after the military coup came under military rule and due to General Ne Wins policy of A Burmese way to Socialism and Myanmars unfriendly stand on the Sino-Indian conflict 1962, India-Myanmar relationship became strained. However Myanmar never completely sidelined India and avoided being identified too closely with China. Therefore, during the regime of Ne Win the nature of India-Myanmar relationship was stagnant but cordial on the whole. Ne Win also visited India in 1980. However, during Indira Gandhis tenure, India was neutral and disinterested in Myanmar, because a commitment to democratic values was prioritized ahead of security concerns in Indian foreign policy agenda towards Myanmar. This policy of idealism was also continued by the Rajiv Gandhi regime. When the SLORC (State Law and order Restoration Council) assumed power in 1988, India strongly criticize Myanmars new military regime. New Delhi also offered refuge to anti SLORC dissidents and openly sided with pro-democracy activists during the 1990s decade.

Having taken an insight of the strategic imperatives of the engagement of both India and China vis--vis Myanmar it can be argued that due to its critical geographical location, Myanmar becomes an important component of the regional foreign policy agendas of both India and China. Thus, both the countries are bound to engage with Myanmar irrespective of its domestic political scenario. While given the trust-deficit between India and China interests of both the countries clash in Myanmar, it also offer the opportunity for both India and China to cooperate in a sub regional framework including their peripheral regions. Therefore, the proposed study aims to make a comparative examination of the nature of engagement of both India and China vis--vis Myanmar with elaborating the both conflicting and cooperative dimensions the country offers to India and China and examine if their interests coincide or collide. It is also important to examine if Myanmar has any strategic motive to play one power against the other power. A speech by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Dispur, Assam on 21 November 2004, at the opening of the new secretariat in Dispur, reflected the much awaited inclusion of the Northeastern region in Indias overall Look East Policy. This seemed to be a turning point in the attitude of the central government towards the Northeastern states of India, which had long been ignored in the LEP paradigm. This turn in attitude can be attributed to a variety of reasons. The genuine intent of developing the Northeastern region by the central government can be one likely reason, emanating from the inclusion of the Northeast development concern as an important component of the LEP in the late 1990s. On the other hand, the more likely reason for this shift could be more strategic than for mere developmental purposes. This can be attributed to the China factor, as India sees China as a principal source of insecurity and a potential threat to its strategic interests in its proximate region. Therefore, closer economic ties with East and Southeast Asia through Northeast India are considered viable means to limit Chinas influence and balance its expanding power in the region. The genesis of Indias LEP can be traced back to the early 1990s when this term gained coinage under Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. The question however remains as to

how the Northeastern states fit into the LEP. We must, at the outset, make a clear distinction between the ordinary developmental policies for the Northeast and the emergence of the LEP as a way of initiating developmental policies in the Northeast. The ordinary developmental policies for the Northeast over the years have been conceived as a component of centre-state relations with 10 per cent of all central ministry funds being earmarked for Northeastern region with carryover provisions in every budget ever since 1996. The initiatives by the central government from 2004 onwards can be dubbed as a continuation of the Northeast policy with a new development mantra or paradigm. At the centre of this new paradigm of development is Indias LEP. The 1990s saw a gradual increase in central governments aid towards the Northeast amidst the growing secessionist movements in the region. While the Mizoram insurgent movement was successfully resolved with the formation of the Mizo National Front government in 1987, insurgencies in Nagaland, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya and Tripura continued to rage on. The central government continued its policy of grants-in-aid to the Northeastern states which was in reality a policy of control by appeasement, thereby pumping huge amounts of money into the states. This pumping in of money was not backed by adequate policies of infrastructure development or capacity building, but rather consisted of grants and internal security infrastructure building. As a result, these mindless grants gave rise to a lot of corruption in the Northeast. Mizoram, which emerged as the model state of an insurgency to peace transition, could not benefit from this huge resource inflow, particularly due to the lack of developmental policies and initiatives. Because of the absence of such policies, a lot of money meant for development was unused and returned to the Central Government until a carry over provision was introduced in 1996, also stating that 10 per cent of all central ministry funds should be allocated to the Northeast. This carryover clause allows unused funds to be transferred to the next budget and was needed because of the slow usage of funds which made the process of development of infrastructure and capacity building dreadfully slow and in some cases, non-existent.

The trend of grants-in-aid to the Northeastern states after 2004 saw a change as the Northeast was included in the overall Look East Policy. In recent years, many discussions and seminars on the Look East Policy have taken place with a focus on the Northeastern region both in New Delhi and in the Northeast. This aims to bring Indias Foreign Policy closer to the people of the Northeast, and enunciate strategies that would be pragmatic and directed towards the development of the region as a whole, given its geographical proximity to Southeast Asian countries. In fact capital cities such as Guwahati, Imphal and Shillong have become the hub of such events and discussions based on the LEP in the region. The investment fairs conducted by the government and business lobbies have huge prospects, as they can boost trade and development. Promotion of the Northeast as a safe recipient for investment also took place outside of the region, in events such as the North-East India Trade and Investment Opportunities Week held in Bangkok in October 2007. In addition, there were a slew of announcements of developmental projects in many states such as Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. These projects were aimed at developing infrastructure and connectivity in the Northeastern region with to the aim of ultimately linking it with Southeast Asian countries. The 2004 India-Asean car rally at the inauguration of which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made the above-quoted speech is seen by many commentators as the turning point when the Indian government made it clear that the Northeastern states would be an important component in its LEP. The car rally had started from Guwahati in Assam and passed through the states of Nagaland and Manipur. It was received by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Vientiane in Laos during the Asean Summit before the rally culminated in Singapore. This was seen as a great success and a boost to the idea of connectivity from Indias Northeast to Southeast Asia. An expressway linking Thailand with the Northeast was mooted immediately but little progress has been seen since then. Border road connectivity was accorded high priority in states such as Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. The Assam Government has listed as one of its achievements in the year 2007 the opening of the Stilwell Road on the Indian side. The Special Accelerated Road Development Project for

the Northeast, in which the Border Roads Organization (BRO) has been engaged over the past few years, is an indicator of the central governments policies in improving connectivity in the Northeastern region. This project which enjoys high priority reflects the security angle to Indias concerns in the face of Chinas growing infrastructure and connectivity north of the Line of Actual Control separating Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet. Hence, BRO was recently withdrawn from other projects in the country and dedicated to this specific projects fast and effective implementation. Over the years, the Northeastern region has evolved from a component of Centre-State relations to an important part of the Look East Policy. This transition from insensitivity and neglect to conscious incorporation of the Northeast in the LEP has happened over many nuances in policy making.

Literature Review: A comparative study of the engagement of India and China in Myanmar requires a thorough review of the existing literature on foreign policies of both countries towards Myanmar and various factors involved in it. For this purpose, the review of literature has broadly discussed the available literature on evolution of the bilateral relations between India-Myanmar and China-Myanmar, changing dynamics of relationships and various strategic imperatives that led both India and China to follow a policy of engagement vis-vis Myanmar. Moreover, the review of literature aims to examine the role of Myanmar with both the aspects of conflict and cooperation that it tenders to both India and China. In order to have a sound understanding about the engagement of India and China in Myanmar, it is essential to understand the difference in the nature of the engagement policies, if any, of both the countries vis--vis Myanmar. Here it will be better to start with separate assessment of the genesis of a paradigm shifts in the policies of both India and China which paved the way for their respective engagement policies towards Myanmar in the years when the relations among them had numerous facets and turns.

In case of China, elucidating the shifts, Baladas Ghoshal (1994) in his article Trends in China-Burma Relations states that the shifts in the Chinese Burma Policy from 1978 onwards and the Burmese reciprocal cordiality prepared the ground for the gradual rapprochement between the two countries. He further argues that a final and more fundamental shift in Chinas Burma Policy was witnessed in the 1988 when China withdrew its policy of providing material support to Communist Party of Burma (CPB) which was involved in a direct struggle with the government of Myanmar. Although, this article is very significant to understand the implications of the Sino-Burmese entente for the regional security and strategic scenario in South and Southeast Asia, it gives a sketchy analysis of the push and pull factors behind the various shifts in Chinas policy vis--vis Burma and therefore not seen as a very comprehensive study on the issue. His later writings on the various issues of Myanmar and its engagement with India and China have also bee examined, but in a nutshell, this contentious aspect remains unanswered. John W. Graver (2000) in his book Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century dedicated a full detailed chapter named Burma: the Backdoor to China to analyze the factors which laid the foundation of Chinas policy of strategic engagement with Myanmar. The chapter starts with an elaboration of the Chinas supporting act to the Communist Party of Burma during Maos period and later on it points out the shift in the Chinas strategic vision towards Myanmar after the arrival of Deng Xiaoping. The chapter emphasizes that Mao followed a dual track approach in its relations with Myanmar, first track was the development of normal state-to-state relations with the government of Burma and second track was focused on encouraging fraternal relations between Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ruling China and Communist Party of Burma (CPB). The Wa tribe in the Myanmar-China border was the communist link. The author identifies that this particular balance between these two tracks at any point in time was a major characteristics of Chinese policy towards Burma. To answer the question of why Mao followed this dual track policy, he argues that the first track of developing state-to state relations with Burma was focused to keep Burma away from the sphere of influence of any hostile power, particularly the presence of KMT forces and

CIA covert operations against China from the Shan state of Myanmar. On the other hand, second track of providing support to the CPB insurgency, he linked it with Maos decision to support CPB in the context of intensifying struggle between Chinese and Soviet communist parties over the direction of the world communist movements. In his book Graver also takes into accounts the factors which led China to withdraw its support from the CPB and opt for a policy of strategic engagement between the two countries at governmental level; such as the development of the economic relations between Yunnan and Myanmar and seek access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. However, to make a better understanding of his analysis and to place it in an overall context, other sources substantiated with the factual details are needed and must be studied further. Donald M Seekins (1997) in his article Burma-China Relations: Playing with Fire extensively discussed the implications of Chinas strategic economic foray into Myanmar after 1990. To explain the consequences of increasing Chinese influence in Myanmar he cites the examples of Sinicization of Upper Myanmar and development of Mandalay as a high priced China town with an influx of immigrant Chinese population from the Yunnan and other provinces of China. He further mentioned that how bilateral trade between China and Burma increased manifold in the late years of 1990s but finally he characterizes the economic relations between China and Burma as equivalent to the relations between a European metropolis and an Asian colony during the early 20th century, which was characterized by a general context of colonialism and imperialism. In a special issue of Adelphi Paper named Myanmar Foreign Policy: Domestic Influences and International Implications Jurgen Haacke (2006) elaborates the converging political views of China and Myanmar after the incidents of suppression of pro-democracy activists in 1988 in Myanmar and in 1989 in Tiananmen Square of China respectively. In his analysis he emphasizes on the fact that China emerged as a most trusted friend of Myanmar after 1988 and contributed greatly to the regime and growing stability in the early years of the SLORCs rule. China has even protected Myanmars interests in the United Nations Security Council several times by exercising veto against the resolutions proposed by the US and the West to impose sanctions on Myanmars

military junta. However, Stephanie Kleine-Ablbrandt and Andrew Small (2008) in their article Chinas New Dictatorship Diplomacy: Is Beijing Parting with Pariahs points out a slight shift in Chinas Burma policy which is coupled with Chinas changing approach to deal with the pariah states like Burma, North Korea and Sudan. Although China is not going to relegate its economic and strategic interests in its policy in dealing with the pariah states but it is trying to evolve more sophisticated means to assist the process of positive political development concerning these states so that they could gain a level of legitimacy such as the six party talks with North Korea. In case of Myanmar too, despite rejecting the proposals of sanctions against Myanmar, China supported a statement from the UNSC deploring the juntas use of violence against peaceful demonstrators. Moreover, China pushed the Myanmarese government to receive the UN special envoy and grant him access to the Aung San Suu kyi. However, the author duo admits that it is not possible for China to go very far to exert pressure over the junta in Myanmar, given the opposition of the hardliners in Chinese leadership to such policies of intervention abroad. As far as understanding of the fundamentals of the Indias engagement with Myanmar is concerned, study of the French researcher Renaud Egreteaus (2003) book, Wooing the Generals Indias New Burma Policy, is a must read. The book contains a comprehensive and well researched literature on the evolution of the relationship between India and Myanmar from its very beginning to the Indias new policy of Constructive Engagement vis--vis Myanmar. The focus of the book is more on changing strategic equations in the South and Southeast Asia and how the China factor forced India to be constructively engaged with Myanmar. However, the recent bilateral imperatives, such as energy cooperation and border trade, do not occupy an important place in his analysis. Sudhir Devare (2006) in his book India and South East Asia: Towards Security Convergence provides a chapter on strategic importance of Myanmar for India. In this chapter he considers Myanmar as a challenging frontier for Indian foreign policy from all the perspectives of security whether traditional or non traditional. The author identifies

Myanmar as a link between India and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and suggested that political stability in Myanmar is in the interest of India. However some broad questions, Which type of government in Myanmar would serve Indias interests better, democratically elected or military? remain unanswered in it. To develop an understanding about the Indian and Chinese engagement in Myanmar it is also necessary to analyze the Myanmars response to the respective engagement policies of India and China. An article by Helen James (2004), Myanmar International Relations Strategy: The Search for Security gives a broad understanding of the various determining factors of Myanmar foreign policy agenda and its domestic political and economic implications. This article attempts to elaborate on the fact that due to the continuing sanctions by western powers, Myanmar is left with no option but to pursue its foreign policy objectives in Asia and balance profitably and strategically between China and India. This has helped create the sense of an imminent Sino-Indian rivalry in Myanmar. Definition, Rationale and Scope of the Study: Having reviewed the literature on the evolution of the Indian and Chinese engagement in Myanmar, in order to elaborate the wide strategic compulsions of the respective engagement policies of India and China in Myanmar, the proposed study focuses on the Geopolitics of Indian and Chinese Engagement in Myanmar. The review of the existing literature reveals that extensive literature is available on the engagement policies of both India and China vis--vis Myanmar but separately. Therefore, there is a need to make a comparative review of the respective engagement policies of India and China vis--vis Myanmar so that the results regarding the role of Myanmar in the regional strategic dynamics between India and China and its impact on the political developments in Myanmar can be obtained. In order to delineate the engagement of India and China in Myanmar, the study would take into account the period from where a significant policy shift towards Myanmar can be seen in the Indian and Chinese foreign policy discourse. In case of Chinese engagement in Myanmar, the evolution of engagement phase

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seemingly, starts ever since China adopted a policy of Good Neighborliness under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping. Likewise, to define the Indian engagement in Myanmar, the study would mainly focus on the period since India opted for the diplomatic pattern of constructive engagement in its foreign policy design vis--vis Myanmar. Furthermore, available literature on the Indian and Chinese engagement in Myanmar seems inadequate on some accounts and some deeper questions remain unanswered in accordance with the emerging trends and changing realities. These questions are related to the comparative assessment of the nature of Indian and Chinese engagement in Myanmar, continuation of military rule in Myanmar and its implications for India and China; pivotal role of Myanmar as a bridge for evolving the structures of economic cooperation between the sub regions of India and China. Thus, it is needed to review all the aspects of Indian and Chinese engagement in Myanmar with a comparative perspective. The proposed study will try to bridge the existing gaps, bringing about a critical understanding of the dynamics of China and Indias engagement in Myanmar. The study will bring out the dynamics of Indias Look East Policy and the question of the development of Northeast India and the accumulated failures of New Delhi to give a genuine and workable vision for development of Northeast India through the Look East Policy paradigm. This requires a grand connected vision of Indias external dealings with Myanmar and its internal policies related to Northeast India.

Research Problem/Question and Hypothesis: Research Problem/Question: Why do Indian foreign policy objectives and the Look East Diplomacy seem to face enormous hurdles in Myanmar and compete and collide with Chinese strategic interests, and not cooperate and compliment each other; and why has the Look East Policy and

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overall vision not been able to bridge the development deficit seen in Northeast India? Hypotheses: The scramble for resources in resource rich Myanmar has got intense, and as the growing energy needs of India compound amidst the current global energy crunch, India see intense competition to their strategic and economic interests in Myanmar. Both China and India see each others presence in Myanmar as a counter to their respective strategic and economic interests in the country and the larger region, because each country feels that Myanmar constitutes their natural sphere of influence, and each is trying to impede on the other by their respective processes of engagement with Myanmar. India has envisioned the Look East Policy towards acting as a means to bridge the development deficit seen in Northeast India, but has failed to address the underlying problems which have affected the Northeastern states of India for decades on end.

Research Methods: The study would both be analytical and descriptive in nature, and in order to meaningfully explain the knowledge gained, the study is required to be dealt with theoretical application and methodological rigour. To successfully identify the answers of the research problem/question related to the topic, the study would be relied upon both primary and the secondary sources and rely on reviewing extensive existing literature. The study would begin with an understanding of the research theme evolved from the help of secondary sources such as books, articles and news reports. However, given the contemporary and dynamic nature of the topic, the information gathered by the secondary sources needs to be substantiated with the help of the primary sources to make the study more authentic. For this purpose, primary sources mainly the interviews of the government officials particularly diplomats who have served in Myanmar and

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academicians and researchers having knowledge regarding Myanmar would be used in the study. Sino-Indian relations will also be assessed through interview of various diplomats and academicians following the trajectory of bilateral relations closely. The reports of concerned ministries in countries, press releases, joint statements published by the government of respective countries shall also be cited as primary sources. Moreover, given the empirical nature of some parts of the study like current status of various projects, problems in border-trade, comparative assessment of the linkages between the border areas of India-Myanmar and Myanmar-China demands a sound understanding of the existing realities. Thus field trips of concerned areas seem essential to complete the study and these need to be conducted primarily in Myanmar, assessing the nature of interaction of Myanmar with Chinese and Indian diplomats and officials, and trying to decipher the thought-process and the orientations of the ruling class and government officials of Myanmar in its interaction with China and India respectively. The various dimensions including political, economic and strategic of China and India in Myanmar would be assessed from all three points of view, and domestic and cultural roots would be examined, especially assessing people-to-people interactions.

Tentative Chapters:

Chapter 1: Introduction The first chapter will outline a background to set the stage for analyzing the politicostrategic imperatives of the respective engagement policies of India and China with Myanmar, and analyze the military juntas policy of engagement with these nations. This will outline the Look East Diplomacy of India and highlight the vision for the development of Northeast India within the Look East Policy.

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Chapter 2: Indias Look East Diplomacy: Myanmars Domestic predicaments and Indias perception It will be discussed in this chapter in detail that how India perceive the domestic politics of Myanmar. The second chapter will scrutinize the Indian over the issue of democratic transition in Myanmars domestic polity. Chapter 3: Role of Look East Policy in the development of Northeast India This chapter will take into account the overall vision and role of the Look East Policy towards bridging the development deficit seen in Northeast India. Chapter 4: A Comparison of the Economic and Security Engagement of India with Myanmar Elaborating the status and objectives of Indian economic engagement in Myanmar this chapter will make an attempt to present a holistic outlook of Indias economic engagement and interests in Myanmar including energy stakes and overall gains. This chapter will also analyze Indias security cooperation with Myanmar with regard to insurgency in Northeast India and huge flows of arms and narcotics smuggling. Chapter 5: Conclusion The concluding chapter would try to answer the research question and bring forward the debates on conflict and cooperation between China and India in Myanmar, and further analyze the road ahead for a prospective constructive policy for the vision to be successful for the genuine development of Northeast India. It will analyze the Look East Diplomacy in its overall strategic and developmental dividends over the years.

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